Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Ninjaed]

7. I don't think these polls have bias, and I believe them to be reflective of the general community during the ballot era. Just like how political polls don't actually show what's going to happen, they usually can predict a general theme and results, just like these polls.

Exactly this. I can completely understand being skeptical of polls, especially ones that don't include all sides. Japan was mostly left out in the aforementioned poll, for instance. However, polls with a sizeable sample do tend to reflect habits and patterns. Examples of patterns in this case: the gathering around King K. Rool, solid voting fanbases around some popular characters (Ridley, Isaac, Inklings, ...) and many characters being completely left out in the dust (too many to cite).

While we cannot say for certain whether Isaac or Bandana Dee is the next highest request, we can say that both have non-negligible support... among the smash community. That's the biggest point of contention: most of these unofficial polls only ask the smash community, but the smash playerbase is bigger than that. Still, this is the best data we've got right now.

 

[FlawedAI]

Exactly this. I can completely understand being skeptical of polls, especially ones that don't include all sides. Japan was mostly left out in the aforementioned poll, for instance. However, polls with a sizeable sample do tend to reflect habits and patterns. Examples of patterns in this case: the gathering around King K. Rool, solid voting fanbases around some popular characters (Ridley, Isaac, Inklings, ...) and many characters being completely left out in the dust (too many to cite).

While we cannot say for certain whether Isaac or Bandana Dee is the next highest request, we can say that both have non-negligible support... among the smash community. That's the biggest point of contention: most of these unofficial polls only ask the smash community, but the smash playerbase is bigger than that. Still, this is the best data we've got right now.

Yep, I've never once claimed that Dee is not popular, in fact, he's my number three character (behind Isaac and Paper Mario), but we can say that the Smash scene has lots of passion for these characters. In fact, the reason I believe these polls is because I believe that the vast majority of votes on the ballot came from the core scene, since someone who just plays Smash casually wouldn't really search this out and vote. However, Isaac is definitely a more niche character compared to Dee, but I feel his support from hardcore players will be enough.

 

[Daedulus]

No, I don't know what you mean. Why would Nintendo not care about Europe and what they want?

Playstation is still bought in Japan, in fact the only place the PS Vita succeeded is Japan, the XBox definitely failed there.

Mother 3 wasn't released anywhere outside of Japan, and it wasn't the translation aspect that held it back.

Playstation does not have the market share that nintendo does and they care about europe...... but it is kinda last priority.

Okay so I'm going to take this point by point.

1. I'm not disregarding characters like Dee, or any others, it's my (and many others) personal opinion that Isaac was next. I feel like enough circumstantial evidence points to this being the case, as I detailed in my theory.
2. If we look at popular characters during the ballot era and those that made it into Smash, we can see that Ridley and K. Rool were really the only ballot choices. Inklings were obvious, Simon's a great third-party rep, and Incineroar didn't even exist until 2016. It's common knowledge that Ridley was a huge request for a long time, and when he was finally revealed, Japanese players started calling him "Captain America" jokingly, since he got almost zero support from over there. K. Rool, however, is considered a widespread request, and I believe that he might have been the overall winner, since he places highly on many polls. Additionally, echoes like Chrom, Dark Samus, and Richter are also fan choices, as if you look at the exit poll for the Smash ballot, both Chrom and Dark Samus placed quite highly.
3. Golden Sun sold exceptionally well in Europe. The first game sold 380,000 copies (according to VGChartz) alone in Europe, and the total sales reached 1.8 million lifetime. The Lost Age, the second game in the Golden Sun franchise, sold 270,000 copies in Europe, reaching 1.22 million lifetime sales. Dark Dawn sold much less, only selling 100,000 in Europe, but that game only reached 810,000 copies lifetime (which is still incredible for when it released in the DS's lifespan). So, both Golden Sun and The Lost Age happened to outsell a particular game that features a particular character you might know: Kirby's Return to Dreamland sold a whopping 210,000 copies in Europe, and its lifetime sales are 1.66 million, less than the first Golden Sun. You are simply wrong in your assertions that Golden Sun didn't sell.
4. Why would Bandana Dee be popular in Japan? I don't know, I'm not from Europe, but I imagine it's very similar to how I got drawn to him: his unique abilities, neat design, and excellent home series. It's a taste thing, man.
5. I know that polls don't represent the entire voting population, but it's about sample size. In the exit poll with over 45,000 votes, Isaac placed second worldwide. The only character ahead of him? King K. Rool. It's by far the largest exit poll we have, and is fairly reflective of what we got in Ultimate. The top 10 featured 5 characters that didn't make it: Paper Mario, Bandana Dee, Shovel Knight, Banjo-Kazooie, and Isaac. Of the top 10 that did make it, Bayonetta, Inkling, Snake, Wolf, and King K. Rool, the four returned in Ultimate. This poll is highly reflective of what actually happened.
6. Yep, I've already admitted that Bandana Dee beats Isaac in Japan. He's definitely the most requested over there, so if there was a Japan pick, it'd probably be him. However, he doesn't have the worldwide popularity Isaac has. The Source Gaming poll is very reflective of Japan's picks, but this game's fan service wasn't just about Japan, and Ridley is the proof.
7. I don't think these polls have bias, and I believe them to be reflective of the general community during the ballot era. Just like how political polls don't actually show what's going to happen, they usually can predict a general theme and results, just like these polls.

