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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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ROBnWatch

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When I saw the Mother 30th Anniversary Spirit event banner, I noticed that the Absolutely Safe Capsule spirit isn't there. Hmm... suspicious.
All Spirits are on that banner from the EarthBound series, minus Fighter Spirits (Ness and Lucas), summonable Spirits (Flying Man, Mr. Saturn, Ultimate Chimera, Absolutely Safe Capsule), and Spirits that are unlocked after a challenge is met (Masked Man).

Edit: Not trying to make an argument in favor of or against anything, just stating an observation.
 
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Ornl

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They are not going to intentionally lead a character's fans on only to crush their hopes.
If it's done in a subtle way, like this simple "oversight", nothing could be blamed on Nintendo. The idea would be to divert attention through the community's interpretation: "Let's look to Capcom", "Let's look to Bamco", "Let's look to Porky"... Thus, the new Fighters would really be "never saw it coming".
 

ROBnWatch

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If it's done in a subtle way, like this simple "oversight", nothing could be blamed on Nintendo. The idea would be to divert attention through the community's interpretation: "Let's look to Capcom", "Let's look to Bamco", "Let's look to Porky"... Thus, the new Fighters would really be "never saw it coming".
To be fair, we only have one data point to go off of for Costume Theory. All I’m saying is, until there’s an identifiable trend (say, Hero releases with Square Enix costumes...) I wouldn’t buy into it just yet.
 

OrpheusTelos

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Resident Evil fans: about the Spirits that could come with a potential character... which ones do you think are possible? I don't know much about the series, as you said before, so what B.O.W.s could appear with RE content?
Ignoring any potential newcomers (Jill, Leon, Chris, and maybe Claire as a Leon/ensemble RE character alt): Rebecca Chambers, Wesker, Barry Burton, Ada Wong, Ashley Graham, Nemesis, and Mr. X would be the obvious choices for spirits. Resident Evil has no shortage of memorable characters so I doubt Sakurai would be hard pressed to find potential spirits
 

TheCJBrine

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If it's done in a subtle way, like this simple "oversight", nothing could be blamed on Nintendo. The idea would be to divert attention through the community's interpretation: "Let's look to Capcom", "Let's look to Bamco", "Let's look to Porky"... Thus, the new Fighters would really be "never saw it coming".
We'd be grasping at straws to assume they're doing so. They have no reason to do this when the characters would be surprising anyway, since nobody would know who they were unless a leaker with an amazing track record says something; what the fans interpret from images is nothing of their concern, when the images could've just been seemingly strange choices for promotion or making a reference to please fans...or just odd decisions that unintentionally bother fans. They have no reason to create false expectations for anyone other than potential leakers, but they only do that internally, i.e. when they had Xander Mobus announce Rayman's name among others that ended up not being playable in Smash 4 (which wasn't public knowledge until Xander said it on a stream).

It's much easier to assume they're doing what they normally do; make seemingly strange choices sometimes, and try to make fans happy with little references while falling a bit short in some cases. Creating false expectations for their fans is a stupid tactic and there's no way they're gonna intentionally cause their fans to think one character is coming when they're not.
 
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DarthEnderX

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Lara Croft is without question bigger than Spyro.

With Crash, it's much closer though.
I think the one thing Spyro has going for him over Crash is that Spyro more or less kicked off the entire Toys-to-life genre. A genre in which Smash Bros. is heavily invested.
 

ROBnWatch

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Also, and to my own dismay, I did find that the reskinned zombie is from a scene depicted in the background of the Magicant stage. Meaning the only thing previously unseen in that banner art are the sunflowers.

Sigh...
 

Izanagi97

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This was posted in the social thread so I figured I should share it here since it might have an implication on when Hero might get released. For those who are unaware, August 4 is the date of Evo.
https://twitter.com/PushDustIn/status/1153951991703494656/photo/1
I saw this on Reddit (Link here, might want to use Ceddit to see the content of the removed post), top post there came from a native Japanese speaker who said that this does not confirm the Hero's release date and that the date on the top right says "take poster off by August 4th." Several other top comments in the same reddit thread mention that the August 4th thing is in relation to the Ad (and some lambasting reddit poster for being misleading about the tweet for Karma)

In my opinion, it either means that A. the Hero will release before that date (I'm still leaning on the July release) or B. They will have an updated ad by then
 
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Nquoid

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If it's done in a subtle way, like this simple "oversight", nothing could be blamed on Nintendo. The idea would be to divert attention through the community's interpretation: "Let's look to Capcom", "Let's look to Bamco", "Let's look to Porky"... Thus, the new Fighters would really be "never saw it coming".
No fighter would be surprising by that criteria. Costume theory is literally something that has been made up and is far from confirmed, and I doubt anyone involved in the game thought this hard about it. If we exclude every single character that has appeared prominently in speculation then what we are left with is an actual bunch of 'literal who's,' and not in the way that people like to throw around for characters that are from franchises they just haven't played.
 

