Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[kirbstr]

I don’t think that’s true about incineroar, I’m not sure he’s popular with the Pokémon fans. With the smash fans sure

also fates may have sold well but that’s more to do with it following one of the most popular games in the series, plenty of people have criticised it. Just ask the people here

Incineroar was very prominent in the Sun/Moon anime, which has historically been a pretty important factor for Pokemon characters in Smash. The pro wrestler theme is also a direct tie in to one of the big parts of Sun/Moon, being the battle royal dome. The other two starters do not have as clear of a tie in to the setting of Alola. He isn't the most popular starter ever, probably even less popular than the Rowlet line. I still don't think that warrants him being cut.

And let me defend fates for a second. Fates is hated by 90% dunning-kruger effect fire emblem casuals who think they know the series because they've played the two NA released GBA games. It has issues for sure, and its story is genuinely terrible. However, it has one the most active communities and is up there with the most popular among super hard core fans with Thracia 776 and New Mystery; especially Conquest. The people that got into the series with Awakening also have a lot of love for the game and the characters from Fates are consistently some of the most popular in Heroes.

 

[fogbadge]

Incineroar was very prominent in the Sun/Moon anime, which has historically been a pretty important factor for Pokemon characters in Smash. The pro wrestler theme is also a direct tie in to one of the big parts of Sun/Moon, being the battle royal dome. The other two starters do not have as clear of a tie in to the setting of Alola. He isn't the most popular starter ever, probably even less popular than the Rowlet line. I still don't think that warrants him being cut.

And let me defend fates for a second. Fates is criticized by 90% dunning-kruger effect fire emblem casuals who think they know the series because they've played the two NA released GBA games. It has issues for sure, and its story is genuinely terrible. However, it has one the most active communities and is up there with the most popular among super hard core fans with Thracia 776 and New Mystery; especially Conquest. The people that got into the series with Awakening also have a lot of love for the game and the characters from Fates are consistently some of the most popular in Heroes.

slight problem with that is that litten has a bigger role in the anime that his final form and even then was no more prominent than rowlet and no main character owned the wrestler cat until right at the end. As for the wrestling dome in S/M is doesn’t really have prominence, you can easily ignore it for most of the game. Even then that’s not the same thing as popularity which is what you were arguing

 

[ninjahmos]

A reminder that they brought Ryo back to do eating sounds for Captain Falcon in Min-Min's trailer. Sure, he'll sound noticeably different, but I think he can still pull off Captain Falcon well.

Well, I hope you're right, because I've heard him yell "Falcon Punch" in his Vegeta voice in videos of certain fan conventions.

 

[kirbstr]

slight problem with that is that litten has a bigger role in the anime that his final form and even then was no more prominent than rowlet and no main character owned the wrestler cat until right at the end. As for the wrestling dome in S/M is doesn’t really have prominence, you can easily ignore it for most of the game. Even then that’s not the same thing as popularity which is what you were arguing

I consider them to be basically the same pokemon. Yea its technically not the form that is in Smash for most of the anime, but its still the same line and character.

Battle Royal Dome has as much prominence as contests and other pokemon game side content. Honestly probably more considering one of the main characters has an alter-ego based on it and you are forced to interact with it at least once.

 

[ninjahmos]

A reminder that they brought Ryo back to do eating sounds for Captain Falcon in Min-Min's trailer. Sure, he'll sound noticeably different, but I think he can still pull off Captain Falcon well.

Well, I hope you're right, because I've heard him yell "Falcon Punch" in his Vegeta voice in videos of certain fan conventions.

Although, they DID also bring back Takashi Nagasako as Ganondorf for Ultimate, so I could be wrong.

 

[fogbadge]

I consider them to be basically the same pokemon. Yea its technically not the form that is in Smash for most of the anime, but its still the same line and character.

Battle Royal Dome has as much prominence as contests and other pokemon game side content. Honestly probably more considering one of the main characters has an alter-ego based on it and you are forced to interact with it at least once.

well then no more prominent than the other 2

yeah once. That puts it on the same level as the card games in FF. it’s also worth noting that you can ignore the contests as well and they have nothing in smash. And this is still unrelated to popularity

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Which of the starter Pokemon's final forms in SM seems to be the most popular?

