Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[PeridotGX]

obviously that leak's fake, but I do think a Gen 8 rep is significantly likelier now. I thought it wasn't happening due to the spirit event, but now that there are pre-existing spirits being added to a spirit board, that argument's gone.

If there is a Gen 8 rep, all I ask is that it isn't Rillaboom or Urshifu. I'd prefer if it isn't Cinderance or Intelleon, but I don't dislike them.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

To be honest, I can kinda see an outcome where Volume 2 may have more first parties than ARMS. I just don’t think the whole pass would be, and that’s based on the Famitsu column I refer to all the time.

I think there’s a chance we’re looking at a 4:2 or 3:3 split.

 

[MooMew64]

To be honest, I can kinda see an outcome where Volume 2 may have more first parties than ARMS. I just don’t think the whole pass would be, and that’s based on the Famitsu columI refer to all the time.

I think there’s a chance we’re looking at a 4:2 or 3:3 split.

I'm thinking a 3:3 split, kinda like how Smash 4's DLC went: Some first parties to appeal to specific fandoms and help advertise smaller games to the wide Smash audience, and some hype third-parties to appeal to the cross-over element. I'd actually be pretty satisfied with this outcome.

 

[TwiceEXE]

To be honest, I can kinda see an outcome where Volume 2 may have more first parties than ARMS. I just don’t think the whole pass would be, and that’s based on the Famitsu columI refer to all the time.

I think there’s a chance we’re looking at a 4:2 or 3:3 split.

Do you think the current trend of first party characters hailing from new, marketable games (or shill picks if that is the vernacular you prefer) will continue? Or do you think older/less relevant characters may be chosen?

 

[Royalty1702]

obviously that leak's fake, but I do think a Gen 8 rep is significantly likelier now. I thought it wasn't happening due to the spirit event, but now that there are pre-existing spirits being added to a spirit board, that argument's gone.

If there is a Gen 8 rep, all I ask is that it isn't Rillaboom or Urshifu. I'd prefer if it isn't Cinderance or Intelleon, but I don't dislike them.

If it we were going to get a Gen 8 rep, I'd prefer it to be Falinks.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Do you think the current trend of first party characters hailing from new, marketable games (or shill picks if that is the vernacular you prefer) will continue? Or do you think older/less relevant characters may be chosen?

Well, yes, but actually no.

basically they won’t be super new stuff like Euden or Gen 8; but I wouldn’t count on it being someone from an older game that isn’t getting some significant resurgence in the spotlight.

In other words, it’ll be someone who barely missed the boat the first time but has something in their favor to increase interest in their game again (like Min Min and Dark Horse saying “hey that ARMS comic is still coming” beforehand)

third party though? Go nuts, that doesn’t apply to third parties

 

[Izanagi97]

Do you think the current trend of first party characters hailing from new, marketable games (or shill picks if that is the vernacular you prefer) will continue? Or do you think older/less relevant characters may be chosen?

Yes

 

[PeridotGX]

If it we were going to get a Gen 8 rep, I'd prefer it to be Falinks.

Falinks is a cool Pokemon, but there's no way it would work in Smash. Imagine Kirby, but there are six of them in a line. It's hitbox would be massive.

 

[The_Naraotor]

In Gen 8 which Pok's is the more likely to be chosen for being the lead rep of said gen ???? I have no clue for this part.

But the direct with Min Min make me feel that F-Zero will have a new rep it's my feeling ^^

 

[Animegamingnerd]

Do you think the current trend of first party characters hailing from new, marketable games (or shill picks if that is the vernacular you prefer) will continue? Or do you think older/less relevant characters may be chosen?

Considering Nintendo is the one pitching to the character's to Sakurai, yes. Its more likely they were pitching first party character's from major games from the Switch era rather then ones that lay dormant.

 

[MooMew64]

In terms of first party, my money is 100% on Gen 8 Pokemon. No way they don't capitalize on that after how well SwSh did. Rex seems like a safe bet as well, although I have to agree with some of what Scoliosis Jones had to say about the subject. Astral Chain's Spirit event was waaaay too late into FP1 to make me consider it, unfortunately. And for a completely biased pick, I wanna believe Octolings have a 50/50 shot now thanks to Octo Expansions popularity and Min Min putting base-game Spirits on the table. Waluigi is pretty much done IMHO, so unfortunately I'll be tabling that particular topic until the next Smash game somewhere down the road (probably like, 10 years from now lol).

