Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[HyperSomari64]

Spoiler: The true meaning of the yellow and purple chairs. (NSFW)

 

[Quillion]

I think if any old character got a positively acclaimed game that got alot of attention and sold very successfully, they would get a noticeable following for Smash regardless of leaks or fakes. All you really need are the right people for making the game and a good marketing campaign....

Much easier said than done.

That's not exactly limited to "old characters" to be fair.

But I would prefer resurrected old faces over pups like say Tracer circa Smash Ultimate. At least she'd be from an established franchise by next Smash.

 

[Perkilator]

The true meaning of the yellow and purple chairs. (NSFW)

Apologies for the flaming, but...

 

[dream1ng]

I think if any old character got a positively acclaimed game that got alot of attention and sold very successfully, they would get a noticeable following for Smash regardless of leaks or fakes. All you really need are the right people for making the game and a good marketing campaign....

Much easier said than done.

Though there are still some characters that can't seem to get a good foothold within the Smash fanbase despite being very successful and fully qualified. The relatively stark lack of demand for characters like Lara Croft, Ezio, Vault Boy, Pyramid Head, Commander Shepard, a Dark Souls character, etc. bely the fact that these are really prosperous series.

I think the "Nintendo factor" is still meaningful in accruing popularity. Either characters who seem to mesh better with a Nintendo cast, or those with a longstanding history of Nintendo support (or, ideally, both) seem to have an easier time garnering support.

It might seem like in this Master Chief's popularity wouldn't fit, but I think he has the Sonic thing going for him, where he actually, inversely, has a Nintendo association simply by being the rival mascot for like twenty years. Because people associate rivals with each other.

 

[Wonder Smash]

You know, hearing that Rayman was going to be a trophy in Smash 4 actually made me want to try out his games for the first time.

I played the first Rayman game on my PS3 but I never finished it (it was too hard). However, I did play Rayman Legends on the Wii U and it was so fun that I played all the way through it. He's already pretty Smash-oriented in that game alone. I don't see why anybody would be against his appearance in Smash.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

You know, hearing that Rayman was going to be a trophy in Smash 4 actually made me want to try out his games for the first time.

I played the first Rayman game on my PS3 but I never finished it (it was too hard). However, I did play Rayman Legends on the Wii U and it was so fun that I played all the way through it.

Stories like this show the beauty of Smash (and crossovers in general). I wish more people would look at unfamiliar franchises this way and not "I'm not familiar with this so I don't like it."

 

[jamesster445]

You know, hearing that Rayman was going to be a trophy in Smash 4 actually made me want to try out his games for the first time.

I played the first Rayman game on my PS3 but I never finished it (it was too hard). However, I did play Rayman Legends on the Wii U and it was so fun that I played all the way through it. He's already pretty Smash-oriented in that game alone. I don't see why anybody would be against his appearance in Smash.

Stories like this show the beauty of Smash (and crossovers in general). I wish more people would look at unfamiliar franchises this way and not "I'm not familiar with this so I don't like it."

Honestly for all of it's trouble, I loved the time during the Smash ballot. This was when I tried out the Wonderful 101, Advance Wars, Golden Sun and Shantae because people were really into those characters. Not everything clicked but it was nice to discover new things.

 

[Dinoman96]

The leak just made the people who liked him more visible. It's the same as Skull Kid and the chairs. Skull Kid was always popular, people just didn't have a reason to believe until the chairs.

I've said this many times but this is how it works for basically any character at this point lol. Ain't no one gonna be rallying for a character unless they have an actual good reason to believe they have a chance.

Geno and Banjo are both perfect examples of this, both of them have always been desired of course, but there was indeed a time where vocal online support had petered out for both of them, it wasn't until after 2015 where both characters started picking up steam again due to official endorsement from Sakurai and Phil Spencer respectively.

But I must say, in hindsight that's what I find impressive about the push from the K. Rool fanbase.

