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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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Shroob

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Can you explain?
Ask Venus. I'm just going off what he's been saying, but in his own foray into the Japanese side of things, from what he's seen, our friends over in JP don't think the 7-11 ad means anything more than to drum up sales due to the Pass probably underperforming.

I kinda think that's a bit sus reasoning since, if people weren't buying the pass already, what good would promoting it do when people already didn't want it, but it seems like the JP side is slightly more reserved in expecting something soon.
 
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PSIGuy

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Ask Venus. I'm just going off what he's been saying, but in his own foray into the Japanese side of things, from what he's seen, our friends over in JP don't think the 7-11 ad means anything more than to drum up sales due to the Pass probably underperforming.
I can hear the meeting at Nintendo HQ already.


"JENKINS! Why are sales of our second Fighter's Pass so low?!"
"W-well sir, it might be because there's not much content out for it y-yet-"
"NONSENSE! There's plenty of content! Minmin's out! Don't they know that Minmin's out?! I want advertisements at every 7-11 showcasing that Minmin is in the Fighter's Pass and I want them there by yesterday!"
"R-right away sir."
 

Shroob

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I can hear the meeting at Nintendo HQ already.


"JENKINS! Why are sales of our second Fighter's Pass so low?!"
"W-well sir, it might be because there's not much content out for it y-yet-"
"NONSENSE! There's plenty of content! Minmin's out! Don't they know that Minmin's out?! I want advertisements at every 7-11 showcasing that Minmin is in the Fighter's Pass and I want them there by yesterday!"
"R-right away sir."
As much as I doubt their logic of "The ads exist to try to drum up sales for the pass and nothing more"


MAN

I can 100% believe that this pass' sales are probably not the greatest tbh. Like, no shade to MinMin, but.... I mean, she's kinda got the odds stacked against her in terms of hype.


Back to back 1st party reveals
Previous pass started on a HUGE 3rd party blowout character
The game's basically 2 years old and the playerbase has probably diminished heavily with time, meaning less sales in general
ARMs in general not being the most 'exciting' choice, at least compared to another BLOWOUT third party reveal


Like, hype's subjective sure, but between the guessing game that lasted for 3 months, and starting the 2nd pass more on a mild applause than a huge explosion like the first one, yeah, I can imagine sales probably aren't the greatest.


Not 'bad' by any means, it's Smash after all, but definitely nowhere near as high as the CEOs probably want atm.
 
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Calamitas

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Not saying Pyra's design is awful, but the more I look at it, the more confused I get.
Fun fact: According to developer interviews, the intention behind that design was to convey that she's sort of an "incomplete" person, like she's missing something. Which then would hint at the existence of Mythra.
And, uh. . . I think I don't need to say anything else on that.

Though on the subject of that game's design, this little video always comes to mind for me.

 

Trevenant

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Sakurai: Nia was chosen for the Xenoblade rep because I like cats, the creator wanted her and also everyone is the protagonist in Xenoblade.
I was just catching up on the thread and really wanted to respond to this. and the main thing is I don't see how you are comparing what happened with Min Min to someone getting added other than Rex from Xeno 2.

Fighting games, especially ones like ARMS which are in their infancy, quite a lot of the time have interchangeable casts. The only reason Spring Man one ups everyone else is because he's the mascot NOT the protagonist. I really wish Sakurai or the localisation voice over guy didn't spread this false narrative that people were considering Spring Man the protagonist when it's obvious they weren't, they were considering him because he is quite clearly the mascot.

Then we have Rex who is quite clearly meant to be the protagonist from Xeno 2. He is the character who you first play as and play as for the rest of the game with few exceptions, a lot of the important parts of the plot revolve around him and Pyra etc. If we wanna say everyone is a protagonist just based on there being a party then we can look at the current roster to consider that party members never get in before the actual protags of the game and as much as I like Nia, it's quite apparent that she isn't the protagonist of Xeno 2 and it seems we are misconstruing what Sakurai said and using it to practically every situation it can apply to which leads to incorrect assumptions which are flat out incorrect.

