Guess Min Min's no longer our resident distance demon, 'cause we're reaching whole new levels of reaching here.
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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion
- Thread starter Cyn
- Start date
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Playstation Guy 1000
Smash Journeyman
- Joined
- Jun 22, 2019
- Messages
- 359
it's sad when this **** almost always happens just because an actual decent to good leaker got a thing or two wrong.
that's actually not a bad idea.
I wonder why this wasn't in the American/Europe direct since at least that at help a bit of the reception.
I could see Sakurai do a byleth style direct and revealed a new character in the upcoming weeks/months.
most likely.
Speed Weed
Smash Master
hey guys. i just wanted to share a theory from a guy at a discord i'm in as to why nintendo has been so quiet, and it basically boils down to one thing: their workspaces aren't in the cloud like other companies which have this as a standard.
let me explain: nowadays, a lot of companies store their software and files in the cloud, so when the pandemic hit and people needed to work from home, this made it so stuff like, say, video editing in a video editing software or voiceover files for a direct could be moved and worked on from any device at home. i think it's called cloud-based workspaces and it's currently the standard in the workplace, especially for the tech industry. the guy who first came up with this theory found this job listing a while back: https://careers.nintendo.com/job-openings/listing/19000000AY.html?src=CWS-10000
the wording in the listing implied that they weren't fully working in the cloud, with lines such as:
"Work with the application teams to define and implement roadmaps for services and applications as we transition to cloud"
"Participates in the development of a common, enterprise-wide cloud strategy."
"Assist the overall architect team in developing the foundational frameworks for creation and delivery of software and infrastructure services across NOA, and in some cases across NCL, in areas like: Serverless applications, containers, tools and standards, including monitoring, SLAs, security, etc..."
this all heavily implies that nintendo ties all their work software and files to servers in their HQs and would mean in the event of switching to fully at home, things like making a direct would be way harder, as a possible direct many editors and other people were working on becomes locked to a server they can't access from home, meaning they might need to start over, and may not have had access to the programs they would work with at the office as they're tied to the HQ servers. i could be completely wrong about this, but that job listing could also explain a hell of a lot
let me explain: nowadays, a lot of companies store their software and files in the cloud, so when the pandemic hit and people needed to work from home, this made it so stuff like, say, video editing in a video editing software or voiceover files for a direct could be moved and worked on from any device at home. i think it's called cloud-based workspaces and it's currently the standard in the workplace, especially for the tech industry. the guy who first came up with this theory found this job listing a while back: https://careers.nintendo.com/job-openings/listing/19000000AY.html?src=CWS-10000
the wording in the listing implied that they weren't fully working in the cloud, with lines such as:
"Work with the application teams to define and implement roadmaps for services and applications as we transition to cloud"
"Participates in the development of a common, enterprise-wide cloud strategy."
"Assist the overall architect team in developing the foundational frameworks for creation and delivery of software and infrastructure services across NOA, and in some cases across NCL, in areas like: Serverless applications, containers, tools and standards, including monitoring, SLAs, security, etc..."
this all heavily implies that nintendo ties all their work software and files to servers in their HQs and would mean in the event of switching to fully at home, things like making a direct would be way harder, as a possible direct many editors and other people were working on becomes locked to a server they can't access from home, meaning they might need to start over, and may not have had access to the programs they would work with at the office as they're tied to the HQ servers. i could be completely wrong about this, but that job listing could also explain a hell of a lot
7NATOR
Smash Master
- Joined
- Feb 13, 2016
- Messages
- 4,089
I mean, It's a Pattern that hasn't been broken. That's got to count for something
I just think this is Something interesting that could be useful for Speculation. I've been improving my Speculation Skills ever Since the Base game ended and I never got character right. I still haven't gotten a character right, but FP2 is gonna be a new Story.
Using this along with some of my other Theories might be able to pinpoint who the next 5 fighters are
Schnee117
Too Majestic for Gender
Shroob
Sup?
Ya know, I know the room's tension is ****ing high right now but
As a SMT fan, you do not know how GOOD it feels to see SMTV FINALLY SHOWN OFF AFTER NEARLY FOUR YEARS OF RADIO SILENCE, like MY GOD.
And TO TOP IT OFF, AN HD REMAKE OF NOCTURNE?! HOLY ****ING ****
As a SMT fan, you do not know how GOOD it feels to see SMTV FINALLY SHOWN OFF AFTER NEARLY FOUR YEARS OF RADIO SILENCE, like MY GOD.
And TO TOP IT OFF, AN HD REMAKE OF NOCTURNE?! HOLY ****ING ****
DaybreakHorizon
Beauty in the Chaos
I had this mostly ready yesterday but stopped work on it and now that things have calmed down I'm just gonna get this out real quick before anything comes up later:
I'll be compiling all of my essays into a master post in about an hour or so, so people can read through all the essays at once if they'd like (and so I can also link to it in my signature as another one of my writing pieces).
The Second Square Enix Argument
To catch up on the series, please refer to:- Part 1: Introduction, Nier, and Gex
- Part 2: Final Fantasy, Lara Croft, and Crono
- Part 3: Geno
- Part 4: Sora
It's funny how I'm ending this collection of essays with the series that inspired me to write it in the first place.
Let's start with a small primer on the Bravely series:
Bravely Default originally released in 2012 in Japan. There, it topped the charts, selling 141,529 units in the first week after its release, and sold through 85.68% of its initial stock. It performed much better than its contemporary that released at the same time, Project X Zone, as well as it's predecessor, Final Fantasy: The 4 Heroes of Light. In reporting on this, Silconera noted this to be an incredibly strong performance for a brand new franchise–which we'll find becomes a running trend for the Bravely series. The game wouldn't see release until over a year later in Europe, Australia, and America in 2013 for the former two and 2014 for the latter.
The period between the original Japanese release and the announcement of the English localization was met with much demand from journalists and JRPG fans alike, which ultimately led to the game being localized despite there being no plans initially to do so. The positive Western response honestly surprised the team, with them admitting that they were "deeply moved" by it publicly. An interesting thing to note is that Nintendo picked up the publishing for Bravely Default (and its sequel Bravely Second) in all regions outside of Japan, which makes it similar to Dragon Quest in this way.
The success of the original Bravely Default was so large that it led to Square Enix reevaluating their strategy for Final Fantasy, their breadwinner series. In a 2014 interview following Bravely Default breaking 1 million units sold worldwide, Square Enix President Yosuke Matsuda had this to say about Bravely compared to Final Fantasy:
So, where did they go from there? A lot of places really.
The original game also received two supplementary books in 2013, two drama CDs with supplementary stories in 2013 and 2014, and a manga that ran from 2015 to 2016, of which two compiled volumes have been released. In addition, three different mobile games have been made for Bravely over the years (continuing to prove the age old rule of all Square Enix series getting a mobile game), those being 2012's Playing Brage, 2015's Bravely Archive (released in 2018 in Western markets), and most recently 2017's Fairy's Effect. Of these, Bravely Archive is the most notable, having surpassed 4 million downloads in Japan and being the only Bravely mobile title released outside of Japan. As of right now, however, Fariy's Effect is the only ongoing game, as both Playing Brage and Bravely Archive were discontinued in 2019. However, Fairy Effect is also set to be discontinued a little over a month from the time of writing, on August 31st, 2020. While the multimedia projects seem to be rather standard for a series popular in Japan, and none of the games really took off all that much, I feel the need to mention these because it shows that the Bravely series has received a steady stream of media throughout the years. Bravely is very much an active series for Square Enix, even if it seems to have been sidelined for the most part.
Most notable is the sequel that the game received, Bravely Second. Talk of a sequel to the original Bravely Default started as early as December 2012, two months after the original game's release. A Final Mix version of the original with added features, Bravely Default: For the Sequel, was announced in August 2013, all but confirming a sequel before it was officially announced in December 2013 (though the trademark registration had been caught by fans in September). Bravely Second released in Japan in 2015 and reached Western markets in 2016. Despite critical acclaim, the game didn't sell as well as its' predecessor, only selling 700,000 units by April 2017, when Bravely Default had reached 1 million units sold in the same time span. Despite this, it did rather well, especially considering JRPGs had yet to take off as they have now. Most recently, the game topped UK sales charts at Number 2, just below The Last of Us 2, in June 2020, just last month at the time of writing, due to a flash sale run by popular retailer Argos. Despite being the weaker of the two Bravely 3DS titles (at least according to series producer Tomoya Asano), people have been exposed to Bravely Second about as much as the original, lending further evidence to the wide exposure people have had to the Bravely series.
