Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[cashregister9]

I mean it's a correlation, just not causation. Besides, Geno was just one of the characters, right? So who else is "confirmed"? I'm interested.

Waluigi, Metal Sonic, Shadow

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

I’m all in on my prediction. That prediction is:

 

[SharkLord]

I mean it's a correlation, just not causation. Besides, Geno was just one of the characters, right? So who else is "confirmed"? I'm interested.

Shadow, Waluigi, and Metal Sonic, apparently. I also think that mod added a bunch of veterans and Ridley to Brawl too, among other things. It's possible Nintendo just didn't want it mooching off of Ultimate's "EVERYONE IS HERE!" shtick, assuming they didn't just shut it down because it's a mod.

EVERYTHING speaks in favor of Geno to them. No offense, but they will look into whatever is relevant and find some way to tie it into Geno in Smash.

Oh no, have we started another Geno debate?

Yes, yes we have. All (Star) Roads lead to Geno

 

[zeldasmash]

The Super Crown legit NEEDS to be in Smash.

You know not the Pandora's Box of degeneracy you shall open with that...

Though a female Ganondorf does sound very interesting to see. I love villainesses.

 

[N3ON]

View attachment 286407

I know they're better than that, c'mon man.

I mean some within the fanbase hyped themselves into thinking they were going to get something on 7/7 just because it was 7/7.

Frankly it sounds exhausting getting all riled up over and over.

 

[AceAttorney9000]

I know they're better than that, c'mon man.

Well, I used to think that this thread was better than making claims that Geno has no evidence for him and that his fans are just "grasping at straws"... but look what keeps on happening...

 

[cashregister9]

We doing Predictions now?

I have a very faint glimmer of hope for the Marsupial (Mostly because I am so damn hyped for Crash 4)

Spoiler: I put the crash dance here but I feel like I need to put a seizure warning on it

 

[Strong-Arm]

part of me finds it kinda funny how geno supporters have become sort of a meme to the entire community tho at the same time i feel bad about it lol

 

[SneakyLink]

I remember there was speculation for a time that the reason Project M was shut down was because it included Mewtwo and Roy who were going to be Smash 4 DLC at the time or something. Usually none of this correlates with anything. It’s just straw grasping.

Wasn't Project M's development concluded after both characters became DLC?

Meaning the shutdown was likely to avoid legal issues (especially due to using Non-Nintendo characters)?

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

Well, I used to think that this thread was better than making claims that Geno has no evidence for him and that his fans are just "grasping at straws"... but look what keeps on happening...

I don’t think anyone’s denying that Geno has things going for them but most of us agree that the Legacy XP doesn’t have anything to do with Geno’s chances.

Things like the Beware the Forests Mushrooms getting claimed by Nintendo is much more of a indication than cease and desist to a fan project. Especially when Nintendo hands those out like lost puppy fliers.

 

[N3ON]

I don’t think anyone’s denying that Geno has things going for them but most of us agree that the Legacy XP doesn’t have anything to do with Geno’s chances.

Things like the Beware the Forests Mushrooms getting claimed by Nintendo is much more of a indication than cease and desist to a fan project. Especially when Nintendo hands those out like lost puppy fliers.

Yeah but on the other hand BtFM is easily located on Youtube to this day. It was only removed on one channel that had a history of takedowns on it anyway. I don't think that's a particularly credible point either.

 

[AceAttorney9000]

I don’t think anyone’s denying that Geno has things going for them but most of us agree that the Legacy XP doesn’t have anything to do with Geno’s chances.

Things like the Beware the Forests Mushrooms getting claimed by Nintendo is much more of a indication than cease and desist to a fan project. Especially when Nintendo hands those out like lost puppy fliers.

It's not just Legacy XP.

I don't think I've ever seen a piece of evidence hinting at Geno get brought up in this thread and not get shot down as "circumstantial", "fake", "grasping at straws", "meaning nothing", or some other disqualifying phrase. The only thing I've seen users here concede on having any sort of merit is Geno's fan demand, and even then it's always with the caveat of "well he's still not getting in because that's just not enough".

 

[Deleted member]

Some people dig too deep on meaningless things in here.

