Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[osby]

Now, to possibly avert from all this, how do you guys feel about Isaac's chances of becoming playable in the next Smash game?

I'd say they're looking damn good. The Binding of Isaac is crazy popular and still ongoing after- oh, you mean Isaac from the Golden Sun.

 

[Sucumbio]

"Fuzzy feelings don't move units."

"People who are fans of the Ninja Gaiden ninja would be buying the next Smash anyway not specifically because he's in it."

... were some of the chirps among my circle that's led to some rather heated exchanges this past week lol. I'm like I'm not even getting into it. But then this Geno talk crops up and I'm like woah coincidence? Weird.

 

[CannonStreak]

"Fuzzy feelings don't move units."

"People who are fans of the Ninja Gaiden ninja would be buying the next Smash anyway not specifically because he's in it."

... were some of the chirps among my circle that's led to some rather heated exchanges this past week lol. I'm like I'm not even getting into it. But then this Geno talk crops up and I'm like woah coincidence? Weird.

I was just making some observations and stating opinions. I did not want to cause arguments with them even.

 

[DemifiendEnjoyer]

Isaac missed his chance at this point probably

 

[fogbadge]

Now, to possibly avert from all this, how do you guys feel about Isaac's chances of becoming playable in the next Smash game?

not happening unless we get a remake and or 4th game and even then not great

 

[DemifiendEnjoyer]

Ultimates DLC, had a bunch of characters that they knew would not get a second chance to join after Ultimate, MinMin, Byleth, Joker, Pyra and Mythra
Isaac is an example of a character that actually just missed the one chance they had.

 

[CannonStreak]

Isaac missed his chance at this point probably

Welcome to the forums! I can see what you mean.

That said, to everyone reading this, how likely are characters that are obscure characters like Wart and Syrup in terms of getting in Smash? I would like to know.

 

[Dinoman96]

Welcome to the forums! I can see what you mean.

That said, to everyone reading this, how likely are characters that are obscure characters like Wart and Syrup in terms of getting in Smash? I would like to know.

Zero.

 

[DemifiendEnjoyer]

Wart is obscure, but he represents a game that is very famous, and is still played all the time, and gets ported to the latest consoles.
So he is more relevant than Isaac honestly.

 

[CannonStreak]

Zero.

More like 0.1%-0.00001%. In my experience, not many things can be truly zero in chance.

 

[DemifiendEnjoyer]

Syrup is pretty irrelevant by now sadly, since Warioland disappeared.
There are a lot of factors that can elevate an obscure character to the point that they can be a likely addition
1. That game/series being on the latest consoles
2. Fans really wanting that character/them doing well on the Smash Ballot
3. The Character represents something important to Nintendo history, or video game history, or represents a game or series that is
And thats how we got K.Rool

 

[Dinoman96]

Fan demand is basically the one big thing that can move the needle for an "irrelevant" character, outside of Sakurai wanting to include one weird surprise character every game like R.O.B or Duck Hunt.. That's how we got K. Rool and Banjo-Kazooie.

 

[DemifiendEnjoyer]

Fan demand is basically the one big thing that can move the needle for an "irrelevant" character, outside of Sakurai wanting to include one weird surprise character every game like R.O.B or Duck Hunt.. That's how we got K. Rool and Banjo-Kazooie.

Yeah, but even that is not enough for most characters, Banjo-Kazooie and K.Rool had more going for them than just being fan favorites.

 

[CannonStreak]

Fan demand is basically the one big thing that can move the needle for an "irrelevant" character, outside of Sakurai wanting to include one weird surprise character every game like R.O.B or Duck Hunt.. That's how we got K. Rool and Banjo-Kazooie.

Sadly, I don't see fan demand happening for Syrup and Wart anytime soon. As well as you know who, the one whose name starts with G.

I would say there should be another ballot, but that would only go so far in getting characters wanted in. Besides, it seems not everyone is in favor of it.

 

[DemifiendEnjoyer]

Sadly, I don't see fan demand happening for Syrup and Wart anytime soon. As well as you know who, the one whose name starts with G.

I would say there should be another ballot, but that would only go so far in getting characters wanted in. Besides, it seems not everyone is in favor of it.

