Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Guynamednelson]

As someone who's very invested in Mewtwo, Pokemon Trainer and Charizard, I am confused as to what this is supposed to mean.

You don't remember the overreaction to Mewtwo not being playable in Brawl and initially 4?

 

[ForsakenM]

Like, I get it.


There's still a handful of older 1st party characters people want.

But

View attachment 336850

I could totally see characters like Waluigi, Octolings, Ring Fit Trainee in Smash 6. But Isaac? Krystal? Maybe even B.Dee? Ehhhhhh.

I feel like the GIF itself is a good enough response, but I also want to go more in-depth.

I would say that the Octoling and Ring Fit actually have lesser chances of getting into a new Smash game than all the other names you just mentioned, and the reasons are that Octolings and Ring Fit never got much more push than for echoes and the push behind these other names is massive and came out at a time that was too late for the game but just the right time for the next one. That and we have other 1st Party IP new characters that could be included as well as whatever comes out between now and the next Smash title. I also feel that a new title would focus more on new and unique characters than Echoes because of Ultimate being rather lackluster upon initial delivery in the character department.

Now, if I understand correctly, you think that the support for characters like Isaac, Krystal, BWD and the like just isn't where it needs to be and thus that ruins their chances, right?

Well first off, we ALL know you can't say this about Waluigi, so let's just move away from The Wah. One thing you haven't mentioned is that Isaac had a rather large movement and the reaction to his AT returning was loud enough that Nintendo heads went on record essentially saying 'Wow, we had no clue!' While this isn't as big as Sakurai talking about thinking The Wah was nothing but a meme or 'actual news outlets' talking about the purple fake Italian, this is still Nintendo acknowledging the feedback...and this was before Operation Sunfall. Isaac also has relatively big personalities on the web pushing him, so I think Golden Sun is better off than you are giving it credit for.

So something I'd like to bring up for BWD's case is not just how popular he is outside of the West, but also similarities in what Sakurai has told us about the initial Smash Ballot and results we saw with mock polls during that time and some time after. I will reference these for other characters here as well.

Spoiler: Images of Mock Smash Ballots

These are just a few of many, some of which took place during the Smash Ballot and some after, but there seems to be something interesting here that I want to point out.

Remember when people clamored to say we couldn't trust the accuracies of these polls? Well, Sakurai came out and has essentially said that Sora and B&K were the top two requests on the Ballot, which I assume is after removing all the meme picks and all the requests for veterans.

Look at just these couple of examples that show both of these characters incredibly requested (which is weird to not see Sora in earlier polls but here we are). Hell, both of these two swap around these top placements while still remaining incredibly high.

What I'm trying to say is that I think our mock polls and the data from those show more of a clear picture of the actual ballot than people realize, they are just all smaller in scope. I mean, people around the globe voted and voted more than once in the Smash Ballot, and who campaigns were started by fan bases. Think of each poll we took as a small piece of the Smash Ballot, just a peek into what was there.

For this reason, look at the placement of the blue-topped Goomba: the little guy has major pull across the globe both during 2015 and all the way into 2020 and likely even still. I mean, the trooper is #9 in the Mega Smash Poll, still placing in the top ten. I've seen bits and pieces of his support among various social media sites and they are definitely there in numbers.

Outside of this, he still has the push of Kirby being lower in reps much like DK, Zelda, Star Fox and Metroid that also gives him an increased chance of inclusion.

I'm actually short on time unfortunately, so I'll have to wrap up by saying Skull Kid, Dixie Kong and Krystal also have these advantages but to a lesser degree, with Krystal having the least of them. Basically, support for them is there for sure, but some more than others. Yet, they all have the 'not very many reps for how big they are' advantage, and Krystal and Dixie Kong have the advantage of both originally planned to be playable and Skull Kid benefits from being seemingly the #1 pick when Zelda characters come up as well as The Moon AT giving way to clear him from AT status without losing any MM ATs.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

You don't remember the overreaction to Mewtwo not being playable in Brawl and initially 4?

Yeah but... do you want overreactions?

 

[skylanders fan]

Tbh I’m a bit biased but the three biggest cuts that shouldn’t have happened in smash are

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I doubt that. They've been spoiled by the 3rd party:1st party ratio in both FPs enough that I'm afraid Smash 6's base game newcomers are going to make "wtf no mewtwo?" look like "no mewtwo, oh well, at least there's charizard"

Listen, I am going to be real with you.

Stop.

Just Stop.

You are legit making yourself and your argument look bad. Strawmanning and insulting everyone is not going to help you. You have people that do genuinely support predominatly first parties calling you out on this. Instead of taking their advice, you just push them away, acting like everyone somehow is an idiot except you.

If you do want more first party reps in smash, cool. No one is stopping you. You can make the case for Isaac, Bandana Dee, or whoever you please if you formulate a strong case. I ran RTC, I saw people make cases for picks off the beaten road. Sometimes they got in like Terry or Sephiroth. Sometimes they did not, but a support base grew. Fanbases like Reimu, Adol, Arle, Officer Howard, and the RH fans all saw solid growth over the course of Smash Ultimate in their want averages and RTC at least helped introduce people to the series. Many of them were due to people making a strong case, first or third party. They made a strong case to help make new people interested in their dream picks.

What you are doing ain't that chief. You are acting like a jerk, driving people away. You are doing this knowingly. At this point, just stop and take a break dude. Make a case for your most wanted. Be passionate. Bring up cool things about them. Don't keep digging yourself into a hole.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Yeah but... do you want overreactions?

No, but I'm afraid there's going to be a lot of people whining if the first-party:third-party newcomer ratio in Smash 6's base game is closer to Brawl's...or base 4's...or base Ultimate's...basically any ratio that isn't like what we've seen from Smash's DLC cycles.

 

[Geno Boost]

I could totally see characters like Waluigi, Octolings, Ring Fit Trainee in Smash 6. But Isaac? Krystal? Maybe even B.Dee? Ehhhhhh.

I hate to admit it but honestly i feel smash is heading that way despite me wanting Isaac, Ninten, Harry (Teleroboxer), Grovyle, Sukapon, Black Shadow, Daroach, Skull Kid, Captain Syrup I would feel very lucky to have any of them and the truth is they are not promotional characters which Nintendo aren’t a fan of when it comes to smash characters picks unless if very very highly demanded we are probably more likely to get 3 more fire emblem characters before any of them

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Let's justify change the subject.

Assuming ARMS would get a second character, and assuming Min Min stays, who would the second character be?

My gut tells me it would be Twintelle but I'm not sure.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Let's justify change the subject.

Assuming ARMS would get a second character, and assuming Min Min stays, who would the second character be?

My gut tells me it would be Twintelle but I'm not sure.

Coyle or Brass

 

[Guynamednelson]

Let's justify change the subject.

Assuming ARMS would get a second character, and assuming Min Min stays, who would the second character be?

My gut tells me it would be Twintelle but I'm not sure.

Ninjara, if only because Sakurai also considered him and because Japanese popularity.

 

[Dinoman96]

Really baring the surprise characters, the best thing I think most older Nintendo characters can hope for is for them them or their series seeing some sort of revitalization before the next Smash comes along.

Think of how Punch-Out!! Wii and Kid Icarus Uprising paved the way for Little Mac and Palutena being in Smash 4. So in say Isaac's case, I think his best chance is for Golden Sun to be successfully revived with a new game.

 

[Shroob]

I feel like the GIF itself is a good enough response, but I also want to go more in-depth.

I would say that the Octoling and Ring Fit actually have lesser chances of getting into a new Smash game than all the other names you just mentioned, and the reasons are that Octolings and Ring Fit never got much more push than for echoes and the push behind these other names is massive and came out at a time that was too late for the game but just the right time for the next one. That and we have other 1st Party IP new characters that could be included as well as whatever comes out between now and the next Smash title. I also feel that a new title would focus more on new and unique characters than Echoes because of Ultimate being rather lackluster upon initial delivery in the character department.

Now, if I understand correctly, you think that the support for characters like Isaac, Krystal, BWD and the like just isn't where it needs to be and thus that ruins their chances, right?

Well first off, we ALL know you can't say this about Waluigi, so let's just move away from The Wah. One thing you haven't mentioned is that Isaac had a rather large movement and the reaction to his AT returning was loud enough that Nintendo heads went on record essentially saying 'Wow, we had no clue!' While this isn't as big as Sakurai talking about thinking The Wah was nothing but a meme or 'actual news outlets' talking about the purple fake Italian, this is still Nintendo acknowledging the feedback...and this was before Operation Sunfall. Isaac also has relatively big personalities on the web pushing him, so I think Golden Sun is better off than you are giving it credit for.

