Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Swamp Sensei]

Neat list!

- Game & Watch
- Metal Gear
- R.O.B.
- Wii Fit
- Duck Hunt
- Tekken

So Tekken and Metal Gear are the only ones of the last category that aren't Nintendo properties...

If they brought GBA to NSO and launched Tekken Advance then that would just leave ...

Metal Gear!

Maybe they'll drop the NES game, never played it.

Honestly, out of those franchises, I think the most likely ones to appear are Game & Watch and Duck Hunt. Mostly through NSO releases of Game & Watch Galleries and Duck Hunt respectively.

R.O.B. and Wii Fit are tied to their hardware, Tekken is focused on 8 right now and Metal Gear is on life support.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I think Metal Gear releases are a possibility, but its a tricky situation.

At the moment Konami are very strongly focused on modest releases for the Japanese market, essentially counting on solid returns via less costly games. There is some stuff for the West with the various collections and Super Bomberman R, but the days of investing big money in AAA games that sell big in America and Europe are long over. MG is thus in a weird spot; remasters are the most obvious path, yet those aren't necessarily going to be cheap either, and its quality would be very much scrutinized by Western fans after the... controversial release of Survive.

It is in a better spot than Silent Hill which lacks even Metal Gear Solid's Japanese popularity which makes the latter fit in far in less into Konami's current strategy. Within that context, its both why Suikoden was the more logical (to them) revival than SH, and why I remain skeptical of a lot of the recent leaks/rumors about the latter supposedly getting Playstation exclusive entries. Sony has lost so much of the marketshare to Nintendo back home that I find it hard to believe that Konami would willingly limit potential sales from a Switch release unless the former was paying for most of the development costs.

Basically I think a Metal Gear Collection/Remaster could be coming, but one very tightly budgeted, not hugely ambitious, and very much designed to maximize sales (though thankfully releasing on Switch fits entirely into that).

 

[dream1ng]

I didn't see where you say you disagree.

If we make it three or four posts into a debate and you can't tell whether I disagree with you or not, I question your reading comprehension.

You just seemed to assume that I thought certain characters will come back as long as they have an argument for why they would. I'm just merely saying that Joker is a character I can picture not coming back for different reasons.

No, that's not merely what you were saying. You said, and I quote

Joker is the only character I can picture not returning.

You know as well as I do, as well as everyone else does, that this very clearly means not being able to picture any of the other characters not returning, so don't play dumb or move the goalposts here.

It's true that I didn't know the reason you believed all the others would return, but as long as you can articulate what your reason is, my post applies.

You're acting as if saying "it's wild for Nintendo to do that" is some kind of counterpoint at all. You also seem like you know how long it would take them to do that when, once again, neither the game or the console we're talking even exist right now. All of this goes right back to what I said about Ultimate; you just never know with this series.

Perhaps you should read the following sentence where I explain why it'd be wild for Nintendo to do that. The timeframe I presented was based on precedent of how many characters they get done in a certain amount of time. If you think it would differ drastically, then you're basing it on literally nothing at all.

You aren't really grasping how repeating "you never know" in no way discredits notions that are actually supported by evidence and logic, because you're countering grounded theories with fanciful propositions devoid of any logistic detail while thinking the two are somehow equally sound.

So if this is your only line of defence, I think that speaks to the validity of the counterargument.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Honestly, out of those franchises, I think the most likely ones to appear are Game & Watch and Duck Hunt. Mostly through NSO releases of Game & Watch Galleries and Duck Hunt respectively.

R.O.B. and Wii Fit are tied to their hardware, Tekken is focused on 8 right now and Metal Gear is on life support.

I'm reminded I once had an idea for a Kid Icarus Uprising-esque revival for R.O.B....

 

[Wonder Smash]

If we make it three or four posts into a debate and you can't tell whether I disagree with you or not, I question your reading comprehension.

That depends what you say in your post.

No, that's not merely what you were saying. You said, and I quote

You know as well as I do, as well as everyone else does, that this very clearly means not being able to picture any of the other characters not returning, so don't play dumb or move the goalposts here.

