Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Considering once again that Sakurai played an early version of Three Houses for Byleth’s moveset, I wouldn’t rule out the possibility for other characters whose games came out after the project plan got drafted, assuming it’s Smash.

Byleth was DLC, decided by Nintendo, for a character that would be promoting a game people would be playing during the DLC period.


I will point out once again that Sakurai stated the following in the same interview:

-What games are popular at the time when he starts designing is important.
-If Awakening had been released 6 months later than it did (so October 2012 in Japan, which is also six months after the project proposal), we likely wouldn't have had or .

And most damningly for someone like Alear:
-There is no stipulation that states "[they] have to include the protagonist of the next Fire Emblem game"

So even if for example, Nintendo had been sitting on Engage for some time before releasing it, odds are highly against Sakurai going out of his way to include them in the draft.

For other examples, let's look at Dread, a game that had been in development hell and in many forms for at least a decade.
Wasn't publicly revealed in its final state until June 15th, 2021 which is comfortably before the project proposal.
Even so....what are the odds that Sakurai would reserve a spot for a character from it "in the off chance the final boss no one would know about until the October release would become a popular request"?
Like, you might be able to stretch for the E.M.M.I. given how it was front and center in marketing (complete with its own amiibo alongside Samus), but Raven Beak would be a much tougher sell.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

Was it ever mentioned that it’s June 2021 since that’s even before Sora?

 

[Guynamednelson]

In the Fatal Fury: City of the Wolves beta, you can see that they replaced Terry's Power Charge with a rekka move.

How would they implement that in Smash where Power Charge is his dash attack? Would it be something like the double dash attack in this video, but there's three of them? (It's hard to notice because he's always doing two in this video, but Black Shadow's dash attack isn't two shoulder tackles, it's just one that can be canceled into another)

 

[Kirby Dragons]

Even if it's not impossible, I doubt it. Because again, BOTW didn't have many opportunities to really feel repped properly in Smash Ultimate and games with this much impact don't get relegated to a style change and some spirits. Seeing Ocarina of Time, it got into Melee with 3/4 newcomers and that was a game that was also highly acclaimed - way more than just 'best selling game'. I do think that this is basically the most ideal time to get a Zelda newcomer and from the new era since it was such a phenomenon

Those 3/4 newcomers were all Triforce wielders. It's reasonable that Zelda and some version of Ganon would've gotten in regardless of OoT. Maybe Smash 6 will have Wild Zelda or Wild Ganondorf, but I'm not expecting someone like Sidon.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Was it ever mentioned that it’s June 2021 since that’s even before Sora?

To confirm, I actually found an inconsistency.
He says it was "around July of 2021", but he received the request for a new project around the time he was putting together the Mr. Sakurai Presents Kazuya video, which released late June.

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

To confirm, I actually found an inconsistency.
He says it was "around July of 2021", but he received the request for a new project around the time he was putting together the Mr. Sakurai Presents Kazuya video, which released late June.

Assuming it's a language barrier issue, it makes more sense to assume it was around the Kazuya presentation, given he specifically called out the project plan's development in relation to it, whereas saying July could've just been a mistake.

 

[Watuna4343]

Those 3/4 newcomers were all Triforce wielders. It's reasonable that Zelda and some version of Ganon would've gotten in regardless of OoT. Maybe Smash 6 will have Wild Zelda or Wild Ganondorf, but I'm not expecting someone like Sidon.

Zelda probably was coming anyway but Ganon/dorf was far from guaranteed for Melee and it shows with him being a last-minute clone. But in any case I really doubt a BotW/ToTK newcomer is less likely than reworked Zelda or reworked Ganondorf.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I'm trying to think about what was popping off in 2020/2021, and I think it's pretty much what we already consider to be highly likely stuff. That being Animal Crossing: New Horizons, Ring Fit Adventure, Monster Hunter Rise, and Slatoon 2. Also Smash and Mario Kart, but neither are getting characters specifically.

