Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[StormC]

If 'popular among Smash fans' mattered we'd have 4 first party characters and Banjo.

What about Waluigi, or Dixie Kong, or Bandana Dee?

I mentioned Waluigi above as a possible candidate. Also, characters like Joker and Hero clearly had untapped potential in the fanbase - Japanese fans were over the moon at Dragon Quest being in, and Joker instantly became a popular choice. The characters were simply perceived as unlikely which is why they weren't talked about much before. As for Bandana Dee and Dixie, as much as I love them, I just don't think they're as marketable as these other characters. Maybe Dee among the Japanese fanbase, but Nintendo is looking for characters that grab headlines and attention. They want the DLC to be special and standout, not just another batch of fighters. It's not like FighterZ where the DLC is already planned as an extension of the core roster. The DLC is its own, special product and Nintendo is marketing it as such.

 

[Idon]

I got an interesting Question.
Question 14
if smash gets rebooted to a 3d fighter(in the vein of power stone) would you
A: Be fine with it
or
B: Against it

My own answer is being fine with it,since it can bring interesting possibilities to the 3d gameplay

First of all, I wouldn't like it because it's a genre I'm not a fan of.

Second of all, these questions are more opinion than based than actually talking about newcomers.

 

[N3ON]

I think it may not be fair to bring it due to the date it was published, but I want talk about this poll again:
Just look at it, less than half of the characters in the Top 50 are Nintendo characters. And most of those are already long time requests that may not actually make it into this Pass due to shenanigans about Assist Trophies and Mii Costumes.

It's interesting to see a snapshot of where characters stand, but it's going to be pretty useless/fallacious to gauge pure popularity once things reset given characters with established roles (most of whom are Nintendo characters) suffer diminished demand for the remained of the cycle as a result.

Hi i’m new here but I haven’t seen a whole lot of talk about this but there are two hints towards Doomguy, in the Nintendo Power E3 podcast there was 1/3 of it dedicated to Bethesda. Towards the end of the interview with Pete Hines, Hines mentioned at 38:28 that “they have a lot of stuff planned at Quakecon, who knows maybe some surprising things for Nintendo fans of Doom” Don’t rule this out because it is at a non-nintendo direct but Joker was revealed at a game awards show.

The other hint you may have heard about, last year the same guy who was in the podcast Pete Hines said a vaguely “oh yeah” when questioned about if Bethesda had talked to Nintendo about Smash. I don’t know if were allowed to post links here but I’d gladly edit my post if they are

Welcome to the site! You can post links if you want, but people are generally aware of these statements already.

However, regarding the former, having stuff planned for Quakecon and there being surprises for Nintendo fans of Doom are two separate points. It's clearer with more context, like the actual audio. He wasn't saying the Doom surprises for Nintendo fans will necessarily be at Quakecon.

 

[Deathcarter]

Honestly don't think there are any first party characters left both popular enough and recognizable enough to outweigh the third parties we're getting.

In Smash 4, sure, it was annoying waiting for K. Rool and Wolf during the DLC cycle, but now? They've plundered the Nintendo warchest pretty dry.

I struggle to believe that Joker and Simon win against Toad and Waluigi given that even being bit characters in Mario Kart 8 Deluxe alone puts those two well above the whole Persona and Castlevania series in terms of recognizability and even Octoling and Tom Nook are still recognizable characters in games that dwarfs any game Joker/Simon/Richter starred in in terms of sales. Hero probably deserves the spot more due to importance but I would argue he loses to Toad/Walugi in terms of recognizability and popularity as well.

 

[StormC]

I struggle to believe that Joker and Simon win against Toad and Waluigi given that even being bit characters in Mario Kart 8 Deluxe alone puts those two well above the whole Persona and Castlevania series in terms of recognizability and even Octoling and Tom Nook are still recognizable characters in games that dwarfs any game Joker/Simon/Richter starred in in terms of sales. Hero probably deserves the spot more due to importance but I would argue he loses to Toad/Walugi in terms of recognizability and popularity as well.