I know Primarina is extremely popular in Japan, and Decidueye was probably the most talked about at least on this site prior to Ultimate's release, but that evidently wasn't enough to land either it a spot in Ultimate.

 

[Arcanir]

Which of the starter Pokemon's final forms in SM seems to be the most popular?

I know Primarina is extremely popular in Japan, and Decidueye was probably the most talked about at least on this site prior to Ultimate's release, but that evidently wasn't enough to land either it a spot in Ultimate.

In Japan it seems to be Primarina>Incineroar>Decidueye going off of the Nintendo Dream poll. Globally it's Decidueye>Incineroar>Primarina going off of the Pokemon of the Year poll.

 

[Ivander]

Which of the starter Pokemon's final forms in SM seems to be the most popular?

I know Primarina is extremely popular in Japan, and Decidueye was probably the most talked about at least on this site prior to Ultimate's release, but that evidently wasn't enough to land either it a spot in Ultimate.

Decidueye was voted the highest out of all 3 last time I checked, but I think all 3 are notably and consistently popular next to each other compared to most of the other starters where 1 of them tends to drop way behind the other 2. I think only Gen 1 and Gen 3 are the only other ones where all 3 Starters are close to each other in popularity.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

People hated Incineroar when it came out. I don't know how much the community as a whole like it nowadays, but the competitive community has a love/hate relationship with it because it stops a lot of things and is practical in a ton of set ups, so you see it all the dang time, but it also stops degenerate strategies from being super viable, so some view it as a Pokémon that actively makes the metagame much healthier.

 

[fogbadge]

Which of the starter Pokemon's final forms in SM seems to be the most popular?

I know Primarina is extremely popular in Japan, and Decidueye was probably the most talked about at least on this site prior to Ultimate's release, but that evidently wasn't enough to land either it a spot in Ultimate.

yeah but it wasn’t popularity that got whiskers in anyway

 

[osby]

Which of the starter Pokemon's final forms in SM seems to be the most popular?

I know Primarina is extremely popular in Japan, and Decidueye was probably the most talked about at least on this site prior to Ultimate's release, but that evidently wasn't enough to land either it a spot in Ultimate.

Incineroar probably wasn't picked for its popularity either way. Sakurai's explanations made it sound like its grappler theme was what gave it the edge over other options.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

In Japan it seems to be Primarina>Incineroar>Decidueye going off of the Nintendo Dream poll. Globally it's Decidueye>Incineroar>Primarina going off of the Pokemon of the Year poll.

Decidueye was voted the highest out of all 3 last time I checked, but I think all 3 are notably and consistently popular next to each other compared to most of the other starters where 1 of them tends to drop way behind the other 2. I think only Gen 1 and Gen 3 are the only other ones where all 3 Starters are close to each other in popularity.

This really goes to show how varied fan reception to each starter is.

With how Incineroar is usually in the middleground of popularity and the others are usually either the most or least popular depending on the region, I can see why people thought any one of them could've been a likely contender, at least going off of what was known or thought about how Pokemon newcomers were picked at the time.

yeah but it wasn’t popularity that got whiskers in anyway

Incineroar probably wasn't picked for its popularity either way. Sakurai's explanations made it sound like its grappler theme was what gave it the edge over other options.

That's kinda the point I was getting at. Popularity isn't necessarily what gets Pokemon in. I'm sure it's had some influence since Jigglypuff was popular in the anime at the time of the N64, and Mewtwo, Lucario and Greninja were all huge hits with Pokemon fans, but Incineroar was more picked for having potential for a unique playstyle and a fighting style that wasn't in a Smash game yet, and it's varying popularity indicates that fan reception to it had very little to do with it's inclusion. Heck, even in Greninja's case, I believe Sakurai just particularly liked the Pokemon and thought it had potential, IIRC.

Whether we get a Gen 9 Pokemon or any new Pokemon in the next Smash game at all, there's a pretty good chance that popularity will have a minimal effect on one getting in at best.

 

[Noipoi]

Which of the starter Pokemon's final forms in SM seems to be the most popular?

I know Primarina is extremely popular in Japan, and Decidueye was probably the most talked about at least on this site prior to Ultimate's release, but that evidently wasn't enough to land either it a spot in Ultimate.