I also think Nintendo LABO, Astral Chain, and Luigi's Mansion 3 are highly likely to get something, even if not a character.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Assuming it's a language barrier issue, it makes more sense to assume it was around the Kazuya presentation, given he specifically called out the project plan's development in relation to it, whereas saying July could've just been a mistake.

I feel it's just an error on Sakurai's part since it definitely wasn't mistranslation; his slide says July and in Japanese he says "shichi-gatsu" which is July.

 

[Kirby Dragons]

But in any case I really doubt a BotW/ToTK newcomer is less likely than reworked Zelda or reworked Ganondorf.

To be clear, I was referring to getting a separate Zelda or Ganondorf as a newcomer.

 

[BritishGuy54]

I think this next project isn’t Smash. It’s just too soon after Ultimate’s DLC.

I can’t see Smash releasing this year. It would conflict heavily the possibility of Mario Kart also getting DLC, and a new 3D Mario we’re due for.

There’s a reason why we don’t get everything big all at once. Because they cannibalise each other.

The best opportunity for Smash to release is 2027, with 2026 also being a good shout.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

There's really no way of determining either way. It's either Smash with a bit longer dev time, or not smash and we'll be waiting till 2027-2028 depending on how long it takes to develop what he's currently working on.

 

[Gengar84]

I think this next project isn’t Smash. It’s just too soon after Ultimate’s DLC.

I can’t see Smash releasing this year. It would conflict heavily the possibility of Mario Kart also getting DLC, and a new 3D Mario we’re due for.

There’s a reason why we don’t get everything big all at once. Because they cannibalise each other.

The best opportunity for Smash to release is 2027, with 2026 also being a good shout.

I think the biggest reason I feel it is Smash is that Smash has released within the first two years of a console’s life for every game besides Smash 64. If it isn’t Smash, we’re likely not seeing it until at least 2030 assuming they start development this year. I feel like that’s way too late into the Switch 2’s life.

The only confirmed Switch 2 game I’m aware of is Mario Kart 9 so the year isn’t really bloated yet. Plus, there’s a good chance it doesn’t release until next year even if they reveal its existence in April.

 

[Kirby Dragons]

I watched all of this video (more specifically, I had it on in the background) that discusses characters' likelihoods. And he ranked them all.

Spoiler: Tier List

He had some solid takes but also weird ones.

For starters, I don't agree all those characters are more likely than Bandana Waddle Dee. He says it's cause of Sakurai bias, but even if Sakurai still is the developer, Dee should be higher for his popularity and relevance. He also claims you can't do much with a spear, which.....just feels wrong.

Raven Beak depends on timing, but might not be picked even if the timing is good for him. Certainly not a guarantee like he claims. Rauru should also be lower. Krystal has some popularity but not as much as other requests, and with Star Fox not having recent games, I don't see her as likely. And with Heihachi being passed up once, I don't know if he'd be considered again.

Meowscarada would deserve to be up there if there weren't other Gen 9 Pokemon to consider. He also refers to Eevee as the secondary mascot of Pokemon, but I say that's moreso Charizard at this point. Eevee is probably #3, though the troubles with including its Eeveelutions should make it lower in chance.

Finally, he's weirdly confident in Sukapon.

 

[BrawlX10]

Even if it's not impossible, I doubt it. Because again, BOTW didn't have many opportunities to really feel repped properly in Smash Ultimate and games with this much impact don't get relegated to a style change and some spirits. Seeing Ocarina of Time, it got into Melee with 3/4 newcomers and that was a game that was also highly acclaimed - way more than just 'best selling game'. I do think that this is basically the most ideal time to get a Zelda newcomer and from the new era since it was such a phenomenon

I feel like people really underplay BOTW and TOTK. Those games are the new OOT/MM in terms of popularity, i just can't imagine them ignoring those games, if anything i expect like minimum 60% of the Zelda content begin from those games in Smash 6.

 

[RileyXY1]

I think the biggest reason I feel it is Smash is that Smash has released within the first two years of a console’s life for every game besides Smash 64. If it isn’t Smash, we’re likely not seeing it until at least 2030 assuming they start development this year. I feel like that’s way too late into the Switch 2’s life.

