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Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

Laniv

Smash Champion
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Apr 20, 2014
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Here's a question: What character you think has a good likelihood of being cut that you DON'T want to see cut from the next Smash Bros. game?

:ultincineroar::ultwolf: are the big ones for me. Falco has higher priority than Wolf, and Incineroar is the most recent Pokémon character, which seems to translate as "this character will be first on the chopping block".

Other characters are Sora, Pokémon Trainer, Wii Fit Trainer, and all three Mii Fighters


Here's my perception of return likelihood:
Can't Not Be In (100%)
:ultbowser::ultfalcon::ultdk::ultfox::ultinkling::ultkirby::ultlink::ultluigi::ultmario::ultmarth::ultness::ultolimar::ultpeach::ultpikachu::ultcharizard::ultsamus::ultshulk::ultvillager::ultyoshi::ultzelda:
Almost Certainly Getting In (90%)
:ultbyleth::ultdiddy::ultganondorf::ultike::ultjigglypuff::ultkingdedede::ultlucario::ultlucina::ultmetaknight::ultminmin:ultgnw::ultpacman::ultdaisy::ultrobin::ultdarksamus::ultsheik::ultsonic::ulttoonlink::ultwario:
Might Be Out-Prioritized (70%)
:ultbowserjr::ultfalco::ultgreninja::ulticeclimbers::ultisabelle::ultmegaman::ultmewtwo::ultpokemontrainer::ultsquirtle::ultivysaur::ultrosalina::ultroy::ultchrom::ultryu::ultken::ultzss::ultwolf:
Likely DLC (70+%, but only for DLC)
(See Above):ultcloud::ulthero::ultsephiroth:
Possibly, But Probably Not Getting In (40%)
:ultduckhunt::ultlittlemac::ultlucas::ultpalutena::ultpit::ultdarkpit::ultrob:
Won't Be In (0%)
:ultcorrin::ultincineroar::ultbrawler::ultgunner::ultswordfighter::ultpichu::ultpiranha::ultwiifittrainer::ultyounglink:
I Have No Idea (???%)
:ultbanjokazooie::ultbayonetta::ultdoc::ultjoker::ultkazuya::ultkrool::ultpyra::ultmythra::ultridley::ultsimon::ultrichter::ultsnake::ultsora::ultsteve::ult_terry:
Clarifications:
  • Characters aren't ordered within tiers.
  • Olimar is top tier because Pikmin seems to be doing quite well.
  • There's a small chance something is done with Ganondorf, be it a revamp or a replacement with Ganon or something.
  • Jigglypuff is the only one I see getting cut of the original 12.
  • Min Min's status is assuming an ARMS 2. Without a sequel in the works, I'd drop her down to "Won't Be In" tier.
  • Mega Man is lower because replacing him with X or Zero is decently possible.
  • Pokémon Trainer (and by extension, Squirtle and Ivysaur) is an exception to the rule of becoming DLC tier if they miss the base roster; If they no in, they no in.
    • That's not to say that they couldn't be DLC with Charizard essentially being an Echo Fighter of itself, but I don't think they'll do that.
    • If Pokémon Trainer somehow gets in without Squirtle and Ivysaur, they drop to "Won't Be In" tier.
  • Mii Fighter's status are assuming Miis aren't a feature on the next console, as they seem to be going away. If they are on the next console, they jump up 4 tiers.
...It's understandable to be pessimistic about certain characters not making it, but Pit of all characters?
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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...It's understandable to be pessimistic about certain characters not making it, but Pit of all characters?
Kid Icarus is a smaller series that's seemingly going into hibernation for a good long while, or is just straight up dead. Assuming this is the case, I just feel like they're likely to get out-prioritized by other characters.
 