They didn't have any recent game appearances. They didn't have any faulty "insider" saying that he was in. They didn't even have Sakurai or some other official company spokesperson say "yeah, it'd be cool". They didn't have any sort of clear "evidence" that he could get in outside of a vague "vote for this character on the ballot and maybe they can get in". All they had was the sheer will power and perseverance of their fandom to get the croc in. Ridley's pretty much the same way.

Very much of a class of their own, they are.

 

[fogbadge]

maybe they were just chairs

 

[chocolatejr9]

Apologies for the flaming, but...
View attachment 362632

Not until 4.

maybe they were just chairs

WHAT? A pair chairs associated with THE Masahiro Sakurai being nothing more than a pair of chairs? PERISH THE THOUGHT!

(This is me doing my best tinfoil hat theorist impression).

 

[Aligo]

I still can't believe I believed in the Grinch leak at the time. Box theory was always right, if a wee bit disappointing.

 

[fogbadge]

Not until 4.

WHAT? A pair chairs associated with THE Masahiro Sakurai being nothing more than a pair of chairs? PERISH THE THOUGHT!

(This is me doing my best tinfoil hat theorist impression).

imagine what it would have been like if there had been a game about a purple chair and a yellow chair


hmm. i'm gonna right that one down

 

[Perkilator]

Stories like this show the beauty of Smash (and crossovers in general). I wish more people would look at unfamiliar franchises this way and not "I'm not familiar with this so I don't like it."

THIS. The mentality of trying something new is how I got into Fire Emblem, SNK and Tekken, just to name a few.

 

[Sucumbio]

What's the chairs thing again?

 

[Perkilator]

What's the chairs thing again?

Basically, in the August 2018 Smash Direct, there were two chairs (purple and yellow, respectively) in the background whenever Sakurai was on-screen. People took that and assumed a character with a similar color scheme (Waluigi especially, even though he was confirmed an Assist atrophy in June 2018) was being hinted at.

 

[Sucumbio]

Basically, in the August 2018 Smash Direct, there were two chairs (purple and yellow, respectively) in the background whenever Sakurai was on-screen. People took that and assumed a character with a similar color scheme (Waluigi especially, even though he was confirmed an Assist atrophy in June 2018) was being hinted at.

Nice. Haha maybe he put those there to elicit that exact mental connection and stir up the AT Deconfirm thing. But yeah there's all manner of potential meaning and yet sometimes a chair is just a chair. Still tho purple theory towards the end of DLC was exciting for me. And I totally missed the Grinch leak lol.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Basically, in the August 2018 Smash Direct, there were two chairs (purple and yellow, respectively) in the background whenever Sakurai was on-screen. People took that and assumed a character with a similar color scheme (Waluigi especially, even though he was confirmed an Assist atrophy in June 2018) was being hinted at.

Yeah, I remember a LOT of people refused to accept that Waluigi was deconfirmed right out the gate. It... wasn't a good time...

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

Basically, in the August 2018 Smash Direct, there were two chairs (purple and yellow, respectively) in the background whenever Sakurai was on-screen. People took that and assumed a character with a similar color scheme (Waluigi especially, even though he was confirmed an Assist atrophy in June 2018) was being hinted at.

Just to add some context to this, in a previous direct Sakurai had also decorated his office with a jungle theme. I believe King K. Rool was announced the following direct, so people were thinking the chairs were part of a similar scenario.

I heard there was a possibility that the chairs were identical to a set of chairs you could get in Animal Crossing, so that might have been an actual reference, but I don't know the truth to that. Seems both plausible and Rorschach-esque at the same time.

 

[Sucumbio]

I have to say I'd be pretty disappointed too but fortunately I didn't think he was a glaring omission at the time and now it seems he still may not be in some people's minds but to me he missin fo sho

Waluigi for Smash, please Nintendo!

 

[Opossum]

Basically, in the August 2018 Smash Direct, there were two chairs (purple and yellow, respectively) in the background whenever Sakurai was on-screen. People took that and assumed a character with a similar color scheme (Waluigi especially, even though he was confirmed an Assist atrophy in June 2018) was being hinted at.

