Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Shroob]

So the rumours of Fortnite and League of Legends characters are still standing and considered more credible than Geno?

2020 really has turned the world upside down.

I still really don't put much, if any, stock in the League rumor TBH.


No offense Rie, but you're pretty much the only person HARD stanning this rumor, when the only thing it got right was calling a Spirit Event, for a game that Square was HEAVILY marketing at the time.


Gonna take a little more than that to convince me. The fact that they put the leak as "Likely true" in their analysis post awhile ago...... yikes, methinks there's a HEAVY amount of bias showing.



As is, it's literally no different than any 4chan rumor that gets 1 thing right but nothing else to show for it, a lucky guess tbh, and Rie, your willingness to consider it "Likely true" is EXTREMELY clouded by your love for the source material lmao.

 

[xleft]

The thing about the Sora leak from Mondo is that at least that time he shared that without his usual tongue in cheek "Random thing I want to be true is happening because I said so" attitude.
He was straight to the point and made it clear from the start that what he was saying can be backed up by actual insider info he had.

It's also important to acknowledge that "Nintendo tried to get the rights to Sora but they couldn't because Disney didn't let them" isn't exactly an earth-shattering revelation: it's already a reasonable conclusion on his own and it wasn't even the first time we heard something like this as actual insider information: tons of rumors from the begin of the DLC speculation cycle like the Ballot results rumor from 5ch already said something similar to this, and of course Imran Khan mentioned this very same story long before Mondo's post.

Now with his Geno bit, it was always framed as a ****post, and only recently he started treating it as him knowing for sure that he's in, likely because by doing so it can rile up both the Geno supporters (always looking for more confirmation for their precious puppet even though the like to think that the "evidence" they already have is enough to prove that he's in) and Geno haters that are sick and tired of hearing about him.
So like you said, it isn't really worth it to keep into consideration either way.

The Sora stuff is probably bs too
At least this is usually the case when people come out and claim they have insider info and the info in question is a character deconfirmation. Like why would a random person know that Sora was rejected because Disney asked for too much money? It's too excessive info for someone to know, let alone be the only insider info someone has about smash. It just doesn't make sense. If this person claims to have such detailed information, i'm sure he would be able to know more about the rest of the Fighter's Pass no?

 

[Super Devon]

A bit unrelated but:

Steve gets revealed, I was surprised and excited.

Steve comes out, pretty fun, but funnily enough October and so far November are actually the months I've played Smash the least.

I don't really know if I got bored of Smash, or if I'm desperate for the next character already, or both?

 

[Guybrush20X6]

I still really don't put much, if any, stock in the League rumor TBH.


No offense Rie, but you're pretty much the only person HARD stanning this rumor, when the only thing it got right was calling a Spirit Event, for a game that Square was HEAVILY marketing at the time.


Gonna take a little more than that to convince me. The fact that they put the leak as "Likely true" in their analysis post awhile ago...... yikes, methinks there's a HEAVY amount of bias showing.



As is, it's literally no different than any 4chan rumor that gets 1 thing right but nothing else to show for it, a lucky guess tbh, and Rie, your willingness to consider it "Likely true" is EXTREMELY clouded by your love for the source material lmao.

More than a little weird when you get quoted but the post is addressed to a completely different user.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

It's amazing that people would rather and listen to random people on the internet about characters when on several occasions these random people have been wrong, has spread for example the whole Nintendo went to Disney but failed to get Sora stuff. not sure why thats still thrown around like its fact), Etc

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

So the rumours of Fortnite and League of Legends characters are still standing and considered more credible than Geno?

2020 really has turned the world upside down.

Being fair, that League of Legends rumor has a lot going for it.

At this point, the only thing that didn't come true from it are a LoL character and the Hollow Knight outfit + track.

No offense Rie, but you're pretty much the only person HARD stanning this rumor, when the only thing it got right was calling a Spirit Event, for a game that Square was HEAVILY marketing at the time.

Console ports of LoL games?

Not gonna say the leak is absolutely real, but it got more stuff right recently, so it's at least got more credibility than any mention of Geno, yet people lose their **** over the latter and brand the former as fake.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

so it's at least got more credibility than any mention of Geno, yet people lose their **** over the latter and brand the former as fake

I don't think it's fair to compare people being skeptical as **** on something to a different group of people who're infamous for a lack of being skeptical

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

The LoL rumor likely falls into the inverse of the wish fulfillment leak phenomenon. Its not necessarily less credible than any other supposedly leaked character, but because on average far less fans are interested or excited about League of Legends, even related to Smash, there's probably less desire to give it any real credence. I don't really buy it myself, but given my complete apathy towards LoL, that could be playing a factor in that skepticism.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Being fair, that League of Legends rumor has a lot going for it.

