Pikmin 4: I doubt anyone expects Pikmin or Olimar to be cut, but the game just continues to prove Nintendo is invested in the Pikmin franchise. I don't think any of the new captains have much of a chance of being unique characters. However, the more types of Pikmin that are made, the more I think a new Pikmin character may be added to show them. Olimar's moveset is already one of the most complicated out there and it doesn't include every Pikmin type. Pikmin like Rock or Ice Pikmin may be fun additions to a new character. The dog seems like a good assist trophy.
Xenoblade Chronicles 3 Expansion Pack DLC: We all knew this was coming, so I don't think the content surprised us too much. I don't think the DLC changes anyone's shot of inclusion. Noah and/or Mio are in good spots, but I feel their inclusion is dependent on timing. Xenoblade as a franchise is moving much faster than I personally anticipated. There always seems to be something new and I'm glad the franchise is healthy.
Samba de Amigo: Party Central: Look, I love Amigo, but he isn't being included as anything other than maybe a spirit or whatever the new equivalent is. Glad the franchise is alive though.
Fashion Dreamer: Okay I think this is impactful but in a negative way. This is being may by the Style Savvy developers. But it isn't a Style Savvy game, and it isn't being published by Nintendo as far as I know. Part of me wonders if Nintendo is moving away from the Style Savvy IP. If so, a character from that franchise may be doomed.
Dead Cells: Return to Castlevania DLC: Castlevania is alive...? Kinda? The IP is in such a strange state of limbo that I'm just glad Konami seems to let others use it.
TRON Identity: Lmao.
Ghost Trick: Phantom Detectice: Well this is a surprise. Ghost Trick is a pretty small Capcom IP so I don't see it being referenced at all. Sissel being back is nice.
DECAPOLICE: This seems neat, but its the reveal of a brand new IP. We have no idea how popular the game will be. I will say that Level 5 has bigger IPs that would probably require more attention.
Bayonetta Origins: Cereza and the Lost Demon: Pretty sure most of us felt confident that Bayonetta is going to stick around. I do think that an IP that is willing to experiment with spinoffs is a sign of confidence. If Bayonetta was a struggling franchise like it used to be, this game wouldn't exist. Bayonetta is probably going to stay with Nintendo for the foreseeable future.
Splatoon 3 Expansion Pass: Yeah Splatoon is still really big and really healthy. The DLC doesn't change that, but I do think we'll see another Splatoon character next game. I do find it interesting that Callie and Marie are highlighted so prominently.
Disney Illusion Island: Mickey and friends aren't getting into Smash, but I guess this means Nintendo and Disney have a good relationship? Maybe its a good sign for Sora? I dunno. I guess TRON Identity also signifies that but... lmao.
Fire Emblem Engage Expansion Pass: I mean, every Fire Emblem character playable in Smash is in Engage now. Engage's impact will almost entirely help Alear and no one else. Other Fire Emblem characters included have already been noted to be popular and marketable. Engage's DLC is just a continuation of that.
Harmony: The Fall of Reverie: I have no real thoughts here. I think this is just going to release and fade away sadly.
Octopath Traveler II: Okay hot take time. I think an Octopath character or a Bravely character are a lot more likely than people think. Nintendo is really holding these series close. They get major marketing promotion and even a presence in Smash. I think that if these franchises continue, we can see them included like Bayonetta and Banjo were. More minor third parties with close Nintendo ties. (I know both were stated to be included from the ballot but I digress).
We Love Katamari REROLL+ Royal Reverie: Katamari is really fun and is more popular than some would have you believe. Namco still has a lot of juggernaut franchises that aren't in yet and Nintendo doesn't seem super invested in the Katamari franchise. I don't see it.
Sea of Stars: This seems like a new IP. We'll have to wait and see.
Omega Strikers: Same as the above. New IPs from small studios are crapshoots.
Etrian Odyssey Origins Collection: It's alive! This is a big surprise for me. I thought this franchise was kind of dead after dual screen handhelds went out of style. I don't se Etrian Odyssey getting anything in Smash, but please buy the game. It deserves to live.
Advance Wars 1 + 2 Re-boot Camp: IT'S ALIVE. Okay a dormant Nintendo IP coming back is always something to keep an eye on. That said, I don't know if Advance Wars can be included right now. The franchise is historically unpopular in Japan, even if its well regarded in the west. For what ever reason, Andy, Sami and Max don't seem to be popular requests for characters, like fellow GBA icon Isaac. Advance Wars just seems to be cursed for whatever reason. If it gets a new game and cements itself as Nintendo pillar, then I'll jump on the Andy train immediately. It's just so hard to be confident about anything regarding this franchise.
