I think alot of the Weird Omissions of Certain Franchises or Characters from any sort of Representation is due to certain factors
-Nintendo Not going Balls to the Wall in terms of Licensing. even though Spirits are PNGs, there's assumingly still Licensing costs and the need for the 3rd party to Sign off on it. Plus remember they need to Create Spirit battles too, which needs 3rd party Approval for how it goes.
-They are saving some of the Licensing for Certain Characters for the Next Smash game, or Ultimate Continuation game. Some might be for Playable characters on the Base roster, meaning they need to be made sure they have the Negotiations down for the Project Plan. Some might be for Assists or Mii Costumes, and etc
Gonna disagree and say we are only a couple years away IMO.
Not sure if you guys know this or not, but Furakawa had an investors meeting and was asked about next gen consoles and pressed on the issue when he tried to avoid it. His response was, paraphrasing of course, that 'they are in the planning stages for announcement and release' which, if that doesn't quite click right away, means they are in the planning stages for ANNOUNCING and RELEASING their next gen console and NOT in the planning stages of DESIGNING the next gen console.
In other words, Furakawa might as well have said 'it's a matter of when, not if' which to me means that, much like I already thought, the next gen Switch with 4K and whatnot always was a thing but got leaked way earlier than Nintendo would have liked. They already planned on having a slight update to the Switch with the OLED and everyone did that silly thing again where they disregard good information because it didn't pan out within their own sense of timely expectations.
When we first heard rumblings about it and then the OLED happened, I knew immediately that Nintendo was using this opportunity to convince people there was nothing the works so that they would be more likely to buy the OLED and throw people off their trail. It's mostly worked as well, but I feel like anyone can look at Bayo 3 and 3D Kirby and see that the Switch can barely handle these new games coming out. Nintendo is moving up in software, it's time for the hardware to keep up.
I'm going to toss out some of the other reasons I didn't mention in a previous post that 'Everyone Is Still Here!' is going to be a thing. This meeting with Furakawa confirming there is a next gen console in the works is a big part of it, but I already knew there was one: all this does is let is know they are ready to roll this thing out in the next couple years, so we have a timeframe between 1-3 years left before this happens.
Sakurai's own language in his most recent Famitsu is a big deal. Now, I will insist this here since I think people will make dumb assumptions if I don't, but I'm not saying we have proof Sakurai is already working on a new Smash title. We have no way of knowing that for sure at this point, and I wouldn't say anything otherwise. What I AM saying is that the language Sakurai used is his generic 'this is the last Smash for now and nothing is in the works at the moment' that he has used multiple times in his career. This is very safe and generic language and, more importantly, it's very similar to what he said at the end of Smash 4...you know, when he was already working on Ultimate shortly after? Like, in the planning stages at the very least in early 2016? In other words, Sakurai has done this old dog and pony show before, and the last time he did it he actually was working on Smash already. Thus, he COULD be in the planning stages of another title for a next gen console already and no one would ever be the wiser...well, MOST wouldn't.
What is also important is his language about not thinking anyone can replace what he brings to Smash, which matches up to his interviews with Harada, and his talk about not wanting to disappoint fans and his worry about making cuts. This first part is proof that Sakurai will be at the helm of Smash until he physically cannot do it anymore, so no, he's not retiring...though you may have gotten that already after it hasn't happened since Brawl. The second portion is proof enough TO ME that we will get a glorified port of Ultimate on a next gen console in a couple years, and it will have every single character that has been in the game all the way up to and including Sora. Of course it will have a number of QoL improvements and new features and more characters, but I think it will be largely the same...though I would be more than pleased to be wrong and outside of the roster it gets many massive changes.
One last thing to mention here is that Furakawa is the gamer president where as Kimishima was the businessman president. Sakurai wasn't given the option to delay Ultimate because it was only a couple months from coming out the door by the time Furakawa took charge. However, now Sakurai gets to make a game with a president that seems to be kinder and more understanding and more giving of creative freedom, which could easily mean that Sakurai gets more power back in regards to character choices as well as how DLC is done. Additionally, Furakawa believes that the SNES-Gamecube Era of Nintendo are the best Nintendo has ever been, which gives a big boost to the chances that a lot of these missing characters could and likely will show up in the base game of a Ultimate: Definitive Edition.
I think
pupNapoleon
gets to have some credit as he was the one who seemed to really bring back this topic around Sora's announcement, though I most definitely talked about this long before that and was basically asked to turn myself in to the psyche ward. I am very much convinced this is the route they will take, it's just perfectly set up.