 

[Shroob]

It's not just Legacy XP.

I don't think I've ever seen a piece of evidence hinting at Geno get brought up in this thread and not get shot down as "circumstantial", "fake", "grasping at straws", "meaning nothing", or some other disqualifying phrase. The only thing I've seen users here concede on having any sort of merit is Geno's fan demand, and even then it's always with the caveat of "well he's still not getting in because that's just not enough".

I don't think fan demand can be accurately measured, because even polls are faulty in execution.


But on the flipside, I'm also of the opinion that a lot of Geno evidence IS circumstantial evidence at best. Granted, I'm also the kind of person who doesn't believe leaks outside of two conditions:


1) It's widespread internally like Ultimate's base roster was, or the Mario collection. If a big name insider leaks a character, I'll definitely listen to them, but I'm going to need more than a single voice shouting.


2) Something completely irrefutable. ESRB leak, Ken leak, these leaks are 100% irrefutable, we know, we tried, that's how we got **** like Photoshopped Little Mac.



Stuff like random copyright strikes and cease and desists just don't really 'do' anything for me. Now, if Imran or Zhunge came out tomorrow and started saying/teasing Geno, I'd definitely start putting a lot of credentials of it happening, but I'd also wait until more came out before I went all in.

 

[SharkLord]

part of me finds it kinda funny how geno supporters have become sort of a meme to the entire community tho at the same time i feel bad about it lol

It's a Big Genoof, as I like to call it. The thread's kinda given them a bad name here because it's more or less grown into a second general thread that's the opposite of this one in many ways. Since Geno's more or less the face of the Geno thread (duh), he gets the brunt of the vitriol.

I think it's more or less the opposite mentalities regarding hype. This thread tends to shut things down pretty quickly unless there's something new coming out that relates to them, while the Geno thread is very adverse to anything that's "anti-hype" (Unless we're discussing Nintendo Directs and Nintendo's bad management, in which pessimism takes root pretty quickly). Such different mentalities pretty much ensures that the threads will clash.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I don't think I've ever seen a piece of evidence hinting at Geno get brought up in this thread and not get shot down as "circumstantial", "fake", "grasping at straws", "meaning nothing", or some other disqualifying phrase.

I only see people calling things what they are.

 

[N3ON]

It's not just Legacy XP.

I don't think I've ever seen a piece of evidence hinting at Geno get brought up in this thread and not get shot down as "circumstantial", "fake", "grasping at straws", "meaning nothing", or some other disqualifying phrase.

Well, most of it is.

It's not like this thread is the Sora or 2B or even Waluigi thread where there may be some conflict of interest in trying to downplay one character in favour of another. This thread is non-partisan, it has supporters from all camps.

The entire thread doesn't have some conspiracy to dismiss evidence for Geno simply because it's Geno. The evidence for Geno is dismissed because it's almost always extremely tenuous at best. I mean the Geno thread has a revolving door of theories that get thrown out the window on a regular basis, to be replaced with new ones.

And you'll notice it's not just this thread that dismisses the vast vast majority of Geno evidence. It's basically every place that isn't a Geno support haven. You'll see it among every non-Geno gathering on every site that discusses Smash. So is it us with some agenda to doubt the credibility of all these theories, or is it maybe the Geno fanbase who too readily tries to connect any available dot?

 

[SharkLord]

My thoughts on Geno are that he's possible, but unlikely. He's a one-off character from an old spin-off title in an endless sea of Mario, and even then he's not the real protagonist; That would be Mario himself. It's right there in the name, Super Mario RPG. In general, that would put him in a tight spot. His saving grace is his popularity, but it's hard to measure that. Still, he at least did well enough on the polls to get a Mii Costume in spite of his status, so there's definitely support. I'm personally doubtful of him, but eh. Predicting Smash is like finding a needle in a haystack, so who knows.

One thing I'd like to point out is that if he's in, he'd most likely be in the later half of the pass, perhaps even the last third. As an old spin-off one-shot, he's not exactly Mario celebration material. He's pretty much a Smash character more than a Mario character by now, so even though he'd have the same mushroom icon on the victory screen, I doubt he'd be used as part of the Mario 35th anniversary celebration. Since it would also be odd not to have the Mario character release during the celebration, he'd most likely be as far from the anniversary tournament date as possible, so when he releases it's no longer fresh in our minds.