Half of gen 1 Pokemon are probably more recognizable than the entire Fighters Pass so far, doesn't necessarily mean they are going to be as popular choices for Smash fighters.

 

[Nemuresu]

I struggle to believe that Joker and Simon win against Toad and Waluigi given that even being bit characters in Mario Kart 8 Deluxe alone puts those two well above the whole Persona and Castlevania series in terms of recognizability and even Octoling and Tom Nook are still recognizable characters in games that dwarfs any game Joker/Simon/Richter starred in in terms of sales. Hero probably deserves the spot more due to importance but I would argue he loses to Toad/Walugi in terms of recognizability and popularity as well.

I'm sorry, but were the Inklings or Tom Nook in a classic NES series that made its name in video game history, or a top-notch title that rivaled Mario and Zelda as as the game of the year? You're giving Nintendo characters far too much credit there.

 

[osby]

Adding Toad and Waluigi as DLC isn't a great business choice. Yeah, they are recognizable, but are more well-known than them and they are already in. If you are a fan of two of them, chances are that you already bought Smash.

At this point, adding Mario characters because of popularity will get you diminishing returns.

Then again, we got Banjo, so who knows.

 

[Idon]

I struggle to believe that Joker and Simon win against Toad and Waluigi given that even being bit characters in Mario Kart 8 Deluxe alone puts those two well above the whole Persona and Castlevania series in terms of recognizability and even Octoling and Tom Nook are still recognizable characters in games that dwarfs any game Joker/Simon/Richter starred in in terms of sales. Hero probably deserves the spot more due to importance but I would argue he loses to Toad/Walugi in terms of recognizability and popularity as well.

You'd be right, but that's not all there is to a character. If we turned this game into Mario/Pokemon fighter, we'd get more people that could snap their fingers and say "Oh, that's ___ from Pokemon/Mario!" but conversely, it doesn't appeal to specific niches of people who are interested in characters they like that aren't from the most popular highest selling franchises in the world.

Basically you'd just be preaching to the choir.

 

[N3ON]

I think Toad is probably more recognizable than many third-party alternatives, but I'm not sure if he'd elicit more hype. Despite being prolific he's never been the most popular choice. He'd probably sell well though, given how many people are familiar with him.

I do think the reaction to Waluigi would exceed some third-parties at this point though. He's become a fanbase darling. He's going to be the most popular character next time. Which - if I remember correctly - is the first sign of the apocalypse, though it has been a while since I've read Revelations.

 

[RWyvern]

To be clear on the Dante point, the current series director said "Well, you think about it… I’m pretty sure that they… all the characters in Smash at least have some game on a Nintendo platform, right? [...] Well, that’s the thing. Devil May Cry has never been on a Nintendo platform. So it seems like the first thing to do would be to get Capcom to put Devil May Cry on a Nintendo platform in some way, shape or form – whatever game that might be.”

By a staggering coincidence, this was followed up by the announcement of Devil May Cry 1 randomly being ported to the Switch three months later. Despite my sarcasm, this very well could have been a coincidence, but at the very least, the game was likely in development for the Switch when he said this (I can't imagine it would take less than four months to develop, announce, and release a game, even a port), and he would likely have been aware of that.

As much as I want to believe, I keep reminding myself it probably is just a coincidence.

A very suspicious coincidence, granted.

 

[Deathcarter]

I'm sorry, but were the Inklings or Tom Nook in a classic NES series that made its name in video game history, or a top-notch title that rivaled Mario and Zelda as as the game of the year? You're giving Nintendo characters far too much credit there.

I didn't even compare Inklings/Tom Nook to Hero, did you not read my post? And yes I think the protagonist of a game nominated for an award at a show most folks who play games neither watch nor care about is equal or less popular than popular characters from games that sold three or four times as much. Why do Persona fans act like everyone in gaming knows or cares about their franchise? Fire Emblem has a mobile game that made half a billion ****ing dollars and nobody acts like FE is a universally recognizable IP.