And I also see you post this way too much even after people tell you why such isn't the case so idk maybe that could slow down a bit with that. I'm not even saying that Nia won't be chosen but it's kind of apparent why it's unlikely as Xeno 2 isn't in an ARMS situation in terms of protagonists. The fact that Sakurai asked Yabuki if Spring Man was the MC attests to how he was at least concerned of his absence only until after, being clarified that everyone in ARMS is the protag, which isn't the case with Xeno 2
 

Shroob

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Just wanna say in regards to my last post:


There's nothing wrong with first party characters, but I think someone said it best, though I can't remember who exactly;


"You expect Nintendo characters to be in a Nintendo game, likewise, 3rd party characters are huge surprises."


Obviously, there are exceptions to this rule. Ridley and K.Rool were enormous surprises in the base Roster which caught people off guard and were extremely hype inducing, but there's been something said countless times that I hard agree with, namely, we're basically getting to the point where we're gonna have to scrape the bottom of the barrel for big 1st party names. That's not to say there aren't any left though.

Dixie and Rex come to mind, with Rex arguably being one of the most wanted characters in Japan, but then you have to start grabbing B or C listers, and while there's nothing inherently wrong with that, you also kinda have to accept that they're nowhere going to be as 'hype' as a 3rd party character bringing in a whole new franchise with them.


If someone like a Gen 8 Pokemon were to be revealed, I mean, sure, it'd be big due to it being a new character, but everyone 'kinda' already expects it, and Pokemon's already represented well as is, so while it'd be talked about sure.... well, not gonna lie, MinMin's 'wow' factor died before it even began due to the 3 month guessing game, and ARM's kinda... meh-ness in general.


Likewise, Crash, Dante, etc get in, internet explodes, fans explodes, newsites explode, it's a big ****ing deal that this character joined Smash.



I'm not really sure what Nintendo's 'plan' was in regards to opening with MinMin. They obviously couldn't predict Covid, which probably threw a huge wrench in their plans, but with how little info we have in regards to this pass, it would not surprise me at all if the 2nd pass is underperforming due to a lack of "wow" factor to it.
 

SpectreJordan

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I’ve said this before but I imagine it was easier to work on first party characters first. When it came to the FP1, they had to transition the team from base game to DLC team.

I doubt there was any transition period like that for FP2. So they could potentially start work on any Nintendo characters immediately. Meanwhile, third parties would have to take a bit longer as the ink dries on the deals.
 

Cutie Gwen

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Fun fact: According to developer interviews, the intention behind that design was to convey that she's sort of an "incomplete" person, like she's missing something. Which then would hint at the existence of Mythra.
And, uh. . . I think I don't need to say anything else on that.

Though on the subject of that game's design, this little video always comes to mind for me.

Tbf it's supposed to foreshadow The Good Part Of The Plot You Had To Wait 40 Hours I Swear It Gets Good Now It's Worth All The Bad Parts people say to defend the game with
Pneuma, especially how both the girls share green and black as a secondary colour, but it's still weird to give Pyra an unfitting design, especially when Pneuma has no red, Pyra's main colour, but she does have white, Mythra's main colour, not to mention how neither of the girls have blue on them meaning the whole duality aspect that's supposed to be a core design aspect for the two stops making sense very quickly
 
D

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I am thinking about Alpharad's theory.

He claims CP5 was Tracer, but due the whole controversy where Blizzard censored a Hong Kong player, they removed Tracer and used Byleth. Alpharad claimed the stage is quite rushed.

He admits it is a crazy theory, and I believe it is false, but thoughts?
 
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Professor Pumpkaboo

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What are the chances if the second pass is underperforming they'll cancel further DLC?
They already have the pass done and people probably have already bought the pass. If they cancel the whole thing, they can and will get in trouble
 
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D

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I think the second pass isn't doing as well compared to the first pass, because Smash Ultimate is almost two years old now.

Ending FP1 with :ultbylethf: and starting FP2 with :ultminmin could have also hurt the sales a bit. I love these characters, but I don't think they hit as hard as someone like :ultjoker: in terms of sales.

Despite this, I think they will still make hotcakes from FP2. It is Smash. It is one of the most popular fighting games of all time now. Plus, there are five characters left for us to experience in FP2.
 
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D

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I will say, is the pass is really doing this piss poor in Japan, Maybe min min wasnt a good character to show first at all
I wouldn't say "piss poor". It is Smash. I think it is doing quite well.

I would say it is underperforming compared to FP1 though. Smash Ultimate is getting old, and the playerbase is decreasing.
 
