Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[GoodGrief741]

Characters don't need to have evidence that they're in; hell, most of them don't. It's very rare for us to get something like Suda's comments on Travis that tips us towards a character having been selected.

For most characters, be they Dixie Kong, Crash, Heihachi, whoever, the best that can be produced is reasons why they would have been chosen, and reasons why they wouldn't have been. Pros and cons to their inclusions. That's it.

Most fanbases can be content with proving why their character would make sense to be added. I don't know why the Geno fanbase so desperately feels the need to prove, not that Geno could be in, but that he is. It's not like he isn't a contender already, so why exaggerate?

 

[TheBeastHimself]

delete this, I don't wanna get into a big argument over trivial matters

 

[AceAttorney9000]

I'm still of the camp that Geno is very possible.


But when I look at a lot of the evidence... I mean, I just don't see it. I want to get it out in the air that, I don't hate Geno, I've NEVER hated Geno, and I like Super Mario RPG a whole lot, but I'm just not seeing it.



But as someone who's actually dealt with Insider **** in the past, color me unimpressed with a lot of the evidence. Sure, I'd love to be wrong, I'd love for Geno fans to finally feel that satisfaction of feeling vindicated for being dedicated for soo long, but a lot of the stuff I've read really is circumstantial at best.



But hey, if Imran or Zhunge, or Drake or whoever come out and start teasing around the time the next announcement gets announced, of course I'll listen, THAT will be actual evidence in his favor.

I actually think Geno is a very real possibility for this pass but I don’t think that a lot of the evidence presented for him is really “evidence” it can be brought up as theories and that’s understandable but a lot of people are going to dismiss that just as much as people dismissed any other theory. Like, theories are always brought up that a character might get revealed to coincide with a game and those are always immediately shut down too.

If you think Geno is likely or at least possible, then you mind elaborating on what makes you think that? There's a ton of stuff seemingly pointing towards Geno's inclusion, but if all that if just "circumstantial at best", then what's the actual thing that makes you think he's likely despite the rest being "circumstantial at best" (and no, I mean besides the fan demand)?

We recently discovered an interview comment where Suda51 says "I have no comment" in regards to Travis in Smash, and that resulted in a ton of people here going crazy and saying "OH MY GOD, TRAVIS MIGHT BE IN" because it's seemingly uncharacteristic of Suda to dodge the question like that (since he's usually pretty open about whether or not Travis is in Smash, which usually means Travis isn't in)... despite that, by the logic everyone uses with evidence for Geno, this interview comment is also "circumstantial" and thus means nothing for Travis.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

~snip~

Yeah, it's like...for a thread that doesn't want to argue about the Geno fandom, they seem to bring them up a lot. Most of the time it doesn't even seem to be a comment about Geno himself that sparks discussion either. It's just...bashing because reasons.

 

[Shroob]

If you think Geno is likely or at least possible, then you mind elaborating on what makes you think that? There's a ton of stuff seemingly pointing towards Geno's inclusion, but if all that if just "circumstantial at best", then what's the actual thing that makes you think he's likely despite the rest being "circumstantial at best" (and no, I mean besides the fan demand)?

We recently discovered an interview comment where Suda51 says "I have no comment" in regards to Travis in Smash, and that resulted in a ton of people here going crazy and saying "OH MY GOD, TRAVIS MIGHT BE IN" because it's seemingly uncharacteristic of Suda to dodge the question like that (since he's usually pretty open about whether or not Travis is in Smash, which usually means Travis isn't in)... despite that, by the logic everyone uses with evidence for Geno, this interview comment is also "circumstantial" and thus means nothing for Travis.

I think he's likely because any character is likely. We flat out don't know who's coming next, so for all intents and purposes, it's still anyone's game. I don't need a random copyright strike on a video to make me think "He could happen", because, he could happen, just like anyone could.



There's a difference here between "He could happen" and "I think he's happening".

 

[TheBeastHimself]

Yeah, it's like...for a thread that doesn't want to argue about the Geno fandom, they seem to bring them up a lot. Most of the time it doesn't even seem to be a comment about Geno himself that sparks discussion either. It's just...bashing because reasons.

