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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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XorahnGaia

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So, different question I have real quick: When is the next shareholder meeting for Nintendo again? 6th of August, or when?
It's around that time, but from what I understood it doesn't really matter from our perspective.
Apparently since the Q1 meeting isn't that important to Nintendo and they generally don't even talk directly to the investors, they just make a couple of phone calls and that's it.
So yeah, at this point they don't really have to show anything of substance to their investors, Nintendo is probably going to cruise by August with the next Partners Showcase and maybe if we're lucky we'll get a Byleth-style reveal for the next Smash character.
 

Schnee117

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I'm pretty convinced some of y'all don't know what precedent or speculation actually are.
 

Goombaic

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But instead of looking at it for what it is, "Yeah, you make a good case for it" it becomes "FAN RULE! Don't tell me what I can or can't talk about!" when that's literally not what anyone is doing.
Like poetry
I'm starting to see another rule surface here actually.

"Only the most recent of a series with an interchangeable cast gets added"
it rhymes.
 

Mr. Game + Watch

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I was wondering if does anyone of you want a character that hasn’t been smashified by anyone in the whole smash community or lacked a good 3D render?
I would like to know
One person that I would like to see someone smashify is crazy Dave. All 3D renders of crazy Dave people have made online, don’t look that great.
 

MooMew64

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IMO simply trying to shut down discussion by saying "Fan rule!" to everything is more limiting to speculation than the supposed "fan rules" are.

Like, in order to really try and seriously speculate, you kind of have to assume certain things are in place unless proven otherwise. Anything else is just random guessing. By looking at patterns, we can perceive that, until proven otherwise, there may be certain limitations in place that can help or hinder the chances of a character.
 

Guybrush20X6

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Actually, imagine if the next guessing game were focused on Ultimate's assist trophies?

I don't think my heart could handle it...
That would be a nightmare. A good 60% or more of ATs are characters people wanted to be able to play as.
 

Guynamednelson

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I'm starting to see another rule surface here actually.

"Only the most recent of a series with an interchangeable cast gets added"
Which is not why I'd think Rex is more likely, but rather having higher demand, coming from a better-selling game, the list goes on.
 

zeldasmash

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I think Resident Evil would fit perfectly but not Silent Hill. The RE heroes are basically action stars that have designs that stand out. The Silent Hill protagonists are normal people & usually look normal too.

RE is scary but it’s pretty goofy with zombies & silly, gigantic monsters with glowing weak points; I think that would fit well in Smash. Silent Hill is more psychological horror which I think is a bit too mature for Smash.

However, a Chibi-Pyramid Head appeared in the latest Bomberman game so maybe a Mii costume could work.



Isaac has been requested for a long time but he’s nowhere near Ridley, K Rool or Banjo’s level. He just doesn’t have the numbers to back him up.

I’d say the new top dogs are Crash, Geno & Sora with Bandana Dee & Doom Slayer following a bit behind.
I'd throw in Master Chief and maybe even Dante on the top dogs. These two are among the heavily requested and on the likelyhood specter of being part of the pass. Will they? No one knows, but they both have factors that allow people to think they are likely candidates. Plus they would both be huge additions to the roster, especially if it's Chief.
 
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MooMew64

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On the topic of another Zelda rep, Skull Kid please. Majora's Mask is like, my second favorite game of all time so I would just lose it with hype.

Tingle is also a very good choice.
 

zferolie

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I haven't been following this thread since monday. Anything floating around for the 27th? i swear i remember someone saying something is happening the 27th...
 

Hydreigonfan01

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Time for the regularly scheduled "leaker" check-up session!


Has this guy been disproven yet? I'm assuming not considering he hasn't been chased off the internet by angry Nintendo fans...
11a00eedf16a3e272706a7ca7e9d17d2.gif

I don't know who this leaker is.
 
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Evil Trapezium

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I was wondering if does anyone of you want a character that hasn’t been smashified by anyone in the whole smash community or lacked a good 3D render?
I would like to know
I'd love to see a HD fan render of Sgt. Cortez because there are barely any good renders of him to go on. Too bad I can't pay for any commissions.
 

Super Flygon

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Wat do you guys think about an Echo Fighters Pass?

A couple of weeks ago, I posted about how I predict the rest of the Smash Ultimate DLC will play out. I'd like to alter that slightly. Specifically, I think a third pass would actually be an echo fighters pass, containing 4 characters. Why an echo fighters pass and why 4 characters? Ironically, I have four reasons:

1. As stated previously, there was a datamine containing 16 extra characters, which would be the 12 DLC we know of plus 4 more (presumably, echo fighters would count, though I would like some confirmation from someone)

2. After Pass 2, there is still room for four more characters on the CSS (could be either echo or new).

3. After Pass 2, the roster with echo fighters stacked is a perfect rectangle, leading to the assumption that 4 echo fighters would get in, to keep a perfect rectangle in the stacked roster and to make the regular roster a perfect rectangle.