However, after 2017, a lot of momentum for the Bravely series seems to stop. No releases, little news, just a group of fans desperately hoping for a Bravely Default 2. You'd think this is where the story ends. The Bravely series was a flash in the pan and has since fizzled into obscurity. Discussion on Bravely in Smash will be consigned to remembering the odd render leaks we've gotten in the past, laughing about it, and moving on to engage in the same circular discussion on Pokémon for the 2,037th time.
Right?
Wrong.
Let's talk about Octopath Traveler.
While at first glance it might seem like Octopath Traveler has absolutely nothing to do with Bravely, I'd like to mention it nonetheless, specifically because it was the next game produced by Asano after Bravely Default and Bravely Second, and is likely responsible for the lull the Bravely series experienced.
Octopath Traveler's announcement pre-dates the Switch's release date, and it was very much set up as an important title for the Switch. Perhaps this explains the game's overwhelming success, with the game selling through 90% of its initial stock and causing Square Enix to apologize twice for a lack of stock to meet demand. Octopath was a huge success for Square Enix, selling 2 million units as of April, doubling the sales of Bravely Default (albeit, with more time and a Windows port–though I would personally say the Windows port speaks to the success of the original Switch release). Considering that Square Enix focusing on the Switch was contingent on Octopath's success, it could be said that Octopath is, in part, responsible for the second Nintendo-Square Enix renaissance we find ourselves in right now.
The reason I mention Octopath is for a couple of reasons.
Bravely Default 2, headlining Nintendo's announcements at the The Game Awards 2019 alongside No More Heroes 3. This streak of Nintendo pushing Bravely Default 2 continues into the March 2020 Direct Mini, where it takes up 1/7th of the English Direct, the most amount of time of any game. A demo releases the same day that Nintendo spams the News tab with notifications about. Nintendo seems to be setting Bravely Default 2 to be the next Octopath Traveler-esque success worldwide, which is what I believe gives it a significant edge as Nintendo could implore Sakurai to include it for promotional reasons. Again, there's a massive audience for JRPG fans on Switch, and what better way to wrap them into buying Fighters Pass 2 than to include a prominent Nintendo-exclusive JRPG series in it?
I also believe that a major mechanic of the game, job switching, is an interesting moveset mechanic that Sakurai has previously expressed interest in. We know he's prone to revisit ideas whenever he can, so I could see him going after Bravely in part due to this as well. Remember, Sakurai weighs a fun moveset equally to, if not more important than recognizability, so the point about Bravely characters not being recognizable enough falls largely moot.
Now, with the Bravely series being established as a strong contender for the coveted Square Enix spot, the question becomes: What character(s) will they choose?
Which is actually kind of a tough question.
I'll start by saying that we'll likely see multiple characters a lá Hero, given that the job switching mechanic of Bravely is universal across all playable party members. In terms of the most prominent choices, I would say they're Edea Lee and Tiz Arrior.
Gentlepanda
win
To start, Edea is the most popular character in the series, placing highest by far in fan polls (granted, there aren't many of them, nor are any of them significantly large, but she is number 1 on them)
Additionally, she seems to a favorite of the developers and the pseudo-mascot for the Bravely series, as evidenced by her being playable in both Bravely Default and Bravely Second as well as the many Bravely tweets she's prominently featured in:
I name Tiz as well given that he is the most popular male character in the series, and like Edea is playable in both Bravely Default and Bravely Second.
Agnès Oblige bears mention for being in the two fake leaks of Bravely in Smash, as well as her prominent story role in Bravely Second.
I also believe that Edea, Tiz, and Agnès bear similar proportions to Adelle, Seth, and Gloria from Bravely Default 2 respectively, which could also allow for Nintendo to integrate characters from the sequel as well.
While Bravely is not as widely speculated for Smash as other Square Enix series, its steady amount of success combined with the set-up its receiving right now makes it a prime competitor for the next Square Enix spot in my opinion.
Let's start with a small primer on the Bravely series:
Bravely Default originally released in 2012 in Japan. There, it topped the charts, selling 141,529 units in the first week after its release, and sold through 85.68% of its initial stock. It performed much better than its contemporary that released at the same time, Project X Zone, as well as it's predecessor, Final Fantasy: The 4 Heroes of Light. In reporting on this, Silconera noted this to be an incredibly strong performance for a brand new franchise–which we'll find becomes a running trend for the Bravely series. The game wouldn't see release until over a year later in Europe, Australia, and America in 2013 for the former two and 2014 for the latter.
The period between the original Japanese release and the announcement of the English localization was met with much demand from journalists and JRPG fans alike, which ultimately led to the game being localized despite there being no plans initially to do so. The positive Western response honestly surprised the team, with them admitting that they were "deeply moved" by it publicly. An interesting thing to note is that Nintendo picked up the publishing for Bravely Default (and its sequel Bravely Second) in all regions outside of Japan, which makes it similar to Dragon Quest in this way.
The success of the original Bravely Default was so large that it led to Square Enix reevaluating their strategy for Final Fantasy, their breadwinner series. In a 2014 interview following Bravely Default breaking 1 million units sold worldwide, Square Enix President Yosuke Matsuda had this to say about Bravely compared to Final Fantasy:
To reiterate, Bravely Default, a portable game not tied to any major existing series, managed to make Square Enix reconsider how they're handling Final Fantasy, their longest running, best-selling series. That's huge. Needless to say, Bravely Default was a huge success for Square Enix.
So, where did they go from there? A lot of places really.
The original game also received two supplementary books in 2013, two drama CDs with supplementary stories in 2013 and 2014, and a manga that ran from 2015 to 2016, of which two compiled volumes have been released. In addition, three different mobile games have been made for Bravely over the years (continuing to prove the age old rule of all Square Enix series getting a mobile game), those being 2012's Playing Brage, 2015's Bravely Archive (released in 2018 in Western markets), and most recently 2017's Fairy's Effect. Of these, Bravely Archive is the most notable, having surpassed 4 million downloads in Japan and being the only Bravely mobile title released outside of Japan. As of right now, however, Fariy's Effect is the only ongoing game, as both Playing Brage and Bravely Archive were discontinued in 2019. However, Fairy Effect is also set to be discontinued a little over a month from the time of writing, on August 31st, 2020. While the multimedia projects seem to be rather standard for a series popular in Japan, and none of the games really took off all that much, I feel the need to mention these because it shows that the Bravely series has received a steady stream of media throughout the years. Bravely is very much an active series for Square Enix, even if it seems to have been sidelined for the most part.
Most notable is the sequel that the game received, Bravely Second. Talk of a sequel to the original Bravely Default started as early as December 2012, two months after the original game's release. A Final Mix version of the original with added features, Bravely Default: For the Sequel, was announced in August 2013, all but confirming a sequel before it was officially announced in December 2013 (though the trademark registration had been caught by fans in September). Bravely Second released in Japan in 2015 and reached Western markets in 2016. Despite critical acclaim, the game didn't sell as well as its' predecessor, only selling 700,000 units by April 2017, when Bravely Default had reached 1 million units sold in the same time span. Despite this, it did rather well, especially considering JRPGs had yet to take off as they have now. Most recently, the game topped UK sales charts at Number 2, just below The Last of Us 2, in June 2020, just last month at the time of writing, due to a flash sale run by popular retailer Argos. Despite being the weaker of the two Bravely 3DS titles (at least according to series producer Tomoya Asano), people have been exposed to Bravely Second about as much as the original, lending further evidence to the wide exposure people have had to the Bravely series.
However, after 2017, a lot of momentum for the Bravely series seems to stop. No releases, little news, just a group of fans desperately hoping for a Bravely Default 2. You'd think this is where the story ends. The Bravely series was a flash in the pan and has since fizzled into obscurity. Discussion on Bravely in Smash will be consigned to remembering the odd render leaks we've gotten in the past, laughing about it, and moving on to engage in the same circular discussion on Pokémon for the 2,037th time.
Right?
Wrong.
Let's talk about Octopath Traveler.