The only confirmed Switch 2 game I’m aware of is Mario Kart 9 so the year isn’t really bloated yet. Plus, there’s a good chance it doesn’t release until next year even if they reveal its existence in April.

Yeah. I can't see Smash being a late console release as well.

 

[Laniv]

I watched all of this video (more specifically, I had it on in the background) that discusses characters' likelihoods. And he ranked them all.

Spoiler: Tier List

View attachment 399337

He had some solid takes but also weird ones.

For starters, I don't agree all those characters are more likely than Bandana Waddle Dee. He says it's cause of Sakurai bias, but even if Sakurai still is the developer, Dee should be higher for his popularity and relevance. He also claims you can't do much with a spear, which.....just feels wrong.

Raven Beak depends on timing, but might not be picked even if the timing is good for him. Certainly not a guarantee like he claims. Rauru should also be lower. Krystal has some popularity but not as much as other requests, and with Star Fox not having recent games, I don't see her as likely. And with Heihachi being passed up once, I don't know if he'd be considered again.

Meowscarada would deserve to be up there if there weren't other Gen 9 Pokemon to consider. He also refers to Eevee as the secondary mascot of Pokemon, but I say that's moreso Charizard at this point. Eevee is probably #3, though the troubles with including its Eeveelutions should make it lower in chance.

Finally, he's weirdly confident in Sukapon.

Skull Kid being less likely than Sylux is... a choice.

 

[Gengar84]

I watched all of this video (more specifically, I had it on in the background) that discusses characters' likelihoods. And he ranked them all.

Spoiler: Tier List

View attachment 399337

He had some solid takes but also weird ones.

For starters, I don't agree all those characters are more likely than Bandana Waddle Dee. He says it's cause of Sakurai bias, but even if Sakurai still is the developer, Dee should be higher for his popularity and relevance. He also claims you can't do much with a spear, which.....just feels wrong.

Raven Beak depends on timing, but might not be picked even if the timing is good for him. Certainly not a guarantee like he claims. Rauru should also be lower. Krystal has some popularity but not as much as other requests, and with Star Fox not having recent games, I don't see her as likely. And with Heihachi being passed up once, I don't know if he'd be considered again.

Meowscarada would deserve to be up there if there weren't other Gen 9 Pokemon to consider. He also refers to Eevee as the secondary mascot of Pokemon, but I say that's moreso Charizard at this point. Eevee is probably #3, though the troubles with including its Eeveelutions should make it lower in chance.

Finally, he's weirdly confident in Sukapon.

I think it’s kind of funny that out of all these characters, only three of them are in my top 20 most wanted characters (assuming that’s Sub-Zero at the end of “almost no chance”). At least those three are actually in my top 10 (Zero, Gengar, and Sub-Zero).

 

[DarthEnderX]

I think it’s kind of funny that out of all these characters, only three of them are in my top 20 most wanted characters

No Hayabusa, no Buyabusa.

 

[Gengar84]

No Hayabusa, no Buyabusa.

Wow I didn’t even notice he wasn’t here. That’s crazy to talk about that many characters and not even bring him up at all. I feel less bad about most of mine being missing now lol.

 

[SharkLord]

I watched all of this video (more specifically, I had it on in the background) that discusses characters' likelihoods. And he ranked them all.

Spoiler: Tier List

View attachment 399337

He had some solid takes but also weird ones.

For starters, I don't agree all those characters are more likely than Bandana Waddle Dee. He says it's cause of Sakurai bias, but even if Sakurai still is the developer, Dee should be higher for his popularity and relevance. He also claims you can't do much with a spear, which.....just feels wrong.

Raven Beak depends on timing, but might not be picked even if the timing is good for him. Certainly not a guarantee like he claims. Rauru should also be lower. Krystal has some popularity but not as much as other requests, and with Star Fox not having recent games, I don't see her as likely. And with Heihachi being passed up once, I don't know if he'd be considered again.

Meowscarada would deserve to be up there if there weren't other Gen 9 Pokemon to consider. He also refers to Eevee as the secondary mascot of Pokemon, but I say that's moreso Charizard at this point. Eevee is probably #3, though the troubles with including its Eeveelutions should make it lower in chance.

