Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Rie Sonomura]

I'm super excited for Min Min! She was my most wanted along with Max Brass, so I'm very happy! Her playstyle is very unorthodox and I know I'll have fun learning how to play as her! I'm very glad the stage looks well-made, and 18 songs! Including Sky Arena and [NAME REDACTED]? A remix for Ramen Bowl? Let's Go!

I'm a bit sad for Heihachi, he's definitely one of those characters that deserved to be in Smash, but hey, what can you do about it. Min Min's moveset looked perfect for him as well! But alas... Namco still seems to get the short end of the stick.

Even within the presentation... RIP Pac-Man.

View attachment 275711

PAC-MAN, about to get the crap beaten outta him: “this is fine”

 

[zeldasmash]

Hell yes Min Min! **** Spring Man, I can't even express how disappointed I would have been had that sorry excuse of a "protagonist" been the rep.

What's with the hostility? Did Spring Man do something to you that warrants this reaction?

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

LOUDER FOR THE PEOPLE IN DENIAL!

Um, no. That'd be rude.

Debating is one thing, but face rubbing is another entirely.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Also what's everyone's opinion on CacoMallow now? Seen people say it's all but confirmed due to Vault Boy Mii but honestly... I don't see it? To me, it seems even deader than dead. lol

Cacomallow's been dead on arrival because of the debug menu timer being different, the only people who believed it were desperate people.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

BTW before I leave.

 

[SuperSmashStephen]

Um, no. That'd be rude.

Debating is one thing, but face rubbing is another entirely.

My apologizes. Wasn’t meant to come of rude.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I don't think I'll be able to see any trailers with Captain Falcon without getting PTSD from now on. Everywhere the dude shows up, characters I love get their asses handed to them.

By the way Ben Holt if I recall, you'd made a bet of some kind, right?

 

[Eldrake]

Welp, guess that's a thing...

View attachment 275714

Sakurai casually googling Spring Man while deciding on the ARMS fighter, seeing the manga panel, and deciding "Forget Spring Man, I'm going with Min Min for this joke."

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

I don't think I'll be able to see any trailers with Captain Falcon without getting PTSD from now on. Everywhere the dude shows up, characters I love get their asses handed to them.

By the way Ben Holt if I recall, you'd made a bet of some kind, right?

Falcons presence alone makes people asses get kicked

 

[Rie Sonomura]

BTW before I leave.

Welp there’s your legit leak hours before the reveal

guess that’ll be the norm now

 

[Koopaul]

Your logic a few days ago was that it HAD to be Spring Man because every character added to date has been either the protagonist or the mascot. I made the same assumption.

Every ARMS character can be a protagonist in the Grand Prix, just like every Smash character can be a protagonist thanks to Classic. That being said, there's definitely an ARMS mascot, and it's not Min Min. Spring Man and Ribbon Girl recieve a notably larger amount of promotion than the other ARMS characters, which should've given them a leg up on the others. That didn't pan out though, and we ended up getting a character who was promoted less than the mascot.

You're entitled to believe what you want as well, but it feels like you're adamant about keeping this rule intact, even though it's pretty obvious that them not choosing Spring Man was intended to be a huge shock. They actually illustrated this in Min Min's newcomer poster by having an upset Spring Man look through the window.

Yeah that's the thing. Spring Man was clearly given more attention than anybody in that trailer. The idea that "Spring Man is just the guy on the box" is always faulty logic to me.

 

[DevaAshera]

So, now that Min Min is in Super Smash Bros, her already impressive popularity will sky rocket. Anyone else think she's pulled a Morrigan and usurped the 'main character' role from Spring Man (Yes, I know..everyone in ARMS is a protagonist..but lets be honest, he was the poster boy..there's a reason he was the Assist Trophy).

 

[Garteam]

More Mii costumes again, and...well, did not expect Vault Boy of all things.

Seems like they're using these Miis as a means to appeal to the side of the fandom who wants to see more and wilder crossovers. Which is an interesting compromise!