 

[Deleted member]

If Geno does get in, I will be happy that the Geno debates will conclude.

 

[Shroob]

I'm still of the camp that Geno is very possible.


But when I look at a lot of the evidence... I mean, I just don't see it. I want to get it out in the air that, I don't hate Geno, I've NEVER hated Geno, and I like Super Mario RPG a whole lot, but I'm just not seeing it.



But as someone who's actually dealt with Insider **** in the past, color me unimpressed with a lot of the evidence. Sure, I'd love to be wrong, I'd love for Geno fans to finally feel that satisfaction of feeling vindicated for being dedicated for soo long, but a lot of the stuff I've read really is circumstantial at best.



But hey, if Imran or Zhunge, or Drake or whoever come out and start teasing around the time the next announcement gets announced, of course I'll listen, THAT will be actual evidence in his favor.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Geno has competition on both the Mario and Square Enix side.

For Mario: You have Waluigi, Toad, Pauline, King Boo etc

Square Enix: Lara Croft, Agnes/Bravely Default 2 rep, Neku, 2b etc

All of whom that non-hardcore fans are far more familiar with.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

I actually think Geno is a very real possibility for this pass but I don’t think that a lot of the evidence presented for him is really “evidence” it can be brought up as theories and that’s understandable but a lot of people are going to dismiss that just as much as people dismissed any other theory. Like, theories are always brought up that a character might get revealed to coincide with a game and those are always immediately shut down too.

 

[Playstation Guy 1000]

Geno has competition on both the Mario and Square Enix side.

For Mario: You have Waluigi, Toad, Pauline, King Boo etc

Square Enix: Lara Croft, Agnes/Bravely Default 2 rep, Neku, 2b etc

All of whom that non-hardcore fans are far more familiar with.

that's actually the one major thing that's holding geno back: Competition.

 

[Shroob]

that's actually the one major thing that's holding geno back: Competition.

I have to disagree to be honest.


I mean, we got Banjo over the likes of Master Chief and Steve Minecraft.



People keep acting like this is some extraneous survival of the fittest when it's just "DLC machine go brrrrrrr".

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Things going against Geno:

• Competition from 1st and 3rd parties alike; all of which more relevant than him.
• One-off character that isn't the protagonist; The only characters with this description that have actually got in are characters from series that only have one game, and said game has no story.
• Potential rights issues with SquareEnix.
• Nintendo's current policies in regards to original characters they didn't make.
• The fact that he's a Super Mario character, and we just had a Super Mario 35th Anniversary presentation in which a character wasn't even hinted at.

Things going for Geno:

• He's currently incredibly popular among a subset of the core fanbase; A really small amount of people all things considered.

Who will win?

The massive amount of odds against him?

Or one kinda popular wooden boi?

 

[Deleted member]

I am pretty surprised Geno has such a massive fanbase in the first place, considering Mario RPG isn't as well known.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I am pretty surprised Geno has such a massive fanbase in the first place, considering Mario RPG isn't as well known.

It's possible that it was much more well known when it came out. Besides, this is a community that knows just about everything there is to know about R.O.B. It shouldn't be too surprising. lol

 

[cashregister9]

Semi-conspiracy.

I think a lot of Geno supporters heard that Sakurai mentioned that he wanted Geno in brawl and a lot of them think "Geno will make Sakurai happy" so the people who actually played SMRPG are there with the people who just want to join the hype thus being judged as a whole, there is nothing inherently wrong with bandwagoning just don't be mean about it.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Night y'all. Here's to a Sakurai presents announcement tomorrow at 10 in the morning.

Doubting it tho...Still suspecting next week.

 

[Shroob]

Night y'all. Here's to a reveal tomorrow at 10 in the morning.

Doubting it tho...

Isn't it still a holiday in Japan? Thought Monday and Tuesday were gonna be written off due to it.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Isn't it still a holiday in Japan? Thought Monday and Tuesday were gonna be written off due to it.

