Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Spoiler

Okay so. If I just write a paragraph, it'll just be a novel. So I'll be adding some quick notes with each character. The qualities I'll try to examine are...


General Popularity: Is the character popular to the general populace?

Core Popularity: Is the character popular in their franchise's fanbase?

Smash Popularity: Is the character a popular request in the Smash community?

Importance: Is the character or franchise important to the gaming industry or genre? Franchise importance will be assumed to be a given unless stated otherwise.

Mii Costume: The lack of Mii costumes will be a factor here.

Leak Talk: Are there valid leaks that support this character being included?


Okay, now with that out of the way, here are my top ten picks in no particular order.


Ryu Hayabusa - Core Popularity / Smash Popularity / Importance / Leak Talk

I'll address it now. Ryu has a lot of leaks surrounding him. Add that to the fact that he's a popular character that helped define video games as a whole and I feel confident in his chances. The only issue he really had is that Ninja Gaiden (and Dead or Alive) aren't really giant series. That said, that may be in his favor. He's big enough to be on Nintendo's radar but not so big that he'd cost a mint to get like Steve. Tecmo is also very close with Nintendo so talks should be easy. Overall very likely. Good job Hayabusa.

Geno - Smash Popularity / Mii Costume

Dread it. Run from it. The puppet arrives just the same. Geno is unusual. He's not well known the the public or most Mario fans. You ask a Mario fan to name their top 10 favorite Mario characters and Geno probably won't appear very often. Really all he has is Smash popularity. Fortunately for him, he has a metric **** ton of it. It's his only real strength but it's doing him a lot of favors. He's kind of like a min-maxed character in that regard. The lack of his Mii costume also makes me think he might have been picked. Congrats Geno.

Lloyd Irving - Core Popularity / Smash Popularity / Importance / Mii Costume

I'll admit. I'm biased here. Lloyd is one of my most wanted. I'd scream with joy if he were to be in. Thankfully I think he has a great shot. Tales is a longstanding and historic franchise and Lloyd is the most wanted character in the Smash fandom. Among Tales protagonists, Lloyd is also one of the most important. The Mii costume's absensd also makes me think he might have been picked. I really hope so, anyways.

Monster Hunter - General Popularity / Core Popularity / Smash Popularity / Importance / Mii Costume

Imagine Dragon Quest and how utterly massive it is in Japan. Now imagine that, but add a butt ton of western popularity to it. I won't mince words. Like Inkling, Isabelle and Steve, Monster Hunter is not an if, Monster Hunter is a when. They will be included eventually. I think the franchise is major enough that it can overcome any awkwardness Rathalos already being in the game may add. Heck it may be plus. It's in a similar situation to ARMS if you think about it. And of course, their costume is missing. Could be a clue.

Crash Bandicoot - General Popularity / Core Popularity / Smash Popularity / Importance

Crash! Ahhhhhhhhh! Savior of the Wumpa lands! Dodododoooo! Overall Crash is an icon and not just in gaming spheres. He's a character who has transcended his medium. If Nintendo wants a big character Crash is probably the biggest character they can get. Only iffy part is that Actvision might not play nice. They don't have a bad relationship with Nintendo but it isn't the best.

Rex and Pyra - Core Popularity / Smash Popularity

Oh here we go.... Rex and Pyra are popular characters and requests that would easily represent one of the Switch's main gems in their launch window. And just because I don't want to type Rex and Pyra the whole time, I'll just shorthand it to Rex. Rex is the kind of character Sakurai seems like he would pick and that interview does seem like Sakurai thinks Rex would be a great pick. If Nintendo wants a cheaper character that would satisfy their core fanbase and advertise a less successful franchise, Rex is probably their best bet.

Bandana Waddle Dee - Core Popularity / Smash Popularity / Importance?

Here is a bit of an odd pick. Bandana Waddle Dee is a popular request for Smash. Very popular. Arguably the most popular first party character who isn't an assist trophy. He would be a great pick for the core fanbase and would be cheap to boot. Only issue is that he's got a fair bit against him. Sakurai's potential bias for his Kirby games and supporting cast status hurt his chances. Still I feel his marketability and his overall Popularity supercede that.

Zelda Character - General Popularity / Core Popularity / Smash Popularity / Importance

Okay this one might require some explanation. There's a big trend with every batch of newcomers. We always get one character from a game that is "being played right now." We get a character who is released in a certain time frame as a nice easy way to advertise a current product. In FP1, it was Byleth. In base game, it was Incineroar. In Smash 4 DLC, it was Corrin. In Smash 4 base game it was... well a lot of the newcomers. Anyways I believe the time period to look out for is now to early to mid 2021. Age of Calamity and BotW2 are the games I think will fit in that time frame. I'm not really sure who they would pick, but my personal choice would be Impa.

Arle - Core Popularity / Smash Popularity / Importance

This may be a shock to you, but I think Arle is really likely. Puyo Puyo is a franchise like Fatal Fury. Not setting the world on fire, but its always there and one of the main pillars of its genre. Arle is really popular in Japan and I believe that Puyo Puyo is popular enough in the west to be a viable pick. Nintendo seems to care about the series at least. Shes my dark horse pick.

Nightmare - Core Popularity / Importance

Yeah. Here is my other dark horse pick. Heihachi might have been too hard to make in Smash, but I feel Namco's other 3D fighting series might be easier. Soul Calibur is a franchise that's popular, iconic and successful. While I think Lloyd is more likely, I do feel confident on another Namco character and Nightmare is a great pick for it. Only issue is that Nightmare, while popular isn't a huge Smash request anywhere. At least not that I see

.

well that was underwhelming. I thought it was going to be characters that are barly talked about/said will never happen

 

[Will]

well that was underwhelming. I thought it was going to be characters that are barly talked about/said will never happen

I don't think it would've been Top 10 Most Likely if he was gonna talk about barely mentioned characters.

But I agree, there's no Amingo or Scorpion shilling in sight, clearly the list is flawed.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

well that was underwhelming. I thought it was going to be characters that are barly talked about/said will never happen

Professor...

When I say I'm going to say one thing... why did you expect the opposite?

 

[LucKekkai]

This actually isn't true. Falcom is unable to develop Switch games themselves as of now, so NIS are the ones who port Falcom's games to Switch. Of course, they localize them as well. So if discussions involved bringing things like Cold Steel 3 and 4 to Switch (which the rumor claims), then NIS would be involved since they're the ones who'd be handling the ports.

