Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[ROBnWatch]

As cool as that would be...I sadly doubt it. IMO, I think what happened is CP7 was probably ready to ship out early this month and the team were getting ready for it, but Nintendo came in last minute and said "Yeaaaaah about that: You're not dropping that patch yet, we wanna market other things first. Put it on the shelf and wait until we say so."

Otherwise? I'd say that if it takes until the third week of October or later just to get this character revealed and it wasn't Nintendo marketing causing it, then odds are IMO that the pass end date gets hit with a delay.

I can see that being the case. Like I said, I don’t think it’s likely that FP7 comes with a new mode, and I don’t think we should expect it, it’s just an idea for discussion. And with us getting at least one news update per week now, I can see how they may want to spread out their larger announcements, including Smash.

I do hope the pass’ end date hasn’t gotten pushed back, though I wouldn’t be surprised at this point.

 

[Teeb147]

Ok but

Elma.

I still got a really good feeling about her, y’all sleeping on her tbh

Do you think Elma could make a come back in a new game? (either as main character or strong presence)

 

[Garteam]

I honestly don't think that Min Min is the reason that Fighter's Pass 2 may be underperforming. By September 2018, ARMS had sold 2.1 million copies. By April 2019, Persona 5 had shipped 2.7 million copies. While there is a difference between copies sold and shipped, what it does show is that there isn't a huge difference in recognizability between an ARMS and Persona character. Joker may have had a surprise factor and a larger, hardcore fanbase as well, but I seriously doubt those things would make a significant difference in sales.

Timing seems to be the greater issue here. When Fighter's Pass 1 was released, Ultimate was at its peak of cultural relevancy. The game had just came out, everyone and their mom was talking about it, and it was basically the centre of the gaming world. It wouldn't surprise me if many people went out and bought the pass just because they enjoyed the base game so much and wanted more. By comparison, Fighter's Pass 2 came out a little after Ultimate's first year anniversary. It's just an unfortunate fact that the general public's eye moves fast and loose, with many only playing a game for a month before something shiny and new comes along. Sure, Ultimate was still doing incredibly well and had developed a strong core fanbase, but it wouldn't surprise me if people just naturally lost interest as time went on.

There's also the timing of announcements that is likely effecting sales. Let's look at the announcement and release chain of the first wave of DLC content:

• December 7, 2018: Ultimate is released, Joker is revealed.
• January 29th, 2019: Piranha Plant is released, 4-player spirit mode is added.
• April 17th, 2019: Joker is released, stage builder is added.
• June 11th, 2019: Hero and Banjo are revealed.
• July 30th, 2019: Hero is released, online tournaments are added.
• September 4th, 2019: Banjo is released, Terry is revealed, and home-run contest is added
• November 6th, 2019: Terry is released.
• January 16th, 2020: Byleth is revealed, being released 12 days later. Fighter's Pass 2 is revealed.

That's a very steady stream of major content. The wait may've seemed unbearable in the moment, but we were, on average, getting major updates every 2 months. These bimonthly updates had people keeping their eyes on the game and actively discussing it, causing a stronger word-of-mouth about Smash's post-launch support.

Now compare to the second wave of DLC content:

• March 26th, 2020: Fighter #6 is revealed to be from ARMS
• June 22nd, 2020: Min Min is revealed, being released a week later. Rematch is added with Min Min's update
• August 4th, 2020: Small Battlefield is released.

By comparison, we're now waiting an average of 3 months per character update. An extra month may not seem like a lot in retrospect, but longer waits between updates means less talking about Smash, which in turn means less spread amongst public, which in turn means less sales. It also doesn't help that it effectively two updates to reach Min Min, making content droughts often feel longer than they actually were. Smaller updates like Small Battlefield do help to a certain extent, but it just doesn't drum up as much discussion as full characters do.

