Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Ornl]

And Famitsu readers are supposed to be right? Everyone with a brain knows Fire Emblem is an RPG.

In japan, Tactical RPGs are known as "Simulation RPGs" (sources on this page), a designation which might seem peculiar to native English speakers. This stems from the Japanese usage of "simulation" as a short hand for "strategy simulation game".
Fire Emblem and SimCity also are on the same Japanese Wikipedia page about Simulation Games, but there is no source. Tactical RPGs are referred to as Simulation RPGs.

This is legitimately the first time I've ever heard of it as a 'simulation'. Famitsu got that wrong.

Famitsu is Japanese.

 

[GoodGrief741]

In japan, Tactical RPGs are known as "Simulation RPGs" (sources on this page), a designation which might seem peculiar to native English speakers. This stems from the Japanese usage of "simulation" as a short hand for "strategy simulation game".
Fire Emblem and SimCity also are on the same Japanese Wikipedia page about Simulation Games, but there is no source. Tactical RPGs are referred to as Simulation RPGs.


Famitsu is Japanese.

And are you Japanese or are you just using the wrong terminology? Because you're speaking English.

 

[dezeray112]

Representation by genres in Smash U

Foreword
This representation is an interpretation of the intention of Smash Bros to propose new DLC Fighter "different, to bring a different kind of fun and enjoyment for the player". It's to share a point of view from a classification by genres rather than to announce forecasts. Nothing in this post is authoritative. The classification is non-exhaustive. It's obvious that it is easy to reject any interpretation.

Spoiler: Fighting games and beat 'em up representations

- The Fighters from Punch-Out !!, Street Fighter and Bayonetta represent the fighting games and beat 'em up.
- Assist Trophees from ARMS, Joy Mech Fight and Virtua Fighter also represent the fighting games.
- Tekken has an old Mii Costume.
- Street Fighter already has a new representation in Smash U.
- Street Fighter and Bayonetta already have a DLC representation.
- Street Fighter and Bayonetta already are third party licenses.
- The fighting games and beat 'em up competing for DLC are Fatal Fury / The King of Fighters, Samurai Shodown, Soul Calibur, Dead or Alive / Ninja Gaiden and Tekken.
Personal prediction : Street Fighter and Bayonetta already are 2 third-party licenses that appear in DLC, against only 1 Nintendo license, there would be no new Fighter from fighting game or beat 'em up. Otherwise, how Fatal Fury, Samurai Shodown, Soul Calibur, Ninja Gaiden or Tekken could to bring a different kind of fun and enjoyment for the player ?

[/SPOILER]

Hmm.....I wouldn't exactly classify Bayonetta and Ninja Gaiden as a Fighting or Beat 'em up genre but more like an Action/Hack and Slash genre type.

As someone who does play a lot of the Fighting/Beat 'em up genre, I do think there are specific characters who can bring the fun and enjoyment factor and characters such as the likes of Heihachi Mishima, Terry Bogard, Kyo Kusanagi, Nakoruru etc can offer something different.

 

[Dukemon]

Do you guess that in the data files for the CSS is a slot for masterhand?

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Do you guess that in the data files for the CSS is a slot for masterhand?

Not sure what you mean but if theres is a slot for Master Hand it wouldn't surprise me due to the fact that it is technically playable.

 

[Dukemon]

Not sure what you mean but if theres is a slot for Master Hand it wouldn't surprise me due to the fact that it is technically playable.

This is what I mean. In past releases some bosses had always controller settings (master hand and Giga Bowser in Melee). Now Smash is dealing on another way with Master Hand. That is why i am wondering, if Master Hand could have a hidden CSS slot.

 

[Ornl]

And are you Japanese or are you just using the wrong terminology? Because you're speaking English.

Why should one be Japanese to propose another point of view ? Why would speaking English mean not being able to propose new points of view ? Why what is wrong (and "no brain") for you shoud be wrong for everyone ?

 

[GoodGrief741]

Why should one be Japanese to propose another point of view ?

You're trying to communicate your thoughts, right? This is an English-speaking forum, so if you effectively want to convey what you mean, you should do so in terms that everyone can understand. If the Japanese call Fire Emblem a simulation game, that's great for them, but you aren't speaking to a majority Japanese audience, so you should at least explain why you do some things that appear odd to the people reading your post.

Why what is wrong (and "no brain") for you shoud be wrong for everyone ?