Also, according to an interview with Falcom's president, there was some sort of "online flaming" going on before the Switch release of Ys VIII that caused NIS to get a call from Nintendo PR asking if they were okay, and if Falcom was okay. I'm probably looking way too deep into it, but seeing as how they contacted NIS instead of going straight to Falcom, I think it's possible that Nintendo may see NIS as sort of being their bridge to Falcom. Of course, that's just speculation on my part.

Though, them being a "bridge" to Falcom would actually be pretty accurate since the Switch probably wouldn't have gotten Ys VIII, Cold Steel 3, or the upcoming Ys IX and Cold Steel 4 without them. Basically, NIS is pretty important to Falcom's presence on Switch. I believe the only Falcom game to not be ported to Switch by NIS was Ys Origin (which isn't one of their newer games).

Anyway, I think the most notable thing about the Falcom rumor was that it called Ys IX coming to Switch as well as PS4, which I don't think was guaranteed to happen since Ys VIII didn't sell too well on Switch in Japan (though the port did better in the west).



The rumor stated that they were unsure if the "spirit event" was a random event or related to the character itself. I'm almost sure this was just a poorly worded way of saying they were unsure if it was a Spirit Board or an event. That said, if the supposed Falcom rep was Adol, then that'd give another explanation for the Spirit Event comment. A Trails of Cold Steel spirit event wouldn't clash with an Ys themed spirit board.

Also, I wouldn't count Estelle not being mentioned as a strike against the rumor. She'd be cool, but I personally don't see her as a particularly likely choice to represent Falcom in Smash. I feel like if Nintendo approached Falcom for a rep, they'd probably go with their longest running and most "iconic" character, Adol Christin, who just makes more sense for multiple reasons (all bias aside).

I'm not saying Estelle's impossible or anything, but I just can't see her being Nintendo's choice for a Falcom rep.

The only way I see her being chosen over Adol is Falcom requesting it themselves, or Sakurai specifically asking to use her. However, according to this, Falcom would say yes to Adol joining Smash without hesitation. Considering that Sakurai himself is apparently an Ys fan, and that Falcom wouldn't be apposed to letting him join at all, I kinda struggle to see a scenario in which the Falcom rep wouldn't be Adol. But perhaps my bias is talking a bit after all...

For more reasons than just those, I think Adol's the clear choice. I'd be fine with Estelle as well, so I hope nobody takes this as me disliking the character or anything. She'd be rad too.



I can't seem to find an exact source for this, but I'm pretty sure it was the Japanese NIS that actually ported Ys VIII to Switch. This was all I could really find on it, but going by the comments, this seems to be the case.

...All of that said, yes, the rumor is probably fake, lol.

Something of note concerning NIS:

Rumor: Nippon Ichi Software Close To Bankruptcy

Today we have some disturbing news to share with you about Nippon Ichi Software, one of the biggest Japanese publishers in the video game industry. A Nippon Ichi Software shareholder report this we…

nintendosoup.com

r/Disgaea - Rumor: Nippon Ichi Software close to bankruptcy

105 votes and 72 comments so far on Reddit

www.reddit.com

While it was just a rumor, and I can't find a follow up story(although I may not be looking in the right place), if it's true then it makes you wonder what happened. If I had to make a wild guess, it's possible that they got a helping hand from someone.

Also, because I feel like it, here is a timeline of events concerning Falcom, XSEED, NIS/NISA, the Switch, and Smash:

Spoiler: Timeline

- Ys VIII is ported to the Switch in 2018, around 6 months before Smash Ultimate's release. I still believe that the Spirit ability "Impact Run" is suspiciously similar to the Bump Mechanic from the Ys games(and I'm not convinced that Marill, Nico Fire or Akari Hayami were the best fits for Impact Run either).

- Langrisser M x Trails in the Sky was announced in January 2019 as well. Just throwing this out there because it's suspicious that they didn't go for either Ys or Cold Steel first. For example, Ys IX was set to release in September of 2019 in Japan(I think they announced it in December of 2018), and CS3's localization was also announced a couple of weeks later.

- In January of 2019, NISA announced the localization for Cold Steel 3.

- Cold Steel 1 is ported to the PS4 by XSEED in March 2019. Just in case people are wondering why I'm mentioning XSEED, it's because they did the localizations for the Sky trilogy and CS1/CS2, so this shows that they are still willing to work with Falcom to some extent despite NISA taking over the localization for CS3.

- Cold Steel 2 is ported to the PS4 by XSEED in June 2019.

- In June of 2019 we hear rumors that NIS is facing financial issues, but they seemed to just go away shortly after.

- Langrisser M x Trails in the Sky was released in June 2019.

- Akatsuki no Kiseki's Switch port was also announced in June of 2019 and released in August 2019, but it's unrelated to NIS/NISA as a different team handled the port(and they didn't even localize it, hence the Japanese name). This is mainly relevant because Akatsuki no Kiseki has Estelle and Rean in it, so they have technically been on the Switch since August 2019(in case people want to argue that characters should at least be present on a Nintendo console before getting into Smash).

- CS3's PS4 localization gets released in October of 2019.

- CS3's Switch port is announced in December of 2019 for Spring 2020(the localized version is postponed to June - both the Spring and June dates strangely line up with ARMS announcement for Smash and Min Min's release).

- XSEED announces a PS4 port of Ys Memories of Celceta in December 2019. Again, I'm bringing this up because this proves that XSEED is still willing to work with Falcom on their games.

- Valkyrie Anatomia x Trails in the Sky SC announced in February 2020 and released in March 2020. Again, just throwing that out there, as it's odd that they chose Trails in the Sky as opposed to Cold Steel.

- CS3's Switch port is released in Japan in March 2020, but postponed until June 2020 for the localized version. ARMS character for Smash was announced a week after CS3's Switch port was released in Japan.

- Langrisser M x Trails of Cold Steel announced in March 2020. This lines up with when CS3's localized Switch port should have been released.

- CS4's PS4 localization is announced on April 1st of 2020, and the Switch port/localization is also announced at this time too. Again, this announcement is strangely close to the time period where we got the announcement for the ARMS character in Smash.

- Ys Memories of Celceta's PS4 port is released in June 2020 by XSEED.

- The "leak" was posted to 4chan on June 20, 2020.

- Ys IX's PS4 localization is announced three days after the "leak", on June 23, 2020. Switch port/localization is also announced at this time too. Literally one day after Min Min was revealed.

- Cold Steel 3's localized Switch port is released on June 30, 2020. Literally one day after Min Min is released. I can't make this crap up.