1. I never said you were

2. Yeah

3. Are we talking about just return to dreamland? Because the whole series sold 38.09 million units world wide, EVEN IF EUROPE MADE UP ONLY 10% of the total sales worldwide, it would have still have sold 3.8 million copies there, most europeans have played kirby not golden sun, and since that's all the evidence you gave me.... I think waddle dee's bigger in europe.

4. Bandana dee's popular in japan because the games are popular in Japan because of there cutesy, japanese like style (reminds me of hello kitty).

5. The exit poll had 45,000 people vote...... that is less than 1% of the smash bros player population, yes they did come back, but there are external sources that allowed the characters to appear too.

6. Ridely is proof, the only proof, people liked rideley here, but since the game is developed in japan, they ONLY HEARD US SHOUTING FOR RIDELY, Rideley was SUPER big here, he dwarfs Isaac and Geno TEN FOLD, of course he got in, and what about roy and marth in melee and lucas in brawl?

7. If any of these polls are from the Get Isaac or die Tryn' thread..... I swear

 

[KMDP]

Playstation does not have the market share that nintendo does and they care about europe...... but it is kinda last priority.

While would "Market Share" matter? Someone has to be on top.

Also, it's irrelevant, so what if Nintendo has a big market share in Japan?

The fact of the matter is that, simply by numbers, Nintendo sells more copies in America and Europe (like, Nintendo sold 3 times as many copies of Mario Odyssey and Zelda: BOTW in America than they did in Japan, and twice as many in Europe than Japan).

 

[SPEN18]

"Ashley is popular in Japan"

Sorry I'll leave before I start a war

 

[Daedulus]

While would "Market Share" matter? Someone has to be on top.

Also, it's irrelevant, so what if Nintendo has a big market share in Japan?

The fact of the matter is that, simply by numbers, Nintendo sells more copies in America and Europe (like, Nintendo sold 3 times as many copies of Mario Odyssey and Zelda: BOTW in America than they did in Japan, and twice as many in Europe than Japan).

If you care about buisness, stalks and financial security.... You'd care about market share, and since there company and about 60%-70% of there profit comes from Japan it does matter, and while it is true that Odessy did sell more.... Nintendo has a lot more consumers by population than the US, it's all about dat market share boi!

 

[SPEN18]

there company and about 60%-70% of there profit comes from Japan it does matter

Nintendo has a lot more consumers by population than the US

Cite these, or no one is gonna listen to you. If you cited this in an earlier post and I missed it, then whoops lol

 

[FancySmash]

Gee, this is still going on? Can't we just leave it at Isaac and Bandana Dee are both popular and call it a day? Isaac has more popularity internationally, but Bandana Dee has the home support of Japan. Both even out in a way if you ask me (because let's face it, Japan is more likely to listen to... Japan).

 

[Ninjaed]

Gee, this is still going on? Can't we just leave it at Isaac and Bandana Dee are both popular and call it a day? Isaac has more popularity internationally, but Bandana Dee has the home support of Japan. Both even out in a way if you ask me (because let's face it, Japan is more likely to listen to... Japan).