I've yet to see somebody who thinks you're right, bucko. Calling Fire Emblem a simulation game is far from the only factual mistake you made.

Open your mind to the possibility that, maybe, you are wrong.

 

[N3ON]

Why should one be Japanese to propose another point of view ? Why would speaking English mean not being able to propose new points of view ? Why what is wrong (and "no brain") for you shoud be wrong for everyone ?

You're not speaking Japanese, we're not speaking Japanese; it doesn't make sense to use Japanese terminology when it means something different in the language actually being spoken.

Especially since you're using it to conflate the western genre of sim games and the eastern genre of sim games, which isn't how either operates. I mean that list you provided shows Japan doesn't consider Animal Crossing or Nintendogs sim games - presumably they've another label for them.

You wouldn't see Isaac fans calling him Robin. Robin is a different character in the west, so that'd be needlessly confusing.

 

[Ornl]

If the Japanese call Fire Emblem a simulation game, that's great for them, but you aren't speaking to a majority Japanese audience, so you should at least explain why you do some things that appear odd to the people reading your post.

I already mentioned in the original post :

Classification based from this survey.

I've yet to see somebody who thinks you're right, bucko. Calling Fire Emblem a simulation game is far from the only factual mistake you made.

Open your mind to the possibility that, maybe, you are wrong.

Argumentum ad populum is a fallacious argument.

You're not speaking Japanese, we're not speaking Japanese; it doesn't make sense to use Japanese terminology when it means something different in the language actually being spoken.

You wouldn't see Isaac fans calling him Robin. Robin is a different character in the west, so that'd be needlessly confusing.

Super Smash Bros is a Japanese license with a team of Japanese developers.
A different approach to a cultural classification from a Japanese point of view does not mean to Japaneseize a name.

I mean that list you provided shows Japan doesn't consider Animal Crossing or Nintendogs sim games - presumably they've another label for them.

For the Japanese, Digital Pets are training simulation games.
For the Japanese, Animal Crossing is considered as a management simulation game.
Both pages are accessible from the link I provided.

 

[SKX31]

I already mentioned in the original post :



Argumentum ad populum is a fallacious argument.



Super Smash Bros is a Japanese license with a team of Japanese developers.
A different approach to a cultural classification from a Japanese point of view does not mean to Japaneseize a name.


For the Japanese, Digital Pets are training simulation games.
For the Japanese, Animal Crossing is considered as a management simulation game.
Both pages are accessible from the link I provided.

The problem lies in that you're not doing a good job contextualizing (in fact, not at all) the cultural differences, especially since a) Smash is a globally sold game, and has been since Day 1 and b) this is an America-centric forum. The survey you linked doesn't explain what makes a simulation game a simulation game (Is it RPGs and management games? Why are Digital Pets and Animal Crossing considered simulation games? Would e.g. Football Manager, very often seen as simulation in the West, be classified as simulation in Japan?) The "Death of the Author" hypothesis is in full force here - sure it's Japanese developed, but Smash and pretty much video games in general are going to be recieved based on the very different contexts that consumers have. Japanese or not. I'm also pressing the point since a) it appears just from your arguments that the Japanese view is much more broad than the American and / or European, and b) Most people here do not know Japanese at all, so using Japanese terms are not the best in this context without some major league explanation.

Saying that something is a simulation game doesn't mean a whole lot until you bring up what makes the Japanese view of "simulation" differ from the American and / or European. I'm not going to accept just "the Japanese think this way", especially since the Japanese view of "simulation" and the American are not going to be exactly uniform. In which context did the Japanese view of "simulation" develop?

I know my use of "Japanese" and "American / European" isn't going to be perfect or catch-all, I'm using those terms to mean "The most common definition of X".

 

[Ornl]

The problem lies in that you're not doing a good job contextualizing (in fact, not at all) the cultural differences, especially since a) Smash is a globally sold game, and has been since Day 1 and b) this is an America-centric forum. The survey you linked doesn't explain what makes a simulation game a simulation game (Is it RPGs and management games? Why are Digital Pets and Animal Crossing considered simulation games? Would e.g. Football Manager, very often seen as simulation in the West, be classified as simulation in Japan?) The "Death of the Author" hypothesis is in full force here - sure it's Japanese developed, but Smash and pretty much video games in general are going to be recieved based on the very different contexts that consumers have. Japanese or not. I'm also pressing the point since a) it appears just from your arguments that the Japanese view is much more broad than the American and / or European, and b) Most people here do not know Japanese at all, so using Japanese terms are not the best in this context without some major league explanation.