- Ys Origin's Switch port announced in July 2020.

- Langrisser M x Trails of Cold Steel was released in August 2020.

- Ys Origin's Switch port is released on October 1st... the same day that Steve is revealed. Again, I really can't make this crap up.

- Cold Steel 4's PS4 localization is coming out today.

- Cold Steel 4's Switch port is coming out sometime in early 2021, which could line up with a character reveal/release for Smash.

There may be a few things I'm missing in there(like interviews and AMAs), but you get the idea. Falcom has been busy since early 2019 up until now, lol. Not to mention the coincidences surrounding some of the dates. Anyways, I think people are underestimating Estelle's chances(not just you, but other Falcom fans as well). At least as far as "which Falcom rep would it be, if they got one at all". While I do think Adol would have been the only logical choice for a Falcom rep a few years ago, that just isn't the case anymore(of course he IS still a logical option, just not the only one). Even if you want to argue that Rean has a better chance than Estelle(which I wouldn't considering those Sky collabs), I'd still argue that a Trails character(whether it is Estelle or Rean) is just as likely as Adol is at this point in time, because Trails has become that big. I'd equate it to a situation similar to Joker getting added instead of a Shin Megami Tensei rep.

 

[XorahnGaia]

I honestly think that if Geno is not the next character (or at the very least one of the next two characters) then he's not in at all.
I know, it's a pretty bold claim, and I've shown in the past that I'm kinda biased against him... but let me explain (I'll be putting the major chunks of this post into spoiler tags so the text isn't too invasive):

Spoiler: The Mario Anniversary" factor

The major thing that makes me think this way is something that you probably already guessed: The Mario Anniversary and the fact we're getting a Smash tournament themed around that.
Now, it's highly likely that we aren't seeing the next character (let alone have it in our hands) before that tournament, and that's already a major blow against the puppet chances if ask me. We know for a fact that the timing for Smash reveals are often dictated by marketing (heck, we've seen an example of this recently with Steve being revealed near Minecon). We also know from the Byleth presentation that all of the FP2's characters were decided and locked into place by November 2019. So even if they had other characters in the work, nothing was stopping Nintendo from saying "Hey, can you prioritize work on Geno so we can release him to coincide with the big anniversary we're planning?".
Of course, COVID happened and we don't how much effect it had on the development of the game. But I'd imagine that by being a simpler character
to develop compared to MinMin and Steve, Geno wouldn't have been affected too much.
Either way, even if he theoretically misses the tournament, there are still 3 more months to tie his release to the Anniversary (plus if he's already decided it's not like they can scrap him just because they couldn't develop him in time for the tournament).
Also, it goes without saying, but all of this also applies to any other Mario character they could have chosen for the DLC.

Now, there are few things to consider that don't make 100% confident in this theory:

Spoiler: Counterpoints

First of all the fact that Geno doesn't originate from the main series of Mario platform(which is what the anniversary is all about) may mean that he's not really a priority in the great scheme of Nintendo's plan.
There's also the ambiguity surrounding his Mii costume: the absence of his costume during Hero's presentation was a pretty big eyebrow-raiser for a lot of fans.
I'm just gonna cut to the chase: this doesn't necessarily mean that he's in, it could just mean that they are sitting on it and are just gonna release it with another character... but all of have probably already heard his. Saying that something may not mean anything it's a pretty basic principle of the school of thought of "Hype responsibly".

This last point ties into another side of this argument: Was the Geno costume even supposed to return in Hero's wave and if it was and they decided to upgrade him to a full-fledged character, how much did it affect their original plan for the DLCs?

Spoiler: On "Power of Six Theory", Steve and how Geno may come later than we thought

Let's start from the first point: one thing that a lot of Geno fans became obsessed with ever since July of last year was the so-called "Power of six theory" (by the way, I kinda hate the name of this theory. It probably has something to do with a certain individual repeating it ad nauseam but other than that I also find it pretentious and it doesn't fully indicate what the theory is all about): basically every fighter in the First pass was supposed to bring six Mii costume with him, but since around E3 they decide to do another season, Joker's wave was the only one that followed this plan. So Hero's wave was always supposed to include the returning Geno and Chocobo costumes, just like Terry's wave was supposed to include Heihachi.
I already explained why the absence of the costume isn't necessarily a good sign for the character's inclusion and Heihachi is a prime example of that.
So, let's also ask ourselves this extremely provocative question: if the Smash team already has the right for the Geno Mii costume secured, what has changed in the time frame between FP1 and FP2 to make them try to upgrade him to a new fighter, considering that whey would probably have to do another round of negotiation with Square for that (they had to this for something apparently trivial as having the permission to play every song in the game on Battlefield and FD after all) and that Geno situation as a character from a 20-year-old spin-off that wasn't even released worldwide is still intact (unless the rumors about a remake of SMRPG are true, but those are too flimsy to really consider them at the moment).

Then again, maybe the "Power of six theory" is bull and Geno Mii costume was never supposed to return in hero's wave, maybe it wasn't supposed to return at all initially. Bypassing all of the other roadblocks that I just listed (mainly as a result of recognizing that the fan-demand for the character is worth the hassle), Nintendo decided to add him as a part of FP2.
And is where I explain why I think there's a chance that Geno will be a part of the second half of FP2.
Ever since it was revealed that Steve negotiations were a 5-year process I quickly coupled this fact with Sakurai saying that they "initially planned to add just 1-2 characters after the end of FP1". So yeah, maybe the original plan was always to make a couple more fighters as a "bonus" after the end of FP1, regardless of the pass selling well over expectations or not, and after E3 2019 they decided to add other characters to them to make it a full pass, one them being Geno (of course this could be the case even if the costume was supposed to return with Hero or not, I just thought it was important to explore both the possibility). At that point, Geno's position is entirely dependant on who the other fighters are: maybe they are all "hype" choices and Geno will be the cherry on top and be the Fighetr#81, maybe the notion that "Smash reveals never end on a high note" remains true and so Geno will be revealed asap to be the final push for sales. We won't know until we see how the rest of the fighter pass plays out.

... So yeah even if opened up this wall of text with a pretty definitive take I end up being a lot less certain than I initially thought.
Again, everything that surrounded Steve's reveal made me think a lot about what's in store for us next and don't want to necessarily exclude any possibility
Maybe all that I said doesn't matter and I overthought irrelevant details, I certainly not entirely proud of using a theory run to the ground by the geon thread as a centerpiece of my argument, but it was just too convenient of shorthand for "the hypothetical original plan in which the Geno and Chocobo costume return with Hero that didn't pan out for one reason or the other".

