All right, Toise, maybe I have a filmsy grasp of what appeals to people but Shortiecanbrawl's poll reads a lot like what people wanted in Brawl (circa 2006-07) but didn't. I mean, look at the bolded names in his roster.
1. Bowser Jr. - okay
2. Midna and Wolf Link - why are they still considered? What makes them any more special than Tetra, Vaati, Skull Kid, and other one-time Zelda characters? Other than that, she's not relevant in current Zelda games (Spirit Tracks and Skyward Sword)
3. Mewtwo - okay
4. Lucario - why is he on the poll? Also, no brand-new Pokemon? Smash usually adds at least two newcomers in each game (I expect Zoroark and I am hoping for Meowth in addition to the returning Mewtwo)
5. Roy - okay but I don't think he's that likely if he's not relevant in current Fire Emblem games
6. Black Knight - why is he still considered? Other than being a villain, what does he have? Also, he's not relevant in current Fire Emblem games (the DS remakes)
7. King K. Rool - okay, but no Dixie Kong? Sakurai must have a filmsy grasp on what people want if he considered Dixie Kong over King K. Rool
8. Krystal - okay, but if she wasn't furry fodder, would she still be considered?
9. R.O.B. - why is he on the poll?
10. Pit - why is he on the poll? He's not even retro anymore now that Kid Icarus: Uprising is coming soon
11. Little Mac - okay, but why is he still considered retro if he had a game last year? So, basically we get no retro newcomers in SSB4?
12. Golden Sun Hero - which one? Isaac or Matthew? People will automatically say Isaac but Matthew is more likely because he's relevant to the most recent Golden Sun game and he's practically identical to Isaac in every way (compare Ninten and Ness)
13. Saki - okay but why Saki? Why not Isa? He's relevant to the most recent Sin & Punishment game and he's practically identical to Saki in every way
14. Animal Crossing character - never gonna happen but okay
15. Custom Robo character - okay but why is this character still considered if it is practically a dead niche series? Golden Sun, Sin & Punishment, etc. are niche series but they got new games
16. Samurai Goroh - okay, but F-Zero has a slim chance of getting a second character since the series hasn't had a game since 2003 or 2004
17. Ridley - okay
18. Dark Samus - why is she still considered? She isn't relevant in Metroid: Other M
19. Sonic - why is he on the poll?
20. Mega Man - okay
21. Snake - why is he on the poll?
22. Bomberman - okay
My picks for SSB4 newcomers are influenced by current Nintendo games (post-Brawl games), what Sakurai originally planned to put in Brawl, and fan popularity.
1. Toad - two Toads are playable in New Super Mario Bros. Wii, a major 2D Mario console game, and it makes sense to have Toad playable to milk NSMBWii's success in the same sense it makes sense to have Zelda, Sheik, Ganondorf, and Young Link playable in Melee to milk OOT's success
2. Dixie Kong - Sakurai originally planned to put her in Brawl as a Diddy / Dixie tag team but removed her because of technical issues, perhaps he can solve these issues in SSB4
3. King K. Rool - fan popularity
4. Tingle - the only Zelda character to gain his own spin-off franchise complete with four games
5. Palutena - Sakurai is working on Kid Icarus: Uprising so it is very possible that he might want to add her and justify it by saying "we need more females" like he did with Zero Suit Samus in Brawl
6. Medusa - same with Palutena
7. Takamaru - he's very possible because Nintendo has been giving him attention lately, he was a supporting character in Captain Rainbow and now he has a playable role in Samurai Warriors 3
8. Little Mac - he's extremely likely because he has fan popularity, he had a new Wii game, and Nintendo is giving him lots of attention lately
9. Duck Hunt Dog - okay, that was all on me, there's no reason to add him other than for the lulz but at least he would be a retro newcomer
10. Starfy - he's no longer Japan-only, he's got five games, he's got lots of merchandise, sounds like a good choice for SSB4
11. Isa - Sin & Punishment is no longer Japan-only, he's practically identical to Saki in many ways and he's more recent
12. Meowth - all right, that's also on me but he makes sense because he's one of the few famous/popular non-Legendary Pokemon that is not an electric rodent or one of the starters
13. Mewtwo - the single most wanted Pokemon for SSB4 simply because he was removed in Brawl plus he was planned to be in Brawl at one point
14. Zoroark - he's very likely because he's being promoted as the Lucario of the 5th generation
15. Caeda - she may seem random but right now (at least for now), she's very likely because she's a major character second only to Marth in the DS remakes
16. Matthew - Golden Sun is back but Isaac is not, this new guy is Isaac's son and he happens to be practically identical in every way and he's recent so why not?
17. Mii - they are not very likely but they make sense if Sakurai decides to add "create-a-fighter" mode and the Miis are perfect for it, plus it also appeals the casual players (hey, at least the Mii is a Nintendo character)
18. Mega Man - fan popularity
Shortiecanbrawl's roster - more popular because he picked only the most popular characters but it does not reflect what's going on with Nintendo today
My roster - less popular because I picked not only the most popular characters but also the less popular characters but it does reflect what's going on with Nintendo today (maybe that's why people initially hated Melee and Brawl rosters when they were first revealed)
I remember reading somewhere that Sakurai said something about having a Smash roster with nothing but the most popular characters does not excite him...