Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Hydreigonfan01]

Broke: Alear for Smash 6
Woke: Swimsuit Noah for Smash 6

 

[Diddy Kong]

Broke: Alear for Smash 6
Woke: Swimsuit Noah for Smash 6

Am quite confident in both. To not at least think of them as serious prospects for newcomers at this point and with these patterns last two Smash games, is quite naïve.

 

[CapitaineCrash]

Just for fun since this is a common topic I wanted to make a small analysis of each third party and who I think is the most likely to stay and who is the most likely to be cut. Keep in mind that obviously things can change very fast and I can't predict the future so in a few years or even months it might not be accurate anymore (The post end up longer than what I was expecting so if you just want a summary there's a "tier list" at the end).

-Snake: Snake is weird because despite coming from a very important franchise, is series is now over. This means that the only way Metal gear can stay relevant is through ports or remakes, or with spin off (hopefully if this happens they're better than MGS survive...). The fact that Snake was already cut in the past (Smash 4) tell me that he might not be as important as we think. I honestly think that Snake's chances are overall fairly low to come back.

-Sonic: I think Sonic is the safest to come back. He is and will still be relevant and assuming that the Mario & Sonic olympic games continue, he will already have a good connection with Nintendo. There's really no reason to cut him.

-Mega man: He's not as relevant as Sonic, but he's still getting games and recognition quite often. Capcom seems to be very easy to work with for crossover so I think Mega man is fairly safe.

-Pac-Man: Pretty much the same situation as Mega man. If Namco is back for the development I feel like Pac Man is pretty much a lock, but even without Namco as a developper I think Pac-Man is very safe.

-Ryu: Same as Mega man, although he's less associated with Nintendo working with Capcom seems so easy that I don't see why he would be cut.

-Ken: Echo fighters are more a unique situation. I think Ken will highly depends on the development time and the budget the team have. If they have time for clones he will most likely come back. That being said he could be cut to make room for another more unique characters like Chun-Li assuming they have a spot for more unique characters.

-Cloud: Assuming that Square is still open to do crossover I think Cloud could come back actually pretty easily. Assuming the next Smash development starts in a few years, it could start near the release or a bit before the final part of the FF7 remake trilogy. Cloud would still be very relevant.

-Sephiroth: Same situation as Cloud, although since he's the secondary character is chances are a bit less likely than Cloud.

-Bayonetta: Probably the safest pick alongside Sonic, with Bayo 3 coming soon they might even change her design based on this game and add a bit more content like music and stage.

-Simon: Imo it feels more likely than Snake, although with Konami doing pretty much nothing aside from Yugioh game the franchise might be even less relevant than it already is which could hurt his chances.

-Richter: Same situation as Ken, although Richter is significantly less popular even in his own franchise than Ken so if they don't have much time for echo he would get cut more easily.

-Joker: Joker is also a weird case because right now he seems obvious with how Persona 5 is popular, but it might be not as relevant in a few years. Hipothetically he could get replace by the Persona 6 protagonist if this came out before the next Smash, or maybe by the SMT V protagonist.

-Hero: Hero seems fairly safe too as long as Square is still open for it. DQ is going very strong in the next few years. If DQ 11 is not too relevant they could replace the base skin either by the DQ 12 hero, or change the order of the skins so the base character is the DQ 3 hero.

-Banjo: Another weird case because while he is still very popular, he's by far the least relevant of the third party characters and I highly doubt that he's getting another game anytime soon. He could still come back if Nintendo saw how popular he was, but I feel like he could get cut to put room for a more relevant western third party, such as Doom guy who is also from Microsoft.

-Terry: With how easy it seems to be to work with SNK I feel like Terry could come back easily if they want to. But to be fair he's not that popular compare to the other third party so I could see them putting more priority into Ryu and Kazuya than him.

-Steve: As long as Mojang is open I think they will try to keep Steve, Minecraft is just way too big too be ignored.

-Kazuya: Like Pac-Man I think he's safer if Namco stays as a developper. But even without Namco with how popular Tekken is I think he could stay.

-Sora: Working again with Disney might be really hard, but considering his popularity and how KH is still going strong, I think they will at least try to keep Sora.