 

[Evil Trapezium]

Someone finally posted an image that makes sense for most of the discussed 'wanted' characters, on twitter. I think it's nice to see all together:

https://twitter.com/funktard8/status/1309936044662493186

Some of my most wanted are there, so that's great. One I don't see is Ashley though. They put other assist trophies there so I would've expected her too. Guess she's not really talked about much these days :/

It's game time!

1. Crash Bandicoot
2. Geno
3. Doom Guy
4. Travis Touchdown
5. Klonoa

Would also pick
Sora
Dante
Phoenix Wright
Ryu Hayabusa
Heavy
Tails
Scorpion
Sol Badguy
Crono
Kiryu

 

[extremeturkey]

As much as I doubt their logic of "The ads exist to try to drum up sales for the pass and nothing more"


MAN

I can 100% believe that this pass' sales are probably not the greatest tbh. Like, no shade to MinMin, but.... I mean, she's kinda got the odds stacked against her in terms of hype.


Back to back 1st party reveals
Previous pass started on a HUGE 3rd party blowout character
The game's basically 2 years old and the playerbase has probably diminished heavily with time, meaning less sales in general
ARMs in general not being the most 'exciting' choice, at least compared to another BLOWOUT third party reveal


Like, hype's subjective sure, but between the guessing game that lasted for 3 months, and starting the 2nd pass more on a mild applause than a huge explosion like the first one, yeah, I can imagine sales probably aren't the greatest.


Not 'bad' by any means, it's Smash after all, but definitely nowhere near as high as the CEOs probably want atm.

I bet people aren't buying the full pass as much after being disappointed with what was added to the first pass.

Also, I still haven't seen any evidence the sales are bad, people talk about it like it's a known fact (and it makes sense the first one would sell most) but I don't know what their sources are.

 

[Deleted member]

I wasn't in speculation during the ARMs reveal/pre Min-Min reveal.

What was it like?

 

[HansShotFirst20]

Only a precious few would be down for Saber/Artoria in ultimate but those few are the most based among us.

 

[MooMew64]

I can see that being the case. Like I said, I don’t think it’s likely that FP7 comes with a new mode, and I don’t think we should expect it, it’s just an idea for discussion. And with us getting at least one news update per week now, I can see how they may want to spread out their larger announcements, including Smash.

I do hope the pass’ end date hasn’t gotten pushed back, though I wouldn’t be surprised at this point.

If a new mode came, gosh do I want a boss rush mode. This game's bosses are A+, but you only get to fight most of them in a fresh WoL file. :/

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

I bet people aren't buying the full pass as much after being disappointed with what was added to the first pass.

This is just a "Fire Emblem bad" post without actually saying so isn't it?

 

[Speed Weed]

Someone finally posted an image that makes sense for most of the discussed 'wanted' characters, on twitter. I think it's nice to see all together:

https://twitter.com/funktard8/status/1309936044662493186

Some of my most wanted are there, so that's great. One I don't see is Ashley though. They put other assist trophies there so I would've expected her too. Guess she's not really talked about much these days :/

if i had to pick 1 character from each horizontal row, i'd choose:
-wright
-isaac
-sol
-bomberman
-chun-li

 

[MooMew64]

I wasn't in speculation during the ARMs reveal/pre Min-Min reveal.

What was it like?

This:

"I think it's Spring Man."

"I think it's Min Min."

"She isn't the mascot, though."

"Yeah, you're right."

"...I think it's Spring Man."

Repeat that for three months and that was pretty much it. I was gone for most of it.

 

[zumaddy]

I wasn't in speculation during the ARMs reveal/pre Min-Min reveal.

What was it like?

Well as a Min Min supporter we were waiting to see whether a) spirits mattered and b) if Min Min would get in over Spring Man or Ribbon Girl due to them being on the cover and heavily advertised at ARMS' launch, so a lot of dialogue surrounded that in terms of her fan support.

In terms of the general atmosphere a lot of people got burnt out waiting that long, especially those not interested in ARMS who had nothing to look forward to and no speculation to engage in regarding their faves. Even as someone supporting an ARMS character, the excitement only lasted so long and then it was just like 'is it the middle of the year yet'.

