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Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

LiveStudioAudience

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It might worth noting that Konami didn't develop or publish a single game on the Wii U (outside Virtual Console) during the time of Smash 4's development and even after its release. I don't think there was necessarily bad blood between the two companies or that there were hostile to the idea, just that their priorities were elsewhere and that they may have considered a strong relationship with Nintendo outside a few 3DS games (a console which was too successful to totally ignore) to not be that critical at the time. That's not even getting into how the souring dynamic with Kojima may have made them increasingly reluctant to have his most famous character be spotlighted in anything outside their direct control.
 

Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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At the end of the day, Kojima is irrelevant to Snake getting into a future game. So it really really does matter when it comes to Konami. Sakurai can't request anything to Kojimi during Smash 4. Kojima doesn't own Snake at all. He has no say. Of course he wasn't approached. That's just basically how licensing goes. There's no blessing to really worry about, as at most, if Snake were to get in, he might let Kojima know as more of a friendly thing. But it's still business.

Whatever reason Snake didn't get in 4, which we really don't have a clue about either, it's not simply "Sakurai didn't ask Kojima", or for that matter, that wouldn't have happened either way. The guy has no say anymore. He could request Snake come back at best, and Sakurai can only confer with Nintendo and Konami about it. Whatever happens after that is what it is.

------------------

On another note as someone who pays a lot of attention to story writing; Bosses are not inherently Villains. They're only Antagonists. Antagonists can be a Villain or a Hero. Same thing works with a Protagonist. A Heroic Antagonist can exist(in fact, Sonic Adventure 2 is a great example of having quite a few of these. In the Dark Story, Sonic, Knuckles, and Tails are Heroic Antagonists to fight. In the Hero Story, Rouge is an actual Heroic Antagonist, as she strictly works with the good guys and is pretending to be a bad guy. She's a dubious hero, by all means, but still actually one. Shadow, Eggman, Gerald, and Biolizard are the actual villains of the game. G.U.N. is also designed to be a Heroic Antagonist(despite seeming neutral, anyway. The only time they're actually Villains is Sonic X outright, and only some members), and Amy just kind of... is there, among the various story characters. Things do change slightly when Shadow's game releases, as Gerald is now a Heroic Antagonist too, but that's due what was basically a minor retcon in the backstory. All they did was give the Eclipse Cannon another reason for existing and Shadow's backstory was expanded. ...It's also the only game where Shadow can be a Hero or Villain willingly depending the route(so it's never set in stone. There's not even an official route that ties to the final story, just theories).
 
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Wonder Smash

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At the end of the day, Kojima is irrelevant to Snake getting into a future game. So it really really does matter when it comes to Konami. Sakurai can't request anything to Kojimi during Smash 4. Kojima doesn't own Snake at all. He has no say. Of course he wasn't approached. That's just basically how licensing goes. There's no blessing to really worry about, as at most, if Snake were to get in, he might let Kojima know as more of a friendly thing. But it's still business.

Whatever reason Snake didn't get in 4, which we really don't have a clue about either, it's not simply "Sakurai didn't ask Kojima", or for that matter, that wouldn't have happened either way. The guy has no say anymore. He could request Snake come back at best, and Sakurai can only confer with Nintendo and Konami about it. Whatever happens after that is what it is.
Kojima may not have a say-so now but the fact remains that it's his creation and he was the reason Snake was in Smash in the first place. So while he may not have any control over that, I'm sure he would still want Snake in the game and of course, I really don't think Nintendo is going to go "Well, Kojima is not with Konami, so there's no reason to add Snake now, even if Kojima wants that". Requests can come from anybody, even those not working with the companies.
 

