Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Shroob]

The ones that would ACTUALLY be "well received"?

Isaac: No (perfect example of a character that'd be huge here, and nobody outside of SmashBoards gives a **** about)
Dixie Kong: Yes
Cranky Kong: Maybe
Funky Kong: No
Toad/Captain Toad: Yes
Pauline: Yes
Waluigi: Yes
Bandana Dee: Maybe
Marx: No
Adeline: No
Tom Nook: Yes
Ring Fit Trainer: Hmm...that game sold really well, but I question how much crossover there is between it an Smash. Wii Fit Trainer's reception was pretty mediocre.
Impa: Yes
Skull Kid: Yes
Midna: Maybe
any of the BotW Champions: Depends on the Champion
Lyn: No
Krystal: Yes
Slippy Toad: No
Sylux: No
Raven Beak: No
Takamaru: No
ExiteBiker: No
Balloon Fighter: No
Mach Rider: No

Maybe hot take.

I'd bump Dee up to a yes. Kirby tends to be extremely well received in Japan, so getting another Kirby character, one that's as iconic to the series as a Waddle Dee is, would go over very well with the Japanese audience.

In the west it'd be a lot more hit or miss, but Japan would eat that up.

 

[Diddy Kong]

And several aren't.

If you honestly think there's a ton of people who are going to be hyped about the likes of Takamaru...Balloon Fighter...Mach Rider...

I think that depends on what you consider a "Smash fan". And if you're definition of a "Smash fan" is someone that would be hyped about a character they've never heard of outside of being an Assist Trophy in Smash, your definition of "Smash fan" is, like, less than 10% of Smash's actual customer base. Again, I think you are conflating the attitudes and knowledge of this board to those of a wider group of Smash players and owners. If you've convinced yourself that most people would be like "Oh **** yeah! Funky Kong!", you're going to be disappointed.

Actually, Funky had a popular appearance in Mario Kart Wii. So "Oh **** yeah! Funky Kong" might actually be more likely than you'd think.

Anyways , it would be my reaction to this for sure.

Also, online fans made Ridley and K.Rool happen. Isaac also seems to have done reasonably well on the ballot, hence the return of so much Golden Sun content in Ultimate.

Sure the retro characters would be literal who's to most, I didn't play those games either. But I listed them cause well, they're retro characters. I don't expect all of them to make it, but one of them surely couldn't do harm.

 

[Geno Boost]

The ones that would ACTUALLY be "well received"?

Isaac: No (perfect example of a character that'd be huge here, and nobody outside of SmashBoards gives a **** about)
Dixie Kong: Yes
Cranky Kong: Maybe
Funky Kong: No
Toad/Captain Toad: Yes
Pauline: Yes
Waluigi: Yes
Bandana Dee: Maybe
Marx: No
Adeline: No
Tom Nook: Yes
Ring Fit Trainer: Hmm...that game sold really well, but I question how much crossover there is between it an Smash. Wii Fit Trainer's reception was pretty mediocre.
Impa: Yes
Skull Kid: Yes
Midna: Maybe
any of the BotW Champions: Depends on the Champion
Lyn: No
Krystal: Yes
Slippy Toad: No
Sylux: No
Raven Beak: No
Takamaru: No
ExiteBiker: No
Balloon Fighter: No
Mach Rider: No

I think many would be excited for Funky Kong I don’t specifically mean the smash community.
I remember that he dominated the Mario Kart and ASMR communities and also he dominated topical freeze and many were excited to see him coming back in Mario Kart Tour and he is pretty much cool even to the people who sees him for the first time.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

A lot of the immediate reaction to such fighters would depend on context. Put Funky Kong in as a quick Echo Fighter reveal in a Smash Direct like Dark Samus or Daisy, and I'd say most would pretty positive.

If he were the only reveal in a Direct or one of the last fighters shown off in the base game? Eh, the initial impression would probably be a bit more negative. More obscure Nintendo fighters in general are going to go down easier to the general public if paired with a more popular first or third party pick.

 

[Guynamednelson]

People get soo wrapped up in the online echo chamber that we forget that Ultimate sold like, 24-25 MILLION copies of Smash, and sites like this have like, at best, 100 active users on at any given time, at BEST.

Do you think those 100 or so members are just people who are begging for Geno? Because as you can see, they aren't. There's a good chunk of people who view Smash more as a money making tool than as a game, and thus...

