Omis's Unlucky Thirteen-The Game Is Over!

[spam_master]

Vote:junglefever

Every day we don't lynch him is another day scum/SK survives.

All I know is that he's hiding something. He's not a cop. He could be a vig or the doc, but he feels like he doesn't want anyone to look at him, and number's say hes most likely mafia or indy.

I put out my first post of the day, I voted on jungle day one and no compelling evidence has convinced me to focus on anyone else. I use hyperbole in a joking manner to overstae my confidence and then state my reasoning for the vote.

This is the first post were i state my suspicions of jungle.

This post will be the subject of question 1.

I would like to vouch for Junglefever that he is not scum. Sure, at times he does ask some n00bish questions, but I can tell you he's not Mafia. So far, he's just stating the obvious, which is true: this is the real 1st day.

Mento - A cop or a doctor is such a common role, that both could be in this game. The real trick is seeing who is what.

Right now, I don't really have any to vote. Neither Yaya or Smashbot gives a reason not enough of a reason to vote on them, mainly cause I've yet to see a mafia-ish move from them.

This is the very next post.

I have bolded the language I found highly suspicious.

He states that jungle is not mafia, based on the fact that He Knows he isn't.

At this point he could have countered my feeling that jungle is mafia with his feeling that he is town, but he makes what I see as a move to quickly crush any debate by referencing his Knowledge.

This post will be the subject of question 2.

You obviously don't understand how I work, but what you just said sends of flares all over the place. I don't need my gut to derive these possibilities. Based on that comment I have to think that one or more of these is true.

1.Junglefever is your RL friend and you have talked to him about your role or this game which is a huge no-no baring options 2, 3, and 4.

2. You are both Mason together. You'll most likely claim this option as it is the best of the 5 barring option 5. However, if you both claim mason one of you will probably have to die to prove it, especially because this is a relatively small game so a mason group is not assured in comparison to the likelihood of option 3.

3. You are both scum and you are ********.

4. One of you is a cult leader and the leader picked up the other one last night. Even, I don't think this one will happen. To few people for a cult.

5. I misunderstood your comment entirely. This is impossible as I am never wrong.

So buddy...go ahead and pick one.

I'm exceptionally confused by rockin's choice of words and I enumerate the repercussions hos word choice had, 3/5's of which give him easy outs. I don't even mention the possibility that he is the cop for fear that he is an imbecile and will say that he is the cop.

I am not phishing for anything, I am mearly stating the logical conclusions to his public statements that everyone could have drawn.

This post will be the subject of question 3.

I would have to say option 5 spam... He seems to be closer to stating an opinion strongly than any of those. I agree Jungle doesn't seem like scum so far, and to go on a gut feeling like you are after having already lynched a townie once may not be the best idea. I think we should wait until we get something solid to go on.(And yes, that means I think Rockin's statement was ambiguous enough to not give us anything to lynch someone on. If it's option 1, Omis? will step in, and the other possibilities seem unlikely by in large except for 5)

Mentos states that he believes he is stating an opinion rather than knowledge, and that after lynching a townie day one might not be the best idea. He also states that we require something more solid.

This post will be the basis for questions 4 and 5.

Oh I agree entirely on that Spam, the way people say things means a lot. The first time I read through that post I actually felt the same way, and was leaning toward him being maf and trying to cover. But when I looked at it a second time, he is using strong words, but the tone of them when I reread it made it seem non mafia-esque. A mason group is very much a possibility, but the tone/vibe I get from that comment made me lean more towards something town-sided, whether it be a mason group or him just way overstating what he was trying to convey.

Mentos states that while he feels the vibe was somewhat misleading that he thinks that it was overall townish.

Spam, let me state by the fact that we do not know each other in RL. I DO know Junglefever, as we've played two Mafia games so far (Tomafia 3, and Evil Eye's No Man's game. This being our third time together). So this nullifies no 1. Even if we did, I would never break a rule such as this no matter how tempting it was. Why break a rule on a game that you want to enjoy?

I'm not gonna go over with no. 2, only because it's a role claim, and it's too early to do such thing (I reccomand Day 3 at least before we do that). Same thing with 4, as it involves role claiming.

3 I'm not even gonna answer cause that's stupid. >>

I feel that 5 would be the best option, since I'm saying from MY gut feeling that Junglefever is townie. Besides asking a question or two, he hasn't done anything Mafia-ish IMO.

I have highlighted the part I find suspicious.

Rockin evaluates my options and decides that option 5 would be the best option fo rhim to pick. This aggravates me because he knows which option is true, so his claim that he is picking the best option implies, at least to me, that he is not picking the true option.

This post will be the topic of questions 6.

Actually, I'm pretty positive. It's more of a confidence then a gut, seeing as I've stated some things in terms of that.

macman asks what rockins original post meant, and rockin basicly states that he has information outside mear conjecture.

This directly contradicts his choice option 5, and confirms that my initial conclusion that rockin has an outside source of information of jungle's role is true.

This post will be the topic of question 7.

so basically you are confirming that either you are a mason, or you have some other type of role that reveals the roles of everyone else to you?

Macman calls him on his claim of implied outside information.

This will be the topic of question 8.

Hmm.

Mac is role-fishing, and I don't like it at all...

Macman: You are aware that fishing for roles a a massive scumtell, are you not?

Yaya states that he feels macman is phishing

This isn't really rolefishing, it's more like facepalming.

I state my feeling that macman made his post calling rockin on his outside information wiht the purpose of asking the rhetorical question "are you ******** rockin?" and less in the sense of role phishing.

true, but its still suspiscious. We don't want a role claim of any sort this early. Having one person claim throws suspicion on others who don't claim, so the doc and cop and any other power roles we have are forced to claim and outed far to early. So knock it off man!

Ronike states that he feels a roleclaim is not beneficial.

This post will be the topic of question 9

i don't get it.

and i'm aware of what I was doing. I asked rockin if he just had a strong guess, or if he was positive that fever was mafia. Instead of saying it was a strong guess he said "It's more of a confidence then a gut, seeing as I've stated some things in terms of that." Any mafia would be able to pinpoint that and than take advantage of it. They would assume he had an important role and kill him. I also believe Rockin himself is aware of this. Junglefever also was not in much danger of being lynched at the time so I do not know why rockin felt that it was necessary to put himself out there in the way that he did.

I just felt that if he wanted to be so obvious he might as well have completely come out with it so that he could actually convince people why he and jungle are not mafia instead of us having to just take his word for us so that even if he did get killed at night we could assume junglefever was not mafia and we could increase our chances of catching scum.

I don't condone role claiming this early either.

and yaya why didn't you just vote for me if you knew role-fishing was a massive scum-tell. In nowhere mafia you were quick to vote for me when I didn't roleclaim, so why are you being so hesitant now?

Macman sum up his feelings on the matter regarding rokcin and jungle, and also states mild suspicion for yaya.

Personally, I feel almost the exact same way as macman, that if rockin isn't mafia he is totally screwed, and that knowing whether or not jungle can be trusted is a huge advantage to the town.

This post will be the topic of question 10

That's equivalent to blaming the quiet kid in the corner for stealing your lunchbox.

Furthermore, either Rockin is defending jungle, who is ALSO scum, or spam_master is trying to get somebody lynched BECAUSE he's scum.

Vote: Spam_Master

You're a little aggressive in your pursuit of lynch-hood.

