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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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osby

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Anytime that someone has made an assumption for Smash, they have been proven wrong. Sakurai clearly doesn't have any rules and looks at things differently. I agree that Rex looks good right now (unfortunately as I am not a fan of Xenoblade. I have the original for Wii and didn't enjoy it that much). However, Sakurai has acknowledge the demand for Geno in the past so I don't think that your comments are that accurate regarding the character.
Demand is important but how many of the DLC fighters were added because of the overwhelming fan request?

People keep pointing out Ridley and K.Rool but there's significantly less focus on satisfying old Smash fans after the release of the base game. I'm not writing off Geno but it's kinda obvious that Nintendo has different priorities than Sakurai and so many characters can get in purely because of fans. It's likely that we'll get another pick like Banjo in this pass but I don't think it's unfair to point out that Geno has a lot going against him.
 

Evil Trapezium

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Geno...I think we need to pump the breaks. Not only does he have history as a Mii Costume (which we've yet to see a DLC upgrade from), but he could absolutely be a Premium costume, or just come back as normal. We have to remember, while Geno is a major pillar of fan demand right now he's still:
- a party member from a generations old Mario game
- owned by a different company
- Nintendo is choosing the characters, not Sakurai (or at least he isn't as much the "sole" person choosing)

Now, these things don't mean he's toast. It's just that Square Enix hasn't used him, and Nintendo would likely only choose him on the basis of fan demand. Again, it doesn't mean he WON'T be added, but he's far from a lock.
I don't understand how being "a party member from a generations old Mario game" is a knock against Geno. I'd think healthy fan demand would nullify this problem because it would give him popularity and a distinction from other characters similar to his role.
 

SharkLord

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I don't understand how being "a party member from a generations old Mario game" is a knock against Geno. I'd think healthy fan demand would nullify this problem because it would give him popularity and a distinction from other characters similar to his role.
Because he's only really popular in the hardcore Mario/Smash fanbase. Ridley and K.Rool were the biggest villains in popular but then-underrepresented franchises, and Banjo was the protagonist of a classic N64 series that was basically another Nintendo game until Microsoft happened. Geno appeared once, had a couple cameos scattered here and there, and that's it, not to mention the overdosage of Mario content in Smash already, and the fact that fellow Mario character Waluigi is popular in both hardcore AND casual fanbases. Popularity=\=Likelihood.
 

Blankiturayman

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Since you guys are talking about Geno, I might as well chime in: I'm not sure how good his chances are, now definitely it isn't a problem for a Spirit to get promoted-- but I'd be lying if I said that Heihachi returning out of the blue in the last pack didn't worry me, especially since he was missing with Terry.

They might bring back the rest of the missing costumes from 4 later on including him; even if they were missing with Hero. It could be with another SE character, or with some random character. I've come to notice there usually isn't a pattern to these things ,though sometimes, there are like with Terry having an all-fighter Mii pack or Joker having mostly SEGA Mii costumes.

That being said, I think he's in a better spot now than he was for previous games. If they were to add him it'd most likely be out of fan demand which is notably there (Sakurai even cited this when adding the Mii Costume back in 4!); so yeah. I'm hoping for him but just waiting to see how things turn out. He's not a lock by any means, nor is any character at the moment. I suppose we'll see.
 

Scoliosis Jones

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I would also like to point out that, "That's a fan rule" and "Nobody that has predicted something has been right" are both non-arguments.

If nobody has ever been correct about a prediction (incorrect) then why are we here? Just to suffer?

Anyway, I just believe that any DLC character is inherently different from a base game addition, and they have to have SOMETHING that sets them apart aside from just "fan demand". Even Banjo had that with Phil Spencer/Microsoft being open and willing to collaborating with Nintendo.

EDIT:
:ultjoker:- definitely not fan demand, you would have been laughed at if you thought he was seriously a candidate
:ulthero:- I would say fan demand played a part, mainly in Japan, but there's also the business aspect of DQXIS: Echoes of an Elusive Age: Definitive Edition for the Nintendo Switch
:ultbanjokazooie:- popularity, I would say probably Nintendo connection, and Microsoft being open and willing to play ball
:ult_terry:- What's Fatal Fury?
:ultbyleth:- Heh, they wouldn't add Fire Emblem! The fans don't want another one
:ultminmin- If there's going to be upgrades, it'd probably be Waluigi, Bandanna Waddle Dee, or Isaac. (What I mean is, almost nobody talked about ARMS with upgrades)

The point is, each pick operated on something outside of pure popularity or fan demand. This is why I think falling into the trap of "likelihood = popularity" is where a lot of predictions have the potential to go wrong.
 