 

[SKX31]

I would be very surprised if anyone can afford Valve.


Valve is a company which makes probably some of the most money in regards to the PC market because they get a cut out of every sale they make on Steam. Steam as a platform has basically made it so they don't need to make games for a good near decade now, and the stuff they have put out is just stuff like HL Alyx.

Also the fact that CS GO and Dota 2 - Valve's own games - are consistently the #1 and #2 on Steam day in and day out by a mile; and they have been very solid money makers for Valve for the past 10 years. PUBG is the only game I know of that has gotten consistently close, not to mention overtaking either of those two in the past couple years. TF2's still consistently in the top 10.

Okay, sure, those games are only on Steam unlike say PUBG, Apex, GTA or MH Rise (the last three of which have come up in speculation circles mind) but that gap is still absolutely massive no matter how one looks at it.

A lot of the immediate reaction to such fighters would depend on context. Put Funky Kong in as a quick Echo Fighter reveal in a Smash Direct like Dark Samus or Daisy, and I'd say most would pretty positive.

If he were the only reveal in a Direct or one of the last fighters shown off in the base game? Eh, the initial impression would probably be a bit more negative. More obscure Nintendo fighters in general are going to go down easier to the general public if paired with a more popular first or third party pick.

In addition, how the trailers are structured and how those characters are initially shown off matters quite a lot.

It was what helped Daisy Ridley quite a bit - Daisy came alongside the introduction of the echo fighter concept, which helped her reception initially. Ridley was not just a very long standing request; he was also chosen to help fill out the sorely needed villain numbers* and to provide a different kind of heavyweight character (as a very agressive heavyweight, a rather rare sight outside of like DK). His trailer is also extremely well made even as a savvy person could tell quickly that it's him they're revealing. In particular, they made sure to sell Ridley's savagery and all-out playstyle.

Now Byleth's trailer... oh boy. MockRock ranked it as one of the worst DLC trailers alongside Corrin, and MockRock is a 3H fan / wound up using Byleth a lot. In addition to what he said - Byleth's trailer has way too much un needed build up when it's obvious from the trailer's start who it's going to be - I'm gonna add that personally I felt that the trailer was overall way too disjointed. You have the reveal, weapon showcase, a couple canon references / jokes... then the F Byleth reveal that everyone expected at that point. Ending it on FinalSmash.png didn't help.** People weren't entirely sure how the weapons would work, as MockRock noted.

Yes, I know, I'm talking about a DLC fighter which is a bit different. Still, I think it's applicable to future base game scenarios since like with the examples above, the reaction's going to be heavily based around context at the time. A base game trailer that is as well made as Ridley's is going to significantly help the reception. Had Corrin - or Byleth - been revealed base game, with the same trailers intact, I don't think the reaction would've changed much if at all because of the pre-existing conditions and how the trailers themselves were structured.

Quick edit: Echo fighter reactions are probably going to be more cautious now with hindsight, but they could still be very much welcome.

* To writ, Smash 4 had like what, three bonafide villains? Six if you're very generous and say that Dedede, Mewtwo and Wario are? Ultimate not only heralded Wolf's return, but also added another five to the fold, bringing the total to 8 by the most strict definition of villain.)

** It certainly didn't stop Byleth from being a popular character to use in Smash - especially casually - but the dislike ratio did shape the discourse heavily.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Yeah, Byleth will serve as a prototypical example of how not to reveal a potentially controversial fighter, especially one that's a mystery showcase with no other elements (not even gaming news in a general direct) to mitigate it.

 

[Ivander]

A lot of the immediate reaction to such fighters would depend on context. Put Funky Kong in as a quick Echo Fighter reveal in a Smash Direct like Dark Samus or Daisy, and I'd say most would pretty positive.

I mean, to the casual audience who doesn't really know a thing about Funky Kong.....maybe...