It's true that I didn't know the reason you believed all the others would return, but as long as you can articulate what your reason is, my post applies.

Yes, that is indeed merely what I was saying, as you can see in what you just quoted. I'm not sure exactly what you're getting at.

Perhaps you should read the following sentence where I explain why it'd be wild for Nintendo to do that. The timeframe I presented was based on precedent of how many characters they get done in a certain amount of time. If you think it would differ drastically, then you're basing it on literally nothing at all.

You're just saying "it's wild" for them to do that, which is not even a real argument. It doesn't mean Nintendo won't do it. All you're just doing is pointing out how crazy it is. But in the end, so what? As wild and crazy as it sounds, even you can't say for sure that Nintendo won't do it. In the end, nobody can, especially at this point when neither the game or the console that it will be made for doesn't exist right now.

You aren't really grasping how repeating "you never know" in no way discredits notions that are actually supported by evidence and logic, because you're countering grounded theories with fanciful propositions devoid of any logistic detail while thinking the two are somehow equally sound.

So if this is your only line of defence, I think that speaks to the validity of the counterargument.

All you're doing is going by what happened with previous games which tells us nothing about a potential future game that doesn't even exist right now, so your stance on this is no different from anybody else. I can easily say Nintendo can add up to 100 characters the next game simply because the amount of work they put in Ultimate where they almost added 100 characters in that game. But in the end, one fact nobody can deny is that nobody knows, including you. That fact seems to bother you for some reason but you're just going to have to accept that for now.

 

[fogbadge]

I'm reminded I once had an idea for a Kid Icarus Uprising-esque revival for R.O.B....

go on

 

[Goombaic]

Erdrick was the default for Hero before Eleven.

Incidentally, the Hero's jump turned out quite different from the figure.
He was originally planned as the DQ3 Hero, so I made the pose referencing Akira Toriyama's combat movement—but as the more handsome DQ11 Hero became the standard, we opted for the current animation instead. pic.twitter.com/8UaXjkU8ui

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) September 18, 2022

Even if it was obvious enough, it's nice to have confirmation.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Erdrick was the default for Hero before Eleven.

As he should have been.

 

[Diddy Kong]

This is a pretty minor thing, but unlike the others you listed, the Ice Climbers being cut didn't have to do with being low priority. They were fully intended to be brought back, but were unable to due to technical limitations brought about by the 3DS.

They're like the one previously-cut character where I don't think it's a mark against them potentially returning in case of cuts. Their situation was just wildly different from every other cut in the franchise.

Ah yeah, it was just hopeful thinking on my part then. I myself could do without Ice Climbers in Smash, always felt they're sort of a troublesome set of characters and hard to balance and program, not really worth the effort in my own personal and humble opinion. But I get you.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

So it looks like they overall made the neat decision thanks to animation factors. Nice.

Though it's clear they built a lot of the stuff around Eleven too(the stage, the Kirby Hats, most of the Spirits, even the original All-Star thing). About the only thing they changed is All-Star otherwise.

 

[fogbadge]

Erdrick was the default for Hero before Eleven.

Incidentally, the Hero's jump turned out quite different from the figure.
He was originally planned as the DQ3 Hero, so I made the pose referencing Akira Toriyama's combat movement—but as the more handsome DQ11 Hero became the standard, we opted for the current animation instead. pic.twitter.com/8UaXjkU8ui

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) September 18, 2022

Even if it was obvious enough, it's nice to have confirmation.

handsome? Time for an eye test sakurai

 

[toonito]