GoodGrief741

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(Not having upgraded the Mii Costumes of Tales and Tekken from Sm4sh into the Ultimate basic game could be akin to a disconfirmation. Because there have already been many upgrades in the basic game (Inkling, Daisy, Chrom, Isabelle and K. Rool) and because Tales and Tekken wouldn't really be "new to the series".)

"New to the series" means that third-party Mii Costumes had no chance in DLC. Like Akira, Knuckles, Rathalos and Zero who became Assist Trophies in the basic game.



The proof is the official statement "New to the series". Tales and Tekken are already therefore disconfirmed. The rest of the shared clues help to understand the reason for it, for example to determine if a motivation to reject Tekken can apply to reject SNK.

Sakurai has been in perfect alignment with the 2017 polls placing Persona 5 in first place. The influence can then be direct or indirect, conscious or unconscious, but the parallel remains. I can provide evidence that a poll in any way can affect Sakurai's decisions. This official proof is Bayonetta from ballot poll, then there is Banjo. All the choices of the third-party Fighters in DLC are aligned with Famitsu polls and ballot.
- Ryu : 1st 3rd and 4th in Top 20 Fighting games.
- Cloud : 1st in Top 10 PS1 games ; 2sd in Top 10 RPG series (2015) ; 4th in Top 20 best games for 30 years.
- Bayonetta : ballot.
- Joker : 1st in Top 100 best games of all time ; 1st in Top 20 Japanese games by oversaes readers ; 1st in Top 20 RPG of all time*.
- Hero : 1st in Top 10 RPG series (2015) ; 2sd in Top 100 best games of all time ; 2sd in Top 20 RPG of all time ; 2sd in Top 10 NES / PS2 games.
- Banjo : ballot.
Street Fighter, Final Fantasy, Persona, Dragon Quest are series that have each been in 1st place of a Famitsu top. This isn't the case of the new third-party series in basic games (Mega Man, Pac-Man, Castlevania). This isn't the case for Tekken or Tales.
Beyond the fact that many people interpret the 'new to Smash' quote differently than we do (as has been clearly shown)... Sakurai having followed the Smash Ballot isn't proof that he follows Famitsu polls. They're obviously two very different things.

I asked for proof of that. Not patterns, not possibilities, proof.
 

tenworldsguy

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Honestly with this whole debate, as much as I would absolutely love Porky's inclusion as a fighter, I would be okay with him as a boss or even a spirit. Something to end the debate and confirm us whether he's in or not. A sign that someone at Nintendo is aware that the EB spirit list feels incomplete.

As a fighter would make me overjoyed, but any solid "Yes, he's in" or "No, he's not" answer from Nintendo I would gladly take, just to feel some peace on the matter.
 

Ornl

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the energy spent debating fallacies and invalid logic is energy well spent.
many people interpret the 'new to Smash' quote differently than we do (as has been clearly shown)...
An argument ad populum is a fallacious argument.

Sakurai having followed the Smash Ballot isn't proof that he follows Famitsu polls. They're obviously two very different things.
I asked for proof of that. Not patterns, not possibilities, proof.
I have proven that Sakurai can rely on a poll, like the ballot. So I think it's legitimate to reason with polls, especially if Street Fighter, Final Fantasy VII, Persona 5 and Dragon Quest were 1st in Famitsu polls. You claim a proof. The problem is that you are clamoring a proof that would contradict information that you said without proof first. You claim a proof to deny your assertion below that has no proof first:
nobody cares about these Famitsu stats you keep bringing up. They're arbitrary and meaningless.
This message was also an unfounded assertion and an argument ad populum. If you think you're coming up with fallacious arguments in what I'm saying, maybe it's better not to answer with fallacious arguments. It's important not to blame others for what you do yourself.
 

SirCamp

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An argument ad populum is a fallacious argument.


I have proven that Sakurai can rely on a poll, like the ballot. So I think it's legitimate to reason with polls, especially if Street Fighter, Final Fantasy VII, Persona 5 and Dragon Quest were 1st in Famitsu polls. You claim a proof. The problem is that you are clamoring a proof that would contradict information that you said without proof first. You claim a proof to deny your assertion below that has no proof first:

This message was also an unfounded assertion and an argument ad populum. If you think you're coming up with fallacious arguments in what I'm saying, maybe it's better not to answer with fallacious arguments. It's important not to blame others for what you do yourself.

Nobody is saying that because many other people think differently, then their interpretation must be correct. People are saying that there are many interpretations of something that is not verifiable. Because we don’t really know what’s going on. No one is making a knowledge claim except you.
 

yeet123

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What are the odds we get Mother 3 this Friday to correlate with the Smash event?
 

