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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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Luigi The President

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After finishing my Platinum run of Kingdom Hearts 2FM (Nintendo really needs an achievement system), I present to you Part 3 of:

The Second Square Enix Character Argument


To catch up on the series so far, please refer to:
This time, I'll be covering Sora and Geno, two of the most popular characters in speculation in two of the most...peculiar states.

Or rather, I was supposed to cover Sora and Geno.

However, both are phenomenally long reads (the Geno essay is slightly over 2,000 words, and the Sora essay is over 3,500 words at about 90% completion), so I decided to break them up into individual parts to lessen reader fatigue and encourage discussion on each character individually. I'll be posting the Geno essay first as it's been complete for about a day or so, and I'll follow it up with the Sora essay in a day or two. I apologize for the inconvenience, but I think in the long run it'll be better for reading and discussion.

Let's talk about everyone's favorite (or least favorite) puppet. Debuting in 1997's Super Mario RPG, Geno has certainly made an impact on the wider Smash fandom.

I'll begin this essay with an admission. After reviewing my previous writing on Geno in 2018's Ultimate Square Enix Character Argument, I noticed the incredibly biased nature of my argument. As such, in writing this essay I consulted with some friends of mine who support Geno and bounced ideas off of them so as to be less biased and more objective. I'd really like to give credit to Luigi The President Luigi The President and Shotostar for their help here.

All this being said, in this essay intend to be objective towards Geno and his chances, which means looking at both the good and the bad. If you're looking for an essay purely extolling the virtues of Geno, I'd advise you close this spoiler tab now.

Acknowledgements out of the way, I intend to structure this essay in two distinct sections: The Good and The Not So Good. The Good section consists of points purely in favor of Geno's inclusion, whereas The Not So Good section consists of points that may be in favor of Geno's inclusion, detrimental to Geno's inclusion, or could simply mean nothing at all.

The Good

Let's begin with the obvious: Fan demand. Fan demand is by far the strongest point in favor of Geno. Following the reveal of Ridley, a long time fan request since Brawl, demand for King K. Rool and Geno, the other two members of the "Holy Trinity" of impossible requests increased. With K. Rool's reveal, fan demand for Geno skyrocketed. He consistently scores high on fan polls, and been around as a request since at least the Brawl days, if not earlier. His fan demand is so great to the point where Sakurai directly acknowledged as such in his 2016 Nintendo Dream interview, saying:




At the very least, Sakurai was aware of significant demand for Geno in 2016 (when his popularity was arguably at an all time low), and I highly doubt he wouldn't be aware of the significant demand for him now. And when Ultimate seems to be gunning for popular fan requests, including those primarily from the West like Ridley and Banjo, it's not difficult to understand why people would think Geno is in line for inclusion based largely on his popularity.

Speaking of Sakurai's 2016 Nintendo Dream interview, he also had this to say on Geno:




Geno is quite possibly the only character Sakurai has expressed an active interest in having as a unique, playable character. He even cites the Rule of Cool reasoning of him having a gun hand. This is also one of the few points of evidence for Geno that simply can't be disputed. It's a rather strong point in his favor, especially when paired with the acknowledgement of his fan demand.

Additionally, there's a point to be made about Super Mario RPG's longevity as a singular game. While certainly not as prominent as its contemporaries Chrono Trigger or Final Fantasy 6, it's stayed around in the form of rereleases and mentions from Nintendo. It was released on both Wii (which was the first release of SMRPGI in Europe) and Wii U Virtual Console, and most recently appeared on the SNES Mini. The original game did relatively well sales wise, selling around 2 million units by 1997, which is rather impressive if you ask me. It is unknown how many units the virtual console re-releases sold, but the SNES Classic Edition has sold 5 million units as of 2018, which, while not dedicated sales numbers for SMRPG, at the very least signify a significant install base that has been exposed to SMRPG in one way or another. Furthermore, this tweet from Nintendo of America and a question alluding to Geno in this tie-in quiz for The Game Awards show that SMRPG has stayed in the zeitgeist of gaming over the years. While it's uncertain how this ties into Geno's chances for Smash, I believe this point is important nonetheless.