Third parties are too unpredictable for me to feel 100% on many of them, lol. I feel Dante has decent odds but other than him, I can't find many I'd feel confident in saying "Oh yeah, for sure them". Maaaaaybe Crash, but a part of me feels some are jumping the gun with that one.

 

[PeridotGX]

In Gen 8 which Pok's is the more likely to be chosen for being the lead rep of said gen ???? I have no clue for this part.

But the direct with Min Min make me feel that F-Zero will have a new rep it's my feeling ^^

The characters people seem to think are the most likely are the starters, Toxtricity (a punk-rock lizard that people think might get the same push that Lucario did), and Urshifu (a new ledgendary in the recent DLC, a kung fu panda). There's also smaller demand for Dragapult (A ghost-salamander that can shoot it's babies like a rocket launcher), Grimmsnarl (an ogre thaty can use it's hair as tentacles), Falinks (basically six spartan Kirbies) and Zacian (The legendary mascot of Pokemon Sword, a wolf with a blade in it's mouth).

Me? I think Mr. Rime would be cool. Why? I don't really know.

 

[Garteam]

Do you think the current trend of first party characters hailing from new, marketable games (or shill picks if that is the vernacular you prefer) will continue? Or do you think older/less relevant characters may be chosen?

I think we'll see one first party (and probably the last character who's added to Ultimate) who fits the promotional character archetype that Byleth and Corrin fulfilled, a character who hails from a game that released in the middle of 2021 (Not sure who this could be, maybe someone from BotW 2?). The remaining first parties will likely be like Min Min in that they hail from modern games that still receive some attention, but aren't brand new. Xenoblade 2 and Sword/Shield get brought up for this a lot, but I think we could also see Bandana Dee or the Octolings fulfilling this role.

 

[Speed Weed]

Taiko no Tatsujin: Don-chan.

HUZZAH

A MAN OF CULTURE

 

[Sc_Ev0lution]

Personally, I don't want another Pokemon, even one of my favorites (Tyranitar, Sceptile, Gallade). But Pokemon is a major IP so it's plausible ig, though not a shoo in.

However, remember FP2 was finalized almost probably before the release of SwSh, so while they could have been reasonably assured SwSh would sell well they wouldn't have know the extent of their success, so I'm not sure "Gen 8 is the best selling pokemon since Gen X" is the best argument in favor of a new pokemon, at least for FP2

 

[UberPyro64]

I could very easily be wrong, but I have a strong feeling these four are coming.

 

[Nightguything]

I could very easily be wrong, but I have a strong feeling these four are coming.

Honestly too good to be true

 

[BernkastelWitch]

For First parties, the only ones I think have a good chance to appear are a Gen 8 Pokemon rep and Rex/Pyra. I doubt we may get both but one or the other seems likely. SwSh is hugely successful despite its controversy and there's some good Pokemon they can use there. Rex missed the cut and Sakurai seemed to have wanted him in originally.

Third Parties is a mixed bag because even the "Safest" bets are not 100% in stone and we could get a curveball there.

 

[Cosmic77]

I think we'll see one first party (and probably the last character who's added to Ultimate) who fits the promotional character archetype that Byleth and Corrin fulfilled, a character who hails from a game that released in the middle of 2021 (Not sure who this could be, maybe someone from BotW 2?). The remaining first parties will likely be like Min Min in that they hail from modern games that still receive some attention, but aren't brand new. Xenoblade 2 and Sword/Shield get brought up for this a lot, but I think we could also see Bandana Dee or the Octolings fulfilling this role.

Kinda doubting another Splatoon rep after the Callie and Marie Mii costumes. That's definitely something they would've saved for then.

Well, unless they're making something else like Pearl and Marina costumes. Those would be a much better fit for Octolings. Still, I'm lowering my expectations.

 

[Goombaic]

Predictions are still the same for me.
FP7: Toxtricity
FP8: Tales of character, probably Lloyd or Yuri
FP9: Ryu Hayabusa
FP10: BotW 2 character, probably Zelda
FP11: Sylux

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Kinda doubting another Splatoon rep after the Callie and Marie Mii costumes. That's definitely something they would've save for then.

Well, unless they're making something else like Pearl and Marina costumes. Those would be a much better fit for Octolings. Still, I'm lowering my expectations.