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7NATOR

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question. Do any of you guys know of any Discords with Data-miners. I need to ask them some things for Speculation reasons
 

DaybreakHorizon

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:ultjoker:- definitely not fan demand, you would have been laughed at if you thought he was seriously a candidate
Can confirm. Was one of the like, 5 serious Joker supporters, and was the only serious Joker supporter to frequent the General Speculation Thread. Was laughed at.

A lot.

But it's okay because I got the last laugh >:^)
 
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ZelDan

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Can confirm. Was one of the like, 5 serious Joker supporters, and was the only serious Joker supporter to frequent the General Speculation Thread. Was laughed at.

A lot.

But it's okay because I got the last laugh >:^)
I guess you could say the Joke became the Joker. :shades:
 
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Evil Trapezium

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Because he's only really popular in the hardcore Mario/Smash fanbase. Ridley and K.Rool were the biggest villains in popular but then-underrepresented franchises, and Banjo was the protagonist of a classic N64 series that was basically another Nintendo game until Microsoft happened. Geno appeared once, had a couple cameos scattered here and there, and that's it, not to mention the overdosage of Mario content in Smash already, and the fact that fellow Mario character Waluigi is popular in both hardcore AND casual fanbases. Popularity=\=Likelihood.
Ridley and King K. Rool were from series that hadn't gotten games in years so they were only popular with the hardcore smash fanbases. Banjo & Kazooie were from a series that hadn't gotten a game in more than a decade so they were only popular with the hardcore smash fanbases. It's a non-argument.

Geno isn't different in that regard from those three characters. People only decided that they were more popular than they thought once they got in.
 

Dalek_Kolt

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I need more fanart of Min Min feeding Smash and video game characters.
1593546214032.png
 
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volbound1700

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The Geno Costume in Smash 4 as well as Sakurai's comments about Geno nearly making the Brawl cut both back the statement that I made that Sakurai understands the fan request. It is interesting that we haven't at least received a mii costume yet.

As stated, I am not sure that any of us know the next 5 picks.
 

Cutie Gwen

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question. Do any of you guys know of any Discords with Data-miners. I need to ask them some things for Speculation reasons
No we do not have data for future fighters in there.


I think Geno's biggest hurdle is being the kid in the divorce that none of the parents want as every other Mario x Square crossover didn't even acknowledge him. Not even Fortune Street, the one that brought in a SMRPG remix acknowledged him at all
 

EricTheGamerman

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I don't understand how being "a party member from a generations old Mario game" is a knock against Geno. I'd think healthy fan demand would nullify this problem because it would give him popularity and a distinction from other characters similar to his role.
I mean, it's more of the fact because he's such a character, he literally has no purpose beyond being a fan favorite. He's not like the lead of a series that could spark interest in a sequel, he's forever tethered to not only Mario, but a specific type of Mario RPG co-developed by Square Enix that really doesn't have a whole lot of reason to be revisited compared to the other Mario RPG series that Nintendo owns outright and have been successful (As RPGs they may not be doing so well these days, but Nintendo can absolutely just flip that switch again if they want to). Being the lead of a series or its main representative makes an extra case for inclusion because you represent the series and generally bring along the most important elements of it to Smash. The problem with that and Geno? Mario, Peach, and Bowser inadvertently already represent Super Mario RPG (and maybe even a little bit of Piranha Plant if you wanna go further) by being in the game. Sure, they aren't based off of Super Mario RPG, but they are 3/5 of the original party members from the game and Mario RPGs have significantly diverged from Super Mario RPG to begin with.

It absolutely puts Geno in a uniquely difficult position and basically puts all the weight on a divisive at best fandom. He's purely reliant on fan demand.
 

