Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Dinoman96]

I mean really, characters like Robin, Palutena, Shulk, etc are good for filling the base roster, but if they weren't there inititally I couldn't imagine them being characters you'd have to pay $5.99 for, so I see why DLC mostly consists of third parties.

 

[Wyoming]

Third parties make sense to sell as DLC. They generate post-release interest and companies I imagine get a bigger slice of the pie with a DLC pack than base roster inclusion although I could be wrong here.

As for Smash representing Nintendo first: that died 13 years ago. Can we move on from that mentality? And even if you still want to believe that, then the bulk of the roster, stages, items, and misc are Nintendo.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I mean really, characters like Robin, Palutena, Shulk, etc are good for filling the base roster, but if they weren't there inititally I couldn't imagine them being characters you'd have to pay $5.99 for, so I see why DLC mostly consists of third parties.

Corrin was still a decent seller, despite being considered the low end of Smash 4 DLC.

Speaking of which, if later character reveals are less hype, and Nintendo characters are supposedly less hype too, why aren't more people thinking if A=C and B=C, A also =B?

 

[Deathcarter]

I mean really, characters like Robin, Palutena, Shulk, etc are good for filling the base roster, but if they weren't there inititally I couldn't imagine them being characters you'd have to pay $5.99 for, so I see why DLC mostly consists of third parties.

Do you think K. Rool, Isabelle, Wolf or a Gen 3 Pokémon wouldn't have sold well as Smash 4 DLC? Do you think Octoling, Waluigi, Toad/Toadette, or even Springman wouldn't sell well as DLC for this game?

 

[ChaosAngelZone]

Hey all! I believe this is my first post in this thread. I was mostly hanging out in the Banjo thread during the pre-E3 anticipation.

Anyway, didn't Reggie say something along the lines of "the Fighters Pass will be characters you wouldn't normally expect to see in Smash Bros." after Joker was revealed? I've always assumed that the Fighters Pass will be all third party based on that statement alone.

 

[Dinoman96]

Corrin was still a decent seller, despite being considered the low end of Smash 4 DLC.

Speaking of which, if later character reveals are less hype, and Nintendo characters are supposedly less hype too, why aren't more people thinking if A=C and B=C, A also =B?

Well, Corrin's a different case because he was intentionally a promotional character for an upcoming game. If Robin didn't make Smash 4's base roster, then why would he made DLC years after Awakening came out in both the west and east? That was kind of my point.

The only Nintendo characters that have a shot at this point IMO are like Corrin, promotionals for future games. Like Byleth from FE Three Houses or a Sword/Shield Pokemon. And in that case...I'd rather just have more third parties.

 

[Guynamednelson]

promotionals for future games

Something something Rex costume

 

[Koopaul]

Third parties make sense to sell as DLC. They generate post-release interest and companies I imagine get a bigger slice of the pie with a DLC pack than base roster inclusion although I could be wrong here.

As for Smash representing Nintendo first: that died 13 years ago. Can we move on from that mentality? And even if you still want to believe that, then the bulk of the roster, stages, items, and misc are Nintendo.

Well, they still do. The majority of the new content in every Smash game is always from Nintendo. So that is Nintendo first. But that doesn't mean 3rd Parties aren't the right choice for DLC. Nintendo stuff is just better for the base roster.

 

[N3ON]

The problem is not the present number, the problem is that including third party characters opened the pandorax box, because we all know how people are. You give them 1, they want 2 and that's basically a neverending cycle. That's exactly why including Goku would be the biggest mistake possible, not because he's not from a video game but because after his inclusion, too many morons would be like "now I want Monkey D. Luffy because you know, according to facts, One Piece is the most popular manga in existence.". Or they should stop listening to the fans.

This gateway drug argument is a very different point than you first raised. Initially your concern was Smash shying away from Nintendo and towards general gaming, now apparently general gaming is not the problem, and it's non-gaming characters, like Goku.

Here's the thing: Sakurai is aware of the requests for Goku, and has still drawn a line in the sand that those kind of characters of non-gaming origin won't be included. No one can say what the future will bring, but as it stands now, there's no reason to believe he'll change his mind any time soon.