Saying that something is a simulation game doesn't mean a whole lot until you bring up what makes the Japanese view of "simulation" differ from the American and / or European. I'm not going to accept just "the Japanese think this way", especially since the Japanese view of "simulation" and the American are not going to be exactly uniform. In which context did the Japanese view of "simulation" develop?

I know my use of "Japanese" and "American / European" isn't going to be perfect or catch-all, I'm using those terms to mean "The most common definition of X".

To share a cultural point of view unique from Japan, about a game developed in Japan, this classification contributes to get an overall vision and a new critical look. In my first post about classifications, this point of view makes it possible to express :
Considering that FE is a simulation RPG, which is ranked among all games considered as simulations in Japan, the total of other RPG licences represented by Fighters in Smash U would be 6, including Brave. 3 licenses would belong to Nintendo (Mother, Pokemon and Xenoblade), against 3 third-party licenses (FF, Persona and proably DQ). This 3/3 ratio asks the question of whether there will be a 4th third party RPG in DLCs. I'm not saying that there is a quota, I'm bringing attention to the probabilities that the RPGs could be more represented by third-party licenses than by Nintendo. My basic subject is this one. You are free to do an investigation into the difference in meaning between simulation games in Japan, Europe and America.

 

[SKX31]

To share a cultural point of view unique from Japan, about a game developed in Japan, this classification contributes to get an overall vision and a new critical look. In my first post about classifications, this point of view makes it possible to express :
Considering that FE is a simulation RPG, which is ranked among all games considered as simulations in Japan, the total of other RPG licences represented by Fighters in Smash U would be 6, including Brave. 3 licenses would belong to Nintendo (Mother, Pokemon and Xenoblade), against 3 third-party licenses (FF, Persona and proably DQ). This 3/3 ratio asks the question of whether there will be a 4th third party RPG in DLCs. I'm not saying that there is a quota, I'm bringing attention to the probabilities that the RPGs could be more represented by third-party licenses than by Nintendo. My basic subject is this one. You are free to do an investigation into the difference in meaning between simulation games in Japan, Europe and America.

I'm sorry, but that sounds like you're trying to weasel your way out of this. Again, you're stating that something is a simulation without clarifying why that is - which is the problem all of the responses ( GoodGrief741 , Ovaltine etc.) has had with your post from the very first moment. If you were going to bring up Japanese terms like "Simulation game", you should be aware that this is a mostly American forum unaware of Japanese classifications, and be prepared to explain why that is.

Right now you're also coming off as you're assuming that your world view's common knowledge. That is a dangerous proporsition when you don't account for certain factors like different contexts. I have absolutely no knowledge of Japanese, for example, so I can't hunt down the meaning of "Simulation game" in Japanese contexts.

 

[Ornl]

Again, you're stating that something is a simulation without clarifying why that is - which is the problem all of the responses ( GoodGrief741 , Ovaltine etc.) has had with your post from the very first moment. If you were going to bring up Japanese terms like "Simulation game", you should be aware that this is a mostly American forum unaware of Japanese classifications, and be prepared to explain why that is.

Right now you're also coming off as you're assuming that your world view's common knowledge. That is a dangerous proporsition when you don't account for certain factors like different contexts. I have absolutely no knowledge of Japanese, for example, so I can't hunt down the meaning of "Simulation game" in Japanese contexts.

Nobody need to explain why the Japanese (including Famitsu) consider Fire Emblem as a simulation series. It is a fact.
Nobody need to explain why this designation might seem special to native English speakers. It's a generality (quote).
I have no assumptions about people's reading. To the contrary, I invite anyone to perform checks.

 

[SKX31]

Nobody need to explain why the Japanese (including Famitsu) consider Fire Emblem as a simulation series. It is a fact.
Nobody need to explain why this designation might seem special to native English speakers. It's a generality (quote).
I have no assumptions about people's reading. To the contrary, I invite anyone to perform checks.

Incredible. You managed to both miss and prove my point. You saw responses that did not literally know what was meant by "Simulation" (because, you know, their exposure to Japanese stuff might be a bit more limited than you imagine. Shock! Horror!) and decided to discard that because "Everyone knows exactly what I mean! My world view is common knowledge!" And you're not budging a single inch. Yippie.

