To be honest, I feel Incineroar isn't in that bad of a spot. Pichu is really the only one I have doubts of coming back.
That said, it's not like cuts aren't likely or anything. We are extremely unlikely to get Ultimate Deluxe(I generally see it as 0%, but my predictions tend to be odd anyway) anyway, and there's also ones who might not be brought back outside of DLC again.
Anyway, as much as I'd like Wolf back first, Falco is clearly the more popular one of the two and just easier to make(regardless of having earlier programming, that doesn't mean it's "easy" to bring back). Wolf I only really went for during Brawl, as I couldn't mesh with him that well in Ultimate. I also am curious which Ganondorf we'll be getting this time. OOT might stay, or they could try another way with TP. I don't see TOTK happening due to too many overall differences(and while it's lightly possible in Ganondorf's case, it's not in Zelda's. It's the same character as BOTW, which never fit the design of how Zelda works. She's not heading anywhere near that direction as is. Updates, sure. But that's not one of them. With that in mind, Link might get some TOTK stuff, and there's no way both of the child Links are getting cut. We're keeping one of the more classic playstyles. They're too important to the game).
Dr. Mario could go either way, but he's not really hard to keep. PP is the only one that doesn't seem that likely(though Bowser Jr. could always hit a snag too). The rest are fairly safe. Daisy getting no meaningful differences I see as far more likely than losing anyone but PP, to be frank. XD
That's all I can think of. And I'll be honest, Palutena is safe. Kid Icarus isn't losing anyone. There's no reason to. Dark Pit is easy, Palutena is pretty much the mascot in Japan, and Pit is obviously going nowhere. Likewise, while we might not get any new AC characters, they're both staying. We have no real chance of losing Isabelle at any point, and Villager is 100% safe of the two(but again, I don't see us losing Isabelle). The idea Villager has any chance of being cut to keep Isabelle is ludicrous. They are the main character and the core representation of the gameplay. Isabelle is the mascot and second most important. She's pretty much the Luigi in this case, who is absolutely important and not a realistic cut, but is definitely second to the main character.
I also spoke on Pikmin before; I doubt Alph will be an Echo. Why? Because the Pikmin are the character too. Unless it's literally just Rock Pikmin and all the other same Pikmin, it has no chance of happening. Pikmin & Captain getting a Clone? Oh, totally could happen. While Olimar and the other Captain are going to remain similar, the Pikmin are not really likely to do so. That, and if they can't meaningfully make Rock Pikmin actually different, or have more different Pikmin, they have zero reason to separate them or add a new Captain. At that point, it's already represented correctly as Pikmin & Captain. It sucks Alph didn't get more love, but he was always in a very bad position for one. I also wouldn't see the point in having 3 separate playable Captains either, since it's the same issue. Having one more to show off the other Pikmin makes way more sense(these wouldn't be possible as an Echo, mind you). Preferably Alph, but it could be anyone else, especially as many don't share the same bodyshape(or is close enough to be redone like Alph was).