Finally, one of the stronger arguments for Geno is the relative ease with which Nintendo could hypothetically acquire him for. There's already precedent for negotiating with Square for Geno in Smash, both for Sm4sh and Ultimate. The game's composer, Yoko Shinomura, has also composed for Smash before, which could make music negotiations another relatively straightforward process. However, I personally believe this to be too large of a hypothetical to be a significant point, as other Square Enix characters like Neku or a character from the Bravely series could also be relatively straightforward in negotiations, which would mean this is not a distinct advantage Geno has. However, given how widely this point is cited and how it largely holds up to what we know, I believe it's worth mentioning as a net positive for Geno.

The Not So Good

I'll be using this section to discuss other points in the discourse surrounding Geno that could mean something, either good or bad, or mean absolutely nothing at all.

Let's start with an addendum to the point on Geno's fan demand. A lot of people equivocate Geno to Banjo, or at least paint the two in a similar light. This makes sense. Both are large fan requests that were seemingly impossible for one reason or another. However, with Banjo's inclusion in Fighters Pass 1, a lot of people think Geno is sure to follow. However, I wouldn't be too sure of that.

A large part of Banjo's inclusion was the long relationship between Nintendo and Microsoft on Rare IPs and Phil Spencer's active support of Banjo in Smash. There was an established precedent of Nintendo and Microsoft working together to get Rare games on Nintendo platforms, which facilitated Banjo's inclusion in Smash. While Nintendo and Square Enix have worked together to re-release SMRPG a couple of times, I am unsure whether their relationship in this regard is analogous to Nintendo and Microsoft's in this case.

Furthermore, Phil Spencer's support of Banjo allowed for Nintendo to get Banjo specifically, instead of Minecraft Steve or Master Chief, both of which are seemingly better picks from a business/promotional aspect. It is unknown if such support exists for Geno within Square Enix, and I would honestly doubt the existence of such. Taking a look at Square Enix's crossovers, you'll notice a lot of them are promotional in nature. Noctis in Tekken promoted Final Fantasy XV, Behemoth in Monster Hunter World promoted Final Fantasy XIV, 2B in Soulcalubur 6 promoted Nier Automata, and Hero in Smash promoted Dragon Quest XIS: Echoes of an Elusive Age Definitive Edition for the Nintendo Switchtm. Comparatively, Geno has no promotional value for Square Enix, nor will he anytime soon if this remark from SMRPG director Yoshihiko Maekawa is to be trusted. If presented with the opportunity to negotiate for another character in Smash, I don't know if Square Enix would willingly decide to add Geno, who has no promotional value to the company, over another character from one of their active series.

Related to this, the question of why Geno hasn't gotten into Smash at this point is one worth mentioning. In the aforementioned Nintendo Dream interview, Sakurai says this:




Why exactly things didn't pan out is unstated, but taking a look at Square Enix's crossovers, it's not completely unreasonable to think Square Enix has some reason for not including Geno as a unique, playable character. his where the Spirit, online icon, and Mii Costume could come in: ways of satisfying fans while working around Square Enix's unwillingness to give full rights to Geno in Smash. This could be a non-point, however, and I'll acknowledge that the reason Geno didn't get in to Brawl could be due to another reason, such as the infamous time constraints that Brawl's development suffered from. Regardless, the point still stands that Geno has yet to be added when Pac-Man, Villager, Miis, and even Ridley have all made the jump to playable status despite being denied for one reason or another, which, at least to me, seems suspect.

