Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

One thing regarding Rayman (and Shovel Knight) is that Nintendo published a game from the franchise in Japan, hence why it likely appeared in Smash 4 and Ultimate base as collectables.

I just wish both got Mii costumes. Sure, Rayman's would be weird with invisible limbs, but eh. It's not like it would make a difference since it's still a Mii fighting. Also, I would like some Shovel Knight music too~

 

[Perkilator]

Delzethin made a Remake It video for DK

 

[MrMcNuts]

One thing regarding Rayman (and Shovel Knight) is that Nintendo published a game from the franchise in Japan, hence why it likely appeared in Smash 4 and Ultimate base as collectables.

For smash 4 I agree but I feel the spirit in ultimate was like Geno and others who did well on the ballot but not banjo Krool well as a constellation prize. Mainly cause by ultimate it had been 5 years since Rayman legends had been published by then with Ubisoft publishing the switch port in Japan as well, just a guess though.

Honestly, it sucks, but Rayman(not that he's my personal choice) is kind of in the lower of the three core choices of franchises due to having the weakest showing in Japan.

Definitely wouldn't say he's the weakest, like ya said fan demand can play a big part especially if all 3 don't do exceptional in Japan. Worst case scenario I think they're all equal footing when you count up their merits

 

[Wonder Smash]

One thing regarding Rayman (and Shovel Knight) is that Nintendo published a game from the franchise in Japan, hence why it likely appeared in Smash 4 and Ultimate base as collectables.

Maybe in the case for Rayman in Smash 4.

In the case of Ultimate, there were some third-party series that Nintendo had no prior involvement in before that point.

 

[dream1ng]

Honestly, it sucks, but Rayman(not that he's my personal choice) is kind of in the lower of the three core choices of franchises due to having the weakest showing in Japan.

But hey, that could be entirely different, as things like fan demand do matter too. Albeit, part of what helped BK was Microsoft getting in good with Nintendo via Minecraft alone, but Nintendo and Ubisoft were already pals for a long time. So it's at most a matter of how the ballot went. Rayman is the only straight franchise alone among Ubisoft's to get an NPC appearance in base too, which while could be argued as "Nintendo published some games in Japan", it does mean that it's at least considered important. Regular Rabbids didn't, but the crossover did. And AC didn't show up till DLC, same with Rabbids. Despite one having a weaker Japanese showing, it's pretty clear they're all held in high regard anyway, and that's great for all fans as they feel like a pretty good reasonable chance. Even if Rayman isn't playable, as long as Ubisoft is game, I expect some kind of NPC appearance or costume in some way. Same with the rest by now, albeit, some would be DLC too. But Spirits don't have to be, as shown. If you think about it, that's also kind of what Rayman had that regular Rabbids and AC didn't; he was able to be put in base game cause he wasn't a costume. Next game could change this up quite a bit.

Well AC is by far the most successful of the series, including in Japan, where, conservatively, they perform about ten times better than Rayman games. Yes Rayman showed up first in Smash... but... that isn't inherently a correlation to playable order. Virtua Fighter predates Bayonetta and Persona. Geno predates all Square characters other than Cloud.

They'd get in differently. Rayman pretty much has to rely on demand, and that demand has to be sufficient to outweigh being so much not a thing in Japan. That's no short order considering other requested characters may not have that impediment, or may just be bigger in general. AC can get in just being itself, because it's huge. Though it has no Smash-specific demand. I guess Rabbids are somewhere in the middle.

I'm, personally, not particularly invested in any of the outcomes. I have more experience with AC, but I'd prefer Rayman, because I think he fits better. But I'm not hung up either way. If he gets in, cool. If not, oh well. He's not really on my list. But I'd take either over Rabbids because they annoy me. Also getting a single "Rabbid" as a fighter would be kind of weird imo, I'd rather have a specific character.

 

[MrMcNuts]

Well AC is by far the most successful of the series, including in Japan, where, conservatively, they perform about ten times better than Rayman games. Yes Rayman showed up first in Smash... but... that isn't inherently a correlation to playable order. Virtua Fighter predates Bayonetta and Persona. Geno predates all Square characters other than Cloud.

