Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Will]

Nihilist theory didn’t used to be called Nihilist theory. It used to be called using your head

This sounds like a boomer comment but you ain't wrong.

 

[Calane]

Daisy's dress glitch? The conclusion is clearly obvious!

I put too much effort into this bad quality image.

(Before anyone misunderstands, this was meant to be a joke, so please don't think I'm being serious with this.)

 

[GoodGrief741]

So what I'm getting from all this is there's a glitch that makes Daisy lose her dress? Good boys and girls my ass.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

So what I'm getting from all this is there's a glitch that makes Daisy lose her dress? Good boys and girls my ass.

The glitch shrinks it to be a big skirt

 

[GoodGrief741]

The glitch shrinks it to be a big skirt

'Twas an attempt at a joke

 

[osby]

Picture of the Day:

pic.twitter.com/WFXllKUabo

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) July 4, 2020

aka accurate representation of my room when I turn off the AC for five minutes.

 

[Speed Weed]

Speaking of TWEWY. This was from the Neku support thread.

https://twitter.com/ObeseRob/status/1278441005319159823

i don't think he has ever said anything about working with nomura again and i have no idea where that guy got that

Could be 2B, could be Reimu, could be...Rayman?

Glitch Theory is whack. Nihilist Theory is where it's at.

the glitch correlates to amingo because everyhing does

amingo is everything

amingo is eternal

praise amingo

 

[Heoj]

Calm your ****, I didn't forget ****.

But again, it doesn't mean anything.


This thought process of "Geno seems more likely because they haven't shown off his Mii outfit, they would have obviously shown it off with Hero cause they're both made by Square!" is soo damn flawed.


We got Akira and Jacky, two SEGA characters, in a pack of SNK costumes, by this logic, they should have been with Joker.

We got Heihachi just randomly, when it'd have made more sense to have him in the pack of Fighting game costumes.

We're still missing the Chocobo hat.


The cold, hard truth is just that they wanted the Dragon Quest Mii costume section to JUST be Dragon Quest themed, this doesn't help Geno's chances more than any other character, and jumping to assumptions that this boosts him to astronomically high standards as some put it as "A lock" is just digging your own grave of disappointment when they decide to throw him in a Mii pack randomly in the future.

Your point with heihachi still holds, but the jacky akira one really doesn't. Joker already had 6 costumes so they couldnt fit those two in there, so they instead just gave them to terry.
And obviously since geno is still missing we cant have the chocobo hat yet since that would be objectively suspicious.
I dont get where your getting the idea that its the "cold hard truth" that they only wanted dragon quest stuff

 

[Shroob]

Your point with heihachi still holds, but the jacky akira one really doesn't. Joker already had 6 costumes so they couldnt fit those two in there, so they instead just gave them to terry.
And obviously since geno is still missing we cant have the chocobo hat yet since that would be objectively suspicious.
I dont get where your getting the idea that its the "cold hard truth" that they only wanted dragon quest stuff

Because everything in the pack was Dragon Quest.

We only got 4 Mii costumes when they very easily could have done more, since the usual batch of Mii outfits per character is 5-6, with Hero having the lowest amount of any DLC wave barring Plant who had 0. It doesn't take higher math skills than basic elementary to put 2 and 2 together to see that they wanted Hero's pack to focus exclusively on Dragon Quest costumes and nothing more.


Joker's focused on SEGA
Hero's was exclusively Dragon Quest
Banjo was whatever since we didn't get any Microsoft costumes, so we got some new, some returning
Terry's was SNK-focused, but also just fighting games in general
Byleth was, like Banjo, a random Grab Bag.

 

[Ben Holt]

Picture of the Day:

pic.twitter.com/WFXllKUabo

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) July 4, 2020

aka accurate representation of my room when I turn off the AC for five minutes.

Hell! Doom Slayer confirmed!

 

[Heoj]

Because everything in the pack was Dragon Quest.

We only got 4 Mii costumes when they very easily could have done more, since the usual batch of Mii outfits per character is 5-6, with Hero having the lowest amount of any DLC wave barring Plant who had 0. It doesn't take higher math skills than basic elementary to put 2 and 2 together to see that they wanted Hero's pack to focus exclusively on Dragon Quest costumes and nothing more.