Speaking of Mii Costumes, it's definitely a good sign that Geno's has yet to show up, especially when a Square Enix character has already come as a DLC character. However, as of right now a majority of Mii Costumes have returned from Sm4sh, and this time around it seems like they're not always tied to the Challenger Pack they release alongside. After all, people though the lack of Heihachi's Mii Costume meant good things for his chances, and then this happened:
The fact that Geno's Mii Costume has yet to appear, while seemingly good for his chances, is not a definite point in his favor.

Discussing Mii Costumes, it's also important to discuss premium Mii Costumes. Sans, Cuphead, and most recently Vault Boy have all been added as Mii Costumes to both expand the large crossover that is Ultimate and satisfy fan demands that aren't as realizable for one reason or another. It's feasible that Geno, who has already received a Mii Costume that surely performed well, could simply see an upgraded, premium Mii Costume to satisfy his large fan demand.

I'm not going to seriously acknowledge Cacomallow because it's not worth serious discussion. It's been recreated, showing that it could easily just be a mod, and Nintendo still hasn't taken it down despite taking videos down for less. I figured I would at least mention it as some Geno fans still use it as a point in his favor. It's not.

Finally, let's talk about the argument that Spirits disconfirm. With Min Min's recent confirmation, it seems the floodgates have opened on Spirit upgrades from the base game, of which Geno is one. Great news!

Right? Not necessarily.

It's well known that the inclusion of an ARMS character was a special request from Nintendo that Sakurai took on. In this case, a Spirit upgrade is almost necessary, as not using the Spirits included in the base game would lock Sakurai out of the two mascots of the series, Spring Man and Ribbon Girl, as well as two of the most popular characters in the game, Min Min and Ninjara. Not upgrading would have been far too limiting in this case, so to fulfill Nintendo's request, he went with Min Min, the most popular character and the personal favorite of ARMS producter Kosuke Yabuki. So, while it seems like base Spirits are back on the table, it could also only be in special cases such as this. As of right now there's not enough evidence to show that Min Min is the establishment of the rule, rather than an exception.

In Closing

Geno is truly in a peculiar state. He's one of the most popular characters in Speculation, and he's appeared in Smash in one for or another twice now. However, despite this, there seems to be some force that's keeping him from making the jump to fully playable. He's truly 50/50 in my opinion, as there are as many points in his favor as there are against him. It ultimately comes down to what Square Enix decides. Do they let Nintendo appeal to core fans with Geno, or go for more promotion of their existing series? Personally, I believe if faced with the choice Square Enix would go for the latter, especially considering that they can still appeal to core Nintendo fans with characters like Neku or someone from the Bravely series. I'll acknowledge that they could certainly go for the former though, and if Nintendo wants to appeal to core fans, which they definitely seem prone to do, Geno would be a great pick to do so and I'd call his chances even better if this occurs.

It depends on a lot of factors however, and while I personally doubt it, it could really go either way.

Following the Sora essay I'll wrap up the series by discussing the Bravely Default series and Neku. I'll also provide some closing thoughts before compiling all the essays together in a large master post. We're nearing the end, so I hope you're enjoyed so far and continue to enjoy going forward!
Just here to let all potential Geno stans and other crazies know I am one of your elders and this is my boy right here. I am his security guard. Ya gonna have to go through me first.

Ok bye read TPC's essay.
 

kevinthedot

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Honestly the notion that Nintendo was paid a decent amount of money to give Unite and Bakugan their own showcases is far more of a relief to me than the idea that they could look at either project and conclude they were worthy of their individual spotlight. Shameless shilling may not be ideal, but at least there's financial logic to promoting things that appear that underwhelming.
Looking at the directs as potential advertising space that Nintendo sells to third parties on top of their main title announcements makes a lot of past ones make more sense.
Like Contra Rogue Corps. Don't think Nintendo ever really had faith in that one, but hey if Konami wants to shell out hard cash to showcase their terrible trailer, by all means.
 