So if I had to do like a tier list it would look like this:
A tier (The most likely): Sonic, Mega man, Ryu, Pac-Man, Bayonetta
B tier (Seems fairly likely): Cloud, Hero, Ken, Steve
C tier (Could happen but probably lower priority or hard to get in the case of Sora): Sephiroth, Kazuya, Sora, Simon, Joker
D tier (Don't really think they will stay especially if the roster is significantly smaller): Richter, Terry, Banjo, Snake

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Honestly I think Snake, Richter, and Simon are only gone if Sakurai and/or Nintendo don't want them. Konami is perfectly happy putting their franchise characters in crossover releases (Simon and Alucard just got announced for Brawlhalla) so its hard to imagine them not wanting such characters in the next game unless they wanted other Metal Gear or Castlevania figures in their place.

 

[Dinoman96]

Honestly I think Snake, Richter, and Simon are only gone if Sakurai and/or Nintendo don't want them. Konami is perfectly happy putting their franchise characters in crossover releases (Simon and Alucard just got announced for Brawlhala) so its hard to imagine them not wanting such characters in the next game unless they wanted other Metal Gear or Castlevania figures in their place.

That's how I feel about practically every third party character lol, there probably isn't a single company that'd say "no" to their character being in Smash.

The real issue will probably just be a matter of time and priority on Sakurai's and Nintendo's part.

 

[fogbadge]

Maybe it’s the nostalgia talking but I think B&K might be immune to the relevance thing

 

[Dinoman96]

Maybe it’s the nostalgia talking but I think B&K might be immune to the relevance thing

Nintendo's been pretty much going all in on Banjo and Rare nostalgia lately, the most recent example of course being GoldenEye on NSO. Hardly any chance they'd cut out one of the most highly requested characters like that.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I think that honestly if a third party gets cut, it will be if the whole company is not playing ball anymore. If we are getting Sonic back, odds are Bayo and Joker would be negotiated at the same time. I genuinely doubt unless we thanos snap the roster, the vast majority of our third parties are safe. You could say maybe Sakurai or Nintendo would be opposed to bringing as many third parties back, but given their track record as time has gone on and statements made by Sakurai I find that is pretty improbable. Sakurai sees smash as this celebration of gaming, so I doubt he would kneecap that deliberately outside of the hardest of hard reboots. Nintendo were the ones who suggested the DLC characters we got, so I do not think they will about face and just decide to nuke third parties either.

The only other reason for cuts I’d be concerned about tbh, outside of relationships going to hell which I doubt will happen, is a buyout. Sure, if Sony buys Konami I doubt the Belmonts and Snake will be back. But speculation on potential buyouts or corporate politics going awry would be flying blind.

 

[Chuderz]

uh huh. that makes no sense

It makes plenty of sense if you can walk and chew gum at the same time. It's called having 2 ideas in your head at once. Give it a go. It's great. I can hate the way they conduct their business while still appreciating the creativity of products that come from it.

 

[SPEN18]

Ult has a very large contingency of guests, and a great portion of them were added in DLC (hence weren't able to make it into a base game that even borrowed from its predecessors more heavily than usual). In that light, it seems highly unlikely that resource restrictions wouldn't also play a role alongside potential negotiation issues when it comes to retention of third parties (in the next non-port base game). It's entirely possible for us to get Sonic back but not Joker, for example.

 

[Wonder Smash]

Joker is the only character I can picture not returning. A replacement is very possible, though.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Joker is the Cloud of Persona.

He isn't being outright replaced by another Persona character.

 

[Wonder Smash]

Not sure about that. I thought Yu Narukami was more like the Cloud of Persona at first.

 

[Idon]

While Joker and Cloud are both the popular "faces" of their respective franchises, their circumstances are slightly different. Cloud's explosion of popularity across general audiences lasted throughout the dozens of games that came after while Joker is currently still in the middle of his franchise's explosive rise, with his marketing still going.

He doesn't really have the same legacy as Cloud, and unlikely as it may be, a future protagonist may leave a stronger one. Granted, Joker, just like Cloud, was many people's first protagonist, and that will endear them more to him as future protagonists will inevitably be held to his standard even if they are all silent self-inserts.

And besides, knowing Atlus it's not like there even will BE a Persona 6 by the time they make Smash 6. Joker will probably still be topical.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Honestly I think Snake, Richter, and Simon are only gone if Sakurai and/or Nintendo don't want them. Konami is perfectly happy putting their franchise characters in crossover releases (Simon and Alucard just got announced for Brawlhalla) so its hard to imagine them not wanting such characters in the next game unless they wanted other Metal Gear or Castlevania figures in their place.

