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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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XorahnGaia

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We'll just have to remind everyone that two isn't a discernable pattern either. You need at least 3 points of data.
For the last past we had 4 points of data that indicate that we would only get third party and Byleth still made it.

Patterns don't need "X points of data" to exist, but even when those points of data exist it doesn't that the pattern they point to is absolute.
 

Opossum

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We will just have to agree to disagree about Waluigi. I have just never seen the appeal, and every time someone tries to make a case for him it just seems like a reach for why he should be in.

The difference between Waluigi and the other spin-off characters though are that the either played a major role in a mainline title (Rosalina and Bowser Jr./Koopalings.) or have gone on to star in their own titles (Donkey Kong, Diddy Kong, Wario, Yoshi.) Waluigi hasn’t done any of that as of yet. The only curveball being Piranha Plant, but even then it’s been a long standing enemy that has appeared in mainline titles. Daisy is an echo fighter, she is was easy to add in. That mixed with her popularity and support is what got her in. Waluigi has no one to be an echo of within the Mario/Wario franchise. We have yet to see an Echo of a character that are not in the same franchise.

I’m not saying he will never happen. I know better than that. I am well aware it’s in the realm of possibilities. I just think there is precedent for other Mario characters to make it in beforehand. Namely Paper Mario.
The "major, mainline" titles routinely sell several hundred thousand, if not million, fewer copies than Mario Kart. Chances are more people have played Mario Kart than the mainline platformers. Trying to devalue Waluigi because he only appears in the more successful half of the Mario series doesn't make any sense to me.
 

Flyboy

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Friendly reminder that since SNK had a recent crossover with WWE, and we have Terry and an ARMS character in Smash, all we'd need is a Tekken character to link all of these universes together by proxy. :roll:
Scenes when Heihachi is Fighter 7 or 8 and we have the true greatest crossover of all time.
 

SuperSmashStephen

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Before this goes any further on my end let me just say that I do not have a problem with Spring Man getting in. I am simply trying to state why I think it’s not going to be him, and that I’d rather it be an ARMS character not already represented in the game with a already rendered 3D model. Namely, Ribbon Girl or Min Min. The latter which I think would work better within the context of Smash.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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Patterns don't need "X points of data" to exist, but even when those points of data exist it doesn't that the pattern they point to is absolute.
They kinda do though. You can't have a pattern with no data, or even just one point. I'd argue you need at least three for anything to be discernable (2, 4, 6 and 2, 4, 16 are both common patterns that start the same way, making 2 & 4 unhelpful).

I do agree that with this, any patterns are likely coincidence and/or could just be broken at any point.
 

Perkilator

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But choosing Robin doesn’t disable your opponent from picking Chrom.

Choosing Piranha Plant doesn’t disable your opponent from choosing Mario.

And Zero Suit Samus and Samus are the same person, just minus the suit.

The issue with Spring Man being upgraded in the same game that he is an Assist Trophy in is that if someone is always picking him, then the development time that went into making him an Assist Trophy in the first place is essentially wasted development time.

This is different from stage/assist trophy disablement as chances are you won’t always be playing on the same stage through various modes, and online play chances are you won’t often play on Spear Pillar or Great Bay everytime, but if you or your opponent become Spring Man mains chances are you will never see the Assist Trophy summon again. While it may seem small and insignificant in the grand scheme of things, that is still development time that could’ve been spent on something else.

Now, before I’m sent to death for my slander of Spring Man, if with his reveal, they in turn reveal his Assist Trophy has been revamped into Springtron (Something that could be easily done.) Then I would be totally fine and welcome his inclusion into Smash.
SEE? This guy gets it!
 

3BitSaurus

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Scenes when Heihachi is Fighter 7 or 8 and we have the true greatest crossover of all time.
Can't wait for WWE Super Smash.

I’d rather it be an ARMS character not already represented in the game with a already rendered 3D model.
That's... incredibly specific. You'd be fine with Spirit promotions, but not ATs?
 

CosmicQuark

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About Waluigi: Alright, whatever then. I just don’t think it’s fair.

As for your second point: Mario’s main mascots are already in, as well as a few popular side-characters. And Waluigi is popular, too. Besides, I never said Ribbon Girl couldn’t get in. She could, and she’s popular too. I just think Spring Man is the main face while she’s the second face; that still puts her above every other ARMS character besides Spring Man as far as mascots go.