They'd get in differently. Rayman pretty much has to rely on demand, and that demand has to be sufficient to outweigh being so much not a thing in Japan. That's no short order considering other requested characters may not have that impediment, or may just be bigger in general. AC can get in just being itself, because it's huge. Though it has no Smash-specific demand. I guess Rabbids are somewhere in the middle.

I'm, personally, not particularly invested in any of the outcomes. I have more experience with AC, but I'd prefer Rayman, because I think he fits better. But I'm not hung up either way. If he gets in, cool. If not, oh well. He's not really on my list. But I'd take either over Rabbids because they annoy me. Also getting a single "Rabbid" as a fighter would be kind of weird imo, I'd rather have a specific character.

Had me at "prefer Rayman" boss

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

For me, Rabbids is my top choice. I love the guys, and there's also very specific Rabbid characters... without even having to have a unique design either. There's multiple particular ones who just have a very specific personality. They're not actually very generic anyway. Some of the race can be, but many are defined more by their traits than some added clothing or whatever. That's what makes them great. They're a species and stands out on their own merits. I think that's part of the issues with the Minions, who are near identical in like... everything. The most they have is barely different designs sometimes, but their personalities are near interchangeable, something that doesn't apply to the Rabbids by default. One was just defined better, of course.

Though that's also why they work well as costumes, due to having unique weapons. I do wonder what a good gun option would be, though, outside of referencing Mario & Rabbids.

 

[CannonStreak]

Well AC is by far the most successful of the series, including in Japan, where, conservatively, they perform about ten times better than Rayman games. Yes Rayman showed up first in Smash... but... that isn't inherently a correlation to playable order. Virtua Fighter predates Bayonetta and Persona. Geno predates all Square characters other than Cloud.

They'd get in differently. Rayman pretty much has to rely on demand, and that demand has to be sufficient to outweigh being so much not a thing in Japan. That's no short order considering other requested characters may not have that impediment, or may just be bigger in general. AC can get in just being itself, because it's huge. Though it has no Smash-specific demand. I guess Rabbids are somewhere in the middle.

I'm, personally, not particularly invested in any of the outcomes. I have more experience with AC, but I'd prefer Rayman, because I think he fits better. But I'm not hung up either way. If he gets in, cool. If not, oh well. He's not really on my list. But I'd take either over Rabbids because they annoy me. Also getting a single "Rabbid" as a fighter would be kind of weird imo, I'd rather have a specific character.

I know this is kinda unrelated, but you did mention Geno, and I would like to take the opportunity to say this.

Basically, though I was part of the hype train back in Ultimate's DLC days, I did not expect Geno as much as many have in that one topic. In fact, I knew Geno had a chance of not getting in as a DLC character in Ultimate. Sad thing is, I tried to tell everyone there to lower their expectations, but they would not listen. I was not there for the chaos when Sephiroth was revealed and the Mii Costume for Geno was revealed before that thread was locked. Such a shame. Talk about too much overconfidence.

Anyway, I still think Rayman has a shot. You do make some good points, and I do think a Rabbid or an Assassin's Creed character could happen before Rayman. Still, Rayman is a prominent character in gaming. Maybe not the most prominent one, but still...

Plus, anything is possibl-SHOT (Sorry, but I had to. Ignore this part if you wish)

 

[dream1ng]

Had me at "prefer Rayman" boss

I know this is kinda unrelated, but you did mention Geno, and I would like to take the opportunity to say this.

Basically, though I was part of the hype train back in Ultimate's DLC days, I did not expect Geno as much as many have in that one topic. In fact, I knew Geno had a chance of not getting in as a DLC character in Ultimate. Sad thing is, I tried to tell everyone there to lower their expectations, but they would not listen. I was not there for the chaos when Sephiroth was revealed and the Mii Costume for Geno was revealed before that thread was locked. Such a shame. Talk about too much overconfidence.

Yes, they did not hype responsibly. I think the most to hope for now is fanbases learn from it to exercise more caution, but desire + mob is a powerful thing.

Anyway, I still think Rayman has a shot. You do make some good points, and I do think a Rabbid or an Assassin's Creed character could happen before Rayman. Still, Rayman is a prominent character in gaming. Maybe not the most prominent one, but still...