 

[Deleted member]

I have a question.

Did Byleth in Smash help Three Houses' sales even more, or was it consistent before and after Byleth?

 

[Wunderwaft]

I don't know if this has been talked about yet but Sakurai asked Harada's help in fixing Smash's online.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

This:

"I think it's Spring Man."

"I think it's Min Min."

"She isn't the mascot, though."

"Yeah, you're right."

"...I think it's Spring Man."

Repeat that for three months and that was pretty much it. I was gone for most of it.

Don't forget the classic "it's gonna be a Hero-like composite character with Spring Man, Ribbon Girl, Ninjara, and Min Min all as alts of each other"

 

[zumaddy]

What really didn't make sense was people claiming Twintelle was going to be a Spring Man alt... anyone who knows a bit about ARMS knows why that would be bizarre mechanically.

 

[extremeturkey]

This is just a "Fire Emblem bad" post without actually saying so isn't it?

Kind of--Byleth IS a bad choice and lots of people felt burned by it. But he isn't the only character that may have turned people off of buying a second mystery package.

For me I only bought the DQ heroes, I don't think the other characters are worth $6.

 

[Garteam]

I wasn't in speculation during the ARMs reveal/pre Min-Min reveal.

What was it like?

It was pretty fun for the first 2 or so weeks. We had a bunch of new characters that no one had really considered brought back from the dead. It breathed a lot of life back into speculation, seeing how we had characters that were outside the 20-30 candidates that had been weighed 100 times.

By the end of those first two weeks, however, the community basically agreed we were getting Spring Man, Min Min, or a Hero situation. From there, conversation slowly shifted from "which ARMS character could it be?" to "What would each ARMS character's inclusion mean for this character?". There were occasional wars over Spring Man being "boring" or "too generic", Min Min being "unrealistic" or "a bandwagon", or whether or not a Hero situation would actually be feasible. However, most of the major discussion had faded by that point.

 

[Deleted member]

I don't know if this has been talked about yet but Sakurai asked Harada's help in fixing Smash's online.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Finally, some news!!!

Well as a Min Min supporter we were waiting to see whether a) spirits mattered and b) if Min Min would get in over Spring Man or Ribbon Girl due to them being on the cover and heavily advertised at ARMS' launch, so a lot of dialogue surrounded that in terms of her fan support.

In terms of the general atmosphere a lot of people got burnt out waiting that long, especially those not interested in ARMS who had nothing to look forward to and no speculation to engage in regarding their faves. Even as someone supporting an ARMS character, the excitement only lasted so long and then it was just like 'is it the middle of the year yet'.

Don't forget the classic "it's gonna be a Hero-like composite character with Spring Man, Ribbon Girl, Ninjara, and Min Min all as alts of each other"

This:

"I think it's Spring Man."

"I think it's Min Min."

"She isn't the mascot, though."

"Yeah, you're right."

"...I think it's Spring Man."

Repeat that for three months and that was pretty much it. I was gone for most of it.

Must have sounded very painful, I am glad all of you survived.

I wasn't in speculation that much, but my bet was Min Min. I am glad I was right.

 

[MooMew64]

I don't know if this has been talked about yet but Sakurai asked Harada's help in fixing Smash's online.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

If they can get it be like Splatoon and Mario Kart where it's at least usable and relatively stable, I'd be happy with that.

We'll see how this one here goes. I at least appreciate he's trying.

 

[Deleted member]

Ultimate's online is very atrocious, but I have very high hopes for Sakurai and Harada.

If they can get it be like Splatoon and Mario Kart where it's at least usable and relatively stable, I'd be happy with that.

We'll see how this one here goes. I at least appreciate he's trying.

Same. I would be happy if they even made it like Smash 4's online, and Smash 4's online had many issues.

