Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Idon]

Spoiler: off-topic

Wait, that's the fourth path? I thought it was a dumb (because it seems extremely forced) optional refusal of the call kind of deal.

Well for one, it's the only option if you don't meet the requirements and for two, it's natural that some of course, some people won't vibe well with the evil masked man who worked with the death cult asking you to join her.

promotional pick =/= bad pick

risky pick perhaps, but if the game getting promoted in question does end up being incredibly successful, well-received and beloved, and the smash character ends up with a fun moveset and brings some good content with them, then the risk pays off and you get a good pick like with

And then you have which turned out...not as well...

For what it's worth, Corrin's moveset IS unique, fun, and wholeheartedly faithful to its source material, in spite of his early adoption.
Of course, the caveat is I hate him, but I also hate Roy who fulfills the same criteria and he doesn't get nearly the same amount of hate from the Smash community

At the end of the day people's feelings are fickle and I feel that Corrin and Byleth's hate is based more on principle than on whether one is superior over another. It's very easy to say "EIGHT FIRE EMBLEM CHARACTERS!?" rather than rate each of them individually.

For a comparison, Smash fans won't care that Ike's games sold terribly, its second had mixed reception due to its extreme changes in the formula, and that Nintendo doesn't even care to port it to current consoles despite its severe scarcity, and the moveset relies more on his archetype than his source material. Ike was early, Ike was awesome, and they liked him. I can't imagine introducing someone like him today. Not to say his was a bad inclusion mind you, just take a look at my mains.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Well for one, it's the only option if you don't meet the requirements and for two, it's natural that some of course, some people won't vibe well with the evil masked man who worked with the death cult asking you to join her.

This gives me both more insight and more questions. As for why I said what I did, here was my experience with the time skip:

Spoiler: Timeskip spoilers for the Golden Deer route of Fire Emblem: Three Houses

So basically we get ROFLstomped by Edelgard and her crew pre-timeskip, and then post-timeskip Claude is telling me how she's taking over the world, and how he's got a plan to stop her. Why on Earth would my response be "nah, I'm gonna go find Rea now" instead of trying to save the world (especially when the game has not so subtly been implying how Rea and the church are actually evil)?

 

[Idon]

Spoiler: Off-topic; Fire Emblem Three Houses Spoilers

This gives me both more insight and more questions. As for why I said what I did, here was my experience with the time skip:

Spoiler: Timeskip spoilers for the Golden Deer route of Fire Emblem: Three Houses

So basically we get ROFLstomped by Edelgard and her crew pre-timeskip, and then post-timeskip Claude is telling me how she's taking over the world, and how he's got a plan to stop her. Why on Earth would my response be "nah, I'm gonna go find Rea now" instead of trying to save the world (especially when the game has not so subtly been implying how Rea and the church are actually evil)?

Oh no I misunderstood you.

No, even if you say you want to chase after Rhea in Claude's route, that isn't an option that makes you go over to Rhea's side.

To go on the "Rhea" route (which is a bit of a misnomer in itself), you must be part of Edelgard's class. Once she is revealed to be the Flame Emperor, you can either join her conquest of the continent or reject her request to join you. Joining her lets you go on Edelgard's story while rejecting her leaves you without any lord, but with more insight on Rhea's backstory, though she is barely present as well.

 

[Deleted member]

Spoiler: Three Houses Spoilers

I think what makes joining Crimson Flower so impactful is even if she is portrayed as a villain in-game, you get to join and bond with her. It makes you feel quite dedicated to your house leader, as you're sacrificing being a powerful figure in the church for her. It feels quite different compared to the other routes. Crimson Flower is amazing, I just wish it was a bit longer.

I'm back to discussing Three Houses, oh boy... To be fair, I did start the conversation when I asked about Byleth.

 

[PSIGuy]

promotional pick =/= bad pick

risky pick perhaps, but if the game getting promoted in question does end up being incredibly successful, well-received and beloved, and the smash character ends up with a fun moveset and brings some good content with them, then the risk pays off and you get a good pick like with

And then you have which turned out...not as well...

FE isn't a risky pick, literally every game since Awakening has sold well. It's just a cynical marketing tactic to push something that's already going to do well so it does weller, meanwhile new interesting things that could use the promotion get left to die.

god since we all love fire emblem so much why don't we start doing Low Turn Count runs of this conversation and see if we can end them in two posts when they come up.