Joker's focused on SEGA
Hero's was exclusively Dragon Quest
Banjo was whatever since we didn't get any Microsoft costumes, so we got some new, some returning
Terry's was SNK-focused, but also just fighting games in general
Byleth was, like Banjo, a random Grab Bag.

Well i guess i missed elementary school cuz i honestly still dont see how this proves they wanted to only do dragon quest.

 

[Shroob]

Well i guess i missed elementary school cuz i honestly still dont see how this proves they wanted to only do dragon quest.

Did we get anything other than Dragon Quest Mii costumes in the Dragon Quest pack?


Hell, we got less than the standard amount of costumes. In every other pack, we've gotten 5-6 costumes, but only 4 here. I don't think it's that hard to see, especially since, frankly, it happened, it's in the past, it's done.

 

[Heoj]

Did we get anything other than Dragon Quest Mii costumes in the Dragon Quest pack?


Hell, we got less than the standard amount of costumes. In every other pack, we've gotten 5-6 costumes, but only 4 here. I don't think it's that hard to see, especially since, frankly, it happened, it's in the past, it's done.

Well i guess well just have to agree to disagree cuz i see something completely different. The way i see it, i think geno and chocobo were at first going to release with hero, but then season 2 began and they held geno and chocobo off just in time to make geno playable.

 

[Shroob]

Well i guess well just have to agree to disagree cuz i see something completely different. The way i see it, i think geno and chocobo were at first going to release with hero, but then season 2 began and they held geno and chocobo off just in time to make geno playable.

I'm not even sure why you brought up a post from 4 days ago if you were just going to agree to disagree.

 

[RileyXY1]

Did we get anything other than Dragon Quest Mii costumes in the Dragon Quest pack?


Hell, we got less than the standard amount of costumes. In every other pack, we've gotten 5-6 costumes, but only 4 here. I don't think it's that hard to see, especially since, frankly, it happened, it's in the past, it's done.

Nope. All Dragon Quest. Hero is also the only FP character so far to not come with any returning Mii Fighter costumes from Smash 4.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Can we just...not talk about weird bugs/glitches as leading to characters considering, y’know, it’s never actually led to an accurate prediction nor would it lead to any actual answers?

Play some Min Min dudes. We’re already at conspiracy theory times after 4-5 days of a new character.

I mean... you can easily just ignore these posts.

From the way these things are being discussed, I do think most people understand that they're conspiracy theories.

Yet we are in a newcomer speculation thread with no announcements or credible leaks to look at. People are understandably going to pull conversation topics (and theories) outta their ass.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Have announcements or shadow drops been made on weekends before assuming the July 6th Direct is true?

 

[rychu_supadude]

If the DLC had ended with Byleth as originally planned, the Namco/Monster Hunter costumes would have ended up never getting re-added. It's likely that there wasn't much of a grand plan to the costumes beyond putting in what fit, when it fitted.

Holding off on putting Geno's costume in with Hero only makes sense if they were already planning the second Fighter Pass at that time... which is possible, yes, but have we heard anything at all to indicate that it's in any way likely that negotiations were happening that early in 2019? With Square being Square, I still definitely wouldn't put it past them to leave the Chocobo and Geno Miis out of Ultimate altogether.

 

[Garteam]

If the DLC had ended with Byleth as originally planned, the Namco/Monster Hunter costumes would have ended up never getting re-added. It's likely that there wasn't much of a grand plan to the costumes beyond putting in what fit, when it fitted.

Holding off on putting Geno's costume in with Hero only makes sense if they were already planning the second Fighter Pass at that time... which is possible, yes, but have we heard anything at all to indicate that it's in any way likely that negotiations were happening that early in 2019? With Square being Square, I still definitely wouldn't put it past them to leave the Chocobo and Geno Miis out of Ultimate altogether.

We have some reason to believe that FP1's negotiations began around E3 2018, as that's when Microsoft began talking to Nintendo about Banjo. Many people are assuming that FP2 is on a similar timeline and negotiations for it began around E3 2019.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Have announcements or shadow drops been made on weekends before assuming the July 6th Direct is true?

The speculation I've seen is that the announcement will be on the 6th, with the Direct happening the next day.

 

[SpectreJordan]

Have announcements or shadow drops been made on weekends before assuming the July 6th Direct is true?