 

[zumaddy]

@ShinyLegendary FE had 2.29 millions sales by the end of October 2019, and 2.87 million by May 2020. However since FE was already predicted to reach around that number back in October 2019, I don't think it was a massive Smash Bros boost. It feels like a lot of people who already were interested in FE bought it before Byleth was added, and Smash gave it a little extra pep.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Do you think Elma could make a come back in a new game? (either as main character or strong presence)

Yes, actually - the direct sequel to Xenoblade Chronicles X

 

[Deleted member]

@ShinyLegendary FE had 2.29 millions sales by the end of October 2019, and 2.87 million by May 2020. However since FE was already predicted to reach around that number back in October 2019, I don't think it was a massive Smash Bros boost. It feels like a lot of people who already were interested in FE bought it before Byleth was added, and Smash gave it a little extra pep.

Thank you, the more I know.

I would have still been into Three Houses if they updated Crimson Flower.

 

[Perkilator]

I wasn't in speculation during the ARMs reveal/pre Min-Min reveal.

What was it like?

(war flash backs to people saying it would be a Hero/Bowser Jr. scenario where different characters would be alts)

…Well, it was interesting to say the least.

 

[Deleted member]

Yes, actually - the direct sequel to Xenoblade Chronicles X

Xenoblade Chronicles Y, let's go!

 

[chocolatejr9]

Yes, actually - the direct sequel to Xenoblade Chronicles X

This may be a weird question to ask, but does X2 HAVE to be a direct sequal? I know the first game ended on a cliffhanger, but what's stopping them from having the game focus on a completely different group of characters, with the occasional reference here or there? Rotating casts are pretty common in these types of RPGs, after all.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

This may be a weird question to ask, but does X2 HAVE to be a direct sequal? I know the first game ended on a cliffhanger, but what's stopping them from having the game focus on a completely different group of characters, with the occasional reference here or there? Rotating casts are pretty common in these types of RPGs, after all.

Regardless of what they do with the cast, it would be really crappy of them (to put it lightly) to not continue the story at all after a cliff hanger at the end of a 100+ hour game in its sequel.

 

[zumaddy]

Japan Game Awards 2020 winners announced

As part of Tokyo Game Show 2020 Online, winners for the annual Japan Game Awards were revealed. The event was held over the weekend, with six categories decided on the first day followed by the Award for Excellence and coveted Grand Award on the second day. Here are the full results: Minister of...

nintendoeverything.com

Three Houses won Award for Excellence, all 'FE bad' posts are now officially illegal in 79 countries
(also stoked about Animal Crossing and MH Iceborne winning some!)

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Someone finally posted an image that makes sense for most of the discussed 'wanted' characters, on twitter. I think it's nice to see all together:

https://twitter.com/funktard8/status/1309936044662493186

Some of my most wanted are there, so that's great. One I don't see is Ashley though. They put other assist trophies there so I would've expected her too. Guess she's not really talked about much these days :/

here is my weird ass pass
Pheonix, Layton, Ammy, Monokuma,Travis, Sora

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I don't think it is possible to future proof a Smash game. You can make it as up-to-date as possible, but even with Nintendo basically doing that this time, you already have Ring Fit and Astral Chain both likely set to expand and flourish and stand a real chance at inclusion next time if they do.

Plus, you have all the other series which will continue to proceed as ever. There will be new Pokemon, FE and Xenoblade casts, and some dormant series or characters might even get revived. Plus, we're probably going to get at least another successful IP or two before the next Smash starts to take shape.

I think Nintendo will always aim to keep Smash current - which they can do even more effectively now with DLC, but future-proofing isn't really feasible as long as Nintendo perpetuates itself. Unless I've misunderstood what you're saying.