While at first glance it might seem like Octopath Traveler has absolutely nothing to do with Bravely, I'd like to mention it nonetheless, specifically because it was the next game produced by Asano after Bravely Default and Bravely Second, and is likely responsible for the lull the Bravely series experienced.
Octopath Traveler's announcement pre-dates the Switch's release date, and it was very much set up as an important title for the Switch. Perhaps this explains the game's overwhelming success, with the game selling through 90% of its initial stock and causing Square Enix to apologize twice for a lack of stock to meet demand. Octopath was a huge success for Square Enix, selling 2 million units as of April, doubling the sales of Bravely Default (albeit, with more time and a Windows port–though I would personally say the Windows port speaks to the success of the original Switch release). Considering that Square Enix focusing on the Switch was contingent on Octopath's success, it could be said that Octopath is, in part, responsible for the second Nintendo-Square Enix renaissance we find ourselves in right now.
The reason I mention Octopath is for a couple of reasons.
- One, Asano admitted it was designed with the shortcomings of Bravely Second in mind, showing a direct link between Bravely and Octopath.
- Two, it continues Asano's hot streak within Square Enix. He's very much become a prominent figure within the company, and I believe this is a fact that ought to be noted in speculation on Bravely
- Third, and most important, the massive success of Octopath proved that there's a significant audience for JRPG games on the Nintendo Switch. Nintendo and Square Enix are very much aware of this.
Bravely Default 2, headlining Nintendo's announcements at the The Game Awards 2019 alongside No More Heroes 3. This streak of Nintendo pushing Bravely Default 2 continues into the March 2020 Direct Mini, where it takes up 1/7th of the English Direct, the most amount of time of any game. A demo releases the same day that Nintendo spams the News tab with notifications about. Nintendo seems to be setting Bravely Default 2 to be the next Octopath Traveler-esque success worldwide, which is what I believe gives it a significant edge as Nintendo could implore Sakurai to include it for promotional reasons. Again, there's a massive audience for JRPG fans on Switch, and what better way to wrap them into buying Fighters Pass 2 than to include a prominent Nintendo-exclusive JRPG series in it?
I also believe that a major mechanic of the game, job switching, is an interesting moveset mechanic that Sakurai has previously expressed interest in. We know he's prone to revisit ideas whenever he can, so I could see him going after Bravely in part due to this as well. Remember, Sakurai weighs a fun moveset equally to, if not more important than recognizability, so the point about Bravely characters not being recognizable enough falls largely moot.
Now, with the Bravely series being established as a strong contender for the coveted Square Enix spot, the question becomes: What character(s) will they choose?
Which is actually kind of a tough question.
I'll start by saying that we'll likely see multiple characters a lá Hero, given that the job switching mechanic of Bravely is universal across all playable party members. In terms of the most prominent choices, I would say they're Edea Lee and Tiz Arrior.
Gentlepanda
winTo start, Edea is the most popular character in the series, placing highest by far in fan polls (granted, there aren't many of them, nor are any of them significantly large, but she is number 1 on them)
Additionally, she seems to a favorite of the developers and the pseudo-mascot for the Bravely series, as evidenced by her being playable in both Bravely Default and Bravely Second as well as the many Bravely tweets she's prominently featured in:
遅くなってしまいましたが―
— ブレイブリーデフォルトII公式 (@BDFF_OFFICIAL) January 10, 2018
本年もよろしくお願いしますm_ _m
海外サイトにて、2018年の期待するゲームに
オクトパスがランクインしたようです。
チーム一同、がんばります！https://t.co/U6LPBEeNRu pic.twitter.com/7rIAi9C1dJ
＼ハッピーメリークリスマス！／ pic.twitter.com/gGDGj13Ley
— ブレイブリーデフォルトII公式 (@BDFF_OFFICIAL) December 23, 2017
明けましておめでとうございます！
— ブレイブリーデフォルトII公式 (@BDFF_OFFICIAL) December 31, 2016
本年も、よろしくお願いしまする
m_ _m pic.twitter.com/eijJH7Fyb2
ブレイブリー生誕４周年！
— ブレイブリーデフォルトII公式 (@BDFF_OFFICIAL) October 11, 2016
最近は情報に乏しくてごめんなさい。
近々 何かあるかも……！？ pic.twitter.com/F2FBalVoMq
I name Tiz as well given that he is the most popular male character in the series, and like Edea is playable in both Bravely Default and Bravely Second.
Agnès Oblige bears mention for being in the two fake leaks of Bravely in Smash, as well as her prominent story role in Bravely Second.
I also believe that Edea, Tiz, and Agnès bear similar proportions to Adelle, Seth, and Gloria from Bravely Default 2 respectively, which could also allow for Nintendo to integrate characters from the sequel as well.
While Bravely is not as widely speculated for Smash as other Square Enix series, its steady amount of success combined with the set-up its receiving right now makes it a prime competitor for the next Square Enix spot in my opinion.
Neku's been around as a fan request in one form or another since the Brawl period, and while he's never been as popular of a pick as Final Fantasy, Geno, or Sora, nor is his series (game?) as popular as juggernauts like Dragon Quest or Lara Croft, I believe there are some recent factors that should lead to a reevaluation of his chances.
To start, for a single game, The World Ends With You has seen a significant amount of re-releases and media appearances, especially for a single game released over a decade ago. The original game was ported to iOS in 2012 (with a shadow re-release in 2015 after it disappeared for a couple of months due to incompatibility with iOS 8), Android in 2014, and the Nintendo Switch in 2018. Main characters Neku, Shiki, Beat, Rhyme, and Joshua appeared prominently in Kingdom Hearts: Dream Drop Distance, with Neku showing up in one of the earliest trailers for the game.
Just recently, an anime adaptation of the original game was announced (and is actually being handled by a set of seemingly competent studios instead of A-1).
You don't make an entire anime series for a franchise you have no plans of continuing.
Notable also is the constant remarks from developers of the series about their desire to make a sequel. The game's director, Tatsuya Kando, expressed interest for such in a 2009 interview, and he's been echoed by Character Designer Tetsuya Normura in in 2010, and most recently 2018 when he said that it was his "intention of making this [TWEWY Final Mix] [his] last time working with the original game."
Remember that Sakurai and Normura have a very strong business relationship, if not a friendship, which could be a significant edge for Neku.
While The World Ends With You franchise has only seen one game released so far, this one game has managed to live on for over a decade, and is carried by prominent members of Square Enix to this day. The announcement of the recent anime adaptation shows that Square Enix very much still cares for TWEWY, which could lead to them pushing for Neku's inclusion in Smash.
To start, for a single game, The World Ends With You has seen a significant amount of re-releases and media appearances, especially for a single game released over a decade ago. The original game was ported to iOS in 2012 (with a shadow re-release in 2015 after it disappeared for a couple of months due to incompatibility with iOS 8), Android in 2014, and the Nintendo Switch in 2018. Main characters Neku, Shiki, Beat, Rhyme, and Joshua appeared prominently in Kingdom Hearts: Dream Drop Distance, with Neku showing up in one of the earliest trailers for the game.
It's also speculated that the The World Ends With You universe will play a larger role in the Kingdom Hearts sieres going forward, as Sora ends up in a different version of Shibuya with what seems to be TWEWY's 104 Tower. While this is unsubstantiated, I believe it's worth mentioning regardless.
You don't make an entire anime series for a franchise you have no plans of continuing.
Notable also is the constant remarks from developers of the series about their desire to make a sequel. The game's director, Tatsuya Kando, expressed interest for such in a 2009 interview, and he's been echoed by Character Designer Tetsuya Normura in in 2010, and most recently 2018 when he said that it was his "intention of making this [TWEWY Final Mix] [his] last time working with the original game."
Remember that Sakurai and Normura have a very strong business relationship, if not a friendship, which could be a significant edge for Neku.
While The World Ends With You franchise has only seen one game released so far, this one game has managed to live on for over a decade, and is carried by prominent members of Square Enix to this day. The announcement of the recent anime adaptation shows that Square Enix very much still cares for TWEWY, which could lead to them pushing for Neku's inclusion in Smash.
In conclusion, Square Enix and Nintendo's corporate relationship seems to be stronger than ever, which, when combined with a precedent for negotiation on Smash DLC, would streamline negotiations for a Square Enix character significantly. Square Enix still has a variety of iconic series and characters that, for one reason or another, would be beneficial for Nintendo to include in Smash Bros.