I agree there. Regardless of numbers, you also have to remember Japan prefers focusing on Japan in the first place. It may be a business and all, they will still have a bias for Japan, just like how Sakurai has a bias for Fire Emblem and Kirby.

What I am surprised about is... why did Nintendo put all the big ballot winners in the base roster instead of as DLC? If they want DLC to sell, shouldn't they have left Simon and Isabelle as DLC? (I can understand Ridley because not that popular in Japan) Who are they going to sell us now that the biggest requests have made it in? People are speculating but it's pretty much all over the place, they were lacking "rally characters" to voice their support for - only now seeing new names emerge.

 

[Daedulus]

Cite these, or no one is gonna listen to you. If you cited this in an earlier post and I missed it, then whoops lol

just go to the Nintendo Earnings report

 

[WaddleMatt]

Talking about Isaac and Bandana Dee??? Oh boy where do I begin...

 

[KMDP]

just go to the Nintendo Earnings report

Okay, if you're going to give us the the Earnings Report, you're also going to tell us Laymen where exactly to look.

Because to me this is a bunch of business jargon that I don't understand.

Talking about Isaac and Bandana Dee??? Oh boy where do I begin...

"Both are great and deserve to get in based on individual merits unrelated to the other"?

 

[WaddleMatt]

"Both are great and deserve to get in based on individual merits unrelated to the other"?

Exactly!

 

[Daedulus]

Okay, if you're going to give us the the Earnings Report, you're also going to tell us Laymen where exactly to look.

Because to me this is a bunch of business jargon that I don't understand.

"Both are great and deserve to get in based on individual merits unrelated to the other"?

Go to the IR library and you can read the pdf's from the following annual reports, you could also look the graphs of sales by country.

Never said he wasn't, just saying that waddle dee's a lot more likely.

 

[WaddleMatt]

Never said he wasn't, just saying that waddle dee's a lot more likely.

I don't think anyone is really disagreeing there because compared to Isaac he has always had more of a shot it seems.

 

[CodakTheWarrior]

Let’s talk about something else; what’s everyone’s thoughts on Tails making it? Correct me if I’m wron, but I don’t think he’s been seen as a spirit yet...

 

[WaddleMatt]

Let’s talk about something else; what’s everyone’s thoughts on Tails making it? Correct me if I’m wron, but I don’t think he’s been seen as a spirit yet...

Sorry dude,

Also he still appears on Green Hill Zone but then again so does Knuckles who is an Assist Trophy so don't give up hope.

 

[KMDP]

Go to the IR library and you can read the pdf's from the following annual reports, you could also look the graphs of sales by country.

Never said he wasn't, just saying that waddle dee's a lot more likely.

Ah, I had found that bit already.

From those numbers, Nintendo still makes more sales in America and Europe, though as you say the proportions are important too.

This is how I'd break down who the Newcomers (incl. Echoes) appeals to
Worldwide Appeal (Smash & Nintendo Hardcore):
Worldwide Appeal: (FG Hardcore):
Worldwide Appeal (Casual):
American Appeal: (believe me, I don't think Europeans care all that much about Metroid)
Japan Appeal:

All returning Veterans appeal to Hardcore Smash fans, but and also appeal to Casual Nintendo fans. appeals to Hardcore Nintendo fans, and appeals to a wide variety of fans (like Shooter fans, Playstation fans, etc).

Let’s talk about something else; what’s everyone’s thoughts on Tails making it? Correct me if I’m wron, but I don’t think he’s been seen as a spirit yet...

He's been seen as a Spirit, but Spirits are like trophies and Mewtwo and Lucas had trophies in Smash 4 (you know, the game where they were released as DLC), I don't think being a spirit means a whole lot.

Otherwise almost all Nintendo franchises would be barred entry for DLC.

 

[CodakTheWarrior]

Ah I see, I actually don’t want Tails all that much as I think Sonic just deserves a second character at this point. Ideally, Dr Eggman in his mech would be perfect, but any one would do. I’m still so surprised and just in general curious why Shadow just wasn’t made a Sonic echo; it would have made so many people, myself included, super hyped. Oh well.

