Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Teeb147]

One character in the list that probably shouldn't be there is Saber, because she's an anime character.
Other than that, everyone seems legit. I don't know who the character to the left of shadow is though

 

[Arcane Jill]

Unless they port XCX (which if I remember right they said it would be a huge undertaking do do so) or we get a XCX2 announcement not too far off, I think Elma's chances have come and gone to be a Fighter. Feel like Rex and Kos-Mos are our best bets for a Xeno rep. Personally want Nia but I know thats not going to happen.

One character in the list that probably shouldn't be there is Saber, because she's an anime character.
Other than that, everyone seems legit. I don't know who the character to the left of shadow is though

On this subject, anyone mind explaining why she's not considered a 4th party? Pretty sure VNs don't count as video games so this one has been puzzling me.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

One character in the list that probably shouldn't be there is Saber, because she's an anime character.
Other than that, everyone seems legit. I don't know who the character to the left of shadow is though

Fate/Stay Night originated as a visual novel actually. It was originally a hentai VN but later got an all ages release

 

[SpectreJordan]

Someone finally posted an image that makes sense for most of the discussed 'wanted' characters, on twitter. I think it's nice to see all together:

https://twitter.com/funktard8/status/1309936044662493186

Some of my most wanted are there, so that's great. One I don't see is Ashley though. They put other assist trophies there so I would've expected her too. Guess she's not really talked about much these days :/

Most of my most wanted characters are in the first row so that makes things a bit more interesting. Is that supposed to be Jill Valentine in between Layton & Shovel Knight?

Master Chief
2B
Jill or Scorpion (If that lady isn’t Jill)
Frisk
Kratos

Besides helping out on Smash's online Harada also announced that Tekken 7 has sold 6 million copies and the franchise total sales are now over 50 million, they made an artwork to commemorate the occasion. I hope we see a playable Heihachi in the next Smash game.

TEKKEN7 had achieved Over 6 million sales !
We recorded Over 50 million copies sales for the series.

鉄拳7が600万枚超を達成し、シリーズ累計は5000万枚超となりました。まだまだダウンロード販売が伸びています。
記念イラストを公開！#TEKKEN7 #TEKKEN #鉄拳7 #鉄拳 pic.twitter.com/U30ZPUg9tN

— Katsuhiro Harada (@Harada_TEKKEN) September 27, 2020

Hopefully Sakurai or whoever directs the next Smash can figure out how to implement him. I have to imagine that’s why he’s still not in.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we find out Heihachi was on the table for FP2 but Sakurai still couldn’t figure him out. That could explain why his costume came with Min-Min instead of Terry.

 

[zumaddy]

I feel like rating their chances:

You forgot Klonoa. But don't worry, everyone has for the last 10 years :')

 

[Teeb147]

Fate/Stay Night originated as a visual novel actually. It was originally a hentai VN but later got an all ages release

Lol. I stand corrected then. She probably wont make it in because she's from a visual novel turned anime, with hentai involved directly at first

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Nice list. But obviously places are debatable I think that some have higher chances than you put, like Sora, Geno, Dixie, Elma, Shantae, and definitely Bandana Dee has higher chances. Kirby hasnt had a rep for quite a while, it did get more main games, unless you mean timing with a new one coming, which doesn't have to be the case, and also did high on polls when it mattered. Also possibly Rillaboom though I think they might go for a non-starter.)

And why the heck would you deconfirm Impa????

Just to clarify, I do think characters in the "low" category still have a shot, while characters in the very "low category" do not, or at least have a very slim chance. Those in the "Middling" liklihood tier, have nothing suggesting that they would be a pick, but no real barriers to entry as far as I know. That's why Sora is low tier because of Disney. I still don't think we'll get an indie character, but if we were to get one, Shantae is probably the pick at this point.

As for Impa...I think that bonus Mii Costume is an indication for disconfirmation.

You forgot Klonoa. But don't worry, everyone has for the last 10 years :')

Was he on the list? I don't think he was on the list.

 

[AmphabulouSnake]

Anyways Reimu Hakurei for Smash

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

On this subject, anyone mind explaining why she's not considered a 4th party? Pretty sure VNs don't count as video games so this one has been puzzling me.

Perhaps not all of them are, but they can be. For example, nobody would argue that Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney is not a game, but it is a visual novel.