ScrubReborn

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Mar 6, 2024
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Here's my perception of return likelihood:
Can't Not Be In (100%)
:ultbowser::ultfalcon::ultdk::ultfox::ultinkling::ultkirby::ultlink::ultluigi::ultmario::ultmarth::ultness::ultolimar::ultpeach::ultpikachu::ultcharizard::ultsamus::ultshulk::ultvillager::ultyoshi::ultzelda:
Almost Certainly Getting In (90%)
:ultbyleth::ultdiddy::ultganondorf::ultike::ultjigglypuff::ultkingdedede::ultlucario::ultlucina::ultmetaknight::ultminmin:ultgnw::ultpacman::ultdaisy::ultrobin::ultdarksamus::ultsheik::ultsonic::ulttoonlink::ultwario:
Might Be Out-Prioritized (70%)
:ultbowserjr::ultfalco::ultgreninja::ulticeclimbers::ultisabelle::ultmegaman::ultmewtwo::ultpokemontrainer::ultsquirtle::ultivysaur::ultrosalina::ultroy::ultchrom::ultryu::ultken::ultzss::ultwolf:
Likely DLC (70+%, but only for DLC)
(See Above):ultcloud::ulthero::ultsephiroth:
Possibly, But Probably Not Getting In (40%)
:ultduckhunt::ultlittlemac::ultlucas::ultpalutena::ultpit::ultdarkpit::ultrob:
Won't Be In (0%)
:ultcorrin::ultincineroar::ultbrawler::ultgunner::ultswordfighter::ultpichu::ultpiranha::ultwiifittrainer::ultyounglink:
I Have No Idea (???%)
:ultbanjokazooie::ultbayonetta::ultdoc::ultjoker::ultkazuya::ultkrool::ultpyra::ultmythra::ultridley::ultsimon::ultrichter::ultsnake::ultsora::ultsteve::ult_terry:
Mii Fighters ain't getting cut.

Imma stand on that now. No way. No sir. Not when their DLC costumes are such a money printer. I know you said only if Mii Maker gets retired - but honestly? Smash'll just get its own Mii Maker then. They ain't leaving that income on the table. Hell I'd go as far as putting them in the 100% tier.

Kid Icarus is a smaller series that's seemingly going into hibernation for a good long while, or is just straight up dead. Assuming this is the case, I just feel like they're likely to get out-prioritized by other characters.
I get the argument but I really doubt they're gonna entirely cut the Kid Icarus content (which is what I assume would happen if even Pit can't stay) unless the cuts are unreasonably large (and the roster's like 30 characters, which I don't think is ever happening). Actually he'd prolly stay even then

You gotta keep in mind how much the series exists in Smash's DNA now and how the series is a lot associated with Smash at this point. I get being worried about Palutena, since she's secondary, but I'm sure Pit is ensured even in the worst case scenario, he's the obvious first rep. Even if Kid Icarus reverts back to being a single rep franchise* (not too unlikely I admit), I can't see them fully getting rid of it. I'd probably put him in the "70%" tier at most pessimistic.

*not counting echos
 
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SMAASH! Puppy

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Pit basically hit Captain Falcon status where they've become a cornerstone of Smash even if their home series is not terribly active.
Hmm...It has been almost two decades since Super Smash Bros. Brawl, and Kid Icarus: Uprising got a lot in Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3Ds/Wii U. It makes sense that this would be a thing. I guess all the talk about Sakurai Bias (TM) caused me to overlook this.

The idea is still settling in so I'm still not super optimistic about his chances, but I'm definitely going to be less surprised if/when he gets in.

Pit is one of those characters who have a broader gameplay function, being deliberately designed as a very beginner-friendly fighter. He's probably even simpler to understand than Kirby, as Kirby's specials can be a little tricky.
I wouldn't say Kirby's Special Moves are at all difficult to understand, but three out of four of them having casual only utility is less than ideal.
 

Garteam

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Here's a question: What character you think has a good likelihood of being cut that you DON'T want to see cut from the next Smash Bros. game?
:ultroy:

He's a character whose inclusion was an anomaly born out of being in the right place at exactly the right time and who has also had to overcome a lot to get to the point he's at currently. He started off as a massive step down from Marth, skipped an entry, returned as DLC but still wasn't good, and now he's actualized into one of the most popular top tiers and swordies in the roster.

Unfortunately, it's tough to not think he's on the cutting board after Corrin in terms of Fire Emblem characters. Ike, Robin, and Byleth all just have more going for them than our boy. Here's to hoping to DLC.

honestly the only series where cuts are a big deal is smash.
Most cuts go over fine in other fighting games and then some of them get added back.