Im predicting the announcement for the 6th would be a trailer or something. Then we get the Direct on the 16th date she had listed.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

The speculation I've seen is that the announcement will be on the 6th, with the Direct happening the next day.

Ah gotcha.

 

[Calamitas]

I think its best if we dial back our expectations some more. The previous date mentioned by this person ended up being just an overview trailer for Paper Mario The Origami King. Not saying a Direct won't or can't happen, but for now I think it's just best to keep expectations low, and wait and see.

 

[Guynamednelson]

One thing about including Min Min that is genuinely pretty cool is how much it made ARMS overall feel like a base game addition. Choosing Min Min alongside Spring Man's Assist Trophy and adding a Ninjara Mii Costume alongside the ones for Spring Man and Ribbon Girl really fleshed out the series across the board to give a lot of representation that covered pretty much everything ARMS related in one fell swoop.

I don't feel like they purged enough hints that ARMS didn't have a fighter in the base game though. Min Min's spirit battle was completely untouched, the character, stage, and My Music menus put the ARMS content at the very end, and Spring Man's friend icon is still among the ATs from non-playable franchises despite having its background color changed to match Min Min's.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

We have some reason to believe that FP1's negotiations began around E3 2018, as that's when Microsoft began talking to Nintendo about Banjo. Many people are assuming that FP2 is on a similar timeline and negotiations for it began around E3 2019.

With that in mind, who was in good with Nintendo in 2019? I honestly can't remember that far back as the last 6 month have felt like a decade.

 

[Guynamednelson]

We have some reason to believe that FP1's negotiations began around E3 2018, as that's when Microsoft began talking to Nintendo about Banjo. Many people are assuming that FP2 is on a similar timeline and negotiations for it began around E3 2019.

Considering that Hero might've been planned for base game had Sugiyama not been Sugiyama, I'd say Banjo & Kazooie was the last license acquired.

 

[Garteam]

With that in mind, who was in good with Nintendo in 2019? I honestly can't remember that far back as the last 6 month have felt like a decade.

Just skimming Nintendo's E3 2019 announcements again, here's some of the notable third party highlights.

• Capcom: Resident Evil 5 and 6 (with Resident Evil 0, Remake, and 4 also being highlighted)
• CD Projekt Red: The Witcher 3
• Sega: Panzer Dragoon
• Square-Enix: Dragon Quest XIS (a big highlight of their show)
• Suda 51: No More Heroes 3 (noteworthy because the reveal was here)
• Disney: Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3

There were other games announced from other companies (like Ni no Kuni for Namco and Spyro for Activison), but those were the games that got their own segment.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

aka accurate representation of my room when I turn off the AC for five minutes.

Sounds like you could use one of these.

 

[StarBot]

I hope Nintendo pulls a Sony and maybe delay the rumored direct for next month

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I know I said this like a week ago, but I will genuinely be sad if we get an AT promotion as DLC and it isn't Alucard, the one AT we know for a fact was strongly considered getting added. Especially as he'd bring this with him, which I consider one of the biggest omissions of CV's songs

 

[SharkLord]

It was interesting to see phantom hits on shield. I suppose to those not familiar with the mechanic it does come off as something rather unusual since it's a pretty rare occurrence in a fast-paced match - especially if you're shielding.

That said, if Reimu were to make it into Smash Bros, I could easily see phantom hits or parries being the way to translate Touhou's signature grazing mechanic - where you just barely scrape an incoming attack. Granted, it'd probably take a lot of effort just to get a phantom hit, so I don't think that'll be how Reimu might use it, if she were to appear in Smash. ...I'mstillhopefulfortheredwhitemiko

Sakurai will probably take us aside to explain the mechanic first, then go on to demonstrate how Reimu's glancing blow hitbox is larger than normal. At the very least, it should take a bit of the work off their backs, since they can use the glancing hit code and build up from there.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I know I said this like a week ago, but I will genuinely be sad if we get an AT promotion as DLC and it isn't Alucard, the one AT we know for a fact was strongly considered getting added.

Its interesting that all three of Konami's assist trophies (Alucard, Bomberman, Gray Fox) all feel like ones that people would be pretty thrilled about getting a promotion, though admittedly not as much with the latter.