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SKX31

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As much as I doubt their logic of "The ads exist to try to drum up sales for the pass and nothing more"


MAN

I can 100% believe that this pass' sales are probably not the greatest tbh. Like, no shade to MinMin, but.... I mean, she's kinda got the odds stacked against her in terms of hype.


Back to back 1st party reveals
Previous pass started on a HUGE 3rd party blowout character
The game's basically 2 years old and the playerbase has probably diminished heavily with time, meaning less sales in general
ARMs in general not being the most 'exciting' choice, at least compared to another BLOWOUT third party reveal


Like, hype's subjective sure, but between the guessing game that lasted for 3 months, and starting the 2nd pass more on a mild applause than a huge explosion like the first one, yeah, I can imagine sales probably aren't the greatest.


Not 'bad' by any means, it's Smash after all, but definitely nowhere near as high as the CEOs probably want atm.
Add to that Min Min's reception post-release: Sure, she's been quite well-recieved overall, but:

1. She doesn't have much of a competitive record due to the pandemic and stay-at-home orders.
2. Her biggest claim to fame is not really exciting - it's "oh I can camp / edgeguard half the cast forever until they die".
3. Her casual playerbase diminished quite quickly.



I am thinking about Alpharad's theory.

He claims CP5 was Tracer, but due the whole controversy where Blizzard censored a Hong Kong player, they removed Tracer and used Byleth. Alpharad claimed the stage is quite rushed.

He admits it is a crazy theory, and I believe it is false, but thoughts?
I have problems with that theory:

First and foremost that Nintendo has revealed characters around the time controversial games were topical in the past (:ultsnake: was unveiled at "EVERYONE IS HERE!" mere months after Metal Gear Survive came out and died, :4corrin: was packaged with the hotly-contested Fates. Etc.).

Second, Nintendo tries to avoid mentioning politics at every turn, in an effort to keep the family-friendly image up.

Third, Nintendo has tried to establish a foothold in China since 2003: the repeated attempts generally failing eventually lead to Nintendo working with Tencent on the Chinese Switch, with Tencent publishing. From Nintendo's PoV: Tencent has something Nintendo themselves don't have on their own - a vast social media / ad network within China. It's like if Nintendo let Facebook publish the Switch (Tencent's about as big as Facebook too). FTR, Blizzard works with NetEase (the 2nd biggest Chinese gaming company, behind Tencent.): it is NetEase that publishes Blizzard's titles in China.

Now, neither Tencent nor NetEase are = the Chinese state (Tencent and NetEase have come to blows with the state in the past), but the two companies work uncomfortably closely with it. Still, if Blizzard didn't completely rescind Blitzchung's ban (it was reduced by half to six months), then I doubt Nintendo would've pulled Tracer because of that.

It's more likely IMHO that Tracer was simply not in FP1 to begin with.

I think the second pass isn't doing as well compared to the first pass, because Smash Ultimate is almost two years old now.
Never really thought age was a massive problem, not when games like LoL and GTA V are still absolutely humongous years after release. Then again, those titles do get more consistent updates than Ultimate does...
 

Staarih

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I feel like as the first pass already blew their expectations and seemingly sold very well, it might've already done the equivalent of two passes. Even so, the expectations for FP2 are likely lower just for the fact that Ultimate is getting older and the interest will not reach the same high's as its first years. We're promised five more characters and we'll get them and Sakurai and co will get whatever coin they get out of it (whether or not the characters are "hype" is irrelevant at this point), and that's likely it for DLC imo.
 
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RetrogamerMax

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Just wanna say in regards to my last post:


There's nothing wrong with first party characters, but I think someone said it best, though I can't remember who exactly;


"You expect Nintendo characters to be in a Nintendo game, likewise, 3rd party characters are huge surprises."


Obviously, there are exceptions to this rule. Ridley and K.Rool were enormous surprises in the base Roster which caught people off guard and were extremely hype inducing, but there's been something said countless times that I hard agree with, namely, we're basically getting to the point where we're gonna have to scrape the bottom of the barrel for big 1st party names. That's not to say there aren't any left though.

Dixie and Rex come to mind, with Rex arguably being one of the most wanted characters in Japan, but then you have to start grabbing B or C listers, and while there's nothing inherently wrong with that, you also kinda have to accept that they're nowhere going to be as 'hype' as a 3rd party character bringing in a whole new franchise with them.