— Delzethin (@Delzethin) June 22, 2020

An interesting point from Delzethin, what if Sakurai's main method of "expanding the crossover" from here on out is to experiment in using the Mii costumes rather than filling the Challenger Packs with mostly third parties?

I can see this as bittersweet to some. On the one hand, franchises that were perceived as "beyond the scope of Smash" are fair game. On the other hand, it's not necessarily going to be in the way people want...

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Your logic a few days ago was that it HAD to be Spring Man because every character added to date has been either the protagonist or the mascot. I made the same assumption.

Every ARMS character can be a protagonist in the Grand Prix, just like every Smash character can be a protagonist thanks to Classic. That being said, not all ARMS charactera are equal. There's definitely an ARMS mascot, and it's not Min Min. Spring Man and Ribbon Girl recieve a notably larger amount of promotion than the other ARMS characters, which should've given them a leg up on the others. That didn't pan out though, and we ended up getting a character who was promoted less than the mascot.

You're entitled to believe what you want as well, but it feels like you're adamant about keeping this rule intact, even though it's pretty obvious that them not choosing Spring Man was intended to be a huge shock. They actually illustrated this in Min Min's newcomer poster by having an upset Spring Man look through the window.

At the end of the day, it doesn't really matter what I thought about Spring Man a few days ago. If you're arguing what I'm saying without what Mr. Sakurai or Mr. Yabuki believe today, then it doesn't contextualize the message.

I was under the impression that Spring Man was THE mascot of ARMS. This was based on him being the cover star with Ribbon Girl. This is what many people believed up until today. Today, we learned that any of the ARMS characters is considered a protagonist, which still fits the "mascot or protagonist first" concept. It shows that it is something that they think about when choosing characters. It's even more telling when Spring Man evidently wasn't even in the running that they considered Spring Man out of the running in the first place as an Assist Trophy. Though, I covered most of this in my initial debrief post today.

It would be a far more substantial blow if Spring Man were legitimately considered the protagonist by the developers. I even said today it's a Monkey's Paw, as it isn't the typical "cover star is the pick" choice, but it still fulfills the "protagonist" concept. We can disagree on particular fan perspectives, but I find it hard to go against what the people who created these games and characters believe.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

So, now that Min Min is in Super Smash Bros, her already impressive popularity will sky rocket. Anyone else think she's pulled a Morrigan and usurped the 'main character' role from Spring Man (Yes, I know..everyone in ARMS is a protagonist..but lets be honest, he was the poster boy..there's a reason he was the Assist Trophy).

Definitely. She's the one in Smash so she's the one who's going to be the one synonymous with ARMS from now on. I fully expect her to be on the cover of ARMS 2 and in all the marketing if it becomes a thing.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

So I'm going to try to keep my thoughts as organized as possible here, and by no means is anybody required to believe anything/everything I say. This is merely one dude's thoughts on it. You're free to disagree, and I'm not speaking as though my thoughts are infallible. I feel as though I've been accused of this in the past, so I'm prefacing my post with this now. This will be based on as much factual observation as humanly possible.

The Debrief
Obviously, the lead up to this reveal was a 3-month ongoing debate about who the character would be. It was very easily boiled down to 2-4 fighters, however I think it's pretty clear it was between Spring Man or Min-Min for the fans. We get Min-Min as playable, with Spring Man maintaining his Assist Trophy only position. I'll speak more to that specific point in a bit, but I think there's a lot to be excited about. Spring Stadium looks fantastic, Min-Min looks fun to lay (though I'm not sure how well she will do competitively) and we only have to wait a week. For much of the remainder of this post, I'm going to gloss over a few points I have made, or have observed in the presentation.

#1: My point on "mascot OR protagonist first"
For much of the last 3 months, my position was that I expected a Spring Man upgrade because he was the "mascot" of ARMS. With Min Min entering Smash instead, that point seems to lose steam...unless you think back to what Sakurai said in regard to that specific point and in relation to the interaction with the ARMS dev team.

