Noticed I got some responses to the "would speculation actually change"? I find that I agree with some points on how speculation could be different after Challenger Pack 7.
One thing I think it overrated right now is the idea that "Joker set the tone for Volume 1, so Min Min OR Pick 7 will set the tone for Volume 2". While I think it's an argument based on "Joker is a 3rd party, many additional picks were 3rd party, therefore that's what was meant", I don't know if that's necessarily the right way to look at it. All DLC has done something in terms of expanding the crossover, but it also focused on new and interesting gameplay ideas.
It's sort of a mix like that, I would say, not just strictly if they're owned by Nintendo or not. Min Min continued the "unique gameplay" additions that Sakurai reflected on at the end of the Byleht presentation, so I think this may be more of an extension of what Volume 1 gave us.
This largely pushes toward an "equal playing field" approach between 1st and 3rd parties. That said, I don't think there necessarily needs to be a whole argument between 1st and 3rd parties. It's a matter of, how are the fighter passes constructed, what are the contexts to their decision-making process, how do other Nintendo decisions factor into these choices, etc...
Based on how DLC choices have been going since Wii U/3DS, it seems like characters from games considered "dead" are probably not looking great now (Golden Sun, Chibi-Robo, etc), it largely seems like 1st party picks are promotional in nature (Min Min is slightly different as her game is a few years old, but Nintendo definitely appeared to be making a second wind push for the game itself with various ARMS tourneys online. 3rd parties also fit the "thematic" nature of the Challenger Packs pretty well, as do particular 1st parties over others.
In terms of what I think Challenger Pack 7 could change? Well:
1) If we aren't getting another pick until 2021, it seems like it's entirely possible Challenger Pack 7 is make or break for a Mario character. Waluigi is also seen as essentially the Assist Trophy upgrade pick, so one would think that if it is going to happen, it would happen with the tournament that seems to highlight all Mario characters, stages, and items. Adding in additional Mario content after this exclamation of "all the Mario stuff!" seems a bit strange. We also can't forget that Nintendo obviously planned the festivities for Mario's 35th anniversary, including the tournament. If you were adding a Mario character as DLC, wouldn't the best celebration of "all the Mario characters" be...with all the Mario characters in Smash? While I wouldn't entirely 100% bet against a Mario character, the circumstances really seem, in my opinion, to make Challenger Pack 7 a high tension time for Waluigi or Geno. Either one is a megaton disconfirmation imho.
To be fair, either of them not showing up isn't really a disconfirmation. It's just more like a "soft" disconfirmation, and even that's a bit generous. I think the question is just, "If Nintendo has a major role in deciding these things, why would they not reveal the Mario DLC when the 35th anniversary was specifically crossing over into Smash with a big event?"
2) Mii Costumes. The discussion earlier with Monster Hunter seems like a key part of this, as well as Lloyd Irving and Geno. Each of these is a pretty decently large candidate for playable status, and any of them could be shot down in a given presentation.
I don't really know what else would rock the boat of speculation, but I think just even having the hype of a reveal would be nice at this point.
At the end of the day, despite wanting Dante, 2B, Lloyd, Crash, Travis, and a multitude of other characters, I'll probably be just fine with anybody because I've honestly yet to be disappointed with the way the characters play.
