Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Koopaul]

I was under the impression that Spring Man was THE mascot of ARMS. This was based on him being the cover star with Ribbon Girl.

Was that really the only reason? Not because he is the face of most of the promotional material? Not because he has a robot clone and no one else does.? Not because he's the one depicted as the guy taking on the champ in various artwork? Not because he is the protagonist of the upcoming comic? Not because he was the one they made into an Assist Trophy?

Just the cover?

EDIT: I misread it. I thought you were saying the box cover. I assume "cover star" means that he's also used in all kinds of things? If so, sorry for misunderstanding.

 

[Rikarte]

Anyone have early predictions on when the next reveal might happen? I don't think we're getting an actual release of Fighter 7 till the fall, but I do think we could see some sort of news about it as early as August.

Considering the situation we're in and the long wait we had to go through for our first character, I'm saying September. Maybe we'll get a general Direct then too.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Coughs in Elma

Eh, I think she's way less likely

With Rex having Sakurai's favor and only being skipped due to timing in the base game and Melia and Seven being on the spotlight again due to the remake of Xenoblade 1, they have better chances in my book.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Live footage of Elma, Bandana Dee, Shantae, Dixie Kong, Rayman, Chorus Kids, Black Shadow, Octoling et al supporters celebrating that the Spirits Deconfirm fan rule is dead:

ok I’ll stop meme-ing after this

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Statements from an era where they couldn't even patch games, let alone add to them obviously can't be used to deduce current mindsets. I mean before Smash got DLC, Sakurai made statements that were anti-DLC in nature. Things have not all held true. Things have changed drastically since then in the arena of what's possible post-launch.

And again, something not yet being present isn't proof it can't be present. That's not just my opinion, that's literally the argument from ignorance fallacy.

I'm not about to say we're definitely going to get an AT upgraded, I mean precedent isn't meaningless, but, with our current breadth of knowledge (or lack thereof), saying it's 100% out of the realm of possibility is just objectively incorrect. I don't know what else to tell you.

One of them was from the previous games. They're not that outdated. So no, it's not just the lack of proof. By their word, they are disconfirmed until proven otherwise.

 

[Garteam]

So, now that Min Min is in Super Smash Bros, her already impressive popularity will sky rocket. Anyone else think she's pulled a Morrigan and usurped the 'main character' role from Spring Man (Yes, I know..everyone in ARMS is a protagonist..but lets be honest, he was the poster boy..there's a reason he was the Assist Trophy).

It feels a little early to make this judgement. Sakurai himself acknowledged that Spring Man is still largely seen as the "protagonist" of ARMS and he got the most spotlight of any of the NPCs in the presentation (He got the most screentime in the trailer, his stage is the ARMS stage in Smash, and he's front and centre on the final Smash). I do expect Min Min to have more of a presence in the marketing for ARMS 2, but I equally expect Spring Man to still be present as the series' face.

 

[slrigeigdew]

To me that emphasizes Nintendo choosing the characters. Just cause Sakurai likes them doesn’t mean they’ll be chosen. We saw how that went with Rex.

Elma time lesgo

Here we thought Ribbongirl and Twintelle were the runnerup picks but it was actually Ninjaboi of all people.

Also, Elma fans are definitely the biggest winners out of all this. Pretty much all her hurdles from getting in just got knocked down today.

 

[Curious Villager]

So, now that Min Min is in Super Smash Bros, her already impressive popularity will sky rocket. Anyone else think she's pulled a Morrigan and usurped the 'main character' role from Spring Man (Yes, I know..everyone in ARMS is a protagonist..but lets be honest, he was the poster boy..there's a reason he was the Assist Trophy).

It remains to be seen I suppose.
People though Robin became the official main protag of Fire Emblem Awakening when he was confirmed over Chrom in Smash 4, but IS continued to promote Chrom over Robin regardless of Smash in other games and crossovers like Project X Zone or that one FE x Shin Megami Tensei thing.

Its up to the ARMS dev's what they will be doing moving forward.