4. After Pass 2, there are 4 slots left for the stage select screen (actually 5, but that last slot is used for random stage select or something).

In summation, I think this would lead to us to getting 4 echo fighters after Pass 2, and they'd each some with a stage and music. Presumably, they'd be listed on the css after Pass 2 and before the Miis (I'm hopeful that we will have an option to organize characters and stages however we want after DLC, but I wouldn't bet heavily on that anyways). In any case, the echo fighters I picked could easily be placed next to their originals without messing up the roster too much (in a complete roster, echo fighters and originals should be on the same row).

Here's a rundown of how I think Pass 2 will play out, largely the same as before.

FP 7: Geno (Announce between August and Sept 2020. Release Oct 2020.)- Geno is probably the most requested character at this point, so I definitely think he should be added. Also, I feel we will get a fighter from Mario this year due to the 35th anniversary. Could also coincide with an announcement of Super Mario RPG either coming to NSO or getting a full remake!

FP 8: Urshifu (Announce Pokemon Day 2021. Release Mar 2021.)- Used solely to promote Sword and Shield, especially the DLC. I feel Urshifu is the most likely, but I really don't care that much who it is as long as SWSH gets a rep. Would prefer Cinderace though.

FP 9: Lloyd Irving (Announce E3 2021. Release after presentation.)- Gives Namco Bandai a new rep.

FP 10: Rayman (Announce E3 2021. Release Sept 2021.)- Gives Ubisoft a rep, and is basically their mascot. Also widely requested (probably third, after Geno & Crash). Could see Rayman and Lloyd reveals mirroring Banjo and Hero, in terms of appealing to fanbases.

FP 11: Crash Bandicoot (Announce Sept 2021. Release Nov 2021.)- One of the most requested third party characters, probably second to Geno at this point. Release would also coincide with a Switch version of Crash 4.

Now for the new stuff:

Crash's release in Nov 2021 would be during a Smash Ultimate Direct (dubbed the final presentation, like with 3DS/Wii U). Sakurai would announce the echo fighters pass and reveal all four characters, as well as their stages and music. At the end, he would go through a rundown of everything in the game like he did with the 3DS/Wii U presentation. The pass would release in January 2022, in order to give Crash some time in the limelight.

Since it's DLC, I could see them making the echo fighters possibly stand out slightly from their originals. Some quick ideas for the four I picked:

Impa: Different Down Special from Sheik and different FS
Dixie Kong: Different Up Special from Diddy and different FS.
Octoling: Different Side Special and different FS.
Tails: Slight size difference. Also, different FS and maybe Up Special too.

There could be other differences too, especially related to speed and power.

The pass would probably be about $15 because it has less characters, and they are very similar to past characters.

Outside of balance patches, Smash DLC would end with the release of the Echo Pass in January 2022.
 

Guybrush20X6

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I'm chosing to not listen to Smash leakers. That way I can't be mad and toxic if things don't work out.

SNES game development leakers are where it's at right now anyway.
 

Cosmic77

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I've experienced the worst of both sides.

Some people will shut down any argument because "fan rules are dumb." Others will get downright hostile if you challenge a "pattern" or claim that it could end up being broken. Both sides can be an absolute pain to have a conversation with.
 
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I.D.

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Elma and Rex won't happen because Nintendo has never added more than one character per subsidiary (Shulk, Dark Samus). That's just the way it goes.
 

zeldasmash

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Elma and Rex won't happen because Nintendo has never added more than one character per subsidiary (Shulk, Dark Samus). That's just the way it goes.
Huh...? I'm confused, what exactly do you mean? Dark Samus had Ridley, Chrom had Byleth and Daisy had Piranha Plant. Even Castlevania came with two Belmonts. And that's just in Ultimate. Ever since the original game there have been newcomers with multiple reps (Mario and Pokemon both had 2), Melee had multiple reps in a lot of franchises (3 in Mario, 4 in Zelda, 2 with Fire Emblem's inclusion, 2 with Pokemon and 2 with Star Fox), Brawl had 2 (or 4) new Pokemon reps and 2 new Kirby reps and Smash 4? Look at Fire Emblem in it's entirety.
 
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GoodGrief741

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Elma and Rex won't happen because Nintendo has never added more than one character per subsidiary (Shulk, Dark Samus). That's just the way it goes.
Wait til this man learns about Fire Emblem, gonna blow his mind
 

MooMew64

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I haven't been following this thread since monday. Anything floating around for the 27th? i swear i remember someone saying something is happening the 27th...
It's only speculation atm due to the fact that Nintendo has maintenance for that day and the 3rd. They also have a big shareholders meeting coming up, so some are thinking that we'll get announcements before then so they won't head into the meeting with no planned product releases.