SharkLord

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Ridley and King K. Rool were from series that hadn't gotten games in years so they were only popular with the hardcore smash fanbases. Banjo & Kazooie were from a series that hadn't gotten a game in more than a decade so they were only popular with the hardcore smash fanbases. It's a non-argument.

Geno isn't different in that regard from those three characters. People only decided that they were more popular than they thought once they got in.
A supporting character from an obscure spinoff vs. the respective antagonists of the defining Metroidvania title and Donkey Kong, who everyone knows, plus an N64 classic who was even owned by Nintendo once and likely would've been included in Brawl or 4 if Microsoft hadn't acquired them.

It's not about modern relevancy, it's about impact. Sometimes the impact is through modern hits, like Joker. Sometimes the impact comes from being an influential classic, like with Hero. Just because someone has been MIA for a while doesn't mean they aren't impactful. On the other side, just because a character only appeared around the mid/late-2010's doesn't mean they aren't impactful either. Just because a character is a major request doesn't mean they lack impact (i.e. Ridley), and similarly, just because a character made a major impact doesn't mean they are a popular request (i.e. Joker). The Smash fanbase is often biased towards whoever has had overlap with Nintendo fans, regardless of actual relevancy, a term that is often missused.
I think you mean who's his ramen. RIP Min Min, though it could have been worse, if it had been Kirby instead of Ridley I can only assume Sarlacc Pit-style torture awaits.
Super Smash Bros. stopped being for good boys and girls as soon as Ridley was added.
 

Eldrake

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...That Ridley one is incredibly disturbing. For more than one reason.

Like, what is up with his body, dude, what the ****.
Yeah, I know what you mean. Like how is he holding the right chopstick in place? I don't see any finger on it.
 
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GoodGrief741

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A supporting character from an obscure spinoff vs. the respective antagonists of the defining Metroidvania title and Donkey Kong, who everyone knows, plus an N64 classic who was even owned by Nintendo once and likely would've been included in Brawl or 4 if Microsoft hadn't acquired them.

It's not about modern relevancy, it's about impact. Sometimes the impact is through modern hits, like Joker. Sometimes the impact comes from being an influential classic, like with Hero. Just because someone has been MIA for a while doesn't mean they aren't impactful. On the other side, just because a character only appeared around the mid/late-2010's doesn't mean they aren't impactful either. Just because a character is a major request doesn't mean they lack impact (i.e. Ridley), and similarly, just because a character made a major impact doesn't mean they are a popular request (i.e. Joker). The Smash fanbase is often biased towards whoever has had overlap with Nintendo fans, regardless of actual relevancy, a term that is often missused.

Super Smash Bros. stopped being for good boys and girls as soon as Ridley was added.
I would make the argument that SMRPG had a big impact, for many people in that console generation it was their introduction to RPGs, and it led to both the Paper Mario and Mario & Luigi series.
 

Cosmic77

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I think the important thing to remember is that we need to keep a more open mind and not act like everything is absolute.

I know there are a few users here who are sensitive to the word "fan rule", but I can go back to just about any point in 2019 and pull up an old post where someone claimed a character was deconfirmed. Why you ask? Because in order for certain patterns to make sense, some characters couldn't be eligible. Spirits weren't eligible, ATs weren't eligible, existing franchises weren't eligible, first-parties weren't eligible in the first pass — stuff like this caused a lot of characters to be shunned and left out of virtually all discussion. I'm pretty sure most people wouldn't have even given ARMS the time of day if Nintendo hadn't revealed it early in March.

It's fine to make observations and base your predictions off of them, but it starts becoming an issue when you get protective of these patterns and rules to the point where you immediately disregard any character who doesn't fit.
 

Scoliosis Jones

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I think the important thing to remember is that we need to keep a more open mind and not act like everything is absolute.

I know there are a few users here who are sensitive to the word "fan rule", but I can go back to just about any point in 2019 and pull up an old post where someone claimed a character was deconfirmed. Why you ask? Because in order for certain patterns to make sense, some characters couldn't be eligible. Spirits weren't eligible, ATs weren't eligible, existing franchises weren't eligible, first-parties weren't eligible in the first pass — stuff like this caused a lot of characters to be shunned and left out of virtually all discussion. I'm pretty sure most people wouldn't have even given ARMS the time of day if Nintendo hadn't revealed it early in March.