Animegamingnerd

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Looking at the directs as potential advertising space that Nintendo sells to third parties on top of their main title announcements makes a lot of past ones make more sense.
Like Contra Rogue Corps. Don't think Nintendo ever really had faith in that one, but hey if Konami wants to shell out hard cash to showcase their terrible trailer, by all means.
As much as I enjoyed Nintendo's E3 direct last year and in part due some nice third party suprises like Collection of Mana, Trials of Mana and The Witcher 3 being the big third party game reveals in my opinion. You can tell certain third parties like Konami with Contra Rogue Corps and whoever made that Dark Crystal game just simply paid to be in the show.
 
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LiveStudioAudience

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Looking at the directs as potential advertising space that Nintendo sells to third parties on top of their main title announcements makes a lot of past ones make more sense.
Like Contra Rogue Corps. Don't think Nintendo ever really had faith in that one, but hey if Konami wants to shell out hard cash to showcase their terrible trailer, by all means.
E3 2019 definitely seemed to have that deal at work. The Dark Crystal tie in game doesn't exactly seem like obvious Direct material, but Jim Henson Studios (and really Disney) have the deep pockets for advertisement, so why not?
 

SKX31

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Honestly the notion that Nintendo was paid a decent amount of money to give Unite and Bakugan their own showcases is far more of a relief to me than the idea that they could look at either project and conclude they were worthy of their individual spotlight.
In Unite's case, Tencent is the type of company to throw money at reveals, conferences and advertising in general. Unite's also considered big ticket enough for Tencent to establish its LA office. In Bakungan's case... well: “There is only one thing in the world worse than being talked about, and that is not being talked about.” . And both games are squarely aimed at a more casual crowd. Makes sense that they'd both be separated from the Direct.
 

Sysreq

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Was curious as to what the WF game was gonna be in the Treehouse since WF makes quality games, even their licensed ones, but damn, even this was disappointing.
 

SNEKeater

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There was a problem fetching the tweet

This is a particular situation. I don't think Zhuge is making a hint with this tweet and his wording, but Nintendo definitely will have to say something soon. So a Direct happening soon seems a given, specially when there are some credible people backing it.
 
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Faso115

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you can never go wrong with dissapointment.

At least Paper Mario fans are happy...i guess
 

AceAttorney9000

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There was a problem fetching the tweet

This is a particular situation. I don't think Zhuge is making a hint with this tweet and his wording, but Nintendo definitely will have to say something soon. So a Direct happening soon seems a given, specially when there are some credible people backing it.
Seeing Bayonetta 3 still stuck a friggin' TBA date at this point long after it was announced back in 2017 is just painful.

Really hoping the supposed upcoming Direct will deliver the goods on that... and on everything else as well.
 

Sc_Ev0lution

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NMH 3 should also be on that list, esp if they're including BD 2.

Edit: the reason why BD 2 is there is because it's being published by Nintendo, at least in the west. NMH 3 is being published by Grasshopper and/or Marvelous.
 
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Teeb147

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So, considering how long they waited to reveal the arms character, how much time now before the next reveal? August? september? more?
 

AceAttorney9000

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So, considering how long they waited to reveal the arms character, how much time now before the next reveal? August? september? more?
I personally expect the reveal to be sometime before September, either within July (especially if the Direct rumors are true) or August. Unless something went horribly wrong during development, Fighter 7 has to at least be ready for a reveal after that long waiting period. And by "reveal" I mean a bare minimum Terry-style reveal with no gameplay.
 
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Teeb147

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Assuming the July Direct rumors are true, maybe then, and released somewhere in Fall 2020?
I personally expect the reveal to be sometime before September, either within July (especially if the Direct rumors are true) or August. Unless something went horribly wrong during development, Fighter 7 has to at least be ready for a reveal after that long waiting period. And by "reveal" I mean a bare minimum Terry-style reveal with no gameplay.
I guess I'm a small bit pessimistic in that i dont think it'd be as soon as july for the reveal, but that'd be great :)
I'm sure things aren't as bad in japan now, but it was a crazy long wait for this character (min min).
 

