Guess I'll throw my own two cents in there.
Ultimate is a magical game. We are truly blessed with the game that we got. Getting every character in one game was my dream game. It was the funny little hypothetical that would always make you smile. And then it happened and then we got a ton of banger newcomers on top of that. We have almost every stage. The gameplay is fantastic and the speed increase was a wonderful move. I'm a super Nintendo nerd, so the references in the spirit battles aren't lost on me. It truly feels like the ultimate Smash game, pun intended. There's so much content in this game and its so well made that I can still have fun playing its modes to this day. I'm not bored of it yet.
I know we're always talking about new stuff here. That's the point of the thread, but wow. We truly don't understand just how well we have it right now. Ultimate isn't appreciated enough in my opinion. Sakurai, the dev team, Nintendo and all of the companies involved made something truly special and is something I'll treasure for all of time.
Sure, there are a LOT of flaws, some of them major and frustrating. But what we got is truly special, and because of that, I... don't really want a brand new Smash game. I'd personally be satisfied if Ultimate was added onto and changed and improved forever. Sakurai was right when he said he might have put himself into a corner here. Anything after this is going to feel like a downgrade in some way. At least to me.
All that said, I'm not going to pretend that Ultimate Deluxe is happening. If the next system is backwards compatible (and I hope it is), there isn't much point porting any Switch game to a new console. I'd love a "complete package," where the DLC wouldn't have to be downloaded for preservation's sake, but Ultimate Deluxe isn't happening. I'd be more willing to believe another game where EIH is happening again (real slim chances there), then believe in Ultimate Deluxe.
People are going to buy Smash no matter what because its Smash, and it would take some MAJOR screw ups to not make a significant profit. And honestly, part of the reason why I personally cling onto Ultimate so much is because I expect the next Smash game to be radically different. If you advertise a very similar game with less stuff, people will start to feel frustrated. But a different, new kind of game with less stuff doesn't do that nearly as much. I expect the next Smash to have some sort of hook or gimmick to make it stand out from other games. The gimmick will probably be fun and I'll probably enjoy it, but I'm not even going to pretend to predict what it will be. I can't feel that excited for a gameplay change that I don't even know exists. Things like air dashes and level supers can be fun to discuss, but they aren't happening at the moment. I just expect the next Smash to be designed from the ground up to expand on this new gimmick. And that's where I think people are underestimating the amount of cuts there will be. Suddenly all those characters we take for granted are gone. Cuts by themselves aren't bad. I understand why they exist. Games can't go on forever. But I think a lot of characters people love will be gone. A lot of characters I love will be gone. I expect the roster to be around 40 - 55, counting echoes.
And well, that wouldn't be so bad if I didn't know that people would clown on the characters who got cut, ignoring the value and joy they brought. I know I shouldn't let other people's opinions bug me on that but Smash is really special to me. It already annoys me when people say "X is worthless." The next game is going to bring that out, tenfold. I dunno. I just can't really get excited for a new Smash at the moment. My most wanted characters are either already in, not getting in a smaller roster or simply aren't getting in anyways (RIP Lloyd, Crono, Phoenix, Isaac). There's Bandana Waddle Dee as a standout. I think he's got a good shot, but not on a small roster. I enjoy a lot of games, so other characters like Ring Fit Adventurer or the Astral Chain Hero would make me happy. Speculating and supporting those characters are fun. I like talking about possibilities. Even obscure ones (Zael my beloved) but I'm tired of people convincing themselves things are happening. I'm tired of cult threads. I have an aversion to certain characters now that I shouldn't have because their threads were THAT bad. It's not the character's fault and its not right, but its hard to get rid of those emotions entirely. A new game, especially one that's radically different with lots of cuts will only make that whole internet scene worse. And I hate saying this, but I think all of the third party "hype tourists" have made speculation exhausting. I love third party characters. They don't tarnish the game in the slightest and only make it better, but some fanbases can be real obnoxious when its clear they don't actually like Smash in the first place. I think the next game is going to be smaller in scope and I think the Ultimate DLC ballooned third party expectations to an absurd degree. We're getting a smaller cast and the speculation community is not going to take that well. Right now, its pretty chill, but during a full hype cycle? Hoo boy, its going to be rough.
I know a new one is coming soon, but because of all the reasons above, I'm just content with Ultimate for now. I'm not feeling that itch yet. I kinda want other Nintendo franchises to continue for a while so we can get more and more possibilities for newcomers, stages, items and assists. Maybe a reveal trailer will wow me. Maybe the gameplay hook will be so good, I'll be talking about it for days.
But for the first time, the idea of a new Smash game just fills me with... indifference?
Maybe I'm being cynical or just stuck in my ways, but I'm just speaking honestly right now. I know this isn't the popular opinion. I too share Mario Kart 8 fatigue and Ultimate is certainly starting to show its age in many ways (online please work). I get the desire for a new game. I'm just not feeling it right now.