But it's like....I like the idea of Echo Fighters when it would or does make sense. Like I'm good with the idea of Paula from Earthbound being an Echo of Lucas because the Specials Lucas and Ness use were originally used by her and not them, and you could replace the stick with Paula's Frying Pan and the Rope Snake with Ness' grab.
But I also don't like Echo Fighters when everybody just feels like they can make anybody an Echo Fighter just because they look similar, use a similar weapon, etc. Like, yes, Nintendo does mostly emphasise on Funky Kong being a surfer monkey with a surfboard, but he's also a mechanical genius who can make planes and other vehicles using barrels, can make guns that use fruit, peanuts and feathers as ammunition, Orange grenades, and also uses a "literal" firework rocket launcher that can also fire other items like makeshift rubber boots and whatnot. And yet people just make him an Echo of Donkey Kong because they are both similar in stature.
Like you guys ask for some more creative movesets and complain about the lack of originality regarding Fire Emblem main characters, but when it comes to characters who could actually bring some of these more creative movesets, the best you can do is make them almost exactly similar to the main characters of those series. Like I get that Echo Fighters is a good opportunity for lesser known characters to have a chance at getting in, but that doesn't mean that all of them should be regulated into an Echo Fighter just because they look like they can be. Even I wish Dark Samus, Dark Pit, and Daisy had a bit more originality, even if functionally-wise, they do make sense.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I'm a DK fan and I'd love to see Funky as a fighter with his own moveset, especially if it incorporated more elements from the DKC series proper.

But I've also encountered enough of the discourse online to know that the existence of a supporting Donkey Kong character (not even one with three playable mainline games under her belt like Dixie) getting his own original moves while Dark Samus (and especially Ganondorf) didn't would get some backlash. That's not even getting into the inevitable cost/benefit talk we'd see online of certain people arguing about if the developmental effort of making Funky something beyond an echo or semi-clone was worth it.

 

[DarthEnderX]

But I also don't like Echo Fighters when everybody just feels like they can make anybody an Echo Fighter just because they look similar, use a similar weapon, etc. Like, yes, Nintendo does mostly emphasise on Funky Kong being a surfer monkey with a surfboard, but he's also a mechanical genius who can make planes and other vehicles using barrels, can make guns that use fruit, peanuts and feathers as ammunition, Orange grenades, and also uses a "literal" firework rocket launcher that can also fire other items like makeshift rubber boots and whatnot. And yet people just make him an Echo of Donkey Kong because they are both similar in stature.

No. They make him an Echo of Donkey Kong because in Tropical Freeze, his only playable appearance, he PLAYS exactly like Donkey Kong, except for his one surfboard move.

 

[Shroob]

Do you think those 100 or so members are just people who are begging for Geno? Because as you can see, they aren't. There's a good chunk of people who view Smash more as a money making tool than as a game, and thus...

At what point did I mention Geno?

If anything, you're just proving my point. The online speculation bubble is decently sized, but it's not even a noticeable dent in Ultimate's sales figures if every speculator were to have not bought the game.

 

[SPEN18]

If you honestly think there's a ton of people who are going to be hyped about the likes of Takamaru...Balloon Fighter...Mach Rider...

We never said "hype," just "well-received," which is actually a pretty low bar to clear for casuals.

Actually, most people are well past the point of complaining about retro-type reps like these, especially ones that fill popular fictional archetypes like "samurai warrior" or "motorbiker" that we don't have yet.

The ones that would ACTUALLY be "well received"?

Isaac: No (perfect example of a character that'd be huge here, and nobody outside of SmashBoards gives a **** about)
Dixie Kong: Yes
Cranky Kong: Maybe
Funky Kong: No
Toad/Captain Toad: Yes
Pauline: Yes
Waluigi: Yes
Bandana Dee: Maybe
Marx: No
Adeline: No
Tom Nook: Yes
Ring Fit Trainer: Hmm...that game sold really well, but I question how much crossover there is between it an Smash. Wii Fit Trainer's reception was pretty mediocre.
Impa: Yes
Skull Kid: Yes
Midna: Maybe
any of the BotW Champions: Depends on the Champion
Lyn: No
Krystal: Yes
Slippy Toad: No
Sylux: No
Raven Beak: No
Takamaru: No
ExiteBiker: No
Balloon Fighter: No
Mach Rider: No

I'll do my best with some quick words on these.

For Isaac, people not knowing about him does not mean a poor reception, as we've seen time and time again with characters like Shulk or Little Mac. He wouldn't be added to target casuals anyway, though: he'd be a bone thrown to the fans. As an additional note of personal perspective, I think he's a character that some need to really see in action in order to understand his appeal, with all the unique abilities he has.

Funky Kong appears in casual-littered games like Kart and Super Sluggers, plus DKC.

Marx, appearing in Super Star and Super Star Ultra, along with having a playable appearance in Star Allies, appeals to like three separate generations of Kirby fans. Plus he's a boss in Ultimate which vastly elevates his recognizability among Smash players; we have Ridley giving precedence to bosses becoming playable now, so I think if he got in a lot of people would make sense of it in terms of that.