Nabbitfan730

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Kojima may not have a say-so now but the fact remains that it's his creation and he was the reason Snake was in Smash in the first place. So while he may not have any control over that, I'm sure he would still want Snake in the game and of course, I really don't think Nintendo is going to go "Well, Kojima is not with Konami, so there's no reason to add Snake now, even if Kojima wants that". Requests can come from anybody, even those not working with the companies.
They can though. Kojima doesn't own Snake anymore so whether Kojima wants him or not means nothing. Konami gets final say,

Yeah, Requests can come from anybody which makes all reason not to hold much water

On another note as someone who pays a lot of attention to story writing; Bosses are not inherently Villains. They're only Antagonists. Antagonists can be a Villain or a Hero. Same thing works with a Protagonist. A Heroic Antagonist can exist(in fact, Sonic Adventure 2 is a great example of having quite a few of these. In the Dark Story, Sonic, Knuckles, and Tails are Heroic Antagonists to fight. In the Hero Story, Rouge is an actual Heroic Antagonist, as she strictly works with the good guys and is pretending to be a bad guy. She's a dubious hero, by all means, but still actually one. Shadow, Eggman, Gerald, and Biolizard are the actual villains of the game. G.U.N. is also designed to be a Heroic Antagonist(despite seeming neutral, anyway. The only time they're actually Villains is Sonic X outright, and only some members), and Amy just kind of... is there, among the various story characters. Things do change slightly when Shadow's game releases, as Gerald is now a Heroic Antagonist too, but that's due what was basically a minor retcon in the backstory. All they did was give the Eclipse Cannon another reason for existing and Shadow's backstory was expanded. ...It's also the only game where Shadow can be a Hero or Villain willingly depending the route(so it's never set in stone. There's not even an official route that ties to the final story, just theories).
But there are cartoons so that doesn't matter apparently
 
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Wonder Smash

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They can though. Kojima doesn't own Snake anymore so whether Kojima wants him or not means nothing. Konami gets final say,

Yeah, Requests can come from anybody but ones that matters are the owners.
It actually does mean something. It shows how much people want a character in Smash, as any request does.

Like I said, just because Kojima is not with Konami now, doesn't mean Nintendo shouldn't bother getting Snake back in again. They could see this as Sakurai doing this for his friend and it certainly wouldn't hurt Konami to allow it.
 
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Nabbitfan730

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It actually does mean something. It shows how much people want a character in Smash, as any request does.

Like I said, just because Kojima is not with Konami now, doesn't mean Nintendo shouldn't bother getting Snake back in again. They could see this as Sakurai doing this for his friend and it certainly wouldn't hurt Konami to allow it.
No, Snake shouldn't be cut for it nor should be added for the same reason. "Doing this for his friend" doesn't fly in negotiations especially for parties not involved no more. Nintendo and Konami are businesses, they couldn't care less.
 

SPEN18

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Practically, any third party character who came as DLC could be at risk. Simply because it's difficult to predict how the calculus changes when they have to be packaged into a base game rather than sold as a standalone add-on. It's clear from the frequency of 3rd party reps in DLC vs. in base that 3Ps are more financially worth it when they can be sold separately at a drastically higher dollar-per-character ratio.

To be honest, I think third party cuts in general are just unlikely. We have only had it happen once with Snake. Early 2010s Konami was in a rough spot and likely had negotiations break down. Cuts in general are super rare to begin with, and this is the only time it’s happened to a third party.
The history of cuts is public knowledge, but we've never seen what happens when trying to retain a roster as large and complex as Ult's.

Snake being the only third party cut so far doesn't mean much at all. While he was the only 3P cut in 4, there were only two 3Ps to retain in that transition, so I can turn around and say that was still 50% of the 3P roster that got cut. Really, the numbers are too small there for it to be the basis for a good argument either way. And in Ult, we all know they went all-in on doing EiH and on top of that had much more ease in resource recycling than can normally be expected. If the all-or-nothing proposition of EiH and the once-in-a-lifetime circumstance of the Wii-U-to-Switch jump hadn't been factors, then we almost certainly would have seen 3P cuts in Ult; in fact, the public statements on the difficulty of EiH suggest that even with basically everything being in retention's favor, some cuts of third parties could have easily happened.

Third parties would not be low priority due to how their licensing works
How can the licensing needs be anything but a disadvantage? Licensing makes third parties more difficult to add, and less worth it for Nintendo relative to the character's stature (i.e. an equally iconic Nintendo character is cheaper and less complicated to add). I could easily see the likes of Snake, Joker, Terry, and more be low priority under various sets of circumstances.

