Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Lacrimosa]

Ok, with that reveal, Assist Trophies deconfirming new chars still holds up.
But at least that means that Felix, who is a spirit, from Golden Sun has another shot. Yes.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Oh what the **** her grab lets her get a permanent boost to her smash attacks? I double checked footage and this seems to be one of the strangest ****ing characters yet

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

One thing: Min Min's Spirit promotion makes me think a Xenoblade character has become hella likely now - whether it's Melia, Seven or Rex.

I read "Steven" and was very confused for a second there. lol

 

[Mikegamer0608]

Ummm...guys it maybe just the website updating but Min Min is on there now but 6 more slots are in the fighter's page!?

 

[RouffWestie]

I didn't expect myself to have much of an opinion following the ARMS presentation, but after seeing all this... Man I've got a ton to unpack. Can't wait to get home.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Oh what the **** her grab lets her get a permanent boost to her smash attacks? I double checked footage and this seems to be one of the strangest ****ing characters yet

They didn't say that it goes away, but I wouldn't be surprised if it goes away upon getting hit hard enough, and will most definitely go away upon getting KOed.

 

[N3ON]

"Everyone is the protagonist" is a helluva loophole that I'm not sure I can get behind, but if that's the reasoning the Smash and ARMS teams are going with, that trend does sort of remain intact. I mean, we have to go by their perspective, they're choosing the characters. Maybe the ARMS team really does believe that.

Though it does sound like PR speak to me. I think they went with her due to popularity. But it's not like I can prove it.

Also, ATs were never 100% deconfirmed, and they still aren't. This certainly doesn't help their case, but for it to be an absolute 100%, you'd need actual evidence against it, not the absence of evidence for it. It's still conceivable that a character like Waluigi could show up.

 

[Flik]

I'd love him but Lloyd's popularity especially in Japan and how massively requested he is makes me think he'll be the Namco rep if we get one.

*laughs in Yuri "banned from popularity polls for always winning" Lowell*

 

[SirBillyBob]

You know what that means? ARMS is finally getting an amiibo!....probably. Three years late, but the thought still counts.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

You what that means? ARMS is finally getting an amiibo!....probably. Three years late, but the thought still counts.

You forget Sakurai's statement though.

"Who else but Lloyd?".

 

[slrigeigdew]

Ummm...guys it maybe just the website updating but Min Min is on there now but 6 more slots are in the fighter's page!?

Okay... annnnd???

 

[DevaAshera]

What I want to know is what happens with Min Min's existing Spirit?

Min Min's Spirit will probably remain unchanged and they'll just use different artwork for her Playable Spirit (or just have her like Cloud & Pokémon Trainer with only her Smash Render).
If the former, they could go with this one, just with the background taken out or something.

 

[Evil Trapezium]

Also, ATs were never 100% deconfirmed, and they still aren't. This certainly doesn't help their case, but for it to be an absolute 100%, you'd need actual evidence against it, not the absence of evidence for it. It's still conceivable that a character like Waluigi could show up.

The absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence!

Sorry, it was too good to pass up!

 

[Neverx]

I seriously think Rex is inevitable as this point, I just can't see why Sakurai wouldn't add him

 

[Cosmic77]

My line of thinking was that if they were decided before the second pass's roster, then they're safe. If not then...they're not.

Spirits exist for the sole purpose of how easy they are to make compared to trophies.

If there's a big game coming out that should obviously warrant Spirits, I think Sakurai would be willing to take the time to add them, if only to commemorate the release of the game. Even if a Spirit was released today, there would still be almost a year and a half between now and the final fighter.

Course, if something like BotW2 got Spirits and we're already more than halfway through the pass when they were added, I'd more hesitant to say a DLC character was on the table.

 

[Nekoo]

Remember the tweet saying we might mostly get First Party or a focus on them from Imran.

Discredit it. He's a neaky fella. He did write these tweets for a peculiar reason.

pic.twitter.com/QYXseUqfP7

— Imran Khan (@imranzomg) June 22, 2020

 

[DarthEnderX]

Remember: Everyone is a protagonist in ARMS. There is your loophole.

All that tells me is that the developer of ARMS doesn't know what a protagonist is.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

When you're waiting for the second Namco rep to arrive.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

i see no difference pic.twitter.com/llso1p5bK7

— 𝙎𝘼𝙆💫 #SurvivedGege (@SakVIII) June 22, 2020

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Also, ATs were never 100% deconfirmed, and they still aren't.