As to your original point, if "pandora's box" opened two games ago, and the current number of third-parties still isn't a problem, this doesn't seem like an issue we'll be confronted with any time soon. First-party additions still outnumber third-party additions, and at this rate it would take a lot of catch up for third-parties to get within even spitting distance of the first-party total.

 

[Dinoman96]

Do you think K. Rool, Isabelle, Wolf or a Gen 3 Pokémon wouldn't have sold well as Smash 4 DLC? Do you think Octoling, Waluigi, Toad/Toadette, or even Springman wouldn't sell well as DLC for this game?

To be honest, I think with guys like Wolf and K. Rool, it wasn't that they figured they wouldn't sell, as much it was that they knew that they were going be working on Ultimate when creating Smash 4's DLC (they literally finalized Ultimate's project plan on the same day they broadcasted the last Smash Direct), so they were intentionally held back to have some heavy hitters for the next game.

And yes, I do think third parties will make more buzz than those other characters you mentioned.

 

[Ura]

Licensing only matters for third party characters. Even if no third party characters return (which is unlikely) that's 13 to 15 characters being cut. And that's 13 to 15 newcomers that can replace them.

True but it's not like they're going to be a whole batch of new ones that will be replaceable. Hell, the ones we have in game already are the most iconic. 90% of third parties out there are close to B-Tier level now.

In theory there's nothing stopping a first party character so long as they can bring their own set of spirits.

*dabs in AW*

Y'know, given how it's virtually untouched with all the CO's that can be used as Spirits. Dunno what Eagle & Olaf are doing in over Max & Sami anyways.

We'll get more Nintendo newcomers next game. After Smash 4 and now, it's obvious that Nintendo/Sakurai prioritize third party characters for DLC.

Prioritize absolutely but that doesn't necessarily mean that all will be 3rd party. I mean sure it could very well end up that way but it doesn't have to.

 

[Guynamednelson]

wtf arc system JERKS

you can't make 17 playable he's already in 18's moveset

you have to bring in jotaro to generate buzz

 

[StormC]

Prioritize absolutely but that doesn't necessarily mean that all will be 3rd party. I mean sure it could very well end up that way but it doesn't have to.

I think statistically speaking the chance that the next two characters buck the trend set by the previous three is slim to none. Feel free to blow up my notifications otherwise if I'm wrong.

 

[Ura]

I think statistically speaking the chance that the next two characters buck the trend set by the previous three is slim to none. Feel free to blow up my notifications otherwise if I'm wrong.

Doesn't have to be both. Hell, I fully expect Fighter 5 to be a big third-party to close out the Pass.

And if we're going by statistics, one could say the same thing about Smash 4's DLC prior to Corrin. Granted that character was added for different circumstances but say if Bayo get leaked beforehand, you would see everyone expressing this exact sentiment.

I'll take a wait and see approach. Never say never as I like to say.

 

[DarthEnderX]

wtf arc system JERKS

you can't make 17 playable he's already in 18's moveset

I suspect you're being sarcastic, but I actually agree.

They should either change 18's moveset so that 17 doesn't assist her anymore, or they should make it so 18 assists 17 in his moveset as well.

Personally prefer the former. If I want 17 and 18 to both be in my fights, I can just pick them both.

 

[Deleted member]

Do you think K. Rool, Isabelle, Wolf or a Gen 3 Pokémon wouldn't have sold well as Smash 4 DLC? Do you think Octoling, Waluigi, Toad/Toadette, or even Springman wouldn't sell well as DLC for this game?

Frankly compared to heavy hitters like Ryu or Cloud, not. Bayo was coming hot from her being being released as well.

The thing is that a lot of these characters bring something that Nintendo pretty much lacks on the game. Nintendo pretty much lacks on characters like Snake, Bayo, Simon, Ryu, Joker, Hero and so on. So its not really hard to see that these are added to expand the Smash Bros audience.

 

[Deathcarter]

To be honest, I think with guys like Wolf and K. Rool, it wasn't that they figured they wouldn't sell, as much it was that they knew that they were going be working on Ultimate when creating Smash 4's DLC (they literally finalized Ultimate's project plan on the same day they broadcasted the last Smash Direct), so they were intentionally held back to have some heavy hitters for the next game.

And yes, I do think third parties will make more buzz than those other characters you mentioned.