Also, Ms. Tachibana from Famicom Detective Club was considered for Melee...so was James Bond though so maybe that's not the best example...

 

[Teeb147]

Just to clarify, I do think characters in the "low" category still have a shot, while characters in the very "low category" do not, or at least have a very slim chance. Those in the "Middling" liklihood tier, have nothing suggesting that they would be a pick, but no real barriers to entry as far as I know. That's why Sora is low tier because of Disney. I still don't think we'll get an indie character, but if we were to get one, Shantae is probably the pick at this point.

As for Impa...I think that bonus Mii Costume is an indication for disconfirmation.


Was he on the list? I don't think he was on the list.

Well, some people can easily think differently on those But it's ok to have your own opinion like everyone.

It makes no sense for Impa though. the mii costume isn't her and I don't think anyone would think that getting a series costume deconfirms all characters from that series.

 

[cashregister9]

Lol. I stand corrected then. She probably wont make it in because she's from a visual novel turned anime, with hentai involved directly at first

I mean by your logic Castlevania and Nintendo wouldn't be allowed, Castlevania got an anime and Nintendo used to run Love Hotels. Type-Moon afaik has moved on from any adult things in their visual novels in fact the newest rerelease of Fate/Stay Night has a lower CERO rating than Persona 5. IF for some reason they don't want to associate with Fate/Stay Night they could instead add a character from Fate/Grand Order which was the most talked about game on twitter last year. and It makes boatloads of money

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Well, some people can easily think differently on those But it's ok to have your own opinion like everyone.

It makes no sense for Impa though. the mii costume isn't her and I don't think anyone would think that getting a series costume deconfirms all characters from that series.

Well, Rex was the bonus costume for the first pass and we didn’t get a Xenoblade character as playable that pass, so I kinda think we won’t get a Zelda character as playable this pass. Would like to be wrong though

also hope Elma makes it THIS pass... I’ll even settle for Fiora or Lora

 

[Teeb147]

Well, Rex was the bonus costume for the first pass and we didn’t get a Xenoblade character as playable that pass, so I kinda think we won’t get a Zelda character as playable this pass. Would like to be wrong though

also hope Elma makes it THIS pass... I’ll even settle for Fiora or Lora

That's no evidence whatsoever for deconfirmation :/

 

[Teeb147]

I mean by your logic Castlevania and Nintendo wouldn't be allowed, Castlevania got an anime and Nintendo used to run Love Hotels. Type-Moon afaik has moved on from any adult things in their visual novels in fact the newest rerelease of Fate/Stay Night has a lower CERO rating than Persona 5. IF for some reason they don't want to associate with Fate/Stay Night they could instead add a character from Fate/Grand Order which was the most talked about game on twitter last year. and It makes boatloads of money

It's about the origin. Sakurai already said he didn't want manga characters. They're very popular, and most of the popular ones have games with them. So it's not about them being in a game or not.

edit: woops, ignore dp

 

[cashregister9]

It's about the origin. Sakurai already said he didn't want manga characters. They're very popular, and most of the popular ones have games with them.

edit: woops, ignore dp

I mean Visual Novels are in fact games, Phoenix Wright is a video game is it not?

 

[pupNapoleon]

We want this Smash drought to finally just end already.

This has surely been a long time for Smash news... but the term 'drought' really gets overused for Smash news. A month after we get information, as a whole in this community, we act as if we are then supposed to get something else.

Honestly, at this point, I'm fine if they wait until next year (though, I doubt it, and I do want it, and of course there will be one before the holidays). However, the more we don't get now, the more we will get in a likelier quicker succession next year (or if it is a bit behind, approximately three months based on Sept/E3 dates and the actual timing of the Mario anniversary being months earlier), then the more we get back to back (which, as far as I am concerned, will generate more hype for the pass, more sales, and the greater likelihood of another pass).

---------------------


Completely unrelated---- how is it Mario's 35th anniversary? If Donkey Kong was his first title, and it came out in 1981- Smash going as far to acknowledge this with Pacman's reveal- and that was 39 years ago.... how is it 35th?
Hell, even Mario Bros came out in 1983, which was 37 years ago.

Where does 35 come from, and why is it more important?