At this point, the only thing that didn't come true from it are a LoL character and the Hollow Knight outfit + track.


Console ports of LoL games?

Not gonna say the leak is absolutely real, but it got more stuff right recently, so it's at least got more credibility than any mention of Geno, yet people lose their **** over the latter and brand the former as fake.

There’s that Ruined King game too

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

It's funny how people argue that Sakurai has full freedom about adding Pokemon meaning Sakurai can add whatever he wants besides starters blissfully unaware that he himself said that he asks Game Freak what the next big hit's supposed to be for the upcoming/current generation when deciding.

He asks Game Freak for what could be big hits or just upcoming stuff in general when the upcoming Gen is not even done, but if what he said about Incineroar's selection is anything to go by and how we nearly could've gotten Decidueye instead, Sakurai still has the final say.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

He asks Game Freak for what could be big hits or just upcoming stuff in general when the upcoming Gen is not even done, but if what he said about Incineroar's selection is anything to go by and how we nearly could've gotten Decidueye instead, Sakurai still has the final say.

That's kinda my point, his next choice wasn't a random quirky mon that could have been 'more pokemon-y', but rather another pre-release Pokemon that would have been guaranteed popularity by being a starter. Sakurai has the final say but he specifically wants what Game Freak's pushing or something with guaranteed popularity when the counter argument is "Well maybe Sakurai could be really wacky and give us this random mon because it'd be sooooo unique!"

 

[7NATOR]

Personally, The League of Legends rumor is the most credible right now, because it's gotten things right both for League and Smash

Doesn't mean a League Character will be playable, or that All of the leak is true. it could be another Dante situation (Though with that one I hear the Smash part was from a different guy piggybacking

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

That's kinda my point, his next choice wasn't a random quirky mon that could have been 'more pokemon-y', but rather another pre-release Pokemon that would have been guaranteed popularity by being a starter. Sakurai has the final say but he specifically wants what Game Freak's pushing or something with guaranteed popularity when the counter argument is "Well maybe Sakurai could be really wacky and give us this random mon because it'd be sooooo unique!"

Incineroar was specifically chosen for the moveset he could bring, not because he's what Game Freak would've pushed.

If this entire thing was just a marketing ploy to push for what's popular on Gen 7, we'd have gotten Lycanroc, anything from the Rowlett line or Mimikyu, not the starter who started to have major roles two years after the initial release of the games.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Personally, The League of Legends rumor is the most credible right now, because it's gotten things right both for League and Smash

Doesn't mean a League Character will be playable, or that All of the leak is true. it could be another Dante situation (Though with that one I hear the Smash part was from a different guy piggybacking

Yeah, it could just as easily be a Dante rumor situation

I’d imagine the Ryza rumor was similar; got the Ryza 2 info right but a piggybacker tacked on the Smash info

 

[7NATOR]

Yeah, it could just as easily be a Dante rumor situation

I’d imagine the Ryza rumor was similar; got the Ryza 2 info right but a piggybacker tacked on the Smash info

Personally, The Ryza 2 Rumor was even worse in this regard. It was attached to a Direct Leak that turned out completely false, So it was already very Murky even before Ryza got Deconfirmed for Smash

But for The League leak itself, What would you say is the Killdate for it?

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

But for The League leak itself, What would you say is the Killdate for it?

December 31st 2021 :^)

 

[7NATOR]

December 31st 2021 :^)

I've always wanted to say this, but Your Profile Picture Perfectly matches the type of Responses you make and I don't know How to Explain it, It's like Mental Warfare on my brain

Is this also implying we'll get the last character on December, 31, 2021?

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Is this also implying we'll get the last character on December, 31, 2021?

Given that there's still no words of a delay from the 2021 deadline, it's the last possible date Pass 2 can end on.

 

[RileyXY1]

Personally, The Ryza 2 Rumor was even worse in this regard. It was attached to a Direct Leak that turned out completely false, So it was already very Murky even before Ryza got Deconfirmed for Smash

But for The League leak itself, What would you say is the Killdate for it?

I think that it will be dead if we go 1 or 2 more challenger packs and we still don't have a Hollow Knight premium Mii costume.

