Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Hydreigonfan01]

Point me to a high degree of demand from Japanese fans and I'll admit I'm wrong. It's certainly not on 2ch where other characters completely dominate the conversation.

This is a worldwide poll, but it mentions that Geno was tied for 3rd in Japan alongside Banjo and Paper Mario.

 

[N3ON]

Many Geno fans just overstate Geno's qualities. The only one in which he excels is a very specific kind of popularity.

But it's what happens when character threads, which very quickly can become echo chambers, become a certain size. People easily get carried away. There are certain unique factors which have exacerbated the problem, but it's not the first thread to go down this path, generally.

It's an innate but unavoidable issue with the way Smashboards is set up. It's a double-edged sword, really.

If people see that opinion as malicious, that's very unfortunate, but I was a mod here during Smash 4 - I dealt with the Ridley thread, I tried my best to helm the Isaac thread, I was present in the Banjo thread during the lead up to his reveal, I'm familiar with the Geno thread, and I know it to be the truth.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

This is a worldwide poll, but it mentions that Geno was tied for 3rd in Japan alongside Banjo and Paper Mario.View attachment 282643

Man, Isaac got the short end of the stick.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Many Geno fans just overstate Geno's qualities. The only one in which he excels is a very specific kind of popularity.

But it's what happens when character threads, which very quickly can become echo chambers, become a certain size. People easily get carried away. There are certain unique factors which have exacerbated the problem, but it's not the first thread to go down this path, generally.

It's an innate but unavoidable issue with the way Smashboards is set up. It's a double-edged sword, really.

If people see that opinion as malicious, that's very unfortunate, but I was a mod here during Smash 4 - I dealt with the Ridley thread, I tried my best to helm the Isaac thread, I was present in the Banjo thread during the lead up to his reveal, I'm familiar with the Geno thread, and I know it to be the truth.

I can also speak to this as a former mod myself.

As somebody who was only here starting with Wii U/3DS, K.Rool, Ridley, and Isaac really stand out to me in terms of having a large following at that point. Geno seemed to reignite when the Mii Costume was revealed.

But from what I distinctly remember, fans in each thread largely considered their character as a lock. Yet none of them became playable. But that's what happens if you interaction with the discourse is only with folks who speak positively about the chances of a character, and that's why it's so important to have diverse perspectives.

I think Geno is a cool character, and he's had one of the longer standing fanbases to speak of. But collectively, all he has going for him, currently, is the fan support and a statement from Sakurai, with Nintendo having greater selection power than they normally would. If Sakurai doesn't have complete selection power like he used to, then that means he would need to convince Nintendo to go that way, and I think that's the tough sell. That is, of course, unless they specifically choose him as a "hardcore fan" pick.

It doesn't mean he's not going to happen, but he's far from a guarantee regardless of the circumstantial evidence anybody wants to put forward supporting him. Unless there's a verified leak, most predictions or "theories" should be taken with a rather large grain of salt.

It should also be noted that online forums represent a rather small percentage of the overall fanbase. Ridley and K.Rool definitely broke out into the larger fanbase, and that's something that Geno is, I think, actually similar in. Even if some folks think it's a "meme" and don't take it seriously, it's something that has been at least slightly picked up on in mainstream Smash discourse so I think that's potentially notable.

 

[cashregister9]

This is a worldwide poll, but it mentions that Geno was tied for 3rd in Japan alongside Banjo and Paper Mario.View attachment 282643

This poll is very old and If I Recall it is also very fake.

 

[cosmicB]

Ah, so this is about saying that Geno is a fan favorite and/or the last of the big requests from Brawl. Well, we need to be honest with ourselves here.

Not every character is requested equally. Some characters are wanted more than others, and Geno is at the top of that request list. I mentioned it in my list of talking points, but there isn't a single Square character more requested than Geno other than perhaps Sora, who has his own issues. When it comes to non-Square characters, there still aren't many who are more requested, especially not within the Smash community.