My thoughts on 3rd party characters getting cut for Smash 6. as always take these with a grain of salt just me speculating
: I don't see getting cut going forward
: Could happen again due to relationship between Kojima and Konami if so then I think Bomberman would be next in line
: don't see getting cut; possible swap with another Rockman (X, EXE, Volnutt, or Starforce) but not likely
: don't see getting cut as long as Namco's Smash developer; even if Smash was developed by another studio Pac-Man should be safe
: don't see getting cut going forward
: could see him not making it back if so does his "spot" go to another Capcom rep, SF rep, echo, etc.?
: I think he's the likeliest of the 3 SE reps so far to return.
: she seems to be safe unless internally she's in direct competition with Astral Chain due to them both being Platinum Games/Nintendo.
: could see him returning. I think all current 3rd parties will have at least one rep going forward unless a professional breakdown happens with Nintendo. Also doesn't seem to have the ownership issues Snake has.
: 50/50 depends on if Sakurai wants to continue branding Echo fighters.
: don't know i'm leaning on him returning.
: i feel not all three SE reps will return and yet despite DQ's popularity in Japan I feel he's the 2nd most likely to return.
: interestingly enough i have a feeling they won't make it back.
: theoretically should be safe unless they want to rotate the SNK rep (if there's only one) to Marco or Nakoruru. If SNK has more than 1 rep he's safe.
: I think he's more likely to return than Banjo
: I don't think he'll return.
: I think he'll make it back alongside Pac-Man. Then again Jin might have an outside shot of replacing him. Ever since Sakurai mentioned why Heihachi didn't make it in I wonder if Jin was considered for Ultimate since he inherited the Devil Gene.
: I could be wrong but I don't think he'll return.

 

[DarthEnderX]

handsome? Time for an eye test sakurai

I mean, Android 17 is clearly designed to be more of a pretty boy than Gohan.

 

[Opossum]

All you're doing is going by what happened with previous games which tells us nothing about a potential future game that doesn't even exist right now, so your stance on this is no different from anybody else. I can easily say Nintendo can add up to 100 characters the next game simply because the amount of work they put in Ultimate where they almost added 100 characters in that game. But in the end, one fact nobody can deny is that nobody knows, including you. That fact seems to bother you for some reason but you're just going to have to accept that for now.

I'll be honest, this part of your post is sort of baffling. To go piece by piece...

In the first sentence you're arguing against the existence of the concept of precedence. Using events that have happened and statements that have been said in order to make claims about the future is a completely normal and fully expected thing to do. Have you ever heard the phrase, "Those who don't learn from the past are doomed to repeat it" at any point in your life? "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me." "There's no shame in making a mistake, only in repeating one." Any of these at all? Pretending the past has no bearing on the future and that, instead, it's better to believe all possible outcomes have the same chance of happening is asinine.

In the second sentence, you go even further, and argue that making claims about the future based on past precedent is the exact same thing as making claims about the future using no evidence and arguing against any and all precedence, and that both of these should be given the same argumentative weight. Ultimate's base game content had to be absolutely gutted in order to get a roster size of 76 characters at launch. Trophies and Event Matches were both axed and combined into Spirits because it saved on development time and costs. Series staples like Home Run Contest and Stage Builder had to be added post-launch. Coin Battles were removed entirely and never brought back at all. Sakurai and the team stated that doing Everyone Is Here was a massive undertaking that required a lot of sacrifice, and that was before the addition of thirteen additional post-launch characters, plus the newcomers added to base Ultimate.

There is no precedent whatsoever to expect the next game to reach 100 fighters. And there's quite a bit of precedence going against it. The only way it would be even remotely feasible is with some sort of Ultimate Deluxe, but that also has more going against the idea of its existence than for it, so we're back to square one.

Defaulting to "You don't know! Anything is possible!" ignores all of the evidence pointing against outcomes you don't personally like. There's no use pretending that a more standard-sized roster with quite a few cuts is somehow just as likely as everybody coming back again with more newcomers on top of that. We have every reason to believe that Ultimate was a one time special occasion.

 

[Perkilator]

OKay, let's change subjects for a sec: if you could change some series' music selections, what songs would you pick?

 

[Wonder Smash]

I'll be honest, this part of your post is sort of baffling. To go piece by piece...

In the first sentence you're arguing against the existence of the concept of precedence. Using events that have happened and statements that have been said in order to make claims about the future is a completely normal and fully expected thing to do. Have you ever heard the phrase, "Those who don't learn from the past are doomed to repeat it" at any point in your life? "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me." "There's no shame in making a mistake, only in repeating one." Any of these at all? Pretending the past has no bearing on the future and that, instead, it's better to believe all possible outcomes have the same chance of happening is asinine.

Would make sense if there was an actual mistake being made here.