Nintendo themselves seem to really like the idea of third parties in Smash. They had executive control over Ultimate’s DLC. Out of our 12 downloadable characters (lumping in Aegis since it was one pack), 2/3 were third party. Nintendo seems very invested in the idea that Smash is gamings greatest celebration.
They like and care about third party IPs to the extent that it helps them sell their own software and their own hardware. Maybe Sakurai has a more personal investment (though he may already be out the door permanently for all we know), but I highly doubt Nintendo has any grander vision of Smash as a celebration of other people's properties except to the extent that such celebration brings extra attention to their own. And they recognize that it makes sense to (1) sprinkle in a few of the biggest names possible into the base game in order to spice things up for fans and bolster their back-of-the-box sloganing firepower; and (2) sell crossover packs as standalone add-ons, where the costs of licensing can be offset by the higher cost-to-content ratio. But having a few extra non-Sonic-and-Pac-Man-tier third parties in base is worthless relative to marketing their own characters, so I don't see how cost and priority for third parties wouldn't be relevant.

--

The only other thing I'll say for now is reiterate that it's a super pitfall to believe that corporate fallouts or buyouts are the only things that could get a third party character cut. Bringing back only the 7 pre-Ult third parties was hard enough; it literally cannot happen again without another blue moon situation. One simply cannot ignore matters of resource constraints and priority levels in addition to the potential licensing issues.
 

Wonder Smash

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No, Snake shouldn't be cut for it nor should be added for the same reason. "Doing this for his friend" doesn't fly in negotiations especially for parties not involved no more. Nintendo and Konami are businesses, they couldn't care less.
Being businesses doesn't mean they can't do things for personal reasons, as it could still benefit them in the end. After all, let's not forget that Kojima practically "begged" to get Snake in Smash in the first place as a personal request and not because of some kind of "business" reason.
 
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CapitaineCrash

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probably not gameplay wise (maybe a move or two) but I'd like to see them get alts based on their more recent games
Oh yeah I'm all in for beard Ryu in Smash. He shouldn't be a alt, just make SF6 Ryu the base Ryu.

On that topic, I wonder what other characters could have big visuals change. Samus comes to mind, maybe the Dread armor could be her main costume and the classic orange armor be an alt. For Sora if he come back they could also put a KH4 skins. Bowser fury could be a very cool alt too, tho I feel like they could keep that one for a Final smash instead.
 

toonito

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Oh yeah I'm all in for beard Ryu in Smash. He shouldn't be a alt, just make SF6 Ryu the base Ryu.

On that topic, I wonder what other characters could have big visuals change. Samus comes to mind, maybe the Dread armor could be her main costume and the classic orange armor be an alt. For Sora if he come back they could also put a KH4 skins. Bowser fury could be a very cool alt too, tho I feel like they could keep that one for a Final smash instead.
for Ryu and Ken i was thinking 4 alts be their classic costumes, 2 from SF5 and 2 from SF6

if Chun-Li ever made it i would put 4 classic, 2 Alpha, and 2 SF6.

for Kazuya I'd 2 Classic, 2 Suit, 2 Vest, and 2 alt from SFxT

for Terry I always preferred the red jacket from the original Fatal Fury game. (1st one) so I probably include 2 of that one, 2 classic and 4 Garou outfits.

 
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Wonder Smash

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Ryu should have gotten his bearded SFV design as an alt in Smash.
Nah, I don't really like his bearded look.

Oh yeah I'm all in for beard Ryu in Smash. He shouldn't be a alt, just make SF6 Ryu the base Ryu.
Absolutely not. Leave Ryu's base look the way it is. Him in the regular karate gi will always be his most iconic look and it's used in all of his crossover appearances.
 
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dream1ng

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They literally explained this in Sephiroth’s presentation. The big reason FFVII had lacking content was the fact FFVII has Byzantine ownership rights in regards to its music. We also know Sephiroth was being planned at least since 2017, well before there was any useable content from the remake. It’s likely they just decided at that point to hold over the content like Spirits for Sephiroth’s pack.
Music rights would have nothing to do with why FF is the only base third-party series without an AT. Nor why Cloud couldn't even get his Nomura art until the DLC. If Sephiroth was planned prior to launch, getting less new FF7 content in base than the others would be understandable, so as to not neglect the pack, but you can still make a pack without neglecting new base content either, even without music. There's lots of FF7 material out there.