I can't tell if that's sarcasm! I wanted to retract my statement from the quoted post because I was being way too harsh for my liking.

 

[N3ON]

If you think Geno is likely or at least possible, then you mind elaborating on what makes you think that? There's a ton of stuff seemingly pointing towards Geno's inclusion, but if all that if just "circumstantial at best", then what's the actual thing that makes you think he's likely despite the rest being "circumstantial at best" (and no, I mean besides the fan demand)?

We recently discovered an interview comment where Suda51 says "I have no comment" in regards to Travis in Smash, and that resulted in a ton of people here going crazy and saying "OH MY GOD, TRAVIS MIGHT BE IN" because it's seemingly uncharacteristic of Suda to dodge the question like that (since he's usually pretty open about whether or not Travis is in Smash, which usually means Travis isn't in)... despite that, by the logic everyone uses with evidence for Geno, this interview comment is also "circumstantial" and thus means nothing for Travis.

A character doesn't need a trail of arrows pointing at them to be included or seen as likely, all they need is to be proficient in an area that Smash values.

Geno is quite popular among the fanbase. That has proven a viable path to inclusion before. And if Geno gets in, that's why he'll have gotten in.

You don't need misread signals and specious reasoning. All you need is the popularity. And all you really have is the popularity. That and the official acknowledgements of said popularity.

 

[Deleted member]

We recently discovered an interview comment where Suda51 says "I have no comment" in regards to Travis in Smash, and that resulted in a ton of people here going crazy and saying "OH MY GOD, TRAVIS MIGHT BE IN" because it's seemingly uncharacteristic of Suda to dodge the question like that (since he's usually pretty open about whether or not Travis is in Smash, which usually means Travis isn't in)... despite that, by the logic everyone uses with evidence for Geno, this interview comment is also "circumstantial" and thus means nothing for Travis.

Okay, but why would Suda dodge the question? I would say this interview increased Travis's chances a bit. Let's not sleep on Travis Touchdown.

 

[cashregister9]

A quick addendum to this Suda51 interview from yesterday that I didn't post

Spoiler: Naughty word in the tweet

Shit, I forgot to include this with the thread:

With the Switch Player magazine comment, it's hard to say if 100% he meant Smash. He could've been talking about a Travis Touchdown amiibo, which was also part of the question.

So take things with a grain of salt.

— Will (PushDustIn) (@PushDustIn) September 21, 2020

EDIT: Lol nevermind it was already discussed

 

[N3ON]

A quick addendum to this Suda51 interview from yesterday that I didn't post

Spoiler: Naughty word in the tweet

Shit, I forgot to include this with the thread:

With the Switch Player magazine comment, it's hard to say if 100% he meant Smash. He could've been talking about a Travis Touchdown amiibo, which was also part of the question.

So take things with a grain of salt.

— Will (PushDustIn) (@PushDustIn) September 21, 2020

I gotchu covered.

I mean, the interview is in English, we don't need PushDustin's help on this one.

The amiibo part is a statement. The question pertains to Smash.

 

[TheBeastHimself]

Okay, but why would Suda dodge the question? I would say this interview increased Travis's chances a bit. Let's not sleep on Travis Touchdown.

If I may add my two cents, I think they're implying that the whole Suda interview can be considered circumstantial evidence like how many "points" in Geno's favor are considered circumstantial evidence. But I'm not AceAttorney, so I'll let them answer your question, just wanted to contribute to the conversation!

 

[cashregister9]

I gotchu covered.

Thanks for that clarification I did not see that this was already discussed

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

If you think Geno is likely or at least possible, then you mind elaborating on what makes you think that? There's a ton of stuff seemingly pointing towards Geno's inclusion, but if all that if just "circumstantial at best", then what's the actual thing that makes you think he's likely despite the rest being "circumstantial at best" (and no, I mean besides the fan demand)?

There isn't any. His fan demand is what makes him a candidate in the first place. And like all candidates, there's not really too much actual evidence in their favor, just reasons why the pick would make sense.