Geno is never getting in,

 

[DemifiendEnjoyer]

also I did a poll of my own at one point and the winner was Tails

 

[Dinoman96]

Yeah, but even that is not enough for most characters, Banjo-Kazooie and K.Rool had more going for them than just being fan favorites.

Well it's been officially stated fan demand on the ballot is what got them to playable status.

As mentioned before, the other 'fan favorite' types that didn't make it like Isaac clearly still weren't popular enough to be prioritized for such a pitifully small newcomer lineup. Things could have been different for him and others had either A.) there was even more push/pull from fans or B.) alternatively, there was just more room for unique newcomers in the base game.

In regards to Geno, I legitimately don't think he was actually that popular on the ballot and also has the extra problem of being owned by Square Enix. It's just telling to me that Banjo & Kazooie were the first ever MS owned characters in Smash, whereas Geno was passed over three different times for other SE characters. I do think if he had gotten K. Rool/Banjo/Sora level of votes, they'd probably at least tried to make him playable.

 

[DemifiendEnjoyer]

Well it's been officially stated fan demand on the ballot is what got them to playable status.

As mentioned before, the other 'fan favorite' types that didn't make it like Isaac clearly still weren't popular enough to be prioritized for such a pitifully small newcomer lineup. Things could have been different for him and others had either A.) there was even more push/pull from fans or B.) alternatively, there was just more room for unique newcomers in the base game.

In regards to Geno, I legitimately don't think he was actually that popular on the ballot and also has the extra problem of being owned by Square Enix. I do think if he had gotten K. Rool/Banjo/Sora level of votes, they'd probably at least tried to make him playable.

Geno and Isaac probably would not have had a chance unless
A. There was an absolutely massive level of fan requests, like double the amount Sora got
B. They suddenly just became relevant again

 

[fogbadge]

Yeah, but even that is not enough for most characters, Banjo-Kazooie and K.Rool had more going for them than just being fan favorites.

well the fan support thing was all that sakurai cited in their inclusion and let’s face it being important to Nintendos history no longer helps now that the series is a celebration of gaming

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

One of Geno's biggest issues is his own competition from Square Enix, which is huge even discounting the four (Cloud, Sephiroth, Sora, Hero) that got into Smash.

Heck I'm a huge supporter and I'd have to think a good long while if I was offered a choice of him or Terra in the next game.

 

[CannonStreak]

Geno is never getting in,

Well, I would not say that such a character, or any character has a zero percent chance. Not raining on your parade though, for the character I was talking about most definitely, after Brawl and Smash 4, a high chance of NOT appearing in a Smash game, at all.

Still, even with the factors against such a character, I think that logic or not, we should not use that to put down those who want any character to be in Smash. Sure, it may be a wasted effort, but the same could be said for many characters. Plus, it is their choice. For the character I was talking about, to be clear; I am not one of those people who want him in so much, so I am in no hurry to see him in. I just don't like it when others are put down for wanting such a character. Even though I am sure no one is doing that here, it hurts not to remind others, right?

 

[Dinoman96]

Sadly, I don't see fan demand happening for Syrup and Wart anytime soon. As well as you know who, the one whose name starts with G.

I would say there should be another ballot, but that would only go so far in getting characters wanted in. Besides, it seems not everyone is in favor of it.

I am pretty certain a modern Smash ballot would just wound up being a big third party fest: Crash, Dante, Master Chief, Doomguy, etc

Waluigi would also prolly rank high because of the memes™

 

[CannonStreak]

I am pretty certain a modern Smash ballot would just wound up being a big third party fest: Crash, Dante, Master Chief, Doomguy, etc

Waluigi would also prolly rank high because of the memes™

Not that it is a bad thing, but I don't see a lot of Nintendo characters left compared to third party ones anyways. I think you do have a point.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I am pretty certain a modern Smash ballot would just wound up being a big third party fest: Crash, Dante, Master Chief, Doomguy, etc

Waluigi would also prolly rank high because of the memes™

That does have me thinking it would be interesting if there was a Smash Ballot that specifically had two sections; one for first party and one for third party.

 

[DemifiendEnjoyer]

I can post the results from my own ballot, that could help give an idea

 

[JOJONumber691]

One more thing I want to say about Geno, if that is okay.