Honestly, the only two first parties I can think of that are somewhat likely due to not being seen as spirits, and correct me if I’m wrong about this, are Elma and Bandana Dee. I think, unless there are some serious surprise first parties, three of the dlc will be third party apart from these two, if we even get them.

 

[KMDP]

Ah I see, I actually don’t want Tails all that much as I think Sonic just deserves a second character at this point. Ideally, Dr Eggman in his mech would be perfect, but any one would do. I’m still so surprised and just in general curious why Shadow just wasn’t made a Sonic echo; it would have made so many people, myself included, super hyped. Oh well.

Honestly, the only two first parties I can think of that are somewhat likely due to not being seen as spirits, and correct me if I’m wrong about this, are Elma and Bandana Dee. I think, unless there are some serious surprise first parties, three of the dlc will be third party apart from these two, if we even get them.

Maybe they realised Shadow would have been an situation, they'd make so many little changes he could really have been called an Echo anymore.

Or something like that.

 

[WaddleMatt]

I still find it brutal that they didn't show Isaac and Shadow until last, why would they do that? Both of these characters were pretty much expected at that point its quite funny how quick things change.

 

[CodakTheWarrior]

Maybe they realised Shadow would have been an situation, they'd make so many little changes he could really have been called an Echo anymore.

Or something like that.

That’s what I’ve been thinking yeah. Although I still think they could have made him a Ken situation where he is still an echo but with a considerable amount of differences. Still wish we were getting more echoes via dlc, although who knows, he could surprise us.

 

[FlawedAI]

1. I never said you were

2. Yeah

3. Are we talking about just return to dreamland? Because the whole series sold 38.09 million units world wide, EVEN IF EUROPE MADE UP ONLY 10% of the total sales worldwide, it would have still have sold 3.8 million copies there, most europeans have played kirby not golden sun, and since that's all the evidence you gave me.... I think waddle dee's bigger in europe.

4. Bandana dee's popular in japan because the games are popular in Japan because of there cutesy, japanese like style (reminds me of hello kitty).

5. The exit poll had 45,000 people vote...... that is less than 1% of the smash bros player population, yes they did come back, but there are external sources that allowed the characters to appear too.

6. Ridely is proof, the only proof, people liked rideley here, but since the game is developed in japan, they ONLY HEARD US SHOUTING FOR RIDELY, Rideley was SUPER big here, he dwarfs Isaac and Geno TEN FOLD, of course he got in, and what about roy and marth in melee and lucas in brawl?

7. If any of these polls are from the Get Isaac or die Tryn' thread..... I swear

This will be my last comment on the subject, but I'll respond to this:
3. Yes, I'm talking about only Return to Dream Land. Obviously the Kirby series has sold incredibly well, even in Europe, because there are 16 main series Kirby games, and only three Golden Sun games. However, individual trends show that if Golden Sun had continued to receive entries, it probably would have outsold most Kirby games in at least Europe. The vast majority of Kirby's sales come from Japan, while Golden Sun sold very well everywhere, especially for a relatively niche IP with beginner-unfriendly mechanics of an PRG. Yes, it's very likely that more Europeans have played Kirby than Golden Sun, but I'd be willing to bet that most Europeans that voted on the ballot (the thing that helps Nintendo be more aware of worldwide demand) for Isaac.
5. It's called sample size. It's what polls use to try and get a general idea of what's actually happening, and that 45,000 vote exit poll is the largest we have regarding the ballot, and is by far the most accurate in terms of who actually made it.
6. What about Dark Samus? I didn't mention it, but Japan does not like Metroid. In fact, when introducing Dark Samus, Sakurai said it got in due to popularity, and trust me, that didn't come from Japan.
7. What's wrong with me getting my polls from that thread? I understand we will be more likely to report on polls we placed in, but that doesn't change the fact that Isaac placed second worldwide in the exit poll (which the Isaac thread had nothing to do with) and the Reddit tournament thread (in which Isaac also placed second in). Your only poll source is a specifically Japan-exclusive poll that specifically points to Dee. I've produced more sources than you have, and my sources are more reflective of the overall trends of the ballot.