PK-remling Fire

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If the fighter isn't revealed in July, my money's on it being revealed September. Just because a direct might happen doesn't guarantee a smash character reveal will go along with it.

Though the worst thing they could do is hint us with the series and leave it at that for a few months again.
 

Shroob

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If the fighter isn't revealed in July, my money's on it being revealed September. Just because a direct might happen doesn't guarantee a smash character reveal will go along with it.

Though the worst thing they could do is hint us with the series and leave it at that for a few months again.
That'll be the first General Direct without Smash news since Smash 4 if that's the case(Ignoring of course the lull between Smash 4 and March 2018).


Not unlikely, but I'd put more money on it than not.
 
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SirBillyBob

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I can't see Nintendo not having Smash info of any kind in their next direct. They know people love coming to see who might potentially be revealed. The very fact that they go out of their way to inform people that something doesn't have Smash info tells me they know. At the very least I could see them telling us about an upcoming Smash presentation, opting to reveal the character then.
 
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kevinthedot

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I REALLY want some Bayo 3 stuff. Like, have the big sections of the direct where they show gameplay be Bayo 3 and maybe Prime 4 if there's anything to show if it.
There's so much potential for where the story of Bayo 3 can go now that the time loops nice and closed up from 1 and 2.
 

Shroob

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I REALLY want some Bayo 3 stuff. Like, have the big sections of the direct where they show gameplay be Bayo 3 and maybe Prime 4 if there's anything to show if it.
There's so much potential for where the story of Bayo 3 can go now that the time loops nice and closed up from 1 and 2.
SMT Fans
Bayonetta 3 Fans
Metroid Prime 4 Fans


All united under the banner of "This ****'s never coming out, is it?"
 

SirBillyBob

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info dump.jpg

Maybe one day, maybe one day.
I'd also like to take this opportunity to shill my new Jonesy thread. Please come and check it out ok bye.
 

Animegamingnerd

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One thing that might be against a Smash reveal during this direct is that Fighter's Pass 2 is planned to be release through a longer span of time, this time lasting up to two years despite only being 6 characters and it took us 6 months to get the first chapter for it, so it is reasonable to believe that we might ended up seeing longer gap for reveals and releases as oppose to FP1.
 

MooMew64

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IDK how to feel about Origami King lol.

Like, I've seen such mixed reactions on it that I'm really tempted to try it myself. Like, there seems to be a lot of people countering the negativity with positivity, and the writing and level design look interesting...

...but $60 is a lot to gamble on what might be really bleh in the end so:

Mario_shrug.png

I still stand by my posts yesterday that the way they treat the franchise overall is lame, though.
 

CapitaineCrash

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One thing that might be against a Smash reveal during this direct is that Fighter's Pass 2 is planned to be release through a longer span of time, this time lasting up to two years despite only being 6 characters and it took us 6 months to get the first chapter for it, so it is reasonable to believe that we might ended up seeing longer gap for reveals and releases as oppose to FP1.
I think a July announcement is still possible. And hypothetical timeline could look like this:
FP7: announce July, released August
FP8: Announce November, release December or January
FP9: Announce in March, release on April or May
FP10: Announce June (e3 2021), released July or august
FP11: Announce in September, released in October or November

This timeline would make so that we only wait like 2-3 months between fighters announcement and fighters release and the last fighter still release late 2021.
 
D

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I think a July announcement is still possible. And hypothetical timeline could look like this:
FP7: announce July, released August
FP8: Announce November, release December or January
FP9: Announce in March, release on April or May
FP10: Announce June (e3 2021), released July or august
FP11: Announce in September, released in October or November

This timeline would make so that we only wait like 2-3 months between fighters announcement and fighters release and the last fighter still release late 2021.
I'd have more faith in that timeline if the virus wasn't slowing down nearly everything in existence. Development probably took a hit and slowed down at least a little bit. I wouldn't be surprised by a Reveal by the end of July, but I wouldn't imagine the release until September; not August.