So Since you mentioned all of this, I kind of want to say my theory on what I think might be going on with Ultimate and such
Nintendo Expected Ultimate to be a Success I Imagine, but I don't think it expected it to be the Success it ended up being, and I think Other Companies looking in didn't expect it either
I Imagine most of the Fighter Pass characters had their Negotiations in talk somewhere between 2015-2017, at least in it Starting in those times. What I think might have happened is that somewhere in 2019, Nintendo either were more Confident to Approach other Companies for Potential Smash Inclusion, or Vice versa in that other Companies approached them for Smash Inclusion, or a Combination of both
While FP1 and FP2 were in Development, I actually do think that from 2019-2021 (Maybe potentially into 2022, but not too much into the year), Nintendo/Sakurai spent all of that time on Negotiating with other Companies for Smash Inclusion
The thing is that I Imagine that alot of Deals went through, So many that I think it would be Impossible to make all of them happen in a Reasonable timeframe with the Small Dev Team Sakurai and the Team had on DLC. I think what's happening is they might stop Development on Ultimate for Now, Finalize all the Plans into one Project Plan, and Get a Regular Sized Dev Team (Perhaps Bigger than the one working for Ultimate), to go ahead and Develop an Ultimate Continuation in a Reasonable Timeframe. Plus it be in Nintendo's Best interest to sell this continuation as a $60 game, rather than just more DLC Packs
I think Sora being a Late inclusion to FP2 is I think Proof that Nintendo and Sakurai did not stop Negotiating/Talking with Companies in regards to Smash, Along with Some of the Mii Costumes like Doomguy (Remember the interview that implied nothing serious was taken in regards to Doomguy). Sora was mainly added on because he was the Most Requested character, so he fits with the Theme of Appealing to the Ballot that Ultimate Established.
As a Sonic fan myself, I'm going to say another rep from the series is highly unlikely especially when in Ultimate there were so much golden opportunity to the rep the series such as having Shadow, which would've been a prime candidate for Echo Fighters, Knuckles already take his place as AT, Ultimate Life Form for the Ultimate Smash, just regulated as another AT and with Sonic's 30th Anniversary happening this year with deals happening with other games yet Smash, a prime candidate for this sort of thing, once again missing opportunity which would be perfect.
Honestly disappointed with Shadow's dismal as much as Geno, if not more so as you can't even used that relevance/popularity/25 years against him either. I guess it's because Sonic isn't popular in Japan and Sakurai and Nintendo don't really care for the series which is a sham and I guess Sega would rep their other franchises instead of their main mascot, Sega always does silly decisions with Sonic and nothing else.
Also yeah, I agree why were the support threads anyways? I always thought the threads were tied to the characters instead of the respective smash games that are recent. Also I agree support threads would make things easier separately than in one hodgepodge. I had something in mind cooking up for the support thread to participate in to keep the support going but it's going much harder if we were smudged together than speaking to one thread individually.
As cool as and hype-inducing it would be for my favourite animanga to get repped in the Smash, unless its a Smash vs Shonen Jump type deal or a final bonus character that ends the Smash Game, I wouldn't want Goku in either. Another reason I'm not a fan of this "Popularity rules all" people keep pushing. Are we really going to sacrifice identity and vision of the franchise people are clinging onto just for the sake of big names? I don't like "celebration of gaming" myself but at least that has a limit and identity to aim for that it's just video games and that's it.
The second point is what it also why say to these people, if popularity is all to end all, why did characters such Tekken, Fatal Fury and Kingdom Hearts get over GTA, FIFA and COD? The latter are much more bigger games that latter in popularity and relevancy so what's stopping Nintendo from doing that? Why have Sora when we can have Tetris Block? Why have Gaming when you have media that is popular? Who cares if Smash was about Nintendo's History and seeing your favourite characters fight, Popularity is all that matters right? Smash Bros? More like Super Popularity Bros amrite?
As someone that Kept pushing for Shadow in Ultimate even after the Assist Trophy Confirmation, I might have been too Impatient in trying to force the idea that he had to happen in this game no matter what
It's seems that everything in Ultimate, including the Fighter Pass, was decided much earlier than when the Characters got in. In regards to Sonic, Him being less Popular in Japan is a big deal, but I really doubt Sega would be the one to deny the addition of a 2nd Character, especially since they usually don't just Crossover Sonic Himself, but also his fellow Friends, Rivals, and Villains.
I think it was just bad timing since Remember that around the Time the Project Plan was made, Sonic was in it's worst time since Sonic 06, due to the Sonic Boom Catastrophe. Sonic Dash was a Popular Mobile game, and the Cartoon was pretty good, but the Games and Sonic's Reputation was in the gutter. Plus remember that Sonic Boom Rise of Lyric was one of the games that was apart of the Nintendo Exclusivity deal. It being among the Worst, if not the Worst Sonic game ever probably made Nintendo feel burned, especially since the other 2 games (Lost World and Rio Olympics) weren't the best games either.