It's likely Sakurai said "well we don't have the music, so **** it, zero new FF content in base"? Doesn't sound like the perfectionist content fiend we know him as to me. Nor does it sound like Nintendo, who gave Sakurai the budget to license IP for base that they didn't really need to, like Bomberman, Virtua Fighter, Monster Hunter, Shovel Knight, and those third-party spirits. It's not like they were really clutching the purse strings on this game.

Sounds like Square, the company that says "we get exclusive Mii waves, even if that means they're smaller". Sounds like the company from which Cloud, a character that was very difficult to bring back for base (because Square prefers being DLC) hails. Sounds like the company Sakurai said were very painstaking about the models of their characters. Sounds like the company where the only CG trailers their characters appear in are for their own characters.

Heck, Nintendo is the company that chose Hero and Sephiroth. If square was truly that hard to work with, I doubt square would have been on their shortlist twice. Would I have liked it if FFVII had more than two songs and spirits in the bass game? Absolutely, but the image of square being some miserly company that almost held Cloud back is just super outdated.
Square being as cooperative as the rest and Square being so uncooperative Nintendo wouldn't even bother aren't the only two options. The truth is somewhere in the middle.

And Smash has never shied away from hard work in acquiring characters, so a company could be austere and the Smash team will still attempt to work with them if they want the character.
 

Oracle Link

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They literally explained this in Sephiroth’s presentation. The big reason FFVII had lacking content was the fact FFVII has Byzantine ownership rights in regards to its music. We also know Sephiroth was being planned at least since 2017, well before there was any useable content from the remake. It’s likely they just decided at that point to hold over the content like Spirits for Sephiroth’s pack. Heck, Nintendo is the company that chose Hero and Sephiroth. If square was truly that hard to work with, I doubt square would have been on their shortlist twice. Would I have liked it if FFVII had more than two songs and spirits in the bass game? Absolutely, but the image of square being some miserly company that almost held Cloud back is just super outdated.
——————
To be honest, I think third party cuts in general are just unlikely. We have only had it happen once with Snake. Early 2010s Konami was in a rough spot and likely had negotiations break down. Cuts in general are super rare to begin with, and this is the only time it’s happened to a third party. Almost all of the cuts we have seen were low priority vets that were planned at some point or cut due to technical issues with the 3DS. Third parties would not be low priority due to how their licensing works, so you would need a breakdown in relations like what happened with Konami.

Nintendo themselves seem to really like the idea of third parties in Smash. They had executive control over Ultimate’s DLC. Out of our 12 downloadable characters (lumping in Aegis since it was one pack), 2/3 were third party. Nintendo seems very invested in the idea that Smash is gamings greatest celebration. Sakurai has had that mentality as well for a while. Unless both of them have a fundamental shift in philosophy, we won’t see that many third party cuts. Smash rarely cuts characters, and Nintendo likes third parties. They know they sell. Even if they have to license everything, it’s easier to license these characters now than before. They already have contracts with all those companies for these character licenses. Sure, licensing everyone is expensive, but smash prints money and all these companies want in on that gravy train. I doubt Nintendo will be looking towards cutting third parties.

I also doubt any of these companies would outright want to leave Smash at this point. Smash prints money and they know they are licensing their characters to a trustworthy handler. Ultimate was the best selling fighting game ever. It would take Nintendo either not wanting to work with them or a breakdown of relations for cuts to happen for a normal next Smash. If the roster is hard rebooted and we see a thanos snap sure, but that is highly unlikely with modern Nintendo.

Honestly the only real way I think we would see third party cuts besides a breakdown in relations is through buyouts. Depending on who buys a company or could hurt relations going forward. If Sony bought Konami, we wouldn’t see Snake or the Belmonts most likely for example. Speculation on the corporate politics of companies and potential bailouts though is just a waste of time. We won’t know who or what is a buyout target unless the signs are super obvious.