What's your metric for this? Posts on an internet forum that represents 0.01% of the Smash Ultimate userbase? Internet polls that make up an even smaller percentage? A vague statement by Sakurai who also admitted in the same interview that his reason for wanting Geno is the fact he has a gun arm?

Sure, Arle has demand, but did you forget that Geno was highly requested back in the day in Japan? Just because he doesn't quite top polls now (official ones by the way, of which there are way less than unofficial polls, and even then polls tend to be inaccurate for a number of reasons) doesn't mean Japanese Smash fans don't want him anymore. It just means there are newer characters that Japan loves a lot is all.

Give me a source on this, because the only thing supporting this is a super small poll that had Sora and Dante blowing everyone else out of the water.

Saying that a character or a group of characters is the most requested and therefore should get in isn't reductive of other characters, it's simply telling things how it is. Is saying that Pikachu, Charizard, Mewtwo and Lucario are the most popular Pokemon and thus should get into most Pokemon games reductive of the other 800 some Pokemon? No, it's simply stating that there are favorites and those should be catered to if the devs care about how the fans feel. Not everyone can be a winner, not everyone can be the most requested, and if you have to pick between the most requested and the second or third most requested, if at all possible I feel like you would pick the most requested. It pleases the largest amount of people, which is something you should want to do.

You're literally using examples that weren't in every Pokemon entry. So I guess TPC/Gamefreak doesn't care about their fans?

Ayumi sounds like a Takumaru case, which I find personally sad because I'd like to see more Japan-exclusive stuff ship overseas. Neither of these compare to Geno though, who has worldwide Smash demand, albeit only within the Smash fanbase and not so much outside it.

No, he has North American demand and a tiny bit of western Europe and Australia demand. South America, Asia, etc, he's an epic shrug at most.

Also you are incorrect about Twintelle: Ms. Thicc was beaten by both Min Min and Ninjara in the official favorite character poll they did, those two being the most popular female and male character respectively. Sure, I mentioned polls are often inaccurate, but Min Min's reception seems to suggest that isn't the case here. All Twintelle really had going for her as far as I saw was being THIIICCCCC and being a minority group representative, neither of which were enough for either the poll nor Smash it would seem.

You can look at Google trends and other metrics to see where Twintelle stands compared to Ninjara worldwide, and it isn't in favor of the ninja whose popularity is mostly limited to Japan.

Oh, and no, I'm not some cult worshiper of Fatmanonice. That doesn't exist and is just something you made up in your mind to appease your own narrative of Geno fans. He's a solid dude that I can't wait to duke it out with when Geno inevitably becomes playable who has loved the character for roughly as long as I have, but I often encourage people to remember that what he says is his opinion with information he is given that is mixed with personal conjecture and not true reliable leaks. He's leaked a few things, but he's also been massively wrong, but he's not really a leaker so there you go.

Could have fooled me seeing as your saying a lot of the same stuff, right down to allegedly having information you can't share and being 100% sure Geno is coming.

Also, if all my points can be argued against, why did you only argue against one or two?

Give me some time and I'll do it in another post. I'll even add my own points against Geno, like the Corrin Min Min spirit.

Also, I can't believe you think Lloyd is purely Western-centric when Tales Of is big in Japan and they are actively trying to promote and increase player base over here. You know, I've heard there is a game you can get your character in that will help with that...

You know who the Tales character Japan wants? Yuri. Their response to the Lloyd demand is literally "why Lloyd?" Are there people in Japan that want him? Sure, just like every character. That doesn't mean he isn't considered a baffling pick over there compared to other Tales protagonists like the most popular, Yuri, the og protagonist, Cless, or the newest protagonists Velvet or Alphen.

 

[N3ON]

Man, Isaac got the short end of the stick.

You could point to many different, notable polls over the course of the last decade in which Isaac is either first, second, sometimes third (including the 40k votes megapoll) - and not only has that amounted simply to basically just getting Brawl content back, but apparently he can't even make the cut in the (fundamentally flawed) popular-requests-since-Brawl club.