And Daisy is still based on her spinoff self, where she’s only used nowadays. In Super Mario Land, she was essentially a filler for Peach since Mario had to go through somewhere other than the Mushroom Kingdom with different characters, and she was pretty much Peach but different name and look. She even looked just like Peach but reskinned in the original spinoffs that featured her.
Agreed. It’s an overgeneralization to take anecdotal encounters and claim that represent a majority. We’re talking about thousands if not millions of people who can belong to a niche fan base.

I also think Spring Man is above the rest, though I would say ARMS is possibly an exception—the trailer started with Spring Man and Ribbon Girl on kinda equal... arming. Which is why I consider them dual mascots for the franchise and could see Ribbon Girl as the sole rep, in ways I can’t see Min Min and the others. I could also see an Inkling Girl/Boy dynamic with them moreso than a Hero deal.

While there are more popular characters than SM/RG amongst the ARMS fanbase, more broadly among Smash and Nintendo fans, I think it’s likely Spring Man and Ribbon Girl are still more popular, especially looking at polls and speculation/fake leaks prior to the assist trophy reveal. It’s not that Sakurai prefers mascot/protagonist characters—mascot characters tend to be the most popular amongst a broader demographic because, being mascots, they’re the only ones people really have heard of. And while it’s not all about popularity, as Sakurai mentioned, it’s still a factor to consider.
 
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SNEKeater

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There will be no other character reveals btw

That's not surprising, but after how barely communicative Nintendo has been in the last months, I was thinking that maybe they would announce FP7 as well. I guess we will have to wait until the september direct.


He's right you know. I still feel strongly that Min Min is becoming the Scorpion of Arms.
And Twintelle is the Sub-Zero.
I mean, let's see if that post ages well. It could be the case, but we don't know. Expecting Springman isn't crazy with the info we have about ARMS so far. The only obstacle he has is the AT thing.
Of course, maybe Nintendo will announce ARMS 2 during monday and Min Min will be the protagonist or something like that, but if I'm being honest that sounds more like a fan wish than anything else. Min Min is cool and popular, but it's not like Springman is absolutely disliked by everyone. Sure, maybe he isn't the most exciting option for Smash, but that doesn't mean he's a bad character or an unpopular one. And well, he and Ribbon Girl work very well as being protags/mascots/posterboys/whatever of ARMS.

I don't know. For all we know maybe we won't get a new ARMS game, and I don't really believe Min Min is super really popular enough to 'dethrone' Springman and Ribbon Girl. Certainly Mortal Kombat proves that is possible, but we should keep in mind that if anything, MK's exception, not the rule. Probably there's some other fighting games where something similar happened, but that wouldn't be the majority. Also, context matters. The first MK game came out in 1992. ARMS in 2017.

To clarify, I really like Min Min, more than Springman which I also like, but I also think that Springman does a better job when it comes to rep ARMS.
 

MooMew64

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I've probably come as super flip floppy about Spring Man today, lol. Feel like I'm on some Smash Bros. version of the the 5 stages of grief. :p

We'll see what ends up happening on Monday. Still rooting for my girl Min Min even if I know SM is probably inevitable.
 

SuperSmashStephen

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Can't wait for WWE Super Smash.



That's... incredibly specific. You'd be fine with Spirit promotions, but not ATs?
I’m only okay with Spirit promotions because I view Spirits as the successor to what trophies were albeit they serve a somewhat different purpose. I made an entire post about it earlier in the week and stated that if Lucas and Mewtwo having trophies on Wii U/3DS didn’t stop them from becoming DLC, I don’t see why Spirits would stop Ribbon Girl or Min Min.

With Assist Trophies, we’ve only ever seen promotions in next installments ala Little Mac from Brawl to Wii U/3DS or Isabelle from Wii U/3DS to Ultimate.

If it’s Spring Man, great. I honestly don’t care that much. I won’t be upset or angry, and I’ll happily admit I was wrong about the whole situation. It’s just unprecedented at this point to have an Assist upgraded in the same game.

I’m more so opposed to it because of the can of worms it will open in regards to future Smash speculation.