Before I leave to scream Angrish into the mirror, yeah I read that qoute. That could've been brought up earlier, you know. You had the tools to contextualize the entire thing, and yet, gahhhh...

[EDIT] Yes, I realize, I was being too harsh by a large margin here. Not going to edit the main post though, what's done is done.

 

[RileyXY1]

If they don't announce it tomorrow, we wait until the 25th I assume.

you announce it literally the day before, Nintendo?!?!

I don't think that they will wait until the day Joker comes out to show him off.

 

[TheCJBrine]

I don't think that they will wait until the day Joker comes out to show him off.

Maybe, but it makes sense if he has a female alt. that ATLUS wants to show off in the P5R thing they're doing.

 

[Curious Villager]

Do you guess that in the data files for the CSS is a slot for masterhand?

Apparently he's being treated as an item, at least according to datamines and mods I've seen. Giga Bowser is playable and selectable in the CSS though.

 

[CboyC95]

I was hoping for Ulala from Space Channel 5 as a playable character, and maybe throw in Pudding as her echo fighter for good measure.

 

[KneeOfJustice99]

I was hoping for Ulala from Space Channel 5 as a playable character, and maybe throw in Pudding as her echo fighter for good measure.

Personally, I think that a lot of Sega characters have a ton of moveset potential. Personally, I support Beat from JSRF, but the most likely non-Sonic character would be someone like AiAi or, oddly enough, Hatsune Miku. I know the former is basically seen by Sega as the 'second face' after Sonic, and the latter would probably get in based on Japanese popularity, and she's in games, even if she didn't originate from one.

 

[Ornl]

Incredible. You managed to both miss and prove my point. You saw responses that did not literally know what was meant by "Simulation" (because, you know, their exposure to Japanese stuff might be a bit more limited than you imagine. Shock! Horror!) and decided to discard that because "Everyone knows exactly what I mean! My world view is common knowledge!" And you're not budging a single inch. Yippie.

Before I leave to scream Angrish into the mirror, yeah I read that qoute. That could've been brought up earlier, you know. You had the tools to contextualize the entire thing, and yet, gahhhh...

[EDIT] Yes, I realize, I was being too harsh by a large margin here. Not going to edit the main post though, what's done is done.

Here is what appears most in all the answers of my first post about classifications :

You lost, you said, You really have, your own judgments, without basing your opinions, are you, are you, you're, You're, mistake you made, Open your mind, you are, You're, you're, You wouldn't see, you're, The survey you linked doesn't explain, your arguments, you bring up, you're, your way, you're, you were going to bring up, you're, you're, your world view, You managed to miss, you know, you imagine, you're, you know, You had the tools to contextualize.

I understand that some people answer by "you/your" and focusing their attention to only 1 point from the subject.

 

[osby]

Don't turn discussions into personal debates. If you have an argument with another user, solve it in PM.

 

[Door Key Pig]

I think that whenever Joker is released, we won't get the next character announcement. Instead, we will get 2 announcements at E3.

I'm not sure if they will both release, as this time around there won't be a veteran.

Remember, Roy and Ryu were first officially announced at E3.

— Will (PushDustIn) (@PushDustIn) April 15, 2019

Why do you all think??

 

[andree123]

I think that whenever Joker is released, we won't get the next character announcement. Instead, we will get 2 announcements at E3.

I'm not sure if they will both release, as this time around there won't be a veteran.

Remember, Roy and Ryu were first officially announced at E3.

— Will (PushDustIn) (@PushDustIn) April 15, 2019

If we get one for the west and one for the east at E3, I will say it will be Erdrick and Banjo.

 

[Deleted member]

I think that whenever Joker is released, we won't get the next character announcement. Instead, we will get 2 announcements at E3.

I'm not sure if they will both release, as this time around there won't be a veteran.

Remember, Roy and Ryu were first officially announced at E3.

— Will (PushDustIn) (@PushDustIn) April 15, 2019

Why do you all think??

If Erdrick is the 2nd DLC fighter, it makes total sense for him to be announced alongside someone else. I'm certain a good portion of western audiences aren't familiar with who Erdrick is, so it's a good idea to announce him alongside another fighter.

Since there are no signs of a Direct happening anytime before E3, Joker will probably have a gameplay trailer of him drop before May. I don't think Nintendo would release a trailer of Erdrick without having a Direct, so chances are we'll be seeing him at E3.