Perhaps future proof was the wrong term- Obviously it's impossible to entirely future proof, but in the context of what a new Smash would add right now, if it were going to be adding characters. If this were the case, it's possible games like Ring Fit/Astral Chain would be considered "too new" (which could explain the Spirit treatment and as a new IP in general compared to Xenoblade or Pokemon), while characters from more established IP stand a better chance. Without a new Xenoblade, Rex is still the latest protagonist (considering DE is just XC1 again). Sword and Shield is the biggest Pokemon title yet in terms of sales and is yet another Switch title, and still has DLC supporting it.

Even if you put the term "future proof" aside, I think it stands to reason that we could continue to see Switch characters, first party wise, added as opposed to those who aren't as directly tied to it, maybe in an attempt to make the Switch first-party library apparent and visible in Smash.

It seems like one term may have changed your understanding of my comment, so I apologize for that and should have made myself clearer. That said, we're probably thinking similarly. It's not that older, non-Switch first party IP are "impossible", just that it could very well be that that is a focus for them with SMO, BOTW, Splatoon, FETH, XCDE, and ARMS already in the game.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Japan Game Awards 2020 winners announced

As part of Tokyo Game Show 2020 Online, winners for the annual Japan Game Awards were revealed. The event was held over the weekend, with six categories decided on the first day followed by the Award for Excellence and coveted Grand Award on the second day. Here are the full results: Minister of...

nintendoeverything.com

Three Houses won Award for Excellence, all 'FE bad' posts are now officially illegal in 79 countries
(also stoked about Animal Crossing and MH Iceborne winning some!)

Grand Award

Animal Crossing: New Horizons

Perfection

 

[Deleted member]

Japan Game Awards 2020 winners announced

As part of Tokyo Game Show 2020 Online, winners for the annual Japan Game Awards were revealed. The event was held over the weekend, with six categories decided on the first day followed by the Award for Excellence and coveted Grand Award on the second day. Here are the full results: Minister of...

nintendoeverything.com

Three Houses won Award for Excellence, all 'FE bad' posts are now officially illegal in 79 countries
(also stoked about Animal Crossing and MH Iceborne winning some!)

Animal Crossing: New Horizons is inevitable.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

ayyy 13 Sentinels: Aegis Rim won Award for Excellence too, kick ass

 

[Teeb147]

if i had to pick 1 character from each horizontal row, i'd choose:
-wright
-isaac
-sol
-bomberman
-chun-li

Oh yeah. I guess for me there's one overlap if i did that horizontally, no bandana dee cuz shantae is there too
but I can get

Shantae
Arle
Shadow
Elma
and Krystal

I'd replace shadow with bandana dee if it's free game tho.

 

[Garteam]

I don't know if this has been talked about yet but Sakurai asked Harada's help in fixing Smash's online.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Reason #376 why Heihachi should've been a full playable character.

 

[Teeb147]

Yes, actually - the direct sequel to Xenoblade Chronicles X

Yeah. Is that something talked about by nintendo?

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Animal Crossing: New Horizons is inevitable.
View attachment 286956

All hail your new god, Animal Crossing New Horizon!

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Yeah. Is that something talked about by nintendo?

No. The last word on it was a while ago, and they just said that they wouldn't be porting Xenoblade Chronicles X. We'll see what fate lies in store for Xenoblade Chronicles X in time, but whatever happens it sure as heck ain't gonna be next year. We just got a big game and Monolithsoft is working on a bunch of other stuff right now.

 

[Calamitas]

This may be a weird question to ask, but does X2 HAVE to be a direct sequal? I know the first game ended on a cliffhanger, but what's stopping them from having the game focus on a completely different group of characters, with the occasional reference here or there? Rotating casts are pretty common in these types of RPGs, after all.

Considering that a very great number of X' open questions are with regards to its characters, it'd be very jarring to not continue with that cast in at least some form. Plus, they were already doing quite a bit of foreshadowing in 2's DLC - or at least going "Hmm there are sure some open questions in that game! Makes you WONDER.".

Wimp, can't handle a little drought...View attachment 286954What? Is there something on my face?

Yeah, you definitely got something there. I think you should really get that looked at.