Plus, anything is possibl-SHOT (Sorry, but I had to. Ignore this part if you wish)

He's definitely possible, just got to remember that he's the western equivalent of a character requested in Japan that we go "oh right, them".

 

[CannonStreak]

Yes, they did not hype responsibly. I think the most to hope for now is fanbases learn from it to exercise more caution, but desire + mob is a powerful thing.


He's definitely possible, just got to remember that he's the western equivalent of a character requested in Japan that we go "oh right, them".

You too with the possible thing?

So, western equivalent of a character requested in Japan, huh? If I read this right, I would like to ask; who could that be?

 

[dream1ng]

You too with the possible thing?

So, western equivalent of a character requested in Japan, huh? If I read this right, I would like to ask; who could that be?

No, I mean he's the western version of a character popular in Japan but the west kind of forgets about because the series is so low-key here. Maybe like Sakura or Goemon, or, perhaps generously, Arle.

 

[MrMcNuts]

Hey I'm just saying I recognize good taste

 

[CannonStreak]

No, I mean he's the western version of a character popular in Japan but the west kind of forgets about because the series is so low-key here. Maybe like Sakura or Goemon, or, perhaps generously, Arle.

I see. That is rather interesting.

P.S.: I am beginning to see a lot more as to why the anything is possible thing isn't a valid argument now.

 

[dream1ng]

Hey I'm just saying I recognize good taste

Well, don't worry. If Rayman gets in, you'll get a semi-emphatic "cool" from me. I'll probably even wait 30 or 40 minutes before I start talking about who I think would be next.

P.S.: I am beginning to see a lot more as to why the anything is possible thing isn't a valid argument now.

Good. It's the hail-mary of arguments.

 

[CannonStreak]

Well, don't worry. If Rayman gets in, you'll get a semi-emphatic "cool" from me. I'll probably even wait 30 or 40 minutes before I start talking about who I think would be next.


Good. It's the hail-mary of arguments.

Yeah yeah, sure. Isn't it awfully vague in some way too? And I do mean "awfully".

 

[MrMcNuts]

Well, don't worry. If Rayman gets in, you'll get a semi-emphatic "cool" from me. I'll probably even wait 30 or 40 minutes before I start talking about who I think would be next.

Will be a beautiful 30 or 40 minutes

 

[dream1ng]

Yeah yeah, sure. Isn't it awfully vague in some way too? And I do mean "awfully".

Insofar as stressing how the outcomes are theoretically innumerable does the opposite of advocating for the realization of a specific one, yes.

 

[CannonStreak]

Insofar as stressing how the outcomes are theoretically innumerable does the opposite of advocating for the realization of a specific one, yes.

Not to mention, I think it is "out there", meaning it applies to every other character to the point that it does nothing good for the character you argue for, is that right?

From what I last saw though, while I did not know how bad it was until you did bring it up before. I think there is one other person who comes on this thread that, unlike me, does not understand how bad that argument is. Won't say who, though.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Not to mention, I think it is "out there", meaning it applies to every other character to the point that it does nothing good for the character you argue for, is that right?

From what I last saw though, while I did not know how bad it was until you did bring it up before. I think there is one other person who comes on this thread that, unlike me, does not understand how bad that argument is. Won't say who, though.

Generally, "won't say who" means it's obvious who it is, so it's better to either call them out directly(which if the argument is over with, is also not worthwhile) or to never saw it.

Anyway, that said, yeah, the whole "equal merit" doesn't work as an argument cause that's not how development goes. Some characters don't get in on merit in itself, but special situations(which, notably, includes the entire Zelda cast except for Link. Zelda and Sheik were both part of the same gimmick, Ganondorf and Young Link were clones, and Toon Link required Young Link's data to be created, which puts him in a different position from the regular clone stuff. As he wasn't actually based upon regular Link in Brawl). So it's pretty difficult to apply that to everyone when we know context is important. I could go on, but you can just look at the vast differences in third parties and how they don't really have similar situations in every case. I don't feel like typing it out for the 40th time. XD

 

[CannonStreak]

Generally, "won't say who" means it's obvious who it is, so it's better to either call them out directly(which if the argument is over with, is also not worthwhile) or to never saw it.