TBH the maintenance will probably just be for Animal Crossing's August update. :drshrug:
 

FJA147

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I feel like that people always forget about a dark horse character that might have more of a chance than Geno or Waluigi. It’s Toad because Toad has become part of the 4 main playable characters in mainline Mario games such as in New Super Mario Bros games on home consoles and also in Super Mario 3D world. You also have that Toad has gotten a spin-off via Captain Toad. I think the character would be a light and fast character with a bad recovery and jump. They could pull from different games for his moveset including the Captain Toad games. If they were to reveal him he would fit in as part of the 35th Mario Anniversary and would help promote the rumored Super Mario 3D World Deluxe. Alts would be different toad colors and a toadette and toadsworth alt.
 

AceAttorney9000

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I feel like that people always forget about a dark horse character that might have more of a chance than Geno or Waluigi. It’s Toad because Toad has become part of the 4 main playable characters in mainline Mario games such as in New Super Mario Bros games on home consoles and also in Super Mario 3D world. You also have that Toad has gotten a spin-off via Captain Toad. I think the character would be a light and fast character with a bad recovery and jump. They could pull from different games for his moveset including the Captain Toad games. If they were to reveal him he would fit in as part of the 35th Mario Anniversary and would help promote the rumored Super Mario 3D World Deluxe. Alts would be different toad colors and a toadette and toadsworth alt.
Hot Take: in the event that a playable Toad ends up happening, instead of Captain Toad, it should be...
 

Opossum

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Some of y'all are really easy to dupe. Like come on now. It doesn't take a lot of effort to realize ID was making a purposely ridiculous comparison.
Except that the chances that Elma is gonna get the starring role in a future Xenoblade game is pretty good. X ended on a cliffhanger and with many open questions, so that a direct sequel has good chances of happening eventually. Picking her would be a future-proof choice. Contrast that with Fire Emblem and Pokémon games, which pretty much never get direct sequels, and only have past characters return to prominence via remakes.
Mystery of the Emblem and New Mystery of the Emblem are direct sequels to, respectively, Shadow Dragon and the Blade of Light, and Shadow Dragon.
Gaiden/Shadows of Valentia take place immediately between Shadow Dragon/Mystery.
Thracia 776 is a midquel of Genealogy of the Holy War.
The Blazing Blade is a prequel to The Binding Blade set twenty years prior.
Radiant Dawn is a direct sequel to Path of Radiance and takes place three years later.
Awakening, though indirect, takes place 2000 years after Mystery, and a few of its characters are also connected to Fates. Fates even had a DLC mission that took place immediately before Awakening's Prologue.
Even the Satellaview game, BS Archanea Chronicles, is a set of four prequel maps for Mystery of the Emblem book one.

The only Fire Emblem games in the main series with zero connection to other games are The Sacred Stones and Three Houses, and I'd put money on the latter potentially changing in the future.
 

Garteam

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I think the issue with "fan rules" is how they're used in the most extreme examples on both sides.

Usually when people complain about fan rules being restrictive, it refers to situations where these rules are held as holy absolutes that can never be broken and determine the fate of all characters. The reality is, no character is absolutely perfect in Smash in that they meet everyone's individual criteria about what will get a character into Smash. There will always be some deviation from the previous entries that could be deemed to be argued to harm their chances. What instead matters is the whole environment surrounding the character and their chances. It's essentially a pro-con analysis, not reaching an impossible standard of perfection. As such, it can be incredibly annoying to construct a case for a character using research and argumentation only to be met with "Well, they deviate from this quality that's present in these previous fighters, therefore they're not happening" (often with no explanation as to why that quality should really matter beyond precedent).

On the other hand, precedent is important in speculation. Now, Smash is far from a science, but it's similar to the scientific method in that we're developing predictive theories and empirically testing them against repeating scenarios. For example, user A theorizes that trait B is beneficially to getting into Smash. Users debating the validity of the theory by arguing whether trait B truly manifested in previous characters and if this trait really enhanced their chances at getting into Smash. What's important to all this is underlying assumption that the past is somewhat predictive of the future. There are some criteria in previous that, while subject to change, are desired in future fighters and thusly can be used to gauge their chances to join the battle. As such, if we just throw our hands up and say "every character is selected an entirely different set of reasons and every single one of those reasons changes from fighter to fighter", it's difficult to really speculate as a group. Sure, we can still construct arguments that characters fit certain criteria and thus will join the battle, but that criteria will inevitably vary from person to person with no objective method of resolution, so it's a moot point. I like discussing weird, outlandish choices too and I definitely think there's a place for it, but if we just do that it's hard to call what we do speculation.