Adeleine there's someone else who would probably do a better job of explaining than me. An N64-era retro rep from an existing series sounds a lot like K. Rool, though, for someone who doesn't care about popularity among hardcore fans on Smashboards.

Wii Fit had some negative reactions but these days it's pretty well-accepted as part of the roster; if anything Ring Fit would be more welcome now than Wii Fit was in its time since it wouldn't be as much of a shocker, nor would it change the way people think about what types of games get represented.

With BotW Champions you would of course have people upset that their favorite didn't get in, but nobody would question the game of BotW itself getting a dedicated rep, and most would quickly understand the fact that only one could get in just like they did with Byleth over House leaders or starter Pokemon.

Lyn I could see some negative reactions in an EiH scenario, but if she came with a reorganization of the FE roster in general it wouldn't be bad (certainly not among FE fans, which are the people her addition would be targeting anyway). Many casual Smash players at least have seen her before, too, since she's been an Assist for a long time (and a well-liked one at that, I think).

Slippy Toad would probably be perceived as somewhat of a joke character by some casuals, but Star Fox 64 is still as well-known as ever at least within Nintendo circles. There would be some haters but most would be charmed by his goofy demeanor and possible Smart Bomb shenanigans.

Sylux and Raven Beak depend a lot on how Dread's legacy holds up and what happens with Sylux in the Prime series. If Sylux ends up a main villain of Prime 4 or something, then watch out.

I argued for the 80s retros above.

 

[Perkilator]

Check this out:

Per translations of the latest Nintendo Dream Magazine, they are potentially teasing an unexpected game announcement. The February Issue releases on 2/21....

A Nintendo Direct isn't out of the question well before then!https://t.co/cuGZBaAyS3

— Stealth (@Stealth40k) January 23, 2022

My God, I hope so!

 

[chocolatejr9]

Check this out:

Per translations of the latest Nintendo Dream Magazine, they are potentially teasing an unexpected game announcement. The February Issue releases on 2/21....

A Nintendo Direct isn't out of the question well before then!https://t.co/cuGZBaAyS3

— Stealth (@Stealth40k) January 23, 2022

My God, I hope so!

February IS usually the month where we get the first Direct of the year...

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

A February Direct would also make sense in regard to why they would drop the Kirby & the Forgotten Land promotional stuff in January. Nintendo may have determined that releasing the big promotional stuff for it in a February Direct for a March release simply wouldn't e enough time to do a big commercial push.

 

[Ivander]

Check this out:

Per translations of the latest Nintendo Dream Magazine, they are potentially teasing an unexpected game announcement. The February Issue releases on 2/21....

A Nintendo Direct isn't out of the question well before then!https://t.co/cuGZBaAyS3

— Stealth (@Stealth40k) January 23, 2022

My God, I hope so!

The wait for news is as slow this year as it was any other year.

To be honest, I do hope that there is some truth to the Mario Kart rumors of being a Nintendo crossover game. I need either that or a new Vs. Capcom game to satisfy my crossover game fever after Smash Bros...

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

The wait for news is as slow this year as it was any other year.

To be honest, I do hope that there is some truth to the Mario Kart rumors of being a Nintendo crossover game. I need either that or a new Vs. Capcom game to satisfy my crossover game fever after Smash Bros...

In an odd twist, we'll end up with Mario vs. Capcom Karts; get ready for Albert Wesker & Amaterasu throwing red shells at each other.

 

[dream1ng]

Check this out:

Per translations of the latest Nintendo Dream Magazine, they are potentially teasing an unexpected game announcement. The February Issue releases on 2/21....

A Nintendo Direct isn't out of the question well before then!https://t.co/cuGZBaAyS3

— Stealth (@Stealth40k) January 23, 2022

My God, I hope so!

A Direct before Feb 21 seems pretty plausible, that's a very common month for the show. Guessing the week of the 7th or the 14th.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

So.

Y'all think Cacomallow will be in the next game?

I'm thinking they were testing the costumes for the next game and since Cacomallow was never replicated I'm thinking it could be real.

 

[osby]

So.

Y'all think Cacomallow will be in the next game?

I'm thinking they were testing the costumes for the next game and since Cacomallow was never replicated I'm thinking it could be real.