 

[Aerospherology]

A bit unrelated but:

Steve gets revealed, I was surprised and excited.

Steve comes out, pretty fun, but funnily enough October and so far November are actually the months I've played Smash the least.

I don't really know if I got bored of Smash, or if I'm desperate for the next character already, or both?

I just haven't really had the time.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I think that it will be dead if we go 1 or 2 more challenger packs and we still don't have a Hollow Knight premium Mii costume.

There’s always the possibility that the LoL character could come WITH the HK costume, but yeah I agree

 

[Megadoomer]

One hundred and twenty-six Geno leaks, one hundred and twenty-six leaks!! You share a link, argue a bit, one hundred and twenty-seven Geno leaks!!

But seriously, the minute someone brings up Geno in a alleged leak or rumor, your expectations should drop like a rock. That's not to say Geno will never be in a rumor that turns out to be true, but so many of them have turned out to be wrong that it's honestly amazing how little people need to see before becoming convinced a leak might have some merit.

I'm not sure if that's a great reason to immediately dismiss an alleged leak on its own - that's like saying that any leak involving Ridley and Banjo-Kazooie was immediately fake because everyone brought them up.

Mind you, there are other reasons to dismiss a supposed leak (Mondo Mega saying that Sora not being in Smash was the only Smash info that they had at the start of October (assuming that they're even being honest about having Smash info to begin with), it's an anonymous text post with no evidence, or (to use an example of a confirmed leak) Vergeben's poor track record for leaking outside of Namco-Bandai games), but saying that a leak's almost certainly fake just because it has Geno in it doesn't seem like the best of reasoning on its own.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Incineroar was specifically chosen for the moveset he could bring, not because he's what Game Freak would've pushed.

If this entire thing was just a marketing ploy to push for what's popular on Gen 7, we'd have gotten Lycanroc, anything from the Rowlett line or Mimikyu, not the starter who started to have major roles two years after the initial release of the games.

Yes, Incineroar was chosen for a moveset, but the only other candidate Sakurai mentioned also happened to be another starter, there's no contradiction here, it's like saying people needing food to survive contradicts how nobody wants to be hit in the face by a pie

You're forgetting the key detail that Sun and Moon came out in 2016 when the project plan for Ultimate was 2015, meaning the popularity of your examples didn't matter. Sakurai himself admitted he asks Game Freak what the hot new thing in town is, but the last 2 Pokemon chosen were chosen quite a while before the games would end up releasing, one of them merely being concept art at that phase. It's not exactly farfetched to see Sakurai go "Aight I want whatever you think the next big Pokemon to be" and Game Freak, not having actually finished on working on the games by the time Sakurai asked, threw Sakurai choices that were guaranteed to be popular, the tried and true starters. Especially as we know Greninja was chosen 2 years prior to XY's release and Incineroar 1 year.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

https://smashboards.com/attachments/1606140266439-png.292542/

We can put that Geno comment to rest then.

Tansut the guy who leaked Cloud for SSB4 and TWEWY info called him out on it.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

https://smashboards.com/attachments/1606140266439-png.292542/

We can put that Geno comment to rest then.

Tansut the guy who leaked Cloud for SSB4 and TWEWY info called him out on it.

Would that mean the Sora isn’t in info is fake as well, or just the Geno claims?

 

[Arcane Jill]

Why is Sora being 100% counted out again? If I remember right, Irman was just spitballing with the "Nintendo tried and Disney said no" thing and in that same video said he feels Sora had a good chance? I know Disney is not the easiest to work with, but Sora has yet to be deconfirmed from what I've seen.

 

[3BitSaurus]

No offense Rie, but you're pretty much the only person HARD stanning this rumor, when the only thing it got right was calling a Spirit Event, for a game that Square was HEAVILY marketing at the time.

As the owner of two threads dedicated to LoL, I'm not putting too much stock in it, either, but... honestly? Every time I see the Mana Spirit event get called a "lucky guess", it kinda reeks of Mandela effect.

Sure, Square was marketing Mana, but they did the same for Octopath and that didn't get a Spirit event until its second anniversary. We have yet to see what they do with Bravely Default 2, as well.

In fact, many were convinced we wouldn't get more content from Square because "Square stingy" or something. So I really don't see how it was obvious - there were some people predicting it, but it was far from a common opinion.