Dude, you really need to let the Waluigi hate go, especially now that you're using it for the purposes of revisionism.

Waluigi was in a very distant second place when it came to chair "theories," and most of those were tongue in cheek jokes. Anybody that was there at the time can tell you that it was Skull Kid who took the lion's share of the Chair Theory discourse among those who actually believed it.

But Skull Kid doesn't fit your agenda, I suppose.

 

[Perkilator]

Dude, you really need to let the Waluigi hate go, especially now that you're using it for the purposes of revisionism.

Waluigi was in a very distant second place when it came to chair "theories," and most of those were tongue in cheek jokes. Anybody that was there at the time can tell you that it was Skull Kid who took the lion's share of the Chair Theory discourse among those who actually believed it.

But Skull Kid doesn't fit your agenda, I suppose.

Wha…? I was only using Waluigi as an example.

 

[dream1ng]

I still can't believe I believed in the Grinch leak at the time. Box theory was always right, if a wee bit disappointing.

A lot of people believed the Grinch leak, even if only momentarily. Because the alternative was that a lunatic orchestrated a labyrinthian backstory that involved months-spanning coordination between like three different sites, roped in innocent, unrelated people, and entailed a full recreation of the mural.

Sadly, we got the lunatic.

 

[Perkilator]

I was thinking about the World Tour mode from Street Fighter 6, and it got me thinking; what if World of Light had a similar mode where you run around freely on the overworld, and the sub-areas were more like a map?

 

[Golden Icarus]

Stories like this show the beauty of Smash (and crossovers in general). I wish more people would look at unfamiliar franchises this way and not "I'm not familiar with this so I don't like it."

It's like, maybe the best part of Smash. Personally I wouldn't have touched Kid Icarus, Mother, Metal Gear, Xenoblade, Persona, Kingdom Hearts, etc. if it weren't for Smash. And some of those are among my favorite franchises nowadays. What's even more beautiful are games like Rhythm Heaven, Mario RPG, Sin and Punishment, Chrono Trigger, Puyo Puyo, etc. that I only ever played thanks to rumors and speculation.

If you're spending time hanging out on Smash speculation forums, then I would hope that you'd have this mindset towards the series. It's such a fun speculation scene because literally everything is on the table. It's a joy to hear people get excited over things that I have little to no familiarity with, as then I have the opportunity to explore that franchise and join in on the hype!

 

[Quillion]

I was thinking about the World Tour mode from Street Fighter 6, and it got me thinking; what if World of Light had a similar mode where you run around freely on the overworld, and the sub-areas were more like a map?

As long as we get an actual world of mashed up Nintendo settings rather than a totally netural "world of trophies" like SSE and WoL, that would be ballin'.

Also, I stand by my opinion that the interim between Ultimate and the next Smash will be an ideal time to have another ballot.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Also, I stand by my opinion that the interim between Ultimate and the next Smash will be an ideal time to have another ballot.

I disagree for two reasons. The simplest first reason is the best time to have the ballot is upon a super early announcement for the next game to build up a bit more hype.

The other reason I disagree is just that I could easily see there being no real desire to return to a ballot system again. The ballot was clearly very useful for making Smash Ultimate: EiH, K Rool, Ridley, Belmonts, Chrom, Dark Samus, Sora, and Banjo at least are pretty concretely from the ballot. It would also not surprise me if Steve and Hero had strong ballot showings too. They also did add plenty of nods to fan favorites either as Assist Trophies or Spirits or Mii Costumes. That being said, I do think there will always be some skepticism towards any ballot going forward. Bayonetta, while probably doing well, we can definitively say did not "win" the ballot. She was the most "realizable" when they started work on her in April of 2015. I think that any second ballot after the switcheroo that happened there might be met with a lot of toxicity at the end of the day.

I would love to be wrong. I would love a second ballot. Some of my most wanteds like Crash for example would be a huge benefactor to a Ballot 2.0 existing. I just doubt that we will ever see a second ballot.