If someone like a Gen 8 Pokemon were to be revealed, I mean, sure, it'd be big due to it being a new character, but everyone 'kinda' already expects it, and Pokemon's already represented well as is, so while it'd be talked about sure.... well, not gonna lie, MinMin's 'wow' factor died before it even began due to the 3 month guessing game, and ARM's kinda... meh-ness in general.


Likewise, Crash, Dante, etc get in, internet explodes, fans explodes, newsites explode, it's a big ****ing deal that this character joined Smash.



I'm not really sure what Nintendo's 'plan' was in regards to opening with MinMin. They obviously couldn't predict Covid, which probably threw a huge wrench in their plans, but with how little info we have in regards to this pass, it would not surprise me at all if the 2nd pass is underperforming due to a lack of "wow" factor to it.
I would consider Nintendo characters like Toad, Bandana Dee, Waluigi, Pig Ganon, Skull Kid, Krystal, and Elma as A listers as well as these characters either have the legacy or the popularity to be claimed as a A listers among Nintendo choices.
 
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LiveStudioAudience

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I would consider Nintendo characters like Toad, Bandana Dee, Waluigi, Pig Ganon, Skull Kid, Krystal, and Elma as A listers as well as these characters either have the legacy or the popularity to be claimed as a A listers among Nintendo choices.
Well I think the issue specifically is that those franchises are not quite A List (Kirby and Xenoblade are doing fine but not on the level of a Mario or Zelda), are from series that have seen better days (Star Fox with Krystal) or have characters that wouldn't immediately excite as major third party ones (Ganon, Skull Kid, Toad).

Waluigi is the closest to an exception given his status, but compared to the likes of a Sora, Master Chief, or even a Crash Bandicoot, there would be a clear difference in attention from casual/non fans about the news.
 

RetrogamerMax

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Well I think the issue specifically is that those franchises are not quite A List (Kirby and Xenoblade are doing fine but not on the level of a Mario or Zelda), are from series that have seen better days (Star Fox with Krystal) or have characters that wouldn't immediately excite as major third party ones (Ganon, Skull Kid, Toad).

Waluigi is the closest to an exception given his status, but compared to the likes of a Sora, Master Chief, or even a Crash Bandicoot, there would be a clear difference in attention from casual/non fans about the news.
But I feel like despite Toad not being as popular or hyped as Waluigi or big 3rd party characters per say, he has the legacy and is just as important as the rest of the Mario cast that's already in the roster. Toad has been in literally every Mario game since the original Super Mario Bros. on NES so I think Toad is a A lister no matter how you view him. Pig Ganon as well since he is the main antagonist of Zelda and has been in more games than Ganondorf despite them being the same character technically.
 
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D

Deleted member

Guest
Just wanna say in regards to my last post:


There's nothing wrong with first party characters, but I think someone said it best, though I can't remember who exactly;


"You expect Nintendo characters to be in a Nintendo game, likewise, 3rd party characters are huge surprises."


Obviously, there are exceptions to this rule. Ridley and K.Rool were enormous surprises in the base Roster which caught people off guard and were extremely hype inducing, but there's been something said countless times that I hard agree with, namely, we're basically getting to the point where we're gonna have to scrape the bottom of the barrel for big 1st party names. That's not to say there aren't any left though.

Dixie and Rex come to mind, with Rex arguably being one of the most wanted characters in Japan, but then you have to start grabbing B or C listers, and while there's nothing inherently wrong with that, you also kinda have to accept that they're nowhere going to be as 'hype' as a 3rd party character bringing in a whole new franchise with them.


If someone like a Gen 8 Pokemon were to be revealed, I mean, sure, it'd be big due to it being a new character, but everyone 'kinda' already expects it, and Pokemon's already represented well as is, so while it'd be talked about sure.... well, not gonna lie, MinMin's 'wow' factor died before it even began due to the 3 month guessing game, and ARM's kinda... meh-ness in general.


Likewise, Crash, Dante, etc get in, internet explodes, fans explodes, newsites explode, it's a big ****ing deal that this character joined Smash.