There are multiple examples of them saying that an Assist Trophy character will not be playable so they kinda were and still are.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

What I want to know is what happens with Min Min's existing Spirit?

Side note, Min Min looks both incredibly awkward to play and equally broken.

Probably change the artwork and rename it Minmin (ARMS).

 

[Mikegamer0608]

Okay... annnnd???

I know the Website did this before when it updates but its cool that more slots can be added on the site. So the possibility for another pass can happen in the future.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

There are multiple examples of them saying that an Assist Trophy character will not be playable so they kinda were and still are.

And there were examples of Sakurai saying Ridley won't be playable too and that kind of went in the toilet.

I definitely know that Ridley’s a much-anticipated name for fans, but if we made Ridley as a fighter, it wouldn’t be Ridley any longer...it’d have to be shrunk down, or its wings reduced in size, or be unable to fly around freely.​

Providing accurate portrayals of characters is something I want to pay ample attention to...if I don’t stick to that thought, then we’d have to lower the quality or break the balance of the game. Something that goes way off spec could break the entire game.​

 

[3BitSaurus]

I read "Steven" and was very confused for a second there. lol

Ah yes, the iconic character Steven from Xenoblade! Will come with an Ezio Mii Costume for Ubisoft's famous franchise Altair and a second costume for Bethesda's Vault Boy series!

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

So I'm going to try to keep my thoughts as organized as possible here, and by no means is anybody required to believe anything/everything I say. This is merely one dude's thoughts on it. You're free to disagree, and I'm not speaking as though my thoughts are infallible. I feel as though I've been accused of this in the past, so I'm prefacing my post with this now. This will be based on as much factual observation as humanly possible.

The Debrief
Obviously, the lead up to this reveal was a 3-month ongoing debate about who the character would be. It was very easily boiled down to 2-4 fighters, however I think it's pretty clear it was between Spring Man or Min-Min for the fans. We get Min-Min as playable, with Spring Man maintaining his Assist Trophy only position. I'll speak more to that specific point in a bit, but I think there's a lot to be excited about. Spring Stadium looks fantastic, Min-Min looks fun to play (though I'm not sure how well she will do competitively) and we only have to wait a week. For much of the remainder of this post, I'm going to gloss over a few points I have made, or have observed in the presentation.

#1: My point on "mascot OR protagonist first"
For much of the last 3 months, my position was that I expected a Spring Man upgrade because he was the "mascot" of ARMS. With Min Min entering Smash instead, that point seems to lose steam...unless you think back to what Sakurai said in regard to that specific point and in relation to the interaction with the ARMS dev team.

Today, Mr. Sakurai said, "Many of you might be thinking that Spring Man is the protagonist, but that doesn't seem to be the case. Mr. Yabuki said, "Everyone is the protagonist!"

Yesterday, I mentioned a potential Monkey's Paw in which "Min-Min would be considered the 'new mascot' of ARMS". This would appear to be a Monkey's Paw, just a tad different. To the developer of ARMS itself, and evidently to Mr. Sakurai, every character was "a" protagonist of ARMS, meaning none of them are "less than" another. It's simply that Spring Man and Ribbon Girl are on the cover.

It doesn't really matter what the fans think about the protagonist "rule". If you ask me, this solidifies it pretty firmly. They chose the character and consider her an equal protagonist to any other character...that being Spring Man, or Master Mummy, or Kid Cobra. There's nuance to the pick, and I will get to that in a bit. Even though it's a Monkey's Paw, Min Min still fits the protagonist rule due to the viewpoint of Mr. Yabuki (ARMS Director) and Sakurai.

Call me biased, but this is my perspective: Even though it was Spring Man, we still got a protagonist, meaning this concept is still significantly strong AND measurable when you observe Smash's roster as a whole.

#2: Spirit Upgrades
Min-Min is obviously a spirit in Smash Ultimate, prior to becoming a playable character in ARMS. Much to the happiness of many fans, this now brings a potential outcome for other spirits to join the battle, which was previously seen as unlikely. Whether that comes to pass, we'll just have to wait and see, because there isn't enough evidence to suggest we'll get additional upgrades, but that's simply because of the evidence we currently have. It can happen, but will it happen again? That depends on the character, I would say. It also depends on what else the character is represented with in-game. Is it just a Spirit? An Assist Trophy? A Mii costume? Things can be blurred pretty quickly, especially considering the Smash fanbase has more or less lumped Assist Trophies and Spirits into the same NPC category, but I think it's time we take a step back and really look at them as two very different things. That said, next is a significant part.

