It's me again, the mason of walls of text.
Weeks and weeks ago I went off about my character count theories, including how the only starting roster character from Melee that may not come back was...Ice Climbers. I always counted Meta, Snake and Peach after the video. Snake was a hidden character, plain fact.
So much for that, that, and that. The only bogus confirms we have to count on...Falcon, Ness, both of which have icons and assist trophies out. With them gone counted off on my fingers, twenty two characters, or twenty one if Zamus is a transformation.
Eight weeks left...If they keep up the twice/thrice broken character a week pattern, thirty characters off the bat. Or, they could do less, or glob on tons near launch. As wobbly as it is, set the bar around thirty. Hidden characters will push it at least into the forties, fifty is max.
Minus the two lemons, loose maximum of six all new characters. The Animal Crossing Icon has been haunting me for weeks, I have to accept there's a chance there is indeed some one behind it. The rest are a roulette wheel's guess.
'As if they wouldn't be back' characters. Luigi, Jiggs, Ganon, Marth, possibly Pichu because of Sakurai's odd liking of him. People who might be tweaked...G&W, Mewtwo (Could very well turn out mid-tier or higher with the new power system), Young Link, Falco. The easy cuts, Roy and Doc. We have Ike for a power-sword, Doc might have been sneaked in by an intern as a prank he was that poorly inserted.