Assuming we get a second Square Enix character, I'd rate the above character's likelihoods as such:
Bravely ≥ 2B/Nier > Neku ≥ Final Fantasy > Sora = Geno = Lara Croft > Crono
Bravely ≥ 2B/Nier > Neku ≥ Final Fantasy > Sora = Geno = Chrono ≥ Lara Croft >>> Gex
Sorry Gex fans.
Of course, this is all assuming we do get a second Square Enix character. As of right now, I believe we know too little about Pass 2 to properly speculate as to how it will look. I personally believe this will be a more reserved pass compared to our last one, and will focus more on first parties and third party series closely associated with Smash, but that's simply based off the discrepancy between starting with Joker and starting with Min Min (and some things I've heard here and there, but I try not to let hearsay determine my speculation in a significant way–at that point I'd feel less a speculator and more a "leaker," and those guys are honestly annoying).
I'm sure that as more information is revealed my speculation will change. Maybe this pass will be just as bombastic as the first, or maybe it'll be more reserved than I think it will be now. Because of this, I tried to cover as many bases as I could, as each of the above characters (except Gex) has a real chance of inclusion based on how this Pass' composition was determined.
So please, don't throw hate my way or include me in any celebratory "haha in your face my character got in despite what you said" posts just because I gave counterarguments for your character or said that they're not the likeliest in my opinion. I'm sure that'll happen anyways, but whatever.
Regardless, I hope this piece has provided a wider perspective on character speculation. There's truly a lot to consider when it comes to a character's chances, and when there are so many unknowns and hypotheticals at play it can be difficult to look at the wider picture. I believe you can take this general thought process and apply it to speculation as a whole, and not just specifically pertaining to Square Enix. Maybe I'll do so in another piece, but I won't make any promises.
To close, I hope you're all staying well and safe throughout these crazy times. We'll get through this together.
Assuming we get a second Square Enix character, I'd rate the above character's likelihoods as such:
Bravely ≥ 2B/Nier > Neku ≥ Final Fantasy > Sora = Geno = Lara Croft > Crono
- Nier and Bravely are two of Square Enix's major franchises as of the moment, with Nier seeing a large internal push within the company and Bravely seeing a large push by Nintendo.
- Both The World Ends With You and Final Fantasy have seen large promotion recently, which could hypothetically lead to Square pushing these series in Smash.
- Sora, Geno, and Lara, while worthy of inclusion in their own rights, all have something holding them back.
- Sora has the absolute wildcard that is Disney to consider, and I'm not going to try to predict their actions. I personally lean towards negotiations failing for one reason or another.
- Geno has overwhelming popularity, but also has to go through Square Enix, who seems content to let him live on in PNGs and Mii Costumes. I call his chances on a 50/50 coin flip that could work out either way depending on how strong his fan demand is perceived by Nintendo and Square Enix.
- Lara Croft, while an iconic character in gaming as a whole, has to go through the additional processes that entail working with a Western company to include a character in Smash. I simply don't know if Nintendo and Sakurai would go for that, especially when significant fan demand does not exist and Square Enix doesn't seem as willing to work with Nintendo on her inclusion as Microsoft was for Banjo & Kazooie's inclusion.
- Chrono, while coming from one of the most revered games of the 16 bit era, doesn't have much traction going for his series currently. While not a kill blow for his chances, this creates significant doubt when Square could use the slot to promote one of their active series or a more popular character.
Bravely ≥ 2B/Nier > Neku ≥ Final Fantasy > Sora = Geno = Chrono ≥ Lara Croft >>> Gex
Sorry Gex fans.
Of course, this is all assuming we do get a second Square Enix character. As of right now, I believe we know too little about Pass 2 to properly speculate as to how it will look. I personally believe this will be a more reserved pass compared to our last one, and will focus more on first parties and third party series closely associated with Smash, but that's simply based off the discrepancy between starting with Joker and starting with Min Min (and some things I've heard here and there, but I try not to let hearsay determine my speculation in a significant way–at that point I'd feel less a speculator and more a "leaker," and those guys are honestly annoying).
I'm sure that as more information is revealed my speculation will change. Maybe this pass will be just as bombastic as the first, or maybe it'll be more reserved than I think it will be now. Because of this, I tried to cover as many bases as I could, as each of the above characters (except Gex) has a real chance of inclusion based on how this Pass' composition was determined.
So please, don't throw hate my way or include me in any celebratory "haha in your face my character got in despite what you said" posts just because I gave counterarguments for your character or said that they're not the likeliest in my opinion. I'm sure that'll happen anyways, but whatever.
Regardless, I hope this piece has provided a wider perspective on character speculation. There's truly a lot to consider when it comes to a character's chances, and when there are so many unknowns and hypotheticals at play it can be difficult to look at the wider picture. I believe you can take this general thought process and apply it to speculation as a whole, and not just specifically pertaining to Square Enix. Maybe I'll do so in another piece, but I won't make any promises.
To close, I hope you're all staying well and safe throughout these crazy times. We'll get through this together.
I'll be compiling all of my essays into a master post in about an hour or so, so people can read through all the essays at once if they'd like (and so I can also link to it in my signature as another one of my writing pieces).
Last edited:
Nekoo
Smash Master
As always, your essays are a pleasure to read and enjoy in this mess of a speculation.I had this mostly ready yesterday but stopped work on it and now that things have calmed down I'm just gonna get this out real quick before anything comes up later:
The Second Square Enix ArgumentTo catch up on the series, please refer to:
This time I'll be covering the final two characters in this series, those being a character from the Bravely series and Neku Sakuraba from The World Ends With You, as well as concluding the series with some final thoughts that I've had sitting for weeks since it was one of the first sections I wrote but I've had to save it until now. With that, let's get into it!
- Part 1: Introduction, Nier, and Gex
- Part 2: Final Fantasy, Lara Croft, and Crono
- Part 3: Geno
- Part 4: Sora
It's funny how I'm ending this collection of essays with the series that inspired me to write it in the first place.
Let's start with a small primer on the Bravely series:
Bravely Default originally released in 2012 in Japan. There, it topped the charts, selling 141,529 units in the first week after its release, and sold through 85.68% of its initial stock. It performed much better than its contemporary that released at the same time, Project X Zone, as well as it's predecessor, Final Fantasy: The 4 Heroes of Light. In reporting on this, Silconera noted this to be an incredibly strong performance for a brand new franchise–which we'll find becomes a running trend for the Bravely series. The game wouldn't see release until over a year later in Europe, Australia, and America in 2013 for the former two and 2014 for the latter.
The period between the original Japanese release and the announcement of the English localization was met with much demand from journalists and JRPG fans alike, which ultimately led to the game being localized despite there being no plans initially to do so. The positive Western response honestly surprised the team, with them admitting that they were "deeply moved" by it publicly. An interesting thing to note is that Nintendo picked up the publishing for Bravely Default (and its sequel Bravely Second) in all regions outside of Japan, which makes it similar to Dragon Quest in this way.
The success of the original Bravely Default was so large that it led to Square Enix reevaluating their strategy for Final Fantasy, their breadwinner series. In a 2014 interview following Bravely Default breaking 1 million units sold worldwide, Square Enix President Yosuke Matsuda had this to say about Bravely compared to Final Fantasy:
To reiterate, Bravely Default, a portable game not tied to any major existing series, managed to make Square Enix reconsider how they're handling Final Fantasy, their longest running, best-selling series. That's huge. Needless to say, Bravely Default was a huge success for Square Enix.
So, where did they go from there? A lot of places really.
The original game also received two supplementary books in 2013, two drama CDs with supplementary stories in 2013 and 2014, and a manga that ran from 2015 to 2016, of which two compiled volumes have been released. In addition, three different mobile games have been made for Bravely over the years (continuing to prove the age old rule of all Square Enix series getting a mobile game), those being 2012's Playing Brage, 2015's Bravely Archive (released in 2018 in Western markets), and most recently 2017's Fairy's Effect. Of these, Bravely Archive is the most notable, having surpassed 4 million downloads in Japan and being the only Bravely mobile title released outside of Japan. As of right now, however, Fariy's Effect is the only ongoing game, as both Playing Brage and Bravely Archive were discontinued in 2019. However, Fairy Effect is also set to be discontinued a little over a month from the time of writing, on August 31st, 2020. While the multimedia projects seem to be rather standard for a series popular in Japan, and none of the games really took off all that much, I feel the need to mention these because it shows that the Bravely series has received a steady stream of media throughout the years. Bravely is very much an active series for Square Enix, even if it seems to have been sidelined for the most part.