Isn't Japan a day ahead though? It should be Wednesday there now.

 

[Shroob]

Isn't Japan a day ahead though? It should be Wednesday there now.

At the moment, it's about Noon Japan time Tuesday, so **** all I'm bad at time.

 

[StrangeKitten]

I mean, yeah a lot of the "evidence" is flimsy but wouldn't the fanbases for most characters look into things that might suggest their character coming? Geno certainly has a lot going for him in that regard, and I think all us Geno fans are aware that it could end up leading to nothing. The fact that most of it isn't big enough to hint at him strongly, but just enough to make you think "hmm..." is both frustrating and intriguing.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

pic.twitter.com/L2zwJuEBY6

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) September 22, 2020

today's POTD

 

[SneakyLink]

pic.twitter.com/L2zwJuEBY6

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) September 22, 2020

today's POTD

New idea for a character: Captain Falcon with a whip!

Complete with Belmont holding the whip.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

today's POTD

Simon's whip failed to go any further beyond.

 

[Shroob]

I mean, yeah a lot of the "evidence" is flimsy but wouldn't the fanbases for most characters look into things that might suggest their character coming? Geno certainly has a lot going for him that regard, and I think all us Geno fans are aware that it could end up leading to nothing. The fact that most of it isn't big enough to hint at him strongly, but just enough to make you think "hmm..." is both frustrating and intriguing.

I feel like the issue is when people take that circumstantial evidence and rush it as facts.



It's always the ones with the loudest voice that stands out. I don't think the Geno fanbase is bad, hell, I think it gets a bad rap a lot of the time, but I just won't go there because it's full of people who take every breadcrumb as hard evidence(Granted, I don't go to any specific character thread in general). Around July it got REALLY messy with the Gamespot leak and how everyone was 100% sure this was it.

 

[TheBeastHimself]

I do feel bad because Geno fans are generalized and usually described as this insane group who contributes nothing but a perpetual circle-jerk for their character. These are people we're talking about, not some radical sub-group. I have a lot of friends in the Geno thread and I feel like their names get dragged through the mud anytime a hasty Geno fan does something ridiculous.

I guarantee that if anyone were to go into the Geno thread right now, they can have a normal conversation just like in this thread. You're not entering an alternate dimension where you'll be driven insane as much as this thread loves to preach that that's the case.

Admittedly, yeah, there are lots of people in there who hype themselves up at the littlest of "hints" or grasp at any available straws that imply Geno in Smash. But that's what every character support thread would do! You know, look for any signs that could indicate their favorite character joining Smash and speculate based off of it. It's nothing crazy. I've seen plenty of other support threads believe breadcrumbs to be evidence.

They're in their own thread, their own bubble, let them do whatever they want over there. It's you guys who keep bringing up Geno in the first place every other day.

 

[MooMew64]

Like Shroob , I definitely don't hate Geno. TBH, I'm pretty neutral on him: If he gets in, I'll be happy for those who have been dreaming of it for so long, but it won't really do much for me personally outside of getting some rockin' tunes. If he doesn't? Well, then alright.

I'm also in the camp that most of the evidence used for Geno is pretty circumstantial and based off of unfortunate echo chambering that character threads tend to cause. Legacy XP, the Gamestop leak, Jeff Grub and Andre's funposts, a lot of it is circumstantial at best IMHO and not really hard evidence. I dunno, I'm just...not convinced these things mean anything or that they lock him in. But hey, if you do, more power to ya; I hope for his fanbase's sake that it all does pay off in the end.

 

[StrangeKitten]

They're in their own thread, their own bubble, let them do whatever they want over there. It's you guys who keep bringing up Geno in the first place every other day.

I know right? I'm one of the thread's frequenters and have almost never brought Geno up here unless others brought him up first. And like, there's nothing wrong with people bringing him up here as a character they don't really want, it's just that it tends to result in a ton of discussion on a character most people here aren't thrilled with. And that it happens so often, lol.

We should probably talk about some different characters at this point. I think the issue is, the news well is pretty dry, and we've already discussed our most wanteds here to death.