You'd be right, but that's not all there is to a character. If we turned this game into Mario/Pokemon fighter, we'd get more people that could snap their fingers and say "Oh, that's ___ from Pokemon/Mario!" but conversely, it doesn't appeal to specific niches of people who are interested in characters they like that aren't from the most popular highest selling franchises in the world.

Basically you'd just be preaching to the choir.

Tell that to Sakurai who literally has a rule that Pokémon is entitled to a newcomer every game. Maybe they should give a succesful IP like Rhythm Heaven a base roster spot and save the obligatory Pokemon for DLC.

 

[Playstation Guy 1000]

First of all, I wouldn't like it because it's a genre I'm not a fan of.

Second of all, these questions are more opinion than based than actually talking about newcomers.

really sorry about that, I got carry away with the questions making and I couldn't think of anything that wasn't talked about for a while (first party characters selling well compare to third party characters was something I already did comment/talk about on other websites like YouTube)

 

[GaroMaster]

Adding Toad and Waluigi as DLC isn't a great business choice. Yeah, they are recognizable, but are more well-known than them and they are already in. If you are a fan of two of them, chances are that you already bought Smash.

At this point, adding Mario characters because of popularity will get you diminishing returns.

Then again, we got Banjo, so who knows.

With all due respect, couldn't the same thing have been said for back when they were added in Smash 4 as DLC? What you just described for Toad and Waluigi could just as easily apply to Corrin, as not only did they not really expand Smash's potential audience, but characters such as Marth, Ike, and the Awakening cast were arguably more iconic than them.

I'm not even saying this out of spite for the character, as I actually quite enjoy having Corrin around, but we already had a DLC character in the past that went against these qualities.

Even going beyond that, I don't even know what your Banjo statement has to do with what you explained. Banjo is from a new franchise and thus brings in a new, if somewhat small, audience to Smash.
They're not the same thing.

I guess to go back on Waluigi and Toad being a bad business choice, I just have a different stance on it.
Nintendo isn't just focused on characters that lure new people into trying out Smash (Joker, Hero). They also put in a character that would convince quite a number of Nintendo fans to purchase a Fighters Pass (Banjo).
You are right in saying Waluigi and Toad would not bring in new people, but that's not the only incentive Nintendo is looking for in DLC. Waluigi and Toad could cause quite a few Nintendo fans to jump on the Fighter's Pass and at the end of the day, Nintendo's goal is to sell as many of these passes to the Ultimate install base as possible through a variety of choices.
Do I think it's going to happen? No, I don't, but I do think adding what is essentially one of the most demanded characters in this speculation cycle as DLC would be a pretty good move on Nintendo's part.
It also helps that he's pretty mainstream, so he'd satisfy a lot of casual fans.
Just my two cents.

 

[Nemuresu]

I didn't even compare Inklings/Tom Nook to Hero, did you not read my post? And yes I think the protagonist of a game nominated for an award at a show most folks who play games neither watch nor care about is equal or less popular than popular characters from games that sold three or four times as much. Why do Persona fans act like everyone in gaming knows or cares about their franchise? Fire Emblem has a mobile game that made half a billion ****ing dollars and nobody acts like FE is a universally recognizable IP.

Well for a "show no one cares about", it's clear it has value for Nintendo and fans, otherwise, why announce Zelda and Smash DLC there?

And no, it's not a thing about whether Persona is more successful is, but rather if it's protagonist is more popular than some C-list Nintendo characters not many people care about.

 

[osby]

With all due respect, couldn't the same thing have been said for back when they were added in Smash 4 as DLC? What you just described for Toad and Waluigi could just as easily apply to Corrin, as not only did they not really expand Smash's potential audience, but characters such as Marth, Ike, and the Awakening cast were arguably more iconic than them.