So something I'd like to bring up for BWD's case is not just how popular he is outside of the West, but also similarities in what Sakurai has told us about the initial Smash Ballot and results we saw with mock polls during that time and some time after. I will reference these for other characters here as well.

Spoiler: Images of Mock Smash Ballots

These are just a few of many, some of which took place during the Smash Ballot and some after, but there seems to be something interesting here that I want to point out.

Remember when people clamored to say we couldn't trust the accuracies of these polls? Well, Sakurai came out and has essentially said that Sora and B&K were the top two requests on the Ballot, which I assume is after removing all the meme picks and all the requests for veterans.

Look at just these couple of examples that show both of these characters incredibly requested (which is weird to not see Sora in earlier polls but here we are). Hell, both of these two swap around these top placements while still remaining incredibly high.

What I'm trying to say is that I think our mock polls and the data from those show more of a clear picture of the actual ballot than people realize, they are just all smaller in scope. I mean, people around the globe voted and voted more than once in the Smash Ballot, and who campaigns were started by fan bases. Think of each poll we took as a small piece of the Smash Ballot, just a peek into what was there.

For this reason, look at the placement of the blue-topped Goomba: the little guy has major pull across the globe both during 2015 and all the way into 2020 and likely even still. I mean, the trooper is #9 in the Mega Smash Poll, still placing in the top ten. I've seen bits and pieces of his support among various social media sites and they are definitely there in numbers.

Outside of this, he still has the push of Kirby being lower in reps much like DK, Zelda, Star Fox and Metroid that also gives him an increased chance of inclusion.

I'm actually short on time unfortunately, so I'll have to wrap up by saying Skull Kid, Dixie Kong and Krystal also have these advantages but to a lesser degree, with Krystal having the least of them. Basically, support for them is there for sure, but some more than others. Yet, they all have the 'not very many reps for how big they are' advantage, and Krystal and Dixie Kong have the advantage of both originally planned to be playable and Skull Kid benefits from being seemingly the #1 pick when Zelda characters come up as well as The Moon AT giving way to clear him from AT status without losing any MM ATs.

Highly disagree on Octoling.

Splatoon is a series that keeps growing and growing, and I have no doubt in my mind that it's only a matter of time until it gets a 2nd rep ala AC.

 

[Garteam]

No one is saying that you can't talk about Dee or Isaac or Waluigi because they are not hype. If anything, people concede they are some of the few first parties that have that big hype factor behind them left. Compare that to the venom that some of the first party supremacists threw around during Smash 4 and early ultimate, and going to be honest even now, and its clear which one is gatekeeping.

Ill be honest, the only first party character out of those three I care about is Isaac. I don't care for either of the other two, but if you would look at any of my posts talking about this, I mention how they are some of the last big first party requests left. Is it my fault fan polls and threads here present more evidence that at best, we have like what, maybe four big fan requests left that are first party?

I think this characterization of wanting characters only for "muh hype" is also just flat out dumb for both first party and third party picks. Think of how Terry, a character that had very minimal hype for him, or Kazuya, who similarly had little hype, have been so well received.

Finally, I want to reiterate that it is a bit messed up that you are acting like noticing a shift towards third parties is gatekeeping or even gaslighting. After Ultimate, it is clear that based on Sakurai's own comments and the picks chosen that the gates are far more open. People have freedom to talk about how they think it would be cool to see Doomguy or Dante fight Mario and Kirby. They have freedom to talk about whatever characters they want. We are in an environment where the Master Chief thread is a bastion of hope instead of getting locked for "trolling" by the mere crime of existing. I was there for Smash 4, and I can tell you that it is not gaslighting to say that an environment where you can suggest any character and see them blossom is better than one where your character might face a purity test of whether they are "Nintendo" enough. So many smaller fanbases grew in Ultimate, such as Reimu, Arle, Adol, Sakura, or KOS MOS just by that glimmer of hope after the door was opened. I think its honestly kind of gross to suggest that resistance to people wishing to bring us back to that dark place is gaslighting or gatekeeping.

No one is out here saying that you can't talk about Bandana Dee, Waluigi, or any first party. You have freedom to talk about whatever you want. You don't have white supremacists writing op eds about how your dream character would be sinful in smash. You can't compare people talking about third parties to a culture dominated by things like that.

First, I genuinely want to know where on the internet you are going and discussing Smash if you believe that third parties are getting gatekept at a higher rate than first parties because that's certainly not the response I'm seeing. As you said yourself, we are now in an era where requests like Master Chief, Reimu, Arle, Adol, and KOS MOS are taken seriously and not written off as trolling (and that's definitely a good thing, don't get me wrong). However, a community that is open to the beforementioned characters definitionally cannot be a "first party supremacist" wonderland where only Nintendo is worthy of any discussion. At the most, people completely shut off from third parties make up an incredibly small section of the Smash fanbase. There may be people who prefer first parties to third parties, but there's a large difference between that and the "there should be no third parties in Smash" people you're referring to.

On the flip side, it's slowly becoming commonplace for certain factions of the Smash fanbase to instinctually respond to a first party request in one of two ways. If it's someone from a recent game and/or rising franchise like Octoling or Ring Fit Adventurer, they just kind of grovel and go "Well, of course, they're getting in. They're Nintendo's most recent shill picks who steal spots from the characters people really want". If it's someone mostly riding on fan demand like the beforementioned three, they quickly mention "They have X, Y, and Z going against them though, so they're probably not getting in and aren't worth discussing" or (more maliciously) go "Their demand isn't real. People don't actually want these bottom of the barrel characters". These responses, at least in my experience, are much more common than people going "REEEE NINTENDO ONLY" and are a much bigger risk of getting otherwise meritorious characters effectively blacklisted from the public conversation.

Also, so what if there are only a handful of first-party picks that are largely motivated by fan demand? I don't really see how that should disqualify those characters (or any other first parties who get a sudden fan following) from being part of the discussion. We're debatably also beginning to run low on major third-party Japanese franchises that have yet to make it into Smash, does this mean that characters like Jill Valentine, Monster Hunter, or Kiryu shouldn't be discussed?

In terms of the hype point, I'm not trying to make the argument that all third parties are inherently without merit and are only being added as glorified advertising ploys. I agree that's obviously a ridiculous position to take. I would love to see the likes of Crash, Doom Marine, and Jill Valentine. I would literally cry if I saw X and/or Zero join Smash. What I am instead referring to is the growing portion of the Smash fanbase that solely wants characters for their identity and the "THEY GOT HIM IN SMASH AAAAHUOEBU" factor. The reality is, those guys go for the biggest third party names possible and are a big faction of the group I mentioned two paragraphs above.

To be fair, this group also rails against third parties like Terry and Kazuya because "What the ****! That's not Dante or Master Chief! Why's Sakurai putting in this literal who!?". However, if we're discussing when this group instinctively dismisses a character because of the company that owns them, it's highly likely the character being discussed in this scenario is a Nintendo character (or a character from one of their subsidiaries).

Once again, I have nothing against the idea of people promoting, getting excited for, or arguing for the inclusion of third parties once thought to be impossible. I'm glad people are genuinely able to discuss who they really want without fear of recourse. What I am against is people either arguing that taking first parties out of or severely diminishing their role in the public conversation is the only way to accomplish this or instinctively denying the merits of first parties to accomplish that beforementioned goal. This isn't a zero-sum game, talking about Isaac and Waluigi doesn't mean we're going to regress back to 2014 and you're going to get banned for seriously pitching Reimu. Smash has changed too much for us to ever go back to that culture.

However, with this change comes the risk we instead go to an alternate version of that culture where a different sect of characters is excluded for equally stupid reasons. I also want to foster a community where folks can talk about whomever they'd like, I just view the current landscape of the fanbase and see the biggest risks to obtaining this freeflow of ideas elsewhere.

 

[ARandomFruit]

So anyway

Smash?


Yeah, it's a cool game.

Yeah it's a cool game but you know what would make it cooler?
More Ice Characters. We have like 1 full one and like 3 characters with only 1 ice move (unless I forgot one).

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Let's justify change the subject.

Assuming ARMS would get a second character, and assuming Min Min stays, who would the second character be?

My gut tells me it would be Twintelle but I'm not sure.