I just think it’s because the series never had a situation where cuts were all to common as they could keep building off the last game (and the first two games had pretty little to cut in the first place)
Smash isn't like most fighting games, though. It uses licensed characters rather than an original cast, it aims for a much larger, more casual audience, and there's a big emphasis placed on each entry being iterative off the last. All of these factors make people a lot more sensitive to when characters are gone, with most people hyper-fixating on the cuts when Brawl and Smash for 3DS' rosters leaked.

Even then, I'd debate saying cuts "aren't a big deal" in other fighters. I've seen too many fights about how Blanka and E. Honda shouldn't have been prioritized over other options for Street Fighter 6's roster and how the exclusion of Eddy Gordo and one of the Changs from Tekken 8's base roster didn't make sense to say that other fighting games don't get some flack for cutting notable and popular characters. I do think the expectation that the most egregious exclusions will inevitably be DLC does soften the blow here though.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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Smash isn't like most fighting games, though. It uses licensed characters rather than an original cast, it aims for a much larger, more casual audience, and there's a big emphasis placed on each entry being iterative off the last. All of these factors make people a lot more sensitive to when characters are gone, with most people hyper-fixating on the cuts when Brawl and Smash for 3DS' rosters leaked.

Even then, I'd debate saying cuts "aren't a big deal" in other fighters. I've seen too many fights about how Blanka and E. Honda shouldn't have been prioritized over other options for Street Fighter 6's roster and how the exclusion of Eddy Gordo and one of the Changs from Tekken 8's base roster didn't make sense to say that other fighting games don't get some flack for cutting notable and popular characters. I do think the expectation that the most egregious exclusions will inevitably be DLC does soften the blow here though.
A big one would be the whole Functions Vs. Functions debacle for Marvel Vs. Capcom Infinite, which literally started because of cutting anyone related to Fantastic 4 and X-Men.

EDIT: Though to be fair, with the series starting as X-Men Vs. Street Fighter, this is about the equivalent of cutting half the original twelve, and Marth for good measure.
 
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SMAASH! Puppy

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Do you ever wonder which smash 4 newcomers only came back because they were bringing everyone back?
Of the characters introduced, I'd say Wii Fit Trainer and Corrin are the only two who lack any sort of staying power. Assuming we have any characters that are never seen again after Super Smash Bros. Ultimate, those are the only two from that game that I think would have that status (aside from Miis, but that's only because I don't think they'd add a Mii Maker to Smash, if the avatars are dropped from consoles).

EDIT: Even then, I could see them bring back the more unpopular characters like them, Incineroar, Piranha Plant etc. for fun, but it would probably take a while.
 
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BritishGuy54

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Do you ever wonder which smash 4 newcomers only came back because they were bringing everyone back?
It’s a bit hard to say since Ultimate came so soon after Smash 4. I guess I’d consider :ultbowserjr::ultpalutena::ultdarkpit::ultlucina::ultcorrin::ultwiifittrainer::ultcloud: as possible options for cuts.

For returning veterans in Smash 4, that also came back to Ultimate, I’d say :ultdoc::ultroy::ultlucas:could be considered to be options to cut as well.
 

Golden Icarus

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Of the characters introduced, I'd say Wii Fit Trainer and Corrin are the only two who lack any sort of staying power. Assuming we have any characters that are never seen again after Super Smash Bros. Ultimate, those are the only two from that game that I think would have that status (aside from Miis, but that's only because I don't think they'd add a Mii Maker to Smash, if the avatars are dropped from consoles).
Interesting. For me Wii Fit Trainer feels pretty firmly in the “middle of the pack.” Sakurai always seems hesitant to delete an entire first party series from Smash, with the only time it’s ever happened being Ice Climbers in Smash 4, which was explicitly due to technical limitations.

I see the reasoning though. The Wii Fit brand is pretty far in the past and likely doesn’t have a future, she isn’t a massively popular character and she actually has competition now with Ring Fit. I suppose we probably wouldn’t want two “fitness reps” of all things, so maybe she will get replaced.