Most notable is the sequel that the game received, Bravely Second. Talk of a sequel to the original Bravely Default started as early as December 2012, two months after the original game's release. A Final Mix version of the original with added features, Bravely Default: For the Sequel, was announced in August 2013, all but confirming a sequel before it was officially announced in December 2013 (though the trademark registration had been caught by fans in September). Bravely Second released in Japan in 2015 and reached Western markets in 2016. Despite critical acclaim, the game didn't sell as well as its' predecessor, only selling 700,000 units by April 2017, when Bravely Default had reached 1 million units sold in the same time span. Despite this, it did rather well, especially considering JRPGs had yet to take off as they have now. Most recently, the game topped UK sales charts at Number 2, just below The Last of Us 2, in June 2020, just last month at the time of writing, due to a flash sale run by popular retailer Argos. Despite being the weaker of the two Bravely 3DS titles (at least according to series producer Tomoya Asano), people have been exposed to Bravely Second about as much as the original, lending further evidence to the wide exposure people have had to the Bravely series.
However, after 2017, a lot of momentum for the Bravely series seems to stop. No releases, little news, just a group of fans desperately hoping for a Bravely Default 2. You'd think this is where the story ends. The Bravely series was a flash in the pan and has since fizzled into obscurity. Discussion on Bravely in Smash will be consigned to remembering the odd render leaks we've gotten in the past, laughing about it, and moving on to engage in the same circular discussion on Pokémon for the 2,037th time.
Right?
Wrong.
Let's talk about Octopath Traveler.
While at first glance it might seem like Octopath Traveler has absolutely nothing to do with Bravely, I'd like to mention it nonetheless, specifically because it was the next game produced by Asano after Bravely Default and Bravely Second, and is likely responsible for the lull the Bravely series experienced.
Octopath Traveler's announcement pre-dates the Switch's release date, and it was very much set up as an important title for the Switch. Perhaps this explains the game's overwhelming success, with the game selling through 90% of its initial stock and causing Square Enix to apologize twice for a lack of stock to meet demand. Octopath was a huge success for Square Enix, selling 2 million units as of April, doubling the sales of Bravely Default (albeit, with more time and a Windows port–though I would personally say the Windows port speaks to the success of the original Switch release). Considering that Square Enix focusing on the Switch was contingent on Octopath's success, it could be said that Octopath is, in part, responsible for the second Nintendo-Square Enix renaissance we find ourselves in right now.
The reason I mention Octopath is for a couple of reasons.
And then guess what comes next?
- One, Asano admitted it was designed with the shortcomings of Bravely Second in mind, showing a direct link between Bravely and Octopath.
- Two, it continues Asano's hot streak within Square Enix. He's very much become a prominent figure within the company, and I believe this is a fact that ought to be noted in speculation on Bravely
- Third, and most important, the massive success of Octopath proved that there's a significant audience for JRPG games on the Nintendo Switch. Nintendo and Square Enix are very much aware of this.
Bravely Default 2, headlining Nintendo's announcements at the The Game Awards 2019 alongside No More Heroes 3. This streak of Nintendo pushing Bravely Default 2 continues into the March 2020 Direct Mini, where it takes up 1/7th of the English Direct, the most amount of time of any game. A demo releases the same day that Nintendo spams the News tab with notifications about. Nintendo seems to be setting Bravely Default 2 to be the next Octopath Traveler-esque success worldwide, which is what I believe gives it a significant edge as Nintendo could implore Sakurai to include it for promotional reasons. Again, there's a massive audience for JRPG fans on Switch, and what better way to wrap them into buying Fighters Pass 2 than to include a prominent Nintendo-exclusive JRPG series in it?
I also believe that a major mechanic of the game, job switching, is an interesting moveset mechanic that Sakurai has previously expressed interest in. We know he's prone to revisit ideas whenever he can, so I could see him going after Bravely in part due to this as well. Remember, Sakurai weighs a fun moveset equally to, if not more important than recognizability, so the point about Bravely characters not being recognizable enough falls largely moot.
Now, with the Bravely series being established as a strong contender for the coveted Square Enix spot, the question becomes: What character(s) will they choose?
Which is actually kind of a tough question.
I'll start by saying that we'll likely see multiple characters a lá Hero, given that the job switching mechanic of Bravely is universal across all playable party members. In terms of the most prominent choices, I would say they're Edea Lee and Tiz Arrior
To start, Edea is the most popular character in the series, placing highest by far in fan polls (granted, there aren't many of them, nor are any of them significantly large, but she is number 1 on them)
Additionally, she seems to a favorite of the developers and the pseudo-mascot for the Bravely series, as evidenced by her being playable in both Bravely Default and Bravely Second as well as the many Bravely tweets she's prominently featured in:
遅くなってしまいましたが―
— ブレイブリーデフォルトII公式 (@BDFF_OFFICIAL) January 10, 2018
本年もよろしくお願いしますm_ _m
海外サイトにて、2018年の期待するゲームに
オクトパスがランクインしたようです。
チーム一同、がんばります！https://t.co/U6LPBEeNRu pic.twitter.com/7rIAi9C1dJ＼ハッピーメリークリスマス！／ pic.twitter.com/gGDGj13Ley
— ブレイブリーデフォルトII公式 (@BDFF_OFFICIAL) December 23, 2017明けましておめでとうございます！
— ブレイブリーデフォルトII公式 (@BDFF_OFFICIAL) December 31, 2016
本年も、よろしくお願いしまする
m_ _m pic.twitter.com/eijJH7Fyb2ブレイブリー生誕４周年！
— ブレイブリーデフォルトII公式 (@BDFF_OFFICIAL) October 11, 2016
最近は情報に乏しくてごめんなさい。
近々 何かあるかも……！？ pic.twitter.com/F2FBalVoMq
I name Tiz as well given that he is the most popular male character in the series, and like Edea is playable in both Bravely Default and Bravely Second.
Agnès Oblige bears mention for being in the two fake leaks of Bravely in Smash, as well as her prominent story role in Bravely Second.
I also believe that Edea, Tiz, and Agnès bear similar proportions to Adelle, Seth, and Gloria from Bravely Default 2 respectively, which could also allow for Nintendo to integrate characters from the sequel as well.
While Bravely is not as widely speculated for Smash as other Square Enix series, its steady amount of success combined with the set-up its receiving right now makes it a prime competitor for the next Square Enix spot in my opinion.Neku's been around as a fan request in one form or another since the Brawl period, and while he's never been as popular of a pick as Final Fantasy, Geno, or Sora, nor is his series (game?) as popular as juggernauts like Dragon Quest or Lara Croft, I believe there are some recent factors that should lead to a reevaluation of his chances.
To start, for a single game, The World Ends With You has seen a significant amount of re-releases and media appearances, especially for a single game released over a decade ago. The original game was ported to iOS in 2012 (with a shadow re-release in 2015 after it disappeared for a couple of months due to incompatibility with iOS 8), Android in 2014, and the Nintendo Switch in 2018. Main characters Neku, Shiki, Beat, Rhyme, and Joshua appeared prominently in Kingdom Hearts: Dream Drop Distance, with Neku showing up in one of the earliest trailers for the game.
Just recently, an anime adaptation of the original game was announced (and is actually being handled by a set of seemingly competent studios instead of A-1).It's also speculated that the The World Ends With You universe will play a larger role in the Kingdom Hearts sieres going forward, as Sora ends up in a different version of Shibuya with what seems to be TWEWY's 104 Tower. While this is unsubstantiated, I believe it's worth mentioning regardless.
You don't make an entire anime series for a franchise you have no plans of continuing.
Notable also is the constant remarks from developers of the series about their desire to make a sequel. The game's director, Tatsuya Kando, expressed interest for such in a 2009 interview, and he's been echoed by Character Designer Tetsuya Normura in in 2010, and most recently 2018 when he said that it was his "intention of making this [TWEWY Final Mix] [his] last time working with the original game."
Remember that Sakurai and Normura have a very strong business relationship, if not a friendship, which could be a significant edge for Neku.