The way I see it, it's not a contest to see who has more going for them, but rather, a discussion to see if the reasons why they'd be picked surpass their barriers to entry. In my opinion, it probably won't for Geno, but I can't consider him to be unlikely to the point of basically being disconfirmed...yet, so I still have some hope for him.

I can't tell if that's sarcasm! I wanted to retract my statement from the quoted post because I was being way too harsh for my liking.

Erm...sorry.

But no, I'm dead serious. It's starting to seem like a pretty big problem imo, especially since not a single person here is even getting any sort of enjoyment out of these discussions (not that that would justify anything, it just makes things worse).

 

[DarthEnderX]

It basically works like a "powerup" item... but it just turns your character into Peach for a few seconds.

That's it. That's what it does.

Only it's a Peach cosplaying as the original character. Just like Kirby's Inhale.

 

[Shroob]

Only it's a Peach cosplaying as the original character. Just like Kirby's Inhale.

I'm sure someone's already done this online.

 

[TheBeastHimself]

Erm...sorry.

Oh trust me, it's all good I edited it out too late. But I appreciate that you went back and edited the quote yourself, thank you!

 

[Deleted member]

People need to learn from .

I remember many people were expecting a hard-hitting third party to make a grand conclusion for this first fighter's pass. Many were betting on Dante, and the lights were pointing to Dante.

And then, boom. Byleth is CP5. Not many saw Byleth being the final character for the first Fighters Pass.

Vergeben leaked it moments before the presentation, and only a few leakers actually predicted Byleth for CP5.

 

[Shroob]

People need to learn from .

I remember many people were expecting a hard-hitting third party to make a grand conclusion for this first fighter's pass. Many were betting on Dante, and the lights were pointing to Dante.

And then, boom. Byleth is CP5. No one saw it coming.

Vergeben leaked it moments before the presentation, and only a few leakers actually predicted Byleth for CP5.

Ehhh...


They 'were' pointing to Dante, then the big DMC news was just that the Port of 3 had that massive update.



Then KOS MOS happened, and that one video of her Ultimate Mod got copyright struck, and everyone was sure that she was in.



And then Verg's list which killed every single company and...



Geez the 5th Fighter's Pass spot during speculation was weird.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

People need to learn from .

I remember many people were expecting a hard-hitting third party to make a grand conclusion for this first fighter's pass. Many were betting on Dante, and the lights were pointing to Dante.

And then, boom. Byleth is CP5. Not many saw Byleth being the final character for the first Fighters Pass.

Vergeben leaked it moments before the presentation, and only a few leakers actually predicted Byleth for CP5.

Learn...what exactly? I don't think the current situation is the same as the one surrounding Byleth's reveal.

 

[TheBeastHimself]

Shroob Random question, but why do you put a lot of space between your paragraphs/statements? Just curious, I don't think it's a bad thing, it's unique to you, in fact. (Btw, glad someone on this site is repping M&L: PiT, the best Mario RPG...)

 

[cashregister9]

Learn...what exactly? I don't think the current situation is the same as the one surrounding Byleth's reveal.

I think what she was trying to say was that there is no "Hype quota" or any sort of precedent, Characters will appear for no particular rhyme or reason

 

[Shroob]

Shroob Random question, but why do you put a lot of space between your paragraphs/statements? Just curious, I don't think it's a bad thing, it's unique to you, in fact. (Btw, glad someone on this site is repping M&L: PiT, the best Mario RPG...)

It's just a thing.


When the words are too close together I just word salad everything, so while it's probably really obnoxious for everyone, it makes it easier for me to read/comprehend.


I'm just a 'little' different in the head, ya know?

 

[TheBeastHimself]

It's just a thing.


When the words are too close together I just word salad everything, so while it's probably really obnoxious for everyone, it makes it easier for me to read/comprehend.


I'm just a 'little' different in the head, ya know?

I hope I wasn't singling you out, I just thought it "hey, this person has a unique writing style, I wonder why?" Personally, I don't find it obnoxious, in fact it's easier for me to sift through your points instead of reading full paragraphs separated by a single space. That hurts my head sometimes.