A new character is new character. As long as their inclusion is warranted I’m fine. I am just personally rooting for Min Min with Ribbon Girl being a close second and the more likely choice between the two I want if I’m being honest with myself.
 

Guynamednelson

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not already represented in the game with a already rendered 3D model. Namely, Ribbon Girl
Pick one.
I’m more so opposed to it because of the can of worms it will open in regards to future Smash speculation
There was already a huge can of worms opened when people thought 4 third parties would lead to us getting 7 more expensive ones.
 

3BitSaurus

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I’m only okay with Spirit promotions because I view Spirits as the successor to what trophies were albeit they serve a somewhat different purpose. I made an entire post about it earlier in the week and stated that if Lucas and Mewtwo having trophies on Wii U/3DS didn’t stop them from becoming DLC, I don’t see why Spirits would stop Ribbon Girl or Min Min.

With Assist Trophies, we’ve only ever seen promotions in next installments ala Little Mac from Brawl to Wii U/3DS or Isabelle from Wii U/3DS to Ultimate.

If it’s Spring Man, great. I honestly don’t care that much. I won’t be upset or angry, and I’ll happily admit I was wrong about the whole situation. It’s just unprecedented at this point to have an Assist upgraded in the same game.

I’m more so opposed to it because of the can of worms it will open in regards to future Smash speculation.

A new character is new character. As long as their inclusion is warranted I’m fine. I am just personally rooting for Min Min with Ribbon Girl being a close second and the more likely choice between the two I want if I’m being honest with myself.
I mean... there is no can of worms, really. All it means is that two or three Spirit/AT characters will now be considered once again when it comes to speculation. That's about it.

I've yet to see any Rex, Isaac or Waluigi fan screaming "HE'S IN!" at the top of their lungs because of ARMS. Some are hopeful, yes, but unless you go to very specific places on the internet, you actually have to make an effort to find people being toxic about the possibility of AT promotions.
 

Scoliosis Jones

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I think the issue with "patterns" or "theories" when it comes to Smash is that plenty of it is guided by confirmation bias, and in some cases ignoring aspects of how characters are chosen, or the objective examples that can argue precedent and other points.

For example, the point that I've made about protagonist and/or mascot first. It's suggested because, objectively speaking, every single series or entry in an already repped series has taken the main character or "mascot" of the series/game they come from. That's 30ish data points for that example. If it were science, it would be 30 trials for a given hypothesis, all with the same outcomes. In that sense, it's pretty damning. However, this isn't really "science". That said, even if we do get someone like Max Brass or Min Min it's an exception until it happens a few more times basically.

Even then, it could be a 4D chess move if Min-Min is to become the new mascot of ARMS and be monkey's paw of still getting the "mascot".

Another example of an argument with points to refer to is the DLC choices themselves. While I think it's notable to look at how the first pick is made to start off a pass, there are other factors at play as well. Any first party newcomer that has been a part of a DLC pack has been promotional in nature. They've effectively been tied to an upcoming game, or some sort of promotion. With Corrin and Byleth, they came from the newest Fire Emblem. ARMS is a bit different because the game itself is a few years old now. Despite that, it was tied to a demo of the game and, in my humble opinion, was used to strike up conversation about ARMS and bring attention to it and breathe a sort of new life.

Data points from DLC seem to suggest mainly protagonists/mascots as well. There's a reason why folks believe these things. It's not infallible, but I don't think it's something that should be inherently "run away with" because it could happen one time. Banjo is a western-origin 3rd party, but we still haven't gotten another one. I'm not sure that it won't be broken, but with 5 characters left after ARMS, I can't imagine it would result in a huge blowout of western 3rd parties.

Just something to chew on. Not all "patterns" are created equal, but that also doesn't mean that patterns should be discarded and not given the time of day.
 
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Michael the Spikester

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I think we can all agree now that the Pattern Theory has been broken. Another fan rule yet again dismissed by madman Sakurai.
 

Scoliosis Jones

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I think we can all agree now that the Pattern Theory has been broken. Another fan rule yet again dismissed by madman Sakurai.
That wasn't a fan rule. It was an observation based on something before us.

It was literally speculation.