My prediction is that Sakurai considered Cacodemon and Mallow as costumes but then decided to upgrade them to fighters due to their enduring popularity in the speculation community.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

My prediction is that Sakurai considered Cacodemon and Mallow as costumes but then decided to upgrade them to fighters due to their enduring popularity in the speculation community.

yeah that could happen too

what the speculation community says has real pull over sakurai and nintendo you know

thats why every fighter that was added in ultimate were popular speculation picks like simon, who no one thought would be added, joker, who like 5 people talked about, hero, who no one talked about until leaks, terry, who like 2 people talked about, sephiroth, who no one seriously talked about, kazuya, who no one thought was possible, and sora, who was all but universally thought to be impossible

see we have a perfect track record clearly theyre listening to us and only us ))))

 

[Simnm]

I feel out of all the echoes daisy should be the one who should be decloned the most
Like daisy shoudnt use float,toad counter and turnip at all

 

[CapitaineCrash]

I saw that there was a conversation about characters reception. I just want to add that I think that "Ring fit adventurer reception would be mediocre because Wii fit trainer reception was" is not true in my opinion. The reason why Wii fit trainer had mediocre reception is because some thought that she didn't fit in a fighting game. But Ring fit adventurer... actually fights monsters in the game. It's a fitness game with RPG elements, and we already know that RPG characters work well in Smash. I'm pretty sure Ring fit in Smash would be a okay reveal, it wouldn't blow the internet but hypothetically, I could see them being announced at e3 alongside another newcomer and the reception would be pretty good.

On the topic of retro characters, I think that the characters that are assist could have a very good reception if they are playable. Think of Little mac who was an assist in Brawl and got upgrade in Smash 4. Even if you're not familiar in Punch-out, people just liked the idea of a boxer in Smash and if you played Brawl you were at least a bit familiar with him. I'm sure that Takamaru could have the same reception, sure nobody care about The mysterious murasame castle aside from die hard Nintendo fans or some Smash speculator, but having a ninja that was previously an assist for 2 games could be pretty nat even for the average Smash fans.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Think of Little mac who was an assist in Brawl and got upgrade in Smash 4. Even if you're not familiar in Punch-out, people just liked the idea of a boxer in Smash and if you played Brawl you were at least a bit familiar with him

Hell the stereotypical Little Mac player is someone whose first exposure to Punch-Out might've been Smash in the first place. Same with the stereotypical Ness player and EarthBound. For that matter the Quirky EarthBound-Inspired Indie RPG™ would've never been a thing if Sakurai stuck with characters people recognized. You would've never had a bad time. It never would've become your chance to be a big shot.

 

[osby]

I saw that there was a conversation about characters reception. I just want to add that I think that "Ring fit adventurer reception would be mediocre because Wii fit trainer reception was" is not true in my opinion. The reason why Wii fit trainer had mediocre reception is because some thought that she didn't fit in a fighting game. But Ring fit adventurer... actually fights monsters in the game. It's a fitness game with RPG elements, and we already know that RPG characters work well in Smash. I'm pretty sure Ring fit in Smash would be a okay reveal, it wouldn't blow the internet but hypothetically, I could see them being announced at e3 alongside another newcomer and the reception would be pretty good.

Eh, I think people would be against Ring Fit Adventurer for the same reason Wii Fit Trainer got a lot of hate: being a "casual" character and not having a vocal fanbase. Being more expected might help but then you'll get "they're boring and predictable" people.

 

[Perkilator]

Ring Fit Trainee would actually be a lot more different from Wii Fit Trainer than people realize just from the ring alone. Trust me, I’ve played it since I got it for Christmas in 2019.

 

[SPEN18]

On the topic of retro characters, I think that the characters that are assist could have a very good reception if they are playable.

In fact, post-Brawl I thought that several of the Assists were among the best candidates for the next game. Looking back at it now, the Brawl Assists were a bit more of a mixed bag of character types than I realized at the time, but at least if you were looking at which unrepresented first party series could get reps the next time around, it seemed like a great place to look to get an idea. Perhaps not completely fairly I blame the focus on recency/relevancy in 4 for only getting Animal Crossing and Punch Out. The other new first party series in 4 (Wii Fit, Xenoblade, Duck Hunt) were pretty unforseen at that time, as was getting essentially 3 unique character slots dedicated to Miis (although of course all the Miis share the same body type and models, it's clear that they took a lot of work).