My strong desire to see more female villains is saying Dr. Coyle

but I’m realistically feeling Ninjara cuz he was Sakurai’s second choice

 

[CosmicQuark]

I hate to admit it but honestly i feel smash is heading that way despite me wanting Isaac, Ninten, Harry (Teleroboxer), Grovyle, Sukapon, Black Shadow, Daroach, Skull Kid, Captain Syrup I would feel very lucky to have any of them and the truth is they are not promotional characters which Nintendo aren’t a fan of when it comes to smash characters picks unless if very very highly demanded we are probably more likely to get 3 more fire emblem characters before any of them

Same. As someone who was upset Isabelle was in Smash over Dixie Kong, I understood why, but it still didn't sit well with me, especially given Ridley and King K. Rool before that. I had to get over it and realize that the first party characters I do want aren't as popular, and the ones that will get in are either popular with other people who play more modern Nintendo stuff, or are promotional picks for Nintendo games I don't plan on playing. But that's the other side of having such a big roster--there's just so many Nintendo characters I want that's already in, that it's hard to be picky.

My only other character I feel should be in Smash, but isn't, is Crash, who is a bigger icon than most of the characters that even appeared in Ultimate (including my #1 pick). Was he not popular on the ballot, more of a hassle to work with Activision than Disney? No clue, but still feels missing. Same with Dixie Kong, another Zelda character who isn't a derivative of someone already in Smash, same with Isaac and a Rhythm Heaven character, new franchises for playable characters rather than secondary characters from popular new games. But even the characters I feel should be in, I'm not that very enthusiastic about because--well, most of the characters I really wanted and would be hyped for are already in. Even with third parties, the list of personal "hype" characters are dwindling fast.

And that's why I'm also irked by those who say I should be excited for a first party character in Smash. People should be excited for whoever they want, first or third party. Just know why third party characters are hyped up and create more of a surprise factor--if they don't personally hype you, that's perfectly valid.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Was he not popular on the ballot

Ding ding ding. Crash's revival was in 2017, and the start of his Smash demand was really in 18 with the announcement that the N. Sane Trilogy would come to Switch.

 

[CosmicQuark]

Ding ding ding. Crash's revival was in 2017, and the start of his Smash demand was really in 18 with the announcement that the N. Sane Trilogy would come to Switch.

Banjo & Kazooie following Sora on the ballot is proof positive that a series revival doesn't correlate with popularity in the ballot. Despite how much we do know, we know very little of who was on the ballot that wasn't in the game. I've heard Crash talked about even in the Smash 4 era, because back in the 90s, Mario, Sonic, and Crash were console mascots, making a collaboration with all three of them very exciting, and that never went away.

 

[Dinoman96]

Banjo & Kazooie following Sora on the ballot is proof positive that a series revival doesn't correlate with popularity in the ballot.

To be fair, Banjo only got as popular as he was because Phil Spencer gave his approval of him being in Smash as soon as the ballot started.

If it wasn't for that then no one would of bothered voting for a Microsoft owned character.

 

[Shroob]

No, but I'm afraid there's going to be a lot of people whining if the first-party:third-party newcomer ratio in Smash 6's base game is closer to Brawl's...or base 4's...or base Ultimate's...basically any ratio that isn't like what we've seen from Smash's DLC cycles.

I mean

Is that your problem?


Why worry about something at an undisclosed point in time, and over something that you have zero control over?

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Banjo & Kazooie following Sora on the ballot is proof positive that a series revival doesn't correlate with popularity in the ballot. Despite how much we do know, we know very little of who was on the ballot that wasn't in the game. I've heard Crash talked about even in the Smash 4 era, because back in the 90s, Mario, Sonic, and Crash were console mascots, making a collaboration with all three of them very exciting, and that never went away.

True, but the revival was the catalyst for Crash to blow up in Smash-related popularity and since Banjo scored high on the ballot I can only assume that our echo chamber is a non-zero predictorin ballot results.

 

[Diddy Kong]

Listen, I am going to be real with you.

Stop.

Just Stop.

You are legit making yourself and your argument look bad. Strawmanning and insulting everyone is not going to help you. You have people that do genuinely support predominatly first parties calling you out on this. Instead of taking their advice, you just push them away, acting like everyone somehow is an idiot except you.

If you do want more first party reps in smash, cool. No one is stopping you. You can make the case for Isaac, Bandana Dee, or whoever you please if you formulate a strong case. I ran RTC, I saw people make cases for picks off the beaten road. Sometimes they got in like Terry or Sephiroth. Sometimes they did not, but a support base grew. Fanbases like Reimu, Adol, Arle, Officer Howard, and the RH fans all saw solid growth over the course of Smash Ultimate in their want averages and RTC at least helped introduce people to the series. Many of them were due to people making a strong case, first or third party. They made a strong case to help make new people interested in their dream picks.

What you are doing ain't that chief. You are acting like a jerk, driving people away. You are doing this knowingly. At this point, just stop and take a break dude. Make a case for your most wanted. Be passionate. Bring up cool things about them. Don't keep digging yourself into a hole.

Oh how this fan base has grown, am so proud my child 🥲

 

[SPEN18]

Smash is both a Nintendo-specific crossover and a general gaming crossover.

Yes, Smash is trying to be both, and it's weird that it's trying to be both. I'd rather have Smash just succeed exceedingly well at being a Nintendo crossover, instead of trying and failing to be a general gaming crossover.

Yeah, I don't know how anybody could come up with some "silly" notion. Whether you like it or not, that's how Sakurai now views Smash, and it's been highly profitable for them. If you don't like it, that's fine. But there's always Melee and Mario Kart if you hate third parties.

We're well aware that Sakurai now views Smash as a celebration/representation of all of gaming. The claim is that it fails horribly at being that, and would be better off sticking primarily to Nintendo characters and a few third parties closely associated to Nintendo.

A character's a character. Regardless of who they are, where they came from, they're a video game character, they have their fans, etc.

Now replace "video game character" with "movie character," "cartoon character," "comic book character," etc. It's best if there are some limits, and I've just argued for stricter limits than most.

I think people just want more Nintendo characters that are oddly missing who wouldn't be by now if 3rd Party took a bit of a backseat.

This is part of it, but not all of it. Another part of it is that the "anything goes" attitude towards third parties makes the roster (and the game itself) seem disjointed, incoherent. There's no reasonable, feasible way for Smash right now to represent all of gaming, and even if there was, it would look really strange alongside the sea of more obscure Nintendo content that people know and love as an integral part of Smash.

, it hasn't been a Nintendo only game since Melee.

I think the argument is about what Smash should be, not what it is/has become. In fact, the argument is that what it is has some unappealing features to it.

The fact is, while there are hundreds of Nintendo characters that you could choose from, not many of them are popular right now.

It's not and has never really been about what is popular right now. It's about making a well-rounded, balanced, successful, coherent game that represents what it is aiming to represent as clearly and as fairly as it can, given the obvious limitations. Trying to get Smash to represent all of gaming enlarges the scope well beyond the threshold.

Not only did Sakurai outright say it to all of us, but he has written it multiple times in his columns.

Again, I don't think there is a dispute that the gamemaker thinks of it like this. Some people just disagree over the decision to go in this direction; hopefully we can express these opinions respectfully. Basically everybody has characters they want in the game, and others that they would prefer are not in the game; this thing that you're labelling as "gatekeeping" is not really any different than any other discussion of what characters ought to be added.

Furthermore, this might be a bitter truth to accept, but there really are not many "Nintendo All Stars" left.

Don't take "Nintendo All-Stars" too literally. The argument is that Smash could represent Nintendo's history more fully and coherently than it does now if there was less focus on external companies' content. Not that current Nintendo representation is "bad," but that it could be significantly and noticeably better.

And lastly, I don't exclude a character just because they're owned by an external company. If they have a good argument for being in the game based on relevance/significance to Nintendo, ability to fit well into the cast of primarily Nintendo characters, etc., then they get considered. But the general fact is that characters not owned by Nintendo are far less likely to reach such standards, and so I find most of them to be poor fits for helping Smash successfully represent what it is aiming to represent.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

First, I genuinely want to know where on the internet you are going and discussing Smash if you believe that third parties are getting gatekept at a higher rate than first parties because that's certainly not the response I'm seeing. As you said yourself, we are now in an era where requests like Master Chief, Reimu, Arle, Adol, and KOS MOS are taken seriously and not written off as trolling (and that's definitely a good thing, don't get me wrong). However, a community that is open to the beforementioned characters definitionally cannot be a "first party supremacist" wonderland where only Nintendo is worthy of any discussion. At the most, people completely shut off from third parties make up an incredibly small section of the Smash fanbase. There may be people who prefer first parties to third parties, but there's a large difference between that and the "there should be no third parties in Smash" people you're referring to.