EDIT: This is why I very, very much dislike how the term "fan rule" has been twisted to shut down basically any sort of interesting conversation.
 
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SMAASH! Puppy

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Just something to chew on. Not all "patterns" are created equal, but that also doesn't mean that patterns should be discarded and not given the time of day.
It seems that most arguments are seen as an all or nothing deal and I don't really get why. Something unexpected happens? It's either a pure exception, or everything about the subject can be thrown out even though neither are often the case.
 

Nesysli

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I'm glad we'll finally get to see who the ARMS fighter is. Ngl, I really hope its someone other than Spring Man. Idk his design is so generic & boring compared to other characters like Helix & Min Min imo, he's such a regular saltine cracker main protagonist it hurts. No offense to those who are a fan of him but he's just kinda unappealing compared to the rest of the zany cast they can choose from
 

Speed Weed

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pfft

who even cares about the arms character

because it is OBVIOUS at this point that next up we are getting the objective best character in this entire pass

the one to finally unite the smash community for all eternity

possibly the best smash addition of all time, nay, the single greatest addition to any crossover

the one that smash truly isn't the biggest crossover without

ladies and gentlemen....

he's in.
Mvc2-amingo.jpg
 

MooMew64

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I wonder what their plans are for FP7. Directs are probably out for the rest of the year at this point and they aren't taking part in any gaming events this summer, so how will they drop the news about them? My guess is probably another Byleth-esque reveal.
 

DarthEnderX

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So based off what Scoliosis Jones said, in that he mentioned publishers, which third parties do you guys think have the highest chances, or just really want as a whole?
Want:
Ryu Hayabusa [Koei Tecmo]
Bill Rizer/Lance Bean [Konami]
Arthur [Capcom]
Kunio/Riki [ArcSys]
SV-001 Metal Slug [SNK]
Kazuma Kiryu [Sega]
Nightmare [Namco]

Expect:
**** if I know.
 

Scoliosis Jones

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Really, the argument of, "HAH THAT'S JUST A DUMB FAN RULE" is so clearly not actually used as an intellectual idea but more of a way to shut down ideas that fans don't subscribe to. It's been that way from the beginning of the rise in use of the term.

Do I like when people think certain ideas are infallible? No. However, that's not even what's happening.

I'll provide another example that might make it seem more obvious. Let's say a guy who has proven an idea he has says, "Hey based on this stuff that I tried out, it turns out that X leads to Y! What do you think?" If the response was like, "Nuh uh, FAN RULES SUCK!" the equivalent would be someone saying, "I don't like that outcome, so I'm not going to listen to you!"

Meanwhile, any time somebody types the phrase "fan rule" it is almost never followed with a basis as to why the "fan rule" in question has nothing to base itself on. It's just a phrase to cast something aside. It's toxic. It adds nothing to discussion but doubt in the name of, "I don't want that, so I'm not going to respond intellectually. I'm just going to pretend it doesn't exist by putting my fingers in my ears and screeching LALALALALALALA".

Maybe I shouldn't be as invested in this particular point, but man do I dislike the way the discourse has changed since everybody thinks they can shut down ideas by just typing, "It's a fan rule". At least come up with an argument as to why you don't think said point will happen rather than being disrespectful and boiling down interesting ideas to something as mind-numbing as this false-narrative of "fan rules dictate what I can / can't talk about"

If you want a character to be taken more seriously, then present a convincing case for that character that isn't just "I want them and other people do too". That on its own will not convince other people.
 
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Speed Weed

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I mean, really, the argument of, "HAH THAT'S JUST A DUMB FAN RULE" is so clearly not actually used as an intellectual idea but more of a way to shut down ideas that fans don't subscribe to. It's been that way from the beginning of the rise in use of the term.

Do I like when people think certain ideas are infallible? No. However, that's not even what's happening.

I'll provide another example that might make it seem more obvious. Let's say a guy who has proven an idea he has says, "Hey based on this stuff that I tried out, it turns out that X leads to Y! What do you think?" If the response was like, "Nuh uh, FAN RULES SUCK!" the equivalent would be someone saying, "I don't like that outcome, so I'm not going to listen to you!"