I’m banking on Off the Hook costumes to come with Octolings. So far the majority of Splatoon content has been of the first game, not a lot from 2, Octo Expansion has only two Spirits.

 

[Garteam]

Kinda doubting another Splatoon rep after the Callie and Marie Mii costumes. That's definitely something they would've save for then.

Well, unless they're making something else like Pearl and Marina costumes. Those would be a much better fit for Octolings. Still, I'm lowering my expectations.

Totally forgot about those. On second thought, I may have to move Octolings to the "Not happening now, but likely for next game" box with Waluigi, Spring Man, Akira, and a Resident Evil character.

 

[MooMew64]

Kinda doubting another Splatoon rep after the Callie and Marie Mii costumes. That's definitely something they would've saved for then.

Well, unless they're making something else like Pearl and Marina costumes. Those would be a much better fit for Octolings. Still, I'm lowering my expectations.

As Rie Sonomura Said, I think there's still a decent shot at getting more Splatoon content due to the lack of any Octo Expansion content outside of base-game Spirits and so little Splatoon 2 content.

By no means are they anywhere close to a guarantee, but it's fun to speculate about.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Clearly, Yabuki and Sakurai have stated that Min Min is one of many protagonists in the game. So what is the point of arguing about how wrong they are?

I guess the point is a futile attempt to try and put to rest any continued "Protagonist first" arguments going forward. But because Yabuki and Sakurai ARE wrong, people are going to think that fanrule is still in effect.

That fanrule should have been 100% dead with the addition of Min Min. But because Yabuki and Sakurai had to try and be be cute, now we're going to have to listen to ***holes continue to use it for the next decade.

I feel that some are over complicating why Min Min was chosen. I don't necessarily think it was as deep a process as Sakurai trying to circumvent a rule: Min Min was added because a lot of people like her, and the Director of ARMS likes her and asked for her. I think that it's as simple as that.

Then that's what he should have said, instead of making up a bunch of stuff about everyone is protagonists and google image searches.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

That fanrule should have been 100% dead with the addition of Min Min. But because Yabuki and Sakurai had to try and be be cute, now we're going to have to listen to ***holes continue to use it for the next decade.

Still it really depends on the game. It makes sense for a character-based fighting game like ARMS where most characters are of equal importance, but it'd be very bizarre for other franchises. Like if they had added Tails before Sonic, or Captain Cuttlefish before the Inklings. Not saying it CAN'T happen, but it'd be very very weird if it did.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

In other news, still no option to select Min Min as a main... the wait continues

also where’s Female Byleth and School Uniform Joker

 

[Staarih]

Regarding first parties, I’d find it nice if Sakurai revisited ideas/characters he had to skip before, seeing as that’s kinda what happened with ARMS (even if he only mentioned Spring Man being too late of an addition and Min Min being a special request).

So basically: #JusticeForChorusKids

 

[CapitaineCrash]

In Gen 8 which Pok's is the more likely to be chosen for being the lead rep of said gen ???? I have no clue for this part.

But the direct with Min Min make me feel that F-Zero will have a new rep it's my feeling ^^

It is kind of weird that they choose Falcon out of all the characters and that they made new line simply for him eating noodles, but honestly I don't see why F-zero would get a new character now. The best chance the franchise have at this point is if we have more echo, which I also highly doubt will happen.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

Look at this:

You are obviously trying to portray anyone who disagrees as saying "Being a protagonist is 100% irrelevant, every single character is equally likely". When most are just saying "It happened once, it can happen again".

Frankly I think your own biases are clouding your judgment a bit. And other people's judgment as well. Let's recap the ARMS speculation for these past 3 months, to simplify things a bit there have been two major groups:

1. The rep will be Springman or Springman with other characters as alts. This is because Springman is clearly the protagonist or mascot of ARMS and logic dictates that he will always get first before anyone else. Since this logic has always held true in the past there is no possible way it can be anyone else, and people who argue otherwise don't really have an argument that can overcome this.

2. The rep will be someone other than Springman and also an individual character. This is because Nintendo has intentionally started a guessing game and there are plenty of circumstances that could lead to someone other than the protagonist or mascot being the chosen character for the first time, the stars are aligning for it to happen so to speak. Opinions on who the character would be were quite varied but I think it's fair to say the majority went with Min Min, myself included.

You have firmly belonged in the first group for this entire speculation period, making a lot of posts about why you thought Springman was the choice, because of the protagonist or mascot first reasoning. You only buckled from this position very slightly a few days before the presentation, when insiders started teasing Min Min.