On the flip side, it's slowly becoming commonplace for certain factions of the Smash fanbase to instinctually respond to a first party request in one of two ways. If it's someone from a recent game and/or rising franchise like Octoling or Ring Fit Adventurer, they just kind of grovel and go "Well, of course, they're getting in. They're Nintendo's most recent shill picks who steal spots from the characters people really want". If it's someone mostly riding on fan demand like the beforementioned three, they quickly mention "They have X, Y, and Z going against them though, so they're probably not getting in and aren't worth discussing" or (more maliciously) go "Their demand isn't real. People don't actually want these bottom of the barrel characters". These responses, at least in my experience, are much more common than people going "REEEE NINTENDO ONLY" and are a much bigger risk of getting otherwise meritorious characters effectively blacklisted from the public conversation.

Also, so what if there are only a handful of first-party picks that are largely motivated by fan demand? I don't really see how that should disqualify those characters (or any other first parties who get a sudden fan following) from being part of the discussion. We're debatably also beginning to run low on major third-party Japanese franchises that have yet to make it into Smash, does this mean that characters like Jill Valentine, Monster Hunter, or Kiryu shouldn't be discussed?

In terms of the hype point, I'm not trying to make the argument that all third parties are inherently without merit and are only being added as glorified advertising ploys. I agree that's obviously a ridiculous position to take. I would love to see the likes of Crash, Doom Marine, and Jill Valentine. I would literally cry if I saw X and/or Zero join Smash. What I am instead referring to is the growing portion of the Smash fanbase that solely wants characters for their identity and the "THEY GOT HIM IN SMASH AAAAHUOEBU" factor. The reality is, those guys go for the biggest third party names possible and are a big faction of the group I mentioned two paragraphs above.

To be fair, this group also rails against third parties like Terry and Kazuya because "What the ****! That's not Dante or Master Chief! Why's Sakurai putting in this literal who!?". However, if we're discussing when this group instinctively dismisses a character because of the company that owns them, it's highly likely the character being discussed in this scenario is a Nintendo character (or a character from one of their subsidiaries).

Once again, I have nothing against the idea of people promoting, getting excited for, or arguing for the inclusion of third parties once thought to be impossible. I'm glad people are genuinely able to discuss who they really want without fear of recourse. What I am against is people either arguing that taking first parties out of or severely diminishing their role in the public conversation is the only way to accomplish this or instinctively denying the merits of first parties to accomplish that beforementioned goal. This isn't a zero-sum game, talking about Isaac and Waluigi doesn't mean we're going to regress back to 2014 and you're going to get banned for seriously pitching Reimu. Smash has changed too much for us to ever go back to that culture.

However, with this change comes the risk we instead go to an alternate version of that culture where a different sect of characters is excluded for equally stupid reasons. I also want to foster a community where folks can talk about whomever they'd like, I just view the current landscape of the fanbase and see the biggest risks to obtaining this freeflow of ideas elsewhere.

First off, at least a strong part of that gatekeeping was historic. It is almost undeniable that there historically has been significant gatekeeping on Smashboards as a whole during the era where first parties were king. The smash fanbase as a whole has evolved into a great place where speculation on almost everything is allowed. The thing is, there still is this strong first party only contingency, which you could see if you scrolled through the past few pages. While it is a minority, it still exists.

Obviously, people have the right to prefer first parties. I know I have no right to tell someone what they can or can't want, even if I disagree with them. I think Bandana Dee would be a boring addition and I would rather they go with something more interesting moveset wise from Kirby, but people have the right to discuss the guy; he has his fans. I know people might not want to discuss say Crash or Officer Howard, but a the same time I have the right to discuss them. In this current era, we have a smash speculation environment that is a lot more open.

My big issue is that you seem insistent on making an argument where there just is not one. You do not have people actively trying to stifle any discussion to the extent there was before. While there will always be character detractors, the culture right now is far more inclusive. The Smash 4 era as I outlined earlier was terrible for that, and you have people that are arguing for us to go back to that in this thread. I was there, I was outright flamed for wanting third parties, I saw it happen to others with my own eyes. But somehow the people who don't want us to go back to that era are, in your own words, blissfully ignorant at best or manipulating speculation at worst? That era of speculation was terrible, but you yourself said in your first post that people were manipulating speculation in order to make it more beneficial for their characters. No one has that kind of power. At best, you make a passionate cas and attempt to gain supporters that way. I did it for Crash and Sephiroth, I have seen it done for countless characters like SNK as a whole, Bill Rizer, Reimu, Adol, Captain Toad, Elma, Skull Kid, and Rhythm Heaven just to name a few. And you know what? I got into Touhou and Ys because of them, and I gave XCX and Rhythm Heaven a second shot. This is the reality of what smash is. You will have people make counter arguments, as people did for each of them, but that does not mean that you can not discuss your dream pick. There really is not much of a public blacklist. I ran RTC, arguably the most critical section on whether a character is likely or not. But we still discussed characters even if they were unlikely. Heck, while some people might not like being told their character is not the most likely, it is clear that repeated ratings in RTC after a strong case only grew their support. KOS MOS, Sakura from Sakura Wars, or Reimu are great examples of this in terms of their RTC records.

The greatest extent of this first party erasure that I have seen you talk about is highlighting things like how Nintendo does not have as many holes left to fill until the next game, which to be fair is true. When we inevitably get a Smash 6, we will likely have it draw from the Switch era, which clearly has a few years left to go. While some early holes exist, like Octolings, another AC Rep, Ring Fit, and Astral Chain, there really is not as much to pull from since we do have a few years left of big switch releases to fill in the holes of smash representation. Who knows. Maybe the new Kirby game paves the way for Dee to finally be in. Maybe WarioWare or Advance Wars do well enough to get new reps. Smash historically tends to go for relevancy and popular picks, and even then its objective that there just are not as many super dominant first parties in terms of discussion. This is not Brawl of Smash 4, where picks like Little Mac, Dedede, or Diddy Kong were almost these unreasonable holes in smash speculation with massive demand. If I was being conservative, there would be around 4 right now: Dixie, Dee, Isaac, and Waluigi. Granted, there is plenty of time for new fanbases to grow, so we could see Ashley make a resurgence or Officer Howard become a huge request, its hard to say.

That is not the same as what came before, and this is my issue right now. It feels to me like you see it as a zero sum game as you put it. People discussing third parties does not mean you can't discuss first parties whatsoever. But showing an aversion to the very open and loud display of these beliefs somehow is getting discussed is somehow manipulative of speculation? That is my issue. Smashboards will always end up having elements of that culture, and it can even in this modern era of smash rear its ugly head. During the base game it was quite bad for instance. Even in an era where Chief is not a strange suggestion, this site will always have a sizeable element that you called fringe. Calling that element out is not a "manipulation" of the smash speculation environment as you yourself put it.

-----------------

As for the negative aspects of the Smash hype machine, I do agree with that. Pics that would be cool but not as super mindblowing, like Adol or Officer Howard, do suffer from this hypebeast mentality. But this mentality was there even before Smash became dominated by third parties. Before it was Master Chief and Crash, it was King K Rool and Isaac. What is the point of discussing a boring character like Robin who would not be nearly as hype as Isaac or K Rool? As someone who was one of the strongest Robin supporters in Smash 4, I can tell you I saw that line of discussion even then. It arguably has gotten worse with the advent of streaming and more reaction videos, but even then this tendency is nothing new. Hell, half to the time when it is not a "hype" pick, it can turn out super well received like Robin, Duck Hunt, Terry, Kazuya, or Rosalina and Luma.

 

[Opossum]

I think people are, willfully or otherwise, ignoring the point being made and focusing on other aspects of the argument, and that's that there is a very notable pushback against first party additions that aren't either Switch-or-newer or Waluigi and sometimes Isaac.

To illustrate, I'll use a character as an example. In particular, a character that was offhandedly thrown under the bus a page and a half ago with no pushback from anyone else: Starfy. Good old Starfy is a character that best illustrates what I'm talking about: a character with modest popularity from a fairly obscure Nintendo franchise, who was disconfirmed for Ultimate early on with the reveal of his Assist Trophy. He didn't have Waluigi level popularity, since very few characters do, so discussion died down after the Assist was shown off. That's expected. It's the natural cycle.

So what are Starfy fans to do? They were told, after all, that Starfy's odds for Ultimate were done and dusted, and they were. They were told he didn't fit Nintendo's DLC plans due to his series being on extended hiatus, and due to his role in the base game. And that was right. So what did people say? "Wait until next game, when the board is reset." And now the board is reset.

So why are people still acting like talking about characters like Starfy is a fruitless endeavor not worthy of discussion? Why are we still using DLC "rules" for an as-of-yet unannounced base game, when characters like him have their best shot?

Yes, you can say "people can still talk about those kinds of characters! Nobody is stopping them!" But that's missing the point. Yes, anybody can scream into the void. But if nobody engages with it, what's the point? Why talk about characters you'd want when it's blatantly clear most of the thread won't even entertain the possibility of those characters getting in in the future?