If you want to argue against that rumor, the Hollow Knight Mii costume we haven't got yet (with a very specific piece of music) and the fact that we've had a previous 4chan leak with legit info but a fake Smash tease (the Dante one) are way better arguments tbh.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Yes, Incineroar was chosen for a moveset, but the only other candidate Sakurai mentioned also happened to be another starter, there's no contradiction here, it's like saying people needing food to survive contradicts how nobody wants to be hit in the face by a pie

Yeah, and neither of these starters really got a huge push from Game Freak.

Rowlett, Lycanroc and Mimikyu were by far the most pushed, so to say Game Freak forces choices based on their marketing plans is just wrong.

You're forgetting the key detail that Sun and Moon came out in 2016 when the project plan for Ultimate was 2015, meaning the popularity of your examples didn't matter. Sakurai himself admitted he asks Game Freak what the hot new thing in town is, but the last 2 Pokemon chosen were chosen quite a while before the games would end up releasing, one of them merely being concept art at that phase. It's not exactly farfetched to see Sakurai go "Aight I want whatever you think the next big Pokemon to be" and Game Freak, not having actually finished on working on the games by the time Sakurai asked, threw Sakurai choices that were guaranteed to be popular, the tried and true starters. Especially as we know Greninja was chosen 2 years prior to XY's release and Incineroar 1 year.

Except that in the case of both Greninja and Incineroar, what led to them being picked was how well the gears turned for Sakurai when it come to making a moveset for them based solely on the concept art. There's no "what's the new hot thing?" here whatsoever.

What Sakurai asks for is to see art of Pokemon from upcoming games because he can't really choose a character when he doesn't know what the Pokemon are.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Yeah, and neither of these starters really got a huge push from Game Freak.

Rowlett, Lycanroc and Mimikyu were by far the most pushed, so to say Game Freak forces choices based on their marketing plans is just wrong.


Except that in the case of both Greninja and Incineroar, what led to them being picked was how well the gears turned for Sakurai when it come to making a moveset for them based solely on the concept art. There's no "what's the new hot thing" here whatsoever.

Rowlet and Mimikyu's popularity got pushed after fan reactions with Rowlet, y'know, being a starter, guaranteeing popularity. As for Lycanroc, it barely got pushed at all until USUM, another year later.

Ah, I see, it's simply a mere coincidence that Sakurai ended up choosing a starter twice. I mean, the man says he asks for what's popular and starters always end up popular, so it can't be that Sakurai saw the concept art for the starters specifically knowing they'd be popular but rather he saw aaaaaall the concept art and coincidentally chose starters, how quaint, a 6 in 72 chance for XY and a 6 in 86 chance for SM. It's merely a coincidence that Sakurai's only other option mentioned for a Pokemon character just so happens to be one of those 6 in 86 chances too.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Rowlet and Mimikyu's popularity got pushed after fan reactions with Rowlet, y'know, being a starter, guaranteeing popularity. As for Lycanroc, it barely got pushed at all until USUM, another year later.

Ah, I see, it's simply a mere coincidence that Sakurai ended up choosing a starter twice. I mean, the man says he asks for what's popular and starters always end up popular, so it can't be that Sakurai saw the concept art for the starters specifically knowing they'd be popular but rather he saw aaaaaall the concept art and coincidentally chose starters, how quaint, a 6 in 72 chance for XY and a 6 in 86 chance for SM. It's merely a coincidence that Sakurai's only other option mentioned for a Pokemon character just so happens to be one of those 6 in 86 chances too.

And even then, he would never pick a Pokemon just because it has potential to be popular. Moveset is always the prime reason with him.

But yeah, I can agree with the fact that he picked two starters in a row is nothing more than a coincidence, especially when the Brawl pick was Lucario due to a movie he had, and he wasn't a starter.

 

[7NATOR]

Would that mean the Sora isn’t in info is fake as well, or just the Geno claims?

I think just the Geno Claims were spitballing (and MondoMega likes to hype up Geno and Predict him). I think The Sora info is still in effect perhaps

 

[Rie Sonomura]

NEW TWEWY GAME I REPEAT NEW TWEWY GAME THIS IS NOT A DRILL

Spoiler: My theory

Minamimoto is a party member, so I’m inclined to believe this is a prequel showing before he became a Reaper. Maybe we’ll see more about the Shinjuku Reaper’s Game too, which later ended in the Inversion erasing Shinjuku as seen in A New Day

ALSO I LOVE THE MEGANE GIRL SHES A TOTAL NERD

 

[Cutie Gwen]

And even then, he would never pick a Pokemon just because it has potential to be popular. Moveset is always the prime reason with him.