Anyway, that said, yeah, the whole "equal merit" doesn't work as an argument cause that's not how development goes. Some characters don't get in on merit in itself, but special situations(which, notably, includes the entire Zelda cast except for Link. Zelda and Sheik were both part of the same gimmick, Ganondorf and Young Link were clones, and Toon Link required Young Link's data to be created, which puts him in a different position from the regular clone stuff. As he wasn't actually based upon regular Link in Brawl). So it's pretty difficult to apply that to everyone when we know context is important. I could go on, but you can just look at the vast differences in third parties and how they don't really have similar situations in every case. I don't feel like typing it out for the 40th time. XD

Sorry, didn't mean that.

But yeah, I knew about the equal merit being bad by itself before, I just wish I was more aware it being a part of the "anything is possible" thing when I first brought it up.

 

[Chuderz]

I like Sukapon. I wish we got Sukapon instead of Plant. I don't really care for Rayman and wish that dumb fake leak never happened. That guy really forced Rayman on the wider Smash community with his shenanigans. Disclaimer I don't hate Rayman's fans nor do I think they aren't legitimate Smash fans. I just feel the foundation of his support is largely in part derived from that event which was likely derived from his trophy which again was likely derived from Nintendo simply publishing a Rayman game in Japan.

It feels all so artificial and circumstantial to me.

 

[CannonStreak]

I like Sukapon. I wish we got Sukapon instead of Plant. I don't really care for Rayman and wish that dumb fake leak never happened. That guy really forced Rayman on the wider Smash community with his shenanigans. Disclaimer I don't hate Rayman's fans nor do I think they aren't legitimate Smash fans. I just feel the foundation of his support is largely in part derived from that event which was likely derived from his trophy which again was likely derived from Nintendo simply publishing a Rayman game in Japan.

It feels all so artificial and circumstantial to me.

I understand what you mean. I actually want Sukapon too in a Smash game as a playable. I don't care if Rayman would be playable aside him, he just looks cool to me, and I would try to main him.

 

[MrMcNuts]

I like Sukapon. I wish we got Sukapon instead of Plant. I don't really care for Rayman and wish that dumb fake leak never happened. That guy really forced Rayman on the wider Smash community with his shenanigans. Disclaimer I don't hate Rayman's fans nor do I think they aren't legitimate Smash fans. I just feel the foundation of his support is largely in part derived from that event which was likely derived from his trophy which again was likely derived from Nintendo simply publishing a Rayman game in Japan.

It feels all so artificial and circumstantial to me.

I mean if it was really only cause of the fake leak he's support would have died off by now. I think we just like him lol

 

[dream1ng]

I like Sukapon. I wish we got Sukapon instead of Plant. I don't really care for Rayman and wish that dumb fake leak never happened. That guy really forced Rayman on the wider Smash community with his shenanigans. Disclaimer I don't hate Rayman's fans nor do I think they aren't legitimate Smash fans. I just feel the foundation of his support is largely in part derived from that event which was likely derived from his trophy which again was likely derived from Nintendo simply publishing a Rayman game in Japan.

It feels all so artificial and circumstantial to me.

Well, like you briefly touched on, it wasn't the leak that started the popularity, it was the trophy. The leak snowballed it, but what originally kicked things off was just the picture of the day of his trophy. Which also effectively deconfirmed him for base. Most characters don't get popular by being deconfirmed. Nor does simply having a trophy make you popular. CommanderVideo got a trophy, no one cared.

If an event like that leads to popularity, it means the character has innate popularity. The reason for the silence beforehand was because the fanbase wasn't at the stage where the west was seen as a realistic participant. I don't think any western characters had demand prior to that trophy (Banjo saga aside).

But Rayman is the eponymous lead of a cartoon-y series with Nintendo association and history, his popularity would've happened anyway. Maybe it wouldn't have peaked so high, but it's not like he got included, so its efficacy is still limited anyway.

And I also wish we got Sukapon instead of Plant, but keep in mind that Sukapon is going to be boxed out so long as they exclude regional exclusive characters.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Rayman is a fairly charming platforming mascot that's had a series of games on Nintendo consoles since the N64 era.

It would be more surprising if he didn't have Smash support from Western fans.

 

[HyperSomari64]

SSB Brawl had some additional work from Game Arts, Paon and MonolithSoft.
Only one of the three could have their characters in later Smashes.