ROBnWatch

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What are the odds we get Mother 3 this Friday to correlate with the Smash event?
I’m an EarthBound fan, and even I’m pretty sure the chances for that are kinda low. But here’s hoping! It is the series’ 30th Anniversary on Saturday, after all.
 
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Graizen

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Despite the fact that I’m not sure Digimon counts as a game franchise proper, having to only go through Bamco makes a world of difference in likelihood from, say, Dragon Ball having like 4 or 5 companies to go through. Assuming, of course, virtual pets do not count as video games: if they do, Digimon is.

Honestly, I still have no reason to believe Bamco is on the table. The biggest argument is about it is Pac-Man being the only character so far, but that didn’t help for Smash 4 DLC and didn’t help for base game. Don’t think it’s gonna change, even if Bamco has a bunch of awesome characters. Pretty sure the big reason that Bamco is in talks is almost solely due to seeing third party characters as company reps first and series reps second, and people are really convinced we can’t get Dragon Quest and Tomb Raider, Banjo and Minecraft, or (say Capcom gets a character) Resident Evil and Ace Attorney in the same Pass, even if all 6 have great popularity and unique fanbases with almost no overlap, due to fixation on competition and company fairness if they give a reason for it beyond it just “feeling unlikely” (though in the only case I care about, Puyo might have more than that in the way, like its creator not being invoked with the series or its only recently gained popularity in the west, let alone the possibility of one of the two parties not liking that idea). When wouldn’t it be MORE economical to get more than one in the same pass? Less companies to go through and split profits with, same amount of characters.

But if it does, I would bet on Tales or Digimon before anything else. Heihachi being a part of Pac-Man’s taunt and possibly getting a new actor too late for Smash, plus the difficulty in implementing the feeling of playing Tekken into Smash has me doubt him for now, though I consider him a prime candidate for next game in 2029 (soonest is 2028 if the Switch lives for 10 years), or if Bamco gets a character in Fighter Pass 2 which I don’t think will exist. Can’t see Soulcalibur before Tekken at all. And Dark Souls is the one I see as the Darkhorse: if we get a Bamco rep, and I’m wrong, I think Dark Souls will be the one.
In this recent video Bandai Namco posted, Habumon the Director of Digimon Games talked about Digimon games in general.


Here you can see that Virtual Pets (Tamagotchi) are called "LCD Games", and are the Start of Digimon.
 

GoodGrief741

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An argument ad populum is a fallacious argument.
I wasn't making the claim that just because people don't agree that means they're right. I was just pointing out that it's evident that our interpretation of Reggie's quote is not objectively correct, and there's room for debate. Others have already explained that point.
This message was also an unfounded assertion and an argument ad populum. If you think you're coming up with fallacious arguments in what I'm saying, maybe it's better not to answer with fallacious arguments. It's important not to blame others for what you do yourself
That's also not an ad populum. I was saying they're arbitrary and meaningless, as an explanation why nobody cares. The argument being that they're arbitrary and meaningless.

Now, prove that they're not.
I have proven that Sakurai can rely on a poll, like the ballot.
No, you've proven that Sakurai can rely on the Ballot, and specifically the Ballot. The differences between the Ballot and any old poll from any magazine are night and day, but since you clearly need them pointed out: the Ballot was an official poll by Nintendo that was made with the explicit purpose of suggesting characters people wanted in Smash games. Magazine polls like Famitsu are not.

Now prove that Sakurai has bases decisions of his on any old poll.

You know, for how much you accuse me of fallacies, you sure don't actually attempt to prove anything. You use those accusations as a crutch to escape having to explain yourself (hey, that's called the fallacy fallacy!). The burden of proof is on you, pal.

So please, next time you reply, accuse me of whatever fallacy tickles your fancy, but provide some concrete ****ing proof to back your claims while you're at it.
What are the odds we get Mother 3 this Friday to correlate with the Smash event?
1%
 

King Sonnn DeDeDoo

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Since things are little slow in terms of speculation until we get Hero, I’ll ask a question to gauge what people think.

If you were forced to bet real life money on who you think the last two DLC characters are, who would you predict at this current time?
 

Will

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Since things are little slow in terms of speculation until we get Hero, I’ll ask a question to gauge what people think.

If you were forced to bet real life money on who you think the last two DLC characters are, who would you predict at this current time?
goku and sans

1 dollar
 

tenworldsguy

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Since things are little slow in terms of speculation until we get Hero, I’ll ask a question to gauge what people think.

If you were forced to bet real life money on who you think the last two DLC characters are, who would you predict at this current time?
two vidya characters

a small loan of a million dollars
 

GoodGrief741

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Since things are little slow in terms of speculation until we get Hero, I’ll ask a question to gauge what people think.