 

[Trevenant]

I fully disagree with the idea that Spring Man is the mascot. You mention in your comments the idea of large casts- particularly fighting games. He is the character that easily explains the game, a fully new concept (motion controlled first-person fighting game). He visually, and by name, tells parents to buy the game on the cover (which is incredibly important, we can discuss this more if you'd like); but it also explains the concept of the game.

The other characters, the ones with a bit more flavor, are not on the box. This is one of the few arguments as to why Spring Man is the 'mascot.' He is simply the Liu Kang of Mortal Kombat- the one who starts off to explain the game to a new audience. But, Liu Kang is not the mascot of MK- Scorpion is the mascot. Scorpion didnt really gain notoriety until the second game onwards, to the point that now he is used as emphasis on just about any MK media. This is how games based on character ensembles tend to work.

Animal Crossing didnt have a real mascot until Isabelle, many years after it's inception. Hell, the original Pokemon didnt use Pikachu as a mascot, the publishers put Charizard and Venasaur on the cover to sell games to parents... hell, it's the actual reason they switched to using Blastoise in America. Pikachu emerged over time just as- actual- mascots do of ensemble games.

I think given the noted popularity since her reveal, the voted on contest by ARMS patrons, the fact that she is in ARMS, Min Min will likely become the mascot. At the moment, there isn't one, just someone to explain the game.

Well idk, I assume the user I responded to was using how Min Min was chosen over Spring Man as a reason to think Nia would get in over Rec when in RPGS it's a lot more apparent who is the protag. I think Sakurai at least views Spring Man as a mascot because he probably wouldn't have asked Yabuki if he was when discussing the ARMS character.

Differing opinions I guess but the main point was that Xenoblade 2 doesn't have a fighting game like cast where the actual protagonist is interchangeable. Ironically enough, it's not like games don't exist where the actual protagonists is pretty much a no one like in Xenoblade X with Cross being pretty much a nobody.I

Anyway something spoiler happens to Nia which would make even less sense for her to be picked

 

[P.Kat]

Someone finally posted an image that makes sense for most of the discussed 'wanted' characters, on twitter. I think it's nice to see all together:

https://twitter.com/funktard8/status/1309936044662493186

Some of my most wanted are there, so that's great. One I don't see is Ashley though. They put other assist trophies there so I would've expected her too. Guess she's not really talked about much these days :/

The fact that Ammy, Krystal, Impa, Elma, and Saber is on here brings a tear to my eye.

Animal Crossing is probably the best game I've played this year, so heck yeah. Gonna pick it back up after being on a hiatus with it today.

Now, since everything is about Smash, how 'bout Nook for Smash?

I've have yet to play the new Animal Crossing. I gotta get around to it. It looks so good.

I could see them swapping out everyone who wasn't Elma, Lin, or what's his face (the boss man) due to their importance to the story or world respectively. Oh, and I'd bet Cross will be swapped out for another avatar because it's difficult to handle avatars in situations like these.

Nintendo Direct music plays
"Don't worry, Your favorite Xenoblade X characters (and maybe Cross... Who knows) Are back, in this thrilling open world sequel..."

Imma shill here and say if you like VNs, Mecha, RTS and kick ass music and have a PS4, id suggest getting 13 Sentinels: Aegis Rim

You had me at VNs, and Mecha...

 

[Lamperouge]

Well, Rex was the bonus costume for the first pass and we didn’t get a Xenoblade character as playable that pass, so I kinda think we won’t get a Zelda character as playable this pass. Would like to be wrong though

also hope Elma makes it THIS pass... I’ll even settle for Fiora or Lora

...Or maybe, just maybe...there just weren't any plans for a Xenoblade character in FP1 regardless of the Rex Mii costume? I highly doubt that Zelda would be disconfirmed for this pass just because we can dress up in the Ancient gear.

Not saying a Zelda character will happen, mind you, but I think your theory is a bit silly.

 

[Teeb147]

I mean Visual Novels are in fact games, Phoenix Wright is a video game is it not?

I wouldn't consider visual novels games unless there's a lot more to them that makes them into a game. Pheonix wright as a lot of clues to use to progress, in example. I dont know if they'd consider phoenix for smash though.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

It makes no sense for Impa though. the mii costume isn't her and I don't think anyone would think that getting a series costume deconfirms all characters from that series.