We may be more starved for information since they may decide to work on two characters more closely than before so they can get two released nearly back to back. You know, hold off on info and release a month more than normal so they can essentially have two characters in a row (like a September & October drop with possibly one more ready by late January).
 
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StrangeKitten

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Yeah, December 2021 is far yet close at the same time. They can't keep going on six month stretches of no release unless they delay the Pass massively. Which would be forgivable given the circumstances, but they have made no indication that they're planning on doing so. To stick to the planned deadline, a reveal should happen soon. And I mean, they work on fighters in bunches. I don't see how they wouldn't have one ready for a reveal by now. Doesn't have to be a CGI trailer or show many/any moves. It could just show the character
 

SnowClaws

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For anyone who wasn't aware:
There was a problem fetching the tweet

Look likes Warframe is going to be the first official Tencent content in Smash.
 

CapitaineCrash

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I'd have more faith in that timeline if the virus wasn't slowing down nearly everything in existence. Development probably took a hit and slowed down at least a little bit. I wouldn't be surprised by a Reveal by the end of July, but I wouldn't imagine the release until September; not August.

We may be more starved for information since they may decide to work on two characters more closely than before so they can get two released nearly back to back. You know, hold off on info and release a month more than normal so they can essentially have two characters in a row (like a September & October drop with possibly one more ready by late January).
That's fair, but accoring to Sakurai development is going smoothly despite the virus. Also I want to point that in the March mini direct the announcer said "this fighter is a bit unusual thanks for their extendable arms, so we have to extend our developement time too". Assuming that those presentation are pre-record well in advance, it seems that it's not covid-19 that make Min min developement so long but more balancing issues and other stuff. I think the other fighters might release faster than Min min.
 
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SharkLord

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That's fair, but accoring to Sakurai development is going smoothly despite the virus. Also I want to point that in the March mini direct the announcer said "this fighter is a bit unusual thanks for their extendable arms, so we have to extend our developement time too". Assuming that those presentation are pre-record well in advance, it seems that it's not covid-19 that make Min min developement so long but more balancing issues and other stuff. I think the other fighters might release faster than Min min.
If I remember correctly, an interview said development was going well, but marketing took a hit. I'm pretty sure we'll get the DLC on schedule, but we won't know about them until closer to release. Then again, Japan's been handling COVID pretty well, so we might get an announcement in the hypothetical July Direct anyways.
 

Guynamednelson

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an interview said development was going well, but marketing took a hit.
The way the Min Min Presentation was handled could've been the way marketing took a hit. No dub, it's at Sakurai's house instead of his office, is that not affecting it?
 
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venomthebest

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does anyone else think that a battletoads mii costume, deluxe or not would be awesome?!
1594441734532.png
 
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SharkLord

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The way the Min Min Presentation was handled could've been the way marketing took a hit. No dub, it's at Sakurai's house instead of his office, is that not affecting it?
Probably. It was filmed around the time COVID's peak was just beginning, and everywhere was heavily affected at that time (Unless there's a country that somehow managed to escape mostly unscathed at that time). If a presentation was filmed around now, I'd image it could at least be dubbed, but back then people were just getting used to lockdown, and production was probably affected the most around that time.
 

Swamp Sensei

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There was a problem fetching the tweet

NOOOOOOOOOOO

This makes me so sad....
 

GoodGrief741

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There was a problem fetching the tweet

NOOOOOOOOOOO

This makes me so sad....
Well, I dunno if this spells good or bad news for Ace Attorney 7. Takumi is still working at Capcom, so if he's in charge then it's all good, but if Yamazaki was directing and he's leaving...

Can't say I'm too torn up, AAI1 was great but AAI2 and DD had problems and SoJ really dropped the ball in most departments. Was hoping for a change in direction and it looks like it's come true.
 
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