Smash defends himself and then accuses myself of pursuing a lynch with to much fervor.

This post will be the topic of question 11

Ugh, this is SPMII all over again. Remember our argument back them smashbot? See any parrallels?

I think jungle is scum, not rockin.

But, its important for me to pursue rockin on a statement that is obviously fishy because if he knows definitively that jungle is not mafia then I need to look for new leads.

However the longer this conversation goes on the more I think jungle is scum and rockin has either been fooled in some way or is scum as well. The whole situation mirrors what agentli did so much that I can't help it.

I've stated a million times that if I make an argument I do so with the belief that I am 100% right until I am proven wrong. I am arguably the most aggressive player on smash boards when I think I have found scum.

I remind everyone that I am voting for jungle not rockin, but that rockin has made a statement that is plainly suspicious and that I feel requires investigating.

Also, the people who are talking about this being a roleclaim are confused on why a roleclaim is great for mafia early game.

A role claim early game provides the mafia with a great opportunity to lie because there are so many roles they can pick, and they can nightkill in confidence of the claimed roles because they are one of the few roles with reason to lie.

However whats happening her isn't a roleclaim, it is a role force. Using evidence we have determined a select number of roles which rockin must be. He has no chance to lie because he isn't claiming anything. This is how, in theory, you are supposed to determine who is mafia. You determine what someone must be, then based on who you know must be what determine who does not fit. Whoever does not fit must be mafia.

I state my opinion on the difference between a roleclaim and a role force. and the advantages and disadvantages of both.

I agree that it's not good to be pushing Rockin like this. For all we know he is the cop and knows Jungle isn't maf because of that. Since it's been pushed so far, it's very likely he'll die tonight anyway, but if that's the case the last thing we wanted to do was make him into a mafia target>_> I'd also like to say that I am a bit suspicious of you at this point spam. Not enough to put a vote down just yet, but you said Jungle before we had pretty much anything at all to go on, and when he was defended you went after Rockin to a point of "either state your role or I assume you're mafia." Like I said, it's not quite enough for me to put a vote down yet, but the way you jumped to Jungle right away makes me want to keep an eye on you. Regardless, I still don't think Rockin or Jungle are mafia, so I'm not going to vote until I find something that's proof enough to vote on.

Mentos states his feeling son rockin and states suspicion for me.

I find the highlighted areas contradictory.

If he's going to die tonight, which I believe he will unless the doc saves, then he will most likely die by the mafias hands. I think that he was a target from the moment he said he knew something more about jungle then everyone else.

Spam i'm really curious what this hunch you're talking about is on. Rockin's word choice wasn't the best, I am aware, but even so I don't know why that would even increase your confidence. What besides your gut feeling makes you think I'm mafia.

Yaya, I think a no lynch isn't too bad of an option right now, but I think we need to deliberate a little more. I'm not 100% sure about spam because he is so quick to jump to a conclusion on nothing, but it's not enough to vote on.

Smashbot, you have to understand why you are suspiciosu, you have been very quiet, and inactivity is usually the sign of someone not wanting to be noticed. its not enough to vote on just something to think about.


menthos, you are right, rockin has made it seem like i had an important role, so i'm most likely the next to die . But until then i think basic first day strategies needs to be used. Pressure caused by voting and not to no lynch...thoughts on that?

Jungle asks questions of myself, yaya, smashbot, and mentos.

Personally, my vote on jungle was little more than a pressure vote, which jungle later mentions as a good strategy,

______________________________

In conclusion, I personally feel that neither rockin nor jungle will be lynched today, the evidence isn't strong enough in either's favor, but that their is clearly either a one way or two way connections between the two, which will be very important to remember late in the game.

Right now I have to go to class but later in the day I will post a series of questions, as referenced above, on the matter. Keep in mind that these questions are for personal use ONLY. I think that widespread answering of these questions would be to beneficial to the mafia but on a personal basis they will help better understand the situation.

P.S: F*** YA! Wall of Text FTW!

 

[Ronike]

My idiot roommate must have downloaded something illegal on our wireless internet, under my name, and now I'm having my internet quarantined apparently, though I can see no difference. So until I get this resolved, I may not be able to get on. Just letting you all know.

 

[#HBC | Mac]

spam_master just basically said everything i wanted to say, just alot better than i could. I was actually starting to get lost in the conversation but he cleared **** up for me.

Rockin i want you to say something iono what, but I want to hear your thoughts.

 

[#HBC | Mac]

and omis can you give us an update.

 

[mentosman8]

Spam, excellent post. Puts everything together in an easy to read way. I'll give more insight on my thoughts on some of it a little bit later(depending on when I have to be to work I may not have a chance to until tonight). I will say one thing, about where you said was a contradiction. The second part was past tense, as in he is now a massive target for maf, but from hindsight if he actually is an important role we shouldn't have labored the fact so much. Probably could have phrased it better, but definitely not a contradiction.

 

[Mr.Lombardi34]

Okay, first of all I think that this is an excellent situation. We are getting tons of information just by talking, which is exactly the idea of Day 2. Second, I agree with Spam here, we need to keep questioning Rockin and Jungle. Spam's wall o' text was great, and Rockin's responses should help us a lot.

I don't think that we should vote for anybody, much less a no lynch, yet. We need to let Day 2 play out more in order to make an informed decision.

 

[#HBC | Mac]

i hate you lombo =[

 

[Rockin]

Okay, time to do this.

Thing was the fact that JungleFever has been pinpointed several times in past Mafia games here. If it wasn't for him asking n00bish questions, it's just him not putting enough information on the table. And while, it can be understandable for Mafia's/ SKs to play this, it doesn't mean it has enough weight to lynch a person IMO. I felt that many would jump on Junglfever and ride the bandwagon on him, so I was just defending him. Now it's true, I worded on his defense wrong. I didn't want neither him or me a big Mafia target. ><;;

This is in terms of question 3: Basically, I felt if I try to pick neither and word out my own option ('option 6'), it may have been considered 'advoiding the question.' That's why I chose 5, cause it seemed to be the closest thing to I want to say without feeling like I'm avoiding the main question.

In all honesty, I don't think the Mafia may go after Junglefever, but rather myself, which I also hope that doesn't happen.

 

[smashbot226]

My idiot roommate must have downloaded something illegal on our wireless internet, under my name, and now I'm having my internet quarantined apparently, though I can see no difference. So until I get this resolved, I may not be able to get on. Just letting you all know.

That's something scum would say.

loljk.

Oh well, I suppose my pursuit isn't doing me any well.

UNVOTE: SPAM MASTER

Better safe than sorry. Who knows, maybe the Vigilante will strike?

Wondering if join numbers have anything to do with roles. Tom was Luck 7, and was godfather. Rockin is 13, so he may be either Vigilante or something similar to Godfather. Or he could be the Psycho, who just wants to kill everything.

Either way, it's something to keep in mind. Game's called "Unlucky Thirteen" after all.

My guess is that even numbers are Townies and Odd numbers are roles.

 

[smashbot226]

And by Townies, I mean Millers, Masons, etc as well.

 

[Omis]

I thinked I missed someone
1.)Marshy-
3.)Macman-
4.)Mr.Lombardi34-
5.)Mentosman8-
8.)Spam master- Jungle
9.)Ronike-
10.)Yaya- No Lynch
11.)JungleFever6478-
12.)Smashbot-
13.)Rockin-

 

[smashbot226]

So if my hunch if correct, Jungle has a relatively important role- though as town or mafia I'm unsure.