While The World Ends With You franchise has only seen one game released so far, this one game has managed to live on for over a decade, and is carried by prominent members of Square Enix to this day. The announcement of the recent anime adaptation shows that Square Enix very much still cares for TWEWY, which could lead to them pushing for Neku's inclusion in Smash.In conclusion, Square Enix and Nintendo's corporate relationship seems to be stronger than ever, which, when combined with a precedent for negotiation on Smash DLC, would streamline negotiations for a Square Enix character significantly. Square Enix still has a variety of iconic series and characters that, for one reason or another, would be beneficial for Nintendo to include in Smash Bros.
Assuming we get a second Square Enix character, I'd rate the above character's likelihoods as such:
Bravely ≥ 2B/Nier > Neku ≥ Final Fantasy > Sora = Geno = Lara Croft > Crono
What about Gex you ask? Oh yeah. Uh...
- Nier and Bravely are two of Square Enix's major franchises as of the moment, with Nier seeing a large internal push within the company and Bravely seeing a large push by Nintendo.
- Both The World Ends With You and Final Fantasy have seen large promotion recently, which could hypothetically lead to Square pushing these series in Smash.
- Sora, Geno, and Lara, while worthy of inclusion in their own rights, all have something holding them back.
- Sora has the absolute wildcard that is Disney to consider, and I'm not going to try to predict their actions. I personally lean towards negotiations failing for one reason or another.
- Geno has overwhelming popularity, but also has to go through Square Enix, who seems content to let him live on in PNGs and Mii Costumes. I call his chances on a 50/50 coin flip that could work out either way depending on how strong his fan demand is perceived by Nintendo and Square Enix.
- Lara Croft, while an iconic character in gaming as a whole, has to go through the additional processes that entail working with a Western company to include a character in Smash. I simply don't know if Nintendo and Sakurai would go for that, especially when significant fan demand does not exist and Square Enix doesn't seem as willing to work with Nintendo on her inclusion as Microsoft was for Banjo & Kazooie's inclusion.
- Chrono, while coming from one of the most revered games of the 16 bit era, doesn't have much traction going for his series currently. While not a kill blow for his chances, this creates significant doubt when Square could use the slot to promote one of their active series or a more popular character.
Bravely ≥ 2B/Nier > Neku ≥ Final Fantasy > Sora = Geno = Chrono ≥ Lara Croft >>> Gex
Sorry Gex fans.
Of course, this is all assuming we do get a second Square Enix character. As of right now, I believe we know too little about Pass 2 to properly speculate as to how it will look. I personally believe this will be a more reserved pass compared to our last one, and will focus more on first parties and third party series closely associated with Smash, but that's simply based off the discrepancy between starting with Joker and starting with Min Min (and some things I've heard here and there, but I try not to let hearsay determine my speculation in a significant way–at that point I'd feel less a speculator and more a "leaker," and those guys are honestly annoying).
I'm sure that as more information is revealed my speculation will change. Maybe this pass will be just as bombastic as the first, or maybe it'll be more reserved than I think it will be now. Because of this, I tried to cover as many bases as I could, as each of the above characters (except Gex) has a real chance of inclusion based on how this Pass' composition was determined.
So please, don't throw hate my way or include me in any celebratory "haha in your face my character got in despite what you said" posts just because I gave counterarguments for your character or said that they're not the likeliest in my opinion. I'm sure that'll happen anyways, but whatever.
Regardless, I hope this piece has provided a wider perspective on character speculation. There's truly a lot to consider when it comes to a character's chances, and when there are so many unknowns and hypotheticals at play it can be difficult to look at the wider picture. I believe you can take this general thought process and apply it to speculation as a whole, and not just specifically pertaining to Square Enix. Maybe I'll do so in another piece, but I won't make any promises.
To close, I hope you're all staying well and safe throughout these crazy times. We'll get through this together.
I'll be compiling all of my essays into a master post in about an hour or so, so people can read through all the essays at once if they'd like (and so I can also link to it in my signature as another one of my writing pieces).
DaybreakHorizon
Beauty in the Chaos
This has basically been confirmed by this article.
I just don't think anyone expected Nintendo to take this long to adapt.
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PeridotGX
Smash Hero
I just realized that one of the reasons we thought a direct was inevitable - the lack of 1st party games on the calendar - is invalid. The Famicom Detective Club remake is planned for a 2020 release, so Japan (the audience to which Nintendo caters too most) still has something soon.
i can't believe it took two years for the chairs to pay off
Last edited:
Professor Pumpkaboo
Lady Layton| Trap Queen♥
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Thats no match for Adachis full screen super
Last edited:
Rie Sonomura
fly octo fly
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YES NEKUI had this mostly ready yesterday but stopped work on it and now that things have calmed down I'm just gonna get this out real quick before anything comes up later:
The Second Square Enix ArgumentTo catch up on the series, please refer to:
This time I'll be covering the final two characters in this series, those being a character from the Bravely series and Neku Sakuraba from The World Ends With You, as well as concluding the series with some final thoughts that I've had sitting for weeks since it was one of the first sections I wrote but I've had to save it until now. With that, let's get into it!
- Part 1: Introduction, Nier, and Gex
- Part 2: Final Fantasy, Lara Croft, and Crono
- Part 3: Geno
- Part 4: Sora
It's funny how I'm ending this collection of essays with the series that inspired me to write it in the first place.
Let's start with a small primer on the Bravely series:
Bravely Default originally released in 2012 in Japan. There, it topped the charts, selling 141,529 units in the first week after its release, and sold through 85.68% of its initial stock. It performed much better than its contemporary that released at the same time, Project X Zone, as well as it's predecessor, Final Fantasy: The 4 Heroes of Light. In reporting on this, Silconera noted this to be an incredibly strong performance for a brand new franchise–which we'll find becomes a running trend for the Bravely series. The game wouldn't see release until over a year later in Europe, Australia, and America in 2013 for the former two and 2014 for the latter.
The period between the original Japanese release and the announcement of the English localization was met with much demand from journalists and JRPG fans alike, which ultimately led to the game being localized despite there being no plans initially to do so. The positive Western response honestly surprised the team, with them admitting that they were "deeply moved" by it publicly. An interesting thing to note is that Nintendo picked up the publishing for Bravely Default (and its sequel Bravely Second) in all regions outside of Japan, which makes it similar to Dragon Quest in this way.
The success of the original Bravely Default was so large that it led to Square Enix reevaluating their strategy for Final Fantasy, their breadwinner series. In a 2014 interview following Bravely Default breaking 1 million units sold worldwide, Square Enix President Yosuke Matsuda had this to say about Bravely compared to Final Fantasy:
To reiterate, Bravely Default, a portable game not tied to any major existing series, managed to make Square Enix reconsider how they're handling Final Fantasy, their longest running, best-selling series. That's huge. Needless to say, Bravely Default was a huge success for Square Enix.
So, where did they go from there? A lot of places really.
The original game also received two supplementary books in 2013, two drama CDs with supplementary stories in 2013 and 2014, and a manga that ran from 2015 to 2016, of which two compiled volumes have been released. In addition, three different mobile games have been made for Bravely over the years (continuing to prove the age old rule of all Square Enix series getting a mobile game), those being 2012's Playing Brage, 2015's Bravely Archive (released in 2018 in Western markets), and most recently 2017's Fairy's Effect. Of these, Bravely Archive is the most notable, having surpassed 4 million downloads in Japan and being the only Bravely mobile title released outside of Japan. As of right now, however, Fariy's Effect is the only ongoing game, as both Playing Brage and Bravely Archive were discontinued in 2019. However, Fairy Effect is also set to be discontinued a little over a month from the time of writing, on August 31st, 2020. While the multimedia projects seem to be rather standard for a series popular in Japan, and none of the games really took off all that much, I feel the need to mention these because it shows that the Bravely series has received a steady stream of media throughout the years. Bravely is very much an active series for Square Enix, even if it seems to have been sidelined for the most part.