 

[cosmicB]

This is a worldwide poll, but it mentions that Geno was tied for 3rd in Japan alongside Banjo and Paper Mario.View attachment 282643

I said high degree, not a poll with weird methodology and a small sample size. IIRC, this is the poll where Geno got like 50 votes. You really want to flex a poll where Magolor beat him?

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Thats the good thing about the Layton and I think, the sora threads. There are so little people there that we don't become Echo chambers. It also helps that we don't have a thing of having a user we think of as a leader.

 

[CannonStreak]

Many Geno fans just overstate Geno's qualities. The only one in which he excels is a very specific kind of popularity.

But it's what happens when character threads, which very quickly can become echo chambers, become a certain size. People easily get carried away. There are certain unique factors which have exacerbated the problem, but it's not the first thread to go down this path, generally.

It's an innate but unavoidable issue with the way Smashboards is set up. It's a double-edged sword, really.

If people see that opinion as malicious, that's very unfortunate, but I was a mod here during Smash 4 - I dealt with the Ridley thread, I tried my best to helm the Isaac thread, I was present in the Banjo thread during the lead up to his reveal, I'm familiar with the Geno thread, and I know it to be the truth.

Not doubting you, but I must ask: what are those qualities?

 

[SharkLord]

Thats the good thing about the Layton and I think, the sora threads. There are so little people there that we don't become Echo chambers. It also helps that we don't have a thing of the user we think of as a leader.

In general, if your character becomes too popular, they get deemed as overrated. In some ways, it's better to have a smaller pick.

You could point to many different, notable polls over the course of the last decade in which Isaac is either first, second, sometimes third (including the 40k votes megapoll) - and not only has that amounted simply to basically just getting Brawl content back, but apparently he can't even make the cut in the (fundamentally flawed) popular-requests-since-Brawl club.

View attachment 282646

Don't worry, Isaac. I'm sticking with you 'till the end. He'll be the fan-favorite of the pass; I'll scream it into the void until Sakurai comes down and says "NO" to us all.

 

[RetroBro]

Point me to a high degree of demand from Japanese fans and I'll admit I'm wrong. It's certainly not on 2ch where other characters completely dominate the conversation.

There are plenty of polls over the past 2 decades that have featured him top 20, 10, even top 5, ect ect from exclusively Japan. His popularity isn't just nestled into the corners of Smashboards, if you think that, you might want to explore the internet a bit more. Obviously popularity fluctuateswith time, but he's a name that's common in almost every poll within the US and Japan.

These are some random Japanese polls from the past few years I found real quick on google. You can nit pick details if you want, for example the date of which these polls have taken place, or the number of people voting, but Japan definitely knows who Geno is and plenty of Japanese people love Super Mario RPG LotSS. Geno isn't western centric.

Geno Top 15:

Sora Named "Most Wanted" Smash Bros. Ultimate DLC Fighter In Recent Japanese Poll

Dante was the runner-up

www.nintendolife.com

Geno Top 15:

https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/944/652/207.png

Geno Top 10:

imgur.com

28882 views on Imgur: The magic of the Internet

imgur.com

Geno Top 5:

https://s.inside-games.jp/article/2018/11/24/118908.html

Geno Top 3:

https://preview.redd.it/stdxc741aog11.png?width=960&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=ebcbc1e63b51ed69bc302e4dfc51689422bf88f8

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

id suggest stop using fan polls as proof of stuff

 

[N3ON]

Not doubting you, but I must ask: what are those qualities?

Importance (both within his series and to Nintendo/Square generally), legacy, moveset potential (which of course he has, but so does basically every character), popularity/recognition among those other than the diehard online contingent of the fanbase. Even Sakurai favouritism.

It's all overblown.

 

[Ayumi Tachibana]

I won't say Geno isn't popular in Japan, in fact he still has strong followers. But not as many as people from Geno thread say so.
The Japanese votes you can see through any Western polls are from hardcore smash speculators who are always following the Western speculation scenes. Those are mostly from 5chan speculation thread and the followers of Musekinin Otoko (I say he is an equivalent of Fatmanonice in the Japanese speculation scene) from Twitter.
Their wants and the wants from the real Japanese audiences aren't the same.

