Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

And before anyone points out the whole 'EnderDragon is a boss'. Its possible he mistook it for Rathatos whose code I recall is called EndDragon, either that or he confused it for EnderDragon's spirit.

It can’t be either of these things.

Rathalos in his files is “Liolaelus”, his Japanese name, and there’s no way Vergeben knew of the spirit over two years before Steve’s actual release.

The Ender Dragon stuff he heard is simply false information.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I'd honestly not be surprised if that's the case, considering just how massive the giga-leak was. Whoever leaked that gained access to direct source code and stuff related to Nintendo's inner workings. Sure, the games are 20+ years old...

...But to Nintendo, that implies that their security measures are not solid enough to stop future leaks at all. For an organization that has most of its workers be contractors not attached to labor unions and who emphasises working in secrecy that's disasterous since the giga-leak risks feeding mistrust within the company. I'm mentioning the contractors part since there's a chance that leaker behind the gigaleak was an (ex-)Nintendo employee.




Wasn't the LoL leak in April? People talked about it around that time, and Vergeben said he'd "look into it".

No word on that since.

I think we learned of the LoL rumor in April but the actual post date on 4chan said January. I’d need the image again to be sure.

but maybe Vergeben’s silence could mean LoL is true, cause he sure as hell wouldn’t wanna be sued and face legal action

personally I’m more inclined to believe the LoL rumor than the Falcom rumor as again, the former got the spirit event prediction right and for the latter, I don’t know why you’d need to negotiate with NIS as well. NIS just localizes the games

 

[Michael the Spikester]

It can’t be either of these things.

Rathalos in his files is “Liolaelus”, his Japanese name, and there’s no way Vergeben knew of the spirit over two years before Steve’s actual release.

The Ender Dragon stuff he heard is simply false information.

Still, he was spot-on with the 'Minecraft content'. He must of had his sources mixed up thinking it was gonna be base game eventually.

Hence why I feel he's reliable again especially regarding Ryu Hayabusa.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Still, he was spot-on with the 'Minecraft content'. He must of had his sources mixed up thinking it was gonna be base game eventually.

Hence why I feel he's reliable again especially regarding Ryu Hayabusa.

Steve in Smash was talked about for 5 years.

That’s probably what Vergeben’s sources heard and they likely just assumed it’d be base game stuff.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Steve in Smash was talked about for 5 years.

That’s probably what Vergeben’s sources heard and they likely just assumed it’d be base game stuff.

Which is why I say we still keep an eye on Ryu Hayabusa as it is. For all we know given negotiations can last that long, the same could be said for any character especially given Nintendo's and Koei's relationship.

 

[Louie G.]

Especially given

"Who else but Lloyd?" - Sakurai

It's never sat well with me that people will use Sakurai's words from Smash 4 to disqualify other Tales characters considering Nintendo is in charge of the character selection and could very well choose to add Yuri on account of his popularity among Tales fans and the Tales of Vesperia port on Switch.

I do believe if Sakurai was just given the prompt of "Tales character" that he would likely be consistent and come out with Lloyd in the end. But if Nintendo asked Sakurai for Yuri I have a very hard time believing he would turn that down. Honestly I put them on about equal footing myself (although I don't think either one of them will be in).

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Which is why I say we still keep an eye on Ryu Hayabusa as it is.

Yes, but we should be open to the idea that it could be wrong.

After all, Vergeben was wrong about the Ender Dragon.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Which is why I say we still keep an eye on Ryu Hayabusa as it is.

Did Verge explicitly mention Smash when talking about Koei Tecmo? Last I checked his exact words were “Koei Tecmo has been in talks with Nintendo” which could mean literally anything

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Did Verge explicitly mention Smash when talking about Koei Tecmo? Last I checked his exact words were “Koei Tecmo has been in talks with Nintendo” which could mean literally anything

If true, we might have even seen the results of these talks because they could be about Age of Calamity

 

[drag0nscythe]

I am on the fence of "No" for Ryu. I cannot see it heppening given the run of characters we have from DLC so far.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I am on the fence of "No" for Ryu. I cannot see it heppening given the run of characters we have from DLC so far.

Why would any of the other characters make Ryu less likely?

 

[cashregister9]

Saying that Minecraft will have content in smash is not a farfetched guess, so Verge could have just straight up lied about it.

 

[Louie G.]

I cannot see it heppening given the run of characters we have from DLC so far.

Which characters do you feel are more in line with our current DLC lineup then?