Unless Nintendo is like "Oh, you think you can also sell your characters to a competing Smash clone? That's it! You're out!"

 

[fogbadge]

It makes plenty of sense if you can walk and chew gum at the same time. It's called having 2 ideas in your head at once. Give it a go. It's great. I can hate the way they conduct their business while still appreciating the creativity of products that come from it.

you never said anything about their business practices you just said you hated disney. so to anyone who doesn't live inside your head it's gonna sound like you hate everything from mickey to mirabel. and therefore playing a game series where those things are central to their identity isn't going to make any sense. it'd be like me playing a game all about daisy. so don't bring in that condescending talk for not knowing everything about you

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Speaking of both JRPG characters and Konami...

Not at all surprising given the company focusing largely on the Japanese market and knowing such games will do good numbers on the Switch alone, but no doubt a very pleasant surprise for fans. Don't know what it means for Smash, though a Mii costume down is certainly a possibility.

 

[JOJONumber691]

Joker is the Cloud of Persona.

He isn't being outright replaced by another Persona character.

That role belongs to Yu Narukami of Persona 4. Sorry. Guess that’s more evidence that Yu should’ve gotten in over Joker. Oh well.

 

[Nabbitfan730]

Has Anyone check this out.

The Mega Smash Poll Results?

Today, it's finally time to start revealing some results...#MegaSmashPollUlt #SuperSmashBros https://t.co/ntGEL9TNbi

— Source Gaming (@AllSourceGaming) September 16, 2022

 

[TCT~Phantom]

That role belongs to Yu Narukami of Persona 4. Sorry. Guess that’s more evidence that Yu should’ve gotten in over Joker. Oh well.

That view is so outdated at best and wrong at worst.

Persona 5 culturally has eclipsed Persona 4 even in spite of its long record of being the newest Persona game. Persona 5 is probably the biggest JRPG of the past decade. The 2010s were notas kind to JRPGs as the aughts and 90s were. Outside of RPG juggernauts that reached outside of their niche like Final Fantasy and Kingdom Hearts, there were very few breakout JRPGs. Xenoblade got adopted by Nintendo, but outside of that in terms of the real breakout hits Persona 5 and Nier Automata are pretty much where that list ends. Persona 5 sold over twice as much as Persona 4 did in almost half as much time. And this is before the ports for both coming soon. It’s no secret that Persona 5 getting a port was quite coveted, and now it is coming to Switch, Xbox, and PC.

If anything, Yu would probably be more comparable to a Terra or Cecil than a Cloud. FF7 was the breakout success that dwarfed it’s predecessors and defined JRPGs for ages. It was the JRPG that everything was compared to. It crossed demographics and several people that did not touch the more niche standard JRPGs like Xenogears or Persona flocked to it. Persona 5 is not FF7: I doubt any jrpg will ever be able to reach that genre defining peak for a long time. But it certainly lines up far better with that than Persona 4 does.

 

[JOJONumber691]

That view is so outdated at best and wrong at worst.

Persona 5 culturally has eclipsed Persona 4 even in spite of its long record of being the newest Persona game. Persona 5 is probably the biggest JRPG of the past decade. The 2010s were notas kind to JRPGs as the aughts and 90s were. Outside of RPG juggernauts that reached outside of their niche like Final Fantasy and Kingdom Hearts, there were very few breakout JRPGs. Xenoblade got adopted by Nintendo, but outside of that in terms of the real breakout hits Persona 5 and Nier Automata are pretty much where that list ends. Persona 5 sold over twice as much as Persona 4 did in almost half as much time. And this is before the ports for both coming soon. It’s no secret that Persona 5 getting a port was quite coveted, and now it is coming to Switch, Xbox, and PC.

If anything, Yu would probably be more comparable to a Terra or Cecil than a Cloud. FF7 was the breakout success that dwarfed it’s predecessors and defined JRPGs for ages. It was the JRPG that everything was compared to. It crossed demographics and several people that did not touch the more niche standard JRPGs like Xenogears or Persona flocked to it. Persona 5 is not FF7: I doubt any jrpg will ever be able to reach that genre defining peak for a long time. But it certainly lines up far better with that than Persona 4 does.

My low opinion on Joker still stands, even if you’ve shown me I’m objectively wrong.

 

[Ivander]

Speaking of both JRPG characters and Konami...