In general, though, I still think that the recognizability of characters who have appeared in Smash even in roles other than playable ones is understated in speculation. Given that the whole economic impetus for sequels is taking advantage of the fact that you already have an existing playerbase that is highly likely to be interested in your next installment, it's fair to say that characters like Isaac, Lyn, Marx, etc. could gain a lot of "reveal appeal" from their previous Smash appearances.

 

[Ivander]

In fact, post-Brawl I thought that several of the Assists were among the best candidates for the next game. Looking back at it now, the Brawl Assists were a bit more of a mixed bag of character types than I realized at the time, but at least if you were looking at which unrepresented first party series could get reps the next time around, it seemed like a great place to look to get an idea. Perhaps not completely fairly I blame the focus on recency/relevancy in 4 for only getting Animal Crossing and Punch Out. The other new first party series in 4 (Wii Fit, Xenoblade, Duck Hunt) were pretty unforseen at that time, as was getting essentially 3 unique character slots dedicated to Miis (although of course all the Miis share the same body type and models, it's clear that they took a lot of work).

In general, though, I still think that the recognizability of characters who have appeared in Smash even in roles other than playable ones is understated in speculation. Given that the whole economic impetus for sequels is taking advantage of the fact that you already have an existing playerbase that is highly likely to be interested in your next installment, it's fair to say that characters like Isaac, Lyn, Marx, etc. could gain a lot of "reveal appeal" from their previous Smash appearances.

I mean, it's not impossible considering Little Mac, Isabelle and Dark Samus were able to go from Assist Trophies to playable characters. And it's quite possible some characters became Assist Trophies because either they possibly did well in the Ballot, like Isaac and Krystal, or because they were considered as one of the best options to choose before finally deciding on the character, like Alucard. And it's not impossible for more Assist Trophy to become playable in a future game. Especially with Waluigi being a massively popular want.
That said, for the three's cases for becoming playable, there were favourable odds for their scenarios.

• Little Mac had the favor of Punch Out! being out quite recently around the time when the Smash 4 roster was being decided.
• Isabelle is a popular Nintendo character in general.
• Dark Samus had the benefit of being a suitable Echo Fighter and being a decent popular character.

Their scenarios were either because they were popular or because they were in the right situation to be considered. In Dark Samus' case, it was a mix of both. When looking at the Assist Trophies in Ultimate, Alucard, Bomberman, Zero, Shadow and Shovel Knight are probably the ones with the best opportunity because of A, their popularity and B, their 3rd-Party status.
It's alot harder for the 1st Parties because unsurprisingly for the most part, Nintendo wants the characters to be from something they can use those characters to advertise something that's come out or recently come out. The only 1st-Party characters with the best chances of being playable would be Waluigi, who is insanely popular and has a very loud fanbase, and Ashley, due to her being a very popular character and she and her series still being active.

• Isaac is one of the most popular 1st-Party Assist Trophies, but has the disadvantage of being from a notably dormant series. While it's possible for his popularity to make him considered for a playable appearance for a future game, like with King K. Rool and Banjo-Kazooie, it's also possible Nintendo might not consider him because aside from popularity, there's currently nothing for Isaac to market or advertise for.
• Krystal is another popular one, but has the disadvantage of not being in a Star Fox game since Command and Nintendo didn't see value in her returning for Star Fox Zero when Platinum suggested bringing her back.
• Lyn has the advantage of being one of the most popular Fire Emblem female characters and has been a popular want since Brawl. But so far, they haven't really seen value from adding characters from previous games aside from Chrom, who was popular in the Ballot and could be made an Echo Fighter. Only characters from the games currently being advertised or recently released. So Lyn's chances are likely very slim unless her game gets an Echoes-style remake at the right time.
• Skull Kid and Midna are popular, but no one knows anything on how they view the Zelda side characters.
• Takamaru seems to be in Sakurai's mind, but he has the disadvantage of not really being known in the West.
• And whether Spring Man comes to a future game or not depends on quite a bunch of things, like whether they can differentiate him from Min-Min, whether Min-Min is viewed as enough for ARMS, whether they want to choose another character over him, etc.

Anyway, it's a long wait until the next Smash Bros, so we won't really know until the next one gets announced and starts releasing info.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Takamaru seems to be in Sakurai's mind, but he has the disadvantage of not really being known in the West.

And yet Sakurai chose the worst time to cancel plans to make Takamaru playable due to Western unfamiliarity. During the development of 4, Nintendo Land featured Takamaru's Ninja Castle as a minigame and The Mysterious Murasame Castle was released worldwide on the 3DS Virtual Console.