 

[Cosmic77]

At the end of the day, it doesn't really matter what I thought about Spring Man a few days ago. If you're arguing what I'm saying without what Mr. Sakurai or Mr. Yabuki believe today, then it doesn't contextualize the message.

I was under the impression that Spring Man was THE mascot of ARMS. This was based on him being the cover star with Ribbon Girl. This is what many people believed up until today. Today, we learned that any of the ARMS characters is considered a protagonist, which still fits the "mascot or protagonist first" concept. It shows that it is something that they think about when choosing characters. It's even more telling when Spring Man evidently wasn't even in the running that they considered Spring Man out of the running in the first place as an Assist Trophy. Though, I covered most of this in my initial debrief post today.

It would be a far more substantial blow if Spring Man were legitimately considered the protagonist by the developers. I even said today it's a Monkey's Paw, as it isn't the typical "cover star is the pick" choice, but it still fulfills the "protagonist" concept. We can disagree on particular fan perspectives, but I find it hard to go against what the people who created these games and characters believe.

I can see we're not going to agree, so I'll just leave it at this:

Sakurai addressed Spring Man not being chosen because he knew it would surprise people. Even if they consider all ARMS characters to be the protagonists, they're not all equals. Spring Man and Misango are not on the same level, because one was clearly designed to be a generic posterboy for the series — someone who would represent the concept of ARMs better than every other character.

Personally, I'm dropping the "only mascots/protagonists" rule, especially now that people can argue stuff like, "Well, what if the developer of "insert franchise" sees EVERYONE as a protagonist?" I'm sure ARMS won't be the only case in Smash's lifetime where the blatant mascot isn't chosen and a lesser character gets in instead.

 

[N3ON]

One of them was from the previous games. They're not that outdated. So no, it's not just the lack of proof. By their word, they are disconfirmed until proven otherwise.

Can you share that one, please.

 

[Just a random scrub]

Good write-up as always. Almost makes me want to write another essay of my own. Maybe I'll update the Lloyd essay or something.

I personally believe this upgrade is a special case more than anything. After all, Sakurai was approached by Nintendo for this, and when he asked the director of ARMS for input, he got Min Min. Seems similar to when Kojima asked Sakurai to put Snake in Brawl even though Metal Gear had a good home on Playstation. In any case, I definitely wouldn't get my hopes up for more upgrades unless Nintendo gets directly involved again.

Eh, it may have been a "special request", but even Sakurai's second choice (Ninjara) was a spirit. Not saying we should expect a ton of upgrades or anything, but even if we don't get any other upgrades, I don't think Sakurai considers it any form of roadblock anymore assuming he ever did.

 

[Lamperouge]

To me that emphasizes Nintendo choosing the characters. Just cause Sakurai likes them doesn’t mean they’ll be chosen. We saw how that went with Rex.

Elma time lesgo

I do recall Monolith saying they were very proud of XC2 and the game even has references in XC:DE while XCX has nothing concrete (correct me if I'm wrong), so I could definitely see Rex still being an option if Nintendo or MS make the request.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Here we thought Ribbongirl and Twintelle were the runnerup picks but it was actually Ninjaboi of all people.

Also, Elma fans are definitely the biggest winners out of all this. Pretty much all her hurdles from getting in just got knocked down today.

Eh, I'm pretty sure Sawano's royalties still hold her back

 

[KingofPhantoms]

At this rate, Assist Trophy promotions just don't look likely.

Doesn't mean they're impossible. Especially when you look into the circumstances behind why Min Min was picked and Spring Man wasn't.

Saying AT promotions are impossible isn't fair, but I personally wouldn't get my hopes up. Because there are still no grounds to indicate whether someone like Waluigi or Skull Kid will eventually be more lucky than Spring Man was.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Also, Elma fans are definitely the biggest winners out of all this. Pretty much all her hurdles from getting in just got knocked down today.

I mean...

Rex is right there...

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Eh, I'm pretty sure Sawano's royalties still hold her back

They did allow Uncontrollable and Wir Fliegen in XC2, and maybe Elma was pushed to DLC so Sawano could get a cut of the money. Idk.

