Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Shroob]

I always thought the reason Nintendo pushed DQ XI S so hard was because they were the publisher for international releases of the game.

I mean, the game had already come out, Nintendo was just given the "Definitive edition" of it, DQ11 had long been out in the west by that point, and Nintendo wouldn't go five minutes without reminding us "HEY GUYS, LOOK, DRAGON QUEST!"

Which is more or less the exact same thing they did with Trials of Mana, hell, pretty sure you can find posts in this very thread of people jokingly suggesting that the reason Nintendo was pushing ToM soo hard was due to a DQ11s-like scenario.


I don't buy this one bit. ToM was not this astronomical guess, and frankly, Octopath spirit event has nothing to do with it. We've seen games get Spirit events with nothing related to Smash, like Resident Evil 4, River City Ransom, why is Octopath different? Because it's Square and "Hurr durr Square's greedy?"


I don't think "Square is greedy" as much as "Square doesn't own the rights to their music so they have to get a 3rd party(the music rights owner) involved in talks of Smash." We got Advent Children Cloud(Which, iirc, had never been in a game before I think), a bevy of summons on Midgar, and 4 different Heroes, alongside a metric ****ton of Dragon Quest references. The "greedy" claim only holds weight towards the music, and even then there's a logical explanation.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

There does seem to be a gradual increase of elements by SE in Smash as time goes on. Cloud was big, but was the bare minimum in songs (and later spirits), Dragon Quest was much more thorough as a complete package, and now we're seeing things like Octopath & ToM get some small presence in the game, despite the lack of actual fighters with them. While the typical Square contractual silliness is likely still a bit in effect, Smash's value of as a promotional/showcasing tool seems more apparent the longer things go.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

We got Advent Children Cloud(Which, iirc, had never been in a game before I think)

Advent Children is a movie.

I don't think "Square is greedy" as much as "Square doesn't own the rights to their music so they have to get a 3rd party(the music rights owner) involved in talks of Smash." We got Advent Children Cloud(Which, iirc, had never been in a game before I think), a bevy of summons on Midgar, and 4 different Heroes, alongside a metric ****ton of Dragon Quest references. The "greedy" claim only holds weight towards the music, and even then there's a logical explanation.

Artists also own their art, iirc.

Heck, I'm pretty sure the only thing about any game that Square actually owns is the source code and that's it. Everything else belongs to whoever made it.

 

[Shroob]

Advent Children is a movie.


Artists also own their art, iirc.

Heck, I'm pretty sure the only thing about any game that Square actually owns is the source code and that's it.

Yes, I know Advent Children was a movie. That doesn't really take away from the point I was trying to make, if anything, that strengthens it. Unless there's a DIssidia game or Mobile game I'm missing, wasn't Smash 4 the first time Advent Children Cloud was in an actual game? I'd hardly call that "Stingy", if anything, that's pretty damn cool.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

wasn't Smash 4 the first time Advent Children Cloud was in an actual game?

It's been in pretty much everything but FF7. Even Kingdom Hearts has it.

 

[PK Duststorm]

Someone from the cult classic Super Nintendo Entertainment System video game EVO: Search for Eden
View attachment 292601
Honestly, I doubt it'll get any acknowledgement from Smash. I just felt like bringing it up just because I could.

I love this game! Bring it to the NSo service please Nintendo. Grew up watching roundthewheel play this.

 

[Shroob]

It's been in pretty much everything but FF7. Even Kingdom Hearts has it.

Fair enough, but still, the fact that we got it seems like they gave enough of a **** to give a little more than the bare minimum, including the various summons from Midgar+the Chocobo hat.


I've parroted the "Square is stingy" gambit myself in the past, but honestly, as time goes on, I really, really don't buy it anymore. Between Dragon Quest's arguably amazing representation, two Spirit events for completely different games, etc, yes, the music sucks, but that's really the only bad thing I can say about them anymore, and I at least understand why.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Yeah, Square themselves aren't stingy.

A lot of the people they hire are.

 

[Perkilator]

Yeah, Square themselves aren't stingy.

A lot of the people they hire are.

(coughsugiyamacough)

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Between stuff like the various contractual difficulties with their own composers and losing the source code of their games SE as a developer at times embodies Hanlon's Razor "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence."

 

[SharkLord]

I love this game! Bring it to the NSo service please Nintendo. Grew up watching roundthewheel play this.