I'm not even saying this out of spite for the character, as I actually quite enjoy having Corrin around, but we already had a DLC character in the past that went against these qualities.

Even going beyond that, I don't even know what your Banjo statement has to do with what you explained. Banjo is from a new franchise and thus brings in a new, if somewhat small, audience to Smash.
They're not the same thing.

To be fair, Corrin has a game where they aren't playing extra to other FE characters in Smash and that's more than I can say for Waluigi.

 

[GaroMaster]

To be fair, Corrin has a game where they aren't playing extra to other FE characters in Smash and that's more than I can say for Waluigi.

I think it's just the idea of how adding characters to a series will cause diminishing returns, and it doesn't really seem like Sakurai thinks too much about it.

I actually edited my post to elaborate my thoughts on it, so I'll spoiler it.

Spoiler

I guess to go back on Waluigi and Toad being a bad business choice, I just have a different stance on it.
Nintendo isn't just focused on characters that lure new people into trying out Smash (Joker, Hero). They also put in a character that would convince quite a number of Nintendo fans to purchase a Fighters Pass (Banjo).
You are right in saying Waluigi and Toad would not bring in new people, but that's not the only incentive Nintendo is looking for in DLC. Waluigi and Toad could cause quite a few Nintendo fans to jump on the Fighter's Pass and at the end of the day, Nintendo's goal is to sell as many of these passes to the Ultimate install base as possible through a variety of choices.
Do I think it's going to happen? No, I don't, but I do think adding what is essentially one of the most demanded characters in this speculation cycle as DLC would be a pretty good move on Nintendo's part.
It also helps that he's pretty mainstream, so he'd satisfy a lot of casual fans.
Just my two cents.

 

[Nquoid]

Nintendo have literally 0 first party IPs not currently represented that are bigger than Castlevania, Persona, Dragon Quest or Banjo Kazooie

You can argue the merits of the characters, but all of those picks are franchise first picks apart from Banjo. They represent new play styles and gaming franchise icons.

The base game was a mix of new (Inklings, Isabelle, Icineroar) and fan favourites (Ridley, King K Rool) but they've made a decision to focus on new franchises to be added to the game as DLC

I love a lot of the characters that people are mentioning from first parties and think they should be in the game. But I'm also not sad to see the great games and franchises from third parties we've had so far in Ultimate.

But if you think people purposefully didn't buy this game because Waluigi wasnt in it? What

Nintendo 100% has metrics that tell them that going all third parties is the smartest business move to start with. 1st party make sense later if we get another pass.

Also, if people haven't played any games by the third parties introduced in Ultimate then please go change that? All of them have fantastic entries and youre missing out.

 

[FightingGhost73]

Im not entirely sure you can put Toad and Waluigi on the same pedestal as these other dlc characters, aside from (as he is a wild card from what Sakurai describes him as)

 

[Deleted member]

Hot take, but I would welcome the Baby Metroid to the roster.

More so if the Final Smash references the fight with Mother Brain at the end of Super Metroid.

 

[Door Key Pig]

I mean, maybe it's possible they wanted at least one of their own franchises new to the series to be DLC? It could just be saved as one of the last like Corrin. It could be a complete set of interesting picks but that didn't happen with base game...

 

[KingBroly]

I think what's taking the Hero so long to release is the four skins, and the animations that come with them.

 

[andree123]

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Sabi knows that a patch that doesn't have Hero in it and it might be a Amiibo update only.

 

[Deathcarter]

Well for a "show no one cares about", it's clear it has value for Nintendo and fans, otherwise, why announce Zelda and Smash DLC there?

And no, it's not a thing about whether Persona is more successful is, but rather if it's protagonist is more popular than some C-list Nintendo characters not many people care about.

The Youtube stream for the 2018 Game Awards has 2.3 million views. More hardcore fans watch the Game Awards yeah but your average high profile tentpole release like Smash or the holiday AAA releases outperform that on day one so most people don't care about it.