The presentation arrives and the first group was wrong, while the second group was right. Oh but what is this? Wait a minute... Sakurai said that ALL ARMS characters are a protagonist! This means, in spite of everything, the first group was RIGHT despite getting the character wrong, while the second group was WRONG despite getting the character right. You've all just made a 180º and took a position that none of you would have ever considered just a week ago (Someone other than Springman? Ridiculous. He's the ONE AND ONLY protagonist!) just so you can continue being in the right and the "detractors" being in the wrong.

Well, I'm not swallowing it. Min Min has been clearly not treated the same as Springman for the past 3 years by the ARMS team, Nintendo, and even Sakurai himself (Springman got assist trophy, mii costume and spirit in the base game, Min Min only got a spirit). All of that is more important than a single throwaway line. To me this clearly proves the "Protagonist or mascot first" is in fact, not a rule. Just a factor. A very important factor for sure, but still just a factor. And even if you insist on labelling it as a rule, it's a rule that can be trivially bypassed, as Mr. Yabuki just demonstrated.

You seem to not be factoring in how ARMS evolved beyond Spring Man and Ribbon Girl post launch that many people pointed out prior to the reveal as a relevant piece of contextual information. ARMS in game was completely presented as an equal ensemble cast. There was no clear story mode and no other details in game to signify the idea of a protagonist beyond Spring Man being the first character and default when someone booted up the game. Spring Man and Ribbon Girl were the advertisements that Nintendo originally used to market ARMS. As ARMS grew in popularity and built a fan base, however, there started to be a shift to embrace more of the cast and use them in different advertising roles beyond the initial two. This was a point I brought up in the leadup to our ARMS character reveal. It just didn't have the same history or context as other fighting games on the scene to definitively define Spring Man or anyone else as the "unilateral lead/protagonist." Spring Man got more treatment not because he was the protagonist, but because he was the first angle they marketed the game from, which we then saw a change in over time. Smash landed right dab in the middle, early enough to have Spring Man be the Assist from that early period, but too late for an actual character.

The "trivially bypassed" factor is something that's pretty unlikely to be replicated to be honest. Few games are able to have an ensemble cast like ARMS and are new enough to where roles haven't been so defined to where you can even really get to the point of asking the producer about his preferences for a representative in Smash. And sure, it's a "factor" as much as anything else, but it's only a "factor" when there isn't a clearly defined lead or "main character" from a company, series, or individual game to pull from in the first place or if there's enough hesitancy to allow other choices to enter the conversation. Otherwise it is a pretty distinct line that Sakurai doesn't cross and largely for good reason when you're focused on representing series with individual fighters.

 

[SharkLord]

Alright here's my take. Criticism is welcome.

Challenger Pack 7: Crash Bandicoot (Playstation Icon, new game to shill, popular request, E3 hype pick)

Challenger Pack 8: Rex (Popular request, almost guaranteed lock after Sakurai acknowledged that he would have made the base roster if XC2 came out during development)

Challenger Pack 9: Bandana Waddle Dee (Popular request, base roster and FP1 was chosen in 2016 during development and BWD's popularity and established role in the franchise have only increased with Battle Royale and Star Allies, Waddle Dees are iconic in Japan and BWD is the in-game representation of their prominence)

Challenger Pack 10: Doomguy (Bethesda icon, popular request, Bethesda talked with Nintendo a few years back, Vault Boy Mii Costume got in)

Challenger Pack 11: Lloyd Irving (Some-what popular request, niche pick, Bamco rep)

I'd replace Crash with Rayman due to the Ubisoft costumes and various things pointing his way, but beyond that I'd say this actually lines up with my own predictions pretty well, ordering aside.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

What do you guys think Min Min's code name is?

 

[AceAttorney9000]

What do you guys think Min Min's code name is?

"Legs"

... I jest, but I wouldn't be surprised if that really was her code name, considering she uses kick attacks,

 

[SpectreJordan]

Bamco sticking with just Pac-Man is just so confusing.

Like, with how much they've helped with this game and with both Smash 4 games, you would think they'd get least one more. So incredibly strange to me. Considering the options we have left, I'd narrow it down to:

Tales of: Lloyd is the obvious pick here given the fondness the Tales community has for Symphonia, but I also wouldn't sleep on Yuri: Dude's mega popular, and the rerelease of Vesperia only helped with that.