It's fine to make observations and base your predictions off of them, but it starts becoming an issue when you get protective of these patterns and rules to the point where you immediately disregard any character who doesn't fit.
To be fair, the people who make those into "Rules" are not the same people who post them.

It's the person reading who, for whatever reason, thinks it's becoming a law of the land. I think that in itself tells us a bit about the discourse surrounding "rules".

You want to talk people being sensitive? The amount of people who shout down ideas with "fan rule" shows sensitivity more than anything, in my humble opinion.

As I always say, if you don't agree with someones ideas, present ideas to make a case for a different outcome.

In general though, I do agree that things shouldn't be taken as a "set in stone" thing unless it's backed with utterly ridiculous evidence from the series since the beginning. The only thing that really fits that currently is mascot/protagonist first for new series, but I think a lot of other concepts are wide open for now.
 
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SharkLord

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I would make the argument that SMRPG had a big impact, for many people in that console generation it was their introduction to RPGs, and it led to both the Paper Mario and Mario & Luigi series.
But why Geno specifically? What about other SNES RPGs like Chrono Trigger or Final Fantasy VI? Why can't we have Paper Mario, who's more well-known and represents Mario RPGs as well? Sure, SMRPG may have had an impact, but is it the only game that fill that niche? It should also be noted that seniority doesn't always mean they go first, like how we got Cloud before anyone from Dragon Quest, and Persona 5 before any earlier Persona/SMT game.

And on that note, why Geno specifically? He's not the main character, Mario is, and Geno's not a recurring character like, say, BWD or Dixie. Even if Nintendo acknowledges SMRPG again, it doesn't necessarily mean Geno specifically. He's not just a character from an obscure game, but a supporting character as well. Popularity alone won't win you a spot.
 

Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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But why Geno specifically? What about other SNES RPGs like Chrono Trigger or Final Fantasy VI? Why can't we have Paper Mario, who's more well-known and represents Mario RPGs as well? Sure, SMRPG may have had an impact, but is it the only game that fill that niche? It should also be noted that seniority doesn't always mean they go first, like how we got Cloud before anyone from Dragon Quest, and Persona 5 before any earlier Persona/SMT game.

And on that note, why Geno specifically? He's not the main character, Mario is, and Geno's not a recurring character like, say, BWD or Dixie. Even if Nintendo acknowledges SMRPG again, it doesn't necessarily mean Geno specifically. He's not just a character from an obscure game, but a supporting character as well. Popularity alone won't win you a spot.
...Those did not impact the Mario RPG's continuing whatsoever. Those impacted gaming in their own way, but it's a different kind of impact.

Geno is just plain more popular than Mallow, the only other candidate from Super Mario RPG. SMRPG is what led specifically to Paper Mario and Mario & Luigi existing, two extremely popular spin-offs. It has a pretty strong Nintendo impact in itself. It's similar to how Banjo-Kazooie mainly impacted Nintendo games, but not so much gaming as a whole. These characters are fan demanded heavily for a Nintendo-focused crossover.

It's not that strange.
 

volbound1700

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But why Geno specifically? What about other SNES RPGs like Chrono Trigger or Final Fantasy VI? Why can't we have Paper Mario, who's more well-known and represents Mario RPGs as well? Sure, SMRPG may have had an impact, but is it the only game that fill that niche? It should also be noted that seniority doesn't always mean they go first, like how we got Cloud before anyone from Dragon Quest, and Persona 5 before any earlier Persona/SMT game.

And on that note, why Geno specifically? He's not the main character, Mario is, and Geno's not a recurring character like, say, BWD or Dixie. Even if Nintendo acknowledges SMRPG again, it doesn't necessarily mean Geno specifically. He's not just a character from an obscure game, but a supporting character as well. Popularity alone won't win you a spot.
Has no one read my posts, the Geno hype stems from a comment by Sakurai that he almost made the cut in Brawl as well as the Mii Costume from Smash 4.
 

Scoliosis Jones

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One other thing with Geno, I think, is this question: If it were so simple as for Sakurai to just add Geno, why isn't he in Smash as playable yet?

Logically, the answer is that if Sakurai wanted to make him playable (which he has said he was interested in doing in the past), he would be playable. But he isn't. This suggests there's something else in the way preventing it.