Personally I think Hayabusa fits in just fine. We have precedent for classic characters like Hero and Terry, characters without a super crazy gimmick like Banjo and Byleth, he strengthens company bonds with a close partner of Nintendo's like Joker or Banjo / Steve. I feel like he's a prime candidate especially considering what we've gotten so far, but also makes a lot of sense in a vacuum.

 

[RileyXY1]

Which characters do you feel are more in line with our current DLC lineup then?

Personally I think Hayabusa fits in just fine. We have precedent for classic characters like Hero and Terry, characters without a super crazy gimmick like Banjo and Byleth, he strengthens company bonds with a close partner of Nintendo's like Joker or Banjo / Steve. I feel like he's a prime candidate.

FP2 looks like it's appealing to younger audiences.

 

[TheBeastHimself]

I am on the fence of "No" for Ryu. I cannot see it heppening given the run of characters we have from DLC so far.

How come? Joker got in, Banjo got in, Terry got in. You don't need to be a huge, revolutionary gaming franchise to make it in as DLC. And Ninja Gaiden has a legacy like Banjo-Kazooie, SNK, and more recently, Persona.

 

[JOJONumber691]

This wait is gonna be torture, ain’t it...

YUP!

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

FP2 looks like it's appealing to younger audiences.

We’ve only had two characters so far... -_-

And given Pass 1 had a good mix of 2010s and 90s characters, I don’t think it’s fair to assume every IP in Pass 2 would be from the past decade.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

FP2 looks like it's appealing to younger audiences.

That can change at a moment’s notice though. Nothing is ever set in stone

 

[Louie G.]

FP2 looks like it's appealing to younger audiences.

Kind of a rash assumption to make with only two characters so far. I don't believe that Nintendo's approach will have changed that much from FP1 especially considering the overwhelming positive reception right out of the gate toward Joker, an M rated character.

If anything I think this validates a character for an older audience even more. DLC has been super diverse so far and I don't think Nintendo would want to pigeonhole themselves with one particular audience / age group when some of their older fans may not have been convinced to buy the pass yet.

 

[Guynamednelson]

We’ve only had two characters so far... -_-

And given Pass 1 had a good mix of 2010s and 90s characters, I don’t think it’s fair to assume every IP in Pass 2 would be from the past decade.

Assuming every character in FP2 will be from the 2010s is already deconfirmed by Steve using his 2009 design.

Then again, any video game character getting into Smash proves Riley wrong about something.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

From SSBWiki:

League of Legends fighter rumor
On January 30, 2020, an anonymous user on 4chan posted a thread claiming:

• A character from League of Legends will be a fighter.
• A Mii Swordfighter costume of The Knight from Hollow Knight packed with a remixed version of Sealed Vessel music just like Cuphead and Sans.
• Spirits from Trials of Mana are planned.

Later in April 21, 2020, Nintendo officially revealed a Trials of Mana spirit event, confirming one of the claims the anonymous user that the spirits from this game being planned, with Vergeben stating on a deleted GameFaqs thread that he would be checking on the fighter from League of Legends and the Mii Swordfighter costume. However, it is unknown if these are guesses or not.

SKX31 yup, LoL rumor was originally posted in January but we only learned of it in April shortly after the ToM spirit event. So my prediction of them being FP8 if the rumor is true would likely hold up timeline wise

 

[JOJONumber691]

FP2 looks like it's appealing to younger audiences.

Yeah. I definitely think we're going to get more characters from the 2000's and 2010's this time around, but that definitely doesn't stop Hayabusa from sneaking in ANYWAYS!

 

[drag0nscythe]

How come? Joker got in, Banjo got in, Terry got in. You don't need to be a huge, revolutionary gaming franchise to make it in as DLC. And Ninja Gaiden has a legacy like Banjo-Kazooie, SNK, and more recently, Persona.

My main thought stems from this. We only ever started considering Ryu because of a leak. Nothing more. He is so high on the list of "possibles" because of said leak. I dont remember him on polls, I dont remember him in standard conversation until that leak. When I also look at the characters we have.

Joker - Sega/Atlus
Banjo/Steve - Microsoft
Terry - SNK
MinMin/Byleth/Plant - Nintendo
Hero - Square

Now. Conjecture time.
I personally think Joker was picked because P5 was big and Sega/Atlus wanted some sweet advertising. Likewise, I see Hero as a packaged deal with cloud. For Microsoft, given the fan demand for Banjo, I see they doing the 2 for 1 deal with Banjo/Steve. Nintendo owns its characters, with the main 2 we have being promos. That leaves Terry. I say that is Sakurai Bias.