Today, Mr. Sakurai said, "Many of you might be thinking that Spring Man is the protagonist, but that doesn't seem to be the case. Mr. Yabuki said, "Everyone is the protagonist!"

Yesterday, I mentioned a potential Monkey's Paw in which "Min-Min would be considered the 'new mascot' of ARMS". This would appear to be a Monkey's Paw, just a tad different. To the developer of ARMS itself, and evidently to Mr. Sakurai, every character was "a" protagonist of ARMS, meaning none of them are "less than" another. It's simply that Spring Man and Ribbon Girl are on the cover.

It doesn't really matter what the fans think about the protagonist "rule". If you ask me, this solidifies it pretty firmly. They chose the character and consider her an equal protagonist to any other character...that being Spring Man, or Master Mummy, or Kid Cobra. There's nuance to the pick, and I will get to that in a bit. Even though it's a Monkey's Paw, Min Min still fits the protagonist rule due to the viewpoint of Mr. Yabuki (ARMS Director) and Sakurai.

Call me biased, but this is my perspective: Even though it was Spring Man, we still got a protagonist, meaning this strong is still significantly strong AND measurable when you observe Smash's roster as a whole.

#2: Spirit Upgrades
Min-Min is obviously a spirit in Smash Ultimate, prior to becoming a playable character in ARMS. Much to the happiness of many fans, this now brings a potential outcome for other spirits to join the battle, which was previously seen as unlikely. Whether that comes to pass, we'll just have to wait and see, because there isn't enough evidence to suggest we'll get additional upgrades, but that's simply because of the evidence we currently have. It can happen, but will it happen again? That depends on the character, I would say. It also depends on what else the character is represented with in-game. Is it just a Spirit? An Assist Trophy? A Mii costume? Things can be blurred pretty quickly, especially considering the Smash fanbase has more or less lumped Assist Trophies and Spirits into the same NPC category, but I think it's time we take a step back and really look at them as two very different things. That said, next is a significant part.

#3: Spring Man Assist Trophy Out to Dry
Spring Man is on the cover of ARMS. He's a basic character, and is function is fairly well shown in Smash Ultimate as an Assist Trophy. That said, many of us expected him as the "mascot" or "Protagonist" of ARMS. This was clearly sidestepped with the caveat that all fighters from ARMS are protagonists, with Min-Min likely being selected because of her popularity, but also more firmly because she was Mr. Yabuki's "favorite".

When Sakurai talked about who he was thinking of with ARMS, he specifically mentioned Ninjara and Min-Min. He didn't mention Spring Man. We can have an imagination as to why he didn't look at Spring Man, but I personally think we can infer that it's because, well, he's an Assist Trophy.

With that being the reasoning...that doesn't bode well for Assist Trophy upgrades. Many fans looked at Spring Man as a key move to put Assist Trophies back on the table, but that's not what happened. While a character that had no previous presence in the game, such as Max Brass or Dr. Coyle would have likely shut down a lot of discussion about upgrades, Min-Min being the addition appears to put Spirits in a decent position (assuming she isn't an exception, which is yet to be seen). That said, I think it matters if a Spirit was in base game vs. post-launch content. I feel base game spirits have a much better standing.

However, it's my humble opinion that Assist Trophies are off the table. This unfortunately knocks Waluigi, Isaac, and other picks out of the running, which shapes speculation at least a tad differently.

#4: Heihachi and Tekken
A sad moment hit today when Heihachi and Tekken were struck down from contention for Volume 2. This comes as a potential surprise for some, with such a massive character and series not receiving the playable status some wanted. This is a relatively interesting disconfirmation. It strikes down a well known character, but we still have yet to see Lloyd Irving's costume return. While it doesn't mean he can't be revealed in the next video, it's interesting that he's missing.

I would love to see Lloyd myself because I really liked Tales of Symphonia, but I'm hesitant to say the missing costume means the classic, "He's in!"