Whatever it is, I'm not sure. But I think it's hasty to say "he's in" when he could absolutely end up as a Mii Costume again.
 

Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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Has no one read my posts, the Geno hype stems from a comment by Sakurai that he almost made the cut in Brawl as well as the Mii Costume from Smash 4.
Geno has been highly popular way before that, man.

That just made the hype grow higher and added more people to the fan demand. They got louder, but trust me, the's been a popular request even before that. Brawl is when it generally started, due to the idea of 3rd parties.
 

Perkilator

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One other thing with Geno, I think, is this question: If it were so simple as for Sakurai to just add Geno, why isn't he in Smash as playable yet?

Logically, the answer is that if Sakurai wanted to make him playable (which he has said he was interested in doing in the past), he would be playable. But he isn't. This suggests there's something else in the way preventing it.
Square Enix copyright. It's kind of a *****, hence why Cloud came back with exactly the same two songs and no other Spirits.
 

Dalek_Kolt

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Super Smash Bros. stopped being for good boys and girls as soon as Ridley was added.
I'm reminded of a time back during Smash 4 that someone argued that Ridley shouldn't ever be made playable on the basis that he was too evil for Smash.
I could kinda see where they were coming from, but it was still soberingly hilarious that on a roster with a literal King of Evil, Ridley was considered to be too hardcore to rub elbows with even Ganondorf.
 

GoodGrief741

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But why Geno specifically?
Why not?
What about other SNES RPGs like Chrono Trigger or Final Fantasy VI? Why can't we have Paper Mario, who's more well-known and represents Mario RPGs as well?
I think, down the line, we could and should have reps from all of those, and it'd hardly feel redundant.
Sure, SMRPG may have had an impact, but is it the only game that fill that niche?
No, but it fills it just as well as any other. I was just presenting a rebuttal to the notion that SMRPG is an obscure game with no impact, which is simply not true.
It should also be noted that seniority doesn't always mean they go first, like how we got Cloud before anyone from Dragon Quest, and Persona 5 before any earlier Persona/SMT game.
And there's probably going to be other examples of characters taking priority; but being out-prioritized doesn't mean you won't ever get in. In your own example, seniority didn't make Dragon Quest trump Cloud, but it certainly played a role in making it come second.
And on that note, why Geno specifically? He's not the main character, Mario is, and Geno's not a recurring character like, say, BWD or Dixie. Even if Nintendo acknowledges SMRPG again, it doesn't necessarily mean Geno specifically. He's not just a character from an obscure game, but a supporting character as well. Popularity alone won't win you a spot.
I think everyone can agree that Geno's the de facto face of SMRPG.
 

SharkLord

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...Those did not impact the Mario RPG's continuing whatsoever. Those impacted gaming in their own way, but it's a different kind of impact.

Geno is just plain more popular than Mallow, the only other candidate from Super Mario RPG. SMRPG is what led specifically to Paper Mario and Mario & Luigi existing, two extremely popular spin-offs. It has a pretty strong Nintendo impact in itself. It's similar to how Banjo-Kazooie mainly impacted Nintendo games, but not so much gaming as a whole. These characters are fan demanded heavily for a Nintendo-focused crossover.

It's not that strange.
But the thing is, it's not just Geno and Mallow; There's Mario, Bowser, and Peach as well, and they're already in. Even if they're not considered reps for that game specifically, it still leaves Geno and Mallow as side characters; Side characters without a major appearance since their debut. And again, seniority=/=going first. You said it yourself, Paper Mario and Mario & Luigi are extremely popular. Why can't we get a rep from there? Why does it have to be Geno as our Mario RPG fighter? What elevates him above the rest beyond popularity?

I'm reminded of a time back during Smash 4 that someone argued that Ridley shouldn't ever be made playable on the basis that he was too evil for Smash.
I could kinda see where they were coming from, but it was still soberingly hilarious that on a roster with a literal King of Evil, Ridley was considered to be too hardcore to rub elbows with even Ganondorf.
To be fair, Ganondorf didn't butcher Link's parents, eat them, and rub it in his face.
 