And right now I'm rather positive that Rockin (AKA Number 13- check first page first post.) is not mafia, but an SK. If I die, I'm right on either end, and if I don't, then it'd be wise to invest in this idea before it's too late.

Vote: Rockin

Call it a hunch, but I'm trusting my instincts on this.

 

[Mr.Lombardi34]

Let me get this straight. You're voting based on... sign up order? That is about the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. Honestly, that's ridiculous.

We need to wait for more of a response from rockin.

 

[smashbot226]

Hey, like I said: HUNCH.

And omis? sent out key role PM's AFTER everyone signed up. Karthik and Handorin died- they ended with even numbers and were vanilla townies.

Tom's sign up ended in an odd number and WA-POW: Godfather right there.

Convenient? HARDLY. If I'm right and if we DO lynch Rockin and get noticeable results, then it's clear that anyone ending in an odd number is important in one way or another.

Yes, call me stupid for it, I don't care, I'm sticking by it.

So, according to my calculations:

Me (12), Mr. Lombardi (4), Spam Master (8), Karthik (6), Handorin (2), and Yaya (10) are/were Townies.

Tom was the Godfather (7, the "lucky" number.)

Rockin is number 13. I suspect he's an SK or Mafia. Priority target.

Jungle Fever is number 11. I suspect he's the Second-In-Command Mafia. Secondary target.

All others:

Ronike is number 9. Suspected as pro-Town.

Mentosman is number 5. Suspected as Mafia.

Macman is number 3. Unsure as of yet- he has not posted anything rather contributory or incriminating.

Marshy is number 1. Suspected as pro-Town and the Vigilante, due to lowest # status.

I'm just stating the object behind the veils.

 

[Yaya]

I love the fact you made all of that up.

That was COMPLETELY baseless, and to even consider it being correct is hysterical.

 

[smashbot226]

Okay then. If I seem so desperate, lynch me.

If I'm Townie, then my theory will be at least one quarter right.

If I'm Mafia, then I'll be utterly wrong and you can then disregard what I said.

Although keep in mind who lynches me. Might be some sneaky scum out there.

 

[DtJ Jungle]

smashbot that has to be some of the most hilarious logic ive ever heard. I know its called Unlucky 13 but I think thats just the name of the game.

I really believe Rockin just tried to come to my rescue, nothing more than that. I've made really stupid mistakes in the past and i think he was just covering my *** this time...

 

[smashbot226]

OR maybe you're scum, Mr. Odd, and Rockin's either protecting you because HE'S scum too, or he doesn't know you're mafia.

Maybe he's just trying to protect the leader, or he's a Mafia-Aligned SK. Either way, Rockin is very scummy in my opinion.

 

[smashbot226]

Oh, I could also be Mafia trying to come up with a completely implausible theory that will throw you all off balance so we can strike.

 

[smashbot226]

There's also the probability that I am a loner- the SK if you will, and am trying to turn town and mafia against each other.

Maybe I know what you all are without even knowing about it.

 

[#HBC | Mac]

Okay, time to do this.

Thing was the fact that JungleFever has been pinpointed several times in past Mafia games here. If it wasn't for him asking n00bish questions, it's just him not putting enough information on the table. And while, it can be understandable for Mafia's/ SKs to play this, it doesn't mean it has enough weight to lynch a person IMO. I felt that many would jump on Junglfever and ride the bandwagon on him, so I was just defending him. Now it's true, I worded on his defense wrong. I didn't want neither him or me a big Mafia target. ><;;

This is in terms of question 3: Basically, I felt if I try to pick neither and word out my own option ('option 6'), it may have been considered 'advoiding the question.' That's why I chose 5, cause it seemed to be the closest thing to I want to say without feeling like I'm avoiding the main question.

In all honesty, I don't think the Mafia may go after Junglefever, but rather myself, which I also hope that doesn't happen.

Rockin but literally noone except for SM was even suspecting junglefever. And if your reason was really because of his newbish nature, than why are you just saying it now. You had multiple chances of saying what was in your mind. Something just seems fishy. TBH i think you need to be lynched just because somethings going on and I don;t think rockin wants to tell us. The only other way of figuring it out would be to lynch him and see what his role is.

i dunno tho I don't really think rockin is scum just because if he is, that was prolly one of the dumbest things he could do. Rockin just come out straight.

I really don't have any opinion of anyone else.

 

[smashbot226]

i dunno tho I don't really think rockin is scum just because if he is, that was prolly one of the dumbest things he could do. Rockin just come out straight.

You're too nice. Even if he WAS Town, how do you he's not lying in the first place?

I doubt even an IDIOT would come clean about his mafia alignment. Just somebody stupid.

And I stand by my Rockin vote.

 

[mentosman8]

It may just be a hunch really, but I suspect Rockin is town. Also, smash, that was the most absolute ridiculous theory I've ever heard. First of all you have even numbers all being townies and odd numbers being combined power roles and mafia? first of all that would be the dumbest setup ever, second nobody who thinks even a bit would make a game where signup determined roles, it would make it too easy on town. I definitely don't like how you're trying to throw suspicion on at least 3 people over nothing but order. Honestly, that somewhat seems like you trying to throw the talk of you not contributing out the window by throwing something completely pointless into the mix and hoping we don't see it as such.

 

[#HBC | Mac]

well TBH mentos, i think that smashbot theory, is possible [though unlikely]. I'm pretty sure there have been setups in the past based on signup.

and smashbot I obviously know he won;t reveal himself if he was mafia. But if he isn't mafia I think he should come clean. like TBH hes ****ed anyways. we might lynch him today, if he is or isnt mafia, or he will get night killed if he's not mafia, and those don't happen, on day 3 there will be too much suspicion surrounding him that he would just be lynched then since I doubt anyone would be able to trust him. It just seems like it will be beneficial to the town if he just fessed up. And if that means role claiming so be it.

 

[Mr.Lombardi34]

Hey, like I said: HUNCH.

And omis? sent out key role PM's AFTER everyone signed up. Karthik and Handorin died- they ended with even numbers and were vanilla townies.

Tom's sign up ended in an odd number and WA-POW: Godfather right there.

Convenient? HARDLY. If I'm right and if we DO lynch Rockin and get noticeable results, then it's clear that anyone ending in an odd number is important in one way or another.

Yes, call me stupid for it, I don't care, I'm sticking by it.

So, according to my calculations:

Me (12), Mr. Lombardi (4), Spam Master (8), Karthik (6), Handorin (2), and Yaya (10) are/were Townies.

Tom was the Godfather (7, the "lucky" number.)

Rockin is number 13. I suspect he's an SK or Mafia. Priority target.

Jungle Fever is number 11. I suspect he's the Second-In-Command Mafia. Secondary target.

All others:

Ronike is number 9. Suspected as pro-Town.

Mentosman is number 5. Suspected as Mafia.

Macman is number 3. Unsure as of yet- he has not posted anything rather contributory or incriminating.

Marshy is number 1. Suspected as pro-Town and the Vigilante, due to lowest # status.

I'm just stating the object behind the veils.