Even if we did not get EiH 2.0, I doubt Smash would see a thanos snap for third parties. We would probably see cuts for similar reasons to why we saw them in Brawl or 4: some characters just aren’t as much of a priority. Some people might want Smash to go back to a “Nintendo All Stars game”, but that is just not going to happen. For starters, that era never really existed, even as far back as the Melee era third parties in Smash were considered. Even if that era did exist, it’s long gone by now. The genie has been out of the bottle for years now. This first party elitism is very rare outside of Smashboards. Smashboards attracts a hyper niche audience and is far from a representative sample. Most of the community in the wild like Ultimate and like third parties. I doubt that with how Nintendo, Sakurai, and the current third parties are right now third party cuts are even that likely. More likely than not, the lions share of our third parties will return.
Keep in mind the reason why only snake was cut is this:
So Bawl only had sonic and snake and no way in hell they cut sonic
Than 4 added some more third Parties
BUT the next game was Ultimate (or also special) and that game brought back everyone including Pichu and Younglink who was replaced by toon link!
So Yeah we will most likely have Third Party Cuts i mean imagine if they cut for example Dedede and Meta Knight but they Keep Richter and Ken imagine the ammount of people rightly being upset about this!
So i think theyll cut an equal ammount in relation of first and third Parties'!
 

Sucumbio

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I'm guessing that, at least for the base game, Square-Enix seems to be difficult to work with. (either that, or a bunch of their properties have unusual legal issues that no other company has to deal with)

From what's been said, "Everyone Is Here" almost didn't happen, and Square-Enix only gave the barest possible minimum for Ultimate's base game (two songs, with neither of them being remixes, and no artwork until DLC), so they're the likely culprit. It wasn't until Sephiroth's DLC that Final Fantasy got more spirits beyond Cloud, artwork for Cloud's spirit, and a bunch of songs that probably should have been in the base game.
I'm in the camo of any 3rd p who was base in Ultimate is coming back buuuut I do understand one or two could be cut and as such I'd be more inclined to agree here about Square losing a rep though prolly seph not cloud but maybe a whole new se rep? Not sure about Hero, but leaning toward he'll be back.
 

Oracle Link

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I'm in the camo of any 3rd p who was base in Ultimate is coming back buuuut I do understand one or two could be cut and as such I'd be more inclined to agree here about Square losing a rep though prolly seph not cloud but maybe a whole new se rep? Not sure about Hero, but leaning toward he'll be back.
You do know that dragonquest was the first modern jrpg right? So if smash wants to call itself GAming Celebration hes like one of the most important third partys to keep! and hes huge in japan!
 

dream1ng

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I'm interested in contextualizing these suggested possible third-party cuts in the (rough) total amount of cuts you'll think we'll get.

Because, if we work with the hypothetical that licensing won't present a challenge for any already acquired third-party, minimal cuts doesn't make sense by nature of what the next Smash will be: either a work from basically the ground up, in which nearing the current character count isn't feasible, or what Ultimate was to 4, in which case loss would be solely down to licensing.

It's not going to be this weird middle-ground of losing like a dozen or so characters.

So it'd either be keep them all (licensing aside), or likely lose a lot more than just a select few. As, for the most part, they are very big names, and therefore big draws, we may retain proportionally more than some other categories, but still. If cuts happen, they're going to be more than glancing. Because, realistically, if we start over, the cap for veterans is probably like half of what we have now.
 
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HyperSomari64

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Here's the smartest move of the Smash team: All non-Nintendo (Third-Party) franchises stay for the following Smash...except Sonic because this will be a reference to his exclusion in Project X Zone.