In the second sentence, you go even further, and argue that making claims about the future based on past precedent is the exact same thing as making claims about the future using no evidence and arguing against any and all precedence, and that both of these should be given the same argumentative weight. Ultimate's base game content had to be absolutely gutted in order to get a roster size of 76 characters at launch. Trophies and Event Matches were both axed and combined into Spirits because it saved on development time and costs. Series staples like Home Run Contest and Stage Builder had to be added post-launch. Coin Battles were removed entirely and never brought back at all. Sakurai and the team stated that doing Everyone Is Here was a massive undertaking that required a lot of sacrifice, and that was before the addition of thirteen additional post-launch characters, plus the newcomers added to base Ultimate.

There is no precedent whatsoever to expect the next game to reach 100 fighters. And there's quite a bit of precedence going against it. The only way it would be even remotely feasible is with some sort of Ultimate Deluxe, but that also has more going against the idea of its existence than for it, so we're back to square one.

Defaulting to "You don't know! Anything is possible!" ignores all of the evidence pointing against outcomes you don't personally like. There's no use pretending that a more standard-sized roster with quite a few cuts is somehow just as likely as everybody coming back again with more newcomers on top of that. We have every reason to believe that Ultimate was a one time special occasion.

Well you sure have failed to give whatever kind of reasons you have because in the end, all you're doing is just simply pointing out what Nintendo did in Ultimate. That's literally it. It doesn't say anything about what Nintendo will do in the next game. However, since you do want to go by what happened during previous games, you should also keep in mind that Sakurai likes to surprise people by keeping their expectations low (same ol' Sakurai; knowing what fans want but don't want them to expect it). He would never just straight up say what's going to happen next but at the same time, he would also not straight up deny what COULD happen in next either. That even involves the characters. And with this game being so far off, it's pretty obvious that nobody knows and anything is possible. That's the cold hard truth that can't be denied. So I have every reason to say that.

 

[CannonStreak]

Would make sense if there was an actual mistake being made here.



Well you sure have failed to give whatever kind of reasons you have because in the end, all you're doing is just simply pointing out what Nintendo did in Ultimate. That's literally it. It doesn't say anything about what Nintendo will do in the next game. However, since you do want to go by what happened during previous games or quotes by Sakurai, you should also keep in mind that he also likes to surprise people by keeping their expectations low. He would never just straight up say what's going to happen next but at the same time, he would also not straight up deny what COULD happen in next either. That even involves the characters. And with this game being so far off, it's pretty obvious that nobody knows and anything is possible. That's the cold hard truth that can't be denied.

Um, you might want to refrain from saying anything is possible.

Or at least back it up, maybe heavily. Just saying that alone won't be good enough...

...If it is good at all.

 

[Wonder Smash]

Um, you might want to refrain from saying anything is possible.

Or at least back it up, maybe heavily. Just saying that alone won't be good enough...

...If it is good at all.

Or maybe I might not want to.

 

[osby]

Can we all just agree that "anything is possible" and "anything is plausible" are two very different things and just because the former is true, doesn't mean the latter also is?

Otherwise, this discussion is literally going nowhere.

 

[Sucumbio]

I suppose, strictly speaking, there's not a zero percent chance the next Smash could have a roster size to rival Ultimate.

 

[Wonder Smash]

Can we all just agree that "anything is possible" and "anything is plausible" are two very different things and just because the former is true, doesn't mean the latter is also is?

Otherwise, this discussion is literally going nowhere.

I don't mind that.

I think some people are just taking this too seriously. We can get to that other stuff at least when the next console is revealed but in the meantime, being at least open to the possibility that all the characters can come back shouldn't rub people the wrong way. That's kind of weird.