I have a great theory similar to yours. All of the even numbers are mafia that appear town when investigated, and all the odd numbers save 7 and 13 are 2 vanilla townies, 3 roleblockers and 2 vigillantes. 7 and 13 are SKs.

Smashbot, in all seriousness, this seems to be a half baked attempt at appearing to do something, since somebody already accused you of not contributing anything. But this whole plan is utter bull****. Marshy is the vig because of a LOW NUMBER? Where the HELL are you getting this?

FOS: Smashman (And still rockin/jungle) for making half-***** plans in an attempt to appear helpful.

 

[Ronike]

My post of the day, althoug I may have internet back later...

At any rate, this whole numbered = role thing is total BS. I mean, how dumb would you have to be in order to put the mafia at such obvious points? It'd practically make the town untouchable! And I don't like how you are using it to defend yourself. So I would FOS you, but considering as how I don't get on much,

vote: smashbot226

If you have defended yourself well enough tomorrow or actually given us something GOOD, maybe I'll unvote you.

 

[karthik_king]

edited by tom because karthik_king is dead and shouldn't be talking, let alone insulting the town

 

[#HBC | Mac]

lol gtfo

 

[mentosman8]

Hey, like I said: HUNCH.

And omis? sent out key role PM's AFTER everyone signed up. Karthik and Handorin died- they ended with even numbers and were vanilla townies.

Tom's sign up ended in an odd number and WA-POW: Godfather right there.

Convenient? HARDLY. If I'm right and if we DO lynch Rockin and get noticeable results, then it's clear that anyone ending in an odd number is important in one way or another.

Yes, call me stupid for it, I don't care, I'm sticking by it.

So, according to my calculations:

Me (12), Mr. Lombardi (4), Spam Master (8), Karthik (6), Handorin (2), and Yaya (10) are/were Townies.

Tom was the Godfather (7, the "lucky" number.)

Rockin is number 13. I suspect he's an SK or Mafia. Priority target.

Jungle Fever is number 11. I suspect he's the Second-In-Command Mafia. Secondary target.

All others:

Ronike is number 9. Suspected as pro-Town.

Mentosman is number 5. Suspected as Mafia.

Macman is number 3. Unsure as of yet- he has not posted anything rather contributory or incriminating.

Marshy is number 1. Suspected as pro-Town and the Vigilante, due to lowest # status.

I'm just stating the object behind the veils.

Ok, didn't get a chance to get back on here for a long time last night, so I'll look through and post some thoughts on anything I find interesting later on. For right now, I'll stick to breaking down this "theory" of smashbot's.

Let's start out simple. First of all make note of the people he listed as mafia in his theory. Rockin and Jungle(the two people most talked about so far), and me, with no reasoning when nobody has given any reason to be suspicious of me. He's taking the safe way out on his theory by making two of his three accusations people who are being talked about, placing an un-explained FOS on one random person. This could make sense if he had some sort of pattern inherent in his mafia pattern in the theory, but there is not. He claims #s 13, 11, 7, and 5 are the mafia. With no inherent pattern here, and no reasoning for any of his "suspected town/mafia" shown, everyone except Tom, Rockin, and Jungle should be like Macman, unsure.

Moving on, let's look at his numbers. He claims Marshy is a vigilante. Now this leaves questions alone. First of all, there were only two kills last night, which very likely means we have EITHER a vig or an SK. If we have a vig, SK would have to be mafia, putting 4 mafia based on his suspicions. Break that down, and if a non maf had been shot instead of Tom after our mislynch, the numbers would be 6 town vs 4 mafia after day/night 1. Another mislynch, and even with a successful vig hit it would be 4 town vs 3 mafia. It is highly unlikely for the maf to start with almost a third of the voting power unless the town has almost all power roles, which brings to my next point.

It was generally agreed day one we have 3 mafia and one SK. If we had the above setup instead, as I mentioned, town would likely be many power roles. According to Karthik's theory though, we have 6 vanilla townies and 3 power roles. Very unlikely with 4/13 mafia to start.

Also, on the note of having a vig, Marshy is experienced enough I doubt he would shoot night one with no real leads. All the conversation day 1 was town/maf split and karthik. No leads whatsoever were given toward anyone because karth pretty much gave the maf someone to bandwagon on without looking suspicious at all.

Finally, if this theory was true, it could be argued that evens could be vanilla maf as well as vanilla town, and we just haven't hit one yet. Smashbot, you made this theory up after you were accused of not contributing and there are flaws all over it. I would like to see you come and answer to the problems I just pointed out, or I see this as nothing but your attempt to appear to be contributing to avoid getting lynched.

For anyone other than smash who read this, if you're wondering why I broke the theory down and analyzed it like this when it is extremely unlikely, it is because A. I want to know why he accuses the people who he does(seeing as I don't remember anyone actually accusing Rockin of maf yet, the general consensus is leaning toward town-sided power role, and I haven't seen any suspicion of myself either.), and B. This seems like it was thrown together without thinking to make an appearance of contribution, and I would like to see how he responds to my actual thinking through of it. If I am correct, he will have trouble arguing this, and we should keep an eye on him if that is the case.

 

[mentosman8]

Bah just reread that and realized I missed a last sentence in my first part of that breakdown. Here's the last part(end the last sentence with a comma): and Rockin and Jungle should be listed as possible mafia, no strong evidence either way, seeing as they both have yet to give any strong inclination other than a possible PR for Rockin.

 

[smashbot226]

It may just be a hunch really, but I suspect Rockin is town. Also, smash, that was the most absolute ridiculous theory I've ever heard. First of all you have even numbers all being townies and odd numbers being combined power roles and mafia? first of all that would be the dumbest setup ever, second nobody who thinks even a bit would make a game where signup determined roles, it would make it too easy on town. I definitely don't like how you're trying to throw suspicion on at least 3 people over nothing but order. Honestly, that somewhat seems like you trying to throw the talk of you not contributing out the window by throwing something completely pointless into the mix and hoping we don't see it as such.

We could never know for sure, right? I mean, for all we know, that COULD be omis?'s setup. Just a suggestion, not pointing anything out.

well TBH mentos, i think that smashbot theory, is possible [though unlikely]. I'm pretty sure there have been setups in the past based on signup.

and smashbot I obviously know he won;t reveal himself if he was mafia. But if he isn't mafia I think he should come clean. like TBH hes ****ed anyways. we might lynch him today, if he is or isnt mafia, or he will get night killed if he's not mafia, and those don't happen, on day 3 there will be too much suspicion surrounding him that he would just be lynched then since I doubt anyone would be able to trust him. It just seems like it will be beneficial to the town if he just fessed up. And if that means role claiming so be it.

Why would he come clean anyway? He could just say he's the vig or the doctor, while-

Oh, I get it.

I have a great theory similar to yours. All of the even numbers are mafia that appear town when investigated, and all the odd numbers save 7 and 13 are 2 vanilla townies, 3 roleblockers and 2 vigillantes. 7 and 13 are SKs.

Smashbot, in all seriousness, this seems to be a half baked attempt at appearing to do something, since somebody already accused you of not contributing anything. But this whole plan is utter bull****. Marshy is the vig because of a LOW NUMBER? Where the HELL are you getting this?

FOS: Smashman (And still rockin/jungle) for making half-***** plans in an attempt to appear helpful.

Ha ha. And I can tell you how Marshy COULD be vig:

Tom was 7 and the Godfather. Middle Number and the "center" of town's lynch target.

