So, what do you think about Shantae's chances for the next smash game?
I've been pretty down on Shantae's chances, but I actually feel like giving her the benefit of the doubt today. Where does she stand right now?
I'll start with the negative stuff I usually say, which is that Shantae's games aren't all that popular or buzzworthy right now. She's had a few modest hits, but it's moreso Shantae as a character that has captured public attention (I can only imagine why). In the context of Smash, she gained a lot of momentum during Smash 4 when her ties to Nintendo were strongest and the series was garnering the most attention. Her moveset potential is rich and easy to visualize. But I'd say, inarguably, her community support, cultural presence and role in Smash speculation peaked here.
But since then, Wayforward's relationship with Nintendo has strengthened. They produce Switch exclusives and Nintendo entrusted them to remake Advance Wars. Notably, this game never made it to Japan. But there's still something to be said about this level of trust and partnership. Shantae is still, hands down, their mascot and most popular character. And her support for Smash is still visible, enough for Sakurai to acknowledge her as a popular request. How popular, it's a little hard to gauge right now. But I'm sure her ballot performance was strong, if that's still being measured into the future.
I think Shantae's position is best compared to... Banjo, believe it or not. Does Banjo get in without all the fan support, and intrinsic Nintendo history? Almost certainly not, with no disrespect to the quality or legacy of their games. Shantae falters on that second point, that Banjo and Kazooie were once treated as Nintendo characters themselves, but she has been a persisting fan favorite for years and would presumably be a very cheap get. Bozon and Wayforward have practically been throwing her at Sakurai for a decade now. This is a character who maybe trails behind on notoriety but can make it back through her persistent community reputation, and ease of access / low expense.
Do I think she makes the cut? Well no, not really. But there are certain angles where I can look at it and see a clear path. Personally I think she's a near lock to join Shovel Knight as an Assist Trophy, if they don't choose to take it any further than that.
In my opinion Undertale transcends every other indie series in likelihood and it's not even close, but I would feel comfortable enough putting Shantae somewhere around Hades as second or third place material. I don't think "indie character" is a singular role intended to be filled, so we could get more than one. Not a whole lot of overlap between these three outside of coming from more humble beginnings.