How do you determine that Joker is more popular than notable secondary Animal Crossing/Splatoon characters if he's from a game that sells far less than those series? Does nobody who plays those game give a frock about Smash while half of the Persona fanbase are crazed maniacs who frock to buy whatever latest Persona merch comes out?

 

[tenworldsguy]

I'm sorry, but were the Inklings or Tom Nook in a classic NES series that made its name in video game history, or a top-notch title that rivaled Mario and Zelda as as the game of the year? You're giving Nintendo characters far too much credit there.

I like how this can apply to both Castlevania and Dragon Quest.

Somewhat unrelated (I cannot confirm for certain a sales comparison bc Google refuses to give a precise sales answer), but from the sparce Wikipedia info I managed to scrap Castlevania as a series is about equal to Animal Crossing at ~20M, SMT/Persona is about 12M (the weakest in regards to sales) and DQ is at (according to https://dragon-quest.org/wiki/Worldwide_Dragon_Quest_Sales) about 57M.

I don't believe it's fair to put Hero in the group of "Characters whose sales are not good enough to be in smash".

Heck if we doing this sales argument, then GS, Rhythem Heaven, ARMS, etc shouldn't deserve slots because they're nicher than L-Block or Minecraft Steve.

 

[Deathcarter]

I like how this can apply to both Castlevania and Dragon Quest.

Somewhat unrelated (I cannot confirm for certain a sales comparison bc Google refuses to give a precise sales answer), but from the sparce Wikipedia info I managed to scrap Castlevania as a series is about equal to Animal Crossing at ~20M, SMT/Persona is about 12M (the weakest in regards to sales) and DQ is at (according to https://dragon-quest.org/wiki/Worldwide_Dragon_Quest_Sales) about 57M.

I don't believe it's fair to put Hero in the group of "Characters whose sales are not good enough to be in smash".

Heck if we doing this sales argument, then GS, Rhythem Heaven, ARMS, etc shouldn't deserve slots because they're nicher than L-Block or Minecraft Steve.

Dragon Quest has sold more than that actually. https://press.na.square-enix.com/releases/1390/square-enix-announces-pax-east-2019-lineup-and-events

About Square Enix, Inc
Square Enix, Inc. develops, publishes, distributes and licenses SQUARE ENIX®, EIDOS® and TAITO® branded entertainment content throughout the Americas as part of the Square Enix group of companies. Square Enix, Inc. is affiliated with a global network of leading development studios such as Crystal Dynamics® and Eidos Montréal™. The Square Enix group of companies boasts a valuable portfolio of intellectual property including: FINAL FANTASY®, which has sold over 144 million units worldwide; DRAGON QUEST®, which has sold over 78 million units worldwide; TOMB RAIDER®, which has sold over 74 million units worldwide; and the legendary SPACE INVADERS®. Square Enix, Inc. is a U.S.-based, wholly owned subsidiary of Square Enix Holdings Co., Ltd.

Just to let you know, I was comparing Hero's worldwide popularity to Waluigi and Toad, not Nook and Octoling. Hero deserves it more than any remaining first party but I don't consider the guy more popular than the biggest remaining 1st parties thanks to obscurity outside of Japan which is a different argument altogether.

 

[Playstation Guy 1000]

I think what's taking the Hero so long to release is the four skins, and the animations that come with them.

make sense given that 4 of them are pretty much different characters in 1 character slot

 

[Deleted member]

Sabi knows that a patch that doesn't have Hero in it and it might be a Amiibo update only.

Now I'm starting to think Hero will come out sometime after EVO. Nintendo is going to have a clear presence for Ultimate with them doing that online tournament thing where the winner gets a paid trip to compete at the event, and it's not like EVO is a game-specific event like Persona 5's 2 day concert was. It wouldn't be surprising if they hold off on releasing Hero until then.