• Game Arts is known for it's Grandia series. So it's time this series get some representation.
• Paon DP has a handful of Data East franchises that aren't owned by Marvelous AQL (Ex: Karnov, WindJammers, Atomic Chelnov). So there you have that

 

[Wonder Smash]

SSB Brawl had some additional work from Game Arts, Paon and MonolithSoft.
Only one of the three could have their characters in later Smashes.

• Game Arts is known for it's Grandia series. So it's time this series get some representation.
• Paon DP has a handful of Data East franchises that aren't owned by Marvelous AQL (Ex: Karnov, WindJammers, Atomic Chelnov). So there you have that

If I had to pick one, it would be Glory of Heracles from Paon DP.

I know it's co-owned by Nintendo but still...

 

[Opossum]

Man, I wish featuring in a prominent fake leak guaranteed a following the size of Rayman's support post-Artsy Omni.

Signed, a Mach Rider fan.

 

[Dinoman96]

Man, I wish featuring in a prominent fake leak guaranteed a following the size of Rayman's support post-Artsy Omni.

Signed, a Mach Rider fan.

Funny you mention that, it's basically been now four whole years since the Grinch Leak began making waves.

 

[Dukefire]

Leaks still suck when it comes to Smash Bros......man the burns of salt back then

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

You know its funny, the Grinch Leak was like the existential opposite of the Gigaleak. The former was a fake that led to a lot of turmoil, infighting, disappointed fans, gleeful trolls, and a general dumpster fire online in the midst of a very busy time for Nintendo. The latter was incredibly interesting real revealation that brought fans together in discovering new things about old classics during a period where nothing was happening due to the pandemic.

The Grinch is fake and L is real (2401).

 

[TCT~Phantom]

So, SCCC 2 update time.

Poll should continue for a bit longer. We well surpassed the replies for part 1, but the issue is that the next poll will have pokemon on it. Right now, I do have 5-6 slots set aside for Gen 9 mons but until we get our full dex I do not want the next poll to go live. Poll for the second part should end in early november. Article will go live in late november, as will the next poll.

 

[dream1ng]

Man, I wish featuring in a prominent fake leak guaranteed a following the size of Rayman's support post-Artsy Omni.

Signed, a Mach Rider fan.

Well everyone knows the Grinch leak made Banjo, Geno and Isaac popular. Pretty sure no one cared about them beforehand.

 

[StrangeKitten]

Well everyone knows the Grinch leak made Banjo, Geno and Isaac popular. Pretty sure no one cared about them beforehand.

I'm assuming this is sarcasm?

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I'm assuming this is sarcasm?

Yes. That was sarcasm.

 

[Quillion]

I genuinely think if Gex had an at least somewhat popular revival like Rayman had with Origins and Legends, the former would get a following for Smash independent of any leak or high-effort fake.

 

[Ivander]

I genuinely think if Gex had an at least somewhat popular revival like Rayman had with Origins and Legends, the former would get a following for Smash independent of any leak or high-effort fake.

I think if any old character got a positively acclaimed game that got alot of attention and sold very successfully, they would get a noticeable following for Smash regardless of leaks or fakes. All you really need are the right people for making the game and a good marketing campaign....

Much easier said than done.

 

[Perkilator]

I think if any old character got a positively acclaimed game that got alot of attention and sold very successfully, they would get a noticeable following for Smash regardless of leaks or fakes. All you really need are the right people for making the game and a good marketing campaign....

Much easier said than done.

Cries is NEO TWEWY, which didn't even get a Spirit Event

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Rayman's been a moderately popular request for a long time.

He's just been more lowkey due to Rayman being past his heyday and generally being seen as not very likely.

The leak just made the people who liked him more visible. It's the same as Skull Kid and the chairs. Skull Kid was always popular, people just didn't have a reason to believe until the chairs.

 

[osby]

It's the same as Skull Kid and the chairs. Skull Kid was always popular, people just didn't have a reason to believe until the chairs.

The chairs were weird because it was such a Rorschach test that could "hint" to any character. I'm sure there were at least several other characters that could claim ownership of the exact color palette and Skull Kid fans were just the fastest and the loudest, which shows that yeah, he had a big fan group. They just needed an excuse to really double down on their support.