Instead, at best, you get people imparting their sagely knowledge almost patronizingly, like a Nick Offerman-looking father figure getting down on his knee, putting his hand on Little Timmy's shoulder, and telling him, "Well, sport...the sad truth is that Starfy didn't go to a farm upstate, he's just irrelevant. And as such, we don't want to waste our time talking about him."

And like, okay? So was Banjo. And I can hear you say, "but Banjo had fan demand." And you know why he did? Besides Phil Spencer, I mean. It's because people were allowed to talk about him. And people engaged with the conversation. But by not engaging in discussions about other characters who may be seen as obscure, you're also killing the chance of them ever getting a fanbase that large pre-emptively.

Before anyone tries to tell me I'm against third parties, third party additions are legitimately some of my favorite additions in Smash. When Sonic and Snake were added to Brawl, I was fascinated by what could be done in future games. Mega Man and Pac-Man were some of my biggest requests for Smash 4, albeit with the caveat that Pac not be his Ghostly Adventures design. When Ryu was found in the files, I was ecstatic. How cool was that? Ryu, the fighting game character, was going to be in Smash! And Cloud, the eternal never-ever, finally getting in felt so damn surreal. When Simon got leaked for Ultimate, I was super hyped, and hoped they'd use his Conan-like look. And then he did! And out of Ultimate's eleven Challenger Packs? Out of my top six (Terry, Byleth, Min Min, Steve, Sephiroth, Sora), four were third party! A whole two thirds! And even now, I would love to see the likes of Lara Croft, Frogger, Phoenix Wright, Maxwell, and (managerial changes in the future assumed) Ezio and Crash!

But as someone who also wants some fairly under the radar first parties, it's legitimately disheartening to see characters I want to see written off as "irrelevant," or "not even has-beens, but never-was-es," or "characters only diehard Nintendo nerds who spend too much time online would know even exist." If I had a dollar for every time I've seen characters like these dismissed because "all of the important Nintendo characters are already here," I'd have enough money to financially ensure the future of all of their franchises singlehandedly. It often feels that you can't try to raise support for a character unless they'd make Twitter collectively soil its pants in hype.

And dismissing these fanbases entirely as internet echo chambers just makes it a game of who can talk the loudest and control the conversation. Isaac, one of these characters who's better off, gets talked about a lot, and Golden Sun etched itself into a lot of people's hearts for being a solid RPG on a Nintendo console, a rarity for its day. When Starfy got into Super Mario Maker six or so years ago, people came out of the woodwork saying how happy they were that Nintendo remembered him. People talk about wanting genre diversity, but ignore that Dillon might just be one of the best possible characters to represent the tower defense genre. Sin and Punishment just got added to NSO, and will likely reach more people now than it ever did before, even with Nintendo's headass pricing. Takamaru's biggest obstacle for inclusion, being Japan only, is no longer the case. Sukapon got a second lease on life, getting his pink, circular foot in the door as an Assist.

And those are just the ones that get talked about somewhat often! You know what game I always, without fail, see brought up from fans of games like Ace Attorney and the Nonary Games? A game that Nintendo owns but you never see Smash fans talk about? Hotel Dusk. Despite Kyle Hyde having a trophy in Brawl (an animated one at that!) and a spirit in Ultimate, and despite Hotel Dusk being a cult classic, the game doesn't get discussed in the context of Smash, showing that yes, blind spots exist among those who look at first parties, as well. So many ideas can get tossed around and people can learn new things about games they didn't know about. It's nice. But all too often it feels like the conversation gets neutered before it can happen because people have already made up their mind. And often, it's simply because it's a Nintendo character that isn't new or Waluigi.

Because hot damn does it suck. Like when Maximilian Dood's reaction to the Byleth presentation is an uninterested "is this a waifu game" jab. Or when Honest Trailers had that god awful "Now they're scraping the bottom of the barrel. Who knew who Shulk was before this game? Congrats, you're now Japanese," which was frankly infuriating. Like Jesus Christ just use Google you unfunny voice over man. Look at Project Rainfall. It's not hard. Well joke's on you, now your channel is owned by Fandom and people rightfully hate it. Anyway.

Being pushed aside with the Smash Speculation Forum equivalent of "be quiet, the adults are talking" ****ing sucks, and I'll no longer pretend that it doesn't.

So that was my rant. I apologize to Nick Offerman on the off chance he's here, because damn it you never know.

 

[Shroob]

Now replace "video game character" with "movie character," "cartoon character," "comic book character," etc. It's best if there are some limits, and I've just argued for stricter limits than most.

I see no problem with this.

 

[CosmicQuark]

To be fair, Banjo only got as popular as he was because Phil Spencer gave his approval of him being in Smash as soon as the ballot started.

If it wasn't for that then no one would of bothered voting for a Microsoft owned character.

I think it’s important to distinguish between popularity and strategic voting. They certainly got more votes thanks to Phil Spencer okaying it, but that made more public what people already wanted, as Sakurai mentioned they were popular during Melee when people still thought Nintendo owned them. It didn’t go away, it was there, just needed to be seen as more realistic choice. The revival was likely a similar motivational push for Crash, but that was because since he was no longer “irrelevant” Crash was back as a possibility, but probably still highly wanted before that. But that’s just a guess since we don’t have the official results, and everything they’ve said about the ballot goes against a lot of fan polls. Also some of the characters that did get in because of the ballot has already made me skeptical of what I thought it would look like—hence Crash not being popular is still a possibility despite my perception of discourse.

EDIT:

We're well aware that Sakurai now views Smash as a celebration/representation of all of gaming. The claim is that it fails horribly at being that, and would be better off sticking primarily to Nintendo characters and a few third parties closely associated to Nintendo.

It's really hard to see how a post like this could be genuine--it reads like "Because they don't have Master Chief or Kratos, it's not a celebration of gaming so let's just stick to Nintendo." That line of thought really baffles me. But to everyone else I've read and watched and to me, not only did Sakurai succeed in a celebration of gaming, but also exceeded expectations by making deals with Microsoft and Disney to allow characters people thought were once impossible. Maybe that's not Smash to you, maybe you'd rather have a game like Melee, in which case, enjoy, it exists. But since Brawl, Smash has become more than that. For the rest of us who sees Smash as more than that, we'd like more of that rather than throwing everything away and going a different direction. At that point, get rid of the Smash label and call it Nintendo All-Stars and make it it's own separate series. And if that's what you want, fine, but you're not very convincing that that's what Smash should be, how fans and the market would react to that.

 

[Geno Boost]

Let's justify change the subject.

Assuming ARMS would get a second character, and assuming Min Min stays, who would the second character be?

My gut tells me it would be Twintelle but I'm not sure.

I don’t want any I dropped that game in less than a week after buying it lol
but if I had to choose I would go with Dr. Coyle since turning invisible with long arms attacks sounds interesting and fun also she is a villain so it’s always good to have more

 

[Trevenant]

So anyway

Smash?


Yeah, it's a cool game.

What one?

 

[Guynamednelson]

Now they're scraping the bottom of the barrel

The worst part is that during that segment, half of the "bottom of the barrel" picks were Smash 4's Mario newcomers.

There's ignorance about Xenoblade, and then there's ignorance about recurring Mario characters.

 

[Geno Boost]

Whatever happened to the people who wanted Code name steam rep in smash where did they all go during smash ultimate speculation?
Did they completely vanish?

 

[PeridotGX]

Whatever happened to the people who wanted Code name steam rep in smash where did they all go during smash ultimate speculation?
Did they completely vanish?

but abraham lincoln isn't from a video game. And Indiana Jones caught his leg, he tripped, and took him out with his whip.

 

[dream1ng]

Banjo & Kazooie following Sora on the ballot is proof positive that a series revival doesn't correlate with popularity in the ballot. Despite how much we do know, we know very little of who was on the ballot that wasn't in the game. I've heard Crash talked about even in the Smash 4 era, because back in the 90s, Mario, Sonic, and Crash were console mascots, making a collaboration with all three of them very exciting, and that never went away.

Yeah he was talked about insofar as it's not like he was never mentioned, but his demand really didn't rebound until the revival, and then continued to climb once the port came to Switch.

Banjo may be from the same time period and overall genre, but it's not an apples to apples comparison because Banjo's popularity stemmed from his first-party history and was just put on ice until people thought his inclusion possible again. If Rare had been bought by a company that wasn't an outright competitor, it's likely the popularity never would've disappeared like it did.