Well, I say this post has gone over long enough, I apologize if I made a fool of myself (It wouldn't be the first time that I did that on these boards), and let me know what you think.

 

[osby]

This last point ties into another side of this argument: Was the Geno costume even supposed to return in Hero's wave and if it was and they decided to upgrade him to a full-fledged character, how much did it affect their original plan for the DLCs?

Spoiler: On "Power of Six Theory", Steve and how Geno may come later than we thought

Let's start from the first point: one thing that a lot of Geno fans became obsessed with ever since July of last year was the so-called "Power of six theory" (by the way, I kinda hate the name of this theory. It probably has something to do with a certain individual repeating it ad nauseam but other than that I also find it pretentious and it doesn't fully indicate what the theory is all about): basically every fighter in the First pass was supposed to bring six Mii costume with him, but since around E3 they decide to do another season, Joker's wave was the only one that followed this plan. So Hero's wave was always supposed to include the returning Geno and Chocobo costumes, just like Terry's wave was supposed to include Heihachi.
I already explained why the absence of the costume isn't necessarily a good sign for the character's inclusion and Heihachi is a prime example of that.
So, let's also ask ourselves this extremely provocative question: if the Smash team already has the right for the Geno Mii costume secured, what has changed in the time frame between FP1 and FP2 to make them try to upgrade him to a new fighter, considering that whey would probably have to do another round of negotiation with Square for that (they had to this for something apparently trivial as having the permission to play every song in the game on Battlefield and FD after all) and that Geno situation as a character from a 20-year-old spin-off that wasn't even released worldwide is still intact (unless the rumors about a remake of SMRPG are true, but those are too flimsy to really consider them at the moment).

Then again, maybe the "Power of six theory" is bull and Geno Mii costume was never supposed to return in hero's wave, maybe it wasn't supposed to return at all initially. Bypassing all of the other roadblocks that I just listed (mainly as a result of recognizing that the fan-demand for the character is worth the hassle), Nintendo decided to add him as a part of FP2.
And is where I explain why I think there's a chance that Geno will be a part of the second half of FP2.
Ever since it was revealed that Steve negotiations were a 5-year process I quickly coupled this fact with Sakurai saying that they "initially planned to add just 1-2 characters after the end of FP1". So yeah, maybe the original plan was always to make a couple more fighters as a "bonus" after the end of FP1, regardless of the pass selling well over expectations or not, and after E3 2019 they decided to add other characters to them to make it a full pass, one them being Geno (of course this could be the case even if the costume was supposed to return with Hero or not, I just thought it was important to explore both the possibility). At that point, Geno's position is entirely dependant on who the other fighters are: maybe they are all "hype" choices and Geno will be the cherry on top and be the Fighetr#81, maybe the notion that "Smash reveals never end on a high note" remains true and so Geno will be revealed asap to be the final push for sales. We won't know until we see how the rest of the fighter pass plays out.

... So yeah even if opened up this wall of text with a pretty definitive take I end up being a lot less certain than I initially thought.
Again, everything that surrounded Steve's reveal made me think a lot about what's in store for us next and don't want to necessarily exclude any possibility
Maybe all that I said doesn't matter and I overthought irrelevant details, I certainly not entirely proud of using a theory run to the ground by the geon thread as a centerpiece of my argument, but it was just too convenient of shorthand for "the hypothetical original plan in which the Geno and Chocobo costume return with Hero that didn't pan out for one reason or the other".

Well, I say this post has gone over long enough, I apologize if I made a fool of myself (It wouldn't be the first time that I did that on these boards), and let me know what you think.

Power of Six is one of the dumbest theories around and relies on nothing but F***** moving goalposts.

A fighter coming with six costumes? Supporting evidence.
A fighter coming with five costumes? Supporting evidence.
A fighter coming with four costumes? Screw it, everything is supporting evidence when it comes to Geno.

If you can't disprove a theory, it's almost certainly false.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Nightmare - Core Popularity / Importance

Yeah. Here is my other dark horse pick. Heihachi might have been too hard to make in Smash, but I feel Namco's other 3D fighting series might be easier. Soul Calibur is a franchise that's popular, iconic and successful. While I think Lloyd is more likely, I do feel confident on another Namco character and Nightmare is a great pick for it. Only issue is that Nightmare, while popular isn't a huge Smash request anywhere. At least not that I see.

HE'S POPULAR IN MY HEART, DAMMIT!!!!

-ahem- The other 9 are solid contenders too and I fully agree on all of them (though Lloyd would be a more vague "Tales rep" in my mind), but I'm so happy to see one of my most wanteds mentionned

Maybe now we could actually do some specula on the Azure Knight. That'd make my day lmao.

With that said, I think the complexities for Heihachi isn't in the mechanics, but the fact that Smash would bring some extreme limitations in terms of moveset since Tekken move lists are ****ing massive. Like, Heihachi's moves are in the triple digits, iirc. That's the problem imo; a moveset so huge it's overwhelming.

Soul Calibur is no slouch in move list size either, though Nightmare's stance system might work as a good equalizer in that aspect. It'd also be great to see Nightmare and Link get a rematch in the former's classic route.

 

[ceterisparibus]

I'm going to be upfront about it and say that a lot of "justification" for Hayabusa is inflated - he's not the last or a major NES star to be included (there's a whole world of difference between Megaman/Castlevania in terms of overall entries/influence/sales compared to NG), 'connection to Nintendo" doesn't say anything given how chummy Nintendo and Ubisoft have been and yet they ignored the latter's requests to put Rayman repeatedly.

Sure, he might still get in irregardless given how the pool of candidates shrink with each new inclusion and we move on to lesser-known IPs, or hey! Maybe Nintendo wants to find a character that's cheaper to round off the pass. But the reasoning given is largely exaggerated and does not reflect the current nor even the previous state of NG as a franchise.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

I'm going to be upfront about it and say that a lot of "justification" for Hayabusa is inflated - he's not the last or a major NES star to be included (there's a whole world of difference between Megaman/Castlevania in terms of overall entries/influence/sales compared to NG), 'connection to Nintendo" doesn't say anything given how chummy Nintendo and Ubisoft have been and yet they ignored the latter's requests to put Rayman repeatedly.

I agree on everything but Ninja Gaiden not being a major NES star.