 

[Cap'n Jack]

Yeah, I could totally see Erdrick and Banjo both being announced at E3

 

[Dukemon]

There would be any surprise to me, when the game shows only a new entry on the message board. The Twitter channels throwing out the trailers for 3.0 and joker plus stage as well as the blog is getting a new entry.

 

[dezeray112]

I think that whenever Joker is released, we won't get the next character announcement. Instead, we will get 2 announcements at E3.

I'm not sure if they will both release, as this time around there won't be a veteran.

Remember, Roy and Ryu were first officially announced at E3.

— Will (PushDustIn) (@PushDustIn) April 15, 2019

Why do you all think??

That's possible I guess. After all, E3 is one of the biggest gaming events there is and I'm sure Nintendo would want to take the opportunity to pull a surprise.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I think that whenever Joker is released, we won't get the next character announcement. Instead, we will get 2 announcements at E3.

I'm not sure if they will both release, as this time around there won't be a veteran.

Remember, Roy and Ryu were first officially announced at E3.

— Will (PushDustIn) (@PushDustIn) April 15, 2019

Why do you all think??

God no please. I don't want to go through an DLC drought until June...

 

[Ornl]

What would have been the right methods to predict DLC Fighters ?
Here's in part how it would have been possible to predict that a Megami Tensei and Dragon Quest rep in Smash Bros, before Joker announcement and the differents rumors about Erdrick.

Spoiler: Now the ballot disconfirms

Sakurai and Iwata have always talked about the ballot as though it was a suggestion box, not a poll. Sakurai would later state that he referred to the ballot when deciding on newcomers for Ultimate and, as a result, added Daisy, Dark Samus, Ridley, Simon, Richter, and King K. Rool.

Concerning the new Fighters, Reggie announced : "Who never saw it coming, new to the series, just like Joker from Persona 5 : it's emblematic of the approach that Mr. Sakurai and the team are taking with the DLC. He wants characters that are unique, different, to bring them into the Smash Bros environment. Ultimate would bring just a whole different level of fun and enjoyment for the player. That's been the approach. That's the thinking".

A new Fighter couldn't be both a ballot choice and unexpected. In other words, the votes from fans during Sm4sh could be disconfirming many characters to SmashU DLCs. Now the ballot disconfirms.
Piranha Plant and Joker certainly don't have high places in the ballot, and are both unexpected. This may be the case about Erdrick too.
On the other hand, Arle Nadja , Ashley, Banjo , Bayonetta, Bomberman, Chorus Men, Crash Bandicoot , Custom Robo, Daisy, Dark Samus, Dixie, Geno, Impa, Inkling, Isaac, Jibanyan , Klonoa , K.Rool, Knuckles, Krystal, Midna, Paper Mario, Phoenix Wright , Professor Layton , Rayman, Ridley, Sceptile, Shantae, Shovel Knight, Skull Kid, Sora , Sukapon, Tails, Takamaru, Toad, Waddle Dee, Viewtiful Joe , Waluigi and Wonder Red certainly have high places in the ballot. Some of them became Fighters, Assisted Trophees or Spirits, the others should skip their turn .
Considering only the ballot, the characters who would be more advantaged (not a lot of votes) are Steve, Master Chief, Ryu Hayabusa & Doomguy (the 5channel DLC leak), SNK rep, other Tale of rep & Resident Evil rep (the 2nd 5channel DLC Leak), Amaterasu and other characters from non-Japanese licenses (Tracer, Ezio, Sans...).
So forecasts for new Fighters require new analysising and understanding methods.

Spoiler: Method - to look history

Shin Megami Tensei is a series that have almost 64 games. The first opus appeared on Famicom, and the next 8 on Nintendo support. In America, SMT and Persona appear on GB, GBA, DS and 3DS. A crossover with Fire emblem published on Wii U. Although it was a commercial failure, the Virtual Boy announced a short selection of games. Among them, there are the universes of Mario, Wario, Bomberman, Space Invaders, Tetris and Megami Tensei.

Dragon Quest is a series that have almost 40 games, and is considered to be part of the Nintendo family. Most games in the series (including Monsters) are on Nintendo support. The series is even entitled to a specific logo version when the game is released by Nintendo, which is not done with any other outside license. Slime inspired the same enemy in Zelda 3 and subsequent opuses. He also appeared in three Mario games : Itadaki Street DS, Mario Sports Mix and Fortune Street, and in Miitopia.
The Dragon Quest series has already sold 76 million units. Dragon Quest IX is the best selling third party game at Nintendo, and the 12th position of the best-selling games in Japan. Dragon Quest VII 16th. Dragon Quest III 23rd. Dragon Quest VIII 25th.