Regardless of what Geno may have against him, based on what characters got in despite being thought impossible, and even if those characters are different from Geno, I do not think using logic to determine if a character will get in or not or their chances of getting in is entirely accurate since we have had surprises in the past. Also, not saying anyone does this or did this, but I don't think using that logic to put down Geno or their fans is fair, especially their fans.

I am mixed on Geno here. That said, I also want to say that there is an important thing to consider here: Inertia. Inertia is the tendency to keep going, in this case with thoughts, until something acts to change that, and like the physical law of inertia, two or more things don't necessarily change together and one of them stays the same where they are when something tries to change both of them. Now, even if Sakurai did want Geno in Brawl, added him as a Mii Costume in Smash 4, and since then maybe decided not to include him as a playable for reasons, the fans did not change their mind with Sakurai at that point, and continued wishing for Geno. It would be difficult to change so many minds who still want Geno at once, even if Sakurai reconsidered. Not saying this as an excuse for Geno to get in, just saying. Just wanted to point something out.

Now, to possibly avert from all this, how do you guys feel about Isaac's chances of becoming playable in the next Smash game?

I think if things go well and they continue to pull from the Ballot, then I feel like Isaac will happen. Now the chances of them pulling from the Ballot again after getting the four winners is unlikely so rip Isaac.

 

[CannonStreak]

I can post the results from my own ballot, that could help give an idea

I am not sure on that. Fan ballots are more obscure than what the Smash Ballot would be. Not to many would have seen, let alone voted on them like in the more official Smash Ballot. Just saying.

 

[HyperSomari64]

I've seen various movesets of Dragon Ball's Son Goku. Different with each other.

But the movesets for Shrek are almost non-existent.

 

[Dinoman96]

I've seen various movesets of Dragon Ball's Son Goku. Different with each other.

But the movesets for Shrek are almost nonexistent.

I got you fam

 

[CannonStreak]

I think if things go well and they continue to pull from the Ballot, then I feel like Isaac will happen. Now the chances of them pulling from the Ballot again after getting the four winners is unlikely so rip Isaac.

Or they could give Isaac a new Golden Sun game, that could help.

 

[DemifiendEnjoyer]

I am not sure on that. Fan ballots are more obscure than what the Smash Ballot would be. Not to many would have seen, let alone voted on them like in the more official Smash Ballot. Just saying.

Im gonna share somethings anyways though
Characters that recieved only 1 vote
32 were third party
11 were first party
1 was a real person who is also kind of a videogame character
1 was 4th party

Characters that recieved 2-4 votes
6 were 3rd party
1 was 1st party

Characters that recieved 5-7 votes
2 were 3rd party
1 was 1st party

Tails was the winner as previously mentioned

oh and I forgot, there were 3 fan characters who each got 1 vote

 

[SPEN18]

I would say Isaac's chances are actually pretty decent at this point, even without a GS revival. We know they know he is popular now based on the AT returning along with a litany of other auxiliary GS contents appearing. The exit poll data from the Ballot era, for whatever it is worth at this point, strongly favors him among outstanding first party characters, and even aside from that, basically every measure says Isaac is among the 2-3 most popular first party requests alongside perhaps Dee and Waluigi (if not the most demanded first party rep). It's fair to say that if one single less relevant rep gets in (outside of a possible NES retro and/or surprise rep spot) it would probably be Isaac. Based on my previous statement about his popularity, it's also fair to say that if we get one single "fan demand" first party rep, Isaac could very well be that rep. And other than not having a new game to promote, there are no other obvious obstacles to getting Isaac: he has no third party rights issues to handle, he has clearly evident potential for a unique and workable moveset, he's not a tertiary character in a bigger franchise with bigger fish to overshadow him, and GS itself even has favorable comps in terms of sales to other series that got onto the roster such as Xenoblade, Kid Icarus, F-Zero, and Mother. To echo what has already been said in here, I think it largely comes down to having enough spots for him, which Ult's development direction didn't favor.

--

As for getting a new GS, well, that can only help Isaac's chances if it were to somehow happen. A 1 mil+ seller on a more recent platform might even make him a slam dunk (which is funny to think about because he already has two of those on a twenty-year-old portable). Right now actually would be a pretty decent window for it: later in the console's lifecycle where more niche series might start to appear, and with Tennis/Golf already done for Switch. That actually coming to fruition is of course a very big "if" atm, though. As I said before in here, I don't really buy Emily's credibility on GS as of now, but I'll take being wrong on that one.