At least during the development of Brawl, he wouldn't be able to add Takamaru to promote his inclusion in Samurai Warriors 3, and during Ultimate's development, The Mysterious Murasame Castle wasn't AND STILL ISN'T GOD DAMMIT added to NES Online.

 

[SPEN18]

I mean, it's not impossible considering Little Mac, Isabelle and Dark Samus were able to go from Assist Trophies to playable characters. And it's quite possible some characters became Assist Trophies because either they possibly did well in the Ballot, like Isaac and Krystal, or because they were considered as one of the best options to choose before finally deciding on the character, like Alucard. And it's not impossible for more Assist Trophy to become playable in a future game. Especially with Waluigi being a massively popular want.
That said, for the three's cases for becoming playable, there were favourable odds for their scenarios.

• Little Mac had the favor of Punch Out! being out quite recently around the time when the Smash 4 roster was being decided.
• Isabelle is a popular Nintendo character in general.
• Dark Samus had the benefit of being a suitable Echo Fighter and being a decent popular character.

Their scenarios were either because they were popular or because they were in the right situation to be considered. In Dark Samus' case, it was a mix of both. When looking at the Assist Trophies in Ultimate, Alucard, Bomberman, Zero, Shadow and Shovel Knight are probably the ones with the best opportunity because of A, their popularity and B, their 3rd-Party status.
It's alot harder for the 1st Parties because unsurprisingly for the most part, Nintendo wants the characters to be from something they can use those characters to advertise something that's come out or recently come out. The only 1st-Party characters with the best chances of being playable would be Waluigi, who is insanely popular and has a very loud fanbase, and Ashley, due to her being a very popular character and she and her series still being active.

• Isaac is one of the most popular 1st-Party Assist Trophies, but has the disadvantage of being from a notably dormant series. While it's possible for his popularity to make him considered for a playable appearance for a future game, like with King K. Rool and Banjo-Kazooie, it's also possible Nintendo might not consider him because aside from popularity, there's currently nothing for Isaac to market or advertise for.
• Krystal is another popular one, but has the disadvantage of not being in a Star Fox game since Command and Nintendo didn't see value in her returning for Star Fox Zero when Platinum suggested bringing her back.
• Lyn has the advantage of being one of the most popular Fire Emblem female characters and has been a popular want since Brawl. But so far, they haven't really seen value from adding characters from previous games aside from Chrom, who was popular in the Ballot and could be made an Echo Fighter. Only characters from the games currently being advertised or recently released. So Lyn's chances are likely very slim unless her game gets an Echoes-style remake at the right time.
• Skull Kid and Midna are popular, but no one knows anything on how they view the Zelda side characters.
• Takamaru seems to be in Sakurai's mind, but he has the disadvantage of not really being known in the West.
• And whether Spring Man comes to a future game or not depends on quite a bunch of things, like whether they can differentiate him from Min-Min, whether Min-Min is viewed as enough for ARMS, whether they want to choose another character over him, etc.

Anyway, it's a long wait until the next Smash Bros, so we won't really know until the next one gets announced and starts releasing info.

Of course it's possible, even likely, for current Assists to become PCs in the next game. I was mostly just lamenting that it hasn't happened more often.

I disagree that the third party Assists you listed have better chances than Isaac, Waluigi, or even some other ones like Skull Kid.

Sephiroth as a second rep from the same third party series is an exception and/or an indicator of possibility at this point more than any kind of pattern for how they go about things. They're not going to add Alucard and/or Zero, Shadow just because for ex. "Castlevania needs more reps"; these characters still have to get chosen over alternatives from their company, and there's still no precedent or newfound impetus for more than a few third party newcomers in a given base game. It's not at all clear that these are among the top 1-2, even 1-3 characters that'd be chosen from their respective companies, and it's not really fair to expect more than that for newcomers from one company even if you include a round or two of DLC (not impossible, but probably unlikely).

Bomberman's chances at this point largely hinge on the Ballot and popularity, much like other Assists such as Isaac, but it's fair to say he stands more directly in competition with other third parties they could alternatively use their budget to license. I'm not sure that his popularity is overwhelming enough compared to those others, but he shouldn't be underestimated I'll admit.

Shovel Knight I don't think is likely anymore since he's died down a bit in Smash popularity and the third party focus has steadily leaned towards the more vastly marketable and/or retro ones.