I found it from someone's forum Let's Play through sheer luck because evolution was the %$#@ when I was little. It's been in the back of my mind ever since because I just find evolution neat. A modernized, expanded remake of it would be nice.

 

[QQS]

How do people here see the chances of having a reveal soon rather than 2021? And what characters do you expect in the remaining spots?

 

[Deleted member]

How do people here see the chances of having a reveal soon rather than 2021?

Soon enough for people on twitter to try to ratio the announcement with a Free Melee tweet



but other than that, December's possible. Maybe not during TGAs, but potentially the week after.

 

[Shroob]

How do people here see the chances of having a reveal soon rather than 2021? And what characters do you expect in the remaining spots?

I don't think it's impossible.

We hit somewhere in the late-70's/early 80 days since Steve came out late next month, and the time between "It's Arms!" and "It's MinMin!" was exactly 88 days.


If anything, the absolute latest I see is mid-late January, since that'll put us into the MinMin-Steve gap of 100 days, but anything past that is anyone's guess, and officially the longest wait between.

 

[MooMew64]

I'm gonna be doing a bigger write up on my thoughts about his chances soon here, but what do people here think about Ryu Hayabusa? Does him not being directly next hurt his chances in your eyes, or do the close KT and Nintendo ties give him more than just rumors on his side?

 

[Shroob]

I will say, if there is a TGA reveal, it's now or never.


I do not see us going until December of next year to finish the DLC if there really are only 4 characters left, and we're expecting one within the next 2~ months, so this is 'probably' the last chance Smash has at a TGA reveal, barring either an EXTREMELY long gap between characters 5 and 6, or somehow a 3rd wave of DLC.


"But they said it'd be done by December 31st!"

Yes, it will be. December 31st is a placeholder date. The DLC will 100% be done before December 31st, but that doesn't mean it'll take until December to finish either.

 

[Commander_Alph]

I'm gonna be doing a bigger write up on my thoughts about his chances soon here, but what do people here think about Ryu Hayabusa?

I'm still iffy about Hayabusa getting bring up all of the sudden just because of a leak and people always pcik him for the safest bet, thought I expected more with the OG Warriors series being represented as a fighter first. Though Hayabusa gives me the vibes of Bomberman for some reason due to how well known the series is in the public eye but for the company it's not really that special.

 

[Megadoomer]

How do people here see the chances of having a reveal soon rather than 2021? And what characters do you expect in the remaining spots?

I'm not sure about a 2020 reveal. It seems like it would make sense to have a Direct or some kind of presentation before Black Friday, to give people an idea of what to expect for next year (and to encourage people to buy a Switch if they haven't already), since Nintendo's 2021 schedule (aside from a re-release of Mario 3D World) is once again a giant question mark, but Nintendo doesn't always make sense.

As for whether or not it would have a character reveal, I don't know; these things tend to have a gap of at least three months between them, but there have been exceptions.

For my expectations, I've posted them before, but I'm guessing (in no particular order) Geno, Dante (or Monster Hunter - Capcom seems downright eager to get their properties in Smash, while a company like Namco-Bandai seems oddly hesitant, and both franchises seem to be at new heights in terms of their popularity), Ryu Hayabusa, and Impa (or another Nintendo character; I just figure that we're long overdue for a new Zelda character, next year is Zelda's 35th anniversary, and Impa's prominence in Age of Calamity might give her the edge).

Geno and Ryu Hayabusa are the two that I'm most confident about, though even then, it's hard to be sure - aside from a Dragon Quest character, the DLC hasn't exactly been predictable for me. (I wanted to see Banjo-Kazooie and Terry make it in at some point, but I figured Microsoft wouldn't cooperate, and I didn't think we'd get Terry until much later, if at all)

 

[MooMew64]

I will say, if there is a TGA reveal, it's now or never.


I do not see us going until December of next year to finish the DLC if there really are only 4 characters left, and we're expecting one within the next 2~ months, so this is 'probably' the last chance Smash has at a TGA reveal, barring either an EXTREMELY long gap between characters 5 and 6, or somehow a 3rd wave of DLC.


"But they said it'd be done by December 31st!"

Yes, it will be. December 31st is a placeholder date. The DLC will 100% be done before December 31st, but that doesn't mean it'll take until December to finish either.

I'm kinda thinking it's a wash if nothing leaks or there's no indication of major Nintendo presence a day or two before, TBH. Especially if there's no signs the morning of? I'm gonna hold my expectations really low in that scenario, personally.

 

[SharkLord]

How do people here see the chances of having a reveal soon rather than 2021? And what characters do you expect in the remaining spots?