I'm pretty sure it actually is the general consensus. For example, once Heihachi was revealed, everyone said "well R.I.P. Tekken" even though Jin could technically still be the pick. Having a Mii Costume, and then a fighter afterward runs into the same issue of unnecessary renegotiations that it would for the same character since you're negotiating with the same rights holders. It's why some people even think a costume disconfirms the entire company (which I do not agree with). Granted, as a first party, The Legend of Zelda does not run into that issue, but you still have to wonder why the costume was added as a bonus costume instead of with whoever they pick's DLC wave.

Completely unrelated---- how is it Mario's 35th anniversary? If Donkey Kong was his first title, and it came out in 1981- Smash going as far to acknowledge this with Pacman's reveal- and that was 39 years ago.... how is it 35th?
Hell, even Mario Bros came out in 1983, which was 37 years ago.

Where does 35 come from, and why is it more important?

Super Mario Bros. came out 35 years ago, which means Nintendo is being a bit inconsistant since they consider Mario Bros. to be a Super Mario game, but the start of the series to be Super Mario Bros.

 

[Teeb147]

I'm pretty sure it actually is the general consensus. For example, once Heihachi was revealed, everyone said "well R.I.P. Tekken" even though Jin could technically still be the pick. Having a Mii Costume, and then a fighter afterward runs into the same issue of unnecessary renegotiations that it would for the same character since you're negotiating with the same rights holders. It's why some people even think a costume disconfirms the entire company (which I do not agree with). Granted, as a first party, The Legend of Zelda does not run into that issue, but you still have to wonder why the costume was added as a bonus costume instead of with whoever they pick's DLC wave.


Super Mario Bros. came out 35 years ago, which means Nintendo is being a bit inconsistant since they consider Mario Bros. to be a Super Mario game, but the start of the series to be Super Mario Bros.

Definitely not the general concensus lol. Impa is talked about as a contender.

mii costume doesnt deconfirm a series, that's silly.

 

[TwiceEXE]

Definitely not the general concensus lol. Impa is talked about as a contender.

mii costume doesnt deconfirm a series, that's silly.

Nah, it's definitely general consensus that Mii costumes disconfirm.

 

[P.Kat]

it's not like games don't exist where the actual protagonists is pretty much a no one like in Xenoblade X with Cross being pretty much a nobody.

Kingdom Hearts Xenoblade X crossover when?

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Nintendo Direct music plays
"Don't worry, Your favorite Xenoblade X characters (and maybe Cross... Who knows) Are back, in this thrilling open world sequel..."

Well I didn't say it was a given, just that it could happen, especially if they wanted to add more characters without letting us drown in them.

Add playable Noppon and Ma-non in sequel plz.

 

[Teeb147]

Nah, it's definitely general consensus that Mii costumes disconfirm.

The character, not the series

 

[TwiceEXE]

The character, not the series

Well, most series only have one character viewed as viable for the series. So it's both.

Ryu, Cloud, Bayonetta, Corrin, Joker, Hero, Banjo, Terry, Byleth, and Min Min all are protagonists of games that didn't have fighters in Smash previously. That's the formula for DLC that we have seen for half a decade. We can assume that will continue.

 

[P.Kat]

Well I didn't say it was a given, just that it could happen, especially if they wanted to add more characters without letting us drown in them.

Add playable Noppon and Ma-non in sequel plz.

I know, just a little humor on Cross' character. But yeah thinning out the lesser characters would be the way to go to include new ones.

 

[Teeb147]

Well, most series only have one character viewed as viable for the series. So it's both.

Ryu, Cloud, Bayonetta, Corrin, Joker, Hero, Banjo, Terry, Byleth, and Min Min all are protagonists of games that didn't have fighters in Smash previously. That's the formula for DLC that we have seen for half a decade. We can assume that will continue.

I so don't understand what you and SMAASH! Puppy think around this.
We got an assist trophy AND mii costume for Arms before Min Min. How does a mii costume deconfirm a series???

 

[pupNapoleon]

New Resident Evil series confirmed for Netflix.

Obviously doesn't mean anything for a character in specificity, but this media presence contributes to why RE is the largest game Capcom has available (and why we need to get Jill Valentine).

 

[TwiceEXE]

I so don't understand what you and SMAASH! Puppy think around this.
We got an assist trophy AND mii costume for Arms before Min Min. How does a mii costume deconfirm a series???

I'm not talking about my thoughts I'm talking about general consensus. And you are attempting to conflate a conversation about DLC Mii Costumes with base game Mii Costumes, but they are completely different. Just like base game Spirits and post launch Spirit events are different.