Ninja Gaiden started the concept of ninja-based platformers, and we've gotten more than out fair share of those (insert shill message telling you to play The Messenger here because that game is ****ing dope), so it's definitely got a lot of influence on the platforming genre. Just because it's not as huge as Mega Man or Castlevania doesn't mean it ain't huge at all.

Still, every other point is correct; he's not the last NEStalgia pick left (Ghost n' Goblins and Contra immediately come to my mind, among others) and being chummy with Nintendo doesn't mean much. Heck, Bandai Namco helped make Nintendo games since the mid-2000s and it took until Smash 4 to get a character, with Pac-Man having been outright ignored in Brawl and only added as a way to thank them for helping with 4 to begin with, iirc.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I'm going to be upfront about it and say that a lot of "justification" for Hayabusa is inflated - he's not the last or a major NES star to be included (there's a whole world of difference between Megaman/Castlevania in terms of overall entries/influence/sales compared to NG), 'connection to Nintendo" doesn't say anything given how chummy Nintendo and Ubisoft have been and yet they ignored the latter's requests to put Rayman repeatedly.

Sure, he might still get in irregardless given how the pool of candidates shrink with each new inclusion and we move on to lesser-known IPs, or hey! Maybe Nintendo wants to find a character that's cheaper to round off the pass. But the reasoning given is largely exaggerated and does not reflect the current nor even the previous state of NG as a franchise.

Ehhhhh I fail to see how Ninja Gaiden's influence is inflated as cutscenes, a norm for video games for decades, was revolutionary when Ninja Gaiden first did it and showed what you could do with it.

Bandai Namco helped make Nintendo games since the mid-2000s and it took until Smash 4 to get a character, with Pac-Man having been outright ignored in Brawl

Pac Man wasn't ignored, he was outright rejected by Sakurai then

 

[osby]

Heck, Bandai Namco helped make Nintendo games since the mid-2000s and it took until Smash 4 to get a character, with Pac-Man having been outright ignored in Brawl and only added as a way to thank them for helping with 4 to begin with, iirc.

Pac-Man wasn't ignored in Brawl. Sakurai outright explained that he wasn't included because he wasn't able to find a moveset for him.

It's the first time I'm hearing your second point so I'd appreciate a source.

EDIT:

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Pac Man wasn't ignored, he was outright rejected by Sakurai then

That's what I was trying to say, but my brain forgot the word "rejection" existed for a moment.

Still, goes to show being buddies doesn't mean your characters are guarantees. rhyming is fully intentional

 

[Cutie Gwen]

That's what I was trying to say, but my brain forgot the word "rejection" existed for a moment.

Still, goes to show being buddies doesn't mean your characters are guarantees. rhyming is fully intentional

Ah yes, my favourite SMT meme. One more god ignored, uttered by the player when turning the game off 5 minutes in and returning the game to the store

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Pac-Man wasn't ignored in Brawl. Sakurai outright explained that he wasn't included because he wasn't able to find a moveset for him.

It's the first time I'm hearing your second point so I'd appreciate a source.

Looked back just to be safe.

"Since I am creating the new Smash Bros. in cooperation with Bandai-Namco Games, it makes sense to include one of their characters, and Pac-Man is perhaps Namco’s most iconic character, so Pac-Man should join the fray."

Source: https://sourcegaming.wordpress.com/2015/06/26/800/

And I was slightly wrong, yet not that wrong. He didn't outright say it was only because of that, but that it made sense do so because Bamco helped.

 

[Calane]

Something of note concerning NIS:

Rumor: Nippon Ichi Software Close To Bankruptcy

Today we have some disturbing news to share with you about Nippon Ichi Software, one of the biggest Japanese publishers in the video game industry. A Nippon Ichi Software shareholder report this we…

nintendosoup.com

r/Disgaea - Rumor: Nippon Ichi Software close to bankruptcy

105 votes and 72 comments so far on Reddit

www.reddit.com

While it was just a rumor, and I can't find a follow up story(although I may not be looking in the right place), if it's true then it makes you wonder what happened. If I had to make a wild guess, it's possible that they got a helping hand from someone.

Also, because I feel like it, here is a timeline of events concerning Falcom, XSEED, NIS/NISA, the Switch, and Smash:

Spoiler: Timeline

- Ys VIII is ported to the Switch in 2018, around 6 months before Smash Ultimate's release. I still believe that the Spirit ability "Impact Run" is suspiciously similar to the Bump Mechanic from the Ys games(and I'm not convinced that Marill, Nico Fire or Akari Hayami were the best fits for Impact Run either).

- Langrisser M x Trails in the Sky was announced in January 2019 as well. Just throwing this out there because it's suspicious that they didn't go for either Ys or Cold Steel first. For example, Ys IX was set to release in September of 2019 in Japan(I think they announced it in December of 2018), and CS3's localization was also announced a couple of weeks later.

- In January of 2019, NISA announced the localization for Cold Steel 3.

- Cold Steel 1 is ported to the PS4 by XSEED in March 2019. Just in case people are wondering why I'm mentioning XSEED, it's because they did the localizations for the Sky trilogy and CS1/CS2, so this shows that they are still willing to work with Falcom to some extent despite NISA taking over the localization for CS3.

- Cold Steel 2 is ported to the PS4 by XSEED in June 2019.

- In June of 2019 we hear rumors that NIS is facing financial issues, but they seemed to just go away shortly after.

- Langrisser M x Trails in the Sky was released in June 2019.

- Akatsuki no Kiseki's Switch port was also announced in June of 2019 and released in August 2019, but it's unrelated to NIS/NISA as a different team handled the port(and they didn't even localize it, hence the Japanese name). This is mainly relevant because Akatsuki no Kiseki has Estelle and Rean in it, so they have technically been on the Switch since August 2019(in case people want to argue that characters should at least be present on a Nintendo console before getting into Smash).

- CS3's PS4 localization gets released in October of 2019.

- CS3's Switch port is announced in December of 2019 for Spring 2020(the localized version is postponed to June - both the Spring and June dates strangely line up with ARMS announcement for Smash and Min Min's release).

- XSEED announces a PS4 port of Ys Memories of Celceta in December 2019. Again, I'm bringing this up because this proves that XSEED is still willing to work with Falcom on their games.

- Valkyrie Anatomia x Trails in the Sky SC announced in February 2020 and released in March 2020. Again, just throwing that out there, as it's odd that they chose Trails in the Sky as opposed to Cold Steel.

- CS3's Switch port is released in Japan in March 2020, but postponed until June 2020 for the localized version. ARMS character for Smash was announced a week after CS3's Switch port was released in Japan.

