Hows the view from your high horse?
while I have you have you considered these?
thinking everyone is going to play ball cause they have done before isnt logic its wishful thinking
Have I considered licensing? Yes, I have, but apart from saying "licensing difficulties" and expecting that to be sufficient reasoning, I can't actually articulate which licensing difficulties would arise that would make third-party cooperation unlikely, apart from buyout.
I can't point to any of the third-parties, apart from maybe Microsoft, and deem them as a likely culprit of licensing difficulties. I have no reason to. Do I think these companies are going to to start trying to squeeze Nintendo past the point they will pay? Not really. I think having a significant budget allocated for licensing and the third-party companies presumably actually
wanting to be in the game will keep them in play, if Nintendo still wants them involved.
Is it possible? Sure. But my contention was never it being impossible. Possibility and likelihood are very different.
You say it's wishful thinking to retain the cooperation of these companies, but the reasons they became cooperative in the first place aren't going away. Smash is in no danger of bottoming out and losing its budget, audience, clout, quality, engagement, or architect.
I think anything is possible but I’d say the strongest point of evidence in fogbadge’s favor are Sakurai’s own words not to expect something like Ultimate again. Sakurai has gone on record saying what a miracle it was pulling everything together and that it almost didn’t happen. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think that it might be difficult to repeat Ultimate again if we’re taking Sakurai’s words at face value.
I'm sure assembling a game like Ultimate is a herculean task, and in the future Nintendo might alleviate that by not including all the previous third-party characters or companies... but that doesn't mean that those companies wouldn't still be game if approached.
There are good reasons to believe Nintendo won't seek to retain every third-party character. That's not what I personally have been arguing. I just think the likely reasons to believe the third-party companies won't be cooperative is much shorter.
I think if we don't get a third-party character back, it's because Nintendo didn't go to the effort of re-acquiring them. Not because
x company took their ball and went home, not wanting to play anymore. Again, other than possibly Microsoft, and again, buyouts aside.