Shadow had nothing going for him beyond "oh, coincidence." Missing AT and easy Echo since we saw Richter. Nobody credible was vouching for him being playable. Besides that, Ken is the only echo Verg leaked. But more importantly, that echo also was within Incineroar's trailer. It's also possible he never mentioned Richter to keep a few surprises up. His information matched up with almost every trailer, but he knew nothing of K. Rool anyway. He heard rumors we had no DK newcomer, but didn't believe it, thus, never releasing his opinion on it.
It's not a remotely good comparison at all. Honestly, Steve is an iconic character from a series Nintendo and Microsoft are working together with. He's being pushed way more than Shadow lately, having even more merchandise out there. That alone makes Steve likely, since he's a highly popular character, will sell well(though perhaps not as well as some due to controversy), and Nintendo clearly has no issues promoting Minecraft content on their own systems. There's a Creeper 3DS. That proves how Minecraft is important to Nintendo too. Besides that, Sakurai has proven he wants iconic characters too. Steve is vastly more recognizable than the other Rareware choices available(which is mostly Battletoads, Jago, Fulgore, and Banjo & Kazooie at the moment for notable ones. With mainly B&K being the most highly requested).
No, some took the Grinch leak for granted. It was wishful thinking and many ignored the severe issues with the banner. Like how way too convenient each spot was for a newcomer. It was a photoshop job that certainly took more effort than some, but was blatantly a photoshop. It didn't even use the official background correctly, which was 100% the same in every single real mural. The only thing it got remotely close was that Ken was in a similar place and a somewhat similar action pose. That was it. I never thought it was actually real. I was skeptical from the start, and thanks to actual points brought up, found it fake. It was nice fanservice if true, I'll give it that. But it also went against the idea of a "few more coming". It lacked Incineroar, who actually had good reasons to believe he was in, even without Verg. At best he just make people aware of the Pokemon being a viable choice.
You seem to think everybody thought that way. I wasn't even mad the leak was fake. I was more annoyed that it could get a good person in serious trouble than some people being fooled. Again, I'll give it some credit; it certainly was easy to take people in. The issue is some defended it without bothering to give actual evidence. It came out as "It's real cause I said so". That was just awful to deal with, especially for the Moderation. It being fake is what it is. Also, if you paid attention to Sakurai, he said "a few more newcomers left". That would've been almost 10 including Isabelle. That is not a few by any means. 3-5 was the most realistic set of leftover characters to announce by that point. And we got 4 later anyway(1 is DLC).
Verg meanwhile has been actually accurate and made sure to update us on information when it came up. Even if it means he made a mistake earlier, he admitted it. Don't compare it to a bad photoshop leak that did nothing more than cause a split in the fanbase and get people's hopes up just to troll them. Frankly, with the real mural background out, it'd be nice to see actual fun fan murals. Sadly we'll just see bad leaks instead.