- Langrisser M x Trails of Cold Steel announced in March 2020. This lines up with when CS3's localized Switch port should have been released.

- CS4's PS4 localization is announced on April 1st of 2020, and the Switch port/localization is also announced at this time too. Again, this announcement is strangely close to the time period where we got the announcement for the ARMS character in Smash.

- Ys Memories of Celceta's PS4 port is released in June 2020 by XSEED.

- The "leak" was posted to 4chan on June 20, 2020.

- Ys IX's PS4 localization is announced three days after the "leak", on June 23, 2020. Switch port/localization is also announced at this time too. Literally one day after Min Min was revealed.

- Cold Steel 3's localized Switch port is released on June 30, 2020. Literally one day after Min Min is released. I can't make this crap up.

- Ys Origin's Switch port announced in July 2020.

- Langrisser M x Trails of Cold Steel was released in August 2020.

- Ys Origin's Switch port is released on October 1st... the same day that Steve is revealed. Again, I really can't make this crap up.

- Cold Steel 4's PS4 localization is coming out today.

- Cold Steel 4's Switch port is coming out sometime in early 2021, which could line up with a character reveal/release for Smash.

There may be a few things I'm missing in there(like interviews and AMAs), but you get the idea. Falcom has been busy since early 2019 up until now, lol. Not to mention the coincidences surrounding some of the dates. Anyways, I think people are underestimating Estelle's chances(not just you, but other Falcom fans as well). At least as far as "which Falcom rep would it be, if they got one at all". While I do think Adol would have been the only logical choice for a Falcom rep a few years ago, that just isn't the case anymore(of course he IS still a logical option, just not the only one). Even if you want to argue that Rean has a better chance than Estelle(which I wouldn't considering those Sky collabs), I'd still argue that a Trails character(whether it is Estelle or Rean) is just as likely as Adol is at this point in time, because Trails has become that big. I'd equate it to a situation similar to Joker getting added instead of a Shin Megami Tensei rep.

Hmm, very interesting. I actually didn't know some of this, lol. Perhaps I actually was underestimating Estelle's chances a bit. She definitely has things going for her, and you've helped me see that, so thanks.

I guess I should probably explain why I said Adol was the "clear choice".

Basically, Ys has made more Nintendo appearances than any other Falcom series (as far as I know), and Adol is the company's longest running character, the star of one of their flagship IPs, and is arguably their most "iconic" character. On top of that, Sakurai himself is apparently an Ys fan. I just thought that if Nintendo went for a Falcom character, Adol might've been the first choice that came up, and I don't think Falcom would have refused if Sakurai wanted to use him.

Also, I'm not sure if the popularity divide between Ys and Trails is as large as the one between SMT and Persona, but I see what you're saying.

To ask a question, if Shin Megami Tensei had one main protagonist that was there from the start of the franchise and still continued having new games to this day, do you think Joker still would've been chosen over him/her?

To ask another question, who would you say is the "face" of Falcom? Like Mario is for Nintendo, or Sonic for Sega. I feel like that'd be Adol, but maybe Sakurai or Falcom themselves would see it differently.

In any case, if Falcom were to get a rep and it turned out being Estelle (or Rean), I'd still pretty much be guaranteed some Ys music and maybe an Adol Mii Costume to go along with all the Trails/Falcom content. I imagine it'd be the same if Adol was chosen over Estelle (and Rean). In the end, we'd all pretty much win, so I don't think it's too much of a competition for who a Falcom rep should/would be.


Whether it'd be Adol, Estelle, Rean, or pretty much any other potential Falcom rep, they'd all be rad, and I hope we get to see at least one of them make it in someday.

 

[JOJONumber691]

I think Adol lacks the Nintendo Connection and Moveset Potential to make it in as a full on Fighter. I definitely think a Mii Costume will probably happen though. I haven't played his games though, so this opinion is from an outsider looking in after a little bit of research.

 

[XorahnGaia]

Power of Six is one of the dumbest theories around and relies on nothing but F***** moving goalposts.

A fighter coming with six costumes? Supporting evidence.
A fighter coming with five costumes? Supporting evidence.
A fighter coming with four costumes? Screw it, everything is supporting evidence when it comes to Geno.

If you can't disprove a theory, it's almost certainly false.

And I don't disagree with this.
As I said, I only used it as shorthand for the ambiguity surrounding the Geno Mii costume.

 

[drag0nscythe]

I think Adol lacks the Nintendo Connection and Moveset Potential to make it in as a full on Fighter. I definitely think a Mii Costume will probably happen though. I haven't played his games though, so this opinion is from an outsider looking in after a little bit of research.

Moveset potential does not matter. Fox and Falcon and Rob And Mr Game and Watch and even Steve attribute to that. but I do think he is more in line for a Mii Costume at the moment. Along with Ryu H, Sissel, Phoenix, and Contra dudes.

 

[Calane]

I think Adol lacks the Nintendo Connection and Moveset Potential to make it in as a full on Fighter. I definitely think a Mii Costume will probably happen though. I haven't played his games though, so this opinion is from an outsider looking in after a little bit of research.

I'd say he has plenty of both myself. To quote an old post of mine:

"The Famicom had a version of Ys I, II, and III.

The SNES had a version of Ys III.

The Super Famicom had a version of Ys IV (Mask of the Sun). Ys V was also released for it as well.

The DS had a version of Ys I & II. (Ys I & II was also released on the Wii Virtual Console when that was a thing).

As you already know, the Switch has a version of Ys VIII.

Of course, Ys Origin and Ys IX are now coming to Switch as well."

I think that's enough to give him a "Nintendo Connection".

As for moveset potential, he actually has quite a lot, but almost any character ever can have moveset potential.

There's a bunch of different gimmicks I could pull out, like being able to switch between the three elemental swords from Ark of Napishtim that each alter his fighting style, utilizing the weapon type mechanic that has him switching between Slash, Strike, and Pierce weapons that also each alter his fighting style like he could equip in Ys Seven, giving him a "bump combat" mechanic that allows him to damage foes just by walking/running into them (though this could be added in addition to any other gimmicks he could have), giving him that "Crimson Line" thing from IX that allows him to teleport himself over to stuff, and a bunch of other things I could probably mention.

I would assume that most of his moveset would be made up of the skills he learns in games like Ys Seven, Celceta, VIII, and IX, which would give him plenty to work with in terms of regular moves and specials.

I think people might see Adol and just think "guy with sword", but there actually are things he could bring to the table.