#5 Conclusion
To wrap this up, I think Min-Min looks absolutely amazing. I wasn't particularly attached to any ARMS character, but I'm excited to try Min Min out next week. I'm happy for the ARMS community and fans who really wanted to see her added.

In terms of what we talk about here, I think this Direct changed things. In my humble opinion, Assist Trophy upgrade candidates that folks talked about aren't looking great right now. We all knew Spring Man would be used as a potential ticket to that being a mainstream argument, and I don't blame people who desperately wanted Waluigi or Isaac to be in the game. However, I think it's fair to say this Direct changed things.

That said, looking to the future I feel it's safe to say that any series being introduced to Smash will begin with the protagonist or "a" protagonist. ARMS is unique in that it's a young fighting game with no story, where every fighter can take on the Grand Prix. Mr. Yabuki said himself that Min-Min is a protagonist in the same way that Spring Man, Kid Cobra, or Mechanica are protagonists. It doesn't seem like a fan rule to me, it seems like something that was backed up today by Mr. Sakurai, and is further backed by the Smash Ultimate roster we have today.

I believe Spirits are on the table, but to what extent? We know in reference to "publishers" (in a separate clause from Nintendo, meaning we're looking at Nintendo + two other publishers) that we're looking at, I would say at least two 3rd party fighters, leaving 3 spots open to more 1st party fighters. I'm not convinced that upgrades will play a major role in Volume 2, though I won't rule them out entirely

I hope I didn't bore anyone with this "debrief" but I'm glad I finally got my thoughts out there. Thanks for reading!

Good write-up as always. Almost makes me want to write another essay of my own. Maybe I'll update the Lloyd essay or something.

I personally believe this upgrade is a special case more than anything. After all, Sakurai was approached by Nintendo for this, and when he asked the director of ARMS for input, he got Min Min. Seems similar to when Kojima asked Sakurai to put Snake in Brawl even though Metal Gear had a good home on Playstation. In any case, I definitely wouldn't get my hopes up for more upgrades unless Nintendo gets directly involved again.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

More Mii costumes again, and...well, did not expect Vault Boy of all things.

Seems like they're using these Miis as a means to appeal to the side of the fandom who wants to see more and wilder crossovers. Which is an interesting compromise!

— Delzethin (@Delzethin) June 22, 2020

An interesting point from Delzethin, what if Sakurai's main method of "expanding the crossover" from here on out is to experiment in using the Mii costumes rather than filling the Challenger Packs with mostly third parties?

I can see this as bittersweet to some. On the one hand, franchises that were perceived as "beyond the scope of Smash" are fair game. On the other hand, it's not necessarily going to be in the way people want...

While the crossover aspect includes basically all of the content in the game and each pass, I think it's far too early to make that call.

 

[Goombaic]

Can't wait for people to mod Spring Man, Ribbon Girl, and Ninjara over Min Min and realize why the Hero idea for the ARMS character was always a bad idea.

 

[RealLuigisWearPink]

RIP Heihachi. But as far as Namco goes:

he's coming

 

[Koopaul]

Yeah those that ceiling in Spring Stadium. I doubt they'll be gone when hazards are off. Seriously. What's with them putting ceilings? They didn't have to even put that there at all but they wanted to.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

well, my hopes for Layton, Sora, ammy, and Pheonix tanked so Imma call it quits on caring about smash unless one of those characters suddenly show up in game

 

[Swamp Sensei]

On the other hand, it's not necessarily going to be in the way people want...

To be fair, the three outlandish Mii costumes: Sans, Cuphead and Vault Boy...

were all characters who's fanbases had no hope for. They were very well received unlike the K. Rool or Rex costumes.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

BTW before I leave.

IT JUST WORKS, IT JUST WORKS

LITTLE LIES, STUNNING SHOWS

PEOPLE BUY, MONEY FLOWS

IT JUST WORRRRRRRRRRRRRRRKS!

Spoiler

(Sorry, can't get that song outta my head whenever Todd comes up.)