Finally, he's weirdly confident in Sukapon.

Regarding this, I've been thinking about the shape of the Kirby series during each Smash game's dev cycles. Back in Brawl, Kirby was a fairly minor franchise that hadn't had a big, series-defining release in a long time. It was just a consistent little series of low-end games, so getting Meta Knight and King Dedede was arguably quite generous, even if they're the other main chatacters of the series.

By Smash 4, the series had established itself with RtDL, but 4's development plan was set around 2011-2012, so RtDL was kinda it for major releases. At the time Bandana Dee had only been playable once, and when Triple Deluxe released in 2014 he was just the food carrier NPC, so even if he was decently popular he didn't have as much prominence. At most you could argue for an Epic Yarn stage - Which was actually planned, mind you, but was ditched for the Great Cave Offensive when Yoshi's Wooly World was announced. And from a corporate and a game design perspective, that's understandable - Wooly World was an upcoming title they probably wanted to push, and I can understand Sakurai wanting to avoid having an overlap in the stage list. I can see Sakurai trending towards the games he personally worked on, but it's important to remember that Kirby wasn't a system-defining series yet, and it didn't need too much new content the way the likes of Mario, Zelda, Pokemon, or even major early 3DS games like Fire Emblem and Kid Icarus would've warranted.

When Ultimate was set, the most recent game was Rainbow Curse, maybe Planet Robobot depending on when exactly the plan was finished. By this point, Kirby had been growing in prominence, and Bandana Dee had at least developed a consistent string of appearances. Even so, Kirby hadn't become a truly big name yet, and Bandana Dee's only other playable appearance was in Rainbow Curse, a spinoff title. Ultimate's newcomer and stage selection was extremely crunched too, so there was extremely little room for new content as well. The most we got was Marx as a boss, and he's got more going for him beyond "Sakurai bias" - Kirby has little in the way of recurring bosses, and Marx's moves had been referenced quite a bit throughout the series, so he has some of the most legacy out of the bosses at the time. Bandana Dee had some decent support by then, but he evidently wasn't smashing the ballot the way Ridley, K. Rool, or Sora did.

But now? Kirby's cracked the 10 million copies mark on the Switch in terms of overall sales, and that sets him as a solid B-list series, above the likes of Fire Emblem, Metroid, and Xenoblade. Kirby and the Forgotten Land is the first game to outsell Kirby's Dream Land in 30 years. Bandana Dee has continued to make consistent appearances as Kirby's definitive No. 2, showing up at the start even when Meta Knight and Dedede are absent, unlockable, or unplayable, and his support base has continued to grow. At this point, it's hard to excuse not having any new Kirby content. If we go another game and there's still no recent kirby content, then I'll start worrying about the alleged Sakurai bias.

 

[BrawlX10]

I watched all of this video (more specifically, I had it on in the background) that discusses characters' likelihoods. And he ranked them all.

Spoiler: Tier List

View attachment 399337

He had some solid takes but also weird ones.

For starters, I don't agree all those characters are more likely than Bandana Waddle Dee. He says it's cause of Sakurai bias, but even if Sakurai still is the developer, Dee should be higher for his popularity and relevance. He also claims you can't do much with a spear, which.....just feels wrong.

Raven Beak depends on timing, but might not be picked even if the timing is good for him. Certainly not a guarantee like he claims. Rauru should also be lower. Krystal has some popularity but not as much as other requests, and with Star Fox not having recent games, I don't see her as likely. And with Heihachi being passed up once, I don't know if he'd be considered again.

Meowscarada would deserve to be up there if there weren't other Gen 9 Pokemon to consider. He also refers to Eevee as the secondary mascot of Pokemon, but I say that's moreso Charizard at this point. Eevee is probably #3, though the troubles with including its Eeveelutions should make it lower in chance.

Finally, he's weirdly confident in Sukapon.