As it stands, Incineroar and Decidueye are in fairly equal footing. With one edging out over the other at times. The owl is probably more popular overall, but he’s not completely dominating like Greninja does for Gen 6.

Primarina watches from the sidelines with a book and a nice drink.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

To clarify, Incineroar and Greninja were both picked on concept alone, as they hadn't been publicly shown yet.

I think the idea behind the inclusions is to pick Pokémon that would be known by anyone who had been following the series at all:

• Pikachu's the mascot.
• Jigglypuff was big in the anime.
• Pichu was big in the anime on top of being mascot adjacent.
• Mewtwo had the big movie.
• Lucario had the big movie.
• Greninja was a starter, so was definitely going to be in the marketing.
• Incineroar was the same way.

In that sense, the most likely candidates for a Gen 9 character are a starter, Koraidon/Miraidon, or Terapagos, though probably not the latter due to issues with body type.

 

[Quillion]

Why do we still need to debate over whether things are popular when there's now a fairly long list of things that are popularly demanded for Smash and still aren't in (or are done in a very limited way at best)?

Bowser's Castle, Ganondorf getting a more "faithful" moveset, another Zelda one-shot character, an actual Mario spin-off character (mainly Geno or Waluigi), another Sonic character of any kind, Bandana Dee...

We can argue whether Nintendo or Sora Ltd. are out-of-touch with the fans, but the sentiment goes both ways.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

That's kinda the point I was getting at. Popularity isn't necessarily what gets Pokemon in. I'm sure it's had some influence since Jigglypuff was popular in the anime at the time of the N64, and Mewtwo, Lucario and Greninja were all huge hits with Pokemon fans, but Incineroar was more picked for having potential for a unique playstyle and a fighting style that wasn't in a Smash game yet, and it's varying popularity indicates that fan reception to it had very little to do with it's inclusion. Heck, even in Greninja's case, I believe Sakurai just particularly liked the Pokemon and thought it had potential, IIRC.

Whether we get a Gen 9 Pokemon or any new Pokemon in the next Smash game at all, there's a pretty good chance that popularity will have a minimal effect on one getting in at best.

Popularity outside the context Smash is probably why Charizard was priority as a final evolution for Trainer in Brawl and why Charizard alone went solo in Smash 4, but other than that? Not quite influential on a newcomer.

We see this specifically with Greninja and Incineroar, who were decided based on moveset concept alone, with the former even being picked before the public knew about them, with Sakurai going by concept art.

Even Lucario was picked for Brawl around the time his movie was going to be in theaters, well before he would have been a mainstay.

And similar to Mewtwo; Sakurai is on record for stating that he wanted Mewtwo for two reasons; being a movie star and the telekinetic fighting style.


Even Jigglypuff isn't QUITE an "it was popular in the anime" case, as we now know that like with Incineroar vs. Decidueye, Jigglypuff was picked between itself and Clefairy, in this case as a fighter that used Kirby as the base. The anime may have helped, but Clefairy happened to have manga stardom on its resume as well, so it seemed to come down to which one Sakurai felt was the better fit.

 

[Ivander]

We can argue whether Nintendo or Sora Ltd. are out-of-touch with the fans, but the sentiment goes both ways.

So what you're saying is, Nintendo and Sakurai don't know what fans want, but neither do fans know what fans want.

Well, regardless, we have the old sayings, "Fans don't know what they want until it happens" and "Fans don't know how good they had it until it's gone."

 

[KingofPhantoms]

So what you're saying is, Nintendo and Sakurai don't know what fans want, but neither do fans know what fans want.

Well, regardless, we have the old sayings, "Fans don't know what they want until it happens" and "Fans don't know how good they had it until it's gone."

After fans get what they want, they don't want it at all.

 

[Quillion]

So what you're saying is, Nintendo and Sakurai don't know what fans want, but neither do fans know what fans want.

More that fans are out-of-touch with the creators themselves as much as the creators are with fans.

But fans not knowing what fans want is also true;.

 

[Perkilator]

To clarify, Incineroar and Greninja were both picked on concept alone, as they hadn't been publicly shown yet.