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Can't wait for people to mod Spring Man, Ribbon Girl, and Ninjara over Min Min and realize why the Hero idea for the ARMS character was always a bad idea.

Oh yeah. It'll look so wrong.

well, my hopes for Layton, Sora, ammy, and Pheonix tanked so Imma call it quits on caring about smash unless one of those characters suddenly show up in game

Why? There's nothing suggesting that they're less likely.

 

[SirBillyBob]

More Mii costumes again, and...well, did not expect Vault Boy of all things.

Seems like they're using these Miis as a means to appeal to the side of the fandom who wants to see more and wilder crossovers. Which is an interesting compromise!

— Delzethin (@Delzethin) June 22, 2020

An interesting point from Delzethin, what if Sakurai's main method of "expanding the crossover" from here on out is to experiment in using the Mii costumes rather than filling the Challenger Packs with mostly third parties?

I can see this as bittersweet to some. On the one hand, franchises that were perceived as "beyond the scope of Smash" are fair game. On the other hand, it's not necessarily going to be in the way people want...

If this is the case, then I would hope nearly all third party costumes would be in the "deluxe" format. This could also soften the potential blow if Fighter pass 2 is mainly first party.

 

[I.D.]

At the end of the day, it doesn't really matter what I thought about Spring Man a few days ago. If you're arguing what I'm saying without what Mr. Sakurai or Mr. Yabuki believe today, then it doesn't contextualize the message.

I was under the impression that Spring Man was THE mascot of ARMS. This was based on him being the cover star with Ribbon Girl. This is what many people believed up until today. Today, we learned that any of the ARMS characters is considered a protagonist, which still fits the "mascot or protagonist first" concept. It shows that it is something that they think about when choosing characters. It's even more telling when Spring Man evidently wasn't even in the running that they considered Spring Man out of the running in the first place as an Assist Trophy. Though, I covered most of this in my initial debrief post today.

It would be a far more substantial blow if Spring Man were legitimately considered the protagonist by the developers. I even said today it's a Monkey's Paw, as it isn't the typical "cover star is the pick" choice, but it still fulfills the "protagonist" concept. We can disagree on particular fan perspectives, but I find it hard to go against what the people who created these games and characters believe.

If we follow this logic then every developer out there that gets asked for input can easily bypass this "rule" by simply declaring all playable characters in their game as main characters

 

[Swamp Sensei]

well, my hopes for Layton, Sora, ammy, and Pheonix tanked so Imma call it quits on caring about smash unless one of those characters suddenly show up in game

Why did your hopes plummet exactly?

Nothing really changed aside from the possibility of spirit promotions.

 

[slrigeigdew]

Speaking of miis, I love how the only new ARMS costume we got was Ninjara (the other character Sakurai wanted)

 

[N3ON]

And they've held true even with DLC. The fact that they specifically didn't pick Spring Man reinforces this, and I wouldn't be surprised if it still holds true.

So unless Waluigi gets in, they disconfirmed.

Statements from an era where they couldn't even patch games, let alone add to them obviously can't be used to deduce current mindsets. I mean before Smash got DLC, Sakurai made statements that were anti-DLC in nature. Things have not all held true. Things have changed drastically since then in the arena of what's possible post-launch.

And again, something not yet being present isn't proof it can't be present. That's not just my opinion, that's literally the argument from ignorance fallacy.

I'm not about to say we're definitely going to get an AT upgraded, I mean precedent isn't meaningless, but, with our current breadth of knowledge (or lack thereof), saying it's 100% out of the realm of possibility is just objectively incorrect. I don't know what else to tell you.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Anyone have early predictions on when the next reveal might happen? I don't think we're getting an actual release of Fighter 7 till the fall, but I do think we could see some sort of news about it as early as August.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

If we follow this logic then every developer out there that gets asked for input can easily bypass this "rule" by simply declaring all playable characters in their game as main characters

I mean they could.