 

[Miles of SmashWiki]

Look, obviously Square Enix is going to have a change of heart about one of their most neglected characters, from an all-star collaboration JRPG they made back in the 90s that's considered one of the greatest games of all time, but a title they have neglected in the many years since. They're gonna revive the character through Smash, and fans will rejoice. Sakurai knows what he's doing, too; he wouldn't neglect giving this game its due justice any longer.

Spoiler

Oh, who did you think I meant?

 

[Dalek_Kolt]

In general, if your character becomes too popular, they get deemed as overrated. In some ways, it's better to have a smaller pick.

I'd sorely want to agree, but it'd at least be nice to hear other people talking about your characters. I've seen myself quadrupleposting on the Ganon/Dark Matter threads just because it's an echo chamber consisting solely of one person.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Look, obviously Square Enix is going to have a change of heart about one of their most neglected characters, from an all-star collaboration JRPG they made back in the 90s that's considered one of the greatest games of all time, but a title they have neglected in the many years since. They're gonna revive the character through Smash, and fans will rejoice. Sakurai knows what he's doing, too; he wouldn't neglect giving this game its due justice any longer.

Spoiler

Oh, who did you think I meant?

Wrong spiky orange haired youth

 

[CannonStreak]

Importance (both within his series and to Nintendo/Square generally), legacy, moveset potential (which of course he has, but so does basically every character), popularity/recognition among those other than the diehard online contingent of the fanbase. Even Sakurai favouritism.

It's all overblown.

Ah.

Geno isn’t important as characters like R.O.B. and others like Mario himself and Sonic, not even in the same way. Plus, Sakurai favoritism can only do so much. I am sure he wanted Geno in, but He has other things to consider when adding characters in Smash, like impacts on the gaming world or other important things. Liking Geno is not enough, or he would have added him now. I am also sure he has taken those other things into consideration and realize that Geno is not that big in many ways over time. That is probably why Geno is not in yet, if at all.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Wrong spiky orange haired youth
View attachment 282648

wrong spiky haired boy

 

[ZelDan]

While on the subject of Isaac's popularity. You also can't forget that he probably did incredibly well in the Smash 4 ballot, considering Smash 4 ballot exit data and the amount of content that Golden Sun got in Ultimate's base game. I feel like Isaac's performance on the Smash 4 ballot probably had a hand in GS getting alot of said base game content

 

[cosmicB]

• He is the last of the really big Brawl picks. This is good for him because Ultimate has been seemingly hyped-focused on characters that meet this criteria.

I think I and others have already explained why this is wrong.

He's still a fan favorite to this day, and one of the biggest ones even now with all these new characters people are falling in love with. This is good for him because Sakurai is specifically trying to cater to fans with the DLC.

What evidence is there that Sakurai is specifically catering to always-online vocal fans? Because as it stands, literally 1 of 6 DLC characters fits that trend. And no, don't tell me stuff like "insiders heard" this or that because that means literally nothing.

Square Enix already have a playable character for their two top series, Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest. Of course they have other games people love, but Geno easily places at the top of the Square Enix request list right next to Sora, and Sora has his own barrel of issues that really makes him no competition.

Big pillars of modern Square Enix not yet represented in Smash:

Nier
Eidos properties
Kingdom Hearts (shared with Disney)

Medium pillars of modern Square Enix not (or barely) represented in Smash:

Bravely
Octopath
Saga
Mana
TWEWY

Square Enix non-entities:
Mario RPGs

Sakurai himself has desired to make Geno playable since back in Brawl, and this is from an interview that dates right after the end of Smash 4's DLC. Sakurai mentioned said that 'I think he [Geno] fits in really well with Smash' which is very important because this means that Geno qualifies for being unique and having fun moveset potential, something that Sakurai looks for in a character.

"He has a gun arm" was Sakurai's biggest takeaway. And Geno is far from the only character that Sakurai has said "I'd like this character to be in Smash, but it didn't happen". We're now 4 and a half years out from that interview.

