Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Droodle]

Well, overall I was disappointed by the direct "mini micro edition". But still the Nocturne Remastered and SMT trailers were pretty nice to have, shame that a lot of people transferred their negative mood for the entire direct, to the announcement of those . It probably would have been better to start off with that rather than end. I dunno why they cut out Ryza and Sakuna, because they looked way more appealing than something like Rogue Company or WWE. Pretty shocked that no BD 2 was shown off, same with NMH 3. Now I'm expecting those games to have their own showcases in August.

I was kinda hoping Geno would be announced for Smash today (before the "mini" was announced) due to some insiders talking about him yesterday (though I was still cautious, and yeah they did end up joking about it). I guess now I'm expecting a September direct, but I have 0 clue who the character will end up being (all that Geno talk probably means nothing). Which is honestly more exciting for me anyways, so I don't mind. I don't like it when characters are considered "locks" due to big name leakers hinting at them around the time of a Smash announcement.

But at the very least now I won't ever have to hear about how "Gamestop leaked GENO for Smash!!!" in the Geno thread anymore, which is at the very least a huge plus.

 

[Diddy Kong]

The best thing Nintendo related for me the last few months was DKC being on the SNES application on Switch. Lasted me a few hours. Now I want DKC2 already.

They should really showcase something if they wanna keep it up however. Without a doubt a new Mario game is probably in the making, or the rumoured remake collection, BotW2 also hasn't been even mentioned since it's initial reveal, same with Metroid Prime 4 which only got the news it needed a total overhaul because of the "bad quality" not living up to Nintendo's standards... I'd be in pure extase if we would get a new Donkey Kong game, but for now, I'd settle with what's confirmed.

So far, it doesn't really seem to look like the Switch will hold on strong against Sony and Microsoft. Which is a shame, cause the earlier days of the Switch seemed extremely promising.

Also, is the new Paper Mario anything good? Am reading mixed reviews so far. Last Paper Mario I played was Super Paper Mario, and I loved it. Only played that one, and The Thousand Year Door.

 

[TwiceEXE]

But at the very least now I won't ever have to hear about how "Gamestop leaked GENO for Smash!!!" in the Geno thread anymore, which is at the very least a huge plus.

Not to rain on your parade, but I would bet it's going into the Evidence.zip that shows Geno is in.

 

[Animegamingnerd]

Not to rain on your parade, but I would bet it's going into the Evidence.zip that shows Geno is in.

There are still CacoMallow believers out there, they will hold to that gamestop mistake for as long as they can.

 

[7NATOR]

Actually I Got another Question

Who exactly at Nintendo is Choosing the Fighters. I assume it's not the Interns choosing them. Is it the President of NOJ, The President of NOA, is it all of them. Perhaps it could be the Shareholders

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Here's the entire compilation for anyone who wants to read the entire essay series in one post (complete with a new foreword introducing the collection).

I present to you all:

The Second Ultimate Square Enix Argument​

In this series I cover a variety of Square Enix characters and discuss their chances at inclusion in Fighters Pass 2 of Super Smash Brothers Ultimate using a combination of evidence, inferences, and personal opinion. This is my largest series of essays to date, with over 12,600 words split over 9 characters. I hope these essays are not only read for enjoyment, but are also seen as compilations of sources with which to debate a character's chances.

It's completely okay if you disagree with me on any of these characters, and I would encourage everyone to look at the sources within my arguments and come to their own conclusions. I would love to discuss interpretations of different articles, or be notified if there's a primary or significant secondary source I missed that could contribute to an argument. As a whole, I hope these essays contribute positively to speculation, or at the very least introduce new concepts into our little corner of the internet.

Spoiler: Table of Contents

Spoiler: Preface

Around a year and a half ago I wrote The Ultimate Square Enix Character Argument, my first major speculation essay. Inspired by the large discussion surrounding the well spread rumors that a Square Enix character would be included in Smash, I included 5 miniature essays on who I believed the Square Enix character could be, with a heavy focus on Dragon Quest, Sora, and Geno. Since then, I've since written 8 other pieces on a variety of different topics, from strange characters to speculation culture and gained a lot more experience in both essay writing and speculation. My original Square Enix Argument is quite messy to say the least. Long block paragraphs, run on sentences, comma misplacements, and more...I was a much worse writer then, and part of the reason I'm writing this piece is to prove to myself that I can do better.


This purpose of this piece is to revisit the argument about a Square Enix character and the potential of a second Square Enix character being added as DLC. This argument will not only address the change in Square Enix speculation following Hero's inclusion in Fighters Pass 1, but also how speculation has changed in the wake of other announcements. This piece will probably contain more personal speculation and theories than my previous pieces, but I'll make sure to mark where I do so for reference. Otherwise, I hope this piece contributes to speculation in a meaningful way, and provides some insights for everyone to take into account going forward.

Spoiler: Introduction

"Gee Square Enix, how come Nintendo lets you have TWO DLC characters in Smash Ultimate?" the other companies ask, jealousy clearly apparent in their voices.

Ever since the surprising success of Octopath Traveler, Nintendo and Square Enix have reached a second golden age in their corporate relations. To use less hyperbole, they've been closer than they have been in recent years, with the closest comparisons being the DS-3DS and 16-bit eras. In June 2018, prior to the large push of Square Enix games on Nintendo consoles, Square Enix announced both a desire to create more original games on the Switch and the creation of a company division to do just that. And clearly since then, Square Enix support of the Switch has been immense. To name titles that have come out since Octopath Traveler:

• The World Ends With You: Final Remix*
• Dragon Quest Builders 2* (preceded by Builders* approximately 3-4 months before Octopath*)
• Chocobo's Mystery Dungeon
• Oninaki
• Ports of Final Fantasy VII, VIII, IV, X, X-2, and XII
• Dragon Quest XIS: Echoes of an Elusive Age Definitive Edition*
• Enhanced ports of Dragon Quest*, Dragon Quest II*, and Dragon Quest III*
• Romancing SaGa 2 and 3
• Collection of Mana (containing Final Fantasy Adventure/Mystic Quest, Secret of Mana, and the first English localization of Trials of Mana)
• most recently, the Trials of Mana remake
• and upcoming, Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles Remastered

While many of these games are multiplatform alongside PS4 and Xbox, it's worth noting that all games accompanied by an asterisk* were published by Nintendo outside of Japan. Also, while Nintendo is known to take publishing rights for many series, historically they've only done so prominently for two companies: Level-5 (primarily during the DS era) and Square Enix (to this day).

So, Nintendo and Square Enix have a whole lot of corporate synergy right now; at least more so than other companies who simply put games on Nintendo platforms. This would certainly facilitate negotiations if they were to occur. Negotiations would be further facilitated by the fact that a majority of significant figures have already been brought to the table at one point or another. Tetsuya Normura, director of The World Ends With You, Kingdom Hearts, and most recently Final Fantasy 7 Remake, worked with Sakurai on Cloud in Sm4sh and Ultimate (assuming negotiations were concurrent as rumored), and Yuji Horii, director of the Dragon Quest series, worked with Sakurai on Hero in Fighters Pass 1. Corporate leadership would have played a role in both rounds of negotiations, which means that there's precedent, and from that a set process Nintendo could rely on to streamline negotiations to get a Square Enix character or characters on the list for a potential Fighters Pass 2 inclusion.

And before anyone says "but tehponycorn! square enix is stingy!" we all know that's not the truth, so don't even start.

I'll take time to address the counter argument of Nintendo being close to a lot of companies. This is certainly true, but most lack the consistency and notability of Nintendo and Square Enix's relationship. Bandai Namco and Koei Tecmo are both worth mentioning, as they've helped Nintendo work on games internally. Microsoft has been good about sharing exclusives such as Cuphead and the Ori series, and Capcom's port frenzy of the Mega Man, Resident Evil, and Devil May Cry series, with their port of Devil May Cry 3 being the definitive edition, certainly bring to mind Square Enix's similar port frenzy. These companies are certainly worth noting in speculation, but don't necessarily take away from Square Enix's chance of getting their character(s) on the list(tm). If the end goal is simply getting on the list for Sakurai and/or Nintendo to choose, then the limiting factor is simply what characters Nintendo can/can't negotiate for. Theoretically, Nintendo could negotiate for as many characters as they'd like. The reason I turn to Square Enix specifically is the fact that they still have a multitude of iconic series and characters to draw from that would generate significant hype, corporate promotion, and sales in Fighters Pass 2.

So, the question, "why a Square Enix character again" could be simplified down to ease of negotiations and Square Enix still having characters Nintendo wants in Smash. So then, our next question becomes: Who?

Spoiler: Nier (Automata)

I've previously written about 2B from Nier: Automata in long form, and my arguments in that essay hold up for the most part (at the very least, better than my "Ultimate" Square Enix Character Argument). I'm not going to reinvent the wheel, so this section will serve more so as an addendum to my previous essay as well as introducing the possibility of another character from the Nier series. Please read that essay for a good background on 2B and her chances in Smash, especially despite a lack of Nintendo appearances.

To add on to my 2B essay:

• Nier Automata and NieR: Replicant are headlining the Worldwide release SiNoAlice, which, while also made by Yoko Taro, shows the reach of the Nier brand as well as Yoko Taro's influence within the company.
• Final Fantasy XIV is gearing up for it's second crossover raid story, following off of the success of the first.
  • As an addendum to my argument on costume alteration, while the 2B costume in FFXIV increases the butt size of characters, it also seems to increase the skirt length (compare this picture of FFXIV to her official character art and you'll see the difference–I will acknowledge this could be a psuedo, however, as 2P does not have this change). Regardless, this shows costume alteration is possible.
• Finally, the Nier series has recently seen two major announcements in NieR Replicant ver 1.22474487139..., which is "much more" than a remaster of the original NieR: Replicant for the modern generation of consoles, and NieR: Reincarnation, a mobile title, which seems inevitable for Square Enix series canonical to the series.

So, as a whole, the Nier series is schmovin'.

No? Okay.

Regardless, the internal push for the Nier series from Square Enix seems to continue even now, almost half a year after my original essay, and it doesn't seem to be stopping anytime soon. If given the chance, I could definitely see Square Enix attempting to get the Nier series in Smash via 2B, or Nier.



This guy.

Yes, his name is actually Nier.

He's the protagonist of NieR Replicant, which, as previously mentioned, is receiving a significant remaster. If Square Enix is going solely for promotion, it's possible they would push for Nier over 2B during negotiations. For what it's worth, in his article on Nier Automata he also wrote highly about NieR Replicant, so it's possible Sakurai would have no preference for one given character from the Nier series, so long as the series itself is represented. This is nothing more than speculation, however. Especially considering that Sakurai has repeatedly said the games he writes about have no bearing on a character's chances in Smash.

Nier also has had a net zero appearances on Nintendo consoles, however, so I don't even know if any technicalities can be made for him.

Ultimately, the chances of 2B and Nier depend on how much Square wants to push the series and the extent of the technicalities Nintendo and Sakurai would make to include a character from the Nier series. I'll keep my stance that 2B and Nier are very much in a similar position to Joker in Fighters Pass, wherein either of them are a dark horse pick that is also entirely reasonable. At the very least, I'd definitely keep my eyes on the Nier series going forward.

Spoiler: Final Fantasy

Similar to my last argument post, I'm going to be discussing Final Fantasy as a series since there are so many characters in the series.

Final Fantasy is by and far Square Enix's largest series, surpassing around 154 million units sold as of this April. For reference, that puts it in between Minecraft and Grand Theft Auto V in terms of lifetime sales, and Number 10 on the list of best-selling video game series (counting Mario subseries as one). IGN made a neat little infographic (albeit with some incorrect information) to compare the sales of Final Fantasy to Square Enix's other major RPG series:

The Final Fantasy series is incredibly large, and shows no signs of stopping soon. Mobile series tie-in Final Fantasy Brave Exvius recently received a spin-off that released worldwide in March, the series has seen a large amount of games prominently ported to the Nintendo Switch, with a remaster of Crystal Chronicles coming to the system alongside PS4 soon. I think something else big happened too, but I seem to be forgetting...

Spoiler

Oh yeah. That happened. And it was huge. 3.5 million units sold in three days huge.

Final Fantasy 7 Remake was one of the largest game releases of the year, and is arguably one of the largest game releases of the generation given the demand for a remake of Final Fantasy 7 that's developed over the years. I'd put the game up there with Kingdom Hearts 3 and Half Life: Alyx given the intense demand and large expectations surrounding it. Despite some controversy over the ending (typical Normura, amirite?), it did incredibly well, and I'd be incredibly surprised if they haven't already started on the next part.

Previously I spoke on potential Final Fantasy characters as follows:

Spoiler: Previous thoughts

Bartz Klauser
Protagonist of Final Fantasy V for the SNES, mentioned within the same interview as Cloud by Sakurai, who remarked that a moveset about switching jobs could be "interesting." Sakurai has previously dropped things within interviews that were prominent, such as how Castlevania impacted him similar to the Legend of Zelda and how excited he was to play Castlevania: Aria of Sorrow prior to Simon's reveal.

Onion Knight
Mentioned within the same interview as Bartz, but isn't as likely given that his game was Japan-exclusive until 2006.

Terra Branford
A little bit of personal speculation on my part, but given how Final Fantasy 6 is often held as one of the best JRPGs of all time and is prominently on a Nintendo console, it would make sense for her to be our second Final Fantasy pick.

Sephiroth
Final Fantasy 7 is already on the table given Cloud's inclusion, so it'd be relatively easy to secure the character rights for him. Sephiroth is one of the most iconic villains in all of gaming history, and anyone who knows about Cloud will know about his age old rival Sephiroth.

For the most part those statements stand. However, I would give a significant edge to Sephiroth, if only for the gigalith that is FF7R. Square Enix has every reason to capitalize on its success by including another Final Fantasy 7 character in Ultimate. Final Fantasy 7 is already on the table with Cloud's inclusion, which Sakurai and Normura had a great time working together on, so the established precedent of including a Final Fantasy 7 character in Smash (Ultimate) alongside the immense success of FF7R could definitely work out in Sephiroth's favor.

Of course, there are issues of music licensing, as Square Enix supposedly gives music rights to the compose which could complicate negotiations for music tracks. This seems most prominent in Cloud's pitiful 2 songs in Sm4sh and Ultimate. However, I believe on a full Fighters Pack budget and not negotiation for two games worth of content at once, this would be much less of a problem. Furthermore, Nintendo managed to negotiate through a similar scenario for Dragon Quest music with certified stingy old mantm Sugimura. Even if it's midis, they can manage.

There is also the potential issue that no precedent exists for a third party series having two unique characters. Instead of another Sonic character, Joker and Bayonetta got in, and so forth with other companies. While I believe fan rules exist to be broken, I also believe in precedent, and the lack of that in this case leads me to doubt the certainty of a Final Fantasy character.

Spoiler: Lara Croft

While certainly no Final Fantasy in terms of sales or impact, Tomb Raider certainly isn't a slouch. As of December 2019, the series has sold 80 million units according to a Square Enix press release, which makes it their third highest selling series, only behind Dragon Quest (which it's incredibly close to), and Final Fantasy (which it is not incredibly close to). In a 2017 interview, Square Enix CEO Yosuke Matsuda had this to say about the Tomb Raider series:

Tomb Raider is a very important title and very important piece of IP for us (Square Enix), and nothing has changed about that.

Furthermore, the legacy of Tomb Raider, or specifically it's main character Lara Croft is nothing to slouch at. The series, while not as active as it was in the past, has as spawned three movies, multiple soundtracks, a TV series, and multiple comic series and novelizations among other media. Furthermore, Lara Croft is by and far one of the most prominent female protagonists in gaming, and you'd be hard pressed to find a discussion or ranking of women in gaming without her. She even won 6 world records in the 2010 Guinness Book of World Records, wherein she was named "the most-famous and most-successful female video game character in the world" by the Guinness team. Her reputation really proceeds her, and I'd that Sakurai, known for his appreciation of gaming history, is more than aware of this.

The studio that develops the Tomb Raider series, Eidos Montreal, has an almost surprising amount of trust from Square Enix main, as they just recently launched a Research & Development studio alongside the company at large. Clearly, the Tomb Raider series is important to Square Enix, and I'd argue that Lara's reputation and that of her series makes her more than "worthy" for inclusion.

However, the big question I find myself asking about Lara's inclusion is the process of working with Eidos Montreal, a Western studio, and whether or not Sakurai and Nintendo would do such a thing when they could just work with Square Enix Japan.

Our only precedent for the inclusion of a Western third party character is Banjo & Kazooie, who, despite what one might think at first, was able to be obtained "quite easily" thanks to the support of Rare (and Microsoft). He speaks similarly of his collaboration with prominent Banjo-Kazooie composer Grant Kirkhope.

Now, before my readers hastily jump to a conclusion and open the floodgates for every possible Western character, I would like to note the key phrase above: thanks to the support of Rare (and Microsoft).

Rare and Microsoft were more than willing to work with Nintendo on Banjo's inclusion, and it's thanks to their active efforts that the collaboration was as successful as it was. I simply don't know if Square Enix and Eidos Interactive would be willing to do the same, nor do I know if Nintendo would be willing to negotiate for Laura when no significant fan demand exists like it did for Banjo.

Because of this, I personally doubt her chances the most out of the Square Enix characters I'll be writing on. However, I wouldn't be surprised nor disappointed to see her added as the next Square Enix character.

Spoiler: Crono

Let's address the elephant in the spoilers tag.

Chrono Trigger is iconic.

If there is one game that has stood the test of time and managed to keep itself in the cultural zeitgeist of gaming, it's Chrono Trigger.

Here's a couple of different posts talking about Chrono Trigger's legacy over the years (yes I know the last one is part of a Wikipedia article but it's pretty in-depth so I'm including it). It's often considered one of the best RPGs of all time, and more recently it topped a Japanese poll about the best game of the Heisei period, spanning 1989 to to April 2019. That's a lot of games that it beat out, including runners up Breath of the Wild and Nier Automata, two of the best games of the current console generation.

Previously, Crono suffered the same problem that Dragon Quest as a series did. It involves multiple different parties, including Yuji Horii's Armor Project and acclaimed animator Akira Toriyama. While thankfully there's no certified stingy old mantm Sugimiya to deal with, Nintendo would instead discuss music licensing with Nobuo Uematsu, who they (likely) previously worked with on Cloud's inclusion in Sm4sh and Ultimate, so negotiations would still be relatively complex.

Unlike Dragon Quest, however, the series did not have large momentum, and as such it was generally concluded that if those parties were to somehow be brought to the same table and negotiations were to go through, Hero would be added over Crono.

Good news! Hero is in Smash! All the parties have been brought to the table and things worked out!

Bad news. The Chrono series is still dead.

Worse news. Crono has little serious fan demand to make up for his dead series.



So, while Chrono Trigger is largely iconic and most all parties involved in the series have already been brought to the negotiation table, the series has no momentum whatsoever, so I personally doubt Square Enix would push for Crono's inclusion over a character from one of their more active series, which would not only have more promotional value, but are also more requested for Smash specifically.

Spoiler: Geno

Let's talk about everyone's favorite (or least favorite) puppet. Debuting in 1997's Super Mario RPG, Geno has certainly made an impact on the wider Smash fandom.

I'll begin this essay with an admission. After reviewing my previous writing on Geno in 2018's Ultimate Square Enix Character Argument, I noticed the incredibly biased nature of my argument. As such, in writing this essay I consulted with some friends of mine who support Geno and bounced ideas off of them so as to be less biased and more objective. I'd really like to give credit to Luigi The President and Shotostar for their help here.

All this being said, in this essay intend to be objective towards Geno and his chances, which means looking at both the good and the bad. If you're looking for an essay purely extolling the virtues of Geno, I'd advise you close this spoiler tab now.

Acknowledgements out of the way, I intend to structure this essay in two distinct sections: The Good and The Not So Good. The Good section consists of points purely in favor of Geno's inclusion, whereas The Not So Good section consists of points that may be in favor of Geno's inclusion, detrimental to Geno's inclusion, or could simply mean nothing at all.

The Good

Let's begin with the obvious: Fan demand. Fan demand is by far the strongest point in favor of Geno. Following the reveal of Ridley, a long time fan request since Brawl, demand for King K. Rool and Geno, the other two members of the "Holy Trinity" of impossible requests increased. With K. Rool's reveal, fan demand for Geno skyrocketed. He consistently scores high on fan polls, and been around as a request since at least the Brawl days, if not earlier. His fan demand is so great to the point where Sakurai directly acknowledged as such in his 2016 Nintendo Dream interview, saying:

He’s very popular. When talking about older characters, Geno always gets a lot of requests.

At the very least, Sakurai was aware of significant demand for Geno in 2016 (when his popularity was arguably at an all time low), and I highly doubt he wouldn't be aware of the significant demand for him now. And when Ultimate seems to be gunning for popular fan requests, including those primarily from the West like Ridley and Banjo, it's not difficult to understand why people would think Geno is in line for inclusion based largely on his popularity.

Speaking of Sakurai's 2016 Nintendo Dream interview, he also had this to say on Geno:

To tell the truth, it’s [adding Geno as a Mii Costume] because I wanted Geno to be a playable character. He has a gun for a hand, and I think he fits in really well with Smash.

Geno is quite possibly the only character Sakurai has expressed an active interest in having as a unique, playable character. He even cites the Rule of Cool reasoning of him having a gun hand. This is also one of the few points of evidence for Geno that simply can't be disputed. It's a rather strong point in his favor, especially when paired with the acknowledgement of his fan demand.

Additionally, there's a point to be made about Super Mario RPG's longevity as a singular game. While certainly not as prominent as its contemporaries Chrono Trigger or Final Fantasy 6, it's stayed around in the form of rereleases and mentions from Nintendo. It was released on both Wii (which was the first release of SMRPGI in Europe) and Wii U Virtual Console, and most recently appeared on the SNES Mini. The original game did relatively well sales wise, selling around 2 million units by 1997, which is rather impressive if you ask me. It is unknown how many units the virtual console re-releases sold, but the SNES Classic Edition has sold 5 million units as of 2018, which, while not dedicated sales numbers for SMRPG, at the very least signify a significant install base that has been exposed to SMRPG in one way or another. Furthermore, this tweet from Nintendo of America and a question alluding to Geno in this tie-in quiz for The Game Awards show that SMRPG has stayed in the zeitgeist of gaming over the years. While it's uncertain how this ties into Geno's chances for Smash, I believe this point is important nonetheless.

Finally, one of the stronger arguments for Geno is the relative ease with which Nintendo could hypothetically acquire him for. There's already precedent for negotiating with Square for Geno in Smash, both for Sm4sh and Ultimate. The game's composer, Yoko Shinomura, has also composed for Smash before, which could make music negotiations another relatively straightforward process. However, I personally believe this to be too large of a hypothetical to be a significant point, as other Square Enix characters like Neku or a character from the Bravely series could also be relatively straightforward in negotiations, which would mean this is not a distinct advantage Geno has. However, given how widely this point is cited and how it largely holds up to what we know, I believe it's worth mentioning as a net positive for Geno.

The Not So Good

I'll be using this section to discuss other points in the discourse surrounding Geno that could mean something, either good or bad, or mean absolutely nothing at all.

Let's start with an addendum to the point on Geno's fan demand. A lot of people equivocate Geno to Banjo, or at least paint the two in a similar light. This makes sense. Both are large fan requests that were seemingly impossible for one reason or another. However, with Banjo's inclusion in Fighters Pass 1, a lot of people think Geno is sure to follow. However, I wouldn't be too sure of that.

A large part of Banjo's inclusion was the long relationship between Nintendo and Microsoft on Rare IPs and Phil Spencer's active support of Banjo in Smash. There was an established precedent of Nintendo and Microsoft working together to get Rare games on Nintendo platforms, which facilitated Banjo's inclusion in Smash. While Nintendo and Square Enix have worked together to re-release SMRPG a couple of times, I am unsure whether their relationship in this regard is analogous to Nintendo and Microsoft's in this case.

Furthermore, Phil Spencer's support of Banjo allowed for Nintendo to get Banjo specifically, instead of Minecraft Steve or Master Chief, both of which are seemingly better picks from a business/promotional aspect. It is unknown if such support exists for Geno within Square Enix, and I would honestly doubt the existence of such. Taking a look at Square Enix's crossovers, you'll notice a lot of them are promotional in nature. Noctis in Tekken promoted Final Fantasy XV, Behemoth in Monster Hunter World promoted Final Fantasy XIV, 2B in Soulcalubur 6 promoted Nier Automata, and Hero in Smash promoted Dragon Quest XIS: Echoes of an Elusive Age Definitive Edition for the Nintendo Switchtm. Comparatively, Geno has no promotional value for Square Enix, nor will he anytime soon if this remark from SMRPG director Yoshihiko Maekawa is to be trusted. If presented with the opportunity to negotiate for another character in Smash, I don't know if Square Enix would willingly decide to add Geno, who has no promotional value to the company, over another character from one of their active series.

Related to this, the question of why Geno hasn't gotten into Smash at this point is one worth mentioning. In the aforementioned Nintendo Dream interview, Sakurai says this:

During Brawl, I thought it would be great if I could add him, but in the end it didn’t become a reality.

Why exactly things didn't pan out is unstated, but taking a look at Square Enix's crossovers, it's not completely unreasonable to think Square Enix has some reason for not including Geno as a unique, playable character. his where the Spirit, online icon, and Mii Costume could come in: ways of satisfying fans while working around Square Enix's unwillingness to give full rights to Geno in Smash. It could also be due to Nintendo's meddling, with rumors of a Mario Brand Preservation Committee of sorts being established and keeping Waluigi from appearing outside of spinoffs. It's possible Geno could be a victim of such meddling from Nintendo too. This could be a non-point, however, and I'll acknowledge that the reason Geno didn't get in to Brawl could be due to another reason, such as the infamous time constraints that Brawl's development suffered from. Regardless, the point still stands that Geno has yet to be added when Pac-Man, Villager, Miis, and even Ridley have all made the jump to playable status despite being denied for one reason or another, which, at least to me, seems suspect.

Speaking of Mii Costumes, it's definitely a good sign that Geno's has yet to show up, especially when a Square Enix character has already come as a DLC character. However, as of right now a majority of Mii Costumes have returned from Sm4sh, and this time around it seems like they're not always tied to the Challenger Pack they release alongside. After all, people though the lack of Heihachi's Mii Costume meant good things for his chances, and then this happened:

Spoiler: Big Picture

The fact that Geno's Mii Costume has yet to appear, while seemingly good for his chances, is not a definite point in his favor.

Discussing Mii Costumes, it's also important to discuss premium Mii Costumes. Sans, Cuphead, and most recently Vault Boy have all been added as Mii Costumes to both expand the large crossover that is Ultimate and satisfy fan demands that aren't as realizable for one reason or another. It's feasible that Geno, who has already received a Mii Costume that surely performed well, could simply see an upgraded, premium Mii Costume to satisfy his large fan demand.

I'm not going to seriously acknowledge Cacomallow because it's not worth serious discussion. It's been recreated, showing that it could easily just be a mod, and Nintendo still hasn't taken it down despite taking videos down for less. I figured I would at least mention it as some Geno fans still use it as a point in his favor. It's not.

Finally, let's talk about the argument that Spirits disconfirm. With Min Min's recent confirmation, it seems the floodgates have opened on Spirit upgrades from the base game, of which Geno is one. Great news!

Right? Not necessarily.

It's well known that the inclusion of an ARMS character was a special request from Nintendo that Sakurai took on. In this case, a Spirit upgrade is almost necessary, as not using the Spirits included in the base game would lock Sakurai out of the two mascots of the series, Spring Man and Ribbon Girl, as well as two of the most popular characters in the game, Min Min and Ninjara. Not upgrading would have been far too limiting in this case, so to fulfill Nintendo's request, he went with Min Min, the most popular character and the personal favorite of ARMS producter Kosuke Yabuki. So, while it seems like base Spirits are back on the table, it could also only be in special cases such as this. As of right now there's not enough evidence to show that Min Min is the establishment of the rule, rather than an exception.

In Closing

Geno is truly in a peculiar state. He's one of the most popular characters in Speculation, and he's appeared in Smash in one for or another twice now. However, despite this, there seems to be some force that's keeping him from making the jump to fully playable. He's truly 50/50 in my opinion, as there are as many points in his favor as there are against him. It ultimately comes down to what Square Enix decides. Do they let Nintendo appeal to core fans with Geno, or go for more promotion of their existing series?

Personally, I believe if faced with the choice Square Enix would go for the latter, especially considering that they can still appeal to core Nintendo fans with characters like Neku or someone from the Bravely series. I'll acknowledge that they could certainly go for the former though. If Nintendo wants to appeal to core fans, which they definitely seem prone to do, Geno would be a great pick to do so, and I'd call his chances quite good if this is the case.

It depends on a lot of factors however, and while I personally doubt it, it could really go either way.

Spoiler: Sora

Like with most of the characters I've written on in this series, I've previously written on Sora, most prominently in my 2018 Ultimate Square Enix Character Argument. In that, I widely defended his chances like the Sora fan I am. This time around, I plan on taking a more objective look to his chances in Smash. You can refer to my previous argument for some points on the strength of the KH series at the time, as I'll mainly be taking a look at the current circumstances of the KH series. Some of this argument will be recycled from my earlier essay, however, as some of the points play a part in the argument going forward. I'll be divvying this essay up into three sections (plus a bonus section in the middle), named after the topics they'll be covering.

The Status of the Kingdom Hearts Series

To put it briefly: the Kingdom Hearts series is doing better now more than ever.

To start, Kingdom Hearts 3 smashed series sales records by selling 5 million units in less than 2 weeks, and debuted on sales charts at number 1, above Capcom's much-anticipated Resident Evil (also known as Biohazard in Japan) 2 remake. To put that into perspective, by February, KH3 exceeded sales of Kingdom Hearts 2 by over 80% within the same time frame. Undoubtedly this is, in part, due to the fact that Kingdom Hearts 3 was the first game to break Kingdom Hearts' large Playstation exclusivity by also releasing on Xbox at the same time as PS4. This was followed by Kingdom Hearts 1.5 + 2.5 ReMix and Kingdom Hearts HD 2.8 Final Chapter Prologue, or, without the long convoluted names: the rest of the Kingdom Hearts series up to this point.

People are being exposed to the Kingdom Hearts' now more than ever given its large accessibility on modern consoles. This is further exacerbated by the large sales games in the series have seen. Seriously. You can get the entire series for like, $60 (not counting KH3's DLC expansion, which is worth additional $30). That's the same price as Pokémon Sword or Shield plus the expansion pass. I don't know about you, but when faced with the choice between more Pokémon except it's soulless or over a decade's worth of great action RPGs (like, 7 full games), the decision's obvious. But I digress

The series recently saw two new games announced, those being Kingdom Hearts: Dark Road, a rebranding of the Kingdom Hearts mobile game, and Kingdom Hearts Melody of Memory, the Kingdom Hearts' series long overdue Theatrym counterpart. MoM (which is a rather cheeky abbreviation for fans up to date on the series) also marks the debut of Kingdom Hearts on the Nintendo Switch, which is simultaneously surprising and not surprising at all, given the precedent of Kingdom Hearts "spinoffs" (there are no spinoffs in this series), such as 358/2 Days, Re:Coded, and Dream Drop Distance appearing first on Nintendo consoles. Regardless, this shows that Square Enix at least acknowledges the Switch as a platform for Kingdom Hearts games going forward, assuming the Switch can handle them.

The Kingdom Hearts series was already performing relatively well, selling over 24 million units as of November 2017 (which is now 32 million units as of June 2019), but over time the series has only gained traction, to the point where it's now one Square Enix and Disney's predominant series. At the very least, it has enough reputation and notoriety to warrant inclusion in Smash.

Disney

Hoo boy, we've got a lot to cover here.

I don't think Disney needs any introduction. For better or for worse, you'd have to be living under a rock to not know what Disney is. Furthermore, it's common knowledge that for all intents and purposes, Disney owns the legal rights to all original content in the Kingdom Hearts series, Sora included. If Sora is to be included in Smash, Disney is going to play an essential role in negotiations for them.

Which throws a wrench into any sort of speculation about Sora, because no one knows how to predict Disney in this regard.

A lot of users are skeptical of negotiations succeeding, in large part due to Disney. Smashboard users NonSpecificGuy and PlayerOneTyler have spoken of their experiences working with Disney, and how difficult Disney's legal team is to work with. One of them spoke about how difficult obtaining Kingdom Hearts content for Disney Infinity, a game developed internally within Disney, was. If it's difficult for an internal team to gain access to Kingdom Hearts content, then Nintendo, an outside company, is going to be facing a steep uphill battle for Sora in Smash.

However, that was circa 2018. Since then, I would argue that the climate within Disney has changed favorably for Sora's chances.

I'm going to be linking a lot to this summary of popular Kingdom Hearts youtuber HMK's interview with Disney of Japan Vice President and General Manager Justin Scarpone (I've already linked to it once before this), since it's the best primary source with which to discuss how Disney might act in negotiations for Sora. This is a rather old source, however, and I'll discuss how things may or may not have changed since then.

Scarpone talks quite a bit about the process of how negotiations for Sora would go down. To condense the process, it goes as such:

• Nintendo approaches Disney for negotiations
• Assuming fan demand exists, approval from Normura and Square Enix would be required
• Assuming the above conditions are met, Disney seriously considers the offer.
• Assuming that Disney accepts the offer, they would then work alongside Nintendo to represent Sora accurately in Smash.

The first part is relatively straightforward. Nintendo approaches Disney and asks to use Sora, upon which negotiations begin. Whether Nintendo has approached Disney (or would approach Disney knowing the potential uphill battle they face) and would approach Disney again assuming negotiations have failed in the past (which I personally believe has happened) is a large question, and one that I honestly don't know the answer to.

The next part of negotiations relies on fan demand, and I would even venture to argue that the first part–Nintendo approaching Disney–also largely relies on such. This asks the question of whether or not Sora has significant fan demand, to which the answer is yes. There is significant fan demand for Sora, and there has been such dating back to Ballot era in 2016. The Kingdom Hearts community has posted Sora in Smash throughout the years. The aforementioned posts were from my previous Square Enix Character Argument, and these are taken more recently from the Kingdom Hearts subreddit. These are just the more prominent posts; I assure you that many more exist. The dedicated Kingdom Hearts community has largely rallied behind Sora in Smash, and is a significant source of fan demand for Sora.

Not to say that fan demand for Sora doesn't exist otherwise. On the contrary, significant support for Sora also exists within the dedicated Smash Community, and he consistently manages to score among the highest spots on fan polls for the most requested or anticipated Smash characters. Needless to say, there's more than enough fan demand to justify both Nintendo approaching Disney and beginning negotiations for Sora in Smash.

Next is approval from Square Enix. It's important here to note the role that Square Enix has the legal rights for Nintendo, which I believe is often understated. While Disney, for all intents and purposes, owns the rights to Kingdom Hearts original content, they're engaged in a gentleman's agreement with Square Enix and Normura wherein Disney always goes to them for approval on Kingdom Hearts appearing significantly outside of the series. This is something they've honored since the start of the series, cancelling a potential Kingdom Hearts cartoon based on the original game "so as to not jeopardize the relationship between Square Enix & Disney as they began to expand the franchise," as well as cancelling a Disney developed Kingdom Hearts mobile game, likely for similar reasons. Needless to say, this agreement is very important to Disney.

This raises the question of whether or not Square Enix would approve. The short answer: More than likely yes.

For one, Sakurai and Normura have an incredibly strong business relationship after working on Cloud in Smash, with Sakurai even personally congratulating Normura for the Kingdom Hearts series' 15th anniversary. Additionally, Square Enix executive officer and Kingdom Hearts co-creator Shinji Hashimoto supports Sora in Smash too, as evidenced by this now deleted tweet. Square Enix would very likely not be an obstacle to Sora's inclusion.

With approval from Square Enix, Disney would then seriously consider the proposal from Nintendo. Here's the most uncertain step in the grand scheme of things. The question now is whether or not Disney would approve the proposal. While I don't believe I have enough information to accurately predict as such, I'll lay out some of the factors that I believe would play into this.
Let's start with the business relationship between Nintendo and Disney.

It's actually pretty good. Disney and Nintendo's relationship dates back to the Pre-NES days in 1959, when Nintendo made playing cards and board games with using Disney properties. This actually boosted Nintendo's reputation and got them accepted into the Tokyo and Osaka Stock Exchanges, which allowed them to develop further as a business. Similar to Square Enix, Nintendo's picked up the publishing for multiple Disney licensed games throughout the years, including Mickey's Racing Adventure, Disney's Magical Mirror Starring Mickey Mouse, and the Disney Magical World series among others. In the past Disney properties have been prominent releases on Nintendo systems, such as the Epic Mickey and Spectrobes series respectively, and a large amount of Disney licensed games are exclusive to Nintendo systems (largely due to the large install base of children, their intended audience with such titles).

Weirdly enough, Disney also created an online game and social network service for their games on the DS? I actually remember using it for a Club Penguin spinoff game, but it's definitely among one of the weirder aspects of Disney and Nintendo's history. In the past they've also worked together on televised media, such as co-developing a game show about the Nintendo Switch and having the Smash for Wii U EVO 2017 finals televised on Disney XD. More recently, Disney has released notable exclusives for the Nintendo Switch, those being Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3 and Disney Tsum Tsum Festival. Their Switch exclusivity certainly stands out given that Disney would have had a lot more to profit to gain by making these titles multiplatform. While the two seem to have recently drifted away, with Nintendo partnering with Universal for Super Nintendo World and Disney largely focusing on their movie and streaming efforts, their long history of partnerships would likely play into negotiations.

Next, let's discuss Disney and video games. Disney has had a rather complicated relationship with video games in the past. Their in-house video game development studio, Disney Interactive Studios, shut down in 2016, after which video games relating to Disney content became sparse. Furthermore, their crossovers into other media seemed purely transactional or promotional, such as Thanos in Fortnite (which appeared in Avengers Endgame), Wreck-It Ralph in Sonic and Sega All Stars Racing (likely as a result of Sonic's appearance in Wreck-It Ralph), and Wreck-It Ralph in Fortnite (to promote Ralph Breaks The Internet).

However, following the success of licensed titles such as Kingdom Hearts 3 and Star Wars Battlefront 2 (following the drama involving lootboxes), Disney has turned to a dominant strategy of licensing out their properties for game development studios to use. This is a rather recent development, with former Disney CEO Bob Iger discussing this in a February 2019 earnings call. This sentiment was more recently echoed by senior VP for games and interactive experiences Sean Shoptaw at the February 2020 DICE Summit. To further this strategy, in July 2019 Disney hired former Playstation executive John Drake as VP of business development and licensing for games, with his focus being to "help pair amazing developers and publishers with the best IP in the world." Disney's is geared up and ready to license their properties to prominent developers, which could be a significant boost for Sora's chances.

Finally, how does Disney treat the Kingdom Hearts series?

In the past, Kingdom Hearts was the red-haired stepchild kept in Disney's basement. However, KH3's success seems to have caused an internal shift within Disney, as they've started embracing the series more. Last year Sora appeared on a D23 collectable print and character costumes of Donald and Goofy in their Kingdom Hearts attire showed up at a Disneyland Halloween party. In a stream (at around the 2 hour mark), HMK discussed the surprisingly large amount of low quality licensed Kingdom Hearts merchandise, which you can find at your local Hot Topic store. While these have been around in the past (I have an old Kingdom Hearts 2 shirt that I got in the 4th grade still fits me to this day–I wear it as a pajama shirt), the quantity of such products seems to have increased as of late. Most recently, a prominent rumor of a Kingdom Hearts TV series being in the works for Disney+ has come out and basically been confirmed by multiple reputable sources. Disney is acknowledging the Kingdom Hearts series now more than ever, and seems to be attempting to capitalize off of the recent success the series has seen as much as possible. This could certainly bode well for Sora in Smash, as Disney would surely recognize the raw promotional power Smash Ultimate would have for the Kingdom Hearts series, and would seriously consider Sora's inclusion in the game.

As a side point on Disney's treatment of the Kingdom Hearts series, I'd like to highlight a point made by Scarpone in HMK's video. In it, he says that Kingdom Hearts 3 is the major focus for Disney regarding the Kingdom Hearts series, and that anything after the game's development would be more seriously considered. This would certainly make sense, given that the interview was conducted in May 2018 during the tail-end of production for KH3. It also means that negotiations pre and post-KH3 would likely play out differently for or against Nintendo.

Ultimately, I believe any point relating to Disney's role in negotiations comes down to timing. Which is why it's so difficult to answer the question of whether or not negotiations with Disney would succeed. You have to consider when Nintendo approached Disney to negotiate for Sora, and assuming that they've tried in the past and failed, whether they would try again when circumstances are more favorable.

We know character negotiations have failed in the past as stated in Sakurai's book, and knowing how difficult Disney's legal team was to work with on video games in 2016, it's not difficult to imagine Nintendo approaching Disney based on Sora's solid support in the Smash Ballot and getting rejected. If Nintendo attempted negotiations at any point prior to KH3's release, I imagine negotiations similarly falling through due to Disney. Between February - July 2019 I give Nintendo decent chances of negotiations succeeding, as around that time Disney seemed to become more open to licensing out their properties. After July 2019 I give Nintendo about the same chances of negotiations succeeding as when they went for Dragon Quest for Fighters Pass 1–not necessarily likely, but possible.

Of course, this speculation rests on a whole lot of hypotheticals. Furthermore, it doesn't seem to lineup with when Fighters Pass 2 was finalized. At latest the fighter selection for Pass 2 was decided by November 2019 (when Sakurai recorded his Byleth presentation and announced Fighters Pass 2), but if rumors about how early Pass 1 was decided on (at least in regards to Banjo being negotiated for in May 2018, months before the base game's release) is to be believed (as a side note, while I try not to use hearsay in my speculation, I believe that this fact comes from reputable enough sources to be mentioned here), it was likely much earlier. I would personally venture to guess the selections for Pass 2 were finalized by early to mid 2019.

The bottom line is this: Nintendo likely didn't have good chances for Sora when they were negotiating for Pass 2, and I personally doubt that if they tired they would succeed. I also don't know if Nintendo would try for Sora again assuming that they tried and failed at some point earlier (which I personally believe happened. Which is why I suggest this:

Tinfoil Hat tiem

If you'll just give me a second to put this on...

Spoiler: Ready!

This is a longshot in the dark, and this is not backed by any sort of evidence whatsoever. This is more so just a fun "what if" that I think could happen in 1 out of 14,000,605 futures. If there's a point to attack in this essay, this is not one of them, as this point is not serious at all, nor will I seriously advocate for it as more than a tinfoil hat theory if pressed.

Anyways, as well all know, Fighters Pass 2 has 6 fighters instead of 5. This fact was prominently introduced and discussed in Byleth's Sakurai Presents presentation. I believe that this could be due to the fact that negotiations for a character who had previously been rejected (which we know has occurred due to Sakurai's book) suddenly became available, and Nintendo jumped on it. There is precedent for such a thing occurring in the development of a Smash game, as Sonic was a late addition to Brawl, being added 2 years after the newcomer list had initially been decided. While the exact reason for this has seemingly never been stated, it's common speculation that this was due to Sega initially rejecting the request, and then walking back on it later due to the immense hype surrounding Brawl (this Source Gaming article says as such, but does not link back to a primary source which makes me hesitant to completely believe it).

I think you can see where this is going.

Sora had immense popularity during the ballot period, with the Kingdom Hearts community rallying together for Sora's inclusion. It's not hard to believe that Nintendo tried for Sora then, but negotiations fell through for one reason or another. They drop the issue until Fighters Pass 2, when Disney has done a 180 on video games following the mass success of Kingdom Hearts 3 and is looking to promote the series in the largest gaming crossover of all time. Nintendo approaches Sakurai like they did for Dragon Quest, and they go for it despite having already decided Fighters Pass 2 in its entirety. Since it's DLC, all they have to do is tack on another fighter to the pass and promote as such.

This explanation accounts for Disney's role in negotiations while also accommodating the timeline of Fighters Pass 2 being decided. In the initial deciding, Nintendo had a very thin window to negotiate with Disney if they decided to do so, probably for the second or third time. By going outside of that timeline, however, and explaining Disney's turnaround on negotiations as being due to a desire to capitalize off the success of the Kingdom Hearts series after KH3, you can justify Sora's inclusion as the special sixth fighter in Fighters Pass 2.

Of course, I completely acknowledge the sheer amount of logical leaps and mental gymnastics needed to reach such a conclusion. This certainly doesn't hold up to Occam's Razor, which would sooner accept that negotiations for Sora either haven't occurred or failed in the past, and that this Fighters Pass has 6 characters because Fighters Pass 1 was incredibly successful, Nintendo wanted to add more characters, and it just so happened to work out to 6 characters instead of 5. However, I think this theory is worth mentioning, at the very least as a fun little thought.

Counterarguments

I'd also like to acknowledge two common counterarguments. The first being that Sora would have to bring Disney content with him, which would complicate negotiations as Disney would be overprotective of their intellectual properties. This largely argument relies on either ignorance of the series or personal opinion on what Kingdom Hearts is, as there's enough original content from Kingdom Hearts to include without so much as touching Disney properties.

This is most prominently showcased in Kingdom Hearts χ Back Cover, a movie retelling of the significant events of Kingdom Hearts χ, which is integral to the overarching plot of the Kingdom Hearts series. Disney worlds aren't brought up at all in the story; instead it relies solely on original content to carry the story, and it works. Furthermore, the finale of Kingdom Hearts 3 (where pretty much the entire story takes place) uses no Disney content aside from the presence of Mickey, Donald, and Goofy in some of the final battles. While Disney content is important to the Kingdom Hearts series, it is not a necessary requirement.

Sora's Kingdom Key, which contains the Mickey ears as a key chain, could be altered or replaced to remove the mention. The key chain could be replaced with the Smash logo, or Sakurai could even design a new Keyblade for Smash specifically (which would actually be really cool). Furthermore, instead of the Kingdom Key, Shooting Star, which was prominently featuring in KH3's marketing alongside the Kingdom Key (and shows up in story cutscenes), or Oathkeeper and/or Oblivion, fan favorite Keyblades relevant to Sora's character could be used in place of the Kingdom Key. This is supposing the Mickey ears keychain is important, which it doesn't seem to be as evidenced by it appearing in other crossovers featuring Sora, such as his appearance in World of Final Fantasy's DLC.

Spirits could draw from the Heartless, Nobodies, Unversed, the other Warriors of Light (minus Mickey), Organization XIII, characters from Kingdom Hearts χ, etc. Stages could draw from Kingdom Hearts original worlds like Traverse Town, The End of the World, Castle Oblivion, Twilight Town, The World That Never Was, The Land of Departure, or Scala ad Caelum among others. Music could take from the large variety of music that plays in these worlds, or from the bevy of boss music used throughout the series (I'd love to see them use the remixes from KH3's Limit Cut episode, all of which are amazing).

Furthermore, this argument rests on the hypothetical of Disney being stingy with all of their intellectual properties in negotiations, which may or may not be true. At this point, however, the Kingdom Hearts series has enough of a unique identity to stand on its, which it seems to be attempting going forward if the Secret Episode of Kingdom Hearts 3 is to be believed. Nintendo and Sakurai could faithfully represent the series without so much as touching other Disney properties if need be.

Second, I'd also like to address the supposed disconfirmation of Sora by former Game Informer editor Imran Khan, who is known to have insider sources. This was pure speculation on his part, and he later went on to say he personally believes Sora is a contender for the "next big Smash Ultimate Character" alongside Master Chief. His speculation isn't necessarily surprising, as even I would say it's likely that negotiations for Sora have been attempted and fell through in the past. Regardless, this is a non-point based on the kneejerk reaction people has to Khan's statement immediately preceding him saying the next big character is Sora or Master Chief.

In Closing

I genuinely have no clue how likely or unlikely Sora is. In my (Kingdom) heart of hearts I want to believe in him, but I have no clue about how Disney plays into his chances, nor do I believe I have enough information to confidently speculate as such. If negotiations for him were to occur now, I'd say feel favorably for his chances, but as Disney just seems to have turned around on video games now, I don't know if negotiations could've been successful when deciding Fighters Pass 2, which was likely negotiated for in early-mid 2019. Furthermore, there's the unanswered question of whether Nintendo would try for Sora again after negotiations for him have likely been attempted before and fell through.

Hence why I suggest my tinfoil hat theory, as it satisfies the conditions for negotiations on Sora for Fighters Pass 2 to succeed by going outside of the timeline of Fighters Pass 2 being initially decided, justifying why it'd succeed compared to before, as well as explaining why Fighters Pass 2 has 6 characters instead of 5 like Fighters Pass 1. That's a long grasp for straws, however, and I don't seriously believe nor endorse it.

Sora exists in this weird limbo state that relies on Disney, and I simply can't come to a conclusion about how they'd act. On one hand, Nintendo and Disney are solid business partners, and have been for years. On the other hand, Disney is a ruthless mega-corporation with a legal team known first for their hardheadedness, and depending on when Nintendo began negotiations their chances could range from possible at best to completely impossible, with only a thin time frame for the former to occur. As much as I want him, I can't favorably argue for his chances over a character that would be easier for Nintendo to obtain, despite the net hype that they would gain by including Sora over such a character. If this were speculation for Pass 3, I would personally give Sora favorable chances.

However, in this essay I'm discussing Pass 2, and as of right now I'm personally not getting my hopes up. Maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised, and if Sora gets into Smash you can be sure I'll react with as much hype as I had for Joker, if not more. But for now I have entire the Kingdom Hearts series on my Playstation, and I'm more than content with that.

Spoiler: Bravely

Let's start with a small primer on the Bravely series:

Bravely Default originally released in 2012 in Japan. There, it topped the charts, selling 141,529 units in the first week after its release, and sold through 85.68% of its initial stock. It performed much better than its contemporary that released at the same time, Project X Zone, as well as it's predecessor, Final Fantasy: The 4 Heroes of Light. In reporting on this, Silconera noted this to be an incredibly strong performance for a brand new franchise–which we'll find becomes a running trend for the Bravely series. The game wouldn't see release until over a year later in Europe, Australia, and America in 2013 for the former two and 2014 for the latter.

The period between the original Japanese release and the announcement of the English localization was met with much demand from journalists and JRPG fans alike, which ultimately led to the game being localized despite there being no plans initially to do so. The positive Western response honestly surprised the team, with them admitting that they were "deeply moved" by it publicly. An interesting thing to note is that Nintendo picked up the publishing for Bravely Default (and its sequel Bravely Second) in all regions outside of Japan, which makes it similar to Dragon Quest in this way.

The success of the original Bravely Default was so large that it led to Square Enix reevaluating their strategy for Final Fantasy, their breadwinner series. In a 2014 interview following Bravely Default breaking 1 million units sold worldwide, Square Enix President Yosuke Matsuda had this to say about Bravely compared to Final Fantasy:

In the past, when we developed console games with a worldwide premise, and we lost our focus, and not only did [those releases] end up being games that weren’t for the Japanese, but they ended up being incomplete titles that weren’t even fit for a global audience. On the other hand, there are games like the JRPG [Bravely Default that] we made for the Japanese audience with the proper [and familiar] elements [that] ended up selling well around the world.

To reiterate, Bravely Default, a portable game not tied to any major existing series, managed to make Square Enix reconsider how they're handling Final Fantasy, their longest running, best-selling series. That's huge. Needless to say, Bravely Default was a huge success for Square Enix.

So, where did they go from there? A lot of places really.

The original game also received two supplementary books in 2013, two drama CDs with supplementary stories in 2013 and 2014, and a manga that ran from 2015 to 2016, of which two compiled volumes have been released. In addition, three different mobile games have been made for Bravely over the years (continuing to prove the age old rule of all Square Enix series getting a mobile game), those being 2012's Playing Brage, 2015's Bravely Archive (released in 2018 in Western markets), and most recently 2017's Fairy's Effect. Of these, Bravely Archive is the most notable, having surpassed 4 million downloads in Japan and being the only Bravely mobile title released outside of Japan. As of right now, however, Fariy's Effect is the only ongoing game, as both Playing Brage and Bravely Archive were discontinued in 2019. However, Fairy Effect is also set to be discontinued a little over a month from the time of writing, on August 31st, 2020. While the multimedia projects seem to be rather standard for a series popular in Japan, and none of the games really took off all that much, I feel the need to mention these because it shows that the Bravely series has received a steady stream of media throughout the years. Bravely is very much an active series for Square Enix, even if it seems to have been sidelined for the most part.

Most notable is the sequel that the game received, Bravely Second. Talk of a sequel to the original Bravely Default started as early as December 2012, two months after the original game's release. A Final Mix version of the original with added features, Bravely Default: For the Sequel, was announced in August 2013, all but confirming a sequel before it was officially announced in December 2013 (though the trademark registration had been caught by fans in September). Bravely Second released in Japan in 2015 and reached Western markets in 2016. Despite critical acclaim, the game didn't sell as well as its' predecessor, only selling 700,000 units by April 2017, when Bravely Default had reached 1 million units sold in the same time span. Despite this, it did rather well, especially considering JRPGs had yet to take off as they have now. Most recently, the game topped UK sales charts at Number 2, just below The Last of Us 2, in June 2020, just last month at the time of writing, due to a flash sale run by popular retailer Argos. Despite being the weaker of the two Bravely 3DS titles (at least according to series producer Tomoya Asano), people have been exposed to Bravely Second about as much as the original, lending further evidence to the wide exposure people have had to the Bravely series.

However, after 2017, a lot of momentum for the Bravely series seems to stop. No releases, little news, just a group of fans desperately hoping for a Bravely Default 2. You'd think this is where the story ends. The Bravely series was a flash in the pan and has since fizzled into obscurity. Discussion on Bravely in Smash will be consigned to remembering the odd render leaks we've gotten in the past, laughing about it, and moving on to engage in the same circular discussion on Pokémon for the 2,037th time.

Right?

Wrong.

Let's talk about Octopath Traveler.

While at first glance it might seem like Octopath Traveler has absolutely nothing to do with Bravely, I'd like to mention it nonetheless, specifically because it was the next game produced by Asano after Bravely Default and Bravely Second, and is likely responsible for the lull the Bravely series experienced.

Octopath Traveler's announcement pre-dates the Switch's release date, and it was very much set up as an important title for the Switch. Perhaps this explains the game's overwhelming success, with the game selling through 90% of its initial stock and causing Square Enix to apologize twice for a lack of stock to meet demand. Octopath was a huge success for Square Enix, selling 2 million units as of April, doubling the sales of Bravely Default (albeit, with more time and a Windows port–though I would personally say the Windows port speaks to the success of the original Switch release). Considering that Square Enix focusing on the Switch was contingent on Octopath's success, it could be said that Octopath is, in part, responsible for the second Nintendo-Square Enix renaissance we find ourselves in right now.

The reason I mention Octopath is for a couple of reasons.

• One, Asano admitted it was designed with the shortcomings of Bravely Second in mind, showing a direct link between Bravely and Octopath.
• Two, it continues Asano's hot streak within Square Enix. He's very much become a prominent figure within the company, and I believe this is a fact that ought to be noted in speculation on Bravely
• Third, and most important, the massive success of Octopath proved that there's a significant audience for JRPG games on the Nintendo Switch. Nintendo and Square Enix are very much aware of this.

And then guess what comes next?

Bravely Default 2, headlining Nintendo's announcements at the The Game Awards 2019 alongside No More Heroes 3. This streak of Nintendo pushing Bravely Default 2 continues into the March 2020 Direct Mini, where it takes up 1/7th of the English Direct, the most amount of time of any game. A demo releases the same day that Nintendo spams the News tab with notifications about. Nintendo seems to be setting Bravely Default 2 to be the next Octopath Traveler-esque success worldwide, which is what I believe gives it a significant edge as Nintendo could implore Sakurai to include it for promotional reasons. Again, there's a massive audience for JRPG fans on Switch, and what better way to wrap them into buying Fighters Pass 2 than to include a prominent Nintendo-exclusive JRPG series in it?

I also believe that a major mechanic of the game, job switching, is an interesting moveset mechanic that Sakurai has previously expressed interest in. We know he's prone to revisit ideas whenever he can, so I could see him going after Bravely in part due to this as well. Remember, Sakurai weighs a fun moveset equally to, if not more important than recognizability, so the point about Bravely characters not being recognizable enough falls largely moot.

Now, with the Bravely series being established as a strong contender for the coveted Square Enix spot, the question becomes: What character(s) will they choose?

Which is actually kind of a tough question.

I'll start by saying that we'll likely see multiple characters a lá Hero, given that the job switching mechanic of Bravely is universal across all playable party members. In terms of the most prominent choices, I would say they're Edea Lee and Tiz Arrior.

To start, Edea is the most popular character in the series, placing highest by far in fan polls (granted, there aren't many of them, nor are any of them significantly large, but she is number 1 on them)

Additionally, she seems to a favorite of the developers and the pseudo-mascot for the Bravely series, as evidenced by her being playable in both Bravely Default and Bravely Second as well as the many Bravely tweets she's prominently featured in:

Spoiler: Bravely Tweets

遅くなってしまいましたが―
本年もよろしくお願いしますm_ _m

海外サイトにて、2018年の期待するゲームに
オクトパスがランクインしたようです。

チーム一同、がんばります！https://t.co/U6LPBEeNRu pic.twitter.com/7rIAi9C1dJ

— ブレイブリーデフォルトII公式 (@BDFF_OFFICIAL) January 10, 2018

＼ハッピーメリークリスマス！／ pic.twitter.com/gGDGj13Ley

— ブレイブリーデフォルトII公式 (@BDFF_OFFICIAL) December 23, 2017

明けましておめでとうございます！

本年も、よろしくお願いしまする
m_ _m pic.twitter.com/eijJH7Fyb2

— ブレイブリーデフォルトII公式 (@BDFF_OFFICIAL) December 31, 2016

ブレイブリー生誕４周年！

最近は情報に乏しくてごめんなさい。

近々 何かあるかも……！？ pic.twitter.com/F2FBalVoMq

— ブレイブリーデフォルトII公式 (@BDFF_OFFICIAL) October 11, 2016

I name Tiz as well given that he is the most popular male character in the series, and like Edea is playable in both Bravely Default and Bravely Second.

Agnès Oblige bears mention for being in the two fake leaks of Bravely in Smash, as well as her prominent story role in Bravely Second.

I also believe that Edea, Tiz, and Agnès bear similar proportions to Adelle, Seth, and Gloria from Bravely Default 2 respectively, which could also allow for Nintendo to integrate characters from the sequel as well.

While Bravely is not as widely speculated for Smash as other Square Enix series, its steady amount of success combined with the set-up its receiving right now makes it a prime competitor for the next Square Enix spot in my opinion.

Spoiler: Neku

Neku's been around as a fan request in one form or another since the Brawl period, and while he's never been as popular of a pick as Final Fantasy, Geno, or Sora, nor is his series (game?) as popular as juggernauts like Dragon Quest or Lara Croft, I believe there are some recent factors that should lead to a reevaluation of his chances.

To start, for a single game, The World Ends With You has seen a significant amount of re-releases and media appearances, especially for a single game released over a decade ago. The original game was ported to iOS in 2012 (with a shadow re-release in 2015 after it disappeared for a couple of months due to incompatibility with iOS 8), Android in 2014, and the Nintendo Switch in 2018. Main characters Neku, Shiki, Beat, Rhyme, and Joshua appeared prominently in Kingdom Hearts: Dream Drop Distance, with Neku showing up in one of the earliest trailers for the game.

Spoiler: KH3 Secret Episode spoilers

It's also speculated that the The World Ends With You universe will play a larger role in the Kingdom Hearts sieres going forward, as Sora ends up in a different version of Shibuya with what seems to be TWEWY's 104 Tower. While this is unsubstantiated, I believe it's worth mentioning regardless.

Just recently, an anime adaptation of the original game was announced (and is actually being handled by a set of seemingly competent studios instead of A-1).

You don't make an entire anime series for a franchise you have no plans of continuing.

Notable also is the constant remarks from developers of the series about their desire to make a sequel. The game's director, Tatsuya Kando, expressed interest for such in a 2009 interview, and he's been echoed by Character Designer Tetsuya Normura in in 2010, and most recently 2018 when he said that it was his "intention of making this [TWEWY Final Mix] [his] last time working with the original game."

Remember that Sakurai and Normura have a very strong business relationship, if not a friendship, which could be a significant edge for Neku.

While The World Ends With You series has only seen one game released so far, this one game has managed to live on for over a decade, and is carried by prominent members of Square Enix to this day. The announcement of the recent anime adaptation shows that Square Enix very much still cares for TWEWY, which could lead to them pushing for Neku's inclusion in Smash. At the very least, it's a good time to be a fan of the series.

Spoiler: Gex

I decided to revise my argument for Gex just a little bit for this master post.

This video actually does a great job explaining Gex's chances for Smash, and I'd highly recommend you watch it.

There is a precedent for Gex on Nintendo consoles, and his three games have sold a total of 15 million units worldwide. So it's possible.


However, he's from a long dormant series and he faces incredibly steep competition, so I don't see him a likely in the slightest. Sorry Gex fans.

Spoiler: Conclusion

In conclusion, Square Enix and Nintendo's corporate relationship seems to be stronger than ever, which, when combined with a precedent for negotiation on Smash DLC, would streamline negotiations for a Square Enix character significantly. Square Enix still has a variety of iconic series and characters that, for one reason or another, would be beneficial for Nintendo to include in Smash Bros.

Assuming we get a second Square Enix character, I'd rate the above character's likelihoods as such:

Bravely ≥ 2B/Nier > Neku ≥ Final Fantasy > Sora = Geno = Lara Croft > Crono

• Nier and Bravely are two of Square Enix's major franchises as of the moment, with Nier seeing a large internal push within the company and Bravely seeing a large push by Nintendo.
• Both The World Ends With You and Final Fantasy have seen large promotion recently, which could hypothetically lead to Square pushing these series in Smash.
• Sora, Geno, and Lara, while worthy of inclusion in their own rights, all have something holding them back.
  • Sora has the absolute wildcard that is Disney to consider, and I'm not going to try to predict their actions. I personally lean towards negotiations failing for one reason or another.
  • Geno has overwhelming popularity, but also has to go through Square Enix, who seems content to let him live on in PNGs and Mii Costumes. I call his chances on a 50/50 coin flip that could work out either way depending on how strong his fan demand is perceived by Nintendo and Square Enix.
  • Lara Croft, while an iconic character in gaming as a whole, has to go through the additional processes that entail working with a Western company to include a character in Smash. I simply don't know if Nintendo and Sakurai would go for that, especially when significant fan demand does not exist and Square Enix doesn't seem as willing to work with Nintendo on her inclusion as Microsoft was for Banjo & Kazooie's inclusion.
• Chrono, while coming from one of the most revered games of the 16 bit era, doesn't have much traction going for his series currently. While not a kill blow for his chances, this creates significant doubt when Square could use the slot to promote one of their active series or a more popular character.

What about Gex you ask? Oh yeah. Uh...

Bravely ≥ 2B/Nier > Neku ≥ Final Fantasy > Sora = Geno = Chrono ≥ Lara Croft >>> Gex

Sorry Gex fans.

Of course, this is all assuming we do get a second Square Enix character. As of right now, I believe we know too little about Pass 2 to properly speculate as to how it will look. I personally believe this will be a more reserved pass compared to our last one, and will focus more on first parties and third party series closely associated with Smash, but that's simply based off the discrepancy between starting with Joker and starting with Min Min (and some things I've heard here and there, but I try not to let hearsay determine my speculation in a significant way–at that point I'd feel less a speculator and more a "leaker," and those guys are honestly annoying).

I'm sure that as more information is revealed my speculation will change. Maybe this pass will be just as bombastic as the first, or maybe it'll be more reserved than I think it will be now. Because of this, I tried to cover as many bases as I could, as each of the above characters (except Gex) has a real chance of inclusion based on how this Pass' composition was determined.

So please, don't throw hate my way or include me in any celebratory "haha in your face my character got in despite what you said" posts just because I gave counterarguments for your character or said that they're not the likeliest in my opinion. I'm sure that'll happen anyways, but whatever.

Regardless, I hope this piece has provided a wider perspective on character speculation. There's truly a lot to consider when it comes to a character's chances, and when there are so many unknowns and hypotheticals at play it can be difficult to look at the wider picture. I believe you can take this general thought process and apply it to speculation as a whole–not just specifically pertaining to Square Enix–and I implore my readers to do so.

To close, I hope you're all staying well and safe throughout these crazy times. We'll get through this together.

Now that these essays are over, I think I might take a break from longform speculation. The process of writing a speculation essay is quite draining, and can take anywhere from a couple of hours to a couple of days depending on different factors (time spent researching/outlining, length, motivation, technical difficulties, etc). I'd also like to focus on my real life a bit as I return to college in a little under a month, and I'd like to get some things in order before I go. There are a couple of characters I'm interested in covering, and I might write about them in short form as a continuation of my Characters to Look Out for in Ultimate DLC, but I won't make any promises as to such.

Until next time!

 

[kylexv]

Starting to get the feeling this Mini Direct was NoJ's Idea. Clearly NoA thought it wasn't neccessary because half of the games revealed in the Japanese direct were revealed in English through a tweet.

I mean, if Paper Mario can be revealed through a tweet, so can everything here except SMTV.

 

[Captain Shwampy]

Incredible Thumbnail

 

[Shroob]

*Sukuna, is not in the Direct*

*Immediately tweet about it after the Direct*

 

[Droodle]

Not to rain on your parade, but I would bet it's going into the Evidence.zip that shows Geno is in.

If I don't pay attention to the list, then it practically doesn't exist. R-right?

Oh who am I kidding, it'll probably brought up constantly as huge deal that means that Geno is practically a lock, even though it makes 0 sense for Gamestop to have that information months ahead of time (assuming 7 gets revealed in August/September). They'll probably also add in how the video was altered in stores is also a big thing, when in reality they probably didn't want the thing to blow up even more after they confirmed they knew nothing.

I just don't get why certain people try to use convoluted "theories" in a roundabout way in order to confirm that their character is a hard lock, when their are simpler explanations for such things.

For example (going back to the Gamestop "leak") people who supported the leak stated that Nintendo wouldn't want to take down the video because it would confirm it, and they're letting the leak stay up on purpose. Then once Gamestop made their statements about how they did not know anything and it was poorly worded, they say that it "feels" like an excuse. And then when they edit out that portion, they say it's "practically confirmed".

To me that feels like such a stupid idea, considering that it was pretty CLEAR that they were talking about Geno's presence in 4/Ultimate already, the fact that they apologized (regardless of how poor the "execution" was) should have been all the confirmation that you need that they genuinely have 0 idea if Geno is in Smash as a fighter. Even if he hypothetically got announced today, that "leak" meant nothing if you think logically.

Another big thing that's brought up is the fact that the "Legacy XP" take downs were because Geno is in Smash, and Nintendo didn't want him competing in another mod. But the mod creators twitter pretty much spells out that it was his own decision after talking again with his attorney (who was already against the mod being public in the first place), and that Nintendo didn't contact him about the mod. But somehow that bit never gets mentioned in discussion.

 

[SKX31]

Actually I Got another Question

Who exactly at Nintendo is Choosing the Fighters. I assume it's not the Interns choosing them. Is it the President of NOJ, The President of NOA, is it all of them. Perhaps it could be the Shareholders

I'm guessing Nintendo's President (and Ultimate's Executive Producer) Shuntaro Furukawa plays a major role - and Sakurai probably gives his consent before they pursue the characters they do.

Sakurai's stated in the past that Nintendo (probably meaning Nintendo's higher ups) help make the final decision* and negotiate, so Furukawa would play a central role there by implication.

*(Edited to change wording, the original wording was too misleading.)

 

[3BitSaurus]

how it was revealed to be fake was ****ing

Fixed.

To be honest, I'm questioning if, in the event of a series of these small presentations, Nintendo chose to have some of its regular "E3 filler" coupled with one big hit (in this case, SMTV) for some kind of balance.

It's also pretty much what happened with the Paper Mario/Bakugan presentation.

Gotta say, if that is the case, it's one of the weirdest marketing tactics I've seen. But maybe that theory on cloud servers is on to something, and this is just their way of buying time.

 

[Shroob]

If I don't pay attention to the list, then it practically doesn't exist. R-right?

Oh who am I kidding, it'll probably brought up constantly as huge deal that means that Geno is practically a lock, even though it makes 0 sense for Gamestop to have that information months ahead of time (assuming 7 gets revealed in August/September). They'll probably also add in how the video was altered in stores is also a big thing, when in reality they probably didn't want the thing to blow up even more after they confirmed they knew nothing.

I just don't get why certain people try to usual convoluted "theories" in a roundabout way in order to confirm that their character is a hard lock, when their are simpler explanations for such things.

For example (going back to the Gamestop "leak") people who supported the leak stated that Nintendo wouldn't want to take down the video because it would confirm it, and they're letting the leak stay up on purpose. Then once Gamestop made their statements about how they did not know anything and it was poorly worded, they say that it "feels" like an excuse. And then when they edit out that portion, they say it's "practically confirmed".

To me that feels like such a stupid idea, considering that it was pretty CLEAR that they were talking about Geno's presence in 4/Ultimate already, the fact that they apologized (regardless of how poor the "execution" was) should have been all the confirmation that you need that they genuinely have 0 idea if Geno is in Smash as a fighter. Even if he hypothetically got announced today, that "leak" meant nothing if you think logically.

Another big thing that's brought up is the fact that the "Legacy XP" take downs were because Geno is in Smash, and Nintendo didn't want him competing in another mod. But the mod creators twitter pretty much spells out that it was his own decision after talking again with his attorney (who was already against the mod being public in the first place), and that Nintendo didn't contact him about the mod. But somehow that bit never gets mentioned in discussion.

The thing that kills Gamestop for me outright:


E3 was cancelled in March.

Insiders have said they get DLC character **** a day/few hours before the reveal


....so why would Gamestop have it in June, or earlier?

 

[MooMew64]

*Sukuna, is not in the Direct*

*Immediately tweet about it after the Direct*

View attachment 279505

Nintendo's marketing departments ATM:

Spoiler

Game is awesome looking, too. Really disappointed it didn't get more eyes on it.

 

[Deleted member]

This thread jumped over 10 pages the last time I looked at it, so I imagine there's a great amount of people wondering why Ryza 2 was only shown on the Japanese version.

Koei-Tecmo does a lot more advertising for their games in Japan than the West. It's usually the Japanese trailers come first and the english translations 2nd, so I'd expect the English version to drop at a later date. Whether if it's announced on NoA or KTA is remained to be seen.

 

[Nekoo]

Nintendo gives real leaks. Fake leakers give fake leaks. Even real leakers sometimes give fake leaks.

Jokes on you, the one famous time Nintendo genuinely tricked EVERYONE, insiders and leakers was at the TGA where they announced Joker, dropping the Metroid Prime Collection info to employee as "what would be presented at the VGA", the Joker segment never made it in the seven days of rehearsal of the VGA to avoid ALL leaks, it was planned, but never rehearsed.
The only time every single leakers and insiders took the biggest fattest "L" with no loophole, or excuses

 

[SirBillyBob]

SMT games are getting review-bombed on Metacritic due to salty fans.
EDIT EDIT: Apparently this has been going on since 2018.

 

[Speed Weed]

Using Daybreak's logic for a Bravely character (very good essay btw, I'm glad you got to finish it up before anything crazy happened) I think it's safe to say that a Shin Megami Tensei character is actually on the table, especially with Atlus already in negotiations thanks to Joker. Demifiend getting in would be a hell of a plot twist and yet with the Nintendo ties, two major releases coming to Switch, and Atlus's support of the platform, it's not unreasonable.

honestly?

although i do think smt has a shot now, and as much as i like smt and would love to see, say, demi-fiend, i'd probably be just a little disappointed, if only because i feel it's time we had another "classic" sega rep besides sonic at this point

but otherwise, hell yeah smt gang baybeeeee

 

[N3ON]

Jokes on you, the one famous time Nintendo genuinely tricked EVERYONE, insiders and leakers was at the TGA where they announced Joker, dropping the Metroid Prime Collection info to employee as "what would be presented at the VGA", the Joker segment never made it in the seven days of rehearsal of the VGA to avoid ALL leaks, it was planned, but never rehearsed.
The only time every single leakers and insiders took the biggest fattest "L" with no loophole, or excuses

Ah cool, so trust nobody. Very reassuring.

Wait a minute, that means I can't trust you anymore.

Which means... I trust Nintendo again. I knew they'd never lie. ^_^

 

[StrangeKitten]

People talking about Demifiend or Dante getting in, when the big brain play is to add both:

Spoiler

God I wish it would happen. I have a strong feeling it won't, though. Dante's chances are pretty good, but Demifiend's aren't

 

[GoodGrief741]

EDIT: Tweet got deleted.
SMT games are getting review-bombed on Metacritic due to salty fans.

Why the **** do people review-bomb games? Like what are they even expecting to achieve? Notoriety? "Angry people review-bomb old-ass game to complain about bad Nintendo Direct", yeah that sure is a headline, really telling off the people in charge.

 

[Droodle]

Jokes on you, the one famous time Nintendo genuinely tricked EVERYONE, insiders and leakers was at the TGA where they announced Joker, dropping the Metroid Prime Collection info to employee as "what would be presented at the VGA", the Joker segment never made it in the seven days of rehearsal of the VGA to avoid ALL leaks, it was planned, but never rehearsed.
The only time every single leakers and insiders took the biggest fattest "L" with no loophole, or excuses

Another famous time where Nintendo bamboozled everyone was like...

A day ago...

Maybe?

Sorry my memory is getting hazy.

 

[Flyboy]

honestly?

although i do think smt has a shot now, and as much as i like smt and would love to see, say, demi-fiend, i'd probably be just a little disappointed, if only because i feel it's time we had another "classic" sega rep besides sonic at this point

but otherwise, hell yeah smt gang baybeeeee

You could argue that SMT is a classic franchise, but I get what you mean. Between Puyo Puyo and Yakuza, as well as classic franchises like Streets of Rage and Phantasy Star, I have several characters I'd much prefer. Still, SMT isn't a bad choice at all and from a pure speculation standpoint it's worth keeping in the conversation.

 

[Megadoomer]

SMT games are getting review-bombed on Metacritic due to salty fans.
EDIT EDIT: Apparently this has been going on since 2018.

From what I've read, a lot of the review-bombing happened in 2018.

EDIT: the edit hadn't been made when I saw the post, though it must have been made before I clicked reply. Still, I have no idea why every game in the series would have been review-bombed two years ago.

 

[7NATOR]

I'm guessing Nintendo's President (and Ultimate's Executive Producer) Shuntaro Furukawa plays a major role - and Sakurai probably gives his consent before they pursue the characters they do.

Sakurai's stated in the past that Nintendo (probably meaning Nintendo's higher ups) help make the final decision* and negotiate, so Furukawa would play a central role there by implication.

*(Edited to change wording, the original wording was too misleading.)

Okay I think I finally get how the Selection goes. I just assumed Nintendo gave Sakurai a list and he had to choose

So it seems to be both ends. Sakurai could request character and Nintendo has to give Green light. and also Vice Versa.

The one thing I'm wondering is how does this apply to Rex. I Know he Likes the Game Specfically, but that doesn't totally mean Sakurai tried to request Rex. If Sakurai did request Rex and Nintendo Turned him down, what does that imply...

 

[ligersandtigons]

Demi-fiend or SMTV Protag.

If you had to pick one for the Fighter's Pass, who would you pick? Who do you think Nintendo/Sakurai would pick?

 

[Captain Shwampy]

Demi-fiend or SMTV Protag.

If you had to pick one for the Fighter's Pass, who would you pick? Who do you think Nintendo/Sakurai would pick?

Raidou

 

[-crump-]

SMT games are getting review-bombed on Metacritic due to salty fans.

BREAKING: Entitled Gamers Abuse Metacritic User Scores in Protest After Getting Feelings Hurt

NEXT: Water is Wet?? A Shocking Development

 

[CannonStreak]

BREAKING: Entitled Gamers Abuse Metacritic User Scores in Protest After Getting Feelings Hurt

NEXT: Water is Wet?? A Shocking Development

Man, the fact people do that; talk about sore losers.

 

[Sysreq]

Demi-fiend or SMTV Protag.

If you had to pick one for the Fighter's Pass, who would you pick? Who do you think Nintendo/Sakurai would pick?

I have no preference either way, but I imagine they might go for SMTV protag. I have to wonder how well they would be received though since if they did choose SMTV protag, it would be an obvious shill pick almost on the level of Corrin depending when they're released.

 

[SharkLord]

After everything's been said and done, I'm not too affected either way about the direct. There wasn't too much to affect me in the first place, honestly. Nintendo definitely could've been more clear with this-Explain how it's only a couple games and say how often it would be-But expectations were also set too high. It was a partner presentation; Mario's 35th anniversary isn't going to be revealed there.

If anything, I'm actually feeling better because Sakuna finally got a release date. I've been waiting ever since E3, man. I wanted that info, and I finally got it. I'd have preferred it to be in the English direct too, but we know when it's happening, and that's good enough for me. I'd make a Sakuna support thread, but I kinda feel like we need the game to actually release first. Still, as soon as I get through the game I'm making a support thread.

 

[Wunderwaft]

Demi-fiend or SMTV Protag.

If you had to pick one for the Fighter's Pass, who would you pick? Who do you think Nintendo/Sakurai would pick?

Demi-fiend

We know nothing about the SMTV protag besides that he's a pretty boy so gimme the one I know and love.

 

[StrangeKitten]

Demi-fiend or SMTV Protag.

If you had to pick one for the Fighter's Pass, who would you pick? Who do you think Nintendo/Sakurai would pick?

Demifiend for me. SMTV protag for Nintendo/Sakurai

 

[-crump-]

Demi-fiend or SMTV Protag.

If you had to pick one for the Fighter's Pass, who would you pick? Who do you think Nintendo/Sakurai would pick?

Demi-fiend!
I mean, I’d take either as long as they bring demons with them, but I generally prefer a fan favorite to a brand new protagonist.

...says the guy who mains DQXI Hero, lol

 

[Droodle]

Honestly speaking I think SMT chances went up; but only in a vacuum compared to it's chances beforehand. It's a little like how I feel about Neku and Travis. The fact that those series are active and getting some content in the future helps out a lot, but in the end they're still competing with dozens of other series or characters.

I guess the difference is that SMT has a far bigger legacy comparatively to characters like Neku and Travis. But a disadvantage would be that it's sister series was already featured in the first pass, which may or may not impact SMT's chances.

I still wouldn't really say a SMT character is "likely" in the overall vacuum though. Just in terms of likelihood of JRPG reps; I'd say it goes something like Xenoblade > Tales >> Kingdom Hearts >>> Bravely Default > Falcom series (Ys/Trails) > SMT in terms of top 6 (I don't count 3rd party repeats, or series like Digimon/Yokai Watch). But I can definitely see SMT Nocturne or 5 get spirit events around the time of their release.

Demi-Fiend would be cool so I'd want him on the low chance we do get a SMT character.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Demi-fiend or SMTV Protag.

If you had to pick one for the Fighter's Pass, who would you pick? Who do you think Nintendo/Sakurai would pick?

Guy from Strange Journey, the one with the cool helmet

Demi-fiend

We know nothing about the SMTV protag besides that he's a pretty boy so gimme the one I know and love.

Wait the SMTV protag in today's trailer was supposed to be a guy?

 

[Dalek_Kolt]

Wait the SMTV protag in today's trailer was supposed to be a guy?

I'm currently assuming they're Frisk Undertaling them to be ambiguously-gendered.

 

[Deleted member]

Man, the fact people do that; talk about sore losers.

The internet is simultaneously the best and worst thing that ever happened to society.

 

[Digital Hazard]

SMT games are getting review-bombed on Metacritic due to salty fans.
EDIT EDIT: Apparently this has been going on since 2018.

Okay but why?

I hear over and over how SMT fans tend to be salty at how Persona gets most of the spotlight, so why review bomb the series they actually like?

 

[CannonStreak]

The internet is simultaneously the best and worst thing that ever happened to society.

Maybe, but from a social perspective, I say it may be more worse than the best thing ever to happen. Slightly, maybe, but still.