Evil Trapezium

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I need more fanart of Min Min feeding Smash and video game characters.
This is a cursed image.

nope.png


A supporting character from an obscure spinoff vs. the respective antagonists of the defining Metroidvania title and Donkey Kong, who everyone knows, plus an N64 classic who was even owned by Nintendo once and likely would've been included in Brawl or 4 if Microsoft hadn't acquired them.

It's not about modern relevancy, it's about impact. Sometimes the impact is through modern hits, like Joker. Sometimes the impact comes from being an influential classic, like with Hero. Just because someone has been MIA for a while doesn't mean they aren't impactful. On the other side, just because a character only appeared around the mid/late-2010's doesn't mean they aren't impactful either. Just because a character is a major request doesn't mean they lack impact (i.e. Ridley), and similarly, just because a character made a major impact doesn't mean they are a popular request (i.e. Joker). The Smash fanbase is often biased towards whoever has had overlap with Nintendo fans, regardless of actual relevancy, a term that is often missused.
But the reason for them being in the game is not because of who they are but their fan demand. Ridley, King K. Rool and Banjo & Kazooie all got into the game through the ballot (Sakurai said so in his Famitsu columns). Heck even the Geno and King K. Rool mii costumes were probably due to the ballot results. It had nothing to do with their impact in gaming. Geno being a supporting character from an obscure spin-off does not effect how likely he is to be in Super Smash Bros.

I mean, it's more of the fact because he's such a character, he literally has no purpose beyond being a fan favorite. He's not like the lead of a series that could spark interest in a sequel, he's forever tethered to not only Mario, but a specific type of Mario RPG co-developed by Square Enix that really doesn't have a whole lot of reason to be revisited compared to the other Mario RPG series that Nintendo owns outright and have been successful (As RPGs they may not be doing so well these days, but Nintendo can absolutely just flip that switch again if they want to). Being the lead of a series or its main representative makes an extra case for inclusion because you represent the series and generally bring along the most important elements of it to Smash. The problem with that and Geno? Mario, Peach, and Bowser inadvertently already represent Super Mario RPG (and maybe even a little bit of Piranha Plant if you wanna go further) by being in the game. Sure, they aren't based off of Super Mario RPG, but they are 3/5 of the original party members from the game and Mario RPGs have significantly diverged from Super Mario RPG to begin with.

It absolutely puts Geno in a uniquely difficult position and basically puts all the weight on a divisive at best fandom. He's purely reliant on fan demand.
But didn't the other three get in just through pure fan demand? I mean Sakurai had more reason to add Ridley and King K. Rool since he seemingly had control over who he could add. Nintendo and Microsoft had no reason to add Banjo & Kazooie into Smash Bros other than pure fan demand. Phil Spencer is literally the evidence of this being the case since he had been communicating with fans about asking Nintendo to include them since the ballot came out.

One other thing with Geno, I think, is this question: If it were so simple as for Sakurai to just add Geno, why isn't he in Smash as playable yet?
My guess is that since Cloud was the last character they added into Ultimate's base game, they were more focused on getting him back since negotiating for him was difficult.
 
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TwiceEXE

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My view is that if your argument is based on sound logic and deduction, it should not be dismissed as a "fan rule" or "gatekeeping". The reason people bring up these "fan rules" is because they are based on observed patterns and prior behavior. They are not an ironclad way to predict the future, but they do provide a framework with which to curate ideas. I have repeatedly said that my speculation is based on the probable, not the possible. That does not mean I dismiss all the possible outcomes, I simply attempt to focus on the more likely scenarios. For example, it is POSSIBLE that Dino Riki from Adventures of Dino Riki on the NES is added as a playable character. But I would rate the chances of that as minuscule. I won't tell you that you are wrong for wanting him or that it is impossible, but I may voice why I think it probably won't happen.

It is important to be respectful in our discussions; no one likes to be greeted with rudeness when voicing their opinions. But that does not mean that everyone has to hold their tongue and not voice a dissenting opinion. Just attempt to be tactful and to argue from a position with evidence/support for your ideas.

The other important thing is to be flexible when new information arises. Strong takes, held weakly. I was of the mindset that Spirits were unlikely to be made into fighters. That held true for the entire first pass, but now that is off the table. So I have let that opinion go and formed a new one that Spirits added in the post-launch Spirit events or that characters from those franchises are unlikely to be added.
 
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