In the game interview, Sakurai proves that he is aware of Geno's popularity. 'He’s very popular. When talking about older characters, Geno always gets a lot of requests.' This means Geno isn't in a situation in which the developers are unaware of his demand.

Again, there's a lot of characters like this.

For some reason, Geno's Mii Costume has yet to return in Ultimate. We've had two Mii Costume waves that were pretty grabbag random and had nothing to do with the character and a Square character, yet it didn't appear in any of these. This is odd when you consider that bringing back the costume would just be free money for Square and that Square wouldn't be about making a Premium Mii Costume package that includes music and still only get $.75. It gets even more odd when you consider that Geno and Mallow's Spirits, which would be considered to be of their likeness and would require negotiations, are in the base game along with references to SMRPG enemies in Piranha Plant's Palutena's Guidance in which Plant was originally intended for the base game. Wouldn't they have already negotiated for his costume and included it with Wave 2 then?

Some people may bring up the Heihachi costume returning as evidence that Geno's costume could still return, but Heihachi is a fighting game
character and ARMS is technically a fighting game, so not only was the inclusion thematic but Heihachi was never really heavily requested and Lloyd Irving was always the leader for another Bamco character anyway.

Where? Show me where Lloyd was the definitive Bamco choice character.

Heihachi is literally in the same position Ridley was. Sakurai directly mentioned him but couldn't figure out how to make him work. And since his costume hadn't returned yet, people were given hope that he would eventually be coming. So why wait 2 years to crush that hope? Because maybe Nintendo doesn't actually care about what vocal people online think?

Absence of the Mii costume means nothing. In fact, Sakurai said something in the Min Min presentation that strikes me as problematic for any older costumes not yet in the game. He mentioned spirit battles changing, but only in the context of Mii costumes. Notice how Min Min's WoL spirit battle didn't change.

Now who would be a prime candidate for a spirit battle change with a returning costume? In fact, he's the only one of the missing costumes that even has a spirit battle. Seems a little too convenient if you ask me.

The CacoMallow images and video have never been debunked all this time. Every possible argument brought up to disprove it has been properly countered and no single modder at that time could replicate it and no one came forward to own up to being the one who did it. When you consider how Ken was involved just like he was in his own Ken Debug leak, how the Cacodemon hat was designed to be more family-friendly, and how we just recently got a Bethesda costume in Vault Boy which proves that Nintendo and Bethesda have already negotiated on content being in the game...it becomes very hard to refute.

Vault Boy should be proof that CacoMallow isn't real. Yeah, I saw the dumb Bethesda/Zenimax split theory and it's nonsense. I know a guy at Zenimax and brought the thing up to him and he just laughed. The separation of the companies is overstated as far as IP management goes.

Most recently, the common man has now accepted that Spirits do not deconfirm due to Min Min's inclusion, even though the argument never made sense because so long as there is DLC or the game is still in it's active lifecycle the game can be updated and changed however they wish.

Sure, but there's no precedent for spirit battles being updated where a costume precedent exists. It could happen, but it's not even close to your 100% guarantee.

 

[TheBeastHimself]

Do polls really matter in the long-run? Even big name polls, do they cover the vast majority of the Smash fanbase? I also believe there is a difference between the Smash fanbase and the mainstream fanbase, the mainstream fanbase taking up 90% of Smash players (basically, people who play Smash casually and aren't too big into gaming/speculation.)

 

[SpectreJordan]

While not impossible, I would be surprised to get more full fighter's passes. The Smash devs have been working on Smash for what, five or six years now with no breaks? If more passes do happen, I hope they take something like a year's break between this one and the next, maybe doing a balance patch or two but nothing else. But I'm honestly expecting FP2 to be the last one. I'd love to be wrong, of course

What do you expect them to do for a year? They can’t take a full year off lmao. It’s either continue working on Smash or start on their next jobs/project.

Point me to a high degree of demand from Japanese fans and I'll admit I'm wrong. It's certainly not on 2ch where other characters completely dominate the conversation.