:4pacman:
 

HyperSomari64

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On the topic of cuts Nintendo should just go with "Nobody is Here". That's right, cut everyone! With this one simple trick, nobody can complain that some annoying veteran stayed while they cut your main. It's the perfect solution.
Something of a "Next Generation" with characters being replaced with a new age of fighters from:
1. Or characters from already-represented franchises replacing the old ones.
2. Or new fighters from new franchises (this may include non-video game characters)
 

Perkilator

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On the topic of cuts Nintendo should just go with "Nobody is Here". That's right, cut everyone! With this one simple trick, nobody can complain that some annoying veteran stayed while they cut your main. It's the perfect solution.
"Oh no, it's melting! My precious Steve tech! Gone forever!"
Gone forever.png

banshee screeching
 

CapitaineCrash

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On the topic of cuts Nintendo should just go with "Nobody is Here". That's right, cut everyone! With this one simple trick, nobody can complain that some annoying veteran stayed while they cut your main. It's the perfect solution.
Also the stage count should be: 0.

"We must be crazy"
 

TCT~Phantom

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IDK what happened, but I hadn't gotten any notifications for this place since Friday. Did I miss anything?
People decided to talk about cuts for the fifteenth million time instead of something actually interesting and engaging.

Let’s instead talk about something interesting besides retreading cuts discussion. Let’s talk about the eShop closing down. It’s really the end of an era, after the 27th those digital games will no longer be able to be purchased. I remember how much that era shaped Smash speculation. Picks like Shantae, Shovel Knight, Professor Layton, and Phoenix Wright thrived in that era. I remember the hype around games like Azran Legacy, Dual Destinies, or Pirates Curse. I remember that brief blip of Bravely Default speculation. I remember how people talked about a Pushmo stage for Smash 4. That era is going to be cut off through legitimate means in days now. What are some of your non smash highlights of that era?
 

chocolatejr9

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People decided to talk about cuts for the fifteenth million time instead of something actually interesting and engaging.

Let’s instead talk about something interesting besides retreading cuts discussion. Let’s talk about the eShop closing down. It’s really the end of an era, after the 27th those digital games will no longer be able to be purchased. I remember how much that era shaped Smash speculation. Picks like Shantae, Shovel Knight, Professor Layton, and Phoenix Wright thrived in that era. I remember the hype around games like Azran Legacy, Dual Destinies, or Pirates Curse. I remember that brief blip of Bravely Default speculation. I remember how people talked about a Pushmo stage for Smash 4. That era is going to be cut off through legitimate means in days now. What are some of your non smash highlights of that era?
Well, it's not really Nintendo-related, but I think that was around the time I was playing AdventureQuest Worlds... which is actually getting a rerelease on Steam sometime this year. Glad ONE part of my childhood is allowed to live again...

As for the eShop... let's be real, it was gonna happen no matter what. All we can do now is hope at some point in the future, some of those games get rereleases.
 

LiveStudioAudience

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Honestly there's so many little franchises from the 3DS era that I'd love to see exist on Switch. The big downside to the end of the traditional portable console is that so many companies carved out their own niches via the less demanding context of a DS/3DS and that with the full blown move to HD, a lot of them have and will struggle to produce titles in that format.

Even beyond that, it was nice to simply have an alternative where even the big companies could effectively experiment and produce content via lower cost releases. Mario Golf World Tour might be the strongest Mario sports game in the last 14 years specifically because it wasn't a title that needed to be rushed or drip feed its content. Same with Kirby where arguably the greatest game in the series (Planet Robobot) came out when many other older Nintendo franchises were struggling because HAL Labs used stuff like the various portable releases to effectively perfect the core design.
 
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HyperSomari64

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People decided to talk about cuts for the fifteenth million time instead of something actually interesting and engaging.

Let’s instead talk about something interesting besides retreading cuts discussion. Let’s talk about the eShop closing down. It’s really the end of an era, after the 27th those digital games will no longer be able to be purchased. I remember how much that era shaped Smash speculation. Picks like Shantae, Shovel Knight, Professor Layton, and Phoenix Wright thrived in that era. I remember the hype around games like Azran Legacy, Dual Destinies, or Pirates Curse. I remember that brief blip of Bravely Default speculation. I remember how people talked about a Pushmo stage for Smash 4. That era is going to be cut off through legitimate means in days now. What are some of your non smash highlights of that era?
Speaking of which, when Monolith is going to work in a PxZ3 with Sonic included?
 
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