He seems like a cool guy, but a lot of his choices are ??? to me. I don't see how "Travis Touchown" "Alucard", "Ayumi Tachibana" , "Ogerpon" and "Heihachi" have a really good chance, but "Bandana Dee", "Tom Nook" and "Sold Badguy" and "Choosen Undead" are "Could go either way,a tier below, when they're way more likely than any of those characters in my opinion.

 

[PersonAngelo53]

In the Fatal Fury: City of the Wolves beta, you can see that they replaced Terry's Power Charge with a rekka move.

How would they implement that in Smash where Power Charge is his dash attack? Would it be something like the double dash attack in this video, but there's three of them? (It's hard to notice because he's always doing two in this video, but Black Shadow's dash attack isn't two shoulder tackles, it's just one that can be canceled into another)

Yeah now that you bring it up maybe Terry could get some minor changes tho the new Fatal fury might be to late in its release for when the new smash would be developed but will see what happens.

And on a side note Black shadow is pretty sick in this mod. One of my favorite characters to play in that mod.

 

[BrawlX10]

Yeah now that you bring it up maybe Terry could get some minor changes tho the new Fatal fury might be to late in its release for when the new smash would be developed but will see what happens.

And on a side note Black shadow is pretty sick in this mod. One of my favorite characters to play in that mod.

I feel like it's definitely too late for City of the Wolves content except maybe music and collectibles.

 

[Diddy Kong]

I watched all of this video (more specifically, I had it on in the background) that discusses characters' likelihoods. And he ranked them all.

Spoiler: Tier List

View attachment 399337

He had some solid takes but also weird ones.

For starters, I don't agree all those characters are more likely than Bandana Waddle Dee. He says it's cause of Sakurai bias, but even if Sakurai still is the developer, Dee should be higher for his popularity and relevance. He also claims you can't do much with a spear, which.....just feels wrong.

Raven Beak depends on timing, but might not be picked even if the timing is good for him. Certainly not a guarantee like he claims. Rauru should also be lower. Krystal has some popularity but not as much as other requests, and with Star Fox not having recent games, I don't see her as likely. And with Heihachi being passed up once, I don't know if he'd be considered again.

Meowscarada would deserve to be up there if there weren't other Gen 9 Pokemon to consider. He also refers to Eevee as the secondary mascot of Pokemon, but I say that's moreso Charizard at this point. Eevee is probably #3, though the troubles with including its Eeveelutions should make it lower in chance.

Finally, he's weirdly confident in Sukapon.

Didn't even list Dixie, and when I finally reached the portrait of Impa, he confused her with Mineru. They don't even remotely look alike...

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

There's really no way of determining either way. It's either Smash with a bit longer dev time, or not smash and we'll be waiting till 2027-2028 depending on how long it takes to develop what he's currently working on.

I mean I could also see it being the big 2027 holiday game because this year is Mario Kart which after 8 Deluxe's huge success, I imagine you'd give it some space in terms of huge gangbuster releases.

Then next year I imagine Pokemon Gen 10 would be the big holiday release because Pokemon has released new Generations in November since at least Gen 7. I imagine this is the case because I'd be shocked if Pokemon passed up the chance to release the 10th Generation in the year of their 30th anniversary. You'd reveal Smash the same year and probably put a Gen 10 Pokemon in it as a result, revealed some time in 2027.

Of course there's nothing saying Smash HAS to be a holiday release, I think Ultimate is the only one that has been, but it's something I could see happening.

 

[Wonder Smash]

Ultimate, I feel, is a game that has so much in it that I can definitely wait a little while longer before the next Smash game comes out.

 

[ninjahmos]

It seems to me that Sakurai loves his traditions, especially when it comes to Smash, but if Sakurai's next project is Smash, and if he doesn't make certain changes that probably need to be made, including Ganondorf's moveset…and this may have been said before, but people are probably gonna be like "OK WTH Sakurai?!"

 

[Louie G.]

On the topic of Bandana Dee, I still feel a bit skeptical. Not because of Sakurai bias, I truly don't think he's that petty. Forgotten Land will get a sufficient amount of content next game, supplemental content will probably be served much better than it was in Smash 4 -> Ultimate. But I remain uncertain of Sakurai's stance on specifically this character, whether or not Dee's gameplay hook, individual presence or 'x-factor' appeal to him.