When we look at FP1, we have Joker/Byleth which has some, but not lots of support. We look at Hero and Banjo, whom had TONS of support. and we see Terry, who had Sakurai support. In FP2. we have MinMin and Steve, which had Nintendo support.

and that is where I look at it. Nintendo support. What characters did nintendo see fit. Last 3 have felt like Nintendo mandates (not complaining. I like MinMin and Steve)., I personally cannot see Ryu as a nintendo mandate. I just cannot. He is the same level as Arthur from Ghost and Goblins, or Joe from Shinobi. From hard games that people played a million times because of jank. He is no more likely then say the Contra duo.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Yeah. I definitely think we're going to get more characters from the 2000's and 2010's this time around, but that definitely doesn't stop Hayabusa from sneaking in ANYWAYS!

I mean...He is a ninja.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Going back to the falcom rumor I find this bit sus (against, not in favor):

Trails of Cold Steel spirit event is coming, source didn't specify if it was for 1, 2, 3, or 4. Unsure if it's a random event or related to the character itself.

The rumor also says it’s either Adol or Rean, so if it is Rean, wouldn’t it be a character-associated Spirit Board and not an event?

as others have said, no mention of Estelle is also sus

yes I watch Among Us meme videos a lot got a problem?

 

[Fluttershy64]

Falcom for Estelle; also Heihachi is deconfirmed I’d say, as is Nakoruru

Hmm... interesting, though I don’t know why they’d need to include NIS and there’s no real killswitches. The LoL leak at least got one thing right (ToM spirits) so I’m just eagerly awaiting the HK costume at this point

Are they referring NIS as in NIS America?

 

[3BitSaurus]

Did Verge explicitly mention Smash when talking about Koei Tecmo? Last I checked his exact words were “Koei Tecmo has been in talks with Nintendo” which could mean literally anything

I'm thinking more along the lines of IamShifty. I mean, he was literally one of the only two sources who called Piranha Plant, of all things. And if I'm not mistaken, the Hayabusa rumors came from the same source.

My main thought stems from this. We only ever started considering Ryu because of a leak. Nothing more. He is so high on the list of "possibles" because of said leak. I dont remember him on polls, I dont remember him in standard conversation until that leak. When I also look at the characters we have.

Joker - Sega/Atlus
Banjo/Steve - Microsoft
Terry - SNK
MinMin/Byleth/Plant - Nintendo
Hero - Square

Now. Conjecture time.
I personally think Joker was picked because P5 was big and Sega/Atlus wanted some sweet advertising. Likewise, I see Hero as a packaged deal with cloud. For Microsoft, given the fan demand for Banjo, I see they doing the 2 for 1 deal with Banjo/Steve. Nintendo owns its characters, with the main 2 we have being promos. That leaves Terry. I say that is Sakurai Bias.

When we look at FP1, we have Joker/Byleth which has some, but not lots of support. We look at Hero and Banjo, whom had TONS of support. and we see Terry, who had Sakurai support. In FP2. we have MinMin and Steve, which had Nintendo support.

and that is where I look at it. Nintendo support. What characters did nintendo see fit. Last 3 have felt like Nintendo mandates (not complaining. I like MinMin and Steve)., I personally cannot see Ryu as a nintendo mandate. I just cannot. He is the same level as Arthur from Ghost and Goblins, or Joe from Shinobi. From hard games that people played a million times because of jank. He is no more likely then say the Contra duo.

So what I'm getting from this is... you don't like his game and you didn't bother looking at his pre-rumor support, so you're discounting Hayabusa?

Seems a bit... uninformed, if you ask me. Especially when you consider that, unlike Arthur and Joe, Hayabusa is considered a frontrunner for his company and it's very clear from his presence in other KT games that they see him like that, too.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Are they referring NIS as in NIS America?

I imagine so as NIS isn’t involved with Falcom games in Japan; only the west

 

[drag0nscythe]

I am not up-to-date on all the characters that are requested, or the running, or etc. But I have personal thoughts on the next 4 additions. I think we will get another Nintendo character, and 3 more third party. I also think that we are mostly done with pulling in new companies (And yes. That is a silly thought, but at this time, that is what I think.)

I think we will get characters from companies that are already in smash.
Geno - for example. The fan demand. the memes. The shear annoyance of the character being mentioned makes me believe he has a chance.
For the list of whom I think we will get, in all seriousness.

A Namco character. I personally am batting for KOSMOS. But but I believe we are getting one. I know people will point to mii costumes and how they have been divided up, but I don't think that means anything. I also think we are done with MS reps. But Sega can have one more rep. From an older series maybe. Hard to say. I think we will get another promotional rep. Not a pokemon though. I just dont feel it at this time.