I'm not really sure what Nintendo's 'plan' was in regards to opening with MinMin. They obviously couldn't predict Covid, which probably threw a huge wrench in their plans, but with how little info we have in regards to this pass, it would not surprise me at all if the 2nd pass is underperforming due to a lack of "wow" factor to it.
Very well said, Shroob!

I agree. When a third party gets in Smash, it feels like a whole new world when they joined.

As much as I really like Byleth and Min Min, it just wasn't the same as a reveal like Joker, even if I am more knowledgeable about Byleth than Joker.
 
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Teeb147

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Someone finally posted an image that makes sense for most of the discussed 'wanted' characters, on twitter. I think it's nice to see all together:




Some of my most wanted are there, so that's great. One I don't see is Ashley though. They put other assist trophies there so I would've expected her too. Guess she's not really talked about much these days :/
 

ROBnWatch

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Here’s a random thought, though it may sound weird/dumb at first.

What if FP7 is taking a bit longer because, aside from the stage and music they’re coming with, there will be another (small-scale) mode added, and that’s taking longer than anticipated.

Now I know Sakurai said Home Run Contest would be the last, but he’s also gone back on his word a few times before as well. In the same regard, why not just release FP7 now and add in the hypothetical new mode when it’s done/with whatever character releases closest to it’s completion?

I know, maybe not something we should really be expecting (and likely isn’t the case), but it’s something I thought might be worth bringing up if only to make new discussion as we wait out the drought.

Please be this week...
 
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LiveStudioAudience

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But I feel like despite Toad not being as popular or hyped as Waluigi or big 3rd party characters per say, he has the legacy and is just as important as the rest of the Mario cast that's already in the roster. Toad has been in literally every Mario game since the original Super Mario Bros. on NES so I think Toad is a A lister no matter how you view him. Pig Ganon as well since he is the main antagonist of Zelda and has been in more games than Ganondorf despite them being the same character technically.
With Ganon its the case where both the physical pig form has been downplayed in the mainline games (with Skyward Sword not having him at all and BotW leaning closer to an eldritch abomination interpretation, and that he's already in Smash in the form of a boss. There some hype of having a boss playable, but its still not quite a huge new deal to many.

With Toad its a situation where everybody knows him yeah; its just that many are not really as excited for him. Its a bit like of there was a big new third person action game based on the original Star Wars trilogy and one of the big advertised playable characters was C-3P0. Yes everyone knows who he is and he's as famous as any of the other SW figures, but on average more people are going to be thrilled to play as Han, Luke, Leia, and Chewie. Toad's been only been allowed one game tor really stand out as something beyond just having similar abilities to Mario or Luigi (Captain Toad) and so what aspect from the Mario games he could bring just isn't as much of a given as it was with a Bowser or Yoshi.
 

CapitaineCrash

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I am thinking about Alpharad's theory.

He claims CP5 was Tracer, but due the whole controversy where Blizzard censored a Hong Kong player, they removed Tracer and used Byleth. Alpharad claimed the stage is quite rushed.

He admits it is a crazy theory, and I believe it is false, but thoughts?
Apparently, the character model in the Garreg mach stage are used from Three houses, which is why they look rough.

But I feel like despite Toad not being as popular or hyped as Waluigi or big 3rd party characters per say, he has the legacy and is just as important as the rest of the Mario cast that's already in the roster. Toad has been in literally every Mario game since the original Super Mario Bros. on NES so I think Toad is a A lister no matter how you view him. Pig Ganon as well since he is the main antagonist of Zelda and has been in more games than Ganondorf despite them being the same character technically.
I get what you mean when you say that Toad and Pig Ganon are A list character, but the original point was more about character overall reaction. Toad is super important, but I think his reaction would be "oh that's Toad" and people would move on pretty fast aside from big Mario fan. Pig Ganon reaction would probably be "another Ganon". Even if those character are important to Nintendo, I don't see them having a positive reaction in the same vein as Dante, Crash, Ryu Hayabusa etc.
 

RetrogamerMax

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With Ganon its the case where both the physical pig form has been downplayed in the mainline games (with Skyward Sword not having him at all and BotW leaning closer to an eldritch abomination interpretation, and that he's already in Smash in the form of a boss. There some hype of having a boss playable, but its still not quite a huge new deal to many.