But to me, she’s just so R.O.B./Game & Watch coded. Pretty irrelevant and not exactly the most popular, but still represents something important to Nintendo and is one of those few characters that nobody expected, which is a big part of Smash’s dna. And while she could get axed in favor of Ring Fit, you could also justify keeping her and adding a few attacks/skins to represent it. Why go through the trouble of replacing her when you can just update her playstyle into being an all encompassing “fitness rep?”

If we are cutting an entire Nintendo series, which is in the realm of possibility if we’re looking at a full scale reboot, then I do agree that Wii Fit would be somewhat lower on the totem pole, but I’d be much more worried for Ice Climbers who are notorious for being a pain to implement and represent very little in the context of Nintendo history.

Also I’d be extremely surprised to lose the Miis. We don’t have a new customizable avatar to replace them and they’ll need something in that vain, so they can keep making that easy Mii costume DLC money.
 
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Pupp135

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Do you ever wonder which smash 4 newcomers only came back because they were bringing everyone back?
If I had to guess, the main ones I’d feel confident in would probably be Corrin and maybe Bowser Jr. Corrin was a divisive character from the start. Bowser Jr. was low priority in For, but I could see the devs deciding to keep him as the car was a unique moveset, and the Koopalings were a nice set of alts.

Out of curiosity, what’s everyone’s stance on a “surprise” newcomer (i.e. Mr. Game & Watch, R.O.B., Duck Hunt, and Piranha Plant so far) for the next game?
 

osby

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People way too overestimate some characters' chances to get cut just because they got added after Melee.

A lot of Smash characters had no relevance when they were first added. It's more than a little hypocritical to defend Captain Falcon or Mr. Game & Watch as mainstays than argue that Pit or Wii Fit Trainer is low priority because they are outdated.
 

fogbadge

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Out of curiosity, what’s everyone’s stance on a “surprise” newcomer (i.e. Mr. Game & Watch, R.O.B., Duck Hunt, and Piranha Plant so far) for the next game?
that is a difficult one but a good one at the same time. with the exception of PP the others each had a certain amount of importance in Nintendos history by themselves so PP kind of throws out anything that could have been used as a metric to judge it by
 

Louie G.

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Do you ever wonder which smash 4 newcomers only came back because they were bringing everyone back?
I imagine most of them would have returned. Generally the cuts from game to game up to that point are derivative, low priority characters with some exceptions being Mewtwo (likely low priority because of how many Pokemon are in the game) and Snake (he's a guest, so he can't really be judged the same way).

:ultmewtwo::ultroy::ultdoc::ultpichu::ultyounglink:
:ultsnake::ultwolf::ultlucas::ultsquirtle::ultivysaur: (:ulticeclimbers:)

It's hard to find equivalents in Smash 4's roster since I think they added very "efficient" picks, many of them representing a new series and the derivative characters, later to be deemed echo fighters, being a lot easier to construct. I don't think their ease of access makes them immediately safe though, just because we've lost clones in the past. So I think Lucina and Dark Pit, albeit sort of a copout, are some of the first to go.

Then there are lower priority characters, and those who feel more expendable because they're part of larger series. Corrin is the obvious one, and although I feel generally that a first party DLC character ought to just be in the base game next time, FE would be a prime candidate for cutting down and I believe Robin would continue to take precedent. Maybe a bit controversial, but just to parallel the trend of characters added late in development being cut in the following game I'll say Bowser Jr could become our Mewtwo. He almost missed the boat, and he's from a series which is otherwise going to receive new content no matter what. He feels way too important to lose on paper but he just makes sense if we're contextualizing through the previous games. Side note, Pokemon seem to have been unfortunate in the past but I think Greninja is on the safer side anyway.

Smash typically doesn't cut a sole representative for a universe unless they have to. Ice Climbers ran into a technical slump and Snake... we don't really know what happened, but it's safe to assume guests are somewhat expendable by default. I don't see many of our new guests being cut, but perhaps Cloud may have had less luck and been considered a loose end due to his minimal content (at least at the time) had the goal not been to bring back everyone. Assuming what we've heard is true and he may have been one of the last characters locked down for EIH, he may have missed the boat at first.