I'll validate much of what SharkLord said because I've been saying the same thing, Smash 6 is arguably the first time Bandana Dee is entering the conversation as a "main character". Forgotten Land sets aside Bandana Dee as the designated Player 2 (as does Star Allies, sorta) so his active mainline roles have been more plentiful. Circa Ultimate I don't think his appearance in Robobot was very inspiring, and Rainbow Curse was probably not a consideration. Circa Smash 4 he had failed to establish himself as a recurring character yet, he was mostly coasting off RTDL's P4 role. Now it's inarguable that he's a permanent member of the crew, but I don't think it's all that confusing or mysterious why it hasn't worked out for him yet.

So my skepticism is entirely vibes based. It's plausible that these more consistent mainline appearances and his steady community support counteract whatever presumed disinterest Sakurai may have toward the character. And I can think of multiple ways Dee can be a compelling character that don't begin and end with simply being a spear user. One of them that I came up with, where Bandana Dee's spear is a resource that can be dropped and he can be disarmed from, is actually incredibly exciting and unique to me.

So this is by no means me saying it can't work, it won't happen, or that Bandana Dee can't be unique but... there's just something about the guy that prevents me from going all the way to predict him on the roster. He deserves it but ultimately if Sakurai isn't feeling him - for moveset / x-factor related reasons, not because muh modern Kirby - I really wouldn't be surprised. I mean, I'm a massive fan of Kirby, I know what he's worth, but on paper and outside the bubble the character is not the most exciting if we're keeping it a buck.

 

[ninjahmos]

I know we need more content from more modern Kirby games, but I still hope the next game has more content from older non-Sakurai Kirby games, especially music. But we all know that's not very likely to happen.

Oh, and the Kirby series music list is still missing this:

 

[Gorgonzales]

I think Bandana Dee's placement in that tier list is understandable. He has a lot going for him, but I also understand he isn't the most exciting character and there might be other characters that might out-prioritze him in the next game's roster.

If he doesn't show up in any capacity next time as at least an assist trophy, though, then that probably indicates that someone on the development team doesn't really care for him at all.

Skull Kid being less likely than Sylux is... a choice.

Listen. I was skeptical of that too, but the more you think of it, the more it makes sense.

Zelda is traditionally a series that hasn't got anyone outside of the main Triforce cast as playable. Not saying this couldn't change, but so far that's the precedent that's been set. If a non-triforce character were to get in, the developers would most likely go for someone relevant like Impa, Rauru, or a champion. Skull Kid's competition is very fierce and I don't blame FeliciaFan for putting him where he is.

 

[RodNutTakin]

I watched all of this video (more specifically, I had it on in the background) that discusses characters' likelihoods. And he ranked them all.

Spoiler: Tier List

View attachment 399337

He had some solid takes but also weird ones.

For starters, I don't agree all those characters are more likely than Bandana Waddle Dee. He says it's cause of Sakurai bias, but even if Sakurai still is the developer, Dee should be higher for his popularity and relevance. He also claims you can't do much with a spear, which.....just feels wrong.

Raven Beak depends on timing, but might not be picked even if the timing is good for him. Certainly not a guarantee like he claims. Rauru should also be lower. Krystal has some popularity but not as much as other requests, and with Star Fox not having recent games, I don't see her as likely. And with Heihachi being passed up once, I don't know if he'd be considered again.

Meowscarada would deserve to be up there if there weren't other Gen 9 Pokemon to consider. He also refers to Eevee as the secondary mascot of Pokemon, but I say that's moreso Charizard at this point. Eevee is probably #3, though the troubles with including its Eeveelutions should make it lower in chance.

Finally, he's weirdly confident in Sukapon.

I already explained why his list of "options" for the tierlist is terrible earlier.

 

[Louie G.]

Listen. I was skeptical of that too, but the more you think of it, the more it makes sense.