Its not like we're getting internationally well known A-list 3rd party characters on the level of Cloud and Ryu this cycle. Even Dragon Quest arguably doesn't have a character as recognizable worldwide as Toad or Waluigi to say nothing of a good chunk of 3rd party characters people here bring up like KOS-MOS, Lloyd Irving, Pheonix Wright, the Chosen Undead or even Monster Hunter. The "popularity" argument used against 1st parties feels like a load of Hogwash considering Joker is in at all and Hero is in before guys like Crash and Steve.

Frankly compared to heavy hitters like Ryu or Cloud, not. Bayo was coming hot from her being being released so I

The thing is that a lot of these characters bring something that Nintendo pretty much lacks on the game. Nintendo pretty much lacks on characters like Snake, Bayo, Simon, Ryu, Joker, Hero and so on. So its not really hard to see that these are added to expand the Smash Bros audience.

Frankly, Bayo, Joker, the Belmonts, and arguably even Hero have less potential to expand the audience than a huge Nintendo character like Toad/Waluigi/Isabelle/any popular Pokémon simply due to the sheer disparity in terms of how many people know who the later are. The likes of Snake, Ryu, and Cloud do but we're haven't actually got a 3rd character as well known as any of them this cycle.

 

[Ridrool64]

Scorpion easy. Not a Doom guy (heh), but MKX was awesome and I don’t know why I don’t have 11.

Hey haha here’s a funny piece of speculation. What if Mii Theory is accurate, but instead of Capcom and Namco, it’s two Capcom characters or even Capcom and SEGA? Don’t think Squeenix would have any leftovers, just Chocobo and Geno.

 

[Nemuresu]

Corrin was still a decent seller, despite being considered the low end of Smash 4 DLC.

And your source for that is where?
I don't recall Nintendo ever publishing numbers on who was the best-selling DLC character and who wasn't. And considering he had the worst reception of all characters in Smash 4, I wouldn't assume he was a decent seller.

 

[Guynamednelson]

And considering he had the worst reception of all characters in Smash 4,

Despite this internet drama, the likes on Corrin's trailer massively outnumber dislikes.

Its not like we're getting internationally well known A-list 3rd party characters on the level of Cloud and Ryu this cycle. Even Dragon Quest arguably doesn't have a character as recognizable worldwide as Toad or Waluigi to say nothing of a good chunk of 3rd party characters people here bring up like KOS-MOS, Lloyd Irving, Pheonix Wright, the Chosen Undead or even Monster Hunter. The "popularity" argument used against 1st parties feels like a load of Hogwash considering Joker is in at all and Hero is in before guys like Crash and Steve.


Frankly, Bayo, Joker, the Belmonts, and arguably even Hero have less potential to expand the audience than a huge Nintendo character like Toad/Waluigi/Isabelle/any popular Pokémon simply due to the sheer disparity in terms of how many people know who the later are. The likes of Snake, Ryu, and Cloud do but we're haven't actually got a 3rd character as well known as any of them this cycle.

Remember when Nakoruru was rumored? Because let's face it: Unless you're Terry or from Metal Slug, an SNK character would not be a more mainstream choice than various "Smash bubble" characters.

 

[Nemuresu]

Despite this internet drama, the likes on Corrin's trailer massively outnumber dislikes.

A dislike bar doesn't determine an overall reception when there's tons of negative comments and videos about him.

 

[Deleted member]

Its not like we're getting internationally well known A-list 3rd party characters on the level of Cloud and Ryu this cycle. Even Dragon Quest arguably doesn't have a character as recognizable worldwide as Toad or Waluigi to say nothing of a good chunk of 3rd party characters people here bring up like KOS-MOS, Lloyd Irving, Pheonix Wright, the Chosen Undead or even Monster Hunter. The "popularity" argument used against 1st parties feels like a load of Hogwash considering Joker is in at all and Hero is in before guys like Crash and Steve.


Frankly, Bayo, Joker, the Belmonts, and arguably even Hero have less potential to expand the audience than a huge Nintendo character like Toad/Waluigi/Isabelle/any popular Pokémon simply due to the sheer disparity in terms of how many people know who the later are. The likes of Snake, Ryu, and Cloud do but we're haven't actually got a 3rd character as well known as any of them this cycle.