But yeah, I can agree with the fact that he picked two starters in a row is nothing more than a coincidence, especially when the Brawl pick was Lucario due to a movie he had, and he wasn't a starter.

Woah it's almost like asking what Pokemon will be the popular ones doesn't mean they won't have any moveset potential at all.


Woah it's almost like Lucario's movie released mere months before Sakurai ended up working on Brawl meaning he didn't need to look at Pokemon who didn't exist yet unlike Greninja and Incineroar, meaning there's absolutely no contradiction to reality. The chances Sakurai choosing Greninja if he saw all Kalos mons: 8.3%, 1 in 12. Chances of Sakurai choosing Decidueye or Incineroar if he ended up seeing every mon Alola introduced: 1.16% each, 6 in 86. Such lucky odds to do that twice, don't you think?

 

[RetroBro]

https://smashboards.com/attachments/1606140266439-png.292542/

We can put that Geno comment to rest then.

Tansut the guy who leaked Cloud for SSB4 and TWEWY info called him out on it.

I'm confused, how is this a call out? Just curious.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I'm confused, how is this a call out? Just curious.

Tansut says he misses not being in the loop, meaning he knows what's happening and implying Geno isn't in

NEW TWEWY GAME I REPEAT NEW TWEWY GAME THIS IS NOT A DRILL

Spoiler: My theory

Minamimoto is a party member, so I’m inclined to believe this is a prequel showing before he became a Reaper. Maybe we’ll see more about the Shinjuku Reaper’s Game too, which later ended in the Inversion erasing Shinjuku as seen in A New Day

ALSO I LOVE THE MEGANE GIRL SHES A TOTAL NERD

I swear one of the girls was also shown off in the Switch version and she implied Sho and Neku would need to team up. Considering our poster boy's completely absent here I think he's coming in a future announcement.


Also this thread for the next week or so: "Just because TWEWY's relevant again doesn't mean Neku has a chance!"

Me when that happens: "Holy **** TWEWY with possibly good gameplay"

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

SE missed the chance to name TWEWY 2, TWEWY TOO

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Woah it's almost like asking what Pokemon will be the popular ones doesn't mean they won't have any moveset potential at all.

Woah it's almost like Lucario's movie released mere months before Sakurai ended up working on Brawl meaning he didn't need to look at Pokemon who didn't exist yet unlike Greninja and Incineroar, meaning there's absolutely no contradiction to reality. The chances Sakurai choosing Greninja if he saw all Kalos mons: 8.3%, 1 in 12. Chances of Sakurai choosing Decidueye or Incineroar if he ended up seeing every mon Alola introduced: 1.16% each, 6 in 86. Such lucky odds to do that twice, don't you think?

Are you seriously thinking Game Freak forces Sakurai to only choose between starters due to how Sakurai asks for suggestions before the Gens release?

That would be assuming the starters are the only early Pokemon designed for a Gen, which isn't always the case. Rhydon was the first Pokemon created for Gen 1 despite being #112 for the Kanto Dex, for example. And there's been discoveries of Toxtricity may have been teased in Ultra Sun and Moon on the Game Freak offices, implying he may have been one of the earlier designs as well. There's also Lucario who had his movie long before his Gen released.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

To be honest, TWEWY 2 looks more up my ally in turns of looks and combat compared to the first game. I may actually play this one

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Ok after watching the English version this is definitely a sequel, as we see Hype-Chan and she has a name now (didn’t catch it tho, it went pretty fast)

 

[Cutie Gwen]

English version of the trailer btw

Are you seriously thinking Game Freak forces Sakurai to only choose between starters due to how Sakurai asks for suggestions before the Gens release?

That would be assuming the starters are the only early Pokemon designed for a Gen, which isn't always the case. Rhydon was the first Pokemon created for Gen 1 despite being #112 for the Kanto Dex, for example. And there's been discoveries of Toxtricity may have been teased in Ultra Sun and Moon on the Game Freak offices, implying he may have been one of the earlier designs as well. There's also Lucario who had his movie long before his Gen released.

No, I'm suggesting Sakurai goes "What Pokemon do you think will be popular" to which Game Freaks says "We don't know for sure yet but starters are a safe bet" to which Sakurai then chooses to do starters.


These don't go against what I said and I even said Lucario was already known to the public before Sakurai begun working on Brawl. I'm going to take this as you deliberately not reading what I say from now on