Meanwhile, any time somebody types the phrase "fan rule" it is almost never followed with a basis as to why the "fan rule" in question has nothing to base itself on. It's just a phrase to cast something aside. It's toxic. It adds nothing to discussion but doubt in the name of, "I don't want that, so I'm not going to respond intellectually. I'm just going to pretend it doesn't exist by putting my fingers in my ears and screeching LALALALALALALA".

Maybe I shouldn't be as invested in this particular point, but man do I dislike the way the discourse has changed since everybody thinks they can shut down ideas by just typing, "It's a fan rule". At least come up with an argument as to why you don't think said point will happen.
i feel like there's a difference to be set between speculating and actual fan rules

one is "hey what if this happens and this doesn't" and the other is "NUH-UH THAT CAN'T HAPPEN"
 

MooMew64

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Really, the argument of, "HAH THAT'S JUST A DUMB FAN RULE" is so clearly not actually used as an intellectual idea but more of a way to shut down ideas that fans don't subscribe to. It's been that way from the beginning of the rise in use of the term.

Do I like when people think certain ideas are infallible? No. However, that's not even what's happening.

I'll provide another example that might make it seem more obvious. Let's say a guy who has proven an idea he has says, "Hey based on this stuff that I tried out, it turns out that X leads to Y! What do you think?" If the response was like, "Nuh uh, FAN RULES SUCK!" the equivalent would be someone saying, "I don't like that outcome, so I'm not going to listen to you!"

Meanwhile, any time somebody types the phrase "fan rule" it is almost never followed with a basis as to why the "fan rule" in question has nothing to base itself on. It's just a phrase to cast something aside. It's toxic. It adds nothing to discussion but doubt in the name of, "I don't want that, so I'm not going to respond intellectually. I'm just going to pretend it doesn't exist by putting my fingers in my ears and screeching LALALALALALALA".

Maybe I shouldn't be as invested in this particular point, but man do I dislike the way the discourse has changed since everybody thinks they can shut down ideas by just typing, "It's a fan rule". At least come up with an argument as to why you don't think said point will happen.
Yeah, discussion has gotten really bad as of late. You can't talk about anything or try to just have fun with an idea without someone just laying into you for not agreeing with them. Smash discussions have always had problems with toxicity, but it seems like Ultimate DLC speculation has really peaked in terms of that toxicity. It's nuts. Like, how hard is it to calmly and politely explain WHY you disagree about something?
 

Scoliosis Jones

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i feel like there's a difference to be set between speculating and actual fan rules

one is "hey what if this happens and this doesn't" and the other is "NUH-UH THAT CAN'T HAPPEN"
My question is though, who exactly is saying certain things "can't happen"?

It almost seems like there's some sort of boogeyman created to make it seem like particular people don't care about what others have to say. That may be true on certain sites, but I frankly haven't seen much of it here.
 

-crump-

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Spring Man would prove the utter pointlessness of the last 4 months of speculation, BUT I will gladly get on the Boi-oi-oi-oing Bus if it means there is a chance for other AT promotions. (Shovel Knight and Waluigi)
 

Speed Weed

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My question is though, who exactly is saying certain things "can't happen"?

It almost seems like there's some sort of boogeyman created to make it seem like particular people don't care about what others have to say. That may be true on certain sites, but I frankly haven't seen much of it here.
oh it definitely happens

it's become a lot less frequent as of late (thank goodness) but it's a thing
 

Cosmic77

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Noticing patterns and basing your predictions on them is fine, but it becomes an issue when people give those patterns so much power that they start ruling out or claiming characters are deconfirmed just because of them.

That's a pet peeve of mine, and it's happened a lot with the DLC we've gotten so far. Stuff like, "Only new franchises", "First pass is all third-party", and, "AT/Spirits deconfirm." That's not to say that I think these patterns should've been immediately discredited, but I see a lot of people take advantage of them to throw certain characters under the bus who could actually have a decent chance of getting in. Like ARMS for example. Trying to start a conversation about ARMS was basically impossible before March just because it contradicted too many patterns that people thought were practically infallible.
 