 

[Deleted member]

Learn...what exactly? I don't think the current situation is the same as the one surrounding Byleth's reveal.

It is. People are saying Geno's chances are pretty low. A good amount of people slept on Byleth and focused on third parties during CP5.
What I am trying to say is predicting the next character is quite difficult, unless some legendary leaker comes in.

Ehhh...


They 'were' pointing to Dante, then the big DMC news was just that the Port of 3 had that massive update.



Then KOS MOS happened, and that one video of her Ultimate Mod got copyright struck, and everyone was sure that she was in.



And then Verg's list which killed every single company and...



Geez the 5th Fighter's Pass spot during speculation was weird.

This is what I mean. Most people slept on Byleth, and less people expected Byleth to be CP5, and then boom, Byleth is CP5, the final character for the first Fighters Pass.

 

[MooMew64]

If you think Geno is likely or at least possible, then you mind elaborating on what makes you think that? There's a ton of stuff seemingly pointing towards Geno's inclusion, but if all that if just "circumstantial at best", then what's the actual thing that makes you think he's likely despite the rest being "circumstantial at best" (and no, I mean besides the fan demand)?

We recently discovered an interview comment where Suda51 says "I have no comment" in regards to Travis in Smash, and that resulted in a ton of people here going crazy and saying "OH MY GOD, TRAVIS MIGHT BE IN" because it's seemingly uncharacteristic of Suda to dodge the question like that (since he's usually pretty open about whether or not Travis is in Smash, which usually means Travis isn't in)... despite that, by the logic everyone uses with evidence for Geno, this interview comment is also "circumstantial" and thus means nothing for Travis.

The Travis thing is really only indicative that he's in in some form. Could be a costume, Spirit, or playable, who knows?

I personally think he's in, but that doesn't mean anything when it comes to outright hard evidence, in fairness.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

Still boggling my mind over the notion that we still have 5 characters to go...

Wild

 

[AceAttorney9000]

A character doesn't need a trail of arrows pointing at them to be included or seen as likely, all they need is to be proficient in an area that Smash values.

Geno is quite popular among the fanbase. That has proven a viable path to inclusion before. And if Geno gets in, that's why he'll have gotten in.

You don't need misread signals and specious reasoning. All you need is the popularity. And all you really have is the popularity. That and the official acknowledgements of said popularity.

I don't disagree with that, but even if that's the case, I still see people here unironically trying to shoot that point down and saying that Geno's fan demand and popularity with the Smash fanbase isn't enough because of insert various reasons here ("He needs a game to promote!", "Other Square Enix characters are more relevant!", "Nintendo is picking the characters!", "Sakurai said he wanted Geno but could've changed his mind since!", etc.)... despite that we've already got evidence that fan demand can go a long way.

Okay, but why would Suda dodge the question? I would say this interview increased Travis's chances a bit. Let's not sleep on Travis Touchdown.

Kudos to TheBeastHimself because he essentially already said my answer...

I think they're implying that the whole Suda interview can be considered circumstantial evidence like how many "points" in Geno's favor are considered circumstantial evidence.

To elaborate, almost everyone here is so eager to shoot down anything in favor of Geno as "circumstantial" evidence that doesn't mean anything, yet when something that's just as "circumstantial" pops up in favor of Travis, the conclusion is instead that Travis might actually be playable.

For the record, I do somewhat agree that Suda51's comment is a good sign for Travis' chances (if nothing else, it could be a hint that some sort of No More Heroes content is coming to Smash), and that not everything seemingly in Geno's favor might be legit (I can understand dismissing the GameStop leak, because that one could just easily be GameStop being GameStop). I just don't understand why everything pointing to Geno gets dismissed while a similar piece of evidence for another character is given more leniency.

 

[TheBeastHimself]

Still boggling my mind over the notion that we still have 5 characters to go...

Wild

Damn, I haven't really acknowledged we have a full fighter's pass left to go.

 

[DarthEnderX]

If Geno does get in, I will be happy that the Geno debates will conclude.

The always silver lining of getting a highly requested character I don't care about is not having to listen to the requests anymore.

I don't miss hearing about Banjo, KRool and Ridley. I'd love to not hear about Geno or Sora ever again.