:ultbowserjr::ultcorrin::ultcloud::ultlucina::ultdarkpit:

Maybe a bit uncreative, but feels within the spirit of the cuts we've seen in the past. Clones, lower priority characters from larger series, and a major third party addition who slips through the cracks. I can't really think of anyone else on the roster I'd have considered expendable - especially since Ultimate is able to build on Smash 4 more directly, and because the others were presumably high priority or are carrying their series on their backs.

What's funny is that NOW I don't think all, or even most of these characters will be cut. I feel as if Bowser Jr is safe, Lucina is kind of a staple now, Cloud may as well come back since SE has four characters on the last roster and Dark Pit might just be piss easy to add anyway. But putting it in kind of a "historical" context, if Smash 4 to Ultimate had progressed normally, this is a pretty accurate parallel to how it went down the last two times.
 
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LiveStudioAudience

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The thing that always got me about that was that how could anyone be surprised at the notion of cutscenes from a major video game being leaked to the internet, even in 2008? This was the same era where people who uploading bootleg recordings of still theatrical movies in parts on YouTube yet somehow a fan among the millions of people playing Brawl recording portions and putting them online was not expected?

Especially given that stuff like the Smash Dojo was capitalizing on the awareness brought by online interaction, it betrays a shocking naivete in the practical reality of the internet at the point.
 
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Perkilator

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Even if this wasn’t a factor, I genuinely cannot fathom the idea of even attempting to write a cohesive story with 70+ characters.
 

LiveStudioAudience

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Do people still believe that the sole reason Ultimate's cutscenes aren't as resource-consumingly long as Brawl's is Sakurai's pettiness? Seriously?
I had always assumed while Sakurai's disappointment may have played a factor at first, he and Nintendo likely sensed where the bulk priority was for a lot of fans and adjusted the emphasis in Smash accordingly after that.
 

Golden Icarus

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Out of curiosity, what’s everyone’s stance on a “surprise” newcomer (i.e. Mr. Game & Watch, R.O.B., Duck Hunt, and Piranha Plant so far) for the next game?
We'll definitely be seeing one and it will almost definitely be something we can't predict lol

Not sure if it qualifies as a "surprise character," but I do feel Excite Biker is hugely slept on. It's a pretty recognizable NES release, but unlike Urban Champion, Mach Rider, Balloon Fight, etc. the Excite brand is a way more present Nintendo property than people seem to give it credit for. There were three Excite games on the Wii that were all pretty successful and we have the Excitebike course in Mario Kart 8, which is a huge boon given the unbelievable success of that game. It also outsells F-Zero, Nintendo's other big racing series and Rhythm Heaven, which people often site as the big Nintendo franchise missing from Smash.

I can't think of any other NES throwback character that has even close to the same presence in modern Nintendo. Yeah it's kinda hard to picture a fighter that is always riding on a bike, but it's also something Sakurai considered all the way back in Melee. Two decades later I wouldn't be surprised if he revisited the concept and finally made it work. The fact that the biker lends itself to a challenging, hard to imagine moveset might work in its favor if we're going for something unexpected.
 
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Louie G.

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People way too overestimate some characters' chances to get cut just because they got added after Melee.

A lot of Smash characters had no relevance when they were first added. It's more than a little hypocritical to defend Captain Falcon or Mr. Game & Watch as mainstays than argue that Pit or Wii Fit Trainer is low priority because they are outdated.
Yeah, this has been beginning to weigh on me a bit. It feels like some people are of a bit of a one track mind about longevity / veteran status. Not to put Smash Puppy on the hot seat here, but throwing Pit and Little Mac in the likely to be cut category when you have like... Jigglypuff, Ice Climbers, Falco / Wolf and Sheik skewed toward the likely to return end it feels like we're in a bit of a rut. Not that I think all of those will definitely be cut, or anyone I defend is 100% totally safe, but we should try and be more consistent with judging everyone on a similar level.

Let alone Ness, Falcon, G&W - who mind you, I believe are permanent fixtures, but the likes of Pit or Little Mac should reasonably be on a similar pedestal.