So I wager
Geno
KosMos
A Nintendo Character
A Sega Character.

That is what I am feeling. but I certain I am wrong. We do not have the MH costumes. That could easily replace with KOSMOS.

 

[Louie G.]

My main thought stems from this. We only ever started considering Ryu because of a leak. Nothing more.

It's really frustrating to see people boil Hayabusa down to this, considering Ninja Gaiden's legacy as a classic NES title and Koei Tecmo's own influence on Nintendo properties. "We" didn't only start considering him beccause he showed up in a 4chan leak. Maybe you did, but he was on my mind as far back as Simon's reveal as the next 'NES icon' in line.

It's impossible for me to say where Hayabusa would stand if not for those leaks in the community as a whole, but I like to think people would have gotten the idea considering Koei Tecmo is ****ing everywhere now. The leaks really don't greatly affect his chances one way or the other anyway.

Nintendo support. What characters did nintendo see fit. Last 3 have felt like Nintendo mandates (not complaining. I like MinMin and Steve)., I personally cannot see Ryu as a nintendo mandate.

And this is the major flaw here. You highlight why you believe certain other characters were added, for a variety reasons such as throwing companies a bone, fan demand and Sakurai's own influence... and then since the last three characters were supposedly "Nintendo support", the whole rest of the pass will also fit that arbitrary label? What happened to all the other reasons? You can't make these assumptions based on two characters, the latter (Steve) barely even qualifying for the criteria you made up in the first place. I don't see why Steve is 'Nintendo influence' any more than someone like Hero was. In fact, every single DLC pick was Nintendo influence because they chose all the characters.

Not to mention... Koei Tecmo is irrefutably the single closest third party partner to Nintendo without a playable character in Smash. Even if you wanted to believe that FP2 was all 'Nintendo-y' picks whatever that means, Hayabusa still qualifies for that because Koei Tecmo is EXTREMELY tight with Nintendo right now. Not to mention that Nintendo absolutely loves to celebrate NES nostalgia, and Ninja Gaiden is consistently right there alongside Super Mario Bros and Legend of Zelda on NSO and the NES Classic edition.

This reasoning against Hayabusa is just completely arbitrary dude.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

We've only gotten two characters so far. Way too early to tell if its targeting a younger audience.

Also Joker and Byleth in the first Pass.

 

[Fluttershy64]

I imagine so as NIS isn’t involved with Falcom games in Japan; only the west

Ah ok then. Who would be the picks for an NIS rep? The only one I can think of is a Sakura Wars: So Long my Love character.

 

[drag0nscythe]

It's really frustrating to see people boil Hayabusa down to this, considering Ninja Gaiden's legacy as a classic NES title and Koei Tecmo's own influence on Nintendo properties. "We" didn't only start considering him beccause he showed up in a 4chan leak. Maybe you did, but he was on my mind as far back as Simon's reveal as the next 'NES icon' in line.

So what I'm getting from this is... you don't like his game and you didn't bother looking at his pre-rumor support, so you're discounting Hayabusa?

Seems a bit... uninformed, if you ask me. Especially when you consider that, unlike Arthur and Joe, Hayabusa is considered a frontrunner for his company and it's very clear from his presence in other KT games that they see him like that, too.

You know how many "icons" I have seen people spout. And how many "huhs" I also saw when Terry was announced. Icons are relative.

Reddit - Dive into anything

www.reddit.com

Just gabbed. a random poll link. All are Icons.

You know who is on my mind, since Melee. Goemon. One of the cereal box mascots from the N64 that was rather big on the N64. It is all relative dude.

It's really frustrating to see people boil Hayabusa down to this, considering Ninja Gaiden's legacy as a classic NES title and Koei Tecmo's own influence on Nintendo properties. "We" didn't only start considering him beccause he showed up in a 4chan leak. Maybe you did, but he was on my mind as far back as Simon's reveal as the next 'NES icon' in line.

It's impossible for me to say where Hayabusa would stand if not for those leaks in the community as a whole, but I like to think people would have gotten the idea considering Koei Tecmo is ****ing everywhere now. The leaks really don't greatly affect his chances one way or the other anyway.



And this is the major flaw here. You highlight why you believe certain other characters were added, for a variety reasons such as throwing companies a bone, fan demand and Sakurai's own influence... and then since the last three characters were supposedly "Nintendo support", the whole rest of the pass will also fit that arbitrary label? What happened to all the other reasons? You can't make these assumptions based on two characters, the latter (Steve) barely even qualifying for the criteria you made up in the first place. I don't see why Steve is 'Nintendo influence' any more than someone like Hero was. In fact, every single DLC pick was Nintendo influence because they chose all the characters.