The first party Assists you mention do admittedly have plenty of things going against them, and most of them don't have the greatest of chances if I'm being realistic, but at least a few have chances as good as the third party ones. And at least as good as Ashley's, too, since she suffers from side-character syndrome and her popularity, while strong, isn't clearly greater than many of the others.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Sephiroth as a second rep from the same third party series is an exception and/or an indicator of possibility at this point more than any kind of pattern for how they go about things.

The most likely scenario was that Square-Enix still wanted to get money from an FFVII character being DLC, so they either had to cut Cloud and thus prevent this game from living up to its premise for a while, or devote new fighter resources to an additional FFVII character. Or they could've sold music packs separately and have that be the way Square gets their FFVII bucks while fans get more than two FFVII songs, but apparently they didn't wanna bother with that for whatever reason. Almost like they know more people care about fighters than any form of non-fighter representation.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Sephiroth felt like an example of everything falling into place, with Sakurai wanting better FF representation in stuff like music, Square Enix wanting to further promote the remake of VII, and Nintendo seeing the obvious revenue in having the most famous JRPG villain of all time be playable in a Smash Bros game.

 

[Dinoman96]

• Krystal is another popular one, but has the disadvantage of not being in a Star Fox game since Command and Nintendo didn't see value in her returning for Star Fox Zero when Platinum suggested bringing her back.

Honestly at this point I'm not sure how much "not being in a Star Fox game since Command" means much considering that Zero is literally the only and only all new game released since Command. It's honestly more of a damnation of the Star Fox IP itself than Krystal, really.

also I don't think there's any actual official evidence that Nintendo turned down Platinum's suggestion to bring Krystal back, that was just a shady rumor from Liam Robertson iirc.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Honestly at this point I'm not sure how much "not being in a Star Fox game since Command" means much considering that Zero is literally the only and only all new game released since Command. It's honestly more of a damnation of the Star Fox IP itself than Krystal, really.

also I don't think there's any actual official evidence that Nintendo turned down Platinum's suggestion to bring Krystal back, that was just a shady rumor from Liam Robertson iirc.

To be fair, Liam Robertson has been right about a lot of things...

 

[SPEN18]

Given the story direction of SF Zero, it wouldn't really make sense for Krystal to be in it. If Nintendo denied Krystal specifically it could have just been due to that, since it would've required pretty severe continuity changes for her to appear in a significant way.

 

[dream1ng]

Not sure how much sense is behind this Krystal claim. EPD started development of that game, clearly without Krystal, and Platinum was only brought on board later as support. At that point adding a character doesn't really make sense, it just would've further added dev time to a game Nintendo had to bring another studio on board to help speed up development. That would've been counterproductive.

If Platinum had been the lead from the beginning, Krystal probably would've been there. But a support team suggesting her at the point they joined to help get the game out doesn't make a lot of sense.

 

[JOJONumber691]

Honestly I would love if Krystal just explored Space on Foot with a Vehicle that allows her to get from Planet to Planet, but she explores the Planets themselves on foot with a thick spacesuit as protection.

 

[CapitaineCrash]

To be honest even if Krystal was hypothetically in Zero I don't think her chances would be much higher. Zero was such a huge failure, even for Wii u exclusive standard, that I don't think we will see Star fox back in the near future.

 

[chocolatejr9]

To be honest even if Krystal was hypothetically in Zero I don't think her chances would be much higher. Zero was such a huge failure, even for Wii u exclusive standard, that I don't think we will see Star fox back in the near future.

Not until they decide to port it to Switch, of course...

 

[SPEN18]

To be honest even if Krystal was hypothetically in Zero I don't think her chances would be much higher. Zero was such a huge failure, even for Wii u exclusive standard, that I don't think we will see Star fox back in the near future.

Yeah, I don't think a Zero appearance pushes Krystal over the edge, either. I do, however, think that Star Fox has an okay chance to return at some point (perhaps with a bit of a genre shift) given the recognizability of the brand and the popularity of several of its characters.

As much as Command made a mess of the story, there are still several options including a total retcon, choosing and running with one of the few endings that at least made a little bit of sense, retelling Command's story but without as many branching paths so we still get a clear canon ending, or maybe even a prequel telling the full story of James McCloud or something. Command was a fun game despite its flaws, but to this day I hate how convoluted the story ended up with all the branching paths.