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KingDoop

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Something the dlc has been missing so far is a super heavyweight. So with that in mind I'm hoping for Max Brass
 

KingofPhantoms

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I don't know, most of the time I see people using the "fan rule" term, I see it being used as a way for people to point out that patterns and consistencies noticed and studied by fans aren't actual laws set by Sakurai himself and that they aren't necessarily going to remain consistent or, otherwise to suggest an outcome generally seen as likely won't necessarily come true, instead of being used as some kind of end-all be-all dismissal that screams "fan rule, therefore not happening".

I do see the term seeing some usage as a perceived strong argument and dismissal of other people's arguments or desires, but in my experience that's pretty uncommon. I can remember it initially popping up around as early 2013/2014, and it certainly didn't start out as a completely dismissive statement that it seems to have partly developed into, now.
 

Guynamednelson

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Where is Ribbon Girl have a fully 3D rendered model that performs an action in Ultimate?

If you’re referring to the Mii Costume, that’s laughable because it’s a costume. It’s not actually Ribbon Girl.
It's laughable to go "they can't have a model already...okay, but they can't have animations already made for them".
 

CaptainAmerica

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Well, it finally happened...

I'm still in 'wait-and-see' mode. I've never played ARMS, so I'm not super hype, but it really does seem like a great choice for Smash so I'm not disappointed either. I know I'll likely be getting the character eventually.

As someone who's never played ARMS, I'd honestly prefer the boxart dude. It seems weird enough to take a nuanced side character over the white bread character they use to promote the game. And yeah, he seems like he has a fun personality. Sure, mascots can change over time - if you want to go back to that MK Scorpion vs. Liu Kang example people keep talking about, Scorpion was pretty much a nobody in MK1. But by MK11, it's obvious he's the face of the game. Heck, Smash has even moved from its 'main protagonist' being Mario to Kirby (and Pit briefly), but Mario's been the most prominent on every boxart, with Link close behind.

I just still find it suspicious that they've dropped "someone from ARMS" since January instead of just offering a name. It's not like that would completely kill off people talking about the game - that's what we had between the October WiiU presentation and Mewtwo's release in April. Besides, there are very few people who will analyze every word in detail, we just think there's a lot since that's all we do here. I'm sure most people are like "oh boy, ARMS! Now what's happening on my Animal Crossing island?"

All of that really makes me think that we've got a Hero situation incoming. A bunch of characters who people like? Check. Most use the same skeleton and share a basic moveset? Check. Everyone can say they like at least one of the characters? Check. Honestly the only people who would be annoyed about that would be the people who think it's a 'bastardization' of their favorite character since they'd take away special abilities like Ninjara's teleport or Min's kicks ... which aren't the main focus of ARMS in the first place, so it's not guaranteed that we'd even get those in the first place.

I know, "ugh, then why didn't we get Ryu/Ken/Ayuma/Guile all sharing a kit!!!!11!1", but Street Fighter is an established franchise, and I was honestly surprised that Sm4sh didn't do that with Ken at least. ARMS has all of one game under its belt, so there's still time for it to grow and diverge. Again look at MK: in MK1, there weren't really too many differences between Scorpion/Sub Zero or even Cage/Liu Kang. By MK11, it's a different story.
 

Banado_Boy

Smash Apprentice
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Banado_Boy
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There is a significant difference between the character select screen background for Spring Man and his other background, mainly that the white swirls are more closer to the magenta swirl and the white swirls don’t converge until the tip. Also, one of the magenta swirls fade in the former background.
Yeah, looking back, the patterns are kinda different. The swirls are much closer on the character select version of the pattern.

I did end up finding the same generic yellow background on Prima Games though (top one without white swirls), so yeah, I still think the background shouldn’t really be taken as a “hint”.

A5F806FF-B93E-48CD-8028-C475ADD9D170.jpeg


5A767B83-290E-4E95-B34B-61A89A112743.jpeg
 

Cosmic77

Smash Hero
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One last thing I'd like to say about patterns and fan rules is that I've seen the worst of both sides. We have the people who plug their ears and ignore anything and everything because of the perceived notion that all fan rules are bad, but we also have the people who abuse these patterns and rules to "deconfirm" characters left and right, effectively shunning said characters out of the conversation. Like I said before, ARMS was a victim of this.

Both sides definitely exist, and I while I know a lot of people probably remember one side more than the other due to their own bad experiences with them, I don't think it's fair to antagonize one side and act like the other is practically nonexistent.
 
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