Who’s demanded on 2ch? I’ve been really curious about who’s been requested heavily in Japan in the past year. The speculation scene has changed drastically in the US, so I imagine it has in Japan as well.

 

[ZelDan]

"He has a gun arm" was Sakurai's biggest takeaway. And Geno is far from the only character that Sakurai has said "I'd like this character to be in Smash, but it didn't happen". We're now 4 and a half years out from that interview.

Huh, Sakurai stated that the reason he wanted Geno is because of his gun arm?

honestly, the fact that that interview is so old now and the fact we got character like Megaman and Mii Gunner since that interview makes me wonder if Sakurai actually still is interested in Geno like he was during that interview.

 

[cosmicB]

I won't say Geno isn't popular in Japan, in fact he still has strong followers. But not as many as people from Geno thread say so.
The Japanese votes you can see through any Western polls are from hardcore smash speculators who are always following the Western speculation scenes. Those are mostly from 5chan speculation thread and the followers of Musekinin Otoko (I say he is an equivalent of Fatmanonice in the Japanese speculation scene) from Twitter.
Their wants and the wants from the real Japanese audiences aren't the same.

Oh good, you're here. You could probably shed more light on the pulse of the Japanese speculation scene than I can.

Who’s demanded on 2ch? I’ve been really curious about who’s been requested heavily in Japan in the past year. The speculation scene has changed drastically in the US, so I imagine it has in Japan as well.

I've heard Saber and Reimu are kind of the "Sans" meme picks of Japan, but I'm hardly an expert on this since I rely on Japanese-speaking friends more than my own begginer-level knowledge of the language.

The other person I quoted could probably answer that better than I can.

 

[SpectreJordan]

I won't say Geno isn't popular in Japan, in fact he still has strong followers. But not as many as people from Geno thread say so.
The Japanese votes you can see through any Western polls are from hardcore smash speculators who are always following the Western speculation scenes. Those are mostly from 5chan speculation thread and the followers of Musekinin Otoko (I say he is an equivalent of Fatmanonice in the Japanese speculation scene) from Twitter.
Their wants and the wants from the real Japanese audiences aren't the same.

Who’s wanted amongst the Japanese speculators & the “real” Japanese audience? I’m curious for the same reasons I asked cosmicB below.

What do you expect them to do for a year? They can’t take a full year off lmao. It’s either continue working on Smash or start on their next jobs/project.



Who’s demanded on 2ch? I’ve been really curious about who’s been requested heavily in Japan in the past year. The speculation scene has changed drastically in the US, so I imagine it has in Japan as well.

 

[cosmicB]

Huh, Sakurai stated that the reason he wanted Geno is because of his gun arm?

honestly, the fact that that interview is so old now and the fact we got character like Megaman and Mii Gunner since that interview makes me wonder if Sakurai actually still is interested in Geno like he was during that interview.

Just a correction, that interview was after Smash 4 was done with new content (or just about, I don't remember entirely). Base game characters like Mii Gunner and Megaman were obviously already in.

HOWEVER, that interview could absolutely represent Sakurai's mindset during Brawl development rather than his mindset at the time of the interview, back when Samus was the only gun arm representation.

 

[N3ON]

Ah.

Geno isn’t important as characters like R.O.B. and others like Mario himself and Sonic, not even in the same way. Plus, Sakurai favoritism can only do so much. I am sure he wanted Geno in, but He has other things to consider when adding characters in Smash, like impacts on the gaming world or other important things. Liking Geno is not enough, or he would have added him now. I am also sure he has taken those other things into consideration and realize that Geno is not that big in many ways over time. That is probably why Geno is not in yet, if at all.

If, at some point, Geno is included, it will entirely stem from the popularity he has - all other factors will be negligible.

 

[Cosmic77]

Not that I think this is anymore likely to happen than the Geno costume being randomly dropped with a completely irrelevant character, but it's possible they're saving Geno so he can be released with a future Mario character. Alternatively, maybe Geno and Chicobo are being saved for a third SE character.