If you were forced to bet real life money on who you think the last two DLC characters are, who would you predict at this current time?
Heihachi Mishima and Phoenix Wright.

Only like 2 dollars though I'm not a gambling man and the exchange rate would kill me.
 

Scoliosis Jones

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I’ve been gone, camping, with no internet, for the last 2 days.

I can’t believe Hero isn’t out yet.

Really pulling for tonight to be the night for the mini-Direct. Any later and it overlaps with Three Houses, and that’s not entirely a good way to set up a big Switch release. They could release him next week, but that’s just kinda...weird. I don’t know. Pacing just seems off I guess.
 

Playstation Guy 1000

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Since things are little slow in terms of speculation until we get Hero, I’ll ask a question to gauge what people think.

If you were forced to bet real life money on who you think the last two DLC characters are, who would you predict at this current time?
Doomslayer and Jill valentine(it's not the only prediction I can think of but it's the most likely to me).
 

TallT

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I’ve been gone, camping, with no internet, for the last 2 days.

I can’t believe Hero isn’t out yet.

Really pulling for tonight to be the night for the mini-Direct. Any later and it overlaps with Three Houses, and that’s not entirely a good way to set up a big Switch release. They could release him next week, but that’s just kinda...weird. I don’t know. Pacing just seems off I guess.
Sabi already said there is a 99% chance it isn't happening today so I wouldn't count on it. I'm betting on next week at this point.
 

Rie Sonomura

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Joker shadow dropped on a Thursday right? It’s possible the 4.0 Patch video featuring Hero will shadow drop tomorrow if anything
 

3BitSaurus

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Since things are little slow in terms of speculation until we get Hero, I’ll ask a question to gauge what people think.

If you were forced to bet real life money on who you think the last two DLC characters are, who would you predict at this current time?
Jill Valentine and then either a Tekken or KOF character, depending on how that "3D mechanics" thing pans out.

... if I'm being forced to bet, is it really a bet or just plain old extortion?
 

Dust319

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Since things are little slow in terms of speculation until we get Hero, I’ll ask a question to gauge what people think.

If you were forced to bet real life money on who you think the last two DLC characters are, who would you predict at this current time?

Survivor ( combo of re protagonists Leon/Jill/Chris/Claire) from Resident Evil
Ayane from Dead or Alive
$30

No Geno costume return or reveal as a playable fighter
$500
 

King Sonnn DeDeDoo

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Jill Valentine and then either a Tekken or KOF character, depending on how that "3D mechanics" thing pans out.

... if I'm being forced to bet, is it really a bet or just plain old extortion?
Lol it's just a hypothetical, I was mainly just giving an example of the stakes being high.

Lots of people saying Jill, which makes sense I'd probably bet on Jill or a Resident character too.
 

3BitSaurus

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Lol it's just a hypothetical, I was mainly just giving an example of the stakes being high.

Lots of people saying Jill, which makes sense I'd probably bet on Jill or a Resident character too.
... it was a joke, lol. Guess I should have used a :4pacman:.

I think Leon is possible too, but given that Jill is considered to be a "classic" RE protagonist, to the point of representing the series on her own in MvC2, I'm more inclined to think it would be her.
 

tenworldsguy

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Ryu Hayabusa needs to be in Smash, so that he may get his revenge on Ridley.
On the topic of Ryu.

I don't oppose him at all- the only "ninja" we have in smash are Sheik (a personification of Creative Liberties) and Greninja (who focuses more on "Naruto" ninja over "silent disgruntled farmer" ninja). Would he fit the behavior of one well? And if so, how could that translate into his playstyle?

From what I've seen he's not so much a direct conflict sort of guy, mixing projectiles with a "hit and run". Maybe his smash incarnation could be based around deception and mindgames, being awesome but super hard to use? I could be far from the truth though on that claim tho- I've never actually seriously buckled down and watched or played Ninja Gaiden as I have other games Smash has gotten me interested in.
 

KillerCage

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Since things are little slow in terms of speculation until we get Hero, I’ll ask a question to gauge what people think.

If you were forced to bet real life money on who you think the last two DLC characters are, who would you predict at this current time?
If we are to believe that Google has some truth to it, then the last two Fighters' Pass character would be Doom Slayer and Ryu Hayabusa.

If we are discard the theory, I still think Doom Slayer will be part of the pass. I also think we'll be getting a Capcom character, specifically Phoenix Wright.
 

OrpheusTelos

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Since things are little slow in terms of speculation until we get Hero, I’ll ask a question to gauge what people think.

If you were forced to bet real life money on who you think the last two DLC characters are, who would you predict at this current time?
Frisk and a Resident Evil character. I'm pretty torn between it being Jill or Leon, but if you had to force me to choose one, Leon I guess? I think both have about an equal chance of getting in, but I'll go with Leon just because RE2 and RE4 are among the most popular entries.
 
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