How can a character from a series already in the game expand the audience? People who know who Toad/Waluigi/Isabelle/any popular Pokémon are most likely to know who Mario/Peach/Bowser/Wario/Villager/Pikachu/Mewtwo/Charizard already and most likely got into playing Smash Bros due to them. When you bring a new series you bring new fans from that series, no matter how small it is.

 

[Door Key Pig]

How can a character from a series already in the game expand the audience? People who know who Toad/Waluigi/Isabelle/any popular Pokémon are most likely to know who Mario/Peach/Bowser/Wario/Villager/Pikachu/Mewtwo/Charizard already and most likely got into playing Smash Bros due to them. When you bring a new series you bring new fans from that series, no matter how small it is.

I mean Rhythm Paradise is a small series that could bring its niche fanbase to Smash...

 

[Lugia's song]

In the sense that he's a cartoon style character rather than an action flick style character he fits in the cute "category".


While I wouldn't say they're unworkable as balanced characters, they are very low on the list of Pokémon that should be in smash.

In terms of Legendary Pokémon for the next (Pokémon related) roster slot, I would pick Arceus since its lore has had the biggest impact of all of the Legendaries.

Spoiler

 

[Guynamednelson]

How can a character from a series already in the game expand the audience? People who know who Toad/Waluigi/Isabelle/any popular Pokémon are most likely to know who Mario/Peach/Bowser/Wario/Villager/Pikachu/Mewtwo/Charizard already and most likely got into playing Smash Bros due to them. When you bring a new series you bring new fans from that series, no matter how small it is.

Banjo makes me think "expanding the audience" is a buzzword. Most people interested in that series would already be interested in a game that has tons of Nintendo characters 90s kids would be familiar with.

In fact, among the three already revealed Fighter's Pass characters, Joker is the one who's most likely to actually bring in a new audience, being that the Persona series is far less associated with Nintendo systems than ones that debuted on them.

 

[Polan]

A dislike bar doesn't determine an overall reception when there's tons of negative comments and videos about him.

a dislike bar doesn't determine overall reception and neither do a bunch of butthurt internet commentators

 

[ProfPeanut]

Of course Sakurai and Nintendo know that newcomers from entrenched franchises bring in the most money! Isn't that why they picked Piranha Plant over literally any other first-party?

 

[Nemuresu]

a dislike bar doesn't determine overall reception and neither do a bunch of butthurt internet commentators

But what''s bigger on the long-run? A bar on a single video or a reaction repeating itself in a wide variety of places?

 

[ProfPeanut]

But what''s bigger on the long-run? A bar on a single video or a reaction repeating itself in a wide variety of places?

Obviously the bar. Internet discourse is a lot more ephemeral than Youtube dislikes, and goes away if it doesn't stay in the spotlight. Like-dislike ratios stay upfront no matter how far in the future one reviews a video.

 

[tenworldsguy]

well uh it would seem i came back at a heated moment

Assuming Spirits deconfirm, what potential SEGA rep do we have that isn't super obscure? I don't know my SEGA well but it seems like modern SEGA is just Sonic. SEGA does have alternate series that aren't that, but when was the last Virtua Fighter, Billy Hatcher, or NiGHTs game released?

 

[StormC]

Honestly don't think there are any first party characters left both popular enough and recognizable enough to outweigh the third parties we're getting.

In Smash 4, sure, it was annoying waiting for K. Rool and Wolf during the DLC cycle, but now? They've plundered the Nintendo warchest pretty dry.

 

[OrpheusTelos]

well uh it would seem i came back at a heated moment

Assuming Spirits deconfirm, what potential SEGA rep do we have that isn't super obscure? I don't know my SEGA well but it seems like modern SEGA is just Sonic. SEGA does have alternate series that aren't that, but when was the last Virtua Fighter, Billy Hatcher, or NiGHTs game released?

Well Joker's already owned by Sega so I doubt we're getting another rep, but Yakuza has been getting super popular in the past few years. If Atlus were still its own separate entity and Sega still had a slot open, I'd be 110% down for Kiryu

 

[Idon]

well uh it would seem i came back at a heated moment

Assuming Spirits deconfirm, what potential SEGA rep do we have that isn't super obscure? I don't know my SEGA well but it seems like modern SEGA is just Sonic. SEGA does have alternate series that aren't that, but when was the last Virtua Fighter, Billy Hatcher, or NiGHTs game released?