Change of subject: is anyone else not really prepared for the outcome of a partner direct having something good, because SMT3HD and V caught me totally off guard like a deer in headlights

 

[Super Devon]

Y'know, Vergeben has been on my mind as of lately
many would assume that he stopped leaking things due to life reasons, but I don't think that has ever meant anything
as he has leaked.... or hinted towards to be more specific, the past two live-streamed Nintendo presentations: the Min Min reveal and the Pokemon Unite reveal (I don't know if that counts but I guess). The thing is though, he posted these hints 30-40 minutes before the presentation began, so it kinda went under the radar by many I would assume.
I don't think this is too relevant but I just wanted to point that out

 

[Shroob]

Y'know, Vergeben has been on my mind as of lately
many would assume that he stopped leaking things due to life reasons, but I don't think that has ever meant anything
as he has leaked.... or hinted towards to be more specific, the past two live-streamed Nintendo presentations: the Min Min reveal and the Pokemon Unite reveal (I don't know if that counts but I guess). The thing is though, he posted these hints 30-40 minutes before the presentation began, so it kinda went under the radar by many I would assume.
I don't think this is too relevant but I just wanted to point that out

Sounds more like someone's getting the video early and telling him the contents.


Considering he leaked the Byleth presentation mere moments before it came out, and it still goes pretty under the radar all things considered, it seems like he has a source that may have access to the Youtube side of Nintendo's account.

 

[GoodGrief741]

We don't need another pointless Fire Emblem discussion. I especially don't need another pointless Fire Emblem discussion, I finished my second run of it tonight and I'd hate to have what's left of it spoiled for me.

Just go to bed, Monster Hunter tomorrow.

 

[Staarih]

So Zhuge is telling us to "rise" early for the partner showcase and apparently some other "credible" (?) person says the supposed new MonHun is called Monster Hunter Rise, posted before Zhuge's tweet. Luckily we'll know soon enough if MonHun will indeed appear today.

Anyway, cool to get more info and I just hope news will keep on coming and culminate to FP7 reveal sooner than later.

 

[Shroob]

So Zhuge is telling us to "rise" early for the partner showcase and apparently some other "credible" (?) person says the supposed new MonHun is called Monster Hunter Rise, posted before Zhuge's tweet. Luckily we'll know soon enough if MonHun will indeed appear today.

Anyway, cool to get more info and I just hope news will keep on coming and culminate to FP7 reveal sooner than later.

If Zhunge's saying it, then that's probably as close to confirmed as you can get.

Considering that press-release **** is probably going out around this time, if not a few hours earlier, it's very likely that

 

[ZelDan]

FE isn't a risky pick, literally every game since Awakening has sold well. It's just a cynical marketing tactic to push something that's already going to do well so it does weller, meanwhile new interesting things that could use the promotion get left to die.

god since we all love fire emblem so much why don't we start doing Low Turn Count runs of this conversation and see if we can end them in two posts when they come up.

Change of subject: is anyone else not really prepared for the outcome of a partner direct having something good, because SMT3HD and V caught me totally off guard like a deer in headlights

I wasn't really talking about risky from a business sense but moreso risky from a, well, "is the character a good fit or positive addition for Smash" sense, is how I'll put it for lack of better words.

Like, yeah just putting in Byleth in Smash before they even knew if his game would be well received or if the positive feedback would far outweigh the negative feedback is kinda an iffy move. Had things not gone as well for Three houses as they did, Byleth would have been seen as more of a blunder to those outside the "FE bad!" circle and would not have been considered a great way to represent FE like a good chunk of people feel about Corrin.

perhaps "risky" wasn't even the word I should have used in the first place, but whatever the case I was mostly just trying to say that a character being promotional doesn't make them a bad character or that whatever content they bring is bad. I used Byleth since i lied their inclusion and the TH content.

 

[DarthEnderX]

I've seen plenty call Byleth and Min Min shill picks.

Byleth was totally a shill pick. Min Min isn't though. That game's been out for years.

Pretty much any character that was decided before they could realistically determine whether anyone actually cares about that character or not can be assumed to have been chosen for promotional purposes.

Yeah, Byleth was released months after Three Houses, but they were CHOSEN before the game was even out yet.

 

[3BitSaurus]

I know it's supposed to be a crown, but like


All I see is a massive tumor growing on its head.

Crown Tundra? Nah, Crown Tumor.

 

[Mamboo07]

This is awfully shoddy logic, but since it brings me what I want, I have to say, no more reasonable conclusion has ever been made in the history of speculation. Good job my good sir.