IF I'm correct, which I may not be, then the highest number (13 AKA Rockin) is the SK, signifying a high threat to town and to mafia, while the lowest number (1 AKA Marshy) is lowest threat to Town and even helpful, like a vig. Could be wrong but still.

My post of the day, althoug I may have internet back later...

At any rate, this whole numbered = role thing is total BS. I mean, how dumb would you have to be in order to put the mafia at such obvious points?

It's like one of those problems that makes you think it requires deep thought, yet simply looking at it can solve the problem.

It'd practically make the town untouchable! And I don't like how you are using it to defend yourself. So I would FOS you, but considering as how I don't get on much,

Not if the town knows about it. Besides, even if it WAS true, the town seems to have a pretty hard time believing something so simple seems so implausible.

vote: smashbot226

If you have defended yourself well enough tomorrow or actually given us something GOOD, maybe I'll unvote you.

Then YOU give ME actually DECENT evidence to lynch me.

Way to rush me. So far, I was right about Tom ALL ALONG (Thought of it at first, but began to suspect it- just wanted to wait to see what happened until somebody offed him.) and it seems to convenient for the lone townies to be even numbers.

And you are #9 Ronike. I will guarantee you by the end of the week, I'll be lynched by all odd numbers or get killed by either the SK or the Mafia. And if they don't, and the next three or two kills occur, we'll see results and say, "Okay, I was wrong," or, "Well well, I seem to be on to something."

And I trusted you too. Suspecting Ronike is scum, but am not retracting vote for Rockin.

Perhaps macman is pro-town.

 

[#HBC | marshy]

smashbot, 3 people dead and them staying consistent with your "theory" doesn't justify acting on it. Similarly (at least in terms of how baseless it is) I could propose that since Hando (#2) and Karthik (#6) were vanilla townies, that Yaya (#10) must be cleared as it stays consistent with every 4th player from #2 being a vanilla townie.

What's especially strange about your "theory" is that you said that any odd-numbered person is important in one way or another. I'm going to assume that your definition of importance is a power role considering I'm an odd number and you suggested that I was the vigilante.

I don't get why you pointed out a potential vig and not a doc or cop. You say that since I'm the lowest number that I'm potentially the most helpful to the town in terms of roles, but why vig? What makes a vigilante more useful than a doc? If a doc messes up then fine whatever, that's expected. If a vig messes up the town is down a member. Similarly if a doc succeeds then the mafia wasted their kill as opposed to a vigilante who even if he succeeds, there'll be more nightkills to come assuming it's not the Godfather or if the mafia shares a nightkill.

Cops and docs are the 2 most common townie power roles so you leaving them out is strange. You can't say that you were trying to protect them because there're only 2 potential townie power roles that you left unidentified, meaning anybody can put the pieces together and assume that Macman and Ronike must be the cop and doc if they chose to believe your "theory

Then you tried to clear 6 townies. This'd be beneficial to a mafioso because he knows who isn't mafia meaning he could potentially get 6 non-mafiosos to trust him a little more because he'd be pretending to have their backs. Things get worse if you named your mafia partner(s) amongst them.

There is no such thing as a mafia-aligned SK. An SK is independent. That's not to say that it's impossible that there's a mafia-aligned night killer, just not a mafia-aligned SK, though it's unlikely considering usually only the Godfather submits the NK or the mafia votes on it.

Suggesting that you're an independent trying to get the town and the mafia against each other just comes off as a bad attempt at a mindgame, considering the town and the mafia are already playing against each other.

Saying that Macman being unsure as to whether or not Rockin is lying ,and keeping the vote on suggests that your vote is justified on that alone. That means I could vote anybody in the game with baseless accusations and keep it on telling everybody else "Well how do you know he's not lying?".

You suggested that there's an SK and a vig which we shouldn't assume knowing that were only 2 kills the other day. Yes, you could say that the vig withheld his power, but a potential 3 kills (mafia, SK, Vig) in a Day/Night is unbalanced throwing that out the window. If what you said was true this game could potentially be over in 2-3 days depending on how many mafia there are. No reason to assume that.

I'm aware that I probably repeated a few things that mentos said but I literally looked at smashbot's post and typed down everything wrong I saw at first glance. So I agree with him other than when he mentioned a mafia-aligned SK. I also agree with Lombo who said that his post seems like an attempt at trying to contribute without it being helpful.

Vote: Smashbot226

I really don't care if smashbot is town, mafia, or independent. He's throwing the town off bad with his "theory" and even if he's town, I don't feel like we're losing much considering that he's pushing for baseless ideas and is trying to clear people and point out potential town power roles on the 2nd day with 10 people left. This isn't the endgame and it'd be a soft blow if he was town. If he's a cop or doc then he brought it on himself with that theory. Win-win situation.

However, what's potentially horrible about this is that Rockin and jungle might actually come up as mafia and smashbot will tout it around like he's a genius. Like spam master does with his supposed correct guesses in a game that happened over a year ago. It'd be a complete coincidence.

 

[smashbot226]

smashbot, 3 people dead and them staying consistent with your "theory" doesn't justify acting on it. Similarly (at least in terms of how baseless it is) I could propose that since Hando (#2) and Karthik (#6) were vanilla townies, that Yaya (#10) must be cleared as it stays consistent with every 4th player from #2 being a vanilla townie.

Hando and Karthik WERE Vanilla townies, and not to mention myself as well. And I'm not straying my ever-careful eye from anyone yet- it just means I give them a once-in-a-lifetime benefit of the doubt.

What's especially strange about your "theory" is that you said that any odd-numbered person is important in one way or another. I'm going to assume that your definition of importance is a power role considering I'm an odd number and you suggested that I was the vigilante.

Yes. I assume you're vig, as you know. Could be wrong, but that's my idea.

I don't get why you pointed out a potential vig and not a doc or cop. You say that since I'm the lowest number that I'm potentially the most helpful to the town in terms of roles, but why vig? What makes a vigilante more useful than a doc? If a doc messes up then fine whatever, that's expected. If a vig messes up the town is down a member. Similarly if a doc succeeds then the mafia wasted their kill as opposed to a vigilante who even if he succeeds, there'll be more nightkills to come assuming it's not the Godfather or if the mafia shares a nightkill.

Cops and doctors have alternate roles like the Paranoid Cop or the Bullet Doctor (Called something else, not exactly sure.) that make them too varying or dependable. You aren't even told WHAT kind of doc/cop you are. Vigs are the only consistent roles I can lay a finger on- they kill people without hindrance, nothing more.

Of course, there could also be those Role Switchers.

Cops and docs are the 2 most common townie power roles so you leaving them out is strange. You can't say that you were trying to protect them because there're only 2 potential townie power roles that you left unidentified, meaning anybody can put the pieces together and assume that Macman and Ronike must be the cop and doc if they chose to believe your "theory

1. That's because it's difficult to determine who the cop and doc are. I assumed you could be the cop, but I debunked it. You would've been more forward with someone likely to be scum.

2. Well, perhaps Mentosman could also be a power role, but I'm still unassured with him. Positive that Rockin and Jungle MUST be lynched however. Too risky.

Then you tried to clear 6 townies. This'd be beneficial to a mafioso because he knows who isn't mafia meaning he could potentially get 6 non-mafiosos to trust him a little more because he'd be pretending to have their backs. Things get worse if you named your mafia partner(s) amongst them.