 

[drag0nscythe]

I also think the "Nintendo Connection" Is flimsy at best. It does not matter. Cloud is more well known for Playstation then Nintendo. And then we have Joker, which has people looking at a small spin off game to justify him being included. Fact is that being connected to Nintendo does not matter.

----

And here is a thought. If they do add Ryo, if you play classic on anything below 4, every character insults you as play. would be a great feature.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Professor...

When I say I'm going to say one thing... why did you expect the opposite?

Maybe Im stupid and read over what you said wrong. I think I took likeliest to be characters thaty werent in the speculation that were also likely but looked over

but lets just go wityh "stupid"

 

[3BitSaurus]

I also think the "Nintendo Connection" Is flimsy at best. It does not matter. Cloud is more well known for Playstation then Nintendo. And then we have Joker, which has people looking at a small spin off game to justify him being included. Fact is that being connected to Nintendo does not matter.

To be fair, the fact that we got Cloud and Joker means it's not a requirement, but considering they're just two out of fifteen playable third party characters, I'd argue it doesn't hurt to have it either.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Moveset Potential to make it in as a full on Fighter.

Are people still going on with this argument even after?

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

everytime I see someone say Estelle, I think you are talking about the ToV Estelle

 

[ceterisparibus]

I agree on everything but Ninja Gaiden not being a major NES star.

Ninja Gaiden started the concept of ninja-based platformers, and we've gotten more than out fair share of those (insert shill message telling you to play The Messenger here because that game is ****ing dope), so it's definitely got a lot of influence on the platforming genre. Just because it's not as huge as Mega Man or Castlevania doesn't mean it ain't huge at all.

Still, every other point is correct; he's not the last NEStalgia pick left (Ghost n' Goblins and Contra immediately come to my mind, among others) and being chummy with Nintendo doesn't mean much. Heck, Bandai Namco helped make Nintendo games since the mid-2000s and it took until Smash 4 to get a character, with Pac-Man having been outright ignored in Brawl and only added as a way to thank them for helping with 4 to begin with, iirc.

What "ninja-based platformers" are we even talking about here? That's a weirdly specific niche that doesn't show anything big at all. I haven't seen any indication that plaformers were largely influenced by NG. My point was clear that there's a huge difference between the sales/recognition that Megaman/Castlevania has compared to the rest of the pack, of which NG falls into the latter (and you agree in that regard!). Whether or not you think those are worthy of smash playability....now that's another thing altogether.

Ehhhhh I fail to see how Ninja Gaiden's influence is inflated as cutscenes, a norm for video games for decades, was revolutionary when Ninja Gaiden first did it and showed what you could do with it.

Pac Man wasn't ignored, he was outright rejected by Sakurai then

....what cutscenes? That's an incredibly odd niche to even focus on, especially when no one is even talking about - i can find many other small and miniscule things that other video games managed to "introduce and revolutionize". It's pretty clear there isn't much that NG even has to show in that regard.

Of course, this doesn't mean he has a zero chance, mind you! I just find the idea that the game is some kind of "star icon" to be included to be largely exaggerated.

 

[drag0nscythe]

Pac-Man (1980) is frequently credited as the first game to feature cutscenes.
Ninja Gaiden is renowned for its elaborate story and usage of anime-like cinematic cutscenes.

But it was not the first. Also see game series that is more popular in America. Which tells me that it has less of a chance.

 

[Deleted member]

Are people still going on with this argument even after?

Honestly, given everything Piranha Plants have done throughout the games, I'd say he had tons of potential, we just never saw it because we didn't think outside the box like Sakurai did.

I mean, in Mario Kart Double Dash, he was already a Kart Racer, so we knew his petals could be used as hands. In Mario Sunshine (or was it Galaxy?) we saw a Giant Petey Piranha walking around and swinging giant cages (hence the Final Smash and, again, shown ability to carry objects and walk around).

In Mario 3 (world 6 specifically) we've seen throw the Spike Balls or hover them over their heads at varying heights. That was also the world where they were first shown to be able to walk around outside a pipe.

They've always been able to extend out from their pipes (some more than others) and spewing poison was from some of the newer Mario games.

And he didn't even get the ability to throw fireballs like in basically every Mario game available.

Just about the only thing that was 'invented' for his moveset was his Up B where he just copters himself up to the platform. They've had wings in some games allowing them to jump (and hover for a bit) out of pipes so they could have gone with that if they really needed to. The rest of the ones you mentioned though, yeah, they had to really get creative there with those movesets.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Capcom should make a sequal to Okamiden where its Chibiturasu as a big boy

 

[JOJONumber691]

Moveset potential does not matter. Fox and Falcon and Rob And Mr Game and Watch and even Steve attribute to that. but I do think he is more in line for a Mii Costume at the moment. Along with Ryu H, Sissel, Phoenix, and Contra dudes.

Adol is one of those characters who scream Base Game to me. I don't think Adol is happening. I'm sure he could get in, but I don't see it considering his relative obscurity in comparison to even Banjo. I definitely think Adol could happen, he's just a character I feel like has missed their shot considering the DLC so far. I feel the same way about Geno and Waluigi so I will just say the same thing for those two as well.

 

[kirbsmash]

I mean, in Mario Kart Double Dash, he was already a Kart Racer, so we knew his petals could be used as hands. In Mario Sunshine (or was it Galaxy?) we saw a Giant Petey Piranha walking around and swinging giant cages (hence the Final Smash and, again, shown ability to carry objects and walk around).

That was Petey, not PP as an character. and no, THAT cage thing was in Brawl. Mario Sunshine didn't have the cages.

Just about the only thing that was 'invented' for his moveset was his Up B where he just copters himself up to the platform. They've had wings in some games allowing them to jump (and hover for a bit) out of pipes so they could have gone with that if they really needed to. The rest of the ones you mentioned though, yeah, they had to really get creative there with those movesets.

this is incorrect also, it's based on Jumping Piranha Plant from Super Mario World, my friend.

 

[SpectreJordan]

On the flip side, just because it is old does not guarantee it a spot either. Commonly going "Legacy" does not give it more credence then newer characters. Most fan picks all fall into this zone.

I didn’t say it did nor did anyone else. People were explaining why Ninja Gaiden is an important series & why it could potentially be selected to join Smash.

It seems like you just don’t want Hayabusa in, which is fine. But you should just say that instead of trying to downplay Ninja Gaiden.

Smash Ultimate’s DLC has been crazy. We’ve gotten the biggest game of all-time, a pop culture mega icon in Japan, a fan favorite series that hasn’t had a game in 12 years (), all the way down to a niche fighting game that just debuted 3 years ago.