 

[CannonStreak]

I would say Isaac's chances are actually pretty decent at this point, even without a GS revival. We know they know he is popular now based on the AT returning along with a litany of other auxiliary GS contents appearing. The exit poll data from the Ballot era, for whatever it is worth at this point, strongly favors him among outstanding first party characters, and even aside from that, basically every measure says Isaac is among the 2-3 most popular first party requests alongside perhaps Dee and Waluigi (if not the most demanded first party rep). It's fair to say that if one single less relevant rep gets in (outside of a possible NES retro and/or surprise rep spot) it would probably be Isaac. Based on my previous statement about his popularity, it's also fair to say that if we get one single "fan demand" first party rep, Isaac could very well be that rep. And other than not having a new game to promote, there are no other obvious obstacles to getting Isaac: he has no third party rights issues to handle, he has clearly evident potential for a unique and workable moveset, he's not a tertiary character in a bigger franchise with bigger fish to overshadow him, and GS itself even has favorable comps in terms of sales to other series that got onto the roster such as Xenoblade, Kid Icarus, F-Zero, and Mother. To echo what has already been said in here, I think it largely comes down to having enough spots for him, which Ult's development direction didn't favor.

--

As for getting a new GS, well, that can only help Isaac's chances if it were to somehow happen. A 1 mil+ seller on a more recent platform might even make him a slam dunk (which is funny to think about because he already has two of those on a twenty-year-old portable). Right now actually would be a pretty decent window for it: later in the console's lifecycle where more niche series might start to appear, and with Tennis/Golf already done for Switch. That actually coming to fruition is of course a very big "if" atm, though. As I said before in here, I don't really buy Emily's credibility on GS as of now, but I'll take being wrong on that one.

What about Geno? Nah, don't answer that, I'm just kidding and messing with you!

Seriously, though, I do see your points. I remember people getting upset that he was an Assist Trophy, maybe mainly due to that one fake leak. Perhaps their voices were heard? Maybe not as much as the case of Waluigi's, but hey; anything is possible.

 

[SPEN18]

That does have me thinking it would be interesting if there was a Smash Ballot that specifically had two sections; one for first party and one for third party.

I would be generally in favor of that, with a caveat. If everyone knew the difference between 1P and 3P reps, then I'd be full speed ahead on splitting the ballot along those lines. But I think a lot of casual voters are simply not going to know the difference. Like, we'd probably end up with a bunch of votes for Sonic characters on the 1P ballot, right? Maybe that effect would be minor enough for it to still be worth the split, idk.

 

[fogbadge]

but I don't see a lot of Nintendo characters left compared to third party ones

you think there aren't going to be many more nintendo characters in a nintendo game?

 

[dream1ng]

How is it useless? Not like I was trying to argue anyway, I was just saying.



I believe I did not say they did. Still, I think Geno's problems are being overstated or exaggerated.



Look, I am not in a hurry to see Geno, and I do think he is less likely now compared to Brawl's time. Still, I would not saying that out-prioritized makes it so that a character would not get in. Less likely to get in? Maybe, but I can imagine other characters not as important like Geno still getting in from Square Enix.



As little as this may mean, I did say that Super Mario RPG was technically a collaboration between a first party and third party company. Geno is still not the most important character, yes, but that doesn't mean he is the least important in the story either. Regardless, I do think the collaboration between first and third party companies, even if it is not as much as characters like Syrup or Wart, may have at least some merit.



They are, as in they are equally possible. Some are just more likely as others, but I think the reason Geno's chances of getting in are slimmer, possibly compared to anyone else, is a bit, not completely, but a bit exaggerated.



I am pretty sure I am not. I am pretty sure that was not the point I was trying to focus on, anyway.



And yet expectations can still be wrong in the end.



How is that even supposed to mean anything? Say what you will on this, but even that could change.



No, I am just saying people are not being fair to him. That is all. There is using logic to determine if a character can get in, and there is using that logic to try and put down a character's chances of being playable and the fans who want them in the game. Factor wise, I would say Tamagon is nothing like Geno, nor does he have an equal chance as Geno.