I'm just stating what I think. If I singled out some scum as Townie, then shoot, I was wrong. I'll be dead by the next day anyway, so what's the point?

There is no such thing as a mafia-aligned SK. An SK is independent. That's not to say that it's impossible that there's a mafia-aligned night killer, just not a mafia-aligned SK, though it's unlikely considering usually only the Godfather submits the NK or the mafia votes on it.

Now that the GF is dead, we have only a potential lead for Mafia- Jungle. I say we lynch him eventually, but I still think Rockin is a huge threat to Town based on this theory alone. If he IS town, then I'll make sure to leave flowers by his grave.

Suggesting that you're an independent trying to get the town and the mafia against each other just comes off as a bad attempt at a mindgame, considering the town and the mafia are already playing against each other.

Hmm, but what if somebody DOES know who everyone is? Omis? excluded, of course. Then what? Not saying I have that ability of course, but just saying.

Saying that Macman being unsure as to whether or not Rockin is lying ,and keeping the vote on suggests that your vote is justified on that alone. That means I could vote anybody in the game with baseless accusations and keep it on telling everybody else "Well how do you know he's not lying?".

How is a perfectly innocent theory like this baseless? I gave a ramble about how I read between what could be imaginary lines and saw a pattern. EXCUUUUUUSE ME.

You suggested that there's an SK and a vig which we shouldn't assume knowing that were only 2 kills the other day. Yes, you could say that the vig withheld his power, but a potential 3 kills (mafia, SK, Vig) in a Day/Night is unbalanced throwing that out the window. If what you said was true this game could potentially be over in 2-3 days depending on how many mafia there are. No reason to assume that.

I'm aware that I probably repeated a few things that mentos said but I literally looked at smashbot's post and typed down everything wrong I saw at first glance. So I agree with him other than when he mentioned a mafia-aligned SK. I also agree with Lombo who said that his post seems like an attempt at trying to contribute without it being helpful.

The layout has been done before. Not that I'm accusing omis? of such simplicity, but its very well possible.

Vote: Smashbot226

I really don't care if smashbot is town, mafia, or independent. He's throwing the town off bad with his "theory" and even if he's town, I don't feel like we're losing much considering that he's pushing for baseless ideas and is trying to clear people and point out potential town power roles on the 2nd day with 10 people left. This isn't the endgame and it'd be a soft blow if he was town. If he's a cop or doc then he brought it on himself with that theory. Win-win situation.

If my theory is so baseless and too esoteric to consider, why not vote the REAL suspects off and save the town another pointless lynch? As of yet, everyone makes me out like a useless mongrel.

However, what's potentially horrible about this is that Rockin and jungle might actually come up as mafia and smashbot will tout it around like he's a genius. Like spam master does with his supposed correct guesses in a game that happened over a year ago. It'd be a complete coincidence.

1. No I would not. I'd dance a jig, but I won't put it up on youtube. Don't assume that of me- I hate assumptions like that.

2. It could be entirely coincidence. But then given what I've argued in the past posts you would know better.

@ Mentos:

For anyone other than smash who read this, if you're wondering why I broke the theory down and analyzed it like this when it is extremely unlikely, it is because A. I want to know why he accuses the people who he does(seeing as I don't remember anyone actually accusing Rockin of maf yet, the general consensus is leaning toward town-sided power role, and I haven't seen any suspicion of myself either.), and B. This seems like it was thrown together without thinking to make an appearance of contribution, and I would like to see how he responds to my actual thinking through of it. If I am correct, he will have trouble arguing this, and we should keep an eye on him if that is the case.

A: As I mentioned, my accusation of you has gone down a bit, but you are getting on my nerves. And I would've voted Rockin ANYWAY, seeing as how he's defending what seems to be scum in a barrel (AKA Jungle).

B. I thought of this before the night killings, after Karthik got lynched. I didn't give it serious thought until Tom and Handorin got killed, in which I thought I would share the idea with you all rather than keep it hidden. Turns out that's what I SHOULD have done.

 

[mentosman8]

I'm aware that I probably repeated a few things that mentos said but I literally looked at smashbot's post and typed down everything wrong I saw at first glance. So I agree with him other than when he mentioned a mafia-aligned SK. I also agree with Lombo who said that his post seems like an attempt at trying to contribute without it being helpful.

Marshy, I worded that badly, I didn't mean a mafia-aligned SK, I meant to say if there was a vig the SK would have to not be an SK, just part of mafia.

but I still think Rockin is a huge threat to Town based on this theory alone. If he IS town, then I'll make sure to leave flowers by his grave.

And I would've voted Rockin ANYWAY, seeing as how he's defending what seems to be scum in a barrel (AKA Jungle).

These two quotes aren't entirely contradictory I guess, but you say yourself a large reason you think of him as a threat is based on your theory. Also, I would like to point out the ONLY person other than yourself who even slightly accused Jungle of maf before Rockin made his(admittedly too strongly stated) defense of him. I also single this out as a reason Rockin isn't extremely suspect yet, because he put himself right in the center of the spotlight for a while, which is NOT a good idea, especially if he was a SK(who also would be at high risk defending him due to not knowing mafia, and if he was wrong inevitably being put in the spotlight.

And I trusted you too. Suspecting Ronike is scum, but am not retracting vote for Rockin.

Thinking someone is mafia just because they place admittedly reasonable suspicion on you? That's a pretty weak reason when standing alone. If they actually have reason to think you mafia, refute it, don't just turn suspicion back on them with nothing else to go on.

The only reason I voted for you was that your speech sounds very awkward to me, like your not speaking naturally. The reason I'm on red alert right now will be explained lower down.

I'm just quoting this to point it out to smashbot. The only other person who was suspecting Jungle of mafia before Rockin said anything admits the only reason he had any suspicion then was due to his words sounding awkward.

Rockin evaluates my options and decides that option 5 would be the best option fo rhim to pick. This aggravates me because he knows which option is true, so his claim that he is picking the best option implies, at least to me, that he is not picking the true option.

Going back a little bit to Spam's post recap, I agree that it is very strange word choice here. Saying the right option is way to say it to take suspicion away, and the way he did is an overall bad way to say it. This comment makes it look assuredly that he is either a power role, there is something he is hiding(mafia etc), or he feels there is some option not listed that would be a better fit. See next quote for his response here.

Thing was the fact that JungleFever has been pinpointed several times in past Mafia games here. If it wasn't for him asking n00bish questions, it's just him not putting enough information on the table. And while, it can be understandable for Mafia's/ SKs to play this, it doesn't mean it has enough weight to lynch a person IMO. I felt that many would jump on Junglfever and ride the bandwagon on him, so I was just defending him. Now it's true, I worded on his defense wrong. I didn't want neither him or me a big Mafia target. ><;;

This is in terms of question 3: Basically, I felt if I try to pick neither and word out my own option ('option 6'), it may have been considered 'advoiding the question.' That's why I chose 5, cause it seemed to be the closest thing to I want to say without feeling like I'm avoiding the main question.

This seems a reasonable response, although probably should have been said right with the answer to the original question instead of waiting to be questioned on his answer. Still, if anything I now suspect Rockin is closer on the end of being to hurried to defend and either blowing the cover off his role, or still being town-aligned but not thinking his responses through. In all honesty, unless he is the worst mafia ever, he wouldn't have put so much spotlight on himself this early.