I get the reservation with Skull Kid - bit harsher than I’d be but I get it - although I still don’t understand the blind confidence in Sylux. I know he’s technically a recurring character but if we suspect the roster may have been drafted at any point up to this very date... it would likely be too early to act on anything Prime 4 related there.

Which, in fairness, is why Raven Beak is placed higher (too high, but I digress) than Sylux to begin with. The presumed timing aligns much nicer with Metroid Dread. I’ll start taking Sylux more seriously when Prime 4 comes out and we can judge him accordingly, probably as a DLC candidate if anything. But up until then it’s kind of a nothing pick to me, founded on information that we don’t know yet / an appearance we know nothing about yet.

 

[ninjahmos]

I watched all of this video (more specifically, I had it on in the background) that discusses characters' likelihoods. And he ranked them all.

Spoiler: Tier List

View attachment 399337

He had some solid takes but also weird ones.

For starters, I don't agree all those characters are more likely than Bandana Waddle Dee. He says it's cause of Sakurai bias, but even if Sakurai still is the developer, Dee should be higher for his popularity and relevance. He also claims you can't do much with a spear, which.....just feels wrong.

Raven Beak depends on timing, but might not be picked even if the timing is good for him. Certainly not a guarantee like he claims. Rauru should also be lower. Krystal has some popularity but not as much as other requests, and with Star Fox not having recent games, I don't see her as likely. And with Heihachi being passed up once, I don't know if he'd be considered again.

Meowscarada would deserve to be up there if there weren't other Gen 9 Pokemon to consider. He also refers to Eevee as the secondary mascot of Pokemon, but I say that's moreso Charizard at this point. Eevee is probably #3, though the troubles with including its Eeveelutions should make it lower in chance.

Finally, he's weirdly confident in Sukapon.

Yeah, this list is rather questionable. As much as I'd love to see Takamaru and Ayumi, I feel like those two are more "could go either way" than most of his other choices.

 

[Kirby Dragons]

I already explained why his list of "options" for the tierlist is terrible earlier.

There's some very notable omissions, as has been pointed out, and definitely characters I'd replace. But I mostly focused on what characters he did decide to list.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

BWD may come down to a push by Nintendo itself. If the company sees enough value in including him, especially after Forgotten Land, Sakurai's professional enough to make the character work with whatever distinct hooks he can think of with him.

 

[Louie G.]

BWD may come down to a push by Nintendo itself. If the company sees enough value in including him, especially after Forgotten Land, Sakurai's professional enough to make the character work with whatever distinct hooks he can think of with him.

True enough, although I think Nintendo’s priorities may land more on prominent in-house mascots from Animal Crossing and Splatoon. BWD is certainly around but isn’t prominent enough to seem to me like this sort of mandate character from upper management. Unless the request comes from HAL specifically, which I could see happening.

We don’t really know which characters beyond DLC were advised by Nintendo directly, which is interesting to think about. I imagine certain big guns, like Inkling and Isabelle, were already in the cards so I’ve assumed their interests often conveniently align.

 

[Laniv]

I think Bandana Dee's placement in that tier list is understandable. He has a lot going for him, but I also understand he isn't the most exciting character and there might be other characters that might out-prioritze him in the next game's roster.

If he doesn't show up in any capacity next time as at least an assist trophy, though, then that probably indicates that someone on the development team doesn't really care for him at all.



Listen. I was skeptical of that too, but the more you think of it, the more it makes sense.

Zelda is traditionally a series that hasn't got anyone outside of the main Triforce cast as playable. Not saying this couldn't change, but so far that's the precedent that's been set. If a non-triforce character were to get in, the developers would most likely go for someone relevant like Impa, Rauru, or a champion. Skull Kid's competition is very fierce and I don't blame FeliciaFan for putting him where he is.