 

[Schnee117]

Its interesting that all three of Konami's assist trophies (Alucard, Bomberman, Gray Fox) all feel like ones that people would be pretty thrilled about getting a promotion, though admittedly not as much with the latter.

Not so much Gray Fox nowadays. For Metal Gear's Cyborg Ninjas (and Metal Gear as a whole), Raiden is the one people want.

 

[PK-remling Fire]

I know I said this like a week ago, but I will genuinely be sad if we get an AT promotion as DLC and it isn't Alucard, the one AT we know for a fact was strongly considered getting added. Especially as he'd bring this with him, which I consider one of the biggest omissions of CV's songs

Especially considering he appears in Richter's Palutena's guidance. Between that and his fairly extensive moveset he's been given a lot of love relative to other assist trophies.

 

[DuskFleur]

I know I said this like a week ago, but I will genuinely be sad if we get an AT promotion as DLC and it isn't Alucard, the one AT we know for a fact was strongly considered getting added. Especially as he'd bring this with him, which I consider one of the biggest omissions of CV's songs

I’d love for Alucard to be promoted to playable if it means more awesome Castlevania music.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I’d love for Alucard to be promoted to playable if it means more awesome Castlevania music.

I wonder how they'd handle his stage. They certainly aren't going to copy PM's own Dracula's Castle.

 

[SharkLord]

I know I said this like a week ago, but I will genuinely be sad if we get an AT promotion as DLC and it isn't Alucard, the one AT we know for a fact was strongly considered getting added. Especially as he'd bring this with him, which I consider one of the biggest omissions of CV's songs

I would love to see Alucard in Smash, but I have my doubts. We already got a ton of Castlevania content, so unless it's a Piranha Plant situation there isn't much left to add.

 

[PK-remling Fire]

I wonder how they'd handle his stage. They certainly aren't going to copy PM's own Dracula's Castle.

They could do the interior of Dracula's castle, then make it flip every once in a while.

 

[DarthEnderX]

If the DLC had ended with Byleth as originally planned, the Namco/Monster Hunter costumes would have ended up never getting re-added.

Or they would have been released as non-character content updates, like new Spirits are.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

Your point with heihachi still holds, but the jacky akira one really doesn't. Joker already had 6 costumes so they couldnt fit those two in there, so they instead just gave them to terry.
And obviously since geno is still missing we cant have the chocobo hat yet since that would be objectively suspicious.
I dont get where your getting the idea that its the "cold hard truth" that they only wanted dragon quest stuff

It was "objectively suspicious" when Heihachi didn't show up in Terry's trailer and it still ended with him just as a costume later on. It's also not actually a hard rule that Jacky and Akira couldn't come with Joker because 6 isn't even a standardized number for the costumes yet, it's just the upper limit we've seen so far. If they wanted 8 Costumes to come with Joker, they would have just done that, but it also made sense to drop Akira and Jacky with Terry as the fighting game character of Fighter's Pass Volume 1.

Like you can say it would be more suspicious that Chocobo would appear and Geno didn't, but this gets into the whole, Does Sakurai actively do things to throw us off the the "trail" to surprise us? ideology that has more often than not been proven to not be in any way, shape, or form reality. If anything, most of the situation's people bring up usually end up being a lot more directly answered if anything and point to it being more important to take things at face value such as how the absence of Three Houses Spirits actually just led to Byleth's inclusion and the fact that he didn't try to throw us off the trail prior. Sakurai really doesn't act like that, and Chocobo's absence is much more likely to be explained by the pack deciding to focus on Dragon Quest rather than holding him back as an addition for Geno down the line or to keep us "off the trail" considering literally everything about Challenger Pack 2 focused directly on Dragon Quest.

Is Geno still possible? Absolutely. But I think it's undeniable that Heihachi's fanfare-less return severely puts into question whether or not additional returning Mii Costumes not in yet mean much of anything. They may all be independently possible options, but Heihachi put a big hole in any ideas that "all packs were intended for 6 costumes and the costumes they dropped were an indication of what's coming later on" and also the idea that Nintendo and Sakurai won't unceremoniously just drop costumes of beloved characters later on. If they dropped things like they did in the November 2018 Direct, they are absolutely capable of dropping Geno and Lloyd costumes with Challenger Pack 11 and be under no need to explain themselves to fans too.