Well, that's my breakdown on whats happened recently as a whole. Right now my strongest suspicion is on smashbot, as when called to defend his theory, he seemed to avoid trying to answer the flaws in his theory, instead going to saying things like "I gave a ramble about how I read between what could be imaginary lines and saw a pattern" and saying he could very well be wrong. This leads me to believe this theory was put together quickly to, as Lombo said, make an appearance of contributing without putting out anything useful. I will withhold my vote for the moment, but if smashbot can't put a very good defense behind the flaws in his theory to the point where it seems it did have a relatively deep amount of thought behind it, then he is my number 1 suspect for mafia right now.

 

[smashbot226]

Marshy, I worded that badly, I didn't mean a mafia-aligned SK, I meant to say if there was a vig the SK would have to not be an SK, just part of mafia.





These two quotes aren't entirely contradictory I guess, but you say yourself a large reason you think of him as a threat is based on your theory. Also, I would like to point out the ONLY person other than yourself who even slightly accused Jungle of maf before Rockin made his(admittedly too strongly stated) defense of him. I also single this out as a reason Rockin isn't extremely suspect yet, because he put himself right in the center of the spotlight for a while, which is NOT a good idea, especially if he was a SK(who also would be at high risk defending him due to not knowing mafia, and if he was wrong inevitably being put in the spotlight.

And yet even though Handorin put up a very strong case against Rockin, he died that same night. I imagine scum or the SK himself would do that. Tom's death is likely to do with a vig.

Thinking someone is mafia just because they place admittedly reasonable suspicion on you? That's a pretty weak reason when standing alone. If they actually have reason to think you mafia, refute it, don't just turn suspicion back on them with nothing else to go on.

He's voting me for lynching because of how my idea was "stupid." He gave little reason to even VOTE for me. Granted, he isn't on much, but you'd figure he'd give me a little evidence as proof.

I'm just quoting this to point it out to smashbot. The only other person who was suspecting Jungle of mafia before Rockin said anything admits the only reason he had any suspicion then was due to his words sounding awkward.

Rockin was quick to defend Jungle. Very quick. And against a single person who believed he was mafia.

Going back a little bit to Spam's post recap, I agree that it is very strange word choice here. Saying the right option is way to say it to take suspicion away, and the way he did is an overall bad way to say it. This comment makes it look assuredly that he is either a power role, there is something he is hiding(mafia etc), or he feels there is some option not listed that would be a better fit. See next quote for his response here.



This seems a reasonable response, although probably should have been said right with the answer to the original question instead of waiting to be questioned on his answer. Still, if anything I now suspect Rockin is closer on the end of being to hurried to defend and either blowing the cover off his role, or still being town-aligned but not thinking his responses through. In all honesty, unless he is the worst mafia ever, he wouldn't have put so much spotlight on himself this early.


Well, that's my breakdown on whats happened recently as a whole. Right now my strongest suspicion is on smashbot, as when called to defend his theory, he seemed to avoid trying to answer the flaws in his theory, instead going to saying things like "I gave a ramble about how I read between what could be imaginary lines and saw a pattern" and saying he could very well be wrong. This leads me to believe this theory was put together quickly to, as Lombo said, make an appearance of contributing without putting out anything useful. I will withhold my vote for the moment, but if smashbot can't put a very good defense behind the flaws in his theory to the point where it seems it did have a relatively deep amount of thought behind it, then he is my number 1 suspect for mafia right now.

Look, if you want a defense, here it is:

I spent a while thinking about Omis?'s mafia name: Unlucky 13. I thought that perhaps there was a deeper meaning to this and decided to look deeper.

There wasn't much I could find, an decided that knowing omis?, he would pull something incredibly sneaky that could have been so simple to see before. So I looked at other things- post count, the user's last post as to whether there were any hints, etc.

Then I looked at the game itself. It was around that time Karthik was lynched, and why I was reasonably inactive. I figured that my incredibly naive theory had a one in a million chance of working and decided to put it to the test- waiting to see the mafia's victim.

I believed that even with Handorin's death, my idea was still far too flimsy. But then I read Tom's role and thought, "Sh*t, this could be true!"

Look, it's not entirely ********, just mostly. I'll admit there are some holes, which I will address later, and that it is possible that it is incorrect.

But I will tell you now. IT. IS. CERTAINLY. NOT. BASELESS.

Now for problems stated:

1. The setup makes things easy for town.

For one thing, I bet a lot of people here overthink things by a large enough margin that they can completely skip over what appears to be the massive clue to end the game. I'm just stating what I deem to be plausible by a small amount.

2. This is a poor attempt to seem helpful.

Again, people overthink. Any theory, except when plain and clear, is a theory to take notice of.

3. Your blames and suspicions are unfounded.

One, I have the join order, which so far is correct to my knowledge. Two, multiple people here are perfectly condemnable for my suspicions-

Mentosman: Up until now, mentosman hasn't contributed or acted up much worth to the thread, in all honesty- up until I start pinning him for being scum.

Ronike: He defended Jungle, who may very well be Mafia, and was quick as a flash to defend him. Not only is this suspicion-worthy, it's also scum-worthy.

Jungle: Granted, he's asking some newbie questions, but it's often either an act or genuine newbishness.

A vote for me is a vote only for proving yourselves wrong.

 

[mentosman8]

In all honesty, if part of your reason for suspecting me is that I haven't contributed or acted up all that much, note A. that I have contributed more than you have, which means that when you complained about us talking about your lack of participation being a bad reason to suspect, you are doing the exact same thing now. Also, if you note, before you posted that theory of yours I had a post saying I was going to come back and do some analysis of what had happened and put it up there after work. When I got home from work your theory was up and took precedence. B. I had work pretty much off today, so I've been taking time analyzing posts since you with no apparent reason put an FoS on me, and didn't provide any reason until you were questioned about it multiple times.

In all honesty, your theory is possible. But so is a theme based mafia where all the roles directly tie in to the characters. It is not likely at all, and 3 deaths that somewhat fit the pattern mean nothing, as Marshy said. I still, as I have stated several times now, see no reason to suspect Jungle of mafia, nor Rockin of anything non town sided. If Rockin is mafia or SK, he would NOT have risked putting himself in the spotlight like that. If Jungle is town, there is no need to put a target on his head for SK or maf thinking he has a good role, instead of just taking the possible free lynch if he didn't say anything taking no notice. If Jungle is maf, Rockin would not know as an SK, and would not take the risk to save someone who in no way helps his goal(which extremely damages your theory, btw), and if he were maf and made the bold statement he did, he would know that it would make him and Jungle both prime lynch targets and possibly bring the mafia down to one extremely easily. I'll be checking back in a while before I go to sleep, hopefully you will have responded and I'll be able to make up my mind whether to vote you or not.

 

[Rockin]

Smashbot, is it possible that the number placement was just an ordinary theme of the game itself? It would be unfair/stupid that roles all depend on where you signed up at. Roles in terms of power and alignment are meant to be random, so as to make the game interesting and less see through. Ever heard of '13 ghosts?' Basically, it's a movie about 13 ghosts who are trapped in the real world and the main guy (forgot his name) tries to escape/fix the problem while not getting killed by them. Keep in mind, none of the 13 ghost held real importance. It was just the name, that's all. The point is this 13 spots = doesn't determine roles/alignment.