 

[chocolatejr9]

go on

I posted it way back on the old DLC Speculation thread (talk about a time capsule), but here's a link to it:

Official - DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

The results of the latest poll by INSIDE (gaming news site) just came out. https://www.inside-games.jp/article/2021/07/26/133601.html Q. What is the character you want for the very last DLC of Smash Ultimate? 1. Sora - 377 votes 2. Bandana Waddle Dee - 174 votes 3. 2B - 157 votes 4. Reimu...

smashboards.com

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

You know is funny, I didn't quite realize just how big and unusually ambitious Smash Ultimate's cast really was until read the news about the line-up to SFVI. If the next major entry in the most famous traditional fighting game franchise of all time, from the biggest fighting game developer... has a launch roster of 18, it puts into perspective precisely what SSBU must have entailed to come out as deep as it did.

 

[SPEN18]

I suppose, strictly speaking, there's not a zero percent chance the next Smash could have a roster size to rival Ultimate.

Yeah if they get to like 70 characters then I think that's enough for the roster size to "rival" Ult's, or at least be considered "in the ballpark."

We already have precedent for a 50-character roster at base with Smash 4, and two console generations later it'd be reasonable to expect them to be able to top at least that. I don't know if it'll actually get there, but 55-60 doesn't seem impossible. If they go as far as they did this time with DLC, or maybe even extend to a third round (don't get your hopes up too much, though), the roster could hit 70. I'd call that a win in terms of raw size.

 

[fogbadge]

I mean, Android 17 is clearly designed to be more of a pretty boy than Gohan.

that guy was supposed to be pretty?

I posted it way back on the old DLC Speculation thread (talk about a time capsule), but here's a link to it:

Official - DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

The results of the latest poll by INSIDE (gaming news site) just came out. https://www.inside-games.jp/article/2021/07/26/133601.html Q. What is the character you want for the very last DLC of Smash Ultimate? 1. Sora - 377 votes 2. Bandana Waddle Dee - 174 votes 3. 2B - 157 votes 4. Reimu...

smashboards.com

curious ideas

 

[TCT~Phantom]

People keep bringing up Trophies getting cut as a sign of Everyone is Here being a strain on things, but honestly I think that is very misdirected. Honestly I think trophies going is a good call in terms of resources in the future.

Localization is rough at the day, and trophies exasperated that. Let’s take a look at Smash 4. Both games had close to 700 trophies: even taking into account overlaps that is easily over 1000 extra things to translate in a game that does not have much localization needed at the end of the day. Even if Ultimate had only 1000 trophies, that is still a lot of stuff to translate and fact check.

If we go beyond localization, trophies still are a pretty big development strain. You have to in the easier scenario import a model and pose it, which is far more work than what importing a Spirit would entail. But a lot of trophies do use custom assets, which takes up more development time.

Did Ultimate’s development have to make some concessions? Sure, but honestly leaving trophies behind seems like one for the best. Sakurai himself even highlighted trophies as super development intensive in the 11/1 Smash Direct, so I would take him on his word at least. I do think in some ways people overblow how much EiH impacted Ultimate. I will say Trophies still would be an issue that could easily have gotten the axe if they didn’t do EiH. It’s an issue for a global launch that makes localization harder and more expensive. Trophies themselves are a resource drain that has little impact on Smash itself. They exist solely as a collectible that has some charming information on a character or thing. You are putting a ton of resources into something that just will not affect the supermajority of consumers in the way something gameplay related would.

 

[Among Waddle Dees]

I do think in some ways people overblow how much EiH impacted Ultimate.

If I may be bold, I don't really buy that impact theory. Obviously EiH had some of the main priority, but I would argue a lot of the work was already done in the previous game. Although characters like Pichu and Young Link got some overhauls, they were also given attributes gained by their source material in future titles. Off the top of my head, only four characters were given true rehauled adaptations, being Squirtle, Ivysaur, Ice Climbers, and Snake. Wolf coming fairly close.

No, I believe the true culprit has more to do with an internal motive to get a Smash game onto the Switch as quickly as possible. There's a lot of evidence that they took most of the source material from Smash 4. And perhaps for this reason, there was never an intent to focus on the minor details trophies brought to the table.

 

[Sucumbio]

I think it's gotta be a bit of that plus the total package being delivered with Spirits being key.

 

[Dinoman96]

I'd say EiH definitely affected the newcomer lineup a bit. Only six non-echo newcomers, and even one of those is just a semi-clone.