#3: Spring Man Assist Trophy Out to Dry
Spring Man is on the cover of ARMS. He's a basic character, and is function is fairly well shown in Smash Ultimate as an Assist Trophy. That said, many of us expected him as the "mascot" or "Protagonist" of ARMS. This was clearly sidestepped with the caveat that all fighters from ARMS are protagonists, with Min-Min likely being selected because of her popularity, but also more firmly because she was Mr. Yabuki's "favorite".

When Sakurai talked about who he was thinking of with ARMS, he specifically mentioned Ninjara and Min-Min. He didn't mention Spring Man. We can have an imagination as to why he didn't look at Spring Man, but I personally think we can infer that it's because, well, he's an Assist Trophy.

With that being the reasoning...that doesn't bode well for Assist Trophy upgrades. Many fans looked at Spring Man as a key move to put Assist Trophies back on the table, but that's not what happened. While a character that had no previous presence in the game, such as Max Brass or Dr. Coyle would have likely shut down a lot of discussion about upgrades, Min-Min being the addition appears to put Spirits in a decent position (assuming she isn't an exception, which is yet to be seen). That said, I think it matters if a Spirit was in base game vs. post-launch content. I feel base game spirits have a much better standing.

However, it's my humble opinion that Assist Trophies are off the table. This unfortunately knocks Waluigi, Isaac, and other picks out of the running, which shapes speculation at least a tad differently.

#4: Heihachi and Tekken
A sad moment hit today when Heihachi and Tekken were struck down from contention for Volume 2. This comes as a potential surprise for some, with such a massive character and series not receiving the playable status some wanted. This is a relatively interesting disconfirmation. It strikes down a well known character, but we still have yet to see Lloyd Irving's costume return. While it doesn't mean he can't be revealed in the next video, it's interesting that he's missing.

I would love to see Lloyd myself because I really liked Tales of Symphonia, but I'm hesitant to say the missing costume means the classic, "He's in!"

#5 Conclusion
To wrap this up, I think Min-Min looks absolutely amazing. I wasn't particularly attached to any ARMS character, but I'm excited to try Min Min out next week. I'm happy for the ARMS community and fans who really wanted to see her added.

In terms of what we talk about here, I think this Direct changed things. In my humble opinion, Assist Trophy upgrade candidates that folks talked about aren't looking great right now. We all knew Spring Man would be used as a potential ticket to that being a mainstream argument, and I don't blame people who desperately wanted Waluigi or Isaac to be in the game. However, I think it's fair to say this Direct changed things.

That said, looking to the future I feel it's safe to say that any series being introduced to Smash will begin with the protagonist or "a" protagonist. ARMS is unique in that it's a young fighting game with no story, where every fighter can take on the Grand Prix. Mr. Yabuki said himself that Min-Min is a protagonist in the same way that Spring Man, Kid Cobra, or Mechanica are protagonists. It doesn't seem like a fan rule to me, it seems like something that was backed up today by Mr. Sakurai, and is further backed by the Smash Ultimate roster we have today.

I believe Spirits are on the table, but to what extent? We know in reference to "publishers" (in a separate clause from Nintendo, meaning we're looking at Nintendo + two other publishers) that we're looking at, I would say at least two 3rd party fighters, leaving 3 spots open to more 1st party fighters. I'm not convinced that upgrades will play a major role in Volume 2, though I won't rule them out entirely

I hope I didn't bore anyone with this "debrief" but I'm glad I finally got my thoughts out there. Thanks for reading!

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

I'd love him but Lloyd's popularity especially in Japan and how massively requested he is makes me think he'll be the Namco rep if we get one.

Except Lloyd ain't popular.

Don't get me wrong, I'm rooting for Lloyd. I wouldn't have written an essay on him if I weren't, but he's lucky to make the Top 15 in Tales of character popularity polls. And a majority of his requests come from core Smash Bros. fans, with what I would guess to be a significant portion of them being Western fans.

Lloyd has valid reasons for inclusion, and I personally believe he'll be the major concession to core fans in this pass. However, he's not nearly as popular as you're hyping him up to be.