Maybe. My expected date is anywhere between December and January; November's a bit too soon and February sounds a bit longer than usual. If it's December, a TGA reveal would be logical, but it feels like I've been getting conflicting information on if those are supposed to be recurring or not.

At this point I've given up trying to make accurate predictions and have just decided to support characters I want and drop memes in between.

 

[chocolatejr9]

How do people here see the chances of having a reveal soon rather than 2021? And what characters do you expect in the remaining spots?

Not impossible, though it gets less likely as time goes on.

As for who I expect, I honestly can't say. For first parties, I think Rex and Euden are pretty safe bets, though nobody ever talks about the latter. Third parties, though, I'm less certain. I used to think Level-5 was likely, but the recent issues with them make me... concerned, to say the least. Maybe someone from Koei Tecmo or even Nippon Ichi, but honestly... I can't make a safe bet.

 

[QQS]

Hope that we can see the next one in December + more First Party games coming. Also, hope that we all can get our characters playable! I’m rooting for my long-most wanted Geno; and also I think the rest are between Hayabusa, Crash, Lloyd, Rayman. A huge and epic surprise could be another from Zelda; and another from Sonic, between Tails or Eggman!

Best wishes!

 

[Shroob]

I'm not sure about a 2020 reveal. It seems like it would make sense to have a Direct or some kind of presentation before Black Friday, to give people an idea of what to expect for next year (and to encourage people to buy a Switch if they haven't already), since Nintendo's 2021 schedule (aside from a re-release of Mario 3D World) is once again a giant question mark, but Nintendo doesn't always make sense.

As for whether or not it would have a character reveal, I don't know; these things tend to have a gap of at least three months between them, but there have been exceptions.

For my expectations, I've posted them before, but I'm guessing (in no particular order) Geno, Dante (or Monster Hunter - Capcom seems downright eager to get their properties in Smash, while a company like Namco-Bandai seems oddly hesitant, and both franchises seem to be at new heights in terms of their popularity), Ryu Hayabusa, and Impa (or another Nintendo character; I just figure that we're long overdue for a new Zelda character, and Impa's prominence in Age of Calamity might give her the edge).

Geno and Ryu Hayabusa are the two that I'm most confident about, though even then, it's hard to be sure - aside from a Dragon Quest character, the DLC hasn't exactly been predictable for me. (I wanted to see Banjo-Kazooie and Terry make it in at some point, but I figured Microsoft wouldn't cooperate, and I didn't think we'd get Terry until much later, if at all)

I mean, Nintendo doesn't really do November Directs outside of game-specific ones, or really brief minis. The last time we got a November one was 2018, which was a mini and before that was all the way back in 2014, which was a normal Direct, this is, of course, ignoring game-specific ones. They usually do September > early next year.

 

[Megadoomer]

I'm gonna be doing a bigger write up on my thoughts about his chances soon here, but what do people here think about Ryu Hayabusa? Does him not being directly next hurt his chances in your eyes, or do the close KT and Nintendo ties give him more than just rumors on his side?

I wasn't aware that there were any rumours referring to him being part of Challenger Pack 8, but between Koei-Tecmo being close enough to Nintendo to work on multiple Nintendo spin-offs and at least one main entry in a franchise (Fire Emblem: Three Houses) and Ninja Gaiden's long history, I'd be surprised if Ryu Hayabusa wasn't included in Smash Ultimate's DLC at some point.

I mean, Nintendo doesn't really do November Directs outside of game-specific ones, or really brief minis. The last time we got a November one was 2018, which was a mini and before that was all the way back in 2014, which was a normal Direct, this is, of course, ignoring game-specific ones. They usually do September > early next year.

That's fair; I didn't look into when previous Nintendo Directs had aired when I typed that up.

 

[Goombaic]

How do people here see the chances of having a reveal soon rather than 2021? And what characters do you expect in the remaining spots?

I'm not too optimistic for another 2020 reveal, and I assume a majority of people share the same opinion. As for who I expect, I'll be shocked if Hayabusa and Toxtricity aren't in. Sylux and BotW Zelda are still among my predictions.

 

[Shroob]

I'm not too optimistic for another 2020 reveal, and I assume a majority of people share the same opinion. As for I expect, I'll be shocked if Hayabusa and Toxtricity aren't in. Sylux and BotW Zelda are still among my predictions.

I think more people are on the train of:


"It's possible, but not banking on it".