Just being a console mascot doesn't mean high popularity is going to trace back a commensurate distance. Look at Master Chief. Until comparatively recently, being a rival console's mascot, even an unofficial one, wasn't seen as a strength. Unless that company wasn't a competitor anymore, like Sega.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I think people are, willfully or otherwise, ignoring the point being made and focusing on other aspects of the argument, and that's that there is a very notable pushback against first party additions that aren't either Switch-or-newer or Waluigi and sometimes Isaac.

To illustrate, I'll use a character as an example. In particular, a character that was offhandedly thrown under the bus a page and a half ago with no pushback from anyone else: Starfy. Good old Starfy is a character that best illustrates what I'm talking about: a character with modest popularity from a fairly obscure Nintendo franchise, who was disconfirmed for Ultimate early on with the reveal of his Assist Trophy. He didn't have Waluigi level popularity, since very few characters do, so discussion died down after the Assist was shown off. That's expected. It's the natural cycle.

So what are Starfy fans to do? They were told, after all, that Starfy's odds for Ultimate were done and dusted, and they were. They were told he didn't fit Nintendo's DLC plans due to his series being on extended hiatus, and due to his role in the base game. And that was right. So what did people say? "Wait until next game, when the board is reset." And now the board is reset.

So why are people still acting like talking about characters like Starfy is a fruitless endeavor not worthy of discussion? Why are we still using DLC "rules" for an as-of-yet unannounced base game, when characters like him have their best shot?

Yes, you can say "people can still talk about those kinds of characters! Nobody is stopping them!" But that's missing the point. Yes, anybody can scream into the void. But if nobody engages with it, what's the point? Why talk about characters you'd want when it's blatantly clear most of the thread won't even entertain the possibility of those characters getting in in the future?

Instead, at best, you get people imparting their sagely knowledge almost patronizingly, like a Nick Offerman-looking father figure getting down on his knee, putting his hand on Little Timmy's shoulder, and telling him, "Well, sport...the sad truth is that Starfy didn't go to a farm upstate, he's just irrelevant. And as such, we don't want to waste our time talking about him."

And like, okay? So was Banjo. And I can hear you say, "but Banjo had fan demand." And you know why he did? Besides Phil Spencer, I mean. It's because people were allowed to talk about him. And people engaged with the conversation. But by not engaging in discussions about other characters who may be seen as obscure, you're also killing the chance of them ever getting a fanbase that large pre-emptively.

Before anyone tries to tell me I'm against third parties, third party additions are legitimately some of my favorite additions in Smash. When Sonic and Snake were added to Brawl, I was fascinated by what could be done in future games. Mega Man and Pac-Man were some of my biggest requests for Smash 4, albeit with the caveat that Pac not be his Ghostly Adventures design. When Ryu was found in the files, I was ecstatic. How cool was that? Ryu, the fighting game character, was going to be in Smash! And Cloud, the eternal never-ever, finally getting in felt so damn surreal. When Simon got leaked for Ultimate, I was super hyped, and hoped they'd use his Conan-like look. And then he did! And out of Ultimate's eleven Challenger Packs? Out of my top six (Terry, Byleth, Min Min, Steve, Sephiroth, Sora), four were third party! A whole two thirds! And even now, I would love to see the likes of Lara Croft, Frogger, Phoenix Wright, Maxwell, and (managerial changes in the future assumed) Ezio and Crash!

But as someone who also wants some fairly under the radar first parties, it's legitimately disheartening to see characters I want to see written off as "irrelevant," or "not even has-beens, but never-was-es," or "characters only diehard Nintendo nerds who spend too much time online would know even exist." If I had a dollar for every time I've seen characters like these dismissed because "all of the important Nintendo characters are already here," I'd have enough money to financially ensure the future of all of their franchises singlehandedly. It often feels that you can't try to raise support for a character unless they'd make Twitter collectively soil its pants in hype.

And dismissing these fanbases entirely as internet echo chambers just makes it a game of who can talk the loudest and control the conversation. Isaac, one of these characters who's better off, gets talked about a lot, and Golden Sun etched itself into a lot of people's hearts for being a solid RPG on a Nintendo console, a rarity for its day. When Starfy got into Super Mario Maker six or so years ago, people came out of the woodwork saying how happy they were that Nintendo remembered him. People talk about wanting genre diversity, but ignore that Dillon might just be one of the best possible characters to represent the tower defense genre. Sin and Punishment just got added to NSO, and will likely reach more people now than it ever did before, even with Nintendo's headass pricing. Takamaru's biggest obstacle for inclusion, being Japan only, is no longer the case. Sukapon got a second lease on life, getting his pink, circular foot in the door as an Assist.

And those are just the ones that get talked about somewhat often! You know what game I always, without fail, see brought up from fans of games like Ace Attorney and the Nonary Games? A game that Nintendo owns but you never see Smash fans talk about? Hotel Dusk. Despite Kyle Hyde having a trophy in Brawl (an animated one at that!) and a spirit in Ultimate, and despite Hotel Dusk being a cult classic, the game doesn't get discussed in the context of Smash, showing that yes, blind spots exist among those who look at first parties, as well. So many ideas can get tossed around and people can learn new things about games they didn't know about. It's nice. But all too often it feels like the conversation gets neutered before it can happen because people have already made up their mind. And often, it's simply because it's a Nintendo character that isn't new or Waluigi.

Because hot damn does it suck. Like when Maximilian Dood's reaction to the Byleth presentation is an uninterested "is this a waifu game" jab. Or when Honest Trailers had that god awful "Now they're scraping the bottom of the barrel. Who knew who Shulk was before this game? Congrats, you're now Japanese," which was frankly infuriating. Like Jesus Christ just use Google you unfunny voice over man. Look at Project Rainfall. It's not hard. Well joke's on you, now you're channel is owned by Fandom and people rightfully hate it. Anyway.

Being pushed aside with the Smash Speculation Forum equivalent of "be quiet, the adults are talking" ****ing sucks, and I'll no longer pretend that it doesn't.

So that was my rant. I apologize to Nick Offerman on the off chance he's here, because damn it you never know.

The issue is, there has always been this sort of pushback for picks like that.

Imagine trying to support Custom Robo or Sin and Punnishment in Smash 4. You know what happened? Both of them got pushed aside for the same reasons you listed in your Starfy example. Or imagine trying to support Pauline for Ultimate, you would meet the same kind of resistance. It is not some artifact of big bad third parties or what have you dominating speculation that causes picks to be sidelined. While the exact wording has changed, the echo chamber that speculation can be has not.

You act like you have no right to discuss whatever character you want because someone calls them unlikely, and that is just bull crap. You can discuss whoever you want, regardless of whatever stern parental metaphorical Nick Offerman says. Metaphorical Nick Offferman does not control what you like. So long as you share why you like a character, you will get more people to slowly or quickly pick up on that. In my tenure at RTC, probably my favorite day were days like SNK as a concept before Terry or Adol: these were both niche ideas in the grand scheme of things, but people made an impassioned plea and it worked. Both did quite well for themselves and earned new fans.

Smash Speculation has always been like that. Hell, I remember in Smash 4 there was that same dismissive attitude towards Robin because Chrom was so obvious. There will always be this tribal mentality over speculation, with people getting defensive when people think their pick is unlikely and the masses as a whole latching onto the "likely" characters. It naturally creates the atmosphere that you dislike. This is not some remnant of the DLC era that is still looming over speculation, it is a natural facet of that.

And I ****ing hate how it is so prevalent l and how personally people take it at the same time.

When I ran RTC, people said some very not nice things because I said their most wanted was unlikely. Never mind in plenty of circumstances I highlighted that they would be cool and I would be open to it. I hate how often, people will just use likelyhood to shut down an argument. We as a community are not perfect at speculation. Even though imo RTC did a great job, getting curveballs like Sephiroth and Terry right, we had our swing and misses as well. I hate that people do use character likelyhood as a method to just shut down speculation. At the same time, when I ran RTC, some of the most empassioned posts were want posts gushing about character love and making a case to others. It honestly was great seeing write ups for picks like Adol, Bill Rizer, Crypto from Destroy All Humans, or Elma get a lot of love and passion. Yeah, it sucks when people shut down whatever character you want to discuss with likelyhood, but at the end of the day, most of those people will be wrong about at least one character's likelyhood. There is nothing stopping you from supporting a pick like I did for Robin or Sephiroth because they were unlikely. You have the freedom to support who you want and discuss them, no matter what people say.

The only person who stops you from talking about your most wanted is you. Smash speculation as an environment can be awful. Nothing sucks more than making a case for a character, talking about how cool they would be, only for someone to respond "Ehh seph aint happening there are many square reps before many ff reps before and we wont get a second unique ff rep" or "robin wont happen chrom is the obvious choice he is the mascot of the game robin isnt even on the box". But pick yourself up by the bootstraps and keep going. The only person who stops the discussion for Kyle Hyde or Starfy is you. If you want to discuss him, discuss him. No one is stopping you but yourself.