With Toad its a situation where everybody knows him yeah; its just that many are not really as excited for him. Its a bit like of there was a big new third person action game based on the original Star Wars trilogy and one of the big advertised playable characters was C-3P0. Yes everyone knows who he is and he's as famous as any of the other SW figures, but on average more people are going to be thrilled to play as Han, Luke, Leia, and Chewie. Toad's been only been allowed one game tor really stand out as something beyond just having similar abilities to Mario or Luigi (Captain Toad) and so what aspect from the Mario games he could bring just isn't as much of a given as it was with a Bowser or Yoshi.
But I'm talking about the more iconic blue mage Pig Ganon from the 2D Zelda games. Theywould obliviously base playable Pig Ganon in Smash off of that version of Ganon.
 

SpectreJordan

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What is considered Sexual changes between Culture and Person, Rating boards usually base it off of culture so can we PLEASE change topics I even have a thing.

What songs do you want for your most wanted?

EDIT: Here are Mine

Victory music:
Target Vanquished!

Remixes:

Whereabouts of the light
Sophisticated Fight
Fateful Confrontation

Regular music:

Strepitoso Fight
Determination of fight
The Merciless Savior
Silver Will
The Glint of Cold Steel
Get Over The Barrier!
Azure Arbitrator
Valestein Castle (From Ys)
Sunshine Coastline (From Ys)
Gadobadorrer (From Brandish)
Earnestly Advance (From Tokyo Xanadu)
Demon Lord Vesper (From Zwei!!)
Soaring Through Azure Sadness (From Gurumin)
Here’s the list of Halo tracks I’d want in Smash. We usually get around 8-12 tracks with each character, so the first 12 are the songs I think are essential. Everything else would be nice but not necessary unless Master Chief somehow gets the Terry treatment. & if he did, I included a couple of Xbox themed tracks I’d like to see lol


I almost wanted to include Bethesda related music too, but that deal won’t be done until June so it wouldn’t happen lol

I haven’t played the Fable games so I didn’t know what to include for them. But if Chief came with general Xbox content, then Fable would definitely show up too.
 
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MooMew64

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Here’s a random thought, though it may sound weird/dumb at first.

What if FP7 is taking a bit longer because, aside from the stage and music they’re coming with, there will be another (small-scale) mode added, and that’s taking longer than anticipated.

Now I know Sakurai said Home Run Contest would be the last, but he’s also gone back on his word a few times before as well. In the same regard, why not just release FP7 now and add in the hypothetical new mode when it’s done/with whatever character releases closest to it’s completion.

I know, maybe not something we should really be expecting (and likely isn’t the case), but it’s something I thought might be worth bringing up if only to make new discussion as we wait out the drought.

Please be this week...
As cool as that would be...I sadly doubt it. IMO, I think what happened is CP7 was probably ready to ship out early this month and the team were getting ready for it, but Nintendo came in last minute and said "Yeaaaaah about that: You're not dropping that patch yet, we wanna market other things first. Put it on the shelf and wait until we say so."

Otherwise? I'd say that if it takes until the third week of October or later just to get this character revealed and it wasn't Nintendo marketing causing it, then odds are IMO that the pass end date gets hit with a delay.
 
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D

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Do you think Rex is as likely as Monster Hunter? Sure, Rex has a lot of things going for him, but Monster Hunter got a whole direct dedicated to them.
 
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RetrogamerMax

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Ok but

Elma.

I still got a really good feeling about her, y’all sleeping on her tbh
If we get another Nintendo rep in Fighter's Pass 2, I believe it's going to be another Xenoblade rep specifically Elma. Now I will see myself out before people start debating me why Rex would make it over her soley due his popularity and Xenoblade 2's.
 

LiveStudioAudience

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But I'm talking about the more iconic blue mage Pig Ganon from the 2D Zelda games. Theywould obliviously base playable Pig Ganon in Smash off of that version of Ganon.
In that sense I think it would be viewed as a fun retro pick, but even with its status from an A level franchise, not necessarily the biggest deal to the general audience either. To draw a third party comparison, if there was a Nintendo vs. Final Fantasy fighting game, and one of the big mystery reveals was the last boss from one of the latter franchise's games, I don't think its outrageous to suggest a Sephiroth or Kefka would get greater attention and hype than Chaos, even with the latter being the first ultimate antagonist of a FF game.
 
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