Most notable is the sequel that the game received, Bravely Second. Talk of a sequel to the original Bravely Default started as early as December 2012, two months after the original game's release. A Final Mix version of the original with added features, Bravely Default: For the Sequel, was announced in August 2013, all but confirming a sequel before it was officially announced in December 2013 (though the trademark registration had been caught by fans in September). Bravely Second released in Japan in 2015 and reached Western markets in 2016. Despite critical acclaim, the game didn't sell as well as its' predecessor, only selling 700,000 units by April 2017, when Bravely Default had reached 1 million units sold in the same time span. Despite this, it did rather well, especially considering JRPGs had yet to take off as they have now. Most recently, the game topped UK sales charts at Number 2, just below The Last of Us 2, in June 2020, just last month at the time of writing, due to a flash sale run by popular retailer Argos. Despite being the weaker of the two Bravely 3DS titles (at least according to series producer Tomoya Asano), people have been exposed to Bravely Second about as much as the original, lending further evidence to the wide exposure people have had to the Bravely series.
However, after 2017, a lot of momentum for the Bravely series seems to stop. No releases, little news, just a group of fans desperately hoping for a Bravely Default 2. You'd think this is where the story ends. The Bravely series was a flash in the pan and has since fizzled into obscurity. Discussion on Bravely in Smash will be consigned to remembering the odd render leaks we've gotten in the past, laughing about it, and moving on to engage in the same circular discussion on Pokémon for the 2,037th time.
Right?
Wrong.
Let's talk about Octopath Traveler.
While at first glance it might seem like Octopath Traveler has absolutely nothing to do with Bravely, I'd like to mention it nonetheless, specifically because it was the next game produced by Asano after Bravely Default and Bravely Second, and is likely responsible for the lull the Bravely series experienced.
Octopath Traveler's announcement pre-dates the Switch's release date, and it was very much set up as an important title for the Switch. Perhaps this explains the game's overwhelming success, with the game selling through 90% of its initial stock and causing Square Enix to apologize twice for a lack of stock to meet demand. Octopath was a huge success for Square Enix, selling 2 million units as of April, doubling the sales of Bravely Default (albeit, with more time and a Windows port–though I would personally say the Windows port speaks to the success of the original Switch release). Considering that Square Enix focusing on the Switch was contingent on Octopath's success, it could be said that Octopath is, in part, responsible for the second Nintendo-Square Enix renaissance we find ourselves in right now.
The reason I mention Octopath is for a couple of reasons.
And then guess what comes next?
- One, Asano admitted it was designed with the shortcomings of Bravely Second in mind, showing a direct link between Bravely and Octopath.
- Two, it continues Asano's hot streak within Square Enix. He's very much become a prominent figure within the company, and I believe this is a fact that ought to be noted in speculation on Bravely
- Third, and most important, the massive success of Octopath proved that there's a significant audience for JRPG games on the Nintendo Switch. Nintendo and Square Enix are very much aware of this.
Bravely Default 2, headlining Nintendo's announcements at the The Game Awards 2019 alongside No More Heroes 3. This streak of Nintendo pushing Bravely Default 2 continues into the March 2020 Direct Mini, where it takes up 1/7th of the English Direct, the most amount of time of any game. A demo releases the same day that Nintendo spams the News tab with notifications about. Nintendo seems to be setting Bravely Default 2 to be the next Octopath Traveler-esque success worldwide, which is what I believe gives it a significant edge as Nintendo could implore Sakurai to include it for promotional reasons. Again, there's a massive audience for JRPG fans on Switch, and what better way to wrap them into buying Fighters Pass 2 than to include a prominent Nintendo-exclusive JRPG series in it?
I also believe that a major mechanic of the game, job switching, is an interesting moveset mechanic that Sakurai has previously expressed interest in. We know he's prone to revisit ideas whenever he can, so I could see him going after Bravely in part due to this as well. Remember, Sakurai weighs a fun moveset equally to, if not more important than recognizability, so the point about Bravely characters not being recognizable enough falls largely moot.
Now, with the Bravely series being established as a strong contender for the coveted Square Enix spot, the question becomes: What character(s) will they choose?
Which is actually kind of a tough question.
I'll start by saying that we'll likely see multiple characters a lá Hero, given that the job switching mechanic of Bravely is universal across all playable party members. In terms of the most prominent choices, I would say they're Edea Lee and Tiz Arrior
To start, Edea is the most popular character in the series, placing highest by far in fan polls (granted, there aren't many of them, nor are any of them significantly large, but she is number 1 on them)
Additionally, she seems to a favorite of the developers and the pseudo-mascot for the Bravely series, as evidenced by her being playable in both Bravely Default and Bravely Second as well as the many Bravely tweets she's prominently featured in:
遅くなってしまいましたが―
— ブレイブリーデフォルトII公式 (@BDFF_OFFICIAL) January 10, 2018
本年もよろしくお願いしますm_ _m
海外サイトにて、2018年の期待するゲームに
オクトパスがランクインしたようです。
チーム一同、がんばります！https://t.co/U6LPBEeNRu pic.twitter.com/7rIAi9C1dJ＼ハッピーメリークリスマス！／ pic.twitter.com/gGDGj13Ley
— ブレイブリーデフォルトII公式 (@BDFF_OFFICIAL) December 23, 2017明けましておめでとうございます！
— ブレイブリーデフォルトII公式 (@BDFF_OFFICIAL) December 31, 2016
本年も、よろしくお願いしまする
m_ _m pic.twitter.com/eijJH7Fyb2ブレイブリー生誕４周年！
— ブレイブリーデフォルトII公式 (@BDFF_OFFICIAL) October 11, 2016
最近は情報に乏しくてごめんなさい。
近々 何かあるかも……！？ pic.twitter.com/F2FBalVoMq
I name Tiz as well given that he is the most popular male character in the series, and like Edea is playable in both Bravely Default and Bravely Second.
Agnès Oblige bears mention for being in the two fake leaks of Bravely in Smash, as well as her prominent story role in Bravely Second.
I also believe that Edea, Tiz, and Agnès bear similar proportions to Adelle, Seth, and Gloria from Bravely Default 2 respectively, which could also allow for Nintendo to integrate characters from the sequel as well.
While Bravely is not as widely speculated for Smash as other Square Enix series, its steady amount of success combined with the set-up its receiving right now makes it a prime competitor for the next Square Enix spot in my opinion.Neku's been around as a fan request in one form or another since the Brawl period, and while he's never been as popular of a pick as Final Fantasy, Geno, or Sora, nor is his series (game?) as popular as juggernauts like Dragon Quest or Lara Croft, I believe there are some recent factors that should lead to a reevaluation of his chances.
To start, for a single game, The World Ends With You has seen a significant amount of re-releases and media appearances, especially for a single game released over a decade ago. The original game was ported to iOS in 2012 (with a shadow re-release in 2015 after it disappeared for a couple of months due to incompatibility with iOS 8), Android in 2014, and the Nintendo Switch in 2018. Main characters Neku, Shiki, Beat, Rhyme, and Joshua appeared prominently in Kingdom Hearts: Dream Drop Distance, with Neku showing up in one of the earliest trailers for the game.
Just recently, an anime adaptation of the original game was announced (and is actually being handled by a set of seemingly competent studios instead of A-1).It's also speculated that the The World Ends With You universe will play a larger role in the Kingdom Hearts sieres going forward, as Sora ends up in a different version of Shibuya with what seems to be TWEWY's 104 Tower. While this is unsubstantiated, I believe it's worth mentioning regardless.
You don't make an entire anime series for a franchise you have no plans of continuing.
Notable also is the constant remarks from developers of the series about their desire to make a sequel. The game's director, Tatsuya Kando, expressed interest for such in a 2009 interview, and he's been echoed by Character Designer Tetsuya Normura in in 2010, and most recently 2018 when he said that it was his "intention of making this [TWEWY Final Mix] [his] last time working with the original game."
Remember that Sakurai and Normura have a very strong business relationship, if not a friendship, which could be a significant edge for Neku.
While The World Ends With You franchise has only seen one game released so far, this one game has managed to live on for over a decade, and is carried by prominent members of Square Enix to this day. The announcement of the recent anime adaptation shows that Square Enix very much still cares for TWEWY, which could lead to them pushing for Neku's inclusion in Smash.In conclusion, Square Enix and Nintendo's corporate relationship seems to be stronger than ever, which, when combined with a precedent for negotiation on Smash DLC, would streamline negotiations for a Square Enix character significantly. Square Enix still has a variety of iconic series and characters that, for one reason or another, would be beneficial for Nintendo to include in Smash Bros.
Assuming we get a second Square Enix character, I'd rate the above character's likelihoods as such:
Bravely ≥ 2B/Nier > Neku ≥ Final Fantasy > Sora = Geno = Lara Croft > Crono
What about Gex you ask? Oh yeah. Uh...
- Nier and Bravely are two of Square Enix's major franchises as of the moment, with Nier seeing a large internal push within the company and Bravely seeing a large push by Nintendo.
- Both The World Ends With You and Final Fantasy have seen large promotion recently, which could hypothetically lead to Square pushing these series in Smash.
- Sora, Geno, and Lara, while worthy of inclusion in their own rights, all have something holding them back.
- Sora has the absolute wildcard that is Disney to consider, and I'm not going to try to predict their actions. I personally lean towards negotiations failing for one reason or another.
- Geno has overwhelming popularity, but also has to go through Square Enix, who seems content to let him live on in PNGs and Mii Costumes. I call his chances on a 50/50 coin flip that could work out either way depending on how strong his fan demand is perceived by Nintendo and Square Enix.
- Lara Croft, while an iconic character in gaming as a whole, has to go through the additional processes that entail working with a Western company to include a character in Smash. I simply don't know if Nintendo and Sakurai would go for that, especially when significant fan demand does not exist and Square Enix doesn't seem as willing to work with Nintendo on her inclusion as Microsoft was for Banjo & Kazooie's inclusion.
- Chrono, while coming from one of the most revered games of the 16 bit era, doesn't have much traction going for his series currently. While not a kill blow for his chances, this creates significant doubt when Square could use the slot to promote one of their active series or a more popular character.
Bravely ≥ 2B/Nier > Neku ≥ Final Fantasy > Sora = Geno = Chrono ≥ Lara Croft >>> Gex
Sorry Gex fans.
Of course, this is all assuming we do get a second Square Enix character. As of right now, I believe we know too little about Pass 2 to properly speculate as to how it will look. I personally believe this will be a more reserved pass compared to our last one, and will focus more on first parties and third party series closely associated with Smash, but that's simply based off the discrepancy between starting with Joker and starting with Min Min (and some things I've heard here and there, but I try not to let hearsay determine my speculation in a significant way–at that point I'd feel less a speculator and more a "leaker," and those guys are honestly annoying).
I'm sure that as more information is revealed my speculation will change. Maybe this pass will be just as bombastic as the first, or maybe it'll be more reserved than I think it will be now. Because of this, I tried to cover as many bases as I could, as each of the above characters (except Gex) has a real chance of inclusion based on how this Pass' composition was determined.
So please, don't throw hate my way or include me in any celebratory "haha in your face my character got in despite what you said" posts just because I gave counterarguments for your character or said that they're not the likeliest in my opinion. I'm sure that'll happen anyways, but whatever.
Regardless, I hope this piece has provided a wider perspective on character speculation. There's truly a lot to consider when it comes to a character's chances, and when there are so many unknowns and hypotheticals at play it can be difficult to look at the wider picture. I believe you can take this general thought process and apply it to speculation as a whole, and not just specifically pertaining to Square Enix. Maybe I'll do so in another piece, but I won't make any promises.
To close, I hope you're all staying well and safe throughout these crazy times. We'll get through this together.
I'll be compiling all of my essays into a master post in about an hour or so, so people can read through all the essays at once if they'd like (and so I can also link to it in my signature as another one of my writing pieces).
THANK YOU FOR THIS FOOD
also, Riku ends up in Shinjuku at the same time Sora winds up in Shibuya. At the end of A New Day, which is setting the stage for TWEWY 2, Shinjuku is erased by a phenomenon Joshua calls an “Inversion”, and Hype-Chan (the girl with Shiki’s Mr. Mew doll, red and white clothes and headphones) is the only survivor of this incident. KH4 (or whatever it’ll be called) may involve Sora and Riku in a KH-fied version of the reaper’s game with some elements from a potential TWEWY2
Shroob
Sup?
Also, big F for the F-Zero fans who got trolled hella hard by the Twitter account. Y'all don't deserve **** like that.
LiveStudioAudience
Smash Master
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The idea that Nintendo has the kind of resource infrastructure problem within its marketing/promotional department and that these partner-presentations are simply the best possibly temporary solution to them is, oddly enough, far more comforting to me than the notion that someone at the company legitimately thinks these work better than straight Directs. It would also explain why something like Orgami King has been doing its own thing with promotion because its easier to put it out on its own PR material them trying to tie with most other game/s. Heck it could explain why it got the Treehouse presentation with Bakugan, as it may have essentially had its commercial/gameplay footage ready for a showcase.
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DaybreakHorizon
Beauty in the Chaos
I'm just glad I managed to get it out before anything crazy happens.
At least now I have some plausible deniability regardless of which character it actually is.
cmbsfm
Smash Champion
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To be honest, I’m not really that bummed about the whole direct stuff, but I am really upset about that F-Zero twitter account being fake. I was really excited about it, I’ve wanted another F-Zero for a long time. I think it’s the first time one of these troll attempts has legitimately pissed me off.
-crump-
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I still don’t think it will happen
BUT
I’m ride or die for Demi-fiend now, let’s get this macca gamers
BUT
I’m ride or die for Demi-fiend now, let’s get this macca gamers
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GoodGrief741
Smash Legend
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I do hope that if they really have nothing left for 2020, that Nintendo at least has the balls to localize (not even dub, just sub) the Detective Club remake, give us something to play.
Probably a pipe dream though, smh at Nintendo thinking visual novels aren't viable in freaking 2020.
Gentlepanda
Meme Maestro
Cutie Gwen
Lovely warrior
What was his tagline be, DEMIFIEND CHALLENGES YOU TO A DUEL? It'd be hilarious to see Nintendo only P5 fans have to accept SMT's cool
3BitSaurus
Smash Master
The worst part is the way people got trolled means it's practically impossible to talk about it without going into "bad boys and girls" territory.
Flyboy
Smash Hero
Using Daybreak's logic for a Bravely character (very good essay btw, I'm glad you got to finish it up before anything crazy happened) I think it's safe to say that a Shin Megami Tensei character is actually on the table, especially with Atlus already in negotiations thanks to Joker. Demifiend getting in would be a hell of a plot twist and yet with the Nintendo ties, two major releases coming to Switch, and Atlus's support of the platform, it's not unreasonable.
Animegamingnerd
Smash Ace
As much as I wanted to be a sign we were getting one, how it was revealed to be fake was ****ing hilarious.
Shroob
Sup?
I mean, unless the Twitter account was hacked, it started posting incredibly NSFL content so
Dalek_Kolt
Smash Master
"Yo Atlus, wen P5 for Switch?"
"Instructions unclear, here's SMT III and V"
"Instructions unclear, here's SMT III and V"
Rie Sonomura
fly octo fly
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Whoa whoa wait
NSFL??? As in it’s NOT just your run of the mill porn but WORSE stuff?
now im A N G E R Y
PLANTMAN
Smash Journeyman
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We already know who the 5 fighters are without this
they come from a video game
that’s all
Professor Pumpkaboo
Lady Layton| Trap Queen♥
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its just the same post as before
Leave my uncle alone.
Shroob
Sup?
"Hello, low-paid Intern, can you please tell me what rumors you've heard in the company? What do you mean it could put your job at risk? We're starving out here for news.... What do you mean you'll be starving if you don't have a job?"
SNEKeater
Smash Master
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What if they add the new protag? I could see that.
FP11: SMTV main character
kylexv
Smash Master
^ Me when I watched the direct at work and thought about coming here ^
(I hate being wrong in the worst ways)
Also, SMT fans are over the moon, so that's cool.
7NATOR
Smash Master
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They've given us Fake Leaks Too much, they must pay the Consequences
I figure that When on a Call with someone, Nintendo is Monitoring the Call. I guess that would make sense.
Nintendo gives real leaks. Fake leakers give fake leaks. Even real leakers sometimes give fake leaks.
PK-remling Fire
Smash Ace
I know that Demifiend is a popular pick here, but I personally wouldn't mind the SMT V protag if it meant getting a rep for the series.
As far as I'm concerned the real stars of SMT are the demons, so as long as the character has demon summoning as a core part of their moveset, that'll be enough for me.
As far as I'm concerned the real stars of SMT are the demons, so as long as the character has demon summoning as a core part of their moveset, that'll be enough for me.
Lukingordex
No Custom Titles Allowed
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Woah, I just hope they don't stick with this Direct format. Underwhelming isn't enough to describe it.
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