Who knows? If there isn't a specific theme that they're aiming for with these Mii costume waves, I question why they waited so long for Geno when they knew he was popular. I know Heihachi wasn't extremely popular, but I can imagine how confused his supporters felt when he got his costume back with Min Min of all things. Picture Geno being released alongside someone like Rex or a Pokemon.

 

[CannonStreak]

Just a correction, that interview was after Smash 4 was done with new content (or just about, I don't remember entirely). Base game characters like Mii Gunner and Megaman were obviously already in.

HOWEVER, that interview could absolutely represent Sakurai's mindset during Brawl development rather than his mindset at the time of the interview, back when Samus was the only gun arm representation.

Huh, Sakurai stated that the reason he wanted Geno is because of his gun arm?

honestly, the fact that that interview is so old now and the fact we got character like Megaman and Mii Gunner since that interview makes me wonder if Sakurai actually still is interested in Geno like he was during that interview.

I see what you two mean. I mean, like I said, Sakurai's views could have changed, even though the time gap between Smash 4 and Ultimate is rather smaller, but I think his views on Geno may have changed over time, as Sakurai may have seen that Geno's not all that as a worthy character in terms of gaming importance and other things, things he did not realize before. Now Geno could still get in, but at this rate, I don't think Sakurai has the same interest as he has had before. I mean, interest in something does usually dwindle over time, does it not?

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Not that I think this is anymore likely to happen than the Geno costume being randomly dropped with a completely irrelevant character, but it's possible they're saving Geno so he can be released with a future Mario character. Alternatively, maybe Geno and Chicobo are being saved for a third SE character.

Who knows? If there isn't a specific theme that they're aiming for with these Mii costume waves, I question why they waited so long for Geno when they knew he was popular. I know Heihachi wasn't extremely popular, but I can imagine how confused his supporters felt when he got his costume back with Min Min of all things. Picture Geno being released alongside someone like Rex or a Pokemon.

Namco didn’t have any DLC characters in 4 so Heihachi was dropped with Ryu, and I think Lloyd and Gil were around Cloud’s window if not WITH Cloud. They could save Lloyd and Gil for a different Namco character, but idk

anyway, Geno and Chocobo returning with Neku as playable. Best outcome for me cause Good GOD I wanted Neku in for the longest time

 

[ZelDan]

Not that I think this is anymore likely to happen than the Geno costume being randomly dropped with a completely irrelevant character, but it's possible they're saving Geno so he can be released with a future Mario character. Alternatively, maybe Geno and Chicobo are being saved for a third SE character.

Who knows? If there isn't a specific theme that they're aiming for with these Mii costume waves, I question why they waited so long for Geno when they knew he was popular. I know Heihachi wasn't extremely popular, but I can imagine how confused his supporters felt when he got his costume back with Min Min of all things. Picture Geno being released alongside someone like Rex or a Pokemon.

I still think about a hypothetical timeline where a Geno mii costume was revealed alongside Byleth.

The salt would be unimaginable.

 

[CannonStreak]

If, at some point, Geno is included, it will be entirely stem from the popularity he has - all other factors will be negligible.

Agreed, and even then, popularity alone won't get a character in Smash. I mean, those who are popular, like Banjo-Kazooie usually have more than one reason that got them in Smash, and that is not even counting Ridley, K. Rool and other Nintendo owned characters who were popular, who literally are easier to get in than third parties. Geno's game isn't even the biggest out there, for while nostalgic, which is the main thing to Geno here, Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars is still not made like Nintendo, and did not have impact on gaming history as Super Mario 64 and even the earlier Super Mario Bros. games for the NES. Turn based combat, and maybe timed hits were done before. In the end, despite its being remembered and nostalgia, Super Mario RPG is not that special of a game, right?

 

[SpectreJordan]

Oh good, you're here. You could probably shed more light on the pulse of the Japanese speculation scene than I can.



I've heard Saber and Reimu are kind of the "Sans" meme picks of Japan, but I'm hardly an expert on this since I rely on Japanese-speaking friends more than my own begginer-level knowledge of the language.

The other person I quoted could probably answer that better than I can.