Ugh, don't get me started on the current viable starter picks.

You mean the soccer rabbit furry, big funny gorilla and James Bond lizard?

 

[Dinoman96]

For a comparison, Smash fans won't care that Ike's games sold terribly, its second had mixed reception due to its extreme changes in the formula, and that Nintendo doesn't even care to port it to current consoles despite its severe scarcity, and the moveset relies more on his archetype than his source material. Ike was early, Ike was awesome, and they liked him. I can't imagine introducing someone like him today. Not to say his was a bad inclusion mind you, just take a look at my mains.

Yeah, that was back when Fire Emblem characters were still a novel concept and also didn't have a huge amount of characters like it does today, with only two each in Melee and Brawl.

I recall people starting to get annoyed with FE once it had gotten bumped up to four characters with the inclusion of Robin and Lucina, but I think putting both Roy and Corrin in the same DLC cycle was the one two punch that forever killed FE in the eyes of Smash fans.

 

[Mamboo07]

Yeah, that was back when Fire Emblem characters were still a novel concept and also didn't have a huge amount of characters like it does today, with only two each in Melee and Brawl.

I recall people starting to get annoyed with FE once it had gotten pumped up to four characters with the inclusion of Robin and Lucina, but I think putting both Roy and Corrin in the same DLC cycle was the one two punch that forever killed FE in the eyes of Smash fans.

Yup, I remember we went from 2 FE reps to 8 so quickly while Kirby and Zelda haven't got a newcomer since Brawl.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

The only way wouldn’t have caught much flack is if, hypothetically speaking, FE didn’t get a newcomer after and there were only 4 FE characters in the base roster. In this particular scenario, whether or not he was a “shill pick” or not wouldn’t have been seen as a big deal.

Honestly, people use the word "shill" for just about any first-party character who debuted or stars in a relatively new game. I've seen plenty call Byleth and Min Min shill picks. I have no doubt that if a Champion, Octoling, Rex, an Astral Chain rep, Ring Fit Trainer, a SwSh rep, Paper Mario, or some other character from a Switch game were announced as F7, the people who didn't like that character would be quick to undermine their inclusion by pointing out that they were just another shill pick

"Shill" is another way of saying "relatively new character who I believe didn't deserve to get in."

Considering Paper Mario has been around since 2000 and has always enjoyed a significant amount of fan-request, very few people would consider him a “shill pick”

Smash is basically a giant advertisement

Everyone's a "shill-pick" once you really think about it

What the heck does promote?

 

[Shroob]

The only way wouldn’t have caught much flack is if, hypothetically speaking, FE didn’t get a newcomer after and there were only 4 FE characters in the base roster. In this particular scenario, whether or not he was a “shill pick” or not wouldn’t have been seen as a big deal.




Considering Paper Mario has been around since 2000 and has always enjoyed a significant amount of fan-request, very few people would consider him a “shill pick”



What the heck does promote?

As much as I hate to say this, if his moveset forsook the classic games and focused more on the Sticker Star/Color Splash era, people absolutely would out of a burning hatred for those two games, let's not kid ourselves.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Yeah, that was back when Fire Emblem characters were still a novel concept and also didn't have a huge amount of characters like it does today, with only two each in Melee and Brawl.

I recall people starting to get annoyed with FE once it had gotten bumped up to four characters with the inclusion of Robin and Lucina, but I think putting both Roy and Corrin in the same DLC cycle was the one two punch that forever killed FE in the eyes of Smash fans.

Ike also had the distinction of being one of the only FE characters to star in more than one game (the other being Marth) which in the context of FE’s revolving cast of characters made him seem especially significant to the series and Path of Radiance is especially well-regarded within the Fire Emblem fanbase. And as you stated, the lack of Fire Emblem helped stand out more in Brawl.

 

[PSIGuy]

Revisiting this thought...

I wonder if the fact Nintendo just had a meeting today will have anything to do with this direct. A big third party release that'll make investors happy that they may have mentioned during the meeting, perhaps?

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2020/200916e.pdf

The last slide of the investor's meeting mentions the mini direct explicitly. So there's a good chance there's something that'll make stockholders cheer.

Will it make -us- cheer? I dunno. I think there's a lot of popular games most 'core' gamers wouldn't give two flicks about. Still. More evidence it'll be worth watching live (if only to vent with everyone else over Shadow Raid Legends or Flavor Month Royale #5 getting revealed).