I am just trying to say that I think Geno's chances are being downplayed and exaggerated in a negative way, as well as saying that for any possible other character that may just fit the bill. I am in no hurry to see Geno, but anything can happen. Saying that is a strawman or whatever makes me think you are trying to avoid that. I was just stating my opinion. I may have to back it up, but I was never trying to argue.



If that is how it appears to you, then I don't know what to tell you. I am pretty sure I meant how people interpret the factors rather than the factors themselves or them actually mattering. I know the importance of factors, but I feel like Geno's case is being treated unfairly with them as an excuse to do so.

Now if you excuse me, I have to go back to sleep.

Here's the dissonance within your posts. Proving something isn't impossible, proving it could happen, is hardly proving it's likely, and you keep saying how people are downplaying Geno's chances while your points only contend with how things aren't impossible. That doesn't address or remedy perceived unlikelihood, that just means Geno is on the table somewhere, with innumerable other options.

People are saying he has a lot against him, and you're mostly saying "but it could happen", which doesn't get to the root of their arguments or disprove what they're saying. It in no way invalidates the points that are raised against him.

You can't counter that he's from a spin-off, or an old game, or third-party, or a one-off, or not the lead. We can't overlook that he doesn't seem to be a priority for Nintendo, Sakurai or Square. These are all objective facts, that don't help a character's case. And saying "but people are wrong sometimes" and "Sakurai is unpredictable" doesn't make Geno any likelier, they just restate that he's not impossible. Which no one said he was. That's the strawman you're fighting.

Saying anything is possible doesn't help any character, it just hurts the more expected ones. But it's not like "unexpected" characters number at three or four or something, there are countless.

 

[DemifiendEnjoyer]

next smash game is probably gonna come out in like 2 console generations, by then there will be plenty more to add

 

[CannonStreak]

you think there aren't going to be many more nintendo characters in a nintendo game?

I was talking about at the moment, not by the time of future games. There will be more in the future, of course.

 

[SPEN18]

I remember people getting upset that he was an Assist Trophy, maybe mainly due to that one fake leak. Perhaps their voices were heard? Maybe not as much as the case of Waluigi's, but hey; anything is possible.

The voices were heard before the AT reveal. I mean, the AT probably wouldn't have even come back if they didn't know he was so popular. The AT reaction could have helped let them know that the AT wasn't enough to satisfy the fans, but (1) I think they already know that people vote on characters for the sake of making them playable rather than simply for the sake of getting them as ATs and (2) rioting over compensatory runner-up representation is not the thing that's going to get your character in, I don't think.

 

[CannonStreak]

Here's the dissonance within your posts. Proving something isn't impossible, proving it could happen, is hardly proving it's likely, and you keep saying how people are downplaying Geno's chances while your points only contend with how things aren't impossible. That doesn't address or remedy perceived unlikelihood, that just means Geno is on the table somewhere, with innumerable other options.

People are saying he has a lot against him, and you're mostly saying "but it could happen", which doesn't get to the root of their arguments or disprove what they're saying. It in no way invalidates the points that are raised against him.

You can't counter that he's from a spin-off, or an old game, or third-party, or a one-off, or not the lead. We can't overlook that he doesn't seem to be a priority for Nintendo, Sakurai or Square. These are all objective facts, that don't help a character's case. And saying "but people are wrong sometimes" and "Sakurai is unpredictable" doesn't make Geno any likelier, they just restate that he's not impossible. Which no one said he was. That's the strawman you're fighting.

Saying anything is possible doesn't help any character, it just hurts the more expected ones. But it's not like "unexpected" characters number at three or four or something, there are countless.

I am not denying he has some, or a lot against him, but anything is up to interpretation, including those factors. But that is not important here.

I just don't think Geno should be given a zero percent chance just because of the factors against him. By the way, are you trying to put words in my mouth? I am pretty sure I never said he was likely to begin with, just saying he has some, if small, things going for him, and by small, yes, they are limited, but have a considerable size in my opinion. That does not mean Geno has a bigger chance.

Plus, I am not overlooking anything, as I wasn't using an old game, third party, etc. as a counter. In fact, I was just stating, nothing more.

I never said Geno has a big chance. Plus, how does saying anything is possible hurt the more expected ones? Sounds like an excuse to criticize any character with lower chances if you ask me. Plus, with anything being possible still being true, I doubt the more expected ones, especially if they are likely to begin with, would have their chances hurt.