Interesting that Reimu is considered a legit contender in the US, but she’s a meme in Japan. Saber being a meme is pretty obvious though; but I think it’d be hype af tbh lol

I wonder if they considered Sans a real contender. I know Undertale is really popular in Japan.

I see what you two mean. I mean, like I said, Sakurai's views could have changed, even though the time gap between Smash 4 and Ultimate is rather smaller, but I think his views on Geno may have changed over time, as Sakurai may have seen that Geno's not all that as a worthy character in terms of gaming importance and other things, things he did not realize before. Now Geno could still get in, but at this rate, I don't think Sakurai has the same interest as he has had before. I mean, interest in something does usually dwindle over time, does it not?

I think the mindset of Heihachi coming with Min-Min is because they’re both fighting games with a 3D aspect.

 

[CannonStreak]

Interesting that Reimu is considered a legit contender in the US, but she’s a meme in Japan. Saber being a meme is pretty obvious though; but I think it’d be hype af tbh lol

I wonder if they considered Sans a real contender. I know Undertale is really popular in Japan.



I think the mindset of Heihachi coming with Min-Min is because they’re both fighting games with a 3D aspect.

Huh? Forgive me, but what did that have to do with what I said?

I mean you are correct, but still...

 

[N3ON]

While on the subject of Isaac's popularity. You also can't forget that he probably did incredibly well in the Smash 4 ballot, considering Smash 4 ballot exit data and the amount of content that Golden Sun got in Ultimate's base game. I feel like Isaac's performance on the Smash 4 ballot probably had a hand in GS getting alot of said base game content

I would imagine that is the case. Tbf, GS did get a lot of content for a series with no playable representation, despite the lack of recent game.

So, I don't agree with polls being meaningless as a rule. I think you just have to be cognizant of the specifics of the poll. Is the sample size somewhat large, or is it only a few dozen votes? Was the poll distributed in areas that skew to a certain character or series? Were there measures to prevent bots?

If it's a small, unreliable poll, of course, discount it. If it's a larger, more reliable poll (or better yet, an aggregate of large, reliable polls, such as that massive ballot exit poll), it's a bit more meaningful. Of course it still only represents a sliver of the total votes cast, but with stuff like the ballot, the online crowd was the target demographic anyway.

And fwiw, thirteen of the top fifteen characters on that exit poll did receive some sort of noted attention in Ultimate. And one of the two exceptions was Bandana Dee, who is hindered by Sakurai's whole Kirby thing. So it's more like thirteen of fourteen... which is just something to keep in mind.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Interesting that Reimu is considered a legit contender in the US, but she’s a meme in Japan. Saber being a meme is pretty obvious though; but I think it’d be hype af tbh lol

If that's true that would mean that America wants her more than Japan, which is pretty ironic all things considered.

 

[Cosmic77]

I still think about a hypothetical timeline where a Geno mii costume was revealed alongside Byleth.

The salt would be unimaginable.

I'm actually not sure which outcome would cause more outrage:

1. Geno costume returning alongside the most criticized DLC character so far.
2. Geno costume returning alongside F11.
3. Geno costume not returning at all.

As sad as it sounds, I think most of his supporters would prefer option #3 over the other two just because it's the "least disrespectful choice". The logic people have been using with ATs makes me believe they'd actually prefer that he not be in the game at all than to see him stuck as something that acknowledges his popularity but doesn't make him playable. Either way, I think Geno's supporters would be more mentally prepared for #2 and #3 as time went on. Then again, people have been claiming that he's one of the most likely characters since Ridley.

 

[FJA147]

Overall since I’m on the younger end due to being born in the 2000s if I it wasn’t for the speculation scene I wouldn’t have known who Geno or Banjo were. When Banjo was revealed I was just happy for the people who wanted him. I am not somebody who wants Geno. I’m just bringing it up because a lot people who didn’t grow up in the 90s with the SNES probably don’t who Geno is. In my opinion that reason against Geno but I could be completely wrong because of Banjo getting in who many people born in the 2000s didn’t know who he was.