 

[Trevenant]

If ARMS got anything else, barring the potential impact some future installment could and likely would have should it happen, I imagine it would probably be Springman. A more simplistic take on Min Min seems like a pretty smart avenue to go around. He'd likely have more streamlined ARMS, his tilts would probably forgo the kicks and just allow for easier ways to angle the ARMS, and I assume would be able to switch both gloves unlike Min Min who only can't because of the dragon arm upgrade thing on grabs. This would have made way more sense before Min Min, but I think it makes the most sense if we're talking based on the initial game only.

 

[ForsakenM]

I think people are, willfully or otherwise, ignoring the point being made and focusing on other aspects of the argument, and that's that there is a very notable pushback against first party additions that aren't either Switch-or-newer or Waluigi and sometimes Isaac.

To illustrate, I'll use a character as an example. In particular, a character that was offhandedly thrown under the bus a page and a half ago with no pushback from anyone else: Starfy. Good old Starfy is a character that best illustrates what I'm talking about: a character with modest popularity from a fairly obscure Nintendo franchise, who was disconfirmed for Ultimate early on with the reveal of his Assist Trophy. He didn't have Waluigi level popularity, since very few characters do, so discussion died down after the Assist was shown off. That's expected. It's the natural cycle.

So what are Starfy fans to do? They were told, after all, that Starfy's odds for Ultimate were done and dusted, and they were. They were told he didn't fit Nintendo's DLC plans due to his series being on extended hiatus, and due to his role in the base game. And that was right. So what did people say? "Wait until next game, when the board is reset." And now the board is reset.

So why are people still acting like talking about characters like Starfy is a fruitless endeavor not worthy of discussion? Why are we still using DLC "rules" for an as-of-yet unannounced base game, when characters like him have their best shot?

Yes, you can say "people can still talk about those kinds of characters! Nobody is stopping them!" But that's missing the point. Yes, anybody can scream into the void. But if nobody engages with it, what's the point? Why talk about characters you'd want when it's blatantly clear most of the thread won't even entertain the possibility of those characters getting in in the future?

Instead, at best, you get people imparting their sagely knowledge almost patronizingly, like a Nick Offerman-looking father figure getting down on his knee, putting his hand on Little Timmy's shoulder, and telling him, "Well, sport...the sad truth is that Starfy didn't go to a farm upstate, he's just irrelevant. And as such, we don't want to waste our time talking about him."

And like, okay? So was Banjo. And I can hear you say, "but Banjo had fan demand." And you know why he did? Besides Phil Spencer, I mean. It's because people were allowed to talk about him. And people engaged with the conversation. But by not engaging in discussions about other characters who may be seen as obscure, you're also killing the chance of them ever getting a fanbase that large pre-emptively.

Before anyone tries to tell me I'm against third parties, third party additions are legitimately some of my favorite additions in Smash. When Sonic and Snake were added to Brawl, I was fascinated by what could be done in future games. Mega Man and Pac-Man were some of my biggest requests for Smash 4, albeit with the caveat that Pac not be his Ghostly Adventures design. When Ryu was found in the files, I was ecstatic. How cool was that? Ryu, the fighting game character, was going to be in Smash! And Cloud, the eternal never-ever, finally getting in felt so damn surreal. When Simon got leaked for Ultimate, I was super hyped, and hoped they'd use his Conan-like look. And then he did! And out of Ultimate's eleven Challenger Packs? Out of my top six (Terry, Byleth, Min Min, Steve, Sephiroth, Sora), four were third party! A whole two thirds! And even now, I would love to see the likes of Lara Croft, Frogger, Phoenix Wright, Maxwell, and (managerial changes in the future assumed) Ezio and Crash!

But as someone who also wants some fairly under the radar first parties, it's legitimately disheartening to see characters I want to see written off as "irrelevant," or "not even has-beens, but never-was-es," or "characters only diehard Nintendo nerds who spend too much time online would know even exist." If I had a dollar for every time I've seen characters like these dismissed because "all of the important Nintendo characters are already here," I'd have enough money to financially ensure the future of all of their franchises singlehandedly. It often feels that you can't try to raise support for a character unless they'd make Twitter collectively soil its pants in hype.

And dismissing these fanbases entirely as internet echo chambers just makes it a game of who can talk the loudest and control the conversation. Isaac, one of these characters who's better off, gets talked about a lot, and Golden Sun etched itself into a lot of people's hearts for being a solid RPG on a Nintendo console, a rarity for its day. When Starfy got into Super Mario Maker six or so years ago, people came out of the woodwork saying how happy they were that Nintendo remembered him. People talk about wanting genre diversity, but ignore that Dillon might just be one of the best possible characters to represent the tower defense genre. Sin and Punishment just got added to NSO, and will likely reach more people now than it ever did before, even with Nintendo's headass pricing. Takamaru's biggest obstacle for inclusion, being Japan only, is no longer the case. Sukapon got a second lease on life, getting his pink, circular foot in the door as an Assist.

And those are just the ones that get talked about somewhat often! You know what game I always, without fail, see brought up from fans of games like Ace Attorney and the Nonary Games? A game that Nintendo owns but you never see Smash fans talk about? Hotel Dusk. Despite Kyle Hyde having a trophy in Brawl (an animated one at that!) and a spirit in Ultimate, and despite Hotel Dusk being a cult classic, the game doesn't get discussed in the context of Smash, showing that yes, blind spots exist among those who look at first parties, as well. So many ideas can get tossed around and people can learn new things about games they didn't know about. It's nice. But all too often it feels like the conversation gets neutered before it can happen because people have already made up their mind. And often, it's simply because it's a Nintendo character that isn't new or Waluigi.

Because hot damn does it suck. Like when Maximilian Dood's reaction to the Byleth presentation is an uninterested "is this a waifu game" jab. Or when Honest Trailers had that god awful "Now they're scraping the bottom of the barrel. Who knew who Shulk was before this game? Congrats, you're now Japanese," which was frankly infuriating. Like Jesus Christ just use Google you unfunny voice over man. Look at Project Rainfall. It's not hard. Well joke's on you, now your channel is owned by Fandom and people rightfully hate it. Anyway.

Being pushed aside with the Smash Speculation Forum equivalent of "be quiet, the adults are talking" ****ing sucks, and I'll no longer pretend that it doesn't.

So that was my rant. I apologize to Nick Offerman on the off chance he's here, because damn it you never know.

Honest Trailers has been garbage for some time. Glad to see they are getting some sort of comeuppance.

As someone who watches Max and has for years now, sometimes he thinks he's more funny than he actually comes off to be. That said, the dude clearly has expressed his gaming interests, and Fire Emblem in no way falls into that list...and when you consider that popular opinion of Fire Emblem often points to the mobile game which can be very much seen as a waifu collector and the content that Japanese games with relationships in them like to put in, it's not hard to see where that kind of remark comes from.

As for how you feel about being a Starfy fan and pushing for Starfy to be playable in Smash, I'll say that I know nothing about him or his series, but I'll encourage you to keep bringing him up and talking about him wherever you can drum up some sort of support. I have no idea what this Hotel Dusk is you are talking about, but the name sounds cool, but keep doing your thing. TCT~Phantom did a pretty good job of telling to basically flip the bird to anyone who tries to shove you out of general speculation for bringing up characters you want and their chances, and I support that 100%

I know it's not quite the same since the puppet got big and was popular during the time, but regardless of how much the community thinks he's likely I'm not gonna stop talking about Geno or his chances. I'll also push for a Skullgirls character in Smash even though it will never happen, because I love the game and I think it would be sick to see it get recognized in Smash, and people telling me it won't happen won't make me stop.

Basically, as long as you aren't somewhere that it doesn't make sense to talk about it, just ****ing talk about it. The characters you want won't gain any steam if you just back down when people talk **** about them. You gotta press forward and build a community around the character, sharing art and ideas and above all else your desire for the character to be playable. We may have gotten wound up to tight, but the Geno community got so big because people who shared their love for him all found each other in the same place. You might have to put in some effort, but I'm sure you could get something rolling for Starfy if you got enough people to commit to it.

 

[Opossum]

Whatever happened to the people who wanted Code name steam rep in smash where did they all go during smash ultimate speculation?
Did they completely vanish?

Henry Fleming is legit one of my most wanteds. I was ecstatic that Code Name: S.T.E.A.M. got a remix.