TL;DR: Fan rules suck when they're used as an absolute, unbreakable standard that every character must measure up to, but they're extremely useful when used correctly and are a necessity for speculation.
 
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Calamitas

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Mystery of the Emblem and New Mystery of the Emblem are direct sequels to, respectively, Shadow Dragon and the Blade of Light, and Shadow Dragon.
Gaiden/Shadows of Valentia take place immediately between Shadow Dragon/Mystery.
Thracia 776 is a midquel of Genealogy of the Holy War.
The Blazing Blade is a prequel to The Binding Blade set twenty years prior.
Radiant Dawn is a direct sequel to Path of Radiance and takes place three years later.
Awakening, though indirect, takes place 2000 years after Mystery, and a few of its characters are also connected to Fates. Fates even had a DLC mission that took place immediately before Awakening's Prologue.
Even the Satellaview game, BS Archanea Chronicles, is a set of four prequel maps for Mystery of the Emblem book one.

The only Fire Emblem games in the main series with zero connection to other games are The Sacred Stones and Three Houses, and I'd put money on the latter potentially changing in the future.
Alright, that was a bit of a brain fart on my part. Still, to my knowledge, no FE game ever really ended on a cliffhanger, or followed up on one particular game after too big of a gap (with the exception of Awakening, which is a very distant sequel, though).
 

zferolie

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It's only speculation atm due to the fact that Nintendo has maintenance for that day and the 3rd. They also have a big shareholders meeting coming up, so some are thinking that we'll get announcements before then so they won't head into the meeting with no planned product releases.

TBH the maintenance will probably just be for Animal Crossing's August update. :drshrug:
Yeah its probably maintance for AC, but that investors meeting will not go over well if they have no 1st party games on the table to show...
 

Calamitas

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Time for the regularly scheduled "leaker" check-up session!


Has this guy been disproven yet? I'm assuming not considering he hasn't been chased off the internet by angry Nintendo fans...
Hold on, who's that again? The icon reminds me of something, but I can't quite place it.
 

Opossum

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Alright, that was a bit of a brain fart on my part. Still, to my knowledge, no FE game ever really ended on a cliffhanger, or followed up on one particular game after too big of a gap (with the exception of Awakening, which is a very distant sequel, though).
Even then, that's not exactly true. Path of Radiance had several plot threads unresolved and was clearly made with Radiant Dawn in mind, especially since the identity of the Black Knight was listed in the code despite not being revealed until Radiant Dawn.
 

Digital Hazard

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At this point, "fanrule" is just some easy buzzword people can pull out whenever they think an argument isn't going on their favor.

It's amazing how there are some people that just want certain characters to prove they are false; there were people celebrating Min Min not because she was fun for them or they were fans of ARMS, but rather the "spirit fanrule" was now "broken".

As if that's an assurance whatever character they want is getting in now. And there were some seriously hoping it was Spring Man so the "AT fanrule" would be disproved.
 

ZephyrZ

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I'm pretty convinced some of y'all don't know what precedent or speculation actually are.
Speculation is the art of convincing everyone, including yourself, that your favorite character is definitely going to be the next character in the fighters pass. Everyone knows that.
 

Calamitas

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Even then, that's not exactly true. Path of Radiance had several plot threads unresolved and was clearly made with Radiant Dawn in mind, especially since the identity of the Black Knight was listed in the code despite not being revealed until Radiant Dawn.
Well, fair enough. I have yet to play the Tellius games, seeing as those cost roughly a dozen human souls these days, and I only ever got into the series with Awakening. That still doesn't account for my second point though, namely that there hasn't really been a direct sequel to a particular game after other games come out.
. . .So I still maintain that Xenoblade is in a different position from FE as far as sequels are concerned, though.
 
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Aetheri

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At this point, "fanrule" is just some easy buzzword people can pull out whenever they think an argument isn't going on their favor.

It's amazing how there are some people that just want certain characters to prove they are false; there were people celebrating Min Min not because she was fun for them or they were fans of ARMS, but rather the "spirit fanrule" was now "broken".

As if that's an assurance whatever character they want is getting in now. And there were some seriously hoping it was Spring Man so the "AT fanrule" would be disproved.
That's not necessarily a bad thing. Some people just want to hope their character still has a chance of getting in. Its not fun when speculation around characters you care about is pretty much nonexistent.
 

Rie Sonomura

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There was a problem fetching the tweet

Combined with that other dude I’d say we will see a shadow drop of another direct
 

Opossum

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There was a problem fetching the tweet

Combined with that other dude I’d say we will see a shadow drop of another direct
We get a new Direct but it's literally just the English version of the Atelier Ryza trailer we didn't get last time.
 
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