 

[M@R!3]

well, my hopes for Layton, Sora, ammy, and Pheonix tanked so Imma call it quits on caring about smash unless one of those characters suddenly show up in game

Giving up already? It's too early for that. Not until every character is revealed, or they get hit with spirits/costumes.

 

[Jocario Zero]

to sum things up:

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Can you share that one, please.

Pic of the day. Once again, Waluigi's Assist Trophy joins the collection!! …Which also means he's not a playable character. Just because you try hard doesn't mean you'll make it into the battle.

EDIT: Taken from SmashWiki. That's why the links.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Was that really the only reason? Not because he is the face of most of the promotional material? Not because he has a robot clone and no one else does.? Not because he's the one depicted as the guy taking on the champ in various artwork? Not because he is the protagonist of the upcoming comic? Not because he was the one they made into an Assist Trophy?

Just the cover?

EDIT: I misread it. I thought you were saying the box cover. I assume "cover star" means that he's also used in all kinds of things? If so, sorry for misunderstanding.

I was referring to the box, but was also aware of the other content that he was a part of. I've mentioned the other promo material in the past. But that's essentially what I meant by "cover" star.

 

[DevaAshera]

It remains to be seen I suppose.
People though Robin was the official main protag of Fire emblem Awakening when he was confirmed over Chrom in Smash 4, but IS continued to promote Chrom over Robin regardless of Smash in other games and crossovers like Project X Zone or that one FE x Shin Megami Tensei thing.

Its up to the ARMS dev's what they will be doing moving forward.

Well, with Fire Emblem Awakening, that game actually had 3 Protagonists, being Chrom, Robin, and Lucina..sometimes a story has more than one main protagonist.

It is, but sometimes it's out of their control..like they could promote Spring Man more, but people will probably still think of Min Min due to her popularity. Like with my example with Morrigan for Darkstalkers, sometimes popularity can change the poster child. The Devs can either embrace it like Capcom did with Darkstalkers or resist it. Min Min doesn't eclipse the rest of the cast like Morrigan did at least, since characters like Twintelle & Ninjara are still very popular, but Smash will definitely make her the most recognizable.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Eh, it may have been a "special request", but even Sakurai's second choice (Ninjara) was a spirit. Even if we don't get any other upgrades, I don't think Sakurai considers it any form of roadblock anymore assuming he ever did.

That's ignoring the fact that an ARMS fighter was a special request from Nintendo in the first place.

Obviously, in the case of exceptions like this upgrades become possible, if only for the incredibly heavy restrictions not upgrading a character would impose. Without upgrades we could've gotten...uh, Dr. Coyle? THE COMMISH MAX BRASH (wouldn't have been mad if this happened)?! Byte and Barq (which would've been horrible timing lol)?

If you choose to open the possibility of upgrading characters, you can now include Spring Man and Ribbon Girl, the box art characters, Min Min, the most popular character, or Ninjara, who's also incredibly popular among others.

In this case, an upgrade made sense. However, I don't see Sakurai reopening negotiations with Ubisoft or WayForward since he decided Spirits are eligible for Pass 2, nor do I see him going after characters like Elma or Dixie Kong. Maybe Rex and Waluigi have chances given their immense popularity and accessibility, but outside of those two other special cases, I don't see upgrades happening.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Min Min seems more like the Chun-Li of ARMS.

Not the face necessarily, but an incredibly popular character you would never think of leaving out.

Unless you're vanilla Street Fighter III.

Don't be vanilla Street Fighter III.

 

[dezeray112]

Anyone have early predictions on when the next reveal might happen? I don't think we're getting an actual release of Fighter 7 till the fall, but I do think we could see some sort of news about it as early as August.

Based on the current situation, probably either August or September.

 

[Koopaul]

Well... my fears came to be. People saying that Min Min is the new mascot. But now I fear people are going to be saying Spring Man wasn't even the mascot to begin with.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Min Min seems more like the Chun-Li of ARMS.

Not the face necessarily, but an incredibly popular character you would never think of leaving out.

Unless you're vanilla Street Fighter III.