 

[Shroob]

Revisiting this thought...

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2020/200916e.pdf

The last slide of the investor's meeting mentions the mini direct explicitly. So there's a good chance there's something that'll make stockholders cheer.

Will it make -us- cheer? I dunno. I think there's a lot of popular games most 'core' gamers wouldn't give two flicks about. Still. More evidence it'll be worth watching live (if only to vent with everyone else over Shadow Raid Legends or Flavor Month Royale #5 getting revealed).

I mean, Monster Hunter, which seems like 99% a lock if Zhunge's tweet is indeed a tease, is a system seller on its own.


Considering that the Switch has still been having record breaking sales all this time later, Monster Hunter would push that over the edge significantly.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

I mean, Monster Hunter, which seems like 99% a lock if Zhunge's tweet is indeed a tease, is a system seller on its own.


Considering that the Switch has still been having record breaking sales all this time later, Monster Hunter would push that over the edge significantly.

Yeah, especially if they do a special edition Switch to go along with it.

 

[SpectreJordan]

Yeah, I think Monster Hunter will be the showstopper here. If we’re lucky maaaaybe they’ll announce a Smash presentation/Direct for next week.

I think there’s a chance that the next time we see Smash that it could be a Smash Direct where 7 is revealed & Presented alongside some additional content coming to the game, then capped off with the trailer for 8 who’s out in January.

 

[Deleted member]

I think there’s a chance that the next time we see Smash that it could be a Smash Direct where 7 is revealed & Presented alongside some additional content coming to the game, then capped off with the trailer for 8 who’s out in January.

I doubt this. The fact that Min Min was the only character that had a trailer and a release date for this year, I do not think we are going to get two character reveals. It is probably going to be very stretched out in terms of reveals. It could likely finish in 2022.

 

[zumaddy]

Man I hope those MH Switch rumours are true, while I did quite enjoy Iceborne I have a hankering for the old type of game too and splitting the World style/Portable style games up would be a good compromise.

 

[Deleted member]

Man I hope those MH Switch rumours are true, while I did quite enjoy Iceborne I have a hankering for the old type of game too and splitting the World style/Portable style games up would be a good compromise.

You can rest easy, they seem guaranteed, due to how many prominent leakers are backing Monster Hunter for the Switch.

 

[Deleted member]

I know it's supposed to be a crown, but like


All I see is a massive tumor growing on its head.

It's a plant bulb since he's part Grass.

Spoiler

Apparently, one of the rumors for it is that two of the still-unannounced Legends coming with Crown Tundra can fuse with it and the bulb will Flower depending on which you fused with. Details are still sketchy on what further impact the fusion will have though. Some rumors state that it will turn Calyrex into our first Centaur-based Pokemon.

I doubt this. The fact that Min Min was the only character that had a trailer and a release date for this year, I do not think we are going to get two character reveals. It is probably going to be very stretched out in terms of reveals. It could likely finish in 2022.

Same. At this point, its abundantly clear that COVID had a severe impact on the release schedule. Further, the drip-feed of information we've been getting on all things Nintendo should have made it clear that they're playing things cautiously; they don't want to announce something too early or provide a release window that they're not 100% certain they'll meet now that things have been affected negatively. If & when we get a trailer for Fighter 7, it'll be the fighter alone. Don't expect even a hint of the next.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Man I'm seeing this shill pick discussion and nobody seems to remember how people said Cloud and Joker were shill picks and ****

 

[Deleted member]

I have a question about Fire Emblem. Why does Nintendo love putting a lot of Fire Emblem characters in Smash, even if it is succesful already? I am not complaining, just curious.

Man I'm seeing this shill pick discussion and nobody seems to remember how people said Cloud and Joker were shill picks and ****

How were they shill picks, ma'am?

Edit: I am probably blocked. ;-;

 

[Deleted member]

Man I'm seeing this shill pick discussion and nobody seems to remember how people said Cloud and Joker were shill picks and ****

They were just massively Salty. Whether you love or hate 7 (only those who think it was overhyped hate it), Cloud represented a leap in RPGs and vaulted Square to being a household name. He has a legacy whether he came from the best FF or not; he was not a shill pick in the least. And Joker, well, Sakurai loved Persona 5 to the point that he admittedly designed the UI of Ultimate around Persona 5's. Dude liked the game and thought others would enjoy the pick; nothing more lol.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Man I'm seeing this shill pick discussion and nobody seems to remember how people said Cloud and Joker were shill picks and ****

Well in fairness to the latter character, there was a somewhat logical assumption by a lot of fans to calling Joker a promotional pick at the time:

"Ah this makes sense, Sakurai likes Joker, & with him being in Smash there's obviously no way Atlus is going to pass up the chance to put Persona 5 on Switch."