Not at all surprising given the company focusing largely on the Japanese market and knowing such games will do good numbers on the Switch alone, but no doubt a very pleasant surprise for fans. Don't know what it means for Smash, though a Mii costume down is certainly a possibility.

All of the memories are flooding back in.

Also, that spoiler in the trailer.

 

[osby]

And besides, knowing Atlus it's not like there even will BE a Persona 6 by the time they make Smash 6. Joker will probably still be topical.

I know this is a joke but ATLUS usually only takes long for releasing new mainline Persona entries when they need to jump a console. Persona 2 duology and Persona 4 followed their predecessors pretty quickly.

Persona 5 was initially developed for PS3 and now they now have to consider all modern platforms, which is probably why there's no sign of a sequel for now. I still expect us to get at least a teaser in three weeks.

 

[Diddy Kong]

Has Anyone check this out.

The Mega Smash Poll Results?

Today, it's finally time to start revealing some results...#MegaSmashPollUlt #SuperSmashBros https://t.co/ntGEL9TNbi

— Source Gaming (@AllSourceGaming) September 16, 2022

Can't check it out now, can someone give me like a top 5 or 10?

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Can't check it out now, can someone give me like a top 5 or 10?

There is no hard data on characters yet, just some info on series. There are a few series without characters that did well though, namely Ace Attorney, Halo, Crash Bandicoot, and Rayman. So I’d assume Phoenix Wright, Crash, Rayman, and Master Chief did well enough.

 

[Nabbitfan730]

Can't check it out now, can someone give me like a top 5 or 10?

• Total number of participants: 2016
• Ran from March 2022 – June 2022

Rest is on the site

Mega Smash Poll Ultimate Results! – An Introduction + Favourite Series Data

Hello to all Source Gaming readers! We’re sorry to keep you waiting but it’s finally time for the results of the Mega Smash Poll Ultimate! While we have a lot of fun and juicy details t…

sourcegaming.info

Rayman's chances just keep getting bigger and bigger

 

[JOJONumber691]

Can't check it out now, can someone give me like a top 5 or 10?

It’s not happening until 2025 lmao.

 

[Lionfranky]

Just observing people's perception has been amusing. Time changes many things, but it's still wild that characters that seemed impossible are now seen as total missed opportunity.

The best example is Master Chief imo.

Master Chief threads were locked in this site during the past. People were called trolls for suggesting Chief. Then how is it now? People say it was totally missed opportunity, even wondering why Chief didn't make in.... totally forgetting whole circumstance why he was unlikely. Some went even as far as saying Chief should've gotten in instead of Banjo.

 

[HyperSomari64]

Just observing people's perception has been amusing. Time changes many things, but it's still wild that characters that seemed impossible are now seen as total missed opportunity.

The best example is Master Chief imo.

Master Chief threads were locked in this site during the past. People were called trolls for suggesting Chief. Then how is it now? People say it was totally missed opportunity, even wondering why Chief didn't make in.... totally forgetting whole circumstance why he was unlikely. Some went even as far as saying Chief should've gotten in instead of Banjo.

The first Halo novel was released before Combat Evolved. making MC a book character.

 

[Wonder Smash]

• Total number of participants: 2016
• Ran from March 2022 – June 2022

View attachment 360904
View attachment 360902
View attachment 360903

Rest is on the site

Mega Smash Poll Ultimate Results! – An Introduction + Favourite Series Data

Hello to all Source Gaming readers! We’re sorry to keep you waiting but it’s finally time for the results of the Mega Smash Poll Ultimate! While we have a lot of fun and juicy details t…

sourcegaming.info

Rayman's chances just keep getting bigger and bigger

Hmm...I was expecting to see Ninja Gaiden on that list. It's probably not a complete list.

 

[fogbadge]

personally i'd call master chief a dodged bullet

 

[SPEN18]

Wow, Golden Sun above Halo and Crash. What a Cinderella. Kinda bonkers, really, and one of several evidences here that the Smash and Nintendo audiences differ greatly from the general gaming audience.

Also, Brawl most popular after Ult, at least on this poll. Sonic still killing it among 3Ps.

2K participants probably isn't enough to make sweeping and definitive conclusions, though.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Sakurai getting his Silver Play Button for his channel. (Text for the first tweet translates to "Quick!" on Google Translate).