Still, aside from possible technical issues, nothing is stopping them from releasing Hero before August. If that's happens to be the case, I'll start to wonder if there will or won't be a Smash announcement at EVO.

 

[Deleted member]

I feel the closer we are to the release of XI S, the more likely is the arrival of the hero.

Sabi knows that a patch that doesn't have Hero in it and it might be a Amiibo update only.

Wasn't she on potential legal issues for talking about Nintendo stuff? Wonder what changed.

 

[Curious Villager]

Wasn't she on potential legal issues for talking about Nintendo stuff? Wonder what changed.

I think that was only in regards to leaking what they where about to reveal at E3, wasn't it....?

 

[Nemuresu]

I think that was only in regards to leaking what they where about to reveal at E3, wasn't it....?

Not quite:
https://twitter.com/New_WabiSabi/status/1137914596289679365
Don't know why this girl keeps coming back, putting herself in the risk of a lawsuit like this.

 

[Curious Villager]

Not quite:
https://twitter.com/New_WabiSabi/status/1137914596289679365
Don't know why this girl keeps coming back, putting herself in the risk of a lawsuit like this.

Oh I see.

I'm not sure what she's doing then....

 

[Deleted member]

Just a quick question for the mods, is it better if I remove the embedded content from the replies? I noticed that you removed them from my last post or was there any other reason?

Not quite:
https://twitter.com/New_WabiSabi/status/1137914596289679365
Don't know why this girl keeps coming back, putting herself in the risk of a lawsuit like this.

Either she is pretty daring on the face of a lawsuit or she lied back then due to reasons.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Not quite:
https://twitter.com/New_WabiSabi/status/1137914596289679365
Don't know why this girl keeps coming back, putting herself in the risk of a lawsuit like this.

not even Discord... dang...

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Just a quick question for the mods, is it better if I remove the embedded content from the replies? I noticed that you removed them from my last post or was there any other reason?

Yes. Every embed, even quoted ones, create more embeds per page, which can slow down computers/mobile users a lot. We try to go for a max of 5 embeds as is(regardless of what kind it is) per page.

A lot don't know of this so we just simply ask in public people do this. It's a courtesy rule, not so much as some big hard rule we need to generally enforce. Rarely would any of these cases ever be worth us taking disciplinary action.

 

[Curious Villager]

Yes. Every embed, even quoted ones, create more embeds per page, which can slow down computers/mobile users a lot. We try to go for a max of 5 embeds as is(regardless of what kind it is) per page.

A lot don't know of this so we just simply ask in public people do this. It's a courtesy rule, not so much as some big hard rule we need to generally enforce. Rarely would any of these cases ever be worth us taking disciplinary action.

Oh, I had no idea about that. I'll keep that in mind for future posts.
Thanks for letting us know.

 

[Deleted member]

Yes. Every embed, even quoted ones, create more embeds per page, which can slow down computers/mobile users a lot. We try to go for a max of 5 embeds as is(regardless of what kind it is) per page.

A lot don't know of this so we just simply ask in public people do this. It's a courtesy rule, not so much as some big hard rule we need to generally enforce. Rarely would any of these cases ever be worth us taking disciplinary action.

I'll be more careful with them, thanks for the heads up.

 

[Playstation Guy 1000]

I feel the closer we are to the release of XI S, the more likely is the arrival of the hero.

it is getting more likely to be the case since Nintendo wants to heavily promote Dragon Quest XI by the time when the switch version is released

 

[Polan]

Sabi knows that a patch that doesn't have Hero in it and it might be a Amiibo update only.

wasn't she supposedly gonna stop leaking nintendo stuff because they hit her with a C&D? did nintendo forget about it or something?

 

[perfectchaos83]

Sabi's reporting on a rumor. She's not leaking anything.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Sabi also reported something about Super Monkey Ball Banana Blitz getting an HD release on the "hybrid-console" so I guess she's gonna dodge getting ninja'd.

why not Deluxe or Adventure, or the original since I haven't played it...