Kirby's Return to Dream Land Deluxe: Okay, this game does two things for me. First, it continues Bandana Waddle Dee's immense prominence in the Kirby franchise. And second, it cements Magalor as the runner up behind Bandana Waddle Dee. I've been saying it for a while but Magalor is really popular in the Kirby fandom. The little egg dude is who I'd bet on for a fifth Kirby character. Kirby, Meta Knight, King Dedede, Bandana Waddle Dee and Magalor would make for a pretty awesome Kirby roster. I still expect Bandana Waddle Dee first however.
Game Boy and Game Boy Advance on Nintendo Switch Online: As cool as this is, I find this largely inconsequential. Virtual Console and NSO rereleases largely don't mean much in the grand scheme of things and as far as I'm aware, they've never impacted a Smash title. The most it says is that Nintendo still cares about things like Golden Sun, Wario Land and F-Zero. They aren't forgotten and are still seen as valuable IPs. They just aren't priorities.
Metroid Prime Remastered: Even if my own personal hype is THROUGH THE ROOF. All this means is that Metroid continues to be out of dormancy. We've known that since the dual reveal of Samus Returns and Prime 4. While I'm ecstatic that Metroid is in a healthy condition again, this means nothing in regards to Smash. Samus, Zero Suit Samus, Ridley and Dark Samus are all included already and I don't see their inclusions hinging on this.
Master Detectives Archive: RAIN CODE: Spike Chunsoft seems to be a relatively lowkey partner for Nintendo. They've made lots of games for their systems and even partnered up with the Pokemon Company for the Mystery Dungeon series. Still, I don't think Chunsoft is in a position to get anything in Smash. They're just too small.
Baten Kaitos 1 & II HD Remaster: Probably the thing that shocked me the most in this direct. Baten Kaitos is a cool franchise and it has some representation in Smash. The valedictory elegy is a track from the sequel, Baten Kaitos Origins. Don't get confused though, Baten Kaitos 2 and Origins are the same game. Though from what I understand, the Baten Kaitos games have some rights complications. Monolith made both games. Namco published the first one and Nintendo published the second. It's good that the games are returning, but unless a new Baten Kaitos game is made, I don't see this appearing much.
Fantasy Life i: The Girl who Steals Time: It's not a new IP, but I honestly don't know enough about the franchise to really comment.
Professor Layton and The New World of Steam: Okay, this is a biggie. Layton as an IP is huge. It's arguably Level 5's biggest IP with Yokai Watch as the only other contender. Nintendo has also historically been invested in the Layton franchise, giving it a lot of advertising and positive press. If Layton truly makes a successful comeback, I think he's in a fantastic position to be included in Smash Bros. As an IP, Professor Layton is one of those ones I'd watch out for, like with Octopath Traveler and Bravely Default.
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Wave 4 DLC: Hooray for Birdo. There's not much else that can be said. Birdo's pretty low on the Mario character totem pole.
Minecraft Legends: Nintendo has made their interest in Minecraft clear. This is just a continuation of that.
Blanc: It's a new IP made by Gearbox. Unfortunately, I don't think this'll do very well.
Mega Man Battle Network Legacy Connection: Mega Man seems to be in an almost healthy state. I'd really love Battle Network content in Smash but I don't find it very likely. If anything, I expect the X series to get the next big content jump.
Have a Nice Death: You can pretty much copy and paste what I said for Blanc here.
WBSC eBaseball: Power Pros: I know this is an ongoing franchise, but I don't think I know enough to comment here either.
Disney Dreamlight Valley: Well, don't ever doubt that Disney and Nintendo have a positive working relationship.
Tales of Symphonia Remastered: MY BOY LLOYD! Fanboying aside, the remaster doesn't change much. Tales is in a great spot to earn a new character in the next game and Lloyd was one of the frontrunners already. If anything, this should just make it clear that Symphonia is one of the more important Tales games. We're probably going to get Lloyd, Yuri or Alphen next game.
The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom: It feels weird to be this close to a new Zelda game and know so darn little about it. As of now, all I can say its that we'll probably see BOTW designs for Link and maybe the others in the new Smash.