 

[Quillion]

The other reason I disagree is just that I could easily see there being no real desire to return to a ballot system again. The ballot was clearly very useful for making Smash Ultimate: EiH, K Rool, Ridley, Belmonts, Chrom, Dark Samus, Sora, and Banjo at least are pretty concretely from the ballot. It would also not surprise me if Steve and Hero had strong ballot showings too. They also did add plenty of nods to fan favorites either as Assist Trophies or Spirits or Mii Costumes. That being said, I do think there will always be some skepticism towards any ballot going forward. Bayonetta, while probably doing well, we can definitively say did not "win" the ballot. She was the most "realizable" when they started work on her in April of 2015. I think that any second ballot after the switcheroo that happened there might be met with a lot of toxicity at the end of the day.

That's the thing though; the problem with the ballot was that it clearly didn't give them enough lead time to do the necessary work. All the licensing complications; modeling, animation, and coding work; the fact that DLC characters need to be made flashy and impressive so that it can sell unlike base game characters; constantly shifting results in the ballot itself; it's just not enough time.

That's why the interim between Smash installments is a good time for a ballot. They have time to plan once it's over and the next Smash is formally announced. Besides, some form of input to request a character for Smash is hype enough on its own.

 

[Sucumbio]

I'd love a second ballot... It can be any time really I just want to vote for Rygar!

 

[dream1ng]

The ideal time to have a ballot, I suppose, is when they know they're going to begin another Smash game, but either pre-production hasn't begun, or it's in such early stages that the roster hasn't really taken shape yet. Which, given how Smash works, is very very very early development. Like pre-pre-production.

So in theory, before development has begun is the best time for the ballot, but with the intention to begin pre-production around when the ballot is to conclude. Doing it later may be better for engagement, but it would conflict with the roster already being assembled.

Unless it was primarily for DLC. Then it could work, but you'd have to be cognizant that any deconfirmed characters would perform worse than were they still seen to be eligible. Like how during the first ballot, a character like Waluigi would've been hindered by already being a known AT.

I think a second ballot would work. The landscape looks different enough now that it would yield pretty contrasting results, bar a few longstanding requests. They just need to be more transparent about its true intentions not tout a pre-selected character as the winner. Or at least choose a less divisive one.

Though obviously they seem aware enough at this point about who has demand that another certainly isn't a necessity.

 

[Stratos]

I have many characters to vote for, but I know that not all of them will enter, but I hope for Waluigi at least.

 

[dream1ng]

Ballot or no ballot, I would be shocked if Waluigi isn't playable next time. He's by far the most popular first-party, very recognizable, and he's a rarity in that he's one of the few remaining first-parties to be popular among the supercasual, average gamer, and hardcore Smash fan alike.

 

[Wonder Smash]

Stories like this show the beauty of Smash (and crossovers in general). I wish more people would look at unfamiliar franchises this way and not "I'm not familiar with this so I don't like it."

Yeah, it's why I look into games that even if I'm not interested enough to play them, I still want to at least familiarize myself with them. Like games such as Shin Megami Tensei or Ys. RPGs have never really been my thing but it is fun to study up on these very significant series and seeing what they could bring to Smash. Sometimes, speculations and discussions just does that. In fact, that's how became a Doom fan; I went from not caring about him being in Smash because his games didn't resemble anything Nintendo makes, to beating Doom 1 and 2 and becoming a full-fledged supporter of him before he was even revealed as a Mii costume in Ultimate.

 

[Perkilator]

Ballot or no ballot, I would be shocked if Waluigi isn't playable next time. He's by far the most popular first-party, very recognizable, and he's a rarity in that he's one of the few remaining first-parties to be popular among the supercasual, average gamer, and hardcore Smash fan alike.

Same with Bandana Waddle Dee, or at least similarly. I would've at least gladly taken either over Piranha Plant.

 

[dream1ng]

Same with Bandana Waddle Dee, or at least similarly. I would've at least gladly taken either over Piranha Plant.