Not to mention... Koei Tecmo is irrefutably the single closest third party partner to Nintendo without a playable character in Smash. Even if you wanted to believe that FP2 was all 'Nintendo-y' picks whatever that means, Hayabusa still qualifies for that because Koei Tecmo is EXTREMELY tight with Nintendo right now. Not to mention that Nintendo absolutely loves to celebrate NES nostalgia, and Ninja Gaiden is consistently right there alongside Super Mario Bros and Legend of Zelda on NSO and the NES Classic edition.

This reasoning against Hayabusa is just completely arbitrary dude.

I don't think "being close" is a good enough excuse for thinking he is so likely. just dont. They are companies. Not people.

 

[SharkLord]

Going back to the falcom rumor I find this bit sus (against, not in favor):


The rumor also says it’s either Adol or Rean, so if it is Rean, wouldn’t it be a character-associated Spirit Board and not an event?

as others have said, no mention of Estelle is also sus

yes I watch Among Us meme videos a lot got a problem?

What seems really sus to me is that they didn't even mention Adol by name, just "pic related." Heck, the image was only titled "Falcom.jpg", or at least it was on the thread. It seemed like the guy didn't know about Falcom all that well beyond Trails of Cold Steel, seeing as Rean and his games were the only thing actually named. At the very least, it comes off as very unprofessional.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

It's really frustrating to see people boil Hayabusa down to this, considering Ninja Gaiden's legacy as a classic NES title and Koei Tecmo's own influence on Nintendo properties. "We" didn't only start considering him beccause he showed up in a 4chan leak. Maybe you did, but he was on my mind as far back as Simon's reveal as the next 'NES icon' in line.

It's impossible for me to say where Hayabusa would stand if not for those leaks in the community as a whole, but I like to think people would have gotten the idea considering Koei Tecmo is ****ing everywhere now. The leaks really don't greatly affect his chances one way or the other anyway.

This exactly. He's definitely in the ranks with characters like Hero, Banjo, and Terry in terms of legacy. Last of the NES icons, strong history and relationship with Nintendo notably starting off on a Nintendo console.

 

[Louie G.]

You know how many "icons" I have seen people spout. And how many "huhs" I also saw when Terry was announced. Icons are relative.

Right, and Terry is in the game. I don't get the point you're making here.

I mean, feel free not to consider Hayabusa an icon I guess. You can get into semantics about who qualifies for that label but I think you'd have a hard time arguing that Hayabusa's legacy and notoriety isn't at least on par with some of the DLC characters we've already gotten.

 

[drag0nscythe]

This exactly. He's definitely in the ranks with characters like Hero, Banjo, and Terry in terms of legacy. Last of the NES icons, strong history and relationship with Nintendo notably starting off on a Nintendo console.

Right, and Terry is in the game. I don't get the point you're making here.

I would argue he does not rank close to Hero or Terry. But again relative. And my point was that people say "icons" here, yet when a real Icon was announced it was all "Oh look. Sans. Terry who? Hat Ken. No one wanted him." So echo chamber.

Also to expand, people assume their childhood is always similar to others. If players did not grow up on the NES or Xbox, Ryu who? is more then likely a statement to be heard. Hell, most characters tend to be forgotten given how the industry treats its properties. You know a big series I remember on the NES. Double Dragon. that thing had 3 NES games, SNES games and was huge for some time. Should we consider them also?

 

[Rie Sonomura]

What seems really sus to me is that they didn't even mention Adol by name, just "pic related." Heck, the image was only titles Falcom.jpg, or at least it was on the thread. It seemed like the guy didn't know about Falcom all that well beyond Trails of Cold Steel, seeing as Rean and his games were the only thing actually named. At the very least, it comes off as very unprofessional.

In contrast, the LoL rumor says “no names at the moment but bets are on pic related” which was a pic of Ahri and I do believe the file was named Ahri.jpg or something

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I would argue he does not rank close to Hero or Terry. But again relative. And my point was that people say "icons" here, yet when a real Icon was announced it was all "Oh look. Sans. Terry who? Hat Ken. No one wanted him." So echo chamber.

Ryu Hayabusa is certainly up there. Again he's among the NES icons alongside Castlevania.

 

[RileyXY1]

I don't think that LoL has a face. It would be pretty hard to select one character out of 150 to represent the series.