If we're going to be seeing more cuts than ever next time, we're going to have to extend that throughout the series' entire history. And perhaps this renovation means some characters who have kind of become staples will take a backseat to those who have become new series icons, are freshly popular and unique. Little Mac and King K. Rool for example... they're newer faces to the series, relatively speaking, but what makes them inherently less important than Ice Climbers and Falco? They're unique, massively popular character picks for a new generation of players. Being old additions doesn't mean being above everyone else anymore. If anything this next game is the first opportunity to outright rethink Smash's priorities and establish a new status quo, because frankly the old one where we just assume everyone from Melee is safer than everyone from Smash 4 is getting tiresome.
 
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TheQuester

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Out of curiosity, what’s everyone’s stance on a “surprise” newcomer (i.e. Mr. Game & Watch, R.O.B., Duck Hunt, and Piranha Plant so far) for the next game?
There will probably be one, but honestly they only one i can imagine is...Nintendo LABO lol, but even then idk because it wasn't that succeful, right?
 

ninjahmos

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RE: Shadow in Smash w/ Music

I do agree that the ARK would be perfect for Shadow, and as for music from Sonic Adventure 2 and Shadow the Hedgehog, I'm hoping they add in Throw It All Away, Supporting Me, I Am (All Of Me) and All Hail Shadow. I also agree with 7NATOR that not only Shadow-specific songs, but more Modern Sonic music would be great... even from Sonic '06.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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Out of curiosity, what’s everyone’s stance on a “surprise” newcomer (i.e. Mr. Game & Watch, R.O.B., Duck Hunt, and Piranha Plant so far) for the next game?
From what I can gather, the idea is to have one of two things: Something that's not really on people's radars, but is still an icon, or a really fun idea inspired by games past. I don't think we'll get a Goomba or anything since that's too close to Piranha Plant, and the NES's first party library has been picked pretty clean, which I think leaves:
  • Something from the Gameboy Era.
    • Just from my knowledge of Game Boy games, Muddy Mole and his digging mechanics could be a pretty good fit, but it could be just about anything.
  • Something from the Nintendo DS era.
    • Nintendogs comes to mind for some reason, but again, it could be just about anything.
  • A character based off of Nintendo LABO or Game Builder Garage.
    • Both are really interesting games, and Nintendo LABO was a pretty cool experiment all things considered. I think both series will get something in the next game, even if it's not a character.
  • Arthur (or other smaller, but impactful retro 3rd party)
    • IIRC Ghosts 'n Goblins is a pretty well known NES title, and this kind of character being taken from a 3rd party would surprise everyone.
  • Poochy
    • Not sure if they're quite notable enough to be known by the casual audience, but with their prominence in the Yoshi titles, and inclusion in Mario Kart I feel like they'll get there. Also it'd just be adorable.
  • Skull Kid
    • Bit of a hot take, as Zelda fans certainly want him, but Zelda character support is spread pretty thin and Skull Kid is an iconic character that technically counts as retro.
 
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Ivander

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The thing that always got me about that was that how could anyone be surprised at the notion of cutscenes from a major video game being leaked to the internet, even in 2008? This was the same era where people who uploading bootleg recordings of still theatrical movies in parts on YouTube yet somehow a fan among the millions of people playing Brawl recording portions and putting them online was not expected?

Especially given that stuff like the Smash Dojo was capitalizing on the awareness brought by online interaction, it betrays a shocking naivete in the practical reality of the internet at the point.
I mean, you are questioning about a company who's systems were still checking for Windows 95.