早い!!!! pic.twitter.com/kzZWsRSere

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) September 11, 2022

My apologies, for BOTH his channels.

Double!!! pic.twitter.com/WaOXqgB3YH

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) September 15, 2022

 

[CureParfait]

Joker is the only character I can picture not returning. A replacement is very possible, though.

I think that depends on when the new Smash and Persona 6 comes. It also depends on if Persona 6 itself manage to beat Persona 5 in popularity.

 

[Idon]

I think that depends on when the new Smash and Persona 6 comes. It also depends on if Persona 6 itself manage to beat Persona 5 in popularity.

And even if it does, will it leave a long lasting enough legacy such that it would be deemed worth it to replace one with the other? After all, we have many characters currently in smash who are represented over their more popular widespread successors.

 

[dream1ng]

I think people are making the mistake of thinking because there is a solid argument for a character to return, they will return. There are solid arguments for every third party to return. But, despite that, time and resources being finite and the product probably not just being a direct continuation from Ultimate will almost definitely result in at least a few third-parties not returning.

Sometimes characters aren't going to return simply because the plan can't account for everyone. Just because you can provide a good argument for a character returning doesn't mean they will.

If they do rebuild the roster from more core components, they are going to have to cut a non-insubstantial amount of characters, because getting back to nearly 100 is far from feasible when starting from a more foundational level. And that's without considering the normal amount of newcomers is going to take up a healthy percent of the total fighters as well.

 

[Wonder Smash]

I think people are making the mistake of thinking because there is a solid argument for a character to return, they will return. There are solid arguments for every third party to return. But, despite that, time and resources being finite and the product probably not just being a direct continuation from Ultimate will almost definitely result in at least a few third-parties not returning.

Sometimes characters aren't going to return simply because the plan can't account for everyone. Just because you can provide a good argument for a character returning doesn't mean they will.

If they do rebuild the roster from more core components, they are going to have to cut a non-insubstantial amount of characters, because getting back to nearly 100 is far from feasible when starting from a more foundational level. And that's without considering the normal amount of newcomers is going to take up a healthy percent of the total fighters as well.

I don't think anybody ever said that a character "will" return. Characters could be cut but then again, maybe they won't. In the end, nobody really knows for sure because the game doesn't exist and it's probably pretty far off in the future. It's just all speculation. But a game like Ultimate should show that you can never really predict things with this series.

 

[dream1ng]

I don't think anybody ever said that a character "will" return. Characters could be cut but then again, maybe they won't. In the end, nobody really knows for sure because the game doesn't exist and it's probably pretty far off in the future. It's just all speculation. But a game like Ultimate should show that you can never really predict things with this series.

If you say the only character you can picture not returning is x, then it's implicit you can't see the others not returning.

But "you never know" only goes so far. I do know that without a massive increase in budget and time, a roster that doesn't just build off Ultimate can't reach the same numbers Ultimate will. Plus you need newcomers, who will further draw priority. So that necessitates cuts.

 

[Wonder Smash]

If you say the only character you can picture not returning is x, then it's implicit you can't see the others not returning.

There's a difference between saying I can picture a character not returning and saying a character is not coming back. What I can picture can change for different reasons where as you have to have concrete information to know for sure.

But "you never know" only goes so far. I do know that without a massive increase in budget and time, a roster that doesn't just build off Ultimate can't reach the same numbers Ultimate will. Plus you need newcomers, who will further draw priority. So that necessities cuts.

But that's the thing; Smash is such a significant series that it could very well have an increase in budget and time. Nintendo might be able to pull it off.

 

[dream1ng]

There's a difference between saying I can't picture a character returning and saying a character is not coming back. What I can picture can change for different reasons where as you have to have concrete information to know for sure.

And because time is linear, I'm disagreeing with your current take, not necessarily what you may be able to picture next year.

But as long as you can only picture one third-party not returning, I'm going to disagree with you.

But that's the thing; Smash is such a significant series that it could very well have an increase in budget and time. Nintendo might be able to pull it off.

Yes and maybe Nintendo will buy Capcom and Sega and Namco. But I doubt it.

Anyone can throw out hypotheticals, but reality boxes out the fantastical ones from anything but unchecked musing. Your opposing proposition is wildly unrealistic, and saying "but maybe" doesn't change that.

Maybe Nintendo will make a Smash game that takes double the time and a commensurate budget to develop as a normal one!
Godspeed on that one.