Animated series
Like all third-party licenses in Smash, except the Konami and Bayonetta series, Persona and Dragon Quest existed in animated series before they are included in Smash Bros. In this list, other video game series have been adapted to animated series : Babylonian Castle Saga, Bomberman, The Idolm@ster, Tale of, Tekken, Ninja Gaiden, Professor Layton, The King of Fighters, Samurai Shodown, Sakura Wars...
The animated series Captain N (1989) brings together a lot of video game universes. Among them, there are elements from Castlevania, Donkey Kong, Final Fantasy, Kid Icarus, Mario, Megaman, Metroid, Punch Out !!, Zelda, Dragon Quest, Faxanadu, Gradius, Tetris, and Wizards & Warriors. The Game Boy is also a character.

Spoiler: Method - to look Famitsū

The Japanese video game magazine Famitsū assigns scores to video games. Persona 5 received a near-perfect score of 39/40. Dragon Quest IX and IX received a perfect score. Dragon Quest II and VIII received anear-perfect score of 39/40.
In 2017, according to the Famitsū readers, Persona 5 is the favorite game of all time, and Dragon Quest III is in 2sd position. Persona 5 is still at the top 20 RPG of all time, and Dragon Quest III rests in 2sd position.
In 2016, in the most memorable games on each console, Final Fantasy appears 17 times, Mario 15, Dragon Quest 12, Pokémon 9 and Megami Tensei 9 (including Tokyo Mirage Sessions ♯FE). The 6th most represented series is Sakura Taisen, that appears 5 times.

Famitsū & Sakurai
Famitsū included a developper column where Sakurai publish bi-weekly column since 2003. Regarding back on his past columns in 2016, he mentioned Final Fantasy 77 times, Dragon Quest 71, Metal Gear 46, Monster Hunter 42, Zelda 41, Mario 40, Pokémon 34, Street Fighter 32, Gradius 30 and Mother 29. The same year, Sakurai discusses Persona 5‘s user interface, and has a lot of praise to give Persona 5’s UI. The next year, Sakurai is invited by Atlus to attend PERSONA SUPER LIVE BOMB P-SOUND !!!! 2017 and shares his positive impression.

Spoiler: Other methods

To look 2018-2020 trends, potential movesets, similarities... What would be the other methods to analyze and understand that a new character is missing in Smash Bros ? How to evaluate who could or couldn't be alongside Pac-Man, Simon, Snake, Ryu, Mega Man, Sonic, Cloud, Bayonetta, Joker and probably Erdrick ?

 

[TheCJBrine]

What would have been the right methods to predict DLC Fighters ?
Here's in part how it would have been possible to predict that a Megami Tensei and Dragon Quest rep in Smash Bros, before Joker announcement and the differents rumors about Erdrick.

Spoiler: Now the ballot disconfirms

Sakurai and Iwata have always talked about the ballot as though it was a suggestion box, not a poll. Sakurai would later state that he referred to the ballot when deciding on newcomers for Ultimate and, as a result, added Daisy, Dark Samus, Ridley, Simon, Richter, and King K. Rool.

Concerning the new Fighters, Reggie announced : "Who never saw it coming, new to the series, just like Joker from Persona 5 : it's emblematic of the approach that Mr. Sakurai and the team are taking with the DLC. He wants characters that are unique, different, to bring them into the Smash Bros environment. Ultimate would bring just a whole different level of fun and enjoyment for the player. That's been the approach. That's the thinking".