We could get something smaller but important like Ninja Gaiden. We could get the American equivalent of Dragon Quest with Halo. We could get a small Japanese centric franchise like Ys. We could get another Japanese mega icon like Monster Hunter. We could even get a modern, western Indie hit like Hollow Knight. The sky is the limit. There’s tons of valid reasons for a loooot of characters.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

Pac-Man (1980) is frequently credited as the first game to feature cutscenes.
Ninja Gaiden is renowned for its elaborate story and usage of anime-like cinematic cutscenes.

But it was not the first. Also see game series that is more popular in America. Which tells me that it has less of a chance.

Funny you mention Pac-Man cuz iirc, it was intially just a modest success in Japan, and only really made a name for itself once it hit North America

 

[Michael the Spikester]

The idea that Banjo let alone Terry has more legacy than Ryu Hayabusa is laughable and this is coming from a guy who likes Banjo more as a character.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

its hard to contribute to this convo when you have no feelings toword the Speculation flavor of the month

 

[drag0nscythe]

The idea that Banjo let alone Terry has more legacy than Ryu Hayabusa is laughable and this is coming from a guy who likes Banjo more as a character.

This is bias speaking. Banjo I can agree with, but Terry does have more legacy then Ryu. This board is over inflating Ryus impact on the gaming industry.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

....what cutscenes? That's an incredibly odd niche to even focus on, especially when no one is even talking about - i can find many other small and miniscule things that other video games managed to "introduce and revolutionize". It's pretty clear there isn't much that NG even has to show in that regard.

It's not an 'odd niche' when it literally set the first stone on stories in video games, the entire NES Trilogy had multiple animated cutscenes throughout the main story showing what happened in between the levels, which no other game did at the time. Every time I hear someone say Ninja Gaiden influenced gaming as a medium, I've always seen that brought up by those people at least once. The fact that you asked about the cutscenes tells me you're unfamiliar with the franchise, so if you just don't like Hayabusa, that's fine

The idea that Banjo let alone Terry has more legacy than Ryu Hayabusa is laughable and this is coming from a guy who likes Banjo more as a character.

Considering Terry's a SNK rep, his legacy includes crossovers, 3v3 fighters, super moves and parrying, all of these being the most important additions to the genre after SF2 accidentally inventing combos, that's also incredibly strong legacy I'd say

 

[Michael the Spikester]

This is bias speaking. Banjo I can agree with, but Terry does have more legacy then Ryu. This board is over inflating Ryus impact on the gaming industry.

The number of likes I got would seem to disagree.

 

[Iko MattOrr]

its hard to contribute to this convo when you have no feelings toword the Speculation flavor of the month

Basically me in the last two years.
Last time a character that I'm even slighty interested in was discussed, it was around the Google leak hoax when Artorias from Dark Souls was part of it.

 

[Dinoman96]

SNK had their own line of consoles/hardware, for crying out loud.

 

[SNEKeater]

Hmm, very interesting. I actually didn't know some of this, lol. Perhaps I actually was underestimating Estelle's chances a bit. She definitely has things going for her, and you've helped me see that, so thanks.

I guess I should probably explain why I said Adol was the "clear choice".

Basically, Ys has made more Nintendo appearances than any other Falcom series (as far as I know), and Adol is the company's longest running character, the star of one of their flagship IPs, and is arguably their most "iconic" character. On top of that, Sakurai himself is apparently an Ys fan. I just thought that if Nintendo went for a Falcom character, Adol might've been the first choice that came up, and I don't think Falcom would have refused if Sakurai wanted to use him.

Also, I'm not sure if the popularity divide between Ys and Trails is as large as the one between SMT and Persona, but I see what you're saying.

To ask a question, if Shin Megami Tensei had one main protagonist that was there from the start of the franchise and still continued having new games to this day, do you think Joker still would've been chosen over him/her?

To ask another question, who would you say is the "face" of Falcom? Like Mario is for Nintendo, or Sonic for Sega. I feel like that'd be Adol, but maybe Sakurai or Falcom themselves would see it differently.

In any case, if Falcom were to get a rep and it turned out being Estelle (or Rean), I'd still pretty much be guaranteed some Ys music and maybe an Adol Mii Costume to go along with all the Trails/Falcom content. I imagine it'd be the same if Adol was chosen over Estelle (and Rean). In the end, we'd all pretty much win, so I don't think it's too much of a competition for who a Falcom rep should/would be.

View attachment 290437
Whether it'd be Adol, Estelle, Rean, or pretty much any other potential Falcom rep, they'd all be rad, and I hope we get to see at least one of them make it in someday.

I personally believe the choice would be between Adol and Estelle. Rean is newer and also popular, but unless Nintendo specifically asks for him, I usually imagine Sakurai going for the classic or most representative pick. Adol is older than Estelle, so there's that, but as far as I saw I'd say both are equally popular?
Don't know if there's an official popularity poll for Falcom characters, if there's one I haven't heard about it. That could bring some interesting info.

I haven't been really into Falcom until recently, so I don't know who would be the face of Falcom, or the closest thing to that. Adol has more appearances which definitely helps him, and he doesn't seem to be going away for future Ys installments. The nature of the Trails games is different, so Estelle no longer has (or at least that's what I believe) a main role in the Trails games after the Sky trilogy though she still appears in those games.

In my opinion, I think the question is, assuming Nintendo approaches Falcom to put a character in Smash:
- Would they ask for Legend of Heroes/Trails representation?
If that's the case, I believe Estelle feels the logical pick here. Despite not being in the spotlight in the Crossbell and Erebonia games, she's still there making appearances. She also 'started' the Trails series, and she's popular. I think if they want to rep the Trails games, Estelle is a great choice, not only because of her popularity but also because she appears in all the arcs, if I'm not mistaken.

- Would they just ask for a Falcom rep in general?
What I mean is, approaching Falcom in order to add a character from them, without asking for a specific series to be repped. In this scenario, I think anything could happen. I still believe it would be between Estelle and Adol, but who knows. I'm more familiar with her so I'd rather have Estelle but being objective, I think Adol would have some advantage.

Obviously, if Nintendo asks for a Ys character it's gonna be Adol, no questions here.

Also the pic you posted is very cool. It's from Ys vs. Trails in the Sky which as far as I know is the only crossover Falcom has done for their series.

PD: While I was looking for info I just found Ys had an anime that started in 1989 and ended after two years lol. Very interesting: