Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[7NATOR]

I recall the new tag going down before Isabelle’s reveal, and I don’t think the new tag went away between Hero/Banjo and Terry either

I assumed this only Applied to DLC Characters . As for the Time between Herro/Banjo and Terry, I'm not sure, I took the guy's word on this. Like I said we'd have to do an investigation

 

[Rie Sonomura]

What was it, oh yes, the Sonic movie is the #2 Worldwide for the year so far. Behind Bad Boys for Life.

And the Sonic movie will see its Chinese release soon:

There was a problem fetching the tweet

There's just one game missing there IIRC:

View attachment 279473

For the theater rules
1. Reasonable
2. Good
3. A bit harsh but ok, I imagine face masks are enforced
4. Probably for the best to shorten potential exposure
5. .....WHAT? WHY? does the Chinese government actually LIKE Sonic 06??

 

[TwiceEXE]

At the same time, this isn't a first for them. As someone who followed the Ridley support thread(s) for years, it got to a point where most people stopped investing so much emotion into leaks and rumors. There had been so many broken promises, trolls, and fake leaks over the years that even Ridley supporters themselves were writing off Verge and several other insiders leaking Ridley for Ultimate.

Don't get me wrong, I completely understand the disappointment. It's the lack of caution which leads to outrage that confuses me. After all this time, the Geno thread really shouldn't have its bad reputation anymore. The thread should've gotten to a point where we can have a Direct or character reveal without fear of the thread being locked.

A large part of the problem lies in the fact that they have a hype man that gets everyone riled up by promising outlandish things are coming. All while trying to walk the line of "I have insider info" and "I'm just a speculator, don't call me out if my info is wrong".

Although, if you think about it, the actual problem is with the people who believe all that and keep going back to the well even though it comes up dry every time. All because they want to be whispered sweet nothings about how their character is a lock.

 

[Calamitas]

I Posted this on the Geno Thread because of the Hype Surrounding him, but this Is Also Especially useful for Speculation down the Road (Potentially)

A Fellow Brother on Gamefaqs might have found something interesting

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78859459/942350976

Shout out to Psystrike95. If you read the Post, it would seem that everytime that the New Tag dissappears, we get a 3rd Party Character. If the New Tag Stays up, we are getting a 1st Party Character (This seem to Apply to DLC Characters, I think with Base it was every character)

We need to do further investigation with the Internet Archive, but if this is actually a thing, This could be useful for Predicting Characters. Yes

Just like how music theory and blog theory turned out to be true for the base game, eh?

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

They got mentioned on twitter, so thats something... but i dont want to say not being shown on the na direct hurts them. That was more marketing being a colossal failure at NoA recently.

Got any actual evidence NoA directly chose what could be put in the direct and what couldn't?

You seem way to keen on blaming them while ignoring that other factors can exist. Like the companies actually having a say in how their IP is presented? These were even advertised as being companies Nintendo works with, which means Nintendo doesn't get to call every shot. There's always going to be behind the scene factors. They even noted that release dates could change due to COVID, but that's not the only reason a release date can change. Clearly it's not entirely in Nintendo's control, but we already knew that by the fact many are 3rd party games. Publishing a game doesn't entitle you to full control of the IP in itself. Often the most one can get is a specific publishing right for a specific game, but that's it. Bayonetta 2 is specific to Nintendo alone due to a publishing rights agreement. They have literally zero control of the IP beyond that but are allowed to do a lot(including advertising it in Playboy).

There's always going to be a lot of agreements and specifications. I agree it was silly to remove the three games from US one, but we lack any information as to why the 3rd party companies had negotiations to do that. How much was Nintendo? How much were the other companies? Etc.

 

[Nekoo]

Maybe it wasn’t intentional? Maybe Geno’s bait like with the Seven Squares list?

I can tell you and promise you that if Geno was a Bait, or I heard a direct "no" about him. I'd personally know about it.
And I'd do like what I did pre-release and during the Square-Enix saga and direcrly tell to the geno thread and fans that he's not in no matter what leaks they heard.

They legit suffered enough.

 

[Cosmic77]

Just like how music theory and blog theory turned out to be true for the base game, eh?

The music theory actually had some weight to it. The Happy Home Designer theme remix got pushed back when the Direct containing Isabelle was delayed, and they revealed a different remix instead.

A lot of people still say it was fake, but looking back, Incineroar was the only unique character it didn't apply to. Every other franchise that got a newcomer didn't get a remix until their character's reveal.

 

[Cap'n Jack]

Good. It was his all his fault anyway. How dare he tell us exactly when we'd get a Direct!

But seriously, I feel like other reliable sources added fuel to the fire and made this a bigger deal than it should've been. I get that things were changed, but they need to be more careful going forward.

Agreed. It was the various different Nintendo Media channels on YouTube that over hyped the Direct that have us all disappointed. But I feel like even they truly thought, much like Kellios that we’d be getting more announcements

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Kellios probably gonna be banned from ResetERA now...

 

[zferolie]

Got any actual evidence NoA directly chose what could be put in the direct and what couldn't?

You seem way to keen on blaming them while ignoring that other factors can exist. Like the companies actually having a say in how their IP is presented? These were even advertised as being companies Nintendo works with, which means Nintendo doesn't get to call every shot. There's always going to be behind the scene factors. They even noted that release dates could change due to COVID, but that's not the only reason a release date can change. Clearly it's not entirely in Nintendo's control, but we already knew that by the fact many are 3rd party games. Publishing a game doesn't entitle you to full control of the IP in itself. Often the most one can get is a specific publishing right for a specific game, but that's it. Bayonetta 2 is specific to Nintendo alone due to a publishing rights agreement. They have literally zero control of the IP beyond that but are allowed to do a lot(including advertising it in Playboy).

There's always going to be a lot of agreements and specifications. I agree it was silly to remove the three games from US one, but we lack any information as to why the 3rd party companies had negotiations to do that. How much was Nintendo? How much were the other companies? Etc.

Ok yes, i am being overly critical and assuming nintendo marketing is the one at fault here only. There may be more factors for sure. It just seems to a non business guy that any company would WANT to be shown on a nintendo direct or something simular.

Kellios probably gonna be banned from ResetERA now...

Why? He was right about the direct and the time, and he never said what was going to be in the direct...

 

[Deleted member]

How could you hear that there's a Direct tomorrow but not that its 3rd party only or that its part of a planned series of Directs (to at least give people pause and say there's going to be a slew of mini directs to temper expectations beforehand).

It'd be like leaking 'Marvel is going to announce a new X-men movie in the MCU!' only to be met with their umpteenth attempt at releasing New Mutants and the leaker going 'Oops...I meant they were announcing it eventually not right this second!'

Kellios probably gonna be banned from ResetERA now...

Doubtful. Zippo was wrong and he's still there. Plus, he was right in that there was a Direct...he just massively overplayed the excitement it would elicit in us.

 

[CannonStreak]

How could you hear that there's a Direct tomorrow but not that its 3rd party only or that its part of a planned series of Directs (to at least give people pause and say there's going to be a slew of mini directs to temper expectations beforehand).

It'd be like leaking 'Marvel is going to announce a new X-men movie in the MCU!' only to be met with their umpteenth attempt at releasing New Mutants and the leaker going 'Oops...I meant they were announcing it eventually not right this second!'


Doubtful. Zippo was wrong and he's still there. Plus, he was right in that there was a Direct...he just massively overplayed the excitement it would elicit in us.

Who said anything about a Direct tomorrow, if I read correctly?

 

[SKX31]

-30% capacity max + empty seat between each person.
-Temperature checks for customers
-No food and drink allowed
-No movies longer than 2 hours
-No criticism of Sonic 06 allowed

That is... oddly specific.

For the theater rules
1. Reasonable
2. Good
3. A bit harsh but ok, I imagine face masks are enforced
4. Probably for the best to shorten potential exposure
5. .....WHAT? WHY? does the Chinese government actually LIKE Sonic 06??

That's the joke: Sonic 06 didn't see an official release there at all.* Zhuge just likes to insert Sonic 06 jokes every now and then.

*(The Chinese government / regime banned consoles between 2000 and 2014. Nintendo did attempt to circumvent this by releasing their portable N64 - the iQue - in a joint venture, and portable consoles up to the 3DS under the iQue banner. Kinda similar to them designing the NES as a frontloader / VCS-like thing to get around the then recent Crash of '83 and many peoples' perception on video games in the aftermath. The government ended the ban probably because of stuff like what Nintendo was doing, and people there smuggled consoles into the country. Not in huge numbers, but enough to make the government give up on the ban.)

Ok yes, i am being overly critical and assuming nintendo marketing is the one at fault here only. There may be more factors for sure. It just seems to a non business guy that any company would WANT to be shown on a nintendo direct or something simular.

There are probably more factors here: considering that Bakungan was attached to the Paper Mario Treehouse stream instead of this Direct Mini, I find it decently likely that the recently shown games were negotiated ad hoc. Especially since Nintendo's going with Direct Minis for the next few months explicitedly because of the pandemic and the impact it has likely had on Nintendo's staff.

 

[SNEKeater]

smt peeps moving on to fighter pass 2

 

[Michael the Spikester]

https://twitter.com/genospapa/status/1285222881190907904?s=21

Gives me Shantae Smash window vibes but thought I'd post this.

 

[Calamitas]

Kellios probably gonna be banned from ResetERA now...

Why would he? He correctly what was happening and when it was gonna happen. It just didn't quite turn out to be what people were expecting.

 

[zferolie]

https://twitter.com/genospapa/status/1285222881190907904?s=21

Gives me Shantae Smash window vibes but thought I'd post this.

A few people have said this, and we all know its most likely not a hint, but it is funny still.

 

[SharkLord]

https://twitter.com/genospapa/status/1285222881190907904?s=21

Gives me Shantae Smash window vibes but thought I'd post this.

I think a couple people have pointed this out already.

 

[chocolatejr9]

https://twitter.com/genospapa/status/1285222881190907904?s=21

Gives me Shantae Smash window vibes but thought I'd post this.

*sign* And the cycle begins anew...

 

[Cosmic77]

Nobody can make a generic envelope without people interpreting it as a Smash hint.

 

[Mr. Robotto]

So I was finally able to watch the mini Direct. And all I can say with a sigh of relief is...

Thank you Atlus. For not forgetting one of your most important and beloved franchises.

Oh yeah, and for learning how to do worldwide releases. But yeah, SMTIII AND SMTV HYPE WE MOVE

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Ok yes, i am being overly critical and assuming nintendo marketing is the one at fault here only. There may be more factors for sure. It just seems to a non business guy that any company would WANT to be shown on a nintendo direct or something simular.

Which is fair to assume at first.

But you've been educated already on how business and IP ownership works, so that excuse doesn't hold anymore. There's quite literally no proof that NOA is at fault for this. I suggest instead of misblaming them, you take a break or talk about something else.

Keep in mind the direct being disappointing is not the same thing. Not everybody is going to be excited. But blaming someone you can't even properly pinpoint it to? There's no reason for it. It's just as bad as people blaming the leakers for just saying what they know. Not thinking they're credible is pretty fair. Attacking them is not.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Nobody can make a generic envelope without people interpreting it as a Smash hint.

Well, I know how I'm gonna feel when the next KoF game gets a trailer.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I wonder if given the 27th and 3rd of August maintainances that Nintendo has split what was going to be E3 or a general direct into separate mini-directs. Worth keeping an eye for next week and the week after.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

https://twitter.com/genospapa/status/1285222881190907904?s=21

Gives me Shantae Smash window vibes but thought I'd post this.

How does he not see BlunZ (guy he QRTed) was being sarcastic

 

[SharkLord]

I wonder if given the 23rd and 3rd of August maintainances that Nintendo has split what was going to be E3 or a general direct into separate mini-directs. Worth keeping a eye for next week and the week after.

*27th, actually. Still, I do believe we'll get something then. I think Kelios said a big first-party Direct would be happening after this one before he gave up on us, right? And I've also heard that an investor meeting would be held in August, so the 27th would be the most logical place to do so. It helps that the Pokemon Directs were a week apart, and the NEW tab going away gives more weight to a first-party presentation.

 

[zferolie]

Which is fair to assume at first.

But you've been educated already on how business and IP ownership works, so that excuse doesn't hold anymore. There's quite literally no proof that NOA is at fault for this. I suggest instead of misblaming them, you take a break or talk about something else.

Keep in mind the direct being disappointing is not the same thing. Not everybody is going to be excited. But blaming someone you can't even properly pinpoint it to? There's no reason for it. It's just as bad as people blaming the leakers for just saying what they know. Not thinking they're credible is pretty fair. Attacking them is not.

All true. I guess i just wish they were just all in the direct. I mean, what if i didnt use twitter, or was told there was a japanese direct too? I can see people missing out on games they could like because of odd choices like this.