Soulcalibur: I will admit I have next to no knowledge of this series, so I can't comment on it much. I feel odds for it are decent, but if Tekken couldn't make it, I'm not sure about this one.

Dark Souls: Probably Tales' biggest competition. Barely anyone talks about it in the Smash community as well, which is kind of surprising to me. I wouldn't at all be surprised if we got a Chosen Undead Mii skin at the very least somewhere in this pass. It could very easily make it's way in as a promotional pick as well, assuming DS 2&3 Switch ports are in the works.

Taiko no Tatsujin: Don-chan.

Despite having yet to play the games, I'd love to include Klanoa on this list...However, to my knowledge, his series is kinda dead and he doesn't have massive fan backing like Banjo did, so IDK if Namco would specifically go with him.

I think it’s a modesty thing. They make the game, so they don’t want to be biased by putting their own characters in it. I feel at this point they should, enough people want another one of their characters.

 

[Spatman]

Regarding first parties, I’d find it nice if Sakurai revisited ideas/characters he had to skip before, seeing as that’s kinda what happened with ARMS (even if he only mentioned Spring Man being too late of an addition and Min Min being a special request).

So basically: #JusticeForChorusKids

i don't remember well, so is it confirmed that Chorus Kids were actually considered for smash 4?

moreover, I like this idea, if it means he will revisit Dixie

 

[SharkLord]

What do you guys think Min Min's code name is?

The obvious one would be something like Noodle, Ramen, Udon, Soba, etc., but that might be a little on the nose. Something along the lines of Arms or Stretch might be possible, being the ARMS rep and all. Dragon is also a possibility.
Or maybe Sakurai's a Touhou fan and called her China

 

[Guynamednelson]

i don't remember well, so is it confirmed that Chorus Kids were actually considered for smash 4?

No, but there was partial data for a Rhythm Heaven fighter, and the Chorus Kids seem like the kind of thing the 3DS would screw over.

 

[SpectreJordan]

Do you think the current trend of first party characters hailing from new, marketable games (or shill picks if that is the vernacular you prefer) will continue? Or do you think older/less relevant characters may be chosen?

I think every Nintendo character we’ll see will be a Switch character. They want to use the DLC to promote others games. They’ll save older characters for base roster of the next game.

I could very easily be wrong, but I have a strong feeling these four are coming.

That’d be amazing though. Chief, Crash & Dante are 3 of my dream picks. I’m not into Geno, but it’d be nice for his fans.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

What do you guys think Min Min's code name is?

There was a leak that said it was “Mee” along with FP7’s being “Forest”, but there’s one problem. “Mee” is already her codename in ARMS.

I’d guess “Ramen” or “Dragon”. Maybe even “Mintendo”

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

He literally explained it in that very post

Well I do agree with that but one problem there lad

It Not on the switch...yet why announce crash for smash with a game not confirmed for the switch yet

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

I think the crux of the whole protagonist issue is that definitions are important. Words are powerful, but they are powerful because they mean something. If you change the definition of a word, then that word has a different kind of power than it did before. Most arguments are an attempt to redefine things, whether words or idea, in an attempt to gain something (influence, clarity, etc.).

I'm seeing a lot of people trying to come to terms with a new framework for the word protagonist. Some see the definition changing and feel as though the spirit of the idea has been lost. Others are moving with the change as it creates tangible footing to stand on. Personally, I don't think either is wrong, but there are a couple things to take into account.

The definition has moved. In fact, it has become more vague. With this new presentation, we are no longer dealing with the face of the game or the most present character throughout said game. We are now talking about any of the major players so long as they are relatively equal within the game itself. For many games, this doesn't change anything, but for some it does. For instance, if we got someone from Bravely Default, the new definition of main protagonist would now include Ringabel, even though we would otherwise assume our options would be Tiz, Agnes, or Edea. The Asterisk holders would still be off the table, presumably. If we keep hold of a protagonist or mascot first rule, then we should acknowledge that it is a different rule than it once was. Because it is.

The other point is that if we do away with the protagonist label entirely, then means of discussion will be lost. Points in favor or against certain characters will be untouchable, not because the point are nonexistent, but because the words available to express them are gone. So we need words like protagonist like we need the color blue. It might not always mean the same thing to everyone, but it does help in articulating ourselves.


Sorry if this post seems late for the conversation. I've been making lunch while typing.