Spoiler

 

[Cutie Gwen]

They were just massively Salty. Whether you love or hate 7 (only those who think it was overhyped hate it), Cloud represented a leap in RPGs and vaulted Square to being a household name. He has a legacy whether he came from the best FF or not; he was not a shill pick in the least. And Joker, well, Sakurai loved Persona 5 to the point that he admittedly designed the UI of Ultimate around Persona 5's. Dude liked the game and thought others would enjoy the pick; nothing more lol.

Nah I've seen a surprising amount of people say Cloud was added to shill 7R (lmao) and Joker was to shill Q2, P5R or a Switch port. Hell, saw someone say it like 3 months ago too while saying Terry's shilling KoFXV. Just thought it was funny nobody else seemed to remember that when people were talking about the term shull pick

 

[osby]

I think the term "shill pick" kinda lost its meaning when people started using it for any character that appeared on the last console generation.

It's more often than not used by people who want to write off the merits of any newcomer they dislike than an actual criticism, anyway.

 

[Deleted member]

Do you think Persona 5 for the Switch could happen in this presentation?

 

[Garteam]

I think people misunderstand the rational behind and 's inclusion.

The idea wasn't just to add a character solely for the purposes of milking sales of their game. Instead, Sakurai has stated that he wanted to add a character from a release that occurred between the game's launch and the end of the DLC period. It's not only about striking while the iron's hot, but also giving a character an opportunity to join the battle when they otherwise wouldn't have one.

Besides, even if we do as the fanbase often assumes Nintendo does and use Smash as a giant billboard, is Fire Emblem really the most logical series to promote? Fire Emblem Fates may've been somewhat of a risk relative to releasing a new Mario or Zelda game, but it was still a follow-up to the series' most successful entry. Similarly, Fire Emblem was on a hot streak of three entries that performed well beyond expectations and an incredibly successful mobile game by 2019, Three Houses was going to do fine. Wouldn't it have made more sense to promote Splatoon or Code Name S.T.E.A.M and Astral Chain or Ring Fit Adventure in those spots instead? Those were all new IPs that didn't have anywhere close to the brand recognition that Fire Emblem had, therefore being much riskier ventures. If promotion was really all that mattered, why not promote products that had a greater need for the spotlight?

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Do you think Persona 5 for the Switch could happen in this presentation?

If that does happen (which I have no expectation of at this point) it'll happen some time after SMT V's release. Even with their differences to Persona it makes more sense to give it and Nocturne some time to breath for while before getting attention via a P5 announcement.

 

[I.D.]

It's not only about striking while the iron's hot, but also giving a character an opportunity to join the battle when they otherwise wouldn't have one.

I like the low key shade here implying Corrin and Byleth would never be able to make it without cross promotion

 

[Garteam]

I like the low key shade here implying Corrin and Byleth would never be able to make it without cross promotion

By this being their only chance to join the battle, I don't mean that Corrin and Byleth could never join without cross promotion. These were instead Corrin and Byleth's only chances to get into Smash because of Fire Emblem's revolving cast. Just like with Pokemon, who's relevant enough to be considered a main player in Fire Emblem is constantly changing as new characters get introduced and replace old ones. It would be tough to justify including a Fates character for Smash in 2018 and it'll likely be difficult justifying a Three House character for Smash in 2022.

 

[Deleted member]

If that does happen (which I have no expectation of at this point) it'll happen some time after SMT V's release. Even with their differences to Persona it makes more sense to give it and Nocturne some time to breath for while before getting attention via a P5 announcement.

I kinda hope it doesnt. I love Persona 5. I bought the Steelbook version for Ps4 before it exploded in popularity (Target just had extra copies of the Steelbook version for purchase), then I got the Steelbook for P5 Royal, and now I'll apparently be getting a digital copy for having Playstation Plus when I get a PS5. Please nintendo, I don't want another copy, but I'll be compelled to get it! You're becoming Skyrim; don't do it!

 

[Guynamednelson]

It would be tough to justify including a Fates character for Smash in 2018

Not because it isn't relevant, but because we would already know about all the controversy by then.