 

[Arcanir]

I don't think it's really arguable to say EiH didn't have an impact when new content was pretty strained relative to its predecessors. Along with the example of us having the lowest amount of actual newcomers we also only saw four actual new stages, the number of modes being cut down or put off, and even the first player mode making heavy reuse of already made assets like Spirits. Compared to something like Brawl, which had 18 newcomers, over 20 stages, and modes like SSE, it's clear that the amount of old content they brought back did restrict what new things they could do.

Granted, some of the shortcuts may be for the best in the long run such as trophies, but they are still shortcuts made to accommodate the large scope the game had nonetheless. We do have to appreciate that for all of the legacy content we got and love, we had to trade what potential new content that had to be pushed aside for it all to happen.

 

[HyperSomari64]

If Bandai Namco or the Nintendo's ad-hoc couldn't help in the development of the upcoming Smash, what company should co-develop the game?
SEGA seems like the most chill one, but my heart says Idea Factory.

 

[Idon]

If Bandai Namco or the Nintendo's ad-hoc couldn't help in the development of the upcoming Smash, what company should co-develop the game?
SEGA seems like the most chill one, but my heart says Idea Factory.

Definitely Capcom. They've got a fighting game division more storied than anyone else, a close relationship with Nintendo, and also an art team that fully understands the appeal of ensemble casts.

 

[fogbadge]

here's a question: does anyone know how space on the cartridge ultimate takes up?

 

[TCT~Phantom]

The NieR TGS panel is funny. They keep talking about Astral Chain and even got permission from Nintendo to show it. Apparently Astral Chain helped convince Square to put NieR on Switch. Shows how important more niche games can be to a platform holder. It's not just about sales.

— Zalman (@enterzalman) September 19, 2022

So Astral Chain was a big reason that Nier got ported to the switch.

Can we talk about Astral Chain in smash now?

 

[Wonder Smash]

I say if Joker doesn't come back, I wouldn't mind if a SMT character takes his place.

The NieR TGS panel is funny. They keep talking about Astral Chain and even got permission from Nintendo to show it. Apparently Astral Chain helped convince Square to put NieR on Switch. Shows how important more niche games can be to a platform holder. It's not just about sales.

— Zalman (@enterzalman) September 19, 2022

So Astral Chain was a big reason that Nier got ported to the switch.

Can we talk about Astral Chain in smash now?

Nintendo should definitely consider that.

 

[Opossum]

I mean it really doesn't need to be one or the other.

 

[fogbadge]

I say if Joker doesn't come back, I wouldn't mind if a SMT character takes his place.

or tails

 

[Wonder Smash]

I mean it really doesn't need to be one or the other.

It doesn't mean that it can't.

But for Smash, I always prefered a SMT character over a Persona character anyway.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Replacing Joker with a SMT rep is just ridiculous. Persona 5 is one of if not the biggest JRPG of the past decade. SMTV was the best selling game in its series: Persona 5 sold five times as much and it hasn’t even gotten its ports yet. Joker also is already in smash, which makes it much easier to just keep joker rather than license, design, and animate a completely new character. You can prefer we got a SMT rep over persona. Heck, we could get one in the next smash. But outright replacing Joker with a SMT rep is ludicrous, especially with how Persona outgrew SMT.

———————————————
Anywho, back to Astral Chain. Honestly, I think Nintendo and Sakurai for first parties are going to look heavily at the switch era for their picks. When looking at that, I’d say Officer Howard has to be on the shortlist. Astral Chain did well, selling over a million units as for March 2020. Nintendo even bought the full rights for the IP from Platinum, which to me screams they are confident in it going forward. I would be very surprised if it didn’t make the cut in the next Smash.

 

[osby]

I say if Joker doesn't come back, I wouldn't mind if a SMT character takes his place.

The premise of replacing a third-party character with another is ridiculous. Not only this change hardly maintains any fans (since Persona and SMT aim for pretty different audiences at this point), but it'll also guarantee to turn fans against that newcomer. It's doubly so because Persona is significantly more popular and successful between the two but it's a flawed idea, to begin with.

Also, SMT fans try not to create unnecessary drama between two series challenge (impossible difficulty)