Don't be vanilla Street Fighter III.

Super Smash Bros for Nintendo 3Ds/Wii U & Super Smash Bros: Ultimate: *is vanilla Street Fighter III*

 

[KingofPhantoms]

...Now that the realization is setting in...This doesn't mean good things for ATs, but it does potentially mean good things for Spirits.

This opens a lot more possibilities than it closes.

 

[blackghost]

“Why was this spirit character promoted over my most-wanted that’s also a spirit?” or “Why is this character a fighter when they’re already represented?”

I’m sure ATs wouldn’t be much worse.

.

not really. representation is something that is really only talked about here. to a more general audience they would see an AT becoming playable as paying for something that was already present in the game. it would be seen as something EA would do or having DLC already be on the disc. having what is essentially a sticker become playable isnt the same as having a character that is in the game recieve some model upgrades and a few more moves become playable would not sit well with people. im sure people here wouldnt mind but this is less than 1 percent of the fandom represened here.

 

[Just a random scrub]

That's ignoring the fact that an ARMS fighter was a special request from Nintendo in the first place.

Obviously, in the case of exceptions like this upgrades become possible, if only for the incredibly heavy restrictions not upgrading a character would impose. Without upgrades we could've gotten...uh, Dr. Coyle? THE COMMISH MAX BRASH (wouldn't have been mad if this happened)?! Byte and Barq (which would've been horrible timing lol). If you choose to open the possibility of upgrading characters, you can now include Spring Man and Ribbon Girl, the box art characters, Min Min, the most popular character, or Ninjara, who's also incredibly popular.

In this case, an upgrade made sense. However, I don't see Sakurai reopening negotiations with Ubisoft or WayForward since he decided Spirits are eligible for Pass 2, nor do I see him going after characters like Elma or Dixie Kong. Maybe Rex and Waluigi have chances given their immense popularity and accessibility, but outside of those two other special cases, I don't see upgrades happening.

Alright, fair enough. I do agree it's only 'popular' spirits that would realistically get promoted.

 

[RandomAce]

Tbh I’m kinda disappointed by the direct.

I guess it’s not really Min-Min herself, when I first got on Smashboards I rooted for Min-Min, but it’s with the trailer. When I saw Spring Man grab the smash letter I pretty much expected that it wasn’t him and lo and behold he gets punched.

Honestly, I’m not liking these “sike” trailers where you think a certain character gets in only for someone else to get instead. It feels like it punishes you for being excited at the prospect of a character joining and because of that it really sours the mood for the rest of the direct. It’s the reason it took me a long time to get to like Terry because of how anticipated I got of Kyo from the trailer.

In any case, I think the DLC is cool and Vault Boy was a complete surprise. Spirits are off the hook which gives me hope that Rex and Zacian could join in, and I believe Sakurai stated that Min Min was chosen because of the director’s request and not outright because Spring Man is an AT, so Isaac could still have some leverage. So not a shabby start.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Well... my fears came to be. People saying that Min Min is the new mascot. But now I fear people are going to be saying Spring Man wasn't even the mascot to begin with.

It may be that they will keep Spring Man and Ribbon Girl around, but Min Min will definitely become much more prominent in future marketing.

 

[zeldasmash]

Spring Man is the guy on the cover alongside Ribbon Girl. The Ryu and Ken.

It just so happens that Min Min is the popular choice amongst fans. It's not a bad thing. I think after this, all 3 can be considered the mascots.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Honestly, I’m not liking these “sike” trailers where you think a certain character gets in only for someone else to get instead. They get you anticipated and excited only to then sweep the rug from underneath you. It feels like it punishes you for being excited for a character and because of that it really sours the mood for the rest of the direct. It’s the reason it took me a long time to get to like Terry.

Yeah, the only "sike" trailer format that I like is the "double sike".

 

[Mr. Robotto]

I just noticed a cute little reference in Min Min's trailer. Ribbon Girl absolutely destroys Spring Man by punching his cheek. Just like on the cover art of the game!

Spoiler: ARMS' Cover Art

Poor guy... Can't even catch a break in his own series.