There are similarities, but the level of recognizability between a supporting Mario character and a supporting Kirby character is massive. The difference in install base between the two is profound. Waluigi is going to resonate much further than BWD.

 

[Lenidem]

There are similarities, but the level of recognizability between a supporting Mario character and a supporting Kirby character is massive. The difference in install base between the two is profound. Waluigi is going to resonate much further than BWD.

Maybe not in Japan.

 

[HyperSomari64]

Maybe not in Japan.

Then explain this Ranking made in Famtisu for Smash 3DS/Wii U where Waluigi is No. 14.

https://uvejuegos.com/img/noticias/29772/Av5YocRCQAAzxRm.jpg

 

[dream1ng]

Maybe not in Japan.

Kirby is bigger there than in the west, but Mario is still Mario in Japan. He has a theme park and gets like three games a year, which tend to do two, three, four times what Kirby does. I'm still giving it to Waluigi overall, but I would agree BWD would do better there than here in all three demographics.

 

[Quillion]

The ideal time to have a ballot, I suppose, is when they know they're going to begin another Smash game, but either pre-production hasn't begun, or it's in such early stages that the roster hasn't really taken shape yet. Which, given how Smash works, is very very very early development. Like pre-pre-production.

So in theory, before development has begun is the best time for the ballot, but with the intention to begin pre-production around when the ballot is to conclude. Doing it later may be better for engagement, but it would conflict with the roster already being assembled.

Unless it was primarily for DLC. Then it could work, but you'd have to be cognizant that any deconfirmed characters would perform worse than were they still seen to be eligible. Like how during the first ballot, a character like Waluigi would've been hindered by already being a known AT.

I think a second ballot would work. The landscape looks different enough now that it would yield pretty contrasting results, bar a few longstanding requests. They just need to be more transparent about its true intentions not tout a pre-selected character as the winner. Or at least choose a less divisive one.

Though obviously they seem aware enough at this point about who has demand that another certainly isn't a necessity.

They could do a base game ballot during the interim between Smash games and a DLC ballot some months before the game releases.

There are similarities, but the level of recognizability between a supporting Mario character and a supporting Kirby character is massive. The difference in install base between the two is profound. Waluigi is going to resonate much further than BWD.

I think Waluigi would be a great way to introduce same-game AT promotion if anything. He's still on a lower level than the main series Mario characters, but introducing same-game promotion would be a great luxury for him.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I'd take a lot over PP. Unfortunately, the only options were "generic character" or nothing anyway. Shy Guy would be my most preferred choice(whether under the Mario or Yoshi label. It also depends if it's closer to the Paper Mario variation or the general species). Beyond that, there's actually no other enemies that really stick out to me that isn't a third party like Slime(and he's both a heroic character and mascot, so stands out a bit more than what the purpose behind PP is, so).

 

[dream1ng]

They could do a base game ballot during the interim between Smash games and a DLC ballot some months before the game releases.

I think the second would be superfluous if you just did one like a year or two before.

I think Waluigi would be a great way to introduce same-game AT promotion if anything. He's still on a lower level than the main series Mario characters, but introducing same-game promotion would be a great luxury for him.

For Ultimate, sure. But next game, I doubt he isn't made playable in the initial batch. Doesn't really make sense to wait, he's basically the best first-party choice given his appeal and reach.

A situation like Isaac getting AT'd again, and then GS gets revived during the tenure of the next game, and then he becomes promoted via DLC would make sense. Otherwise they'd probably act on their intention to make these characters playable at the first opportunity, which is base. Look at Isabelle.

I'd take a lot over PP. Unfortunately, the only options were "generic character" or nothing anyway. Shy Guy would be my most preferred choice(whether under the Mario or Yoshi label. It also depends if it's closer to the Paper Mario variation or the general species). Beyond that, there's actually no other enemies that really stick out to me that isn't a third party like Slime(and he's both a heroic character and mascot, so stands out a bit more than what the purpose behind PP is, so).

Well if you go a step back and just look at "surprise character", there are a lot of options.