As someone trying to make his own video game, i would be taking ever opportunity i could to get peoples attention on it, as long as i didnt lose any rights to it. I wouldnt think being shown on a direct would do that.

 

[CannonStreak]

How do we know that the next Direct is an actual Direct anyway, and not the next in this partnership series?

 

[Cutie Gwen]

smt peeps moving on to fighter pass 2

Here's where it reveals Sakurai hates Persona fans and wants to rightfully put SMT back on the throne, be it Demifiend or the new guy, one of their gimmicks is deal triple damage to Joker specifically

 

[Mr. Robotto]

Well, I know how I'm gonna feel when the next KoF game gets a trailer.

Talking about King of Fighers, KOFXV was slated for a 2020 release date and we haven't even had a general reveal yet. Kind of saddens me it's pretty much implied to be delayed at this point. It's one of the games I'm looking the most forward to at this point along with SMT and GG Strive.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

My guesses:
27th: full direct, mostly first party with a few third party exclusives (Bayo 3, maybe TWEWY 2) and an announcement of...
3rd of August: a Smash presentation on this day with FP7, their gameplay breakdown, any new features and Mii costumes, and a quick trailer of FP8 with that fighter’s presentation in October

 

[GoodGrief741]

Well that was a complete and utter embarrassment. Only five games? Seriously? With that content, they might as well have shadowdropped it. I mean, DLC for an indie game, a ****ty WWE game, a generic multiplayer shooter that spoiled their own inclusion, and two SMT games? That's trash tier. Thank God for SMTV being alive, but they didn't even show gameplay, so even that's kinda disappointing. Nocturne remake is cool, it's a good gateway into SMT, but it's easily my least favorite game in the franchise and the one that needed a remake the least so I can't say I'm personally excited. As for the rest... Not even worth commenting on.

Furukawa told investors their 2020 lineup hasn't been affected by the pandemic. So either they have something, and are stubbornly refusing to market it in typical Nintendo fashion... Or they never had anything even before the virus hit. Either way, not a great look.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

All true. I guess i just wish they were just all in the direct. I mean, what if i didnt use twitter, or was told there was a japanese direct too? I can see people missing out on games they could like because of odd choices like this.

As someone trying to make his own video game, i would be taking ever opportunity i could to get peoples attention on it, as long as i didnt lose any rights to it. I wouldnt think being shown on a direct would do that.

What happens if people don't use Twitch and Youtube? That's kind of the issue with these kind of statements. Most people do, as it's the core audience.

That said, I do agree putting it more out there is a good idea. Sadly companies don't care to. Companies these days can be godawful at advertising. Nintendo's gotten better about it, and they have given TOK a lot more advertisement than some games, admittedly.

 

[Sari]

https://twitter.com/genospapa/status/1285222881190907904?s=21

Gives me Shantae Smash window vibes but thought I'd post this.

Super Smash Bros. invented red stamped letters.

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

Super Smash Bros. invented red stamped letters.

And then Nintendo used a time machine to insert them into the past, conditioning us for the future where all things point to Smash.

 

[Slime Master]

Spreading the content across multiple different mini directs is actually a really good idea IMO; it lets you just watch the ones you're interested in (or can watch), spreads the hype out, and adds a little bit of leeway for making them. The problem is if that is what Nintendo's doing, they should have told us ahead of time.

 

[Calamitas]

Actually, one thought I was having. Even Kelios was caught off-guard by what this Mini Direct actually wound up being, which suggests to me that there's really some chaos going on behind the scenes at Nintendo. That would restore some credence to that hotgirl person, who said something similar when that 6th of July date wound up being nothing.

 

[The Rhythm Theif]

It feels so good watching the people who believed the leaks suffer knowing that I was right all along.

There wasn't a direct, but a direct mini, and Cadence of Hyrule got more content.

 

[zferolie]

What happens if people don't use Twitch and Youtube? That's kind of the issue with these kind of statements. Most people do, as it's the core audience.

That said, I do agree putting it more out there is a good idea. Sadly companies don't care to. Companies these days can be godawful at advertising. Nintendo's gotten better about it, and they have given TOK a lot more advertisement than some games, admittedly.

I probably gave a bad example there.

Now i just saw this and found it funny. The Tecmo Koei Twitter for NA specifically said did you watch the japanese direct mini to see the announcment for the new Ryza game. This is so funny and odd situation here.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Skull Kid confirmed for Smash.