If you think Geno is likely or at least possible, then you mind elaborating on what makes you think that? There's a ton of stuff seemingly pointing towards Geno's inclusion, but if all that if just "circumstantial at best", then what's the actual thing that makes you think he's likely despite the rest being "circumstantial at best" (and no, I mean besides the fan demand)?

Stop sealioning people.

 

[Deleted member]

Damn, I haven't really acknowledged we have a full fighter's pass left to go.

We really are in this for the long ride...

 

[MooMew64]

Still boggling my mind over the notion that we still have 5 characters to go...

Wild

This is the natural order of Smash speculation.

Pain.

 

[Deleted member]

What if an extraterrestrial intelligent life invades Earth before we get FP7?

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I guarantee that if anyone were to go into the Geno thread right now, they can have a normal conversation just like in this thread

I got called a troll for showing up at one point. The Geno thread has a lot of good eggs, but it does a poor job of policing its bad eggs (to the point where some get hostile to moderation). It's very much like the Ridley fanbase during the Pre-Smash 4 era. A very loud, defensive, thread defining minority. That leads to a very prominent Geno Thread vs the world ideal being pushed by some and over time, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I'd like to talk about Geno in the Geno thread more. I actually think he's one of the more likely characters. But there is a darkness in the Geno thread. One that only the Geno thread can sort out. The Ridley thread did it. The K.Rool thread did it. I'm confident the Geno thread can do it too.

 

[TheBeastHimself]

View attachment 286414

This is the natural order of Smash speculation.

Pain.

Pain? I feel nothing. Try waiting for Mother 3 to get localized!

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Pain? I feel nothing. Try waiting for Mother 3 to get localized!

Things that don't exist can't hurt you.

 

[osby]

What if an extraterrestrial intelligent life invades Earth before we get FP7?

Extraterrestial intelligent life forms come to the Earth, witness the hell that is 2020 and nope the hell out of here.

 

[Deleted member]

What if I told you that I'm actually working for a secret extraterrestrial intelligent life force? How would you debunk me?

Pain? I feel nothing. Try waiting for Mother 3 to get localized!

What a MOOD.

Things that don't exist can't hurt you.

Okay, that is just mean.

;-;

 

[AceAttorney9000]

View attachment 286414

This is the natural order of Smash speculation.

Pain.

Pain? I feel nothing. Try waiting for Mother 3 to get localized!

Try waiting for Darkstalkers 4... or a proper Paper Mario game... or a new F-Zero... or a new Wario Land... or an update on Bayonetta 3...

... why no, my life isn't painful at all.

 

[TheBeastHimself]

Things that don't exist can't hurt you.

Haha, tease all you want, but I'm convinced it has to happen at some point. They won't leave that door closed forever. Right? Right...?

 

[N3ON]

I don't disagree with that, but even if that's the case, I still see people here unironically trying to shoot that point down and saying that Geno's fan demand and popularity with the Smash fanbase isn't enough because of insert various reasons here ("He needs a game to promote!", "Other Square Enix characters are more relevant!", "Nintendo is picking the characters!", "Sakurai said he wanted Geno but could've changed his mind since!", etc.)... despite that we've already got evidence that fan demand can go a long way.

Banjo, Ridley and K. Rool are not the only characters in Smash history that have been popular in the fanbase.

It is the case that popularity sometimes isn't enough. It wasn't enough for Isaac. Or, prior to the last two years, Banjo, Ridley and K. Rool.

You can't say popularity will be enough for Geno before Geno gets in. All you can say is it might be enough for Geno. I'm sure many Geno fans believe it will be enough. And then, on the other hand, you have people who believe it won't be enough. Because there's precedent of that. And there's precedent of other, bigger SE characters getting in despite Geno being more popular within the fanbase.

So the people who don't think the popularity will be enough, it's possible they'll be wrong, but they're not pulling their reasoning out of thin air here. Geno didn't just get popular. His popularity has failed to get him in before. I mean, when this game was being made, Geno was not planned to be included, despite his popularity. It was only after launch that they decided to add an additional pass.