Right now though, Sonic has gotten good portion of his Reputation back. Mania was great, Forces was Mediocre, but some people still loved it and it was one of the Most Played PS Plus Games of all time, Sonic had a Successful move and is getting another one, he's getting a Netflix series, IDW Comics doing well, even in Japan, all the Merchandise and Crossovers. Sonic has not only managed to prove he could survive any Catastrophe, but also get some sort of Momentum in many avenues
So going into This Ultimate Continuation or Smash 6, Sonic is looking much better than before, and The requests for a 2nd Sonic character was also at it's Apex, and it wasn't even Small before. I have reason to believe this now is now for Someone like Tails, Eggman, Shadow, & Knuckles to get in
Now for Popularity of franchises, there are some things to keep in Mind
The Popularity of the Franchise heavily matters. Just in Regards to the Fighter Passes, the Main Choices Nintendo was rallying behind was Dragon Quest, Minecraft, and Tekken, which are the biggest franchises represented in the DLC, and in the case of Minecraft, among the biggest in the game. The reason they were the main choices is that when Sakurai talked about the Inclusion of Hero, Steve, and Kazuya, Nintendo was Explicitly Mentioned as a Request from Nintendo, which you don't really find with characters like Joker, Sephiroth, Terry, etc, even though Nintendo allowed their Inclusion
The other thing is that remember that Beyond the Popularity of the Franchise, Nintendo and Sakurai have to have the means to be able to Represent the Franchise and Characters in question in Smash, both from a Licensing standpoint and also a Game standpoint.
While figuring out how to Represent Minecraft and Tekken was a challenge, it probably be much, much more hard to represent something like COD, GTA, and FIFA. FIFA has all the crazy Licensing that would need to be done for Real Likeliness, that it might not even be worth it, GTA has all the Controversial material and Reputation that needs to be Addressed (Plus they need to talk to Rockstar, who to be honest I'm unsure in their Interest in Smash), and COD is kind of the Same with stuff like the Realistic Military weaponry and such
But we still need some kirby and zelda representation! and if were talking about interesting evergreens including Dark matter
This guy:
would be a great choice for a kirby rep!
When it comes to mickey i knew that 4th party arguments would start as soon as sora is in so yeah my disliking of sora was pretty reasonable!
(also im 100% sure that sakurai choose to not have any disney stuff in!)
When it comes to the New franchises thing my opinion is: Having less franchises creates more variety! after all if a new franchise is included the only logical choice is a main Character (min min and kazuya do count) meaning the roster feels more samey and less iconic battles like Mario vs Bowser or Kirby vs dedede can happen!
When it comes to geno most of his moves are pretty generic i arguee mallow has a more interesting moveset! its mostly his puupet aesthetic that draws people in! but to be fair adding more attacks to mii fighters would be nice although i think it should be attacks from the Base chars! i just want some really indepth mii customization!
The thing I will say is among 4th Party Inclusions, Mickey is the only character I would say is Plausible at this moment. No Goku, No Batman, No Spiderman, No Wolverine, No Darth Vader, etc
The reason being that for one, the Licensing would be easier in relation since Disney I believe is the only party that would need to be Involved in regards to getting Mickey, and not even other Sub companies either, since there may be some piece in the contract that even though Disney owns Marvel and Lucasarts, they need to be on board with the idea as well otherwise Disney won't be able to use their contents
Keep in Mind that in the Making of KH3, I believe it was said that getting the rights to use Marvel and Star Wars would be Monumental undertaking, that it wouldn't be able to be done at the time, and this is the Same Franchise and game that's had Disney Characters since day 1. Kingdom Hearts has also has some Liberal takes on Mickey (well in relation to other sources of media) in the first place
But the Main Reason I actually look at him as a Possibility is I actually think Disney themselves would be the ones that would Push the Idea of Mickey in Smash. Disney I'm sure recognizes the Large Appeal of having it's Original Characters crossover in a Game like Smash. They recognized that idea then Kingdom Hearts was conceived, and Nintendo I.Ps have always had a larger Appeal (and still do) than Square I.Ps on average. Smash has Outsold Kingdom Hearts, by Millions and Millions of Copies
I don't think Nintendo would push the idea of trying to have Mickey in Smash, that's not what I'm trying to say. I think they would be content in just having Sora, and keeping to the Video game Origin tradition. However If Disney offered the Opportunity, I heavily doubt Nintendo would refuse, because Nintendo knows how big of a Deal it would be. It would be a huge undertaking, as Disney is gonna be quite Picky, but if Disney are the ones that most behind the idea, that makes things easier, as Disney would know everything that goes into Making a Smash fighter and what characters have to be able to do in the game.
and I don't think Sakurai would veto it. He would also know the Importance of the situation, and even in knowing the Undertaking that will be needed, If Nintendo AND Disney want him to Include Mickey Mouse, I don't think he would say no
As for Geno, I think Geno shows the Importance in having Flashy to your Moves. Geno's Moves aren't the most out of this world in terms of Functionality, but they look so Flashy that it kind of doesn't matter. Plus even then the Timed Hits mechanics would be a Interesting design decision to tackle