But that's assuming every game is the same as ARMS, when they absolutely aren't.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Why? There's nothing suggesting that they're less likely

pretty much my pessimism. I already didnt think they were likely but now im thinking they were never likely

 

[DevaAshera]

Definitely. She's the one in Smash so she's the one who's going to be the one synonymous with ARMS from now on. I fully expect her to be on the cover of ARMS 2 and in all the marketing if it becomes a thing.

I agree completely. Like Morrigan for Darkstalkers, Min Min will likely become the first person people think of when they think of the ARMS IP due to knowing her through Super Smash Bros..this may be different for people who played ARMS before she was put into Smash, but by and large she's the new poster child for the series.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

If we follow this logic then every developer out there that gets asked for input can easily bypass this "rule" by simply declaring all playable characters in their game as main characters

Well, it is their vision so if they make that call then it's true. Though I doubt many devs would make that call.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Speaking of miis, I love how the only new ARMS costume we got was Ninjara (the character Sakurai liked)

To me that emphasizes Nintendo choosing the characters. Just cause Sakurai likes them doesn’t mean they’ll be chosen. We saw how that went with Rex.

Elma time lesgo

 

[Curious Villager]

well, my hopes for Layton, Sora, ammy, and Pheonix tanked so Imma call it quits on caring about smash unless one of those characters suddenly show up in game

They still have five more chances and nothing came up to suggest they are any less likely.

No need to throw in the towel so soon Professor Pumpkaboo...

 

[Evil Trapezium]

More Mii costumes again, and...well, did not expect Vault Boy of all things.

Seems like they're using these Miis as a means to appeal to the side of the fandom who wants to see more and wilder crossovers. Which is an interesting compromise!

— Delzethin (@Delzethin) June 22, 2020

An interesting point from Delzethin, what if Sakurai's main method of "expanding the crossover" from here on out is to experiment in using the Mii costumes rather than filling the Challenger Packs with mostly third parties?

I can see this as bittersweet to some. On the one hand, franchises that were perceived as "beyond the scope of Smash" are fair game. On the other hand, it's not necessarily going to be in the way people want...

But he was referring that to the fighters if I recall correctly so I don't buy this theory.

 

[I.D.]

I mean they could.

But that's assuming every game is the same as ARMS, when they absolutely aren't.

Well no, but so what? There's no denying Springman was the most prominent figure of ARMS.
Hypothetical example: Nintendo orders a Xenoblade 2 character. Sakurai thinks to himself "well, Rex right?" and consults Monolith Soft. Takahashi says "actually all party members are protagonists and I'd prefer Nia so please add her". Boom "rule" bypassed again.

 

[DevaAshera]

I mean they could.

But that's assuming every game is the same as ARMS, when they absolutely aren't.

Yeah, that only works for Fighting games, for the most part..like Street Fighter could use it since, honestly, for the primary storylines they usually have to think of a reason to force Ryu into the story while characters like Chun-Li or Guile tend to fit into it more naturally.

Well no, but so what? There's no denying Springman was the most prominent figure of ARMS.
Hypothetical example: Nintendo orders a Xenoblade 2 character. Sakurai thinks to himself "well, Rex right?" and consults Monolith Soft. Takahashi says "actually all party members are protagonist and I'd prefer Nia so please add her". Boom "rule" bypassed again.

That definitely wouldn't work for Xenoblade 2..Rex is obviously, in all ways, the main character of the game..a fighter like ARMS actually doesn't have a protagonist since each character tends to work independently from one another. Fighters tend to have Poster Childs, like Ryu & Spring Man..though sometimes a fighter does have a distinct main character who most events in the series revolve around, like BlazBlue with Ragna the Bloodedge.
Granted, like I'd said earlier, sometimes a Fighter's poster child can change, like happened with Darkstalkers changing from Demitri to Morrigan and now ARMS will likely change from Spring Man to Min Min.

 

[Proceleon]

The integrity of sacred Spirits was shattered today. I feel violated.