If we get into late-January, we start breaking records in regards to wait times between characters, which is a little concerning.

 

[Perkilator]

How do people here see the chances of having a reveal soon rather than 2021? And what characters do you expect in the remaining spots?

Not impossible, but I wouldn’t exactly (how do I put this?) get your hopes up too high; I’m basically tempering my expectations.

Speaking of which, I don’t necessarily expect any characters for the last 4 slots, but I’m still holding onto hope for Sora and/or Crash (either one).

 

[Commander_Alph]

I'm going to bet that Hayabusa will be a mii Costume no matter what people thought of him being likely. He's basically the new Bomberman, people expecting him to be added just because he has a 'long history' and always claiming he is the front and center of the company, and guess what he's an assist plus a mii costume and this could apply to Hayabusa anytime due to how basic his design is.


People always forget that these spin-offs game that KT made with Nintendo are all tied into the Warriors game, with the new installment of the OG series going to be released sometime in early 2021 is pretty odd to reveal Hayabusa when KT is on a spree with the Warriors game.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I think a repeat of Byleth with a Smash video in early January followed by a gradual rollout of Nintendo reveals once a week (ala August/September) feels entirely possible.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

pic.twitter.com/OLilM8iY6o

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) November 24, 2020

t r i p p y

 

[Shroob]

I think a repeat of Byleth with a Smash video in early January followed by a gradual rollout of Nintendo reveals once a week (ala August/September) feels entirely possible.

Byleth is such a mysterious case.


There's enough reasonable doubt to believe that they were meant to be revealed in December due to ****ery with the Spirit events/Tournies exactly like what happened with Steve

But then they dropped January


What happened is a mystery.

 

[MooMew64]

Byleth is such a mysterious case.


There's enough reasonable doubt to believe that they were meant to be revealed in December due to ****ery with the Spirit events/Tournies exactly like what happened with Steve

But then they dropped January


What happened is a mystery.

Would've fit right in with Fire Emblem winning an award, too.

It's really weird they didn't do it.

 

[pupNapoleon]

So... according to Smash speculation rules-
the new game Tomb Raider: Reloaded
means Lara Croft is in Smash!

 

[KillerCage]

How do people here see the chances of having a reveal soon rather than 2021? And what characters do you expect in the remaining spots?

20%
Definitely possible, but not likely.

 

[pupNapoleon]

“The Switch will be a 3rd Pillar console to our business. This will not effect 3DS or Wii U”

RIP Wii U
RIP 3DS

Was this actually said? I distinctly remember the phrase being used for the DS when it launched while the GBA and GC were out- but I don't at all recall this being said for the Switch.

I don't think it's impossible.

We hit somewhere in the late-70's/early 80 days since Steve came out late next month, and the time between "It's Arms!" and "It's MinMin!" was exactly 88 days.


If anything, the absolute latest I see is mid-late January, since that'll put us into the MinMin-Steve gap of 100 days, but anything past that is anyone's guess, and officially the longest wait between.

Wait... why are ARMS and Min Min counted as two separate reveals?

 

[Shroob]

Was this actually said? I distinctly remember the phrase being used for the DS when it launched while the GBA and GC were out- but I don't at all recall this being said for the Switch.


Wait... why are ARMS and Min Min counted as two separate reveals?

Because we knew it was ARMs, we didn't know who until 3 months later.


We've debated this in the past and we just went in circles, best not to start this again rofl

 

[Ivander]

How do people here see the chances of having a reveal soon rather than 2021? And what characters do you expect in the remaining spots?

I'd say it's a 50% chance for a reveal before 2021 and a 50% chance for a reveal in 2021.

And at this point, I'm not sure which characters to expect for the remaining spots.

 

[pupNapoleon]

Hope that we can see the next one in December + more First Party games coming. Also, hope that we all can get our characters playable! I’m rooting for my long-most wanted Geno; and also I think the rest are between Hayabusa, Crash, Lloyd, Rayman. A huge and epic surprise could be another from Zelda; and another from Sonic, between Tails or Eggman!

Best wishes!

That is a sweet sentiment--- but I have a spreadsheet with 120+ characters, and at least 25 are rated with a 5/5 for want.

 

[Playstation Guy 1000]

How do people here see the chances of having a reveal soon rather than 2021?

it's a 50/50 at this point.

 

[pupNapoleon]

I don't think there is much likelihood in getting any Nintendo information in December, short of smaller announcements. It's a rare month for the company, and in general with releases- which usually come by mid November.