 

[Teeb147]

I'm not talking about my thoughts I'm talking about general consensus. And you are attempting to conflate a conversation about DLC Mii Costumes with base game Mii Costumes, but they are completely different. Just like base game Spirits and post launch Spirit events are different.

That makes no sense at all. How are they completely different? They're not. If it's just the passage of time that made it ok to put min min in, then how much time do you need before it's ok to put a zelda character in? anyway.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I so don't understand what you and SMAASH! Puppy think around this.
We got an assist trophy AND mii costume for Arms before Min Min. How does a mii costume deconfirm a series???

It deconfirms for that specific pass only. They may get a shot next pass (mind you I still don’t think we’re getting Rex in particular tho)

side note, while ARMS did have an AT and costumes in base, it didn’t have a stage OR music. I kiiiinda think music, or the lack thereof, may be what makes or breaks a series (or specific installment) getting a character. There was also no 3H music specifically before Byleth got in.

it’s why I also doubt an XC2 character and a MonHun character - there’s already music in the base game, not a lot, but still. On the flip side, XCX and Octo Expansion (I know the latter’s DLC but it’s big enough to basically be its own game) has no music...

New Resident Evil series confirmed for Netflix.

Obviously doesn't mean anything for a character in specificity, but this media presence contributes to why RE is the largest game Capcom has available (and why we need to get Jill Valentine).

I’m just glad they’re not going with the Wesker’s children idea they initially had

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

New Resident Evil series confirmed for Netflix.

Obviously doesn't mean anything for a character in specificity, but this media presence contributes to why RE is the largest game Capcom has available (and why we need to get Jill Valentine).

Ah yes, Wesker's children. Everyone's favorite.

...Eh, the movies were wildly popular. Maybe this will be too.

I think a Resident Evil character would be cool. It's a shame they don't seem to be in the running.

If it's just the passage of time that made it ok to put min min in, then how much time do you need before it's ok to put a zelda character in? anyway.

Time enough for another round of considerations. In this case, that's the next game.

 

[Teeb147]

In whatever case, it's just random logic to say a mii costume means no character of that series.

They couldve just wanted something to have to give with the pass, and it's BoW, while they could easily have more mii costumes from HW2 if they want to release a character from it. There's no way the logic would hold up.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Been watching more Angry Beavers. What have I been missing?

 

[Cutie Gwen]

In whatever case, it's just random logic to say a mii costume means no character of that series.

They couldve just wanted something to have to give with the pass, and it's BoW, while they could easily have more mii costumes from HW2 if they want to release a character from it. There's no way the logic would hold up.

Ehhhhh HW2 is literally BotW so the argument can be made that it'd be saved. Plus, nobody's saying we could get Tekken later down the line as we already got one of it's most iconic characters as a Mii. In any case, I don't think Zelda being first party is significant enough to change my stance on that matter so I'm treating it as equal to Tekken, Assassin's Creed, etc

 

[Teeb147]

Ehhhhh HW2 is literally BotW so the argument can be made that it'd be saved. Plus, nobody's saying we could get Tekken later down the line as we already got one of it's most iconic characters as a Mii. In any case, I don't think Zelda being first party is significant enough to change my stance on that matter so I'm treating it as equal to Tekken, Assassin's Creed, etc

That makes no difference to nintendo, if they want to rep a new game.

 

[Cosmic77]

People are way too quick to say Zelda is deconfirmed.

If the Mii Costume was short-haired Zelda or decomposing Ganondorf, then yeah, I might be more willing to say we probably weren't getting a Zelda character. The costume we ended up getting is, let's be honest, a very insignificant part of the orginal BotW that may or may not be present in BotW2 or even AoC. Do I feel like Sakurai was obligated to save that Mii costume for later just because it came from the same universe? No, not really. Do I think Sakurai would choose that costume if we were getting Zelda content later down the road? Not sure, but that's just something we'll have to wait and see. Zelda will likely be relevant in most of 2021, so we could be waiting as late as F11.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

That makes no difference to nintendo, if they want to rep a new game.

No, but, if they already have, then there's reason to believe that they think that will be sufficient. There's also a high chance that the Guardian set was added because The Legend of Zelda didn't get a character, and they wanted to give it something, just like with Rex.