I think the idea behind the inclusions is to pick Pokémon that would be known by anyone who had been following the series at all:

• Pikachu's the mascot.
• Jigglypuff was big in the anime.
• Pichu was big in the anime on top of being mascot adjacent.
• Mewtwo had the big movie.
• Lucario had the big movie.
• Greninja was a starter, so was definitely going to be in the marketing.
• Incineroar was the same way.

In that sense, the most likely candidates for a Gen 9 character are a starter, Koraidon/Miraidon, or Terapagos, though probably not the latter due to issues with body type.

Would Tinkaton or Gholdengo be eligible for application this idea? I know Tinkaton is pretty popuar.

 

[fogbadge]

Even Jigglypuff isn't QUITE an "it was popular in the anime" case, as we now know that like with Incineroar vs. Decidueye, Jigglypuff was picked between itself and Clefairy, in this case as a fighter that used Kirby as the base. The anime may have helped, but Clefairy happened to have manga stardom on its resume as well, so it seemed to come down to which one Sakurai felt was the better fit.

was clefairy really almost in smash 64? might i ask you for a source

 

[Shinuto]

I know its just a mod but I love how Smash Remix did on making movesets for its original newcomers in Marina, Conker, Goemon, Ebisumaru, Slippy and Peppy. ignoring the last three as they are auxiliary in this context, who out of Marina, Conker and Goemon have the best shot being a newcomer in official Smash and who make for the most interesting character moveset and personality wise?

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

I know its just a mod but I love how Smash Remix did on making movesets for its original newcomers in Marina, Conker, Goemon, Ebisumaru, Slippy and Peppy. ignoring the last three as they are auxiliary in this context, who out of Marina, Conker and Goemon have the best shot being a newcomer in official Smash and who make for the most interesting character moveset and personality wise?

It has to be Goemon (he's kinda already in Smash) but that's not saying much.

Man I'd love Conker but he'd have to be way too nerfed.

 

[Perkilator]

I know its just a mod but I love how Smash Remix did on making movesets for its original newcomers in Marina, Conker, Goemon, Ebisumaru, Slippy and Peppy. ignoring the last three as they are auxiliary in this context, who out of Marina, Conker and Goemon have the best shot being a newcomer in official Smash and who make for the most interesting character moveset and personality wise?

Probably Goemon, realistically speaking, but I also kinda want Sakurai to stop being a coward and make Dragon King a fighter for real.

 

[SPEN18]

Decidueye is clearly more popular than Incineroar worldwide. The fact that Rowlet is very popular also makes it look much closer than it is; of course you can't conclude that everyone who likes Rowlet also likes Decidueye, but there's definitely at least some splitting of votes going on there.

If we're being honest, Incineroar is only mid-tier in popularity and impact among the starters. The Kanto starters, Blaziken, Sceptile, Greninja, Typhlosion, Decidueye, and at least arguably some others are ahead of Incineroar.

 

[Louie G.]

who out of Marina, Conker and Goemon have the best shot being a newcomer in official Smash and who make for the most interesting character moveset and personality wise?

Best shot? Goemon easily. As stated above he’s already got a presence in the game, and he’s also from… an actual series of games, whereas Marina and Conker effectively have one decades old, moderately successful game each. That isn’t even to get into the legal mumbo jumbo around who even owns Marina, and Conker’s heavy competition and questionable source material. I’d say Goemon is the only one there with any chance at all.

Most interesting? Well, Marina is probably my biggest pipe dream character so I’m inclined to say her. I think her being something of an aerial heavy grappler is pretty distinct and visually she stands out a lot. A Treasure character would be such a cool presence in Smash. But I think any of these three have the potential to be great.

 

[TheQuester]

think part of it is just by proxy - the next game will emphasize more cuts than ever, simply by necessity

To be fair, we don't know if Smash 6 will be built from the ground up (mostly) like Brawl or Smash 4 were or will use the previous game as a base like Ultimate did.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

was clefairy really almost in smash 64? might i ask you for a source

64Dream May 1999 : MyCom : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive

64Dream - May 1999 scanned in at 800DPI with an Epson V550.600dpi PDF was OCR'd with Searchable Text in Adobe Acrobat. This compresses the images to make the...

archive.org

Here's the source.
And here's the relevant paragraph:

ところで、「どうして隠しキャラにプリンが?」っていう意見もあったりするんですが。 / ふつうの格闘ゲームは、基本になる骨格などを一緒に作って、やられるモーションなども使いまわすことができるんです。でも「スマブラ」の場合は基本の8キャラがすべて異なる体型で作られているんですね。その上、やられパターンとか倒れパターン、それに起き上がりら攻撃パターンや崖捕まりパターンなど、それぞれ違う作りをしていて、それらを全て作るのは、ふつうの格闘っていうレベルでみてもすごく大変なことなんです。それで、隠れキャラは基本キャラの骨格を使い回すことを前提にしたんです。なので、ネスとルイージはマリオと同じ骨格でできてるし、ファルコンはサムス、プリンはカービィと一緒というわけなんです。プリンを選んだのはそういった骨格の類似性もありましたが、それとは別に、「人気ポケモンは?」って考えたときに、最後まで残ったのがピッピとプリンだったんですね。カービィ体形でピッピを作ることも可能だったと思いますけど、とりあえずキャラクター的な性格からして、プリンの方がやられ役っぽさがあったので選びました。

Here he talks about how all the secret characters of 64 were designed specifically to borrow an existing fighters' basic structure, which relates to Jigglypuff for reusing Kirby's assets. And how it was down to between Jigglypuff and Clefairy for the role because of their popularity (so I guess popularity did have more influence), with Jigglypuff being chosen because of the whole deliberately weak character thing (the translation is a bit odd here).

 

[Speed Weed]

I know its just a mod but I love how Smash Remix did on making movesets for its original newcomers in Marina, Conker, Goemon, Ebisumaru, Slippy and Peppy. ignoring the last three as they are auxiliary in this context, who out of Marina, Conker and Goemon have the best shot being a newcomer in official Smash and who make for the most interesting character moveset and personality wise?

Goemon by far, and it's not even a debate. Conker has over a dozen other Microsoft-owned properties to compete with at this point who'd all probably get chosen over him, and I love Treasure but Mischief Makers is probably one of their least popular original IP. Goemon isn't exactly a top candidate either, but he's got a foot in the door already and is the only one I feel is remotely on the Smash team's radar

 

[fogbadge]

64Dream May 1999 : MyCom : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive

64Dream - May 1999 scanned in at 800DPI with an Epson V550.600dpi PDF was OCR'd with Searchable Text in Adobe Acrobat. This compresses the images to make the...

archive.org

Here's the source.
And here's the relevant paragraph:




Here he talks about how all the secret characters of 64 were designed specifically to borrow an existing fighters' basic structure, which relates to Jigglypuff for reusing Kirby's assets. And how it was down to between Jigglypuff and Clefairy for the role because of their popularity (so I guess popularity did have more influence), with Jigglypuff being chosen because of the whole deliberately weak character thing (the translation is a bit odd here).

cheers, this is a good thing to know

 

[Ivander]

who out of Marina, Conker and Goemon have the best shot being a newcomer in official Smash and who make for the most interesting character moveset and personality wise?

Goemon. Has a series of games, has appeared in Smash Bros Ultimate as a Mii Costume and was recently acknowledged by Sakurai in his Year of 1986 video. While Conker himself is arguably more tame compared to the rest of his game, he's less popular compared to Banjo & Kazooie and he still comes from a game that Nintendo themselves had issue and concern with(like no acknowledgement from Nintendo Power, Nintendo of Europe refusing to publish it in Europe, etc). Not to mention competing with the likes of other Microsoft(or in some cases, Now Microsoft) characters like Crash Bandicoot, Master Chief, Doomguy, Dragonborn, etc.
Marina is also very unlikely because of her game being quite niche and because Mischief Makers may or may not belong to Enix/Square Enix, of whom already has a frick' ton of IPs and characters people want in Smash. And even then, some of Treasure's other games like Gunstar Heroes and Sin & Punishment are more likelier to be picked than her.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

To be honest, I think that Conker wouldn't have had much of a chance even if Rare had stayed with Nintendo. You could sanitize him a bit, but you kinda lose the point of the character, and Rare has a quite a bunch of other characters that just fit in better.