 

[frozolloyd]

*laughs in Yuri "banned from popularity polls for always winning" Lowell*

I'm pretty sure they were referring to popularity within the smash circles, not popularity within the Tales fandom.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

And there were examples of Sakurai saying Ridley won't be playable too and that kind of went in the toilet.

I definitely know that Ridley’s a much-anticipated name for fans, but if we made Ridley as a fighter, it wouldn’t be Ridley any longer...it’d have to be shrunk down, or its wings reduced in size, or be unable to fly around freely.​

Providing accurate portrayals of characters is something I want to pay ample attention to...if I don’t stick to that thought, then we’d have to lower the quality or break the balance of the game. Something that goes way off spec could break the entire game.​

Big difference, that was for an different Smash game.

Also due to how highly demanded Ridley was, he gave in eventually and to make him work, created his own design for Smash taking traits from various Metroid games.

 

[slrigeigdew]

I know the Website did this before when it updates but its cool that more slots can be added on the site.

Sakurai said he wants to give us at least 5 more characters so that doesn't surprise me.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

And there were examples of Sakurai saying Ridley won't be playable too and that kind of went in the toilet.

I definitely know that Ridley’s a much-anticipated name for fans, but if we made Ridley as a fighter, it wouldn’t be Ridley any longer...it’d have to be shrunk down, or its wings reduced in size, or be unable to fly around freely.​

Providing accurate portrayals of characters is something I want to pay ample attention to...if I don’t stick to that thought, then we’d have to lower the quality or break the balance of the game. Something that goes way off spec could break the entire game.​

Still, I think it's safe to assume that previous statements hold true until proven otherwise.

 

[SirBillyBob]

I wonder what balance changes they'll make in this patch. Hoping for Falcon and Hero changes.

 

[Schnee117]

There was a problem fetching the tweet

They're using base game spirits on the board, something to consider

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

I seriously think Rex is inevitable as this point, I just can't see why Sakurai wouldn't add him

Because there’s a better Xenoblade character who is beloved by everyone, the most popular character from their game, is a character that doesn’t have ANY music tracks or stages exclusive to their game, uses a dual wielding sword and gun style, and is a woman of color. That’s right, lads!

 

[DarthEnderX]

My biggest disappointment, no new Echoes. Was really hoping that would be a thing in season 2...

 

[Michael the Spikester]

They're using base game spirits on the board, something to consider

I would have thought if anything they'd use Captain Falcon for Max Brass.

 

[slrigeigdew]

The "protag first" and "Spirits deconfirm" fanrules may be dead but the "Boring/generic stage with DLC character" rule is still going strong.

Still can't believe they didn't go with Ramen Bowl. It's her own ****ing stage!

 

[Sysreq]

Hell yes Min Min! **** Spring Man, I can't even express how disappointed I would have been had that sorry excuse of a "protagonist" been the rep.

 

[Garteam]

I don't want to repeat myself, but I do think Springman will be added eventually to Smash Bros as he is one of the dev's favorites, he had a prominent role in the reveal trailer, he was noted as being the general public's idea of ARMS' protagonist, and he was an Ace spirit alongside Min Min. Which in that case, there does seem to be some hope on the horizon for us Spring fans.

Plus, he's kind of following in Chrom's footsteps for gaining popularity after he got deconfirmed. Similar to how Chrom went from being regarded boring shillpick to a lovable oaf who's always in the wrong place at the wrong time ala Yamcha, people seem to be much more receptive to the idea of Spring Man after his deconfirmation.

I mean, it worked out so well for Chrom he was able to be promoted to an echo fighter. Spring Man couldn't do the same for Min Min, given that her moveset really taps into her unique identity, but any popularity gained may help in the future when being considered either as a completely new playable character or as the Isabelle to Min Min's Villager.

 

[Wunderwaft]

There was a problem fetching the tweet

They're using base game spirits on the board, something to consider

I guess they don't have to make multiple different Waluigi spirits if he was a fighter DLC in that case. They can just reuse Mario spirits from the base game.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

The "protag first" and "Spirits deconfirm" fanrules may be dead...

The former one still isn't actually due to their silly loophole.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Hell yes Min Min! **** Spring Man, I can't even express how disappointed I would have been had that sorry excuse of a "protagonist" been the rep.

Whoa there? Are you okay?