Fair, but his low placement compared to Sylux, a character that has done very little for almost two decades and largely stuck around with the promise of "he'll be cool one day, we promise", is more than a little eyebrow-raising

 

[BrawlX10]

Fair, but his low placement compared to Sylux, a character that has done very little for almost two decades and largely stuck around with the promise of "he'll be cool one day, we promise", is more than a little eyebrow-raising

Sylux has little to no chance to be in the base roster if it was chosen in April 2022. So yes, probably Skull Kid is more likely than him to be in the base game, but calling Skull Kid "likely" is also a strech, i put him more in a "Possible but i wouldn't bet on it" tier. Which is also the same tier i'd put Pauline, Geno and Isaac in, honestly.
If we could DLC, then Sylux chances definitely go up considerably, probably more than Skull Kid's overall.

 

[Watuna4343]

I watched all of this video (more specifically, I had it on in the background) that discusses characters' likelihoods. And he ranked them all.

Spoiler: Tier List

View attachment 399337

He had some solid takes but also weird ones.

For starters, I don't agree all those characters are more likely than Bandana Waddle Dee. He says it's cause of Sakurai bias, but even if Sakurai still is the developer, Dee should be higher for his popularity and relevance. He also claims you can't do much with a spear, which.....just feels wrong.

Raven Beak depends on timing, but might not be picked even if the timing is good for him. Certainly not a guarantee like he claims. Rauru should also be lower. Krystal has some popularity but not as much as other requests, and with Star Fox not having recent games, I don't see her as likely. And with Heihachi being passed up once, I don't know if he'd be considered again.

Meowscarada would deserve to be up there if there weren't other Gen 9 Pokemon to consider. He also refers to Eevee as the secondary mascot of Pokemon, but I say that's moreso Charizard at this point. Eevee is probably #3, though the troubles with including its Eeveelutions should make it lower in chance.

Finally, he's weirdly confident in Sukapon.

I think I agree with a lot on this list even though I have some disagreements. For starters I don't see why Noah/Mio are lumped together since of all the ways Xenoblade Chronicles is getting a new character, a 2-in-1 Noah/Mio is exactly 0%. Either one of them gets in, or both or none at all. With that said, I'd bet on Mio since I am slowly starting to see Noah as the 'shocker exclusion' from the game or it could be someone else completely. With that said I agree about Bandana Waddle Dee and Tom Nook not being confidently in likely at the very least. I feel like they got plenty of merit to be in the next game, even if I am not 100% locked in on either of them, I still would bet on them entering as newcomers. On the other hand Takamaru and Krystal have no business being on likely. Takamaru remains Japan-exclusive and we know that it is a bit of a dealbreaker for Sakurai, what with Ayumi not getting further in development for that reason and why Lucas was lucky enough to stay in Brawl before Sakurai found out about his Japan-exclusivity. So Takamaru is staying out of the roster. And Krystal is pretty clearly a biased opinion but he still should've held a lot more reservation on her given how many times she missed the boat and how Star Fox is looking like a sad lock on 2 characters past-Ultimate. Except for Waluigi, who I definitely agree is a lock for the next game, he's far too generous to the Mario cast in here, like any character that isn't Waluigi should be knocked down a tier and Captain Toad, Geno and Paper Mario 2 tiers even. Idk why regular Toad and Pauline aren't included as they are far more likely options for the possible 2nd Mario newcomer but the ones in here aren't coming in Smash at all.

Now for some strong agreements here, YES on Meowscarada being a lock, this is probably my hottest take but Meowscarada is so going to be the Pokémon newcomer for the next game. Like, even if Gen X or Legends Z-A come out, I still see Meowscarada getting in and I know people will disagree with this stance. Also as we were on the topic of Zelda, I sadly agree on Skull Kid's placement. This character has missed the boat big time and I think he is moreso asked for as the 'mandatory Zelda newcomer because the franchise needs one' rather than 'I need Skull Kid'. Rauru on likely I think I agree on, though I'd still bet more on Sidon since he's more popular. But hey, I did say that a BotW/TotK Zelda newcomer is happening and honestly, Rauru wouldn't be that left field even if I still put my eggs on another basket. Sylux, Impa and Shantae I strongly agree with as well (Shantae I think is a character that wouldn't even be considered if she didn't have some popularity but alas) in terms of placements. Generally, everything else just feels right to me here.