 

[CodakTheWarrior]

I still find it brutal that they didn't show Isaac and Shadow until last, why would they do that? Both of these characters were pretty much expected at that point its quite funny how quick things change.

It does honestly feel like he was teasing us with that, it was honestly entirely necessary to have them out there in the open like that. At least your characters got a highlight in the video; us poor Skull Kid fans had him very casually hidden on the site, he really didn’t care at all about fans of him

 

[WaddleMatt]

It does honestly feel like he was teasing us with that, it was honestly entirely necessary to have them out there in the open like that. At least your characters got a highlight in the video; us poor Skull Kid fans had him very casually hidden on the site, he really didn’t care at all about fans of him

Yea I feel for you, you really got the worst deal out of this.

 

[KMDP]

Your only poll source is a specifically Japan-exclusive poll that specifically points to Dee. I've produced more sources than you have, and my sources are more reflective of the overall trends of the ballot.

If it's the PushDustIn poll, not only is that poll only focusing specifically on Japan, it wasn't even a poll, it was just Push going around Japanese websites (like 2ch/5ch) and counting the number of times certain characters were mentioned (presumably positively), not exactly the most accurate of statistics.

 

[FlawedAI]

If it's the PushDustIn poll, not only is that poll only focusing specifically on Japan, it wasn't even a poll, it was just Push going around Japanese websites (like 2ch/5ch) and counting the number of times certain characters were mentioned (presumably positively), not exactly the most accurate of statistics.

Wow, that just makes it worse. Of course it still shows that Dee is popular in Japan, but it's not even a proper poll and might not even represent player's first choices, if they mentioned Dee positively but he's not their first choice, like me.

 

[RileyXY1]

Ah I see, I actually don’t want Tails all that much as I think Sonic just deserves a second character at this point. Ideally, Dr Eggman in his mech would be perfect, but any one would do. I’m still so surprised and just in general curious why Shadow just wasn’t made a Sonic echo; it would have made so many people, myself included, super hyped. Oh well.

Honestly, the only two first parties I can think of that are somewhat likely due to not being seen as spirits, and correct me if I’m wrong about this, are Elma and Bandana Dee. I think, unless there are some serious surprise first parties, three of the dlc will be third party apart from these two, if we even get them.

I think that Spirits are not actually deconfirmations.

 

[KoopaSaki]

I just think since Nintendo did the selections but sakurai had the final say, do you think nintendo would allow third parties or are we in for just 1st party characters. Also I’m sad Isaac wasn’t in the roster but I still got hope for Matthew to make it in if we get a golden sun 4 next year. I just hope Camelot is developing a new golden sun right now remake or new.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Maybe they realised Shadow would have been an situation, they'd make so many little changes he could really have been called an Echo anymore.

Or something like that.

Shadow can't be an Isabelle situation because he has similar proportions to Sonic, while Isabelle and Villager have different proportions due to their designs being taken from different AC games. Like I've said before, maybe Sakurai didn't think about making Shadow an echo.

 

[SPEN18]

I just think since Nintendo did the selections but sakurai had the final say, do you think nintendo would allow third parties or are we in for just 1st party characters

Sakurai doesn't really have the "final say." It seems that all he can do is veto a character on the basis of them not being feasible to create. And Nintendo would absolutely pick third parties because they make $$.

"Super Smash Bros. Ultimate's DLC line-up is now complete. This time the selection was made entirely by Nintendo. I decide if we can create a fighter based on their selection, then come up with the plan." - Sakurai

 

[KMDP]

Sakurai doesn't really have the "final say." It seems that all he can do is veto a character on the basis of them not being feasible to create. And Nintendo would absolutely pick third parties because they make $$.

"Super Smash Bros. Ultimate's DLC line-up is now complete. This time the selection was made entirely by Nintendo. I decide if we can create a fighter based on their selection, then come up with the plan." - Sakurai

If Sakurai is able to veto certain characters, then by definition he has the final say.