But that aside, the cutscenes weren't cut only because of the Youtube stuff. SSE took up more than half of Brawl's disc space.
  • The SSE cutscenes alone were 2.52 GB and if counting all of the cutscenes in Smash Brawl from the opening movie, the trailers, the ending bits, etc, the cutscenes altogether would've been 3.36GB. And the SSE Stages were 504MB.
  • The characters(textures, models and Final Smashes) were 662MB, the regular stages were 147MB and the items were 19.2MB.
  • Want to know what had the most disc space behind Subspace Emissary? The music and sound effects, which altogether was 1.09 GB.
  • And there was still around 1GB to 2GB left over IIRC.
Subspace Emissary practically took up the majority of the data in Brawl. The characters, stages and items barely reach even a quarter of it and if counting the non-SSE Cutscenes, they don't even reach a quarter. Can you imagine the amount of new characters, stages and items if even half of SSE's data was applied to them?
Also, look at the amount of data that games have been taking nowadays, with most games taking about 50 GB on average, not counting the ones like Call of Duty and Final Fantasy VII Rebirth that take so much more. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate is 17.3 GB with all of the DLC. I don't think people want to imagine how much size SSBU would be if it had a Subspace Emissary-like mode that was more than 3/4 the size of the rest of the game.
 

Louie G.

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As far as Ultimate (first party) vets go, here's my two cents on the matter.

GOVERNMENT MANDATED - :ultinkling: :ultisabelle:
If these two are missing, Sakurai would get gunned down in the street by the Nintendo ninjas. I mean really, be honest with yourselves.

NEW MAINSTAYS - :ultridley::ultkrool::ultpyra::ultmythra:
Major supporting characters from series with, at least for now, fairly humble representation. They're also incredibly popular, some of the most requested characters and also some of the most frequently played. At least in K. Rool and Pythra's case for the latter.

LIKELY - :ultbyleth::ultminmin
I generally don't see a reason to cut the first party DLC characters. These also happen to be two of the newest characters on the roster, which is a value asset to make sure we don't just fall back on the old guard. Min Min represents a new series and Byleth is from FE's biggest success, which is still fairly fresh. There's a possibility they're of a slightly lower priority and fall short, but not a very high one.

EXPENDABLE - :ultincineroar::ultpiranha:
Fresh, unique characters who I'd love to keep around but are simply harder to imagine coming back. Maybe their standout movesets will be enough to save them, I'm not spelling 100% doom for them but both being part of bigger series with more popular characters on the roster... I just see them being lower priority than the rest. Hope I'm wrong though, genuinely. I was just gushing about Incineroar a page ago.
 
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Garteam

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Garteam
I'm going to reupload my list for cut predictions:
my-image.png

As this list (hopefully) conveys, there are very few characters that I think are more likely gone than not, but I think most of the roster does have a slim chance of being cut under certain circumstances. It really depends on how third party negotiations go, what traits are and aren't emphasized, who is included in our newcomer pool, etc.
 

Louie G.

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As this list (hopefully) conveys, there are very few characters that I think are more likely gone than not, but I think most of the roster does have a slim chance of being cut under certain circumstances. It really depends on how third party negotiations go, what traits are and aren't emphasized, who is included in our newcomer pool, etc.
Understandable for the most part, but semiclone status aside Isabelle should probably be sitting somewhere in the Diddy and Dedede echelon of locked-in supporting characters. I'm assuming you just wanted to cast a general loose skepticism toward derivative characters, which is understandable, but I really think Isabelle is too much of a fixture of modern Nintendo's brand to humor getting cut at all.

Otherwise, I don't agree 100% on everything here but I'm on your wavelength.
 
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osby

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While I agree that it's not a high-priority veteran, I'm not sure if I necessarily agree with the consensus that Pichu's only saving grace is EiH.

Prior to Ultimate, sure but now that it has a moveset that actually works and with all the positivity it got upon its reveal, I wouldn't be surprised if the dev team's opinion on it improved significantly.
 

Louie G.

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I wonder if the fact that nobody wants Wolf cut will bode well on him at all, seems like the most consistent answer for who we don't want cut.

It makes sense for him to be lower priority, but it's possible that his ballot showing was incredibly good. He's got a strong playerbase and his reintroduction to the series was overwhelmingly positive even beyond the EIH part. He's also got quite a striking playstyle, I don't think he gets enough credit for how unique he feels to control. Not that many fighters baring their claws, surprisingly.

I think the main thing in his way is how difficult it may be to justify that all three Star Fox characters are prioritized, and Falco being more of a discernable staple, but I'd personally love if they all came back. Not counting on it myself but I'd love to have a reason to believe it.
 
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