 

[AceAttorney9000]

EDIT: Taken from SmashWiki. That's why the links.

This is less like an official statement that Assist Trophies deconfirm, and more like Sakurai just memeing up Waluigi's underdog status.

This presentation was an opportunity for Sakurai to say "Spring Man is an Assist Trophy, thus we went for another character instead" and officially put this damn argument to rest already, the same way he did with non-video game characters... and yet, he didn't even acknowledge it. Nothing about Spring Man's Assist Trophy status keeping him off the table.

I honestly find it incredibly frustrating that the simple question of "Do Assist Trophies deconfirm?" doesn't have a definitive clear-cut answer yet, and we're most likely gonna be arguing over it for months and months yet again, until Fighter 7 comes along and maybe answers it for us.

 

[Sc_Ev0lution]

Considering the situation we're in and the long wait we had to go through for our first character, I'm saying September. Maybe we'll get a general Direct then too.

Man, I hope we don't have to wait that long. While being hyper focused on ARMS for three months got old, the two months of no direction that preceded them weren't much better. I'd hope we get at least a hint of character 7 by August's end.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

They did allow Uncontrollable and Wir Fliegen in XC2, and maybe Elma was pushed to DLC so Sawano could get a cut of the money. Idk.

They still had to pay for those two songs, meaning royalty fees is still a potential issue for Elma, and no, a 'maybe' argument that hold on to nothing but hope won't change that like "Tansut saying he doesn't know Smash news means Neku has a shot because Tansut simply didn't know". This is coming from someone who'd prefer Elma over any other Xenoblade characters, especially a certain someone people are assuming has a chance again

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I can see we're not going to agree, so I'll just leave it at this:

Sakurai addressed Spring Man not being chosen because he knew it would surprise people. Even if they consider all ARMS characters to be the protagonists, they're not all equals. Spring Man and Misango are not on the same level, because one was clearly designed to be a generic posterboy for the series — someone who would represent the concept of ARMs better than every other character.

Personally, I'm dropping the "only mascots/protagonists" rule, especially now that people can argue stuff like, "Well, what if the developer of "insert franchise" sees EVERYONE as a protagonist?" I'm sure ARMS won't be the only case in Smash's lifetime where the blatant mascot isn't chosen and a lesser character gets in instead.

If somebody makes that point, then they're not using it properly because it wouldn't necessarily apply the same way as it does with ARMS. ARMS is a fighting game without a story, and the developers themselves made the statement.

Now, if somebody tries to say, "They wouldn't choose Rex as the character for XC2" I think we can all agree that that doesn't really work. I'm not even sure that that's my problem or something that shows that what we learned today is "false" when it's just someone misunderstanding the fact that each pick should be taken as a case by case basis. This isn't even a point against the "mascot and/or protagonist" concept, so I don't see why it's mentioned.

I just feel as though this point is being bastardized for the sake of it and taking out all additional context of ARMS. They weren't going to pick Misango even though he's considered a protagonist. They picked Min Min because the fans love her and the devs love her. The director *of ARMS* sees the *ARMS characters* as entirely equal in terms of being a protagonist. Spring Man was already an Assist Trophy, so assuming those can be ruled out now Min-Min was the top choice.

Again, you can drop the rule, and I frankly don't give a **** if you do or don't. Just be aware that Sakurai and Yabuki literally said it themselves. Not to mention, you still don't refer to it properly. The rule was never mascot and protagonist, it was "mascot and/or protagonist". It's a Monkey's Paw with ARMS, a strange outcome that still is correct under that umbrella.

But yeah, I'll agree to disagree here.

 

[SirBillyBob]

The only thing I was disappointed with in this presentation was no Springman but mainly the weird guides to beating powerful spirits. I thought we could've gotten a neat new mode, but that was just....pointless? Regardless, I still look foward to June 29th.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

They still have five more chances and nothing came up to suggest they are any less likely.

No need to throw in the towel so soon Professor Pumpkaboo...

i know, Im sorry, I just get these nagging feeling sometimes and my pessimism kicks up but you're right that its too soon