 

[Daedulus]

This will be my last comment on the subject, but I'll respond to this:
3. Yes, I'm talking about only Return to Dream Land. Obviously the Kirby series has sold incredibly well, even in Europe, because there are 16 main series Kirby games, and only three Golden Sun games. However, individual trends show that if Golden Sun had continued to receive entries, it probably would have outsold most Kirby games in at least Europe. The vast majority of Kirby's sales come from Japan, while Golden Sun sold very well everywhere, especially for a relatively niche IP with beginner-unfriendly mechanics of an PRG. Yes, it's very likely that more Europeans have played Kirby than Golden Sun, but I'd be willing to bet that most Europeans that voted on the ballot (the thing that helps Nintendo be more aware of worldwide demand) for Isaac.
5. It's called sample size. It's what polls use to try and get a general idea of what's actually happening, and that 45,000 vote exit poll is the largest we have regarding the ballot, and is by far the most accurate in terms of who actually made it.
6. What about Dark Samus? I didn't mention it, but Japan does not like Metroid. In fact, when introducing Dark Samus, Sakurai said it got in due to popularity, and trust me, that didn't come from Japan.
7. What's wrong with me getting my polls from that thread? I understand we will be more likely to report on polls we placed in, but that doesn't change the fact that Isaac placed second worldwide in the exit poll (which the Isaac thread had nothing to do with) and the Reddit tournament thread (in which Isaac also placed second in). Your only poll source is a specifically Japan-exclusive poll that specifically points to Dee. I've produced more sources than you have, and my sources are more reflective of the overall trends of the ballot.

This'll be my last conversation with this soo... here it goes!

3. Ok, I guess so

5. No. That is not what a sample size is. A sample size is when you take an ACCURATE REPRESENTATION FROM THE COMMUNITY, it does not show the whole community, only fragments of it, For example...... The voted... but maybe the K rool fans opted out, and it doesn't look so good that voter turnout was that low either.

6. What about Dark Samus? She's an echo fighter, they don't have to be the most popular characters in the world to get into smash(as seen by chrom).

7. OK, calm down, that was a Joke(I guess your not the type of Flawed AI that understands humor(LOL)), anyway, the Source Gaming chart is by far the accurate, you can't argue with that, it is about the wants of the fans in Japan, (the part of the world Nintendo cares the most about), it makes sense that they would pay more attention to the Japanese fans than the international fans, the reason why I didn't list any other ballots, are because either they aren't accurate or don't exist, you can list as many small polls as you want, but at the end of the day, non of them are the most accurate forces in the world.

And with that..... I am done!

 

[SPEN18]

If Sakurai is able to veto certain characters, then by definition he has the final say.

But he can't veto for any reason whatsoever. It sounds like he can only veto if he doesn't think that the character is possible from a game dev standpoint. If he can think of a moveset for them, then he can't really veto. Unless he wants to go to his bosses and say "I can't create this character because I don't want them." Nintendo may have consulted Sakurai on some things, but Nintendo seems to be the primary decision maker.

So Sakurai's "final say" only really applies to whether or not the character is possible to create, not how much Sakurai likes said character.

 

[Mogisthelioma]

just like how Sakurai has a bias for Fire Emblem and Kirby.

Please don't say things like that, you might start something pretty flame-y.

If Sakurai is able to veto certain characters, then by definition he has the final say.

The thing is, Sakurai never vetoes a character for bad reasons (at least, not anymore). If he were to veto a character, it would be for reasons involving criteria for being a fighter.

 

[KMDP]

The thing is, Sakurai never vetoes a character for bad reasons (at least, not anymore). If he were to veto a character, it would be for reasons involving criteria for being a fighter.

I never said that Sakurai would veto a character for a bad reason.

All I was doing was countering the notion that Sakurai doesn't have the final say on who gets in (because he does).

 

[Mogisthelioma]

I never said that Sakurai would veto a character for a bad reason.

All I was doing was countering the notion that Sakurai doesn't have the final say on who gets in (because he does).

I guess that's true.

 

[Daedulus]

What do y'all want for dlc (no predictions)

 

[Mogisthelioma]

What do y'all want for dlc (no predictions)

Bandana Waddle Dee
Magolor
Marx
Viridi
Master Chief

 

[GoodGrief741]

What do y'all want for dlc (no predictions)

Characters that fans wanted. Preferably characters that only get in because of fan demand or the ballot.

This game claims to be the ultimate fanservice game, it’s time it starts to act like it.