As OrpheusTelos has already said, it'd definitely be yakuza. It's a massively popular game, especially in the West. So much so that it is one of the few titles that is both popular and gets yearly releases. Though he's definitely more grounded as a fighter, so trying to get him to fly through the air for his upB might be a bit difficult.

And if Atlus was its own company, I'd be pushing for an additional SMT character.

Honestly don't think there are any first party characters left both popular enough and recognizable enough to outweigh the third parties we're getting.

In Smash 4, sure, it was annoying waiting for K. Rool and Wolf during the DLC cycle, but now? They've plundered the Nintendo warchest pretty dry.

Obviously no 1st party will ever come close to reaching the "hype-ness" of a 3rd party character, but that was true even way back when in Brawl. Like there's no way Shulk or Piranha Plant will ever come close to that level, but despite that they still got in. I think ultimately (heh) 1st party characters are more for the fans of the game than appealing to new people.

 

[StormC]

Obviously no 1st party will ever come close to reaching the "hype-ness" of a 3rd party character, but that was true even way back when in Brawl. Like there's no way Shulk or Piranha Plant will ever come close to that level, but despite that they still got in. I think ultimately (heh) 1st party characters are more for the fans of the game than appealing to new people.

I mean specifically for this cycle of DLC. That said, I think there are plenty of scenarios where a first party character wins out. K. Rool and Ridley were even more positively received than the likes of Simon Belmont. And if you're talking about Brawl, you're comparing characters to Snake and Sonic, two legendary icons in the industry, versus characters like Joker and Banjo. At the point where we are now with first and third parties, there aren't really any first party characters that are both heavily demanded by the Smash fanbase and generally recognizable in the greater gaming mindshare except for like... Waluigi.

 

[Playstation Guy 1000]

I got an interesting Question.
Question 14
if smash gets rebooted to a 3d fighter(in the vein of power stone) would you
A: Be fine with it
or
B: Against it

My own answer is being fine with it,since it can bring interesting possibilities to the 3d gameplay

 

[Nemuresu]

I think it may not be fair to bring it due to the date it was published, but I want talk about this poll again:

Just look at it, less than half of the characters in the Top 50 are Nintendo characters. And most of those are already long time requests that may not actually make it into this Pass due to shenanigans about Assist Trophies and Mii Costumes.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Honestly don't think there are any first party characters left both popular enough and recognizable enough to outweigh the third parties we're getting.

In Smash 4, sure, it was annoying waiting for K. Rool and Wolf during the DLC cycle, but now? They've plundered the Nintendo warchest pretty dry.

*Vigorously points at characters like Toad and Waluigi who kick most third parties' asses when it comes to popularity and recognizability*

I got an interesting Question.
Question 14
if smash gets rebooted to a 3d fighter(in the vein of power stone) would you
A: Be fine with it
or
B: Against it

My own answer is being fine with it,since it can bring interesting possibilities to the 3d gameplay

Obviously against it what kind of question is this.

 

[StormC]

*Vigorously points at characters like Toad and Waluigi who kick most third parties' ***** when it comes to popularity and recognizability*

Toad is recognizable. Popular? Not especially among Smash fans.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Toad is recognizable. Popular? Not especially among Smash fans.

If 'popular among Smash fans' mattered we'd have 4 first party characters and Banjo.

What about Waluigi, or Dixie Kong, or Bandana Dee?

 

[Semajvc]

Hi i’m new here but I haven’t seen a whole lot of talk about this but there are two hints towards Doomguy, in the Nintendo Power E3 podcast there was 1/3 of it dedicated to Bethesda. Towards the end of the interview with Pete Hines, Hines mentioned at 38:28 that “they have a lot of stuff planned at Quakecon, who knows maybe some surprising things for Nintendo fans of Doom” Don’t rule this out because it is at a non-nintendo direct but Joker was revealed at a game awards show.

The other hint you may have heard about, last year the same guy who was in the podcast Pete Hines said a vaguely “oh yeah” when questioned about if Bethesda had talked to Nintendo about Smash. Link to article