 

[DarthEnderX]

who out of Marina, Conker and Goemon have the best shot being a newcomer in official Smash

Goemon.

who make for the most interesting character moveset

Goemon.

and personality wise?

Goemon.

To be honest, I think that Conker wouldn't have had much of a chance even if Rare had stayed with Nintendo. You could sanitize him a bit, but you kinda lose the point of the character

You know Conker didn't actually start out that way, right? He's was in 2 games before Bad Fur Day. Diddy Kong Racing and Conker's Pocket Tales and he was not at all an M-rated character in those games.

Nintendo doesn't have to sanitize him. They just have to roll him back to an earlier incarnation.

 

[pitchfulprocessing]

I remember thinking Incineroar was a weird pick when they were first revealed, though that opinion was definitely also partially influenced by the context of everything going on at the time in the community. In retrospect I think they were a fun choice. Every game needs a wrestler, and while Smash and traditional fighters are obviously very different, especially in the context of movement options, Incineroar is the closest we have to the archetypal fighting game wrestler, in a way that makes him a lot of fun to play and stand out a lot on the roster. I think a lot of the arguments about like who's the most significant from the gen don't really matter a ton anyways. In most cases, any of the big Pokemon will be popular enough to work. Incineroar is a starter, meaning he by default gets a huge promotional and merchandising push. I think fussing over "well this guy got pushed even more if you look at anime appearances" can be relevant sometimes but can also be missing the big picture.

I know its just a mod but I love how Smash Remix did on making movesets for its original newcomers in Marina, Conker, Goemon, Ebisumaru, Slippy and Peppy. ignoring the last three as they are auxiliary in this context, who out of Marina, Conker and Goemon have the best shot being a newcomer in official Smash and who make for the most interesting character moveset and personality wise?

Goemon would be the most likely for the reasons said above, I'd love Marina though. She'd also probably be a really fun take on a grappler, I like how Remix did her moveset.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

You know Conker didn't actually start out that way, right? He's was in 2 games before Bad Fur Day. Diddy Kong Racing and Conker's Pocket Tales and he was not at all an M-rated character in those games.

Nintendo doesn't have to sanitize him. They just have to roll him back to an earlier incarnation.

But that's not the Conker that people love and remember.

 

[PeridotGX]

Smash Bros is probably the best video game crossover of all time, but it has competition - Fortnite is hot on it's trail. That got me wondering - what FN characters are likely to be in the next Smash game? I'm only looking at the Gaming Legends series, because I have a hunch they won't add Ariana Grande or Han Solo anytime soon. Jonesy is there to represent the idea of Fortnite itself being added. Tiers are mostly ordered, with the exeption of Jonesy (he would be before Raiden) and Alan Wake (he would probably be before generic goat)

 

[Ivander]

Conker in Bad Fur Day wasn't even that offensive a character. He definitely had offensive moments, with getting drunk and outright peeing on other characters, but aside from those, he was arguably one of the least offensive characters in his own game. He can still retain his 4th wall breaking, his context sensitive shenanigans and most of his dark humor and the two moments above can easily be left out without impacting his character.
I mean, even the chainsaw he uses for the N64 logo may not even be much of an issue considering they've been slowly laxing on the gun portrayal, Corrin has a chainsaw sword and we have Bayonetta's Final Smash, as well as Ridley and Kazuya having some notably painful attacks and being able to use them on innocent characters.

 

[pitchfulprocessing]

Alan Wake is honestly a top-tier Smash pick, though Jesse Faden from Control definitely lends herself to a moveset better lol. We should get a Sakurai/Sam Lake interview.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

Conker in Bad Fur Day wasn't even that offensive a character. He definitely had offensive moments, with getting drunk and outright peeing on other characters, but aside from those, he was arguably one of the least offensive characters in his own game. He can still retain his 4th wall breaking, his context sensitive shenanigans and most of his dark humor and the two moments above can easily be left out without impacting his character.
I mean, even the chainsaw he uses for the N64 logo may not even be much of an issue considering they've been slowly laxing on the gun portrayal, Corrin has a chainsaw sword and we have Bayonetta's Final Smash, as well as Ridley and Kazuya having some notably painful attacks and being able to use them on innocent characters.

I mostly agree, but that attack you mentioned under spoilers not being Conker's version of FLUDD would just be sad.