Also, could it be possible that some of the odd numbers could mean vanilla townies as well? I would think so at least.

I'm pretty convinced that there isn't no vigilante If there WAS a vigilante, I or Junglefever would've been shot by now (especially if it was Marshy IMO). There's a lot of suspicion on both of us, and if somehow the vigilante made a midstake, he would be able to tell himself that 'at least I had a lead...' . I'm sure however that there is a SK and two other Mafias.


Look at spambot's post after his theory was talked back to.

Okay then. If I seem so desperate, lynch me.

If I'm Townie, then my theory will be at least one quarter right.

If I'm Mafia, then I'll be utterly wrong and you can then disregard what I said.

He seems not be too concerned about Town losing or not.

Vote: Smashbot

I doubt he's a vanilla, so he may have a town aligned power or is Mafia. One of those two.

well TBH mentos, i think that smashbot theory, is possible [though unlikely]. I'm pretty sure there have been setups in the past based on signup.

and smashbot I obviously know he won;t reveal himself if he was mafia. But if he isn't mafia I think he should come clean. like TBH hes ****ed anyways. we might lynch him today, if he is or isnt mafia, or he will get night killed if he's not mafia, and those don't happen, on day 3 there will be too much suspicion surrounding him that he would just be lynched then since I doubt anyone would be able to trust him. It just seems like it will be beneficial to the town if he just fessed up. And if that means role claiming so be it.

Even if I was '****ed,' why do I need to role claim still? Then i'd be even more ****ed when they night kill me. I know I made a strong statement, but that shouldn't mean that I fully fess up.

 

[Rockin]

Also, to let everyone note, I'm going OOS to a convention and my net time could be limited to none. So if anything, don't be surprised if you don't hear from me much.

 

[Yaya]

Is that a serious vote?

If so, bold it.

 

[Ronike]

Yay for post of the day. Im getting really sick of this academic quarantine...

Way to rush me. So far, I was right about Tom ALL ALONG (Thought of it at first, but began to suspect it- just wanted to wait to see what happened until somebody offed him.) and it seems to convenient for the lone townies to be even numbers.

You can say you knew it all along, but then why didn't you bring it up day 1? Sure we had Karthik King to worry about, but you still coula brought it up. Instead you said he was scum too. Just because you didn't vote doesn't mean anything. Heck, its even a bit more suspiscious! Maybe YOU are scum, and we had all the mafia but you on his lynching so that later you could tote the fact that you weren't on his lynch to prove you weren't mafia. Well you still encouraged us to lynch him, which I think is weird.

As for having the "lone townies" as even numbers, its prolly pure coincidence that you are trying to take advantage of to clear yourself. Now, if we were at endgame and all the town were even and all odd were mafia, maybe we could take your suggestion, but this early in the game? No. Its just coincidence.

And you are #9 Ronike. I will guarantee you by the end of the week, I'll be lynched by all odd numbers or get killed by either the SK or the Mafia. And if they don't, and the next three or two kills occur, we'll see results and say, "Okay, I was wrong," or, "Well well, I seem to be on to something."

And I trusted you too. Suspecting Ronike is scum, but am not retracting vote for Rockin.

All because of one vote? Awfully defensive there. Now, I voted for you for two reasons:
1) I thought you were scummy and that my internet could be completely cut off soon, so I wanted to not have to make a giant post like this one.
2) You said you trusted me. I was the only one who hadn't really said they were that suspiscious of you. I thought maybe you had said you trusted me so that I would feel some type of friendship towards you bc you trusted me. So I decided to vote on you to see if you would suddenly change your mind. Which you did. Therefore, the only reason you said you trusted me was bc I hadn't said anything about you. Very scummy...

Look, if you want a defense, here it is:

I spent a while thinking about Omis?'s mafia name: Unlucky 13. I thought that perhaps there was a deeper meaning to this and decided to look deeper.

There wasn't much I could find, an decided that knowing omis?, he would pull something incredibly sneaky that could have been so simple to see before. So I looked at other things- post count, the user's last post as to whether there were any hints, etc.

WARNING!!!: omis?, I mean no offense by this next statement, I'm sorry, but I need to say it

When have you EVER seen omis? be "incredibly sneaky"? I've only ever seen him get himself lynched by seeming scummy. Not terribly sneaky, unless his plan was to get lynched, so yeah... no.

Then I looked at the game itself. It was around that time Karthik was lynched, and why I was reasonably inactive. I figured that my incredibly naive theory had a one in a million chance of working and decided to put it to the test- waiting to see the mafia's victim.

I believed that even with Handorin's death, my idea was still far too flimsy. But then I read Tom's role and thought, "Sh*t, this could be true!"

If all this is true, why didn't you come foward with it right away? Why did you wait until people started getting on your case because you weren't doing anything? Because you are pulling this out of your ***.

Look, it's not entirely ********, just something I'm trying to do to look productive. I should admit admit there are lots of holes, which I will say I will address later to get you all off my case, but I never willand that it is very likely that it is incorrect.

But I will tell you now. IT. IS. CERTAINLY. NOT. BASELESS. JUST. DUMB. AND. POTENTIALLY. PROTECTING. ME. AND. MY. MAFIA. BUDDIES.

Fixed.

Now for problems stated:

1. The setup makes things easy for town.

For one thing, I bet a lot of people here overthink things by a large enough margin that they can completely skip over what appears to be the massive clue to end the game. I'm just stating what I deem to be plausible by a small amount.

The thing is, if we accept your theory and believe it, and even 1, let alone 2, mafia are even numbers, that's it. We're boned. We lose in all likelyhood. Now I like to gamble just as much as the next person, but these aren't good odds. It's like betting the house, just dumb.

2. This is a poor attempt to seem helpful.

Again, people overthink. Any theory, except when plain and clear, is a theory to take notice of.

Again, the odds suck. And I love how you don't even say its not just a poor attempt to seem helpful

3. Your blames and suspicions are unfounded.

One, I have the join order, which so far is correct to my knowledge. Two, multiple people here are perfectly condemnable for my suspicions-

Mentosman: Up until now, mentosman hasn't contributed or acted up much worth to the thread, in all honesty- up until I start pinning him for being scum.

Yes, but he did say he was going to, just then your theory popped up, at which point he started contributing. Prolly because he didn't want to change topic quickly away from this "theory"

Ronike: He defended Jungle, who may very well be Mafia, and was quick as a flash to defend him. Not only is this suspicion-worthy, it's also scum-worthy.

Um... no I didn't. I said roleclaiming was bad and to stop clamoring for it. Far from defending Jungle... Not only is this suspicion suspicion-worthy, it's also scum-worthy.

Jungle: Granted, he's asking some newbie questions, but it's often either an act or genuine newbishness.

Wait, people fake it sometimes?!?! I had no idea!!! This idea has totally changed my perspective on this game, smashbot is a god!!![/sarcasm]
A vote for me is a vote only for proving yourselves wrong. Way to have a giant ego.

Seriously now, this whole thing was another giant attempt to look helpful while in reality doing nothing but trying to convince us that we need to be the house. Which I at least refuse to do. I'm quite comfortable in my house, especially when I get my internet back. Hopefully that will be today... At any rate, there I have explained myself. Anything I didn't explain, mentos explained quite well. And my vote stays, unlike my original intention.