A new Fighter couldn't be both a ballot choice and unexpected. In other words, the votes from fans during Sm4sh could be disconfirming many characters to SmashU DLCs. Now the ballot disconfirms.
Piranha Plant and Joker certainly don't have high places in the ballot, and are both unexpected. This may be the case about Erdrick too.
On the other hand, Arle Nadja , Ashley, Banjo , Bayonetta, Bomberman, Chorus Men, Crash Bandicoot , Custom Robo, Daisy, Dark Samus, Dixie, Geno, Impa, Inkling, Isaac, Jibanyan , Klonoa , K.Rool, Knuckles, Krystal, Midna, Paper Mario, Phoenix Wright , Professor Layton , Rayman, Ridley, Sceptile, Shantae, Shovel Knight, Skull Kid, Sora , Sukapon, Tails, Takamaru, Toad, Waddle Dee, Viewtiful Joe , Waluigi and Wonder Red certainly have high places in the ballot. Some of them became Fighters, Assisted Trophees or Spirits, the others should skip their turn .
Considering only the ballot, the characters who would be more advantaged (not a lot of votes) are Steve, Master Chief, Ryu Hayabusa & Doomguy (the 5channel DLC leak), SNK rep, other Tale of rep & Resident Evil rep (the 2nd 5channel DLC Leak), Amaterasu and other characters from non-Japanese licenses (Tracer, Ezio, Sans...).
So forecasts for new Fighters require new analysising and understanding methods.

I don't see why we have to take Reggie's words literally as if the Ballot disconfirms everyone. I really doubt he was being literal and not metaphorical.

If he actually meant something like that, that's an easy way to tick off your consumers.

And we don't know the ballot results, so we can't accurately judge, anyway. Reggie's words were nothing more than something to get fans interested; if his words even matter so much, some characters like B-K could still be unexpected because third-party competitors, long-time wants that were never fulfilled, or even because they didn't make base-game. Steve could also be expected because I'm sure Minecraft would've had a decent place in the Ballot, based on the fans and people wanting Steve on Miiverse and, if you're taking 5chan "leaks" into account, Minecraft did have a place in the Ballot, and the one with all of the DLC characters was very likely fake.

Plus, the Ballot was for wants, not for who people expected so they added them. Wanting a character =/= expecting them. DQ may as well be disconfirmed due to how much Japan loves the series, then.

 

[RileyXY1]

We can't say who did well on the ballot because we don't know the ballot results and I don't think that we ever will.

 

[Ayumi Tachibana]

Japanese version of smash ballot never used words like "ballot" or "votes".
The notes were clearing stating that the "posts" will be used just as references. Even the title in Japanese was not saying ballot, just "Smash Postings".
But I know the numbers were important regardless since they gathered total of 1.8 million posts not counting suspicious repeats.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Welp, that was a waste of time.

I really don't see the reason behind all the secrecy? They just posted a video detailing Joker's gameplay, a couple of costumes, and the 3.0 update. I really don't see why this couldn't have gone in the February Direct.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Hurrah and thus almost two more months of DLC character drought to go through until E3. Such fun!

 

[Icedragonadam]

Well that was unexpected. However I think we have a bit of a hint with next few DLC newcomers. They're probably from SE, Namco, and Capcom, because the 1st Mii's fighter pack only had Sega Costumes, new and returning. So it looks like 3rd party mii costumes will be released in packs by company.

 

[fleshdude.gov]

Joker looks like they're gonna upseat Smash 4 Bayo in terms of brokenness.

Also, exclusive DLC Spirit Board? Wonder what that'll mean for the rest of the newcomers.

 

[Deleted member]

the 1st Mii's fighter pack only had Sega Costumes, new and returning. So it looks like 3rd party mii costumes will be released in packs by company.

I didn't even realize that. Nice catch.

So from the looks of it, there are now 5 spots open for stages, which could mean that 1 of the fighter packs could come with 2 stages or we're possibly getting a 6th Fighter Pack, unless this is just a red herring. Too bad we have to wait until E3 but I'm pumped to find out who are the next 2 fighters if they do a double reveal.

Also, who's ready to see some datamines coming around when 3.0.0 drops?

 

[RileyXY1]

Looks like the "realistic guns" argument is dead with Joker using a realistic pistol as his neutral special (which means that Kirby will also use one if he copies Joker).

 

[GoodGrief741]

I didn't even realize that. Nice catch.

So from the looks of it, there are now 5 spots open for stages, which could mean that 1 of the fighter packs could come with 2 stages or we're possibly getting a 6th Fighter Pack, unless this is just a red herring. Too bad we have to wait until E3 but I'm pumped to find out who are the next 2 fighters if they do a double reveal.

Also, who's ready to see some datamines coming around when 3.0.0 drops?

I need them datamines. I need something. Anything.

Looks like the "realistic guns" argument is dead with Joker using a realistic pistol as his neutral special (which means that Kirby will also use one if he copies Joker).

Can't wait for Gun Kirby and all the memes that will come with him.