 

[7NATOR]

I think people are, willfully or otherwise, ignoring the point being made and focusing on other aspects of the argument, and that's that there is a very notable pushback against first party additions that aren't either Switch-or-newer or Waluigi and sometimes Isaac.

To illustrate, I'll use a character as an example. In particular, a character that was offhandedly thrown under the bus a page and a half ago with no pushback from anyone else: Starfy. Good old Starfy is a character that best illustrates what I'm talking about: a character with modest popularity from a fairly obscure Nintendo franchise, who was disconfirmed for Ultimate early on with the reveal of his Assist Trophy. He didn't have Waluigi level popularity, since very few characters do, so discussion died down after the Assist was shown off. That's expected. It's the natural cycle.

So what are Starfy fans to do? They were told, after all, that Starfy's odds for Ultimate were done and dusted, and they were. They were told he didn't fit Nintendo's DLC plans due to his series being on extended hiatus, and due to his role in the base game. And that was right. So what did people say? "Wait until next game, when the board is reset." And now the board is reset.

So why are people still acting like talking about characters like Starfy is a fruitless endeavor not worthy of discussion? Why are we still using DLC "rules" for an as-of-yet unannounced base game, when characters like him have their best shot?

Yes, you can say "people can still talk about those kinds of characters! Nobody is stopping them!" But that's missing the point. Yes, anybody can scream into the void. But if nobody engages with it, what's the point? Why talk about characters you'd want when it's blatantly clear most of the thread won't even entertain the possibility of those characters getting in in the future?

Instead, at best, you get people imparting their sagely knowledge almost patronizingly, like a Nick Offerman-looking father figure getting down on his knee, putting his hand on Little Timmy's shoulder, and telling him, "Well, sport...the sad truth is that Starfy didn't go to a farm upstate, he's just irrelevant. And as such, we don't want to waste our time talking about him."

And like, okay? So was Banjo. And I can hear you say, "but Banjo had fan demand." And you know why he did? Besides Phil Spencer, I mean. It's because people were allowed to talk about him. And people engaged with the conversation. But by not engaging in discussions about other characters who may be seen as obscure, you're also killing the chance of them ever getting a fanbase that large pre-emptively.

Before anyone tries to tell me I'm against third parties, third party additions are legitimately some of my favorite additions in Smash. When Sonic and Snake were added to Brawl, I was fascinated by what could be done in future games. Mega Man and Pac-Man were some of my biggest requests for Smash 4, albeit with the caveat that Pac not be his Ghostly Adventures design. When Ryu was found in the files, I was ecstatic. How cool was that? Ryu, the fighting game character, was going to be in Smash! And Cloud, the eternal never-ever, finally getting in felt so damn surreal. When Simon got leaked for Ultimate, I was super hyped, and hoped they'd use his Conan-like look. And then he did! And out of Ultimate's eleven Challenger Packs? Out of my top six (Terry, Byleth, Min Min, Steve, Sephiroth, Sora), four were third party! A whole two thirds! And even now, I would love to see the likes of Lara Croft, Frogger, Phoenix Wright, Maxwell, and (managerial changes in the future assumed) Ezio and Crash!

But as someone who also wants some fairly under the radar first parties, it's legitimately disheartening to see characters I want to see written off as "irrelevant," or "not even has-beens, but never-was-es," or "characters only diehard Nintendo nerds who spend too much time online would know even exist." If I had a dollar for every time I've seen characters like these dismissed because "all of the important Nintendo characters are already here," I'd have enough money to financially ensure the future of all of their franchises singlehandedly. It often feels that you can't try to raise support for a character unless they'd make Twitter collectively soil its pants in hype.

And dismissing these fanbases entirely as internet echo chambers just makes it a game of who can talk the loudest and control the conversation. Isaac, one of these characters who's better off, gets talked about a lot, and Golden Sun etched itself into a lot of people's hearts for being a solid RPG on a Nintendo console, a rarity for its day. When Starfy got into Super Mario Maker six or so years ago, people came out of the woodwork saying how happy they were that Nintendo remembered him. People talk about wanting genre diversity, but ignore that Dillon might just be one of the best possible characters to represent the tower defense genre. Sin and Punishment just got added to NSO, and will likely reach more people now than it ever did before, even with Nintendo's headass pricing. Takamaru's biggest obstacle for inclusion, being Japan only, is no longer the case. Sukapon got a second lease on life, getting his pink, circular foot in the door as an Assist.

And those are just the ones that get talked about somewhat often! You know what game I always, without fail, see brought up from fans of games like Ace Attorney and the Nonary Games? A game that Nintendo owns but you never see Smash fans talk about? Hotel Dusk. Despite Kyle Hyde having a trophy in Brawl (an animated one at that!) and a spirit in Ultimate, and despite Hotel Dusk being a cult classic, the game doesn't get discussed in the context of Smash, showing that yes, blind spots exist among those who look at first parties, as well. So many ideas can get tossed around and people can learn new things about games they didn't know about. It's nice. But all too often it feels like the conversation gets neutered before it can happen because people have already made up their mind. And often, it's simply because it's a Nintendo character that isn't new or Waluigi.

Because hot damn does it suck. Like when Maximilian Dood's reaction to the Byleth presentation is an uninterested "is this a waifu game" jab. Or when Honest Trailers had that god awful "Now they're scraping the bottom of the barrel. Who knew who Shulk was before this game? Congrats, you're now Japanese," which was frankly infuriating. Like Jesus Christ just use Google you unfunny voice over man. Look at Project Rainfall. It's not hard. Well joke's on you, now your channel is owned by Fandom and people rightfully hate it. Anyway.

Being pushed aside with the Smash Speculation Forum equivalent of "be quiet, the adults are talking" ****ing sucks, and I'll no longer pretend that it doesn't.

So that was my rant. I apologize to Nick Offerman on the off chance he's here, because damn it you never know.

Well I will say that people that do want/wish Smash would just be a Nintendo Crossover game do have a point. Starfy is just an example of the Sacrifice that Smash has made once it decided it wanted to expand to Games outside of Nintendo.

The thing about Rosters and such, and honestly this applies to Life itself, is that it's not only the Characters in the Roster that makes it Special, but it's also the Characters that are not on the Roster

Many people don't want to discuss Starfy, or engage about his Possibilities because there are much Bigger Fish in the Sea not just from the standpoint of how Big Certain Characters and Franchises are, but that people have more Stake and Attachment to those characters than a Character like Starfy. If we lived in a World where Smash kept to being a 1st Party only game, and it was adding in all these characters, even the Super Niche ones on a Regular Basis, then People would be more Inclined to talk about characters like Starfy, or Dillion, or Kyle. On the other side, I don't Imagine as many people would even be engaged with Speculation. Because of the addition of 3rd parties, Characters listed above are not Special in the Grand Scheme of things.

The expansion to 3rd parties is why the Fanbase has grown to the Size it has, but it's also why It's Kind of Dilliuted in some aspects. The Niche areas of the Fanbase are getting Pushed more and more out of the Fanbase in terms of Creditability, while Bigger Fanbases are walking in, or Fanbases are evolving to become bigger, And Nintendo and Sakurai do seem to want to continue in the Path that's been established with Brawl, so with that in Mind Some Characters are getting the culling. Unless Nintendo decides to do something with those characters, or Fanbases advertise themselves to a great degree, those Fanbases will be dying off. Those Fanbases need a Spark of Life, that's what Happened with Advance Wars and look at them now

Keep up the Good fight though, but just remember that many might not be involved due to Apathy and the such. It's like if someone wanted Air Man from Mega Man in the game. They suggest it, they get roasted or Laughed out the room, or just Ignored, and that's that, all the while there's no Indication that Sakurai and Nintendo are looking in that direction. It's up to the Fanbase if they want to continue in spite of that, but it's aspects that is gonna stay. You could find Fellow Fans that will be willing to Discuss the Subject, Congregate together, slowly Build and Motivate, and Come back and spread the word with more people behind. With that said, it's gonna be what it's gonna be

 

[PeridotGX]

Come to think of it, you know a game that got dealt a really bad hand? Ever Oasis. It released the summer of 2017, it was a new Nintendo IP with potential, everyone who played it seemed tyo like it. Seems like a shoe in for FP2 along with ARMS and Xenoblade 2, right?

Here's the problem - it was a late 3DS game, not an early switch one. It was developed by Grezzo, aka Nintendo's remake studio, so it might get a second chance like miitopia did, but i'm not very optimistic.

 

[DaUsername]

Whatever happened to the people who wanted Code name steam rep in smash where did they all go during smash ultimate